Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 052004
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
304 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

THE MAIN IMPACTS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS
TODAY AND A COLD FRONT TOMORROW.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...COMBINED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND
SOUTHWESTERLY MIXING WINDS...HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES THIS
AFTERNOON TO RISE RAPIDLY INTO THE 80S AND LOW 90S. THESE WARM
TEMPERATURES HAVE FURTHER EXACERBATED DRY BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS. WITH VERY DRY AIR MIXING DOWN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
HAVE PLUMMETED INTO THE TEENS AND LOW 20S. WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN A
BIT BREEZY ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY. THIS IS WHAT PROMPTED THE
ISSUANCE OF THE RED FLAG WARNING. WIND SPEEDS AROUND 20
MPH...COMBINED WITH HUMIDITY 20 PERCENT OR LESS AND DRY FUELS IS
PRODUCING CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE JAMES VALLEY.

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS
WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH. TOMORROW
AFTERNOON MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY AROUND 20 PERCENT IS EXPECTED
IN NORTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BY THIS TIME THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD HAVE
PASSED TO THE SOUTH. THEREFORE...THESE AREAS MAY ESCAPE CRITICAL
FIRE CONDITIONS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A MAINLY DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE...WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...WITH A
PERSISTANT DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANY
PRECIPITATION ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND IS RATHER MINIMAL.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF
FRIDAYS COLD FRONT. HOWEVER... PLEASANT TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
EXPECTED WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. DRY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN.

CHANGES APPEAR ON THE HORIZON FOR THE START THE WORK WEEK AS
AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST DEEPENS OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION THIS WEEKEND AND LIFTS INTO THE PLAINS ON
MONDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS.

CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEK AS THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE THE LOW REMAINING
NEARBY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR CIGS/VSBYS NEXT 24HR. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST
NORTH DAKOTA INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THURSDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN
A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ005-013-023-
025-037-048-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AJ


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