Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 291508
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1008 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

H700-H500 COOL POCKET ACROSS SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA ALONG WITH
MID LEVEL HIGH RH SUPPORTING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST. THE
TQ STABILITY INDEX NOT PARTICULARLY SUPPORTIVE OF CONGESTED CU
FORMATION ALTHOUGH SOME CU MAY FORM. WILL NOT ADD ANY POPS FOR
THIS FEATURE AT THIS TIME. CONTINUED BREEZY BUT WILL MAINLY ADD
CLOUDS TO FORECAST TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AREA RADARS HAVE INDICATED THAT RAIN SHOWERS HAVE ENDED OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE SO HAVE REMOVED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS IN
GOOD SHAPE AS WINDS ARE AGAIN STARTING TO INCREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW CIRCULATING OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL MANITOBA. VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SEEN OVER SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN
INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA IS REFLECTED AT THE SURFACE WITH A
BUBBLE/WEDGE OF 3HR (4MB) PRESSURE RISES. THIS AREA WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE
EAST TODAY WHILE CONTINUING TO NOSE INTO NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
AND THE NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY. BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA CURRENTLY EARLY THIS MORNING (20G30KT)...WILL
QUICKLY INCREASE AS MIXING ENSUES SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. NAM/GFS
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS ADVERTISE WINDS WITHIN MIXING LAYER/DRY ADIABATIC
LAYER NEAR 30KT...AND 40KT AT THE TOP OF THE LAYER THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. HENCE HAVE CONTINUED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR MOST OF CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA INCLUDING MOST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY. STANLEY RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS STILL SHOWING
SHOWERS IN THE FAR NORTH CENTRAL AND TURTLE MOUNTAINS. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS TREND DOWN THE SHOWERS EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE
ENDING THEM BY AROUND 15Z WEDNESDAY...AND HAVE TRENDED POPS IN
THIS DIRECTION. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE THERE AFTER...WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE ELSEWHERE TODAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S
NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH. A CLEAR SKY AND A LIGHT WIND IS FORECAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN CONUS BRINGING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER OUR AREA. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MAINLY DRY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. A
VARIETY OF WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH TO START NEXT
WEEK...BRINGING OCCASIONAL LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

DEEP LOW PRESSURE ACROSS MANITOBA WILL MAINTAIN A BRISK WESTERLY
WIND FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WIND GUSTS
TO 35KTS POSSIBLE 15Z-01Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ002>005-010>013-
019>023-025-034>037-048-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA



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