Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 220837

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
337 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

The focus in the short term will be the change to much cooler
weather with the arrival of autumn and the increasing chances for
showers and some thunderstorms.

This morning, thunderstorms have formed along a triple point
frontal system across a southeast North Dakota. Current trends
suggest the thunderstorms will move just east of Dickey County.

Showers have formed along a northeast to southwest jet stream over
western North Dakota and eastern Montana. A secondary cold front
will also be a focus for showers today. CAM models have become
excited about increasing showers across southwest into central
North Dakota today. Model soundings (RAP Model) indicate elevated
convection is possible with strong shear and weak to moderate
CAPE. This suggests increasing chances for thunderstorms during
the day. The soundings analogues dont hit on much for hail today
but the CAPE and shear are fairly impressive above the inversion.
The neighborhood probability updraft helicity remains marginal
for a severe weather outbreak and the best area is northeast this
afternoon/evening. Will not add severe weather to grids but one
or two strong storms will be mentioned in the weather story and
hazardous weather outlook.

Tonight scattered showers will be highlighted across the region as
the upper trough moves east and teh region will be in an active
southwest flow aloft.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 256 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

The main focus for the Long term will be cooler temperatures with
a good chance for showers Saturday and Sunday. The cool weather
will last at least through next Tuesday. Highs during this period
will be in the 50s and lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s. There could
be some patchy frost during this period. Chances for showers will
continue through Tuesday until the upper trough finally moves
through. Then moderating temperatures at least into the 60s are
expected with mainly dry weather for Wednesday and Thursday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

MVFR ceilings will lift northward into North Dakota after 12Z
Friday bringing MVFR ceilings to KJMS and KBIS by 15-18Z. MFVR
ceilings will also be possible for KDIK and KMOT after 18Z.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible over the TAF sites
through 12z...then more coverage with convection is expected as
scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop
around/after 12z, with chances of showers and thunderstorms
continuing through the day Friday.




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