Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 280535

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1235 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016

Issued at 1218 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016

The forecast challenge for tonight is fog. The 04Z RAP and HRRR
are a little more in-line with fog developing in north central
and eastern areas but overall the RAP and HRRR have not been
trending well.

Issued at 1015 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Forecast is on track, thus just blended observations to hourly
grids for this update.

Issued at 701 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

High res near term models backed off on fog a bit for tonight,
though will stay the course for now and maintain patchy fog as
inherited over my east and north central. Models trending to be
more favorable for fog development across the western Devils Lake
Basin, Turtle Mountains, and then across portions of the Souris
River Basin, where T/Td spreads are currently low. Already see vis
restrictions over northeastern ND. The James River Valley will
see the best potential for fog through 08-10Z before winds turn
more west/southwesterly.

Remainder of the forecast remains on track, relatively mild night
with BKN-OVC upper level clouds


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

Concerns for the short term include fog across portions of the
east tonight. At 2 pm CDT a warm front extended from low pressure
centered in southern Saskatchewan through central North Dakota
with a cold front entering central Montana.

The HRRR and RAP models show the cool moist boundary layer air
remaining in place this evening across east central North Dakota.
Areas of fog and stratus are just breaking up in the afternoon
mixing with the models forecasting a return of the clouds and fog
this evening. Some uncertainty as the NAM/GFS not as certain on
fog but will add patchy fog and clouds in the evening and early
overnight east. Lows tonight will be relatively mild in the 40s
due to the general cloudiness.

On Friday the cold front will move through bringing northwest
winds and cooler air. This will also add some clouds with
cooling northwest , Highs will be in the 50s northwest to the
lower 70s southeast.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Thu Oct 27 2016

The extended will remain mildly progressive through the period
beginning with a series of shortwave troughs Saturday with another
Sunday into Monday. A long wave eastern Pacific trough will move
onshore pushing the ridge east and eventually trending toward a
split flow aloft by Wednesday and Thursday. The chance for showers
on Saturday will be across the far south with cooler air moving
through the region. A better chance for showers will be Sunday
night and Monday with the next shortwave. Temperatures should be
mild enough for rain showers although a rain/snow mix may be
possible far northwest Monday morning. Dry and seasonable weather
the rest of the week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)

Issued at 1230 AM CDT Fri Oct 28 2016

Patchy fog will continue overnight over the James River Valley
into portions of north central North Dakota. Otherwise...most
locations will remain VFR today. Lower cigs will start to work
into the area Friday evening, with some locations dropping to MVFR
levels over western and north central North Dakota.




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