325
FXUS63 KBIS 140830
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
330 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There will be daily chances for showers and thunderstorms
  through the week.

- Near average temperatures are expected this week, with highs
  in the mid 60s to upper 70s and lows in the 40s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 327 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are moving across
the state early this morning, as a mid-level shortwave trough and
associated surface cold front moves through from west to east. While
the thunderstorms were a bit more prevalent a few hours ago, the
instability has really taken a nosedive overnight, so the risk for
strong to severe storm development has decreased quite a bit. Some
small hail may be possible in any brief pulse-ups, but apart from
that, these storms should mostly just bring some rain showers and
gusty winds, along with lightning. Lows this morning will be in the
upper 40s to lower 50s. Upper level smoke from the Canadian
wildfires is still present, and may make skies somewhat hazy at
times.

Another shortwave is expected to pass across the Dakotas through the
day today, which should bring continued chances for precipitation
across much of the area. A majority of the southwest and central
portions of North Dakota will see 40 to 60% chances for rain, with
these chances decreasing heading to the northwest. There will also
be a 20 to 35% chance for thunderstorms across much of the area
today as well, as current short-term deterministic guidance suggests
a corridor of 1000-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE extending northward from
South Dakota towards the Canadian border. However, 0-3 km shear
values only max out around 10 to 15 kts, helping limit any severe
storm threat. There could be very pulse-y strong storms with gusty
winds and small hail, but these will be short lived should anything
develop. The SPC continues to advertise just a General Thunderstorm
risk area for much of the area. Otherwise, high temperatures today
are forecast to largely be in the upper 60s to lower 70s, with
southeasterly winds around 10 to 15 mph, veering through the day and
becoming mostly northwesterly by the late evening hours.

As the aforementioned shortwave exits the area tonight and into
Wednesday morning, the active pattern is expected to continue, with
additional mid-level shortwaves passing across the area from the
west. Prominent mid-level ridging off the Pacific coastline will
keep us in this pattern through the rest of the week, with near
daily chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms expected.
Deterministic guidance suggests similar conditions for each day when
it comes to instability and shear, with the idea being that there
will be daily chances for thunderstorms, but with minimal chances
for any of these thunderstorms to become strong to severe. Daytime
high temperatures are expected to remain in the upper 60s to mid 70s
across the area through the week and into the weekend, with
overnight lows largely in the 40s. Tentative signs of the active
pattern breaking down are beginning to show in the forecast for the
start of next week, but model disagreement is quite high in terms of
the upper-level flow setup, so we will continue to monitor when
exactly this active pattern will end.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024

Showers and thunderstorms are moving through the area tonight,
occasionally bringing about reductions in visibility due to heavy
rainfall, low ceilings, and gusty and erratic winds. Every terminal
with the exception of KJMS will see occasional periods of MVFR
conditions with storms that pass over or near them, along with
erratic winds that could gust into the 25 to 30 kt range. KMOT,
KDIK, and KBIS may see some low level wind shear for the next few
hours, with 1 kft southeasterly shear values near 40 kts. As these
storms move east, the prevailing southeasterly winds should increase
and become a bit gusty, especially across the central, with gusts up
to 25 kts possible. Winds will shift to become more northerly
through the second half of the TAF period, as the surface boundary
continues to make its way through the state. Showers and
thunderstorms will continue through the rest of the TAF period, with
occasional periods of MVFR conditions associated with them across
all terminals.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Besson
AVIATION...Besson