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000
FXUS63 KABR 210006 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
706 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...
CURRENT RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF TSTORMS MOVING THROUGH LYMAN AND
SOUTHERN HUGHES COUNTY. LIKE THE HRRR DEPICTION OF CONVECTIVE
PROGRESSION EASTWARD SO NUDGED POPS A BIT TO REFLECT THE 21Z
GUIDANCE. EVEN THOUGH RADAR IS ALSO SHOWING SOME WEAK RETURNS
ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA KEPT THIS AREA DRY. DUE TO THE 35 DEGREE
DEWPOINT SPREAD AND THE LACK OF ANY STRONG ECHOES THIS ACTIVITY IS
LIKELY ALL VIRGA IN THE EAST FOR NOW.

DROPPED OVERNIGHT LOWS ABOUT FIVE DEGREES IN THE NORTH...FROM THE
JAMES VALLEY TO CORSON COUNTY. EVEN WITH MOISTER AID ADVECTING IN
FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE SOUTH...NORTHERN UPSTREAM OBS HAVE
DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO TANK AFTER SUNSET SINCE WINDS ARE LIGHT.

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.




&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT WILL TRACK
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. FAIRLY WARM TEMPERATURES HAVE AIDED IN A
LITTLE INSTABILITY DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
STATE...AND MAY SEE SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
EVENING OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA. MOISTURE IS PRETTY LIMITED...SO NOT
ANTICIPATING ANY SEVERE WEATHER. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE
EXITING LOW ON MONDAY. EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT
COOLER...DECENT MIXING WILL BRING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TO
THE EASTERN CWA...AND WITH THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE...THE POTENTIAL
IS THERE FOR FIRE WEATHER ISSUES. THEREFORE...HAVE ISSUED A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR THE EASTERN CWA...INCLUDING THE TWO MINNESOTA
COUNTIES FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT...THINGS STAY QUIET
UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN WARM FRONTAL RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO AFFECT
MUCH OF THE CWA AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING LOW...ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST.

WITH THE HIGH DOMINANT ON MONDAY...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS IN THE
60S WILL BE COMMON FOR HIGHS...WITH JUST A BIT OF A RISE IN HIGHS
ON TUESDAY...MAINLY MID 60S TO LOWER 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE 40S TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH COOLER 30S
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT.




.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. TIMING OF PRECIP WILL BE TRICKY AS
DETAILS DIFFER ALONG WITH THE PRESENCE OF A DRY SLOT WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW PUSHES INTO NE MT. HAVE TRENDED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HIGHEST IN THE EAST WHERE DRY SLOT INFLUENCE
APPEARS TO BE NOT AS STRONG. MODELS DIFFER ON WHAT THIS UPPER WILL
DO...EC HAS IT WEAKENING THEN REORGANIZING IT OVER NORTHERN MN.
EXPECT SHOWERS ON BACKSIDE OF LOW FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE LOW ON
POSITION OF DRY SLOT AT THIS TIME BUT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS
IT WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE ON WHAT AREAS STAY ON THE DRIER SIDE.

THE UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO POP BACK INTO THE AREA SATURDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AGAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AS FLOW QUICKLY BECOMES SOUTHWEST ALOFT. TEMPS
WILL HAVE A HARD TIME REBOUNDING IN THE RIDGE WITH COOLER AIR IN
PLACE AND A QUICK RETURN OF CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT TURNING WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST. DID ADD SOME VCTS TO KPIR AS STORMS HAVE BEEN
DEVELOPING AND MOVING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE METAR SITE. STORMS
SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. NO
RESTRICTIONS TO CIGS OR VSBYS ARE ANTICIPATED AND ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE VCNTY OF KATY AFT 03Z. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY IN THE MORNING AT 15 TO 25 KTS AT ALL SITES BY
LATE MORNING MONDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR PRAIRIE COTEAU-RED RIVER VALLEY-UPPER JAMES RIVER.

MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
     FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...WISE
SHORT TERM...PARKIN
LONG TERM...SCARLETT
AVIATION...WISE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN