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000
FXUS63 KABR 211857
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
157 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 152 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

Forecast challenges surround severe thunderstorm potential coverage
and timing through late this evening, along with critical fire
weather potential on Saturday.

Currently, temperatures are warming through the 80s and 90s on light
winds and a mostly sunny sky. With high dewpoint temperatures
combining with the hot temperatures, seeing heat indices climbing
into advisory range this afternoon. Lots of boundaries noted on the
regional 88D display. There`s also a synoptic scale cold frontal
boundary beginning to work into the region from the northwest.
Plenty of heat-of-the-day instability showing up on meso-analysis
right now. And, with no lack of deep layer shear and a favorable
upper level jet right entrance region moving over the cwa, probably
won`t take too much longer for strong to severe convection
(supercellular) to get going. The Heat Advisory continues through 8
PM CDT.

Tonight: latest trends in CAM solutions supports the bigger picture
synoptic-scale setup in that they begin to force convective
initiation on the cold frontal boundary moving through the region by
between 22Z and 00Z between Bismarck and Mobridge and spread strong
to severe convection southeast through the forecast area. Large hail
and damaging winds seem to be the primary threat types. If current
convective trends in the CAMs are halfway right, expecting to see
thunderstorm activity waning by 06Z or 07Z as it departs the far
eastern forecast zones. Still concerned about the much lower LCL
heights that set up across the eastern forecast zones this evening.
Not sure the low-level shear will be all that favorable for
tornadoes. Perhaps just a few hp supercells with really low cloud
bases.

Saturday: The cold front is forecast to be well east of the cwa as
the sun comes up Saturday. Breezy to, at times, windy northwest
winds will befall the region. Across central and north central South
Dakota, these post frontal northwest winds will usher much drier air
into the region before it`s drawing cooler air into the region.
Relative humidity values should tank across the cwa on Saturday, but
especially across extreme drought stricken central and north central
South Dakota where fine fuels will easily burn, even though there
have been a few rounds of rainfall in those areas over the past
week. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for fire weather zones 267,
268, 269 and 270 in South Dakota for Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Evening through Friday)
Issued at 152 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

Sunday-Monday: Upper levels will see building heights as a ridge
moves overhead, ahead of an upper trough that will move across the
Canadian prairie provinces. Sunday will feature drier air and mild
temperatures, which will extend into early Monday. Moisture and
hotter air will pull into the CWA for the afternoon with 850mb
temperatures increasing to +30C into our central counties. Low level
flow also shows a southwest component so the Pierre area will
experience favorable mixing. As such - increased high temperatures
over blended guidance. 700mb temperatures increase as well, but
models support widespread heat of the afternoon/surface boundary
convection.

Tuesday: Cold front will pass through the area during the day, with
850mb dewpoints down to +1 to +3C and 850mb temperatures from +13 to
+19C - so dry and mild. The front will stall across southern South
Dakota Tuesday night.

Wednesday: The stalled front will begins to lift back northwards
during the day, with a southern stream jet of 60kts and a fetch from
the tropical Pacific. 700mb temperatures are only around +10C so
that shouldn`t inhibit convection and thus blended guidance in the
50 percent range is adequate.

Thursday on...anticipate the upper ridge to continue to build across
plains with increasing temperatures and dry conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1253 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

It`s possible that later this evening and for several hours
overnight (until a frontal passage switches winds around to the
northwest and starts drying out the boundary layer), some sub-vfr
stratus clouds could develop across northeast South Dakota into
west central MN (including the KATY terminal, and maybe even the
KABR terminal). Otherwise, flying weather is expected to be good
VFR except in/near any thunderstorms that get going later today
into tonight. Large hail, damaging winds and torrential rainfall
may accompany convective activity over the next 12 hours or so.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday afternoon through Saturday
     evening for SDZ267>270.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for
     SDZ016>018-033>037-045-048-051.

MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Dorn
LONG TERM...Connelly
AVIATION...Dorn