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000
FXUS63 KABR 122341 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
541 PM CST THU DEC 12 2013

.UPDATE...

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING

MOST OF THE FOCUS THIS PERIOD IS ON THE ARCTIC FRONT BACKING IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST. ALREADY SEEING A STRATUS LAYER AND LIGHT SNOW
IN NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA WHICH MODELS HAVE PEGGED THE LAST FEW
DAYS. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ABOUT 24 HOURS WHERE PROFILES ARE
SATURATED AND WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THE LACK OF
APPRECIABLE LIFT SUGGESTS ONLY VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATION...MAINLY AN
EFFECT OF THE DURATION AS THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY BEGINS TO SLIP BACK
EAST SATURDAY PM.

WITH H925 TEMPERATURES OF -15 TO -18C...EXPECTING A DIURNAL
RANGE OF ONLY A FEW DEGREES THANKS TO THE STRATUS LAYER. THIS
WOULD PUT HIGHS AND LOWS BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AT ONLY
BETWEEN 0 AND 10F UNDER THE CORE OF COLDEST AIR. ACROSS THE
WEST...ALONG THE FRINGE OF THE STRATUS...A BIT MORE DIURNAL
VARIATION CAN BE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE MODELS AND GFS ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW A TRANSITION IN THE
LONG WAVE PATTERN WITH A WARM UP TO NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. ON SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WITH NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL HIGHS ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER AND WEST. A WARM FRONT
ACROSS THIS REGION WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT
BRINGING WINDS AROUND FROM SOUTH SOUTHWEST TO WEST NORTHWEST. THE
WARM FRONT WILL ALSO BRING QUITE A FEW CLOUDS TO THE CWA ALONG
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW EAST IN THE CWA ON SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY IN THE LONG TERM AS A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES TO THE NORTH OF OUR REGION WITH
BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOPING. EXPECT SOME GOOD MIXING
ON MONDAY AS THE SNOW COVER IS NOT THAT DEEP. WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 30S TO AROUND 40 DEGREES...EXPECT SOME OF THE SNOW TO
DISAPPEAR. THE MILD WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. TUESDAY SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO
WARM INTO THE MID 20S TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS THE CWA.

THE MODELS THEN DIVERGE IN THE THEIR SOLUTIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.
THEY GENERALLY SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW GOING TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AS UPPER LOW PRESSURE TROUGHING DROPS INTO THE WESTERN
US AND THEN PROGRESSES EAST TOWARDS OUR REGION. THE EC AND GFS
WERE QUITE DIFFERENT WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH THIS UPPER LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT SURFACE FEATURES. EXPECT...TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY TO BE DRY WITH SOME WAA LIGHT SNOW MOVING IN FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE GFS SHOWS SOME QPF OVER OUR
REGION WHILE THE EC DOES NOT. WHILE THE EC SHOWS MUCH MORE WIND
AND COLD COMING IN FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HAVE IN
CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW FOR THIS TIME PERIOD AND WILL LOOK FOR
BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR WAA CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY BE REPLACED BY IFR/MVFR STRATUS CLOUDS
LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY DROPS INTO THE REGION.
LIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL COME AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST AND INCREASE
SOME THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH.
SINCE THE STRATUS WILL BE IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION... WE MAY HAVE
SOME LIGHT SNOW MOVE IN ON FRIDAY MORNING MAINLY AFFECTING ABR AND
ATY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SD
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...SD

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN