Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 270525 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1125 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1123 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

See updated aviation discussion below.


UPDATE Issued at 915 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

Still a few echoes showing up on radar across parts of the
northern CWA, so will keep small pops in for at least a few more
hours. No changes made to winds or temperatures at this time.

&&


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 240 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

An area of low pressure currently over southwest ND will slide
eastward some tonight. A few models suggest light snow over ND with
this system. No pcpn is expected for this CWA. This system will
leave behind a trailing cold front which should be draped east,
west across the region. With a developing low pressure system over
western South Dakota on Monday, the cold front should lift northward
as a warm front with temps climbing into the 40s for most of this
CWA. The GFS shows the warm front along the ND/SD border with sharp
temperature contrast. If the front stalls over this CWA then
temperatures could be as much as 10 degrees cooler.


.LONG TERM...(Monday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 240 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

A couple of systems are expected to affect the region during the
forecast period. The first system is expected to cross the Rockies,
and move into the region late Monday night and Tuesday. PV/trop
progs indicated that this system is somewhat compact, but perhaps
fairly strong given the trop fold predicted with the wave. H7 theta-
e progs also show a nice theta-e ridge traversing the region, and
even becoming somewhat of a trowal by later Tuesday as the system
exits into MN. Most of the models (CAMS included) have trended north
with this system over the last few runs, so increase in QPF is fully
accepted.  Up to a couple inches of snow looks quite possible.  Per
top down grids, there is some potential for mixed pcpn Monday night,
but mainly toward our border areas of the far south and southeast
CWA, so will forego mention for now given lack of sig coverage area.
This is something to watch for though in subsequent runs, or any
shift north in the storm movement.

The next system comes through Wednesday night and Thursday, with
perhaps another round of light snow for the eastern CWA. This storm
looks more like the classic NW flow clipper, and should move through
fairly quickly.  Temperatures overall should favor near to slightly
below normal early in the period, but then will likely trend to
above and much above normal by the end of the work week as a mild
airmass gets pulled east off the Rockies, and into the Plains.

&&


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1123 PM CST Sun Feb 26 2017

VFR conditions will prevail across the area overnight and through
the day Monday.

&&


.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Parkin
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...Parkin


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