Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 312014

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
314 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 314 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

An upper level shortwave currently centered over the northern plains
will slowly work eastward tonight and Wednesday...with weak
northwest flow setting up behind it. The surface low associated with
the upper low will slide from North Dakota tonight to southwestern
Ontario by Wednesday afternoon. May still see a few showers across
the northern CWA this evening as precipitation wraps around the back
side of the low. By later tonight...these will come to an end as the
system exits the region. High pressure settles in on
Wednesday...keeping conditions dry and temperatures a bit below

Low temperatures tonight will range from the mid 40s northwest to
the lower 50s east. High temperatures on Wednesday will range from
the mid 60s northeast to the lower 70s southwest.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

The period begins with a weak shortwave tracking across the region
with light showers possible along I-90 Thursday afternoon. With this
being a low probability...will keep this time period dry. On
Thursday night into Friday...models generally agree with a fairly
strong upper level shortwave impacting the region from the
northwest. Base on model consensus and the Climatology Calibrated
Precipitation Analysis (CCPA)...have increased pops into the 30 to
50 percent range.

With steep low level lapse rates and weak instability...the eastern
half of the CWA could see additional showers and thunderstorms
Saturday afternoon. Dry and warm conditions can be expected beyond


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

VFR conditions will prevail across the area through the TAF
period. Breezy southwest winds in the 15 to 30 knot range can be
expected this afternoon and early evening...along with some light
rain showers across the northern portion of the CWA.


.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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