Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 040745
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
245 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY.
UNTIL THEN TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES COOLER TODAY /ESPECIALLY
OVER THE E HALF OF THE CWA/. THIS WILL BE THANKS TO THE CONTINUED
COOLING ABOVE THE SFC BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT SANK ACROSS SD
YESTERDAY AFTERNOON. STEADY N-NNW WINDS WILL LINGER OVER THE
E...CLOSER TO THE EXITING SFC LOW ACROSS LOWER MI. HIGH PRESSURE
STRETCHING ACROSS MANITOBA WILL EXTEND OVER E SD AND E NE AT 18Z
WEDNESDAY. EXPECT THE SFC HIGH TO SINK ACROSS NE AND INTO KS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OVER S CENTRAL CANADA. LOOK
FOR THE NEARLY CONSTANT N-NW WINDS TO SWITCH OUT OF THE SW LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY. THIS WILL HELP USHER IN WARMER AIR...WITH
TEMPS RETURNING TO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
850MB TEMPS REBOUND INTO 15-17C RANGE. COMPARED TO THE LAST SEVERAL
NIGHTS...LOWS WILL BE MUCH WARMER THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY
MORNING...FALLING INTO THE LOW 50S. THE WAA WILL CONTINUE FOR AT
LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY...AS THE SFC LOW OVER S CENTRAL
CANADA MOVES TO ONTARIO...AND THE COLD FRONT SINKS ACROSS ND BY
12Z...AND OVER THE ABR AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AFTER LOOKING AT THE
INSTABILITY...WILL KEEP THE TS POTENTIAL IN FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO GET DAMPENED FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. WILL SEE THE RIDGE
BUILD BACK ON SATURDAY...THEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST WITH WEAK ENERGY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE END
OF THE PERIOD. A SURFACE FRONT WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF THE CWA FRIDAY
EVENING...WITH PRECIPITATION ALONG AND BEHIND IT FRIDAY NIGHT.
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS IN
BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT...THEN WILL SEE INCREASING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS SLOWLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODEL BRINGING
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA INTO NEXT WEEK...WHILE THE GFS AND GEM
HAVE BEEN TRENDING FURTHER SOUTH. WILL KEEP A SMALL POP IN THROUGH
THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD FOR NOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE LESSENING CHANCES WITH EACH NEW MODEL RUN.

COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE EXITING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WILL
SETTLE IN THROUGH THE PERIOD. GENERALLY LOOKING AT DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE 60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...PARKIN



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