Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 221231
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
831 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY WHILE SLOWLY TRACKING NORTHEAST OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. COOL AND UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS AND A
SLOW WARMING TREND THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE AS OF 830 AM EDT...ISOLD TSTMS STILL ONGOING ACROSS THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND FAR SE VA AS OF 12Z. ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE TO WARRANT MENTION OF ISOLD TSTMS ACROSS THESE
AREAS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE CENTER OF THE CLOSED LOW
SHIFTS EAST AND OFFSHORE. HAVE MADE THAT ADJUSTED TO THE FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO SHOW BEST CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS (I-95 CORRIDOR) THROUGH THE
MORNING...THEN SHIFTING FARTHER EAST TO THE EASTERN SHORE THIS
AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS ~1007 MB SFC LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENING OFF THE SE VA/NE NC COAST...WITH STRONG UPPER
LOW CENTERED OVER WEST CENTRAL VA. AREA OF SHOWERS OVERSPREADING
PIEDMONT EARLY THIS MORNING UNDER THE COLD POOL ALOFT...WITH
ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS PUSHING OFF THE SE
VA/NE NC COAST ASSOCIATED W/ SFC COLD FRONT AND WIND SHIFT
BOUNDARY. LATEST RAP AND SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE ON THE ORDER
OF 300-500 J/KG AS OF 09Z...SHIFTING OFFSHORE PRIOR TO 12Z SO WILL
MAINTAIN MENTION OF TSTMS ALONG THE COAST THROUGH THAT TIMEFRAME.
OTHERWISE...SHOULD BE TOO STABLE IN LOW LEVELS FOR ANY ADDITIONAL
TSTMS.

LATER TODAY...CLOSED UPPER LOW SLOWLY PUSHES ESE AND SHOULD BE
CENTERED OFFSHORE BY 15-18Z. WILL CARRY LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
(60-80%) POPS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA THROUGH LATE MORNING AS DEEP
MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE FAVORABLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD (CHC POPS
ACRS SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND INTERIOR NE NC WHERE LESS MOISTURE
RESIDES). AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS OFFSHORE...DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN TO 20% OR LESS
OVER SW ZONES...WHILE FAVORABLE LIFT AND MOISTURE PERSIST FARTHER
NORTH AND EAST. WILL MAINTAIN 60-80% POPS OVER THE ERN 1/2 TO 1/3
OF THE CWA THROUGH 20Z. CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO BREAK UP FROM THE
SW LATER IN THE AFTN...MAY SEE SOME PEEKS OF SUN ACRS SOUTH
CENTRAL VA BY MID- LATE AFTN BUT OVERALL IT WILL STAY BKN/OVC.
HAVE LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW MORE DEGREES GIVEN CURRENT READINGS
IN THE LOWER-MID 50S...GENLY NO BETTER THAN THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60 F FOR MOST AREAS...WARMEST AREAS WILL BE OVER THE FAR SOUTH
AND ON THE ERN SHORE WHERE LOWER 60S ARE FORECAST. OTHER FEATURE TO NOTE
WILL BE THE INCREASING NW WINDS BY AFTN AS THE SFC LOW INTENSIFIES
FAIRLY RAPIDLY OFF THE COAST. GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
BY LATER AFTN/EVENING (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST).

THE CLOSED LOW MOVES FARTHER NE TONIGHT. HIGH CHC TO LIKELY POPS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE ERN SHORE THIS EVENING...GENLY ONLY 20%-30%
POPS OR LOWER ELSEWHERE AFTER 00Z. DECREASING CLOUDS ARE ALSO
EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR VA/NC OVERNIGHT. REMAINING BREEZY TO
WINDY ESP NE SECTIONS. LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 40S ALONG AND WEST OF
I-95 TO THE LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT IN BETWEEN SUB 1000 MB SFC
LOW OFF LONG ISLAND AND 1020 MB SFC HIGH OVER THE OH/TN VALLEY.
NAM SOLUTION IS OUTLIER WITH RESPECT TO IT`S LOCATION OF THE SFC
LOW WELL NORTH OF OTHER MODELS ON THU. THUS...NAM WINDS ARE
LIGHTER DUE TO A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT. FAVOR WINDS CLOSER TO A
GFS/ECMWF BLEND...WHICH YIELDS  BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH ACRS THE ERN SHORE...25-30 MPH ELSEWHERE. A
20%-30% POP WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR THE ERN SHORE...DRY ELSEWHERE.
STILL ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT FOR
SKIES TO AVG OUT MOSTLY CLOUDY N/E TO PARTLY SUNNY S/W (MAYBE
MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE FAR SW). HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/AROUND 60 F
ON THE MD ERN SHORE...TO THE UPPER 60S FOR INTERIOR NE NC AND
SOUTH CENTRAL VA. MOSTLY CLEAR SW TO PARTLY CLOUDY NE THU NIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

LOW PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER NE AND AWAY FROM THE LOCAL AREA ON
FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR MAINLY SUNNY CONDS...DIMINISHING WINDS...AND
MILDER TEMPS. HIGH FRIDAY IN THE MID 60S NE TO AROUND 70 F SW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS WELL TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS
UPPER RIDGING EXPANDS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL US. A WEAK TROUGH
CLIPS THE NRN MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY NIGHT AND QUICKLY MOVES OFF THE
COAST SUNDAY. A HIGH AMPLITUDE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
ERN US MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE AXIS SHIFTING OFFSHORE BY
MIDWEEK. GIVEN THIS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND TREND UPWARD INTO THE LOW/MID BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY (PERHAPS WARMER TUESDAY). LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE
FROM THE LOW/MID 40S NW...TO THE LOW/MID 50S FOR SE COASTAL
LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LO PRES WILL DEVELOP OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST THIS MORNG...THEN
WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND AND CANADIAN MARITIME CSTS TODAY THRU FRI. UPR LVL LO
WILL SWING OVR THE AREA THEN OFF THE CST TODAY INTO THIS
EVENG...BRINGING LWR CIGS (MVFR/POSSIBLY IFR) AND -RA TO THE TAF
SITES. NW OR N WINDS WILL PICK UP LATER THIS MORNG AND REMAIN
RATHER STRONG AND GUSTY INTO TNGT MOST TAF SITES. -RA WILL LAST
THE LONGEST OVR THE LWR MD/VA ERN SHR. BREEZY/WINDY OVR ERN HALF
OF THE REGION THRU THU...AS STRONG LO GRADUALLY MOVES AWAY TO THE
NE. COULD STILL BE SHOWERS OVR LWR MD (SBY) ALSO. HI PRES AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR FRI AND SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
LO PRES WILL FORM OFF THE NRN MID ATLC CST THIS MORNG...THEN WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND AND
CANADIAN MARITIME CSTS TODAY THRU FRI. NW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO ARND 30 KT THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENG.
THEN...FM THIS EVENG THRU THU AFTN...GUSTS TO ARND 35 KT WILL BE
LIKELY OVR AT LEAST THE CHES BAY ZNS AND ON THE CSTL WTRS FM
FENWICK ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LGT. THUS...HAVE ISSUED SCA THIS
MORNING/AFTN RAMPING UP TO A GALE WARNING IN THESE LOCATIONS FOR THIS
EVENG INTO/THRU THU AFTN. OTHRWISE...EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS OVR THE
ENTIRE WTRS FM THIS MORNG INTO EARLY FRI MORNG...AS STRNG LO PRES
IS SLOW TO MOVE AWAY TO THE NE. WITH THE FLOW BEING OFFSHORE FM
THE NW...SEAS WOULD TEND TO STAY CAPPED AT 5-7 FT AND TIDAL
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. N/NW FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WITH SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT AND SEAS
SUBSIDING.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638-
     656-658.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ630>632-634-650-652-654.
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ630>632-634.
     GALE WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...JDM/LKB
SHORT TERM...JDM/LKB
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...TMG






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