Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 241440
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1040 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY...THEN
DISSIPATES ACROSS THE CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

...SURVEY TEAM HEADED TOWARD THE VA EASTERN SHORE ATTM...

CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS OUT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT CRNTLY MOVG OFFSHORE
WITH NUMEROUS SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS IN EFFECT. STRONGEST STORM
FORMED OVER THE CHES BAY JUST AFTER 8 AM THEN INTENSIFIED AS IT
MOVED ONSHORE AT A CAMPGROUND IN NORTHAMPTON COUNTY ARND 830 AM.
SEVERAL REPORTS OF INJURIES WITH NUMEROUS REPORTS OF DAMAGE RECEIVED.
SEE LSRAKQ FOR LATEST DETAILS. UPDATE TO BE ISSUED ONCE SURVEY
TEAM ARRIVES ON SITE.

WILL DO A QUICK UPDATE TO GRIDS / ZFP WITH MAIN THREAT OF CONVECTION
THIS AFTRN FROM VA RT 460 ON SOUTH INTO NC AS COLD FRONT SLOWLY
SAGS SOUTH. SHWRS WITH EMBEDDED TSTRMS ACROSS THE NORTH.


PVS DSCN:
LATEST GOES WV SAT IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SHEARING OUT UPPER
DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING, WITH THE
ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARY STALLED JUST TO OUR NW...AND EXTENDING
FROM NORTHERN NJ BACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL PA AND NORTHERN KY.

SEEING SHOWERS REDEVELOPING AS EXPECTED OVER NORTHWESTERN VA/NC,
WITH A FEW ISO SHRAS PUSHING ACROSS FAR WESTERN AKQ PIEDMONT
COUNTIES AT 08Z. UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFYING TO THE WEST WL NUDGE THE
STALLED SFC FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA LATER THIS MORNING
INTO TONIGHT. LATEST HRRR AND THE 00Z/24 NMM BOTH SUGGEST SHRA
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH E-NE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA NOW THROUGH MID MORNING, DROPPING SE LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON, WITH THE FRONT EVENTUALLY SLOWING NEAR THE
NC/VA BORDER TONIGHT.

REGARDING SVR POTENTIAL...OVERCAST CONDITIONS AND TIMING OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
INHIBIT INSTABILITY AND ANY SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA. EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER AND SOUTH US-58 CORRIDOR OVER FAR
SOUTHERN/SE VA INTO NE NC. DEEP LYR SHEAR WILL BE A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE OVER THIS AREA AND WITH SBCAPE IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG
RANGE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BORDER, BEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED
CONVECTION WILL BE WITH LLVL CONVERGENCE/UVV ALONG DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE AREA. SEVERE
THREAT WOULD BE SHORT LIVED, BUT A FEW WET MICROBURSTS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THIS AREA. BIGGER THREAT WILL BE WITH TRAINING
STORMS AS THE SLOWING BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE AREA THIS AFTN/THIS
EVENING...PW`S IN THE 1.75-2" RANGE SHOULD YIELD LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL, WITH DEEP LYR SW FLOW ESSENTIALLY PARALLEL TO BEST
FORCING LEADING TO A CONCERN FOR TRAINING STORMS/RAINS.

TEMPS A BIT OF A CHALLENGE TODAY GIVEN CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
THROUGH THE DAY NORTH WHAT WILL LIKELY BE DEVELOPING AFTN CONVECTION
ACROSS THE SOUTH. CUT BACK HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTH SLIGHTLY (MID
80S), WHILE KEEPING SE COUNTIES IN THE UPR 80S TO ~90 DEG.

TONIGHT...

BOUNDARY LOOKS TO STALL ACROSS SERN VA/NRN NC TONIGHT INTO FRI
MORNING AS THE UPPER TROF LINGERS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THROUGH FRI
AFTN. WHILE POPS ARE DROPPED ACROSS THE NORTH, LOW END CHC POPS
LINGER SOUTH OF THE NC BORDER. WEAK FLOW WILL BRING ONLY MODEST
INFLUX OF COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES, WITH ANOTHER
MUGGY NIGHT FOR MOST. EARLY MORNING LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S FAR
NORTHERN ZONES, 65 TO AROUND 70 SOUTH ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER TROUGH AXIS PUSHES ACROSS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY AFTN, WITH THE
SFC FRONT CLEARING THE CWA BY MIDDAY (STALLING JUST TO THE SOUTH
FRIDAY NIGHT). DRY FRI EXCEPT KEPT A SLIGHT CHC POP IN ACROSS NE NC
ZONES FRIDAY MORNING. THICKNESS TOOLS YIELD HIGHS IN THE L-M80S,
WHICH IS REFLECTED WELL BY THE GOING FORECAST.

WEAK CAA ACROSS THE NORTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTH FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. GFS CONTINUES TO BRING
ACROSS SOME ISOLATED THUNDER BACK IN SAT AFTN AS LLVL SW FLOW
DEVELOPS AND PUSHES STALLED FRONT BACK NORTH. HOWEVER, WITH BEST
FORCING PASSING REGION WELL TO THE NORTH, AND WITH STRONG MIDLEVEL
CAP (INVERSION) EVIDENT ON FORECAST CROSS SECTIONS, THINKING IS THAT
OUR REGION WILL REMAIN DRY SATURDAY AND SAT NIGHT. HIGHS SAT 85-90.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF SAT NGT INTO SUN WITH AN UPR-LEVEL TROF
DIGGING OVR THE ERN CONUS AND SFC HI PRES PUSHING OFFSHORE. A
COMPLEX AREA OF SFC LO PRES WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION...WITH A PREFRNTAL LEE TROF LEADING TO A CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS
OVR THE LOCAL AREA. WITH DEEP S/SW FLOW...TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT FIVE
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE LO TO MID 90S. THE
AFOREMENTIONED SFC LO WILL PUSH E AND DRAG A COLD FRNT INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC REGION MON/MON NGT. INCLUDED A 40% CHANCE OF SHRAS/TSTMS
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. HIGHS MON IN THE UPR 80S TO LWR 90S. ASIDE
FM A LO CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR THE CST...CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT FOR
TUE AND WED...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER OVER THE MD/VA
LOWER EASTERN SHORE IN THE VICINITY OF A THERMAL TROUGH THROUGH AT
LEAST 24/1000Z. AFTER WHICH...INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT NEAR THE WV/VA BORDER WILL OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE AREA.
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE FROM KSBY TO KLKU WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
AS THE NEXT BATCH OF RAIN MOVES EWD THIS MORNING...JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BECOME FOCUSED ALONG THE
COLD FRONT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...WITH BEST CHANCES EXPECTED TO
OCCUR SOUTHEAST OF KRIC. STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BECOME
SEVERE...HOWEVER LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL SHOULD BE THE MAIN IMPACTS TODAY. CONDITIONS DRY OUT FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE
FRONT STALLS ALONG THE NC COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SE VA/NE NC
ON FRIDAY UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE WNW. THE HIGH THEN SLIDES
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY...BRINGING A RETURN TO
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS DURING MOST OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION ON SUNDAY. IT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN STALL NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
MON/TUE.

NOTE: OBSERVATIONS FROM KSBY ARE NOT READILY AVAILABLE DUE TO A
COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEM. RETURN TO SERVICE IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...CURRENT INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED BY CALLING INTO THE
ASOS SITE DIRECTLY. AMD NOT SKED WILL BE APPENDED TO THE KSBY TAF
UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

.MARINE...
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS POSITIONED ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST TO SRN NJ AND THEN CUTS WWD ACROSS NRN VA AS OF 330 AM THIS
MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE WATERS TODAY AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. MAIN
IMPACTS WILL BE LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE COLD FRONT STALLS ALONG THE NC COAST LATER THIS
EVENING INTO FRI MORNING...THEN PUSHES FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND. WSW TO WNW WINDS WILL PREVAIL THIS
MORNING...THEN BECOME NW-N THIS AFTN THROUGH FRI MORNING (AOB 15 KT).
WAVES GENERALLY 1-2 FT TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WHILE SEAS AVERAGE
1-3 FT DURING THE SAME TIME.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS ON FRI AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WINDS N-NE AOB
10 KT FRI/FRI NIGHT. THE SFC HIGH THEN SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY SAT MORNING WITH WEAK CAA OCCURRING BEHIND ITS DEPARTURE.
THIS WILL MARK A RETURN TO ONSHORE E-SE WINDS AOB 15 KT THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEKEND. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL CAUSE
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN AND A SLY SURGE IN WINDS IS
ANTICIPATED SAT NIGHT. THIS MAY PUSH SPEEDS INTO LOW-END SCA FOR
CHES BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND (AOB 20 KT)...HOWEVER WAA PROCESSES MAY
PREVENT THIS FROM ACTUALLY HAPPENING. WILL MONITOR MODEL TRENDS OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO DETERMINE IF SCA HEADLINES ARE NECESSARY. THE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE WATERS LATE MON/MON NIGHT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
KDOX RADAR HAS RETURNED TO SERVICE BUT REMAINS UNSTABLE.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MPR/MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM
LONG TERM...MAS
AVIATION...BMD
MARINE...BMD
EQUIPMENT...





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