Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 191952
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
352 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains over the Mid Atlantic region through
the weekend...with temperatures gradually warming. The next
cold front is expected to impact the region early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Latest weather analysis features ~1027mb Sfc high pressure
along/just offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast extending down
into the mid-south region. Sct-bkn clouds associated with a weak
shortwave has largely pushed offshore, leaving a sunny and
pleasant afternoon on light SSW winds. Temperatures across the
area averaging low to mid 70s across the local area, with some
upper 60s to around 70 along the coast.

Any sct clouds will quickly diminish early this evening, leaving
another clear and cool night over the region. Temps not quite as
chilly as last night, but still in the mid to upper 40s
inland...to low 50s along the coast. Some isolated ground fog
possible toward morning inland and along area rivers.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high remains anchored along and just offshore of the
local area through Saturday, as upper ridge builds over the SE
CONUS. Gradually rising heights will bring a steady moderation
of temperatures Fri-Sun. Highs Fri in the m-u70s...l70s right at
the coast. Early morning lows Saturday morning in the u40s-
around 50F inland...to the l-m50s at the immediate coast. Highs
Sat again in the m-u70s...l70s right at the coast.

Rain chances finally return to the forecast by Monday. A slow-
moving longwave trough pushing across the plains over the
weekend will carve out a deep closed low over the Mid to lower
Mississippi River Valley Sunday night and Monday, as the
attendant surface front pushes across the OH/TN River Valleys
through Monday night. The GFS continued its trend from 00z of
being the more progressive solution, with the ECMWF lagging a
bit behind, as it is a bit more amplified with the upper trough.
The sensible wx highlights should be comparable in this case,
with rain chances expected to hold off until Monday night across
the piedmont, into Tuesday along and east of I-95. Temps in the
remain mild ahead of the front with highs in the 70s to near 80
degrees along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Sfc low pressure deepening over the Southeast States Mon night
will get absorbed into a larger upper level trough digging over
the Midwest and as far south as the mid-Mississippi Valley on
Tue. Rain will be ongoing as a cold front (extending from NY to
NE GA) is pushed ewd by the incoming upper trough. A much colder
Canadian airmass moves into the area behind the cold front
beginning Tue night with showers lingering into Wed. Decent cold
air advection paired with a tight pressure gradient will likely
allow dewpoints to plummet while temperatures are slower to
fall/respond which is common. Upper trough swings through the
region Wed/Wed night. Highs near normal Tue (70-75F) with
widespread rain present. Lows Tue night in the upper 40s to
lower 50s inland and mid to upper 50s closer to the coast. Highs
Wed near normal to around 5 degrees below normal with readings
in the mid-upper 60s. Much cooler Wed night/Thu with lows
generally in the 40s (around 50F immediate coast) and highs of
60-65F.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR conditions across area terminals this afternoon, with VFR
conditions expected to prevail through the 18z taf period. Some
patchy ground fog possible once again late tonight
(RIC/SBY/PHF). Otherwise, sky should remain clear to mostly
clear through the period.

Outlook: Sfc high pressure slides farther offshore on Sunday,
with a cold front expected to push across the local area late
Monday through Tuesday. At least periodic sub-VFR conditions in
rain/lowering ceilings likely Tuesday/Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Genly benign conditions over the waters for the next several
days with sfc high pressure in place across the region. There
will be a weak cold front pushing SE from the Great Lakes and
off the NJ coast Fri morning. Not anticipating any headlines
with this feature, but this will allow for a modest increase in
winds to 10-15 kt Fri morning as the winds shift to the N. Still
only expect waves to build to around 2 ft for the Bay/lower
James, and to remain around 3 ft for the coastal waters. Strong
surface high re-establishes its control over the region Fri
night through Sunday with waves mainly 1 ft and seas of 2-3 ft.


The next chance for significant weather over the waters does not
come until early next week as a strong cold front approaches
from the west on Monday, and slowly crosses the waters Tue or
tue night. The pressure gradient will lead to increasing
southerly flow ahead of the front Mon into early Tue, and
strong NNW winds behind the front Tue night or Wed. SCA
headlines will likely be needed for most or all of the area
during this period.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...ALB/MAM
LONG TERM...BMD
AVIATION...MAM
MARINE...LKB


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