Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 032041
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
441 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WITH WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
AND TO THE COAST THIS EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AS AN UPPER AIR
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATE THIS AFTN...LATEST RDR SHOWED A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND
TSTMS EXTENDING FM NEAR D.C. SW TO JUST W OF FARMVILLE...THEN
CONTINUED TO DANVILLE. ELSEWHERE...ISLTD SHOWERS WERE OVR SE VA
AND NE NC. WILL HAVE 40-60% POPS INTO TNGT...AS THE BROKEN LINE OF
SHOWERS AND TSTMS...AND POSSIBLY OTHER DEVELOPING SHOWERS/TSTMS IN
ADVANCE OF THIS LINE...MOVE EWRD THRU THE CWA. BEST (MARGINAL)
INSTABILITY WILL BE ACRS EXTRM SRN VA AND NE NC...AND THIS AREA
REMAINS IN A SLGT RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE
DAMAGING WNDS/HAIL. OTHERWISE...ANY STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE
GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. POPS DECREASE TO 20-40% FM WSW TO
NE LATE TNGT INTO WED MORNG...AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES TO THE CST.
LOWS TNGT WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 50S TO ARND 60...UNDER A
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UNSETTLED WX WILL CONTINUE ACRS THE FA WED THRU FRI...DUE TO UPR
AIR LO PRES DROPPING FM THE GRT LKS REGION DOWN AND OVR THE MID
ATLC REGION. WILL CARRY MAINLY 20-40% POPS...FM WED AFTN THRU WED
NGT...THEN HAVE 40-60% ACRS THE REGION THU THRU FRI...AS THE UPR
LVL LO TRACKS INTO NC THEN LIFTS NWRD THRU ERN VA/DE AND INTO NEW
JERSEY. OTHERWISE...PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY WED INTO WED
NGT...THEN GENERALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY OR CLOUDY THU THRU FRI. HIGHS
ON WED WILL RANGE FM THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. LOWS WED NGT WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE LWR TO MID 50S. HIGHS ON THU AND FRI WILL RANGE THRU
THE 60S TO NEAR 70. LOWS THU NGT WILL BE IN THE UPR 40S TO LWR
50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY LIFT TO THE NE FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY. POPS RANGE FROM ~20% SW TO 30-40% NE FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY...FOLLOWED BY PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH A 20% CHC OF SHOWERS OVER THE ERN HALF OF
THE AREA. FORECAST LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S...WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 60S OVER THE ERN
SHORE...TO THE LOW 70S FOR INLAND VA/NE NC. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE N SATURDAY NIGHT AND CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY. GFS/CMC
REMAIN SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...BUT THE OVERALL CONSENSUS IS
FOR A SUNDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE. MOISTURE APPEARS LIMITED WITH THIS
BOUNDARY...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC POP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
HIGHS SUNDAY RISE INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE
50S. A MID/UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS SHOULD
LEAD TO GENERALLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS...WITH CURRENT FORECAST
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S MONDAY AND MODERATING INTO THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S TUESDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE W LATE
IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WAS OVER THE TAF SITES AT MIDDAY. A COLD
FRONT WAS SITUATED FROM JUST N OF RIC AND SBY AND CONTINUING TO THE
W/SW MOVING VERY SLOWLY SE. CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES WERE VARYING
BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR. RADAR SHOWED WIDELY SCT LGT SHOWERS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. HAVE SHOWERS AT VARIOUS TIMES IN THE TAFS
LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING.

HAVE THE FRONT MOVE THROUGH RIC/SBY NEXT FEW HOURS AND REACHING PHF
AND ORF OVERNIGHT. WINDS TURN TO THE NE AND CIGS LOWER TO MVFR THEN
LATER IFR BEHIND THE FRONT. AT SBY AND ORF...HAVE LIFR CIGS AND
IFR VSBYS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING BASED ON CONSENSUS OF MODEL/MOS
DATA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL IN THE MORNING JUST NORTH OF
ECG.

WIDESPREAD IFR IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH ONLY SLOW
IMPROVEMENT. KEPT ALL THE TAF SITES IFR THROUGH 18Z EXCEPT SLIGHTLY
BETTER AT RIC. CONDITIONS MAY BE A LITTLE BETTER BY 18Z BUT A LOW
OVERCAST IS EXPECTED TO HANG IN FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER
LOW SETTLES OVER THE AREA WITH PERIODS OF IFR. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW PULLS SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST
WITH AN IMPROVING TREND IN AVIATION CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
A RATHER DIFFUSE COLD FRONT IS GRADUALLY DROPPING INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION THIS AFTN. THE WIND REMAINS SW AOB 10KT AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...AND IS NORTHERLY AOB 10KT ON THE COOL-SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY. THE FRONT GRADUALLY DROPS TO NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER
OVERNIGHT WITH THE WIND BECOMING ENE 10-15KT ACROSS THE NRN BAY AND
NRN OCEAN ZONES. SEAS AVERAGE 2-3FT THIS AFTN...AND BUILD TO 3-4 FT
N OF CHINCOTEAGUE LATER TONIGHT. WAVES IN THE BAY GENERALLY
AVERAGE 1-2 FT. BROAD LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES
FROM THE W. MEANWHILE...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES. ANOTHER
LOW THEN DEVELOPS IN VICINITY OF THE COAST THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER SYSTEM PASSES OVER THE AREA. THE WIND REMAINS
AOB 15KT THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH THE DIRECTION AVERAGING NE THEN
N ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF THE MARINE AREA...TO W THEN NW ACROSS
THE SRN PORTION OF THE AREA. LOW PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES OFFSHORE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH NW FLOW AOB 15KT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE COAST SUNDAY. SEAS AVERAGE 2-3 FT S...TO 3-4 FT N THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH 1-2 FT WAVES IN THE BAY...TO 2-3 FT AT THE MOUTH OF
THE BAY.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...TMG
LONG TERM...AJZ
AVIATION...LSA
MARINE...AJZ


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