Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000
FXUS61 KAKQ 190521
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
121 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND FROM FRIDAY
INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WK SFC CDFNT SETTLES THROUGH THE FA THIS EVE...THEN IS S OF THE
RGN BY AFT MDNGT AS MID LVL S/W EXITS OFF THE CST. ONGOING ISOLD
SHRAS INVOF THE MD EASTERN SHORE (DORCHESTER COUNTY) AND FARMVILLE
IN THE EASTERN PIEDMONT ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT S-SW THE REMAINDER
OF THIS EVENING. RADAR RETURNS ARE VERY LIGHT AND ANY PRECIP
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AROUND 0.01 INCHES AT BEST. OTRW...MOST
AREAS ACROSS INTERIOR VA AND THE MD/VA EASTERN SHORE WILL BE
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY...PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC.
WNDS VRB AND MNLY LGT THIS EVE...BECOMING NNE AFT MDNGT...AND A
LTL BREEZY NR THE CST (ESP LT). LO TEMPS TNGT FM THE M/U50S INLAND
TO L60S RIGHT NR THE CST IN SE VA/NE NC.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ANOTHER PD OF ONSHORE WNDS FM FRI INTO SUN AS LARGE SFC HI PRES
BUILDS FM SE CANADA ACRS NEW ENG. ALONG W/ THE NE WNDS (BREEZY AT
THE CST) WILL BE PDS OF CLDNS...ESP FRI THROUGH SAT MRNG. WHILE
NO TRIGGER FOR PCPN ACRS THE RGN...NOT RULING OUT ISOLD SHRAS OR
DRIZZLE DUE TO THE ENE SFC WNDS.

BY SAT AFTN...THE MARITIME FLO WEAKENS...PTNTLLY ALLOWING DRYING
OVR THE FA. HWVR...SFC LO PRES DEVELOPING OFF THE GA/FL CST FRI
NGT...IS FORECAST TO SLOLY TRACK NE OFF THE SE CONUS CST. SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE MDLS WRT THIS SFC LO (NAM SLOWER THAN
GFS W/ ITS EVENTUAL MOVEMENT). RIGHT NOW...ECMWF/GFS/NAM KEEP BULK
OF THAT SYSTEMS MOISTURE TO THE E. WILL BRING INCRSG CLDNS TO CSTL
SECTIONS OF THE FA BEGINNING SAT...WHILE KEEPING OTHER PLACES AT
WORST PCLDY. BY SUN...THE LO XPCD TO TRACK AWAY FM THE
CST...RESULTING IN DRY/SEASONABLY WARM CONDS OVR THE FA.

HI TEMPS FRI MNLY IN THE M/U70S. LO TEMPS FRI NGT FM THE M50S TO
L60S. HI TEMPS SAT FM THE U70S AT THE CST TO L/M80S INLAND. HI
TEMPS SUN RANGING THROUGH THE 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL USHER IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE THE NE.

MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE ERN CONUS
WITH THE EVOLVING AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN. AMPLIFIED PATTERN
WILL FEATURE A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD. AN ASSOCIATED SECONDARY/REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE WILL BE
RATHER LIMITED ALONG THE FRONT (PWATS ~1.5 INCHES)...BUT HEIGHT
FALLS AND INCREASING WINDS ALOFT (JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH) WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE REGION.
SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED POPS...WITH THE BEST
COVERAGE OVER THE NRN LOCAL AREA. THE BIGGER HEADLINE WITH THE FRONT
WILL BE THE DRY AIR AND COLD AIR ADVECTION POST FRONTAL AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W-NW. MON WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS
THE COOLEST/DRIEST AIR LAGS BEHIND THE FRONT. REINFORCING SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE GREAT LAKES-NE STATES TUES AS THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES OFF
THE ERN SEABOARD. MEANWHILE...MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL PROGRESS EWD OVER
THE CNTRL PLAINS AND INTO THE ERN CONUS TUES-WEDS. COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE PROGGED TO BUILD OVER NEW ENGLAND WEDS. UPPER/SFC HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THURS. THE RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED
DRY CONDITIONS AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

HIGHS WILL BE BELOW AVG THRU THE PERIOD...WITH TUES AND WEDS BEING
THE COLDEST DAYS AT NEARLY -1 STD DEV (LOW-MID 70S). WENT A LITTLE
ABOVE WPC GUIDANCE AS LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES YIELD SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW-MID 50S
INLAND TO LOW 60S NEAR THE COAST. FEW LOCALES IN THE PIEDMONT MAY
DROP INTO THE UPPER 40S AT NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 05Z...VFR SHOULD HOLD FOR THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. BKN-OVC CLOUDS
WITH BASES FROM 5 TO 8 KFT WERE OVER MOST OF THE AREA EXCEPT THE
FAR SE. ISOLD SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACRS WESTERN SECTIONS...PERHAPS
IMPACTING KRIC. LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR AND DRY WEATHER ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THOUGH A WEAK COLD FRONT
CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY NIGHT TO EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES/DISSIPATES OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER SE CANADA AND THE NE STATES. WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT HAS PRODUCED ELY WINDS OVER THE WATER...AVG 5-10 KT. WAVES
GENERALLY 1-2 FT (LOCALLY UP TO 3 IN THE MOUTH OF THE BAY) AND SEAS
3-4 FT. FLOW BECOMES NELY TONIGHT AND FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER NEW ENGLAND. GRADIENT WILL STRENGTHEN...WITH SPEEDS REACHING 20
KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FRI AFTERNOON. COMBINATION OF STRONG SFC
HIGH PRESSURE...NE FLOW AND WARM WATERS MAY RESULT IN SCA WINDS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. CAPPED AT 20 KT FOR NOW. HOWEVER...SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 4-5 FT LATE FRI...FIRST IN THE NRN WATERS...THEN SPREADING
SWD OVER THE REMAINING COASTAL WATERS FRI EVENING-NIGHT. SCA
HEADLINES HAVE BEEN HOISTED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS LATE FRI THRU FRI
NIGHT (THIRD PERIOD). IF FLOW IS STRONGER THAN FORECAST...6-7 FT
SEAS WILL BE POSSIBLE. 4 FT WAVES ALSO POSSIBLE AT THE MOUTH OF THE
BAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY PUSH OFF THE NE COAST SAT AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY OFF THE SE COAST. THE LOW
WILL LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY THRU THE WEEKEND...LOCATING OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOMETIME LATE THIS WEEKEND. SCA CONDITIONS ARE
NOT ANTICIPATED ATTM BASED ON THE GRADIENT WINDS...BUT SPATIAL AND
TIMING DIFFERENCES WRT LOW PRESSURE LEND LITTLE CONFIDENCE. SEAS
WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED (4-5 FT) THRU SAT...BUT FLOW WILL
BRIEFLY BECOME S-SELY LATE SAT-SAT NIGHT AS THE SFC RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN OVER THE WATER. THIS WILL ALLOW SEAS TO DROP BELOW SCA CONDS.

SFC LOW LIFTS NE OFF THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH A COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION SUN NIGHT-MON MORNING. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER WARM WATERS MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF SCA
CONDS THRU THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
VA...MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB/MPR
NEAR TERM...ALB/BMD
SHORT TERM...ALB
LONG TERM...SAM
AVIATION...JDM/LSA
MARINE...SAM





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