Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 201727
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1227 PM EST Sat Jan 20 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Above normal temperatures this weekend into early next week.
A low pressure system may bring some light mixed precipitation
to the area late Sunday night into Monday morning with mainly
rain then expected into Tuesday. However, the threat for mixed
precipitation will linger across portions of the western and
southern Adirondacks and southern Vermont through Monday night.
A colder, seasonable airmass will be ushered back into the
region behind the storm.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1225 PM EST...For this update have raised max temps for
this afternoon by 3 to 5 degrees. A low pressure system and its
associated short wave is passing to our north across eastern
Canada today dragging a cold front across the region. Moisture
is limited so mainly only an increase in clouds has occurred.
With the passage of the cold front westerly winds will become
brisk and gusty so despite above normal temperatures it will
feel quite chilly/cold. Highs are forecast to range from the mid
30s in portions of the western Adirondacks into the upper 40s
to around 50 in the mid Hudson Valley and northwestern
Connecticut.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A secondary cold front will be in the approach from the north
this evening however the upper flow will have become nearly
zonal so the boundary is not expected to reach the area. However
there is a threat for spotty light snow showers or freezing
drizzle mainly this evening across the western Adirondacks and
possibly the western Mohawk Valley. Only have 20 percent pops
in the forecast. Otherwise fair across the local area with lows
expected to drop be in the 20s.

Fair weather expected for Sunday with increasing and thickening
clouds cover ahead of an approaching low pressure system. Winds
will be light as some ridging at the surface to builds in. Highs
in the lower 30s to lower 40s.

Some light warm air advection precipitation is possible late
Sunday and Monday. The concern is the p-type time and its
possible impact on the morning commute. At this time,
probabilities are only in the chances for mixed precipitation
including the threat for freezing rain.

Chances for precipitation will increase Monday especially
during the afternoon into the evening as the system moves into
the Great Lakes. As temperatures warm plain rain is expected
except across western/southern Adirondacks and southern Vermont
where mixed precipitation should linger into early Tuesday
morning as surface temperatures struggle to rise. The
precipitation is expected to remain light through Monday
evening with heavier QPF after midnight as PWAT rise and a
strengthen low level jet moves into the region. It will be a
cold rain with temperatures Monday and Monday night only in the
30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Deterministic models and GEFS members are in solid agreement that
forcing and moisture advection from the low pressure system set to
impact the area will spread across the forecast area on Tuesday.
GEFS mean H850 wind speeds peak at around 40 kt (v-component +2 to
+3 standard deviations), with deterministic GFS/ECMWF forecasting
speeds AOA 50 kt. PWAT also forecast to exceed 0.75 inches, also 2-3
SD above normal. Lift looks to be enhanced in the favorable poleward
exit region of ~125 kt upper jet streak and along progressive
eastward-moving frontal boundary. All this points to a period of
moderate to possibly locally heavy rainfall spreading west to east
across the forecast area on Tuesday. The best forcing looks to be
progressive which should make any period of heavy rainfall fairly
short lived.

The system`s cold front looks to track through the forecast area
from west to east late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Fairly impressive
H850 cold air advection (falling to near -10C by 12Z Wednesday over
Lake Ontario) should result in lake effect snow beginning overnight
and persisting into Wednesday across typical areas. A blustery day
looks to be in store as well due to the continued CAA and tight
pressure gradient in the wake of the cold front. Midlevel trough
axis looks to shift east of the forecast area Thursday resulting in
subsident northwesterly flow and high pressure establishing itself
at the surface, remaining there into Friday. Dry weather expected
during this time frame. Temps after frontal passage Wednesday
through Friday appear to run near to a bit below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions expected to continue today with dry air in the
low levels. A low pressure system will track well north of the
area today with just some areas of mid and high clouds ahead of
it. In the wake of this system, cold air advection is expected
to result in the expansion of stratus tonight. Expect cloud
bases to be at borderline VFR/MVFR levels, except at KPOU where
the stratus isn`t expected to reach.

Surface winds will be gusty this afternoon as the wind
direction veers from southwesterly and then westerly behind a
cold front this afternoon. Gusts of around 20 kts are possible
this afternoon, possibly closer to 30 kts at KALB/KPSF.
Gustiness will diminish this evening with west-northwest winds
around 5 to 10 kt tonight into Sunday morning.

Outlook...

Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of
SN...FZRA...SLEET.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely RA...FZRA...SLEET.
Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite RA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Definite RA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...SHSN.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy Slight Chance of SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Ongoing flooding due to ice jams will continue to be addressed
with areal flood warnings, as some lingering issues continue due
to existing ice jams which have become frozen in place.

Temperatures will run about 10 degrees above normal this
weekend into early next week. However, temperatures are forecast
to fall below freezing at night which will slow or stop any
melt. Monday night temperatures are not expected to drop below
freezing across most of the local area but are expected to be in
the 30s. Tuesday will be the warmest day with highs in the
upper 30s to upper 40s with a colder seasonable airmass
returning Tuesday night.

A low pressure system will impact the region as we head into
next week. Initially the precipitation will be light Monday and
start out as a mix with a change to rain across much of the
area during the day. Monday night rain is expected except across
the western and southern Adirondacks and southern Vermont where
more mixed precipitation is expected before a changeover to
rain occurs on Tuesday. The bulk of the rain is expected late
Monday night and Tuesday morning.

The rain is expected to cause renewed river rises, which may
move and dislodge ice and possibly cause some flooding near ice
jams.

Our latest Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook (ESFALY) was
issued Friday evening.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...IAA
LONG TERM...Thompson
AVIATION...11/Thompson
HYDROLOGY...IAA



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