Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 261413
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1013 AM EDT Tue Sep 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure at the surface and aloft will remain parked over the
region providing dry conditions and near record temperatures today.
A cold front is expected to track through our region late Wednesday
and Wednesday night leading to cooler weather and normal
temperatures by Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Some thin high clouds in the region should not filter the sun
much through this afternoon. Area 12Z soundings show boundary
layer temperatures a degree or two cooler than the past couple
of days, so mixing potential suggests highs in the 80s but 90
may be tough to reach this afternoon. We will see. Just minor
adjustments to the forecast through this afternoon based on
current data and trends. The previous AFD has a few more details
and is below...

High pressure will continue to dominate the sensible weather
today with another hot and humid day on tap. High temperatures
are expected to yet again climb into the mid and upper 80s this
afternoon, under mostly sunny skies. A few very isolated
showers may be possible as well, mainly over the high terrain
and not enough coverage to put in forecast at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Wednesday looks like our last summer-like day as the upper ridge
that has been firmly in place finally breaks down. This is in
response to an upper trough and associated cold front approaching
the area from the west. There is relatively little moisture
associated with the cold front but the heat and humidity along
with some instability will support scattered showers and
thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening prior to the cold
frontal passage. Warm temperatures aloft and light winds will
limit the instability and shear, so chances of strong to severe
thunderstorms look minimal. Highs Wednesday are expected to warm
into the 80s to near 90 degrees.

The surface cold front is timed to track through Wednesday
evening into the overnight period, allowing for winds to turn
out of the north and start ushering in cooler air. Some isolated
showers will be possible as well through early Thursday morning.
Temperatures will start to feel cooler overnight as values dip
into the 40s in the Adirondacks and into the upper 50s
elsewhere.

Cold air advection will ensue throughout the day Thursday
with breezy north to northwesterly winds. This will allow for a
return to fall normals with highs in the 60s to low 70s. The
core of the coldest air looks to arrive sometime Thursday
afternoon/evening. In fact, the latest GEFS shows the above
normal warmth exiting the area Wednesday night with slightly (-1
to -2 S.D. 925mb Temps) below normal air entering New York
Thursday night. Temperatures Thursday night will likely dip into
the 40s, potentially some upper 30s in the Adirondacks.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The extended period will feature much more seasonable temperatures
and mainly dry conditions with only one minor rain threat to discuss.

Following the cold front from Thursday, Canadian high pressure takes
control of our region on Friday. The thermal axis moves into our
area during the day Friday with H850 isotherms in the low single
digits yielding cooler temperatures than seen on Thursday. Highs
should only finish in the upper 50s/low 60s. While the majority of
Friday should be dry, we should see gradually increasing clouds as a
shortwave trough embedded in a positively tilted longwave trough
progresses from the Great Lakes into the Northeast heading into
Saturday.

Guidance continues to trend slower with the onset timing of showers
and also has shifted the position of the surface low further south
in the mid-Atlantic. While the Euro in recent runs showed the
shortwave cutting off with much more moisture, the recent 00z run is
more in line with the GFS and Canadian output showing a weaker and
drier shortwave. In addition, the 300 mb jet dynamics are not
favorable for a widespread rain event in the 00z model suite.
Therefore, am growing confident that the total rainfall from
isolated to scattered showers should only range from around a tenth
to less than two tenths. In terms of timing, kept 12-18z Friday dry
as any initial moisture and positive vorticity advection will have
to fight dry air initially. Then increased POPS to slight chance in
extreme western areas 18z Fri - 00z Sat. Increased POPS from west to
east Friday night but only peaked on the low end of chance given the
southern/drier trend.

Lingered slight chance POPs for daytime Saturday to be in line with
the neighboring offices; however, the best chance for any leftover
showers should be in the morning in western New England as
subsidence behind departing shortwave should give drier conditions
for the second half of the day. Temperatures stay seasonably cool in
the 60s thanks to northwest flow.

Strong high pressure (potentially 1030-1035mb) from the Midwest then
tracks into the region Sunday - Tuesday, continuing the dry and
pleasant weather. As the high shifts into New England by Monday -
Tuesday, return flow should set in and high temperatures look to
rise back into the low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure/ridging at the surface and aloft will remain in
place over the region through today. The ridge then begins
breaking down tomorrow as an upper level trough approaches from
the west.

IFR/LIFR fog should burn off/lift by 13Z this morning. After
that, VFR conditions will prevail through this evening. Another
round of radiational mist/fog will be possible again tonight
with IFR/LIFR conditions at KGFL/PSF. KALB/KPOU less confident
for IFR or lower conditions so have placed some shallow
fog/MIFG or visibilities close to 6SM.

Expect calm winds this morning and light east to southeast
winds at 6 Kt or less through this afternoon. Winds will then
trend towards calm late tonight.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Isolated SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure at the surface and aloft will remain parked over the
region providing dry conditions and near record temperatures today.
A cold front is expected to track through our region late Wednesday
and Wednesday night leading to cooler weather and normal
temperatures by Thursday.

RH values will be in the 80 to 100 percent range tonight and
Wednesday night. RH values will drop to 45 to 60 percent this
afternoon and Wednesday afternoon.

East to southeast winds at less than 10 mph today and tonight.
Winds shift to southwest at less than 15 mph Wednesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrologic issues are expected through the next
week. Fair and warm weather is forecast through mid-week as
high pressure dominates. The next chance for rainfall will be on
Wednesday and Thursday with less than a tenth of an inch of
rainfall expected.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record high temperatures may be possible today.

Here is a list of the current Record highs for September 26:

Albany NY:
September 26th/Tuesday: 89 degrees 2007
Daily records date back to 1874

Glens Falls NY:
September 26th/Tuesday: 87 degrees 2007
Records date back to 1949

Poughkeepsie NY:
September 26th/Tuesday: 90 degrees 2007 Records date back to
1949, however data is missing from January 1993 through July
2000.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JVM
NEAR TERM...NAS/JVM
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...Speciale
AVIATION...NAS/JVM
FIRE WEATHER...NAS/JVM
HYDROLOGY...NAS/JVM
CLIMATE...



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