Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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717
FXUS61 KALY 290757
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
357 AM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather with seasonable temperatures will return for today
into Tuesday, with gradually lowering levels of humidity. The next
chance for any rain will be on Wednesday when scattered showers
and thunderstorms are expected ahead of a cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Dry weather is expected today as a cold front drops south of the
region with high pressure building in from the eastern Great Lakes
behind it. It will not be as warm as Sunday with highs in the
upper 60s to upper 70s over the higher terrain and upper 70s to
mid 80s in the valleys. Winds will be from the northwest at 5 to
15 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
For Tonight through Tuesday night...Generally dry weather is
expected as high pressure builds over the region and then slides
off the eastern seaboard by late Tuesday afternoon. Lows tonight
will be in the upper 40s to upper 50s with highs on Tuesday in the
upper 60s to lower 80s. Lows Tuesday night will be in the mid 50s
to lower 60s.

On Wednesday and Wednesday night...There will be a chance of
showers and thunderstorms as a cold front drops southeast from the
eastern Great Lakes and southern Canada through our region
Wednesday evening. MLMUCAPES rise to 500 to 1000 J/KG Wednesday
afternoon. PWATS rise to 1.25 to 1.60 inches Wednesday afternoon
and 0-6 KM bulk shear reaches 30 to 35 kts. Thus some heavy
downpours and a few storms with gusty winds are possible. Thunderstorms
should weaken Wednesday evening with the loss of daytime heating.
Highs on Wednesday will generally be in the mid 70s to mid 80s
with lows Wednesday night in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Thursday and Friday...Models have shifted a bit from yesterday.
Previous runs had a broad eastern trough. Latest guidance suggests a
sharper trough across the Northeast with both the 00Z Euro and the
00Z GFS closing off a 500mb trough over the area on Thursday and
Friday. 500mb temps of -16 to -18C coupled with the cyclonic flow
aloft suggest that mainly afternoon showers will be possible both
days. For now have slight chance POPs mainly across the higher
terrain. Lows in the 40s and 50s and highs in the 60s and 70s.

Saturday and Sunday...Trough has exited to the southeast by this
time and big upper level ridge is building in. Mainly clear skies
with cool mornings and mild afternoons are expected. Saturday lows
in the 40s and 50s and highs in the 60s and 70s. Sunday lows in the
40s and 50s with highs in the 70s to around 80.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A cold front will move across the region tonight into early Monday
morning. A few rain showers now noted on radar with the front but
they seem to be drying up. Have tempo for -shra at KALB and KPSF.
With clouds and breeze at most locations, have IFR fog developing
near sunrise at KGFL only.

Behind the cold front, skies will gradually clear after sunrise
Monday, with drier air moving in. Winds overnight will shift from
southwest to west to northwest Monday morning. Northwest winds
will become breezy Monday afternoon at KALB and KPSF with a few
gusts to 20kts.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry weather with seasonable temperatures will return for today
into Tuesday, with gradually lowering levels of humidity. The next
chance for any rain will be on Wednesday when scattered showers
and thunderstorms are expected ahead of a cold front.

Relative humidity values will drop to 45 to 60 percent today,
recover to 85 to 100 percent tonight, and drop to 40 to 55 percent
on Tuesday.

Winds will be northwest at 5 to 15 mph today and tonight, and
southwest around 5 mph on Tuesday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Dry weather is expected through Tuesday. The next chance of rain
will be with scattered showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday. No
hydro problems are anticipated.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Frugis/OKeefe/11/JPV
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...SND
FIRE WEATHER...11
HYDROLOGY...OKeefe/11



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