Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 251736
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1236 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER TODAY BUT STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL...HOWEVER
COLDER AIR WILL BE USHERED IN TONIGHT SETTING THE STAGE FOR A SNOW
STORM. A COASTAL LOW WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA
THAT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW
OCCURRING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
A SECONDARY TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON USHERING
IN EVEN COLDER AIR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY
THROUGH 10 AM THURSDAY FOR SOUTHERN VERMONT...BERKSHIRES...LITCHFIELD
COUNTY...TACONICS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...ALBANY AND RENSSELAER
COUNTIES...AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS.

THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FORM 7 AM
WEDNESDAY UNTIL 10 AM ON THURSDAY SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND
SOUTHERN HERKIMER COUNTY.

AS FOR THE WINTER STORM WATCH...IT REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH 10 AM THURSDAY FOR SCHOHARIE...MONTGOMERY...SOUTHERN
FULTON...SCHENECTADY...SARATOGA...SOUTHEAST WARREN AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES. THIS AREA IS STILL A TOUGH CALL FOR THE LINE BETWEEN
WARNING LEVEL AND ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL. AT LEAST SOME OF THE
WATCH AREA WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED A WARNING LATER THIS
AFTERNOON WITH AN ADVISORY FOR THE REST. NEED TO LOOK THROUGH
MORE OF THE 12Z GUIDANCE AND THE GUIDANCE FROM THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER BEFORE MAKING THIS TOUGH CALL.

THIS STORM WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT HOLIDAY TRAVEL...MAKING
DRIVING DANGEROUS AT TIMES WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND POOR
VISIBILITIES.

HAVE BROUGHT ONSET OF SNOW A BIT EARLY BEGINNING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN MOST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AND REACHING THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT BY MID MORNING AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY AFTERNOON. THE SNOW WILL BE THE HEAVIEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
AN HOUR WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THIS STORM LOOKS TO BE A MILLER TYPE A STORM AS SOUTHERN STREAM
ENERGY WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS DOES NOT LOOK TO BE A BLOCKBUSTER OF A SNOW EVENT...HOWEVER
IT IS IMPACTING THE REGION AT THE WORST POSSIBLE TIME FOR THOSE
TRAVELING FOR THE HOLIDAY. QPF AMOUNTS WITH THIS STORM ARE STILL
UNCERTAIN WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF IN ONE CAMP AND THE GFS AND GGEM
WITH CONSIDERABLY LOWER AMOUNTS. DUE TO THE CONSISTENCY OF THE
MODEL THROUGH THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS HAVE OPTED TO GO CLOSER TO THE
ECMWF SOLUTION FOR QPF. BEST FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AT H7 OCCURS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA BETWEEN 12Z WED AND 00Z THU.
GEFS PLUME FROM 00Z SHOWS A CLUSTERING OF MEMBERS BETWEEN 0.4 AND
0.8 AT KALB WITH RANGE FROM A TENTH ON THE LOW END TO AROUND AN
INCH ON THE HIGH END.

OUR TOTAL SNOWFALL FORECAST MAP HAS BEEN POSTED TO THE WEB AND
CAN BE FOUND AT ON OUR WINTER WEATHER HAZARD BRIEFING PAGE AT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALY/EMWINTER

AT THIS TIME...WE HAVE 6 TO 16 INCHES FORECAST IN THE WARNING AREA
WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALS ACROSS THE TACONICS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...9 INCHES OR MORE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA AND 3 TO 6
INCHES ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA. TOTAL LIQUID QPF RANGES FROM A
THIRD OF AN INCH NORTHWEST TO AN INCH AND A QUARTER SOUTHEAST.

ANY CHANGE IN THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON EXPECTED
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S
TONIGHT AND ONLY RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ON
WEDNESDAY. THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING WITH STILL A FEW SNOW SHOWERS AROUND DURING THE
DAY ON THURSDAY. EXPECT LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO MID 20S WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A DEAMPLIFYING PATTERN LOOKS TO DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE LONG TERM
PERIOD...WITH SEVERAL FAST MOVING...FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE SYSTEMS
PASSING THROUGH. GIVEN SUCH A FAST FLOW DEVELOPING IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS...TIMING OF THESE FEATURES AND RESULTANT EFFECTS ON THE
REGION WILL HAVE QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY...AND LARGELY SUBJECT TO
CHANGE.

AN UPPER TROUGH/MID LEVEL COLD POOL WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION THU
NT INTO FRI...TRIGGERING SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS/MOHAWK VALLEY/UPSLOPE AREAS OF WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...WITH PERHAPS A FEW FLURRIES EXTENDING INTO UPPER PORTIONS
OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

AS EACH IMPULSE PASSES ACROSS OR NORTH OF THE REGION...PERIODS OF
WARM ADVECTION COULD RESULT IN SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION...WITH THE
BEST TIMING AT THIS VANTAGE POINT APPEARING TO BE LATE SAT INTO
SUN...AND THEN AGAIN POSSIBLE LATE MON INTO TUE. FORECAST THERMAL
PROFILES SUGGEST THAT PRECIP COULD BE LIGHT SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX
ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS...AND MAINLY RAIN FOR SOUTHERN
AREAS.

TEMPS WILL GENERALLY AVERAGE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...ALTHOUGH WILL
FLUCTUATE QUITE A BIT WITH EACH PASSING DISTURBANCE. EXPECT DAYTIME
MAX TEMPS TO MAINLY BE IN THE 30S FOR VALLEYS AND 20S ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FOR FRI-MON...THEN POSSIBLY MODERATING INTO THE LOWER 40S
IN VALLEYS AND 30S ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY TUE. OVERNIGHT MIN
TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE TEENS AND 20S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. W-SW WINDS AROUND 10-12 KTS WITH A FEW
HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 5-10 KTS FOR
THIS EVENING DUE TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING.

DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...LOWER CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...ESP BY LATE TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL
MAY START TO REACH TOWARDS KPOU TOWARDS DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. ONCE
SNOW BEGINS...IT WILL QUICKLY REDUCE VSBY DOWN TO IFR CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT FOR LATE TONIGHT...AND BECOME N-NE FOR
WEDNESDAY MORNING...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS.

SNOW WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...REACHING KPSF BY 13Z...KALB BY 14Z AND KGFL BY 16Z. ALL
AREAS LOOK TO SEE IFR CONDITIONS SHORTLY AFTER SNOW BEGINS.  SNOW
WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY SEVERAL HOURS AFTER BEGINNING...BECOMING
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY FOR THE AFTN HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
WED PM-WED NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SN.
THANKSGIVING DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHSN.
THU NIGHT-FRI: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRI NIGHT-SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHSN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEK.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. THE REGION WILL
BE IMPACTED BY A COASTAL LOW WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH
WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE AREA. HEAVY SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND MUCH OF EASTERN NEW YORK
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR NYZ051>054-058>061-063>066.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR NYZ039>041-043-047>050-083-084.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NYZ032-033-038-042-082.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
     FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/11
NEAR TERM...IAA/11
SHORT TERM...IAA/11
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...FRUGIS
HYDROLOGY...11






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