Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 280744
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
344 AM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Behind a departing cold front, dry weather is expected for most
of the area today into the weekend; however, some rainfall is
possible across far southern areas as low pressure passes by to
the south. Temperatures will remain a bit cooler than normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A weak frontal boundary continues to sag south through the area
early this morning and is currently INVOF of the Albany. This
front brought a few spotty showers to the northern portion of
the forecast area but also brought variable cloudiness. The
front is expected to wash out across the area along with the
showers. Currently, there are only a couple spotty showers in
southern Vermont. In areas that experienced clearing earlier
have developed patchy dense fog. The latest GOES-16 advanced
nighttime microphysics channel distinguishes the areas of fog
versus the mid and high level clouds well.

The remainder of today will be a quiet weather day as the
region remains situated between high pressure (and drier air)
to the northwest and a developing low to the south. Afternoon
temperatures are expected to reach the upper 70s to low 80s,
with low 70s in the high terrain.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A compact, upper low is forecast to move from the western Great
Lakes today to the Delmarva by tomorrow morning. Cyclogenesis
will occur on the lee side of the Mid-Atlantic Appalachians,
forming a surface low near the Delmarva/NJ coastline by 12Z/Sat.
The surface low, in conjunction with the upper low, will
lift northeastward along the Mid-Atlantic to New England
coastline Saturday into Sunday. The system and upper trof axis will
get elongated along the coastline with the best dynamics
generally remaining offshore.

Fortunately, the majority of the forecast area will remain dry
through this period. There is a chance for some showers across
the southern portions of Ulster/Dutchess/Litchfield counties
late today into Saturday afternoon as the upper low feature
passes by to our south. There will also be plenty of cloud cover
across the southern third of the forecast area through Saturday
evening.

With the system to the east, north to northeast flow will ensue,
advecting in drier and cooler air. Lows Friday night will be
fairly chilly up north, in the low to mid 50s, but mild down
south, in the low 60s. Highs on Saturday will be in the upper
60s and low 70s area wide. Temperatures are expected to drop
into the mid 50s, possibly the upper 40s across the highest
terrain. Though, cloud cover could keep temperatures even
cooler than forecast during the day Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A rather tranquil period of weather with seasonable temperatures
through the long term forecast.

The second half of the weekend looks like summer as short wave ridge
axis is expected to slide across the region with H850 temperatures
near +12 to +14C.  This should allow for valley temperatures to
approach 80F with mainly 70s elsewhere under a good deal of July
sunshine.

A weakening trough axis approaches on Monday.  Due the weakening
nature of this feature and lack of distinct wave aloft as the flow
becomes more northwesterly, an isolated convective element may
develop but too low of a probability as we will keep the weather dry
for now.  Temperatures continue to moderate with a return of low
level moisture as dewpoints climb back toward 60F.

Monday night into Tuesday, flow aloft becomes a bit more cyclonic as
that weak boundary could become a focus for isolated to scattered
convection through the daylight hours Tuesday.  Rather warm and
humid conditions are expected with highs into the 80s and dewpoints
into the 60s.

A stronger frontal boundary is expected to approach for the mid and
late week.  This will serve to increase southerly winds and warmer
with more moist conditions advecting into the local area. This will
increase the probabilities for showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A few showers linger along the frontal zone near KGFL where we will
place a VCSH from KGFL to KALB as these showers should dissipate the
further south these showers travel.  Otherwise, the main aviation
hazard overnight will be IFR/LIFR conditions with fog/low-stratus.
These restrictions are expected to continue right up to near
sunrise.  Then diurnally driven VFR scattered CU field should
develop with a light northerly wind.

Outlook...

Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Drier weather is expected to take hold today into the weekend,
although isolated showers are possible across the southern
portions of the forecast area late today into Saturday. RH
values will fall in the mid-40s to mid-50s range this
afternoon. It will be progressively drier into Sunday, with RH
values bottoming out around 40 percent by Sunday. North-
northeasterly winds could become a bit breezy on Saturday,
gusting to around 25 mph at times.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Conditions will generally be dry today into the weekend, but
some periods of rainfall may impact areas around the mid-Hudson
Valley and Northwest Connecticut Friday night into Saturday.
Models continue to keep the heavier rainfall south of the
forecast area, with generally light amounts of 0.15" or less
expected. Trends will continue to be monitored as there will be
a sharp cutoff in precipitation amounts, so a slight northward
shift in the storm track could result in increased QPF totals.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OKeefe/Thompson/JVM
NEAR TERM...JVM
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...Frugis/BGM
FIRE WEATHER...Thompson/JVM
HYDROLOGY...Thompson/JVM



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