Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 272344
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
644 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NOR`EASTER POSITIONED EAST OF CAPE COD WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
AND PULL AWAY TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN DECREASING SNOW ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS WITH A COLD AIR MASS
IN PLACE. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY...AS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 644 PM EST...LATEST CHANGES TO HEADLINES INCLUDE EXTENDING
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM FOR THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TACONICS...AND ALL OF WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. ALSO CANCELLING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN TACONICS...AND
LAKE GEORGE SARATOGA REGION.

LOCAL EFFECT STILL PRODUCING A FEW AREAS OF SNOW ACROSS PARTS OF
THE REGION. MOHAWK-HUDSON CONVERGENCE /MHC/ STILL GOING WITH WESTERLY
WINDS AT ROME AND JOHNSTOWN IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND NORTHERLY
WINDS AT GLENS FALLS AND ALBANY RESULTING IN LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
PORTIONS OF ALBANY AND SCHENECTADY COUNTIES...WITH PERHAPS AN
ADDITIONAL HALF INCH OR SO EXPECTED. HOWEVER...RADAR TRENDS
SHOWING A MORE ENHANCED AREA OF SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH OF RENSSELAER
COUNTY LIKELY OCCURRING DUE TO A COMBINATION OF MHC AND UPSLOPE
FLOW ALONG AND UPWIND OF THE NORTHERN TACONICS. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
OF AN INCH OR POSSIBLY TWO COULD OCCUR THERE.

EARLIER THIS EVENING...AN IMPRESSIVE AREA OF SNOW DISJOINTED FROM
THE MAIN BATCH ASSOCIATED WITH THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL LOW AFFECTED
MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL NY FROM THE LATE MORNING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON. DEFORMATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL
CIRCULATION LIKELY CONTRIBUTED TO THIS LONG LIVED AREA OF SNOW.
WITHIN THIS LARGER AREA...THERE WERE SMALLER SCALE SNOW BANDS THAT
SET UP DUE TO LOCAL CONVERGENCE ZONES...INCLUDING MOHAWK-HUDSON
CONVERGENCE /MHC/ IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT. SNOWFALL TOTALS ENDING
UP LESS THAN FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE ENTIRE
DURATION OF THE STORM. HOWEVER...LOCALLY IN THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
WE HAVE RECEIVED REPORTS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW FROM THE MHC
ENHANCEMENT...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS FROM EARLIER ACROSS PARTS OF
DUTCHESS/BERKSHIRE/LITCHFIELD COUNTIES OF 4 TO 9 INCHES.

SNOW EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF COMPLETELY BY LATE THIS EVENING AS THE
NOR`EASTER PULLS AWAY AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WEST. COLD
TEMPERATURES IN STORE TONIGHT WITH A NORTHERLY BREEZE MAKING IT
FEEL EVEN COLDER. MIN TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS WITH BELOW ZERO READINGS ACROSS THE
WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES IN FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY. STILL WITH A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY RUN ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MUCH OF THE REGION
SHOULD EXPERIENCE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY. TRANQUIL
WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH
GRADUALLY DRIFTS OVER THE REGION. WITH WIND SPEEDS DIMINISHING AND
FRESH SNOW COVER ON THE GROUND...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO
THE -5 TO 5 ABOVE RANGE FOR MINS ACROSS THE REGION.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WITH
SEVERAL PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY. WHILE THIS DYNAMIC SYSTEM WILL
HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR A
WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION. WILL MENTION
LIKELY POPS ACROSS FAR WESTERN AREAS LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH
THE BRUNT OF THE SNOWFALL EXPECTED TO OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT. AS OF
NOW IT APPEARS THAT A 2-4 INCH SNOW FALL WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA...HOWEVER HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 3-6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY. WILL MENTION THE
POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THESE WESTERN AREAS IN
THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW WITH ONE PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED
SNOWS EXITING FRIDAY...AND SOME COLD ADVECTION. SOME LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS INTO THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...TRENDING INTO THE SCHOHARIE
VALLEY AND THE EASTERN CATSKILLS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW TURNS FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST. DRY WEATHER LATER SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. ANOTHER STRONG NORTHERN STREAM PIECE OF UPPER
ENERGY TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
A CHANCE FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW.

QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD AS TO PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER THERMAL
GRADIENT...WHICH IS A FIRST HINT THAT SOME AREAS COULD SEE MIXED
PRECIPITATION...DEPENDING ON THE STORM TRACK. THIS FAR OUT...JUST
GOING CHANCES FOR SNOW...AGAIN...WHEREVER THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
ALL SNOW...THERE IS A SUGGESTION FROM MOST GUIDANCE SOURCES FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW.  TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY LOOK TO BE A BIT
BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LAST OF THE LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING FROM KALB TO KPSF...BUT
JUST SOUTH OF KGFL. SNOW LOOKS TO HAVE ENDED IN THE KPOU AREA.
SO...VCSH WITH TEMPO MVFR VISIBILITY SNOW THROUGH ABOUT 03Z...WITH
THE OPTION FOR AMENDMENTS IF THE TIMING NEEDS TO BE ADJUSTED A
LITTLE BASED ON RADAR EVOLUTION. JUST VCSH KGFL AS THE SNOW SLOWLY
EXITS THERE.

ONCE THE SNOW IS GONE...AFTER 03Z...VFR CEILINGS JUST ABOVE 3000
FEET SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT.  THE CEILING WILL
BREAK UP TO SCATTERED AFTER SUNRISE...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTY INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...15 TO AROUND 20 KT...THEN DIMINISH TOWARD SUNRISE.  NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD STILL BE STEADY AROUND 10 KT MUCH OF THE DAY
TOMORROW THEN DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 10 KT TOWARD SUNSET.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SN.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SN.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

PRECIPITATION THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW...WITH
SNOWFALL ENDING TONIGHT...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW LIKELY LATE THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY.

ICE WILL CONTINUE TO THICKEN ON RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES
AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE EAGLE BRIDGE GAGE ON THE HOOSIC RIVER CONTINUES TO BE HAMPERED
BY ICE EFFECTS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     CTZ001-013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ048>054-061-084.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     MAZ001-025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...NAS
AVIATION...NAS
HYDROLOGY...JPV







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