Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 020517
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
117 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AA COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST THIS
EVENING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEHIND TO BUILD IN. EXPECTING DRY
WEATHER ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS WE HEAD INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 115 AM EDT...SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR FOR AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...EXCEPT FOR SOME PATCHY CLOUDS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. MORE CLOUDS...AND EVEN ISOLATED
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS.

WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE A BIT MORE IN AREAL COVERAGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN GREEN
MTNS AND BERKSHIRES THROUGH DAYBREAK...AS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
UPSTREAM BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH A LOWERING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
ALSO...HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY STREAM EAST FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS MAY BRIEFLY EXPAND INTO SW VT...BEFORE
DISSIPATING AFTER 3-5 AM.

TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S IN MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...BRINING A COUPLE DAYS OF DRY AND PLEASANTLY WARM WEATHER
AS WE HEAD TO THE EARLY PART OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

H850 TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE CLOSE TO +10C. THIS WILL YIELD TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING 75 TO 80 IN THE
VALLEYS...70-75 HIGHER TERRAIN.

UNDER A MAINLY CLEAR SKY...LIGHT OR NO WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL ON BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. LOOK FOR LOWS DOWN INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGIONS...AND
SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS EVEN INTO THE CATSKILLS. THERE COULD BE
SOME COLDER POCKETS BOTTOMING OUT CLOSE TO 40. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE HUDSON AND MOHAWK VALLEYS FROM ALBANY
SOUTHWARD.

THERE WILL BE FEW-SCT CU FORMING IN THE VALLEYS EACH AFTERNOON...AND
SCT-BKN CU ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AT WORST...THERE COULD BE A
AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN SPRINKLE...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE DRY. A
NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH...GUSTING TO 25 MPH ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN/MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE CAPITAL REGION ON
THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD...THE WIND
VARIABLE GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH AND PASS OVER THE REGION
THIS WEEKEND. THIS ONE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN PROGRESSIVE AND
POSITIVELY TILTED. MODELS INDICATE WEAK FORCING WITH LIMITED
INSTABILITY WITH CHANCES FOR DEVELOPMENT ANY STORMS LIMITED TO THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. SHOULD BE SEASONABLE WARM MAINLY
IN THE 70S.

GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH HEIGHTS RISES SUNDAY
AND RIDGING BUILDING IN SUNDAY NIGHT AND DOMINATING INTO TUESDAY.
OUR NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN/STORMS WILL COME AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A WEAK LOW APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST ALONG THE COAST.

SUNDAY WILL BE A BIT WARMER THAN SATURDAY AND MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES EVEN WARMER. HIGHS AT OR BIT ABOVE NORMAL
MAINLY IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S.

IT APPEARS THAT RISING MID/UPPER TROPOSPHERIC HEIGHTS AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS DURING THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH SUBTLE SMALLER SCALE DISTURBANCES WILL STILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD ENDING
AT 06Z FRIDAY AS A RESULT CLOUD COVER WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT. WITH THE GROUND WET/DAMP IN MANY LOCATIONS
SOME MVFR FOG IS EXPECTED TO FORM. ANY LINGERING FOG WILL BURN OFF
AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL TODAY. WESTERLY WINDS OF LESS
THAN 10 KTS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH A MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT
KGFL. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK... THU NIGHT-MON: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THERE WILL ONE MORE ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING AS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH. THEN...A DRYING
TREND WILL FINALLY SET IN AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE IN. A
BREEZE WILL KICK IN FROM THE NORTHWEST 5-10 MPH TONIGHT...10-15
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH ON THURSDAY. RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE
30S IN THE VALLEYS...40S HIGHER TERRAIN BY AFTERNOON.

A FULL RECOVERY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH NEAR 100 PERCENT HUMIDITY AND
LOTS OF DEW. ANOTHER DRY MAINLY SUNNY DAY FRIDAY WITH FAIRLY LOW
AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES ALONG WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

A COLD FRONT MIGHT TOUCH OFF A LONE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
SATURDAY...OTHERWISE IT LOOKS DRY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE RAIN THIS MORNING DID PRODUCE SOME RISE ON MAINLY SMALLER
CREEKS THIS MORNING IN OUR SOUTHERN HSA. RADAR ESTIMATED THAT OVER
TWO INCHES OF RAIN FELL NEAR THE ROUNDABOUT BASIN.

THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SAW AN INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL WITH
LITTLE OR NO EFFECT ON OTHER WATERSHEDS.

ONE MORE ROUND OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING...GENERALLY PRODUCING AVERAGE BASIN RAINFALL OF A QUARTER
INCH OR LESS.

THEN...A DRYING TREND WILL UNFOLD WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS (OUTSIDE OF A LOW CHANCE OF PASSING
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ON SATURDAY).


FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/HWJIV
NEAR TERM...IAA/HWJIV/KL
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA/11
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV


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