Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 281127
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
725 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY..BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. WARMER AND MORE
HUMID AIR WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TO START THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT WILL DROP SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...AND STALL TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY. IT WILL BRING MORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND COOLER WEATHER FOR THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 400 AM EDT...THE MAIN COLD FRONT...AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WERE ENTERING WESTERN NY. THERE WAS A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES THAT STRETCHED FROM THE TUG HILL PLATEAU
TO NEAR SYRACUSE TO NORTH-CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. WITH ENOUGH
HEATING AHEAD OF THE BAND OF SHOWERS...TSTMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP
ALONG THIS BAND BY LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. THE
SHOWERS FROM THIS BAND WILL LIKELY REACH THE EXTREME NORTHWEST
PART OF THE FORECAST AROUND SUNRISE...WITH THE AXIS OF THIS BAND
REACHING A LINE FROM LAKE GEORGE TO THE CAPITAL DISTRICT TO THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS AROUND NOON...THEN FROM SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE
COUNTY TO THE SOUTHERN TACONICS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY 3-4 PM.
BY SUNSET...ALL SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL HAVE EXITED THE ALBANY
FORECAST AREA. EXPECT THE SHOWERS/TSTMS ALONG THIS BAND TO REMAIN
SCATTERED...SO HAVE FORECAST NO HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS IN ANY
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S
OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...AND THE 70S TO MID 80S ELSEWHERE.
WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST TO WEST OR NORTHWEST
DURING THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WITH WIND GUSTS OF
20 TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE.

THE STORMS PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) HAS PLACED A SMALL PORTION OF
EAST CENTRAL NY...SOUTHERN VT AND BERKSHIRE COUNTY IN A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE TSTMS FOR TODAY...WITH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA (EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHWEST THIRD)...IN A MARGINAL
RISK. WILL UPDATE THE ZONES TO REFLECT THIS OUTLOOK.

SKIES WILL CLEAR QUICKLY LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING...WITH MAINLY
CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES FORECAST OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE COOLER AND
LESS HUMID TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FRI 500HPA HGTS/RIDGE BRIEFLY BUILD OVER RGN AND SLIDE
OFFSHORE...AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVR RGN UNDER IT...BFR
SLIDING OFFSHORE. ANOTHER FINE SUMMER DAY AS HIGH TEMPS REACH THE
LOW AND MID 80S IN MOST AREAS WITH UPPER 70S IN THE HIR TRRN.

FRI NT AND SAT THE RIDGE AT ALL LVLS SLIDES OFFSHORE AND AN INCR
S-SW FLOW OF INCRG MOISTURE ADVECTION SETS UP ACROSS THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. TD INCREASE BACK INTO THE 60S WITH VRBL TO INCR CLOUDS.
DURING THE DAY SAT MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE IN TIMING BOTH THE
APPROACHING CDFNT AND THE THREAT OF TSTMS/SHRA. THE ECMWF/GEM
HOLD THE BULK OF THE PCPN THREAT OFF TILL LATE SAT...THE NAM/GFS
BRING THREAT INTO RGN BY AFTN. PVS FCST...HPC FAVORED THIS SLOWER
TIMING OF PCPN THREAT AND CDFNT AND GIVEN ITS GENERAL PARALLEL
NATURE TO UPR FLOW THAT LOOKS REASONABLE. SO SAT WILL BE VRBL
CLOUDY...WARM AND HUMID WITH INCRG CHC TSTMS.

SAT NT AND SUN MOST OF THE MDL SUITE BRINGS A CDFNT SLOWLY SOUTH
THROUGH THE FCA...BUT THE SCENARIOS BEGIN SPREADING. THE GEM
STALLS IT IN THE MID ATLC WITH SFC LOW IN THE OH VLY RIPPLING E
ALONG IT...AND CLOUDS AND -SHRA PERSISTING INTO MON. THE
ECMWF/GFS MOVES IT ALBEIT SLOWLY THROUGH FCA WITH CLEARING IMPLIED
N OF I90 CORRIDOR SUN NT. ITS SOUTHERN EXTENT WILL BE DETERMINED
BY VERY SUBTLE VARIATIONS IN THE 500HPA FLOW WHICH REMAINS LARGELY
PARALLEL TO THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.

REGARDLESS...AFTER DAYS OF WELL ABV NORMAL TEMPS...TEMPS WILL TURN
WELL BLO NORMAL SUN...UNDER CLOUDS AND COOLER AIR ADVECTING INTO
FCA ASSOC WITH SFC HIGH OVER ONT/QB.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY A ZONAL FLOW OVER N TIER OF USA IS REPLACED BY A
BUILDING 500 HPA RIDGE. THE GFS KEEPS MST OF THE ENERGY IN A
500HPA CUT OFF OVER S MISS VLY...WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS SOME TO
THE REGION AS A SHORT WV ACROSS FCA TUE.

AT SAME TIME MON SFC FRONT REMAINS STALLED S OF FCA...WITH THREAT
OF SHRA AND CLOUDS ACROSS S TIER. BYND MON MOST OF THE GUID TAKES
CDFNT FAR ENOUGH S AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS E ACROSS S ONT/QB
AND N NYS AND NEW ENG TO ALLOW FOR FAIR CONDS WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND TO SET UP. HWVR THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FCA...AS A
HUNDRED MILES ONE WAY OR THE OTHER WILL RESULT IN SIG CHANGES TO
THE EFP. TEMPS WILL BEGIN PD BLOW NORMAL AND END SLIGHTLY ABV
NORMALS.

WILL POP GRIDS WITH HPC WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RESULTED IN WIDESPREAD
IFR/MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU TAF SITES...THESE CIGS
COULD LINGER UNTIL AROUND 14Z AND HAVE INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS AT ALL
THE TAF SITES FOR IFR CIGS (MVFR AT KPOU) BETWEEN 12Z AND 14Z.
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH AT
LEAST MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG
TO POSSIBLE SEVERE WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED NATURE OF THE CONVECTION AND DIFFICULTY PINING DOWN THE
TIMING OF POSSIBLE CONVECTION AT THE TAF SITES...HAVE ONLY INCLUDED
VCSH IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. AFTER ABOUT 22Z EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR
TO CLEAR SKIES THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT...THEN HAVE INCLUDED THE
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
FORMATION...ESPECIALLY AT THOSE LOCATIONS THAT GET PCPN THIS AFTN.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 8 KTS OR
LESS THROUGH 13Z-14Z...THE WINDS SHOULD PICKUP TO 8 TO 12 KTS...
THEN SWITCH TO WESTERLY BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z WITH GUSTS OF 15 TO 18
KTS AFTER THAT. AFTER 00Z WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH AND BECOME
LIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN WEEKS MOST OF FCA HAS HAD OVER A QUARTER OF
AN INCH OF RAIN. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH
THIS PERIOD.

RH VALUES WILL DROP TO 45 TO 60 PCT THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE RETURNING
TO NEAR 100 PCT TONIGHT. THEY WILL FALL TO 30 TO 45 PCT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT BECOMING SOUTH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AROUND 10 MPH.

ANOTHER FRONT COLD FRONT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR
LATE SAT INTO SUN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH GENERALLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO SAT MORNING. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE REGION LATE SAT INTO SUNDAY
AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND MANY AREAS COULD SEE A HALF
AN INCH TO AN INCH OF MUCH NEEDED RAIN.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SNYDER
NEAR TERM...GJM
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...KL/SNYDER/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/SNYDER/WASULA



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