Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 292325
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
725 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly fair and seasonable weather is forecast for Saturday
before a storm system approaching from the Ohio valley brings a
threat of widespread showers and thunderstorms on Sunday and
Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
As of 725 PM EDT, the surface dew point boundary was located from
the central Mohawk Valley south and east to northern Dutchess CO
and into north central Litchfield CO, and continuing to press
south and west. Still some Cu along this boundary, although most
of the showers have moved south and east of the region, still can
not rule out an isolated shower developing along this boundary
across portions of the eastern Catskills/mid Hudson Valley, and
perhaps southern Taconics and Litchfield CO through 9 PM.

Once convective clouds mix out, the sky should be mostly clear
and there could be some patchy fog but with the falling dew
points, coverage of fog may not be enough to acknowledge in
forecast. Some trapped boundary layer moisture could become some
intervals of clouds in some places. Still, with the gradual drying
conditions and light to calm winds, lows in the 50s to lower
60s...few mid 60s southern areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
Partly to mostly sunny Saturday morning until convective
temperatures are reached. Lingering boundary layer moisture and
the beginning advance of upper energy approaching from the west
could support an isolated afternoon shower or thunderstorm,
especially in the Schoharie Valley through the eastern Catskills.
Highs Saturday in the lower to mid 80s, some 70s southern
Adirondacks.

Saturday night through Monday, upper energy and a developing
southern to southeasterly low level jet segment along with a
surface low developing along the old frontal boundary to our
south will support rain and scattered thunderstorms over our
region. Quite a bit of uncertainty as to how far north the heavier
and steadier rain gets but most areas should see enough rain to
help water everything that has been suffering during the dry
summer.

One area of enhanced rainfall is timed for late Saturday night and
Sunday. Then there may be a break and another area of enhanced
rainfall Sunday night into early Monday but again quite a bit of
uncertainty with regard to the specifics of track and timing of
features supporting enhanced rainfall. There are some hints that
some of the rain Sunday could induce some diabatic cooling to the
north of the old frontal boundary and high temperatures with the
cloud cover and rain should be in the 70s. Monday, with the
prospect of rain exiting late, looks like highs a few degrees
warmer than Sunday.

If the rain tracks further south, then cooler and rainier to the
south and warmer with some possible breaks of sun in the north.
Still time to watch how everything evolves.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Tuesday begins with a positively tilted upper level trough and
cyclonic flow at 850mb. Skies will likely be partly cloudy as models
show high RHs. Cold pool aloft and convergence near the surface
should lead to some shower or thunderstorm development later in the
day. Showers should be isolated as rising heights aloft should
gradually reduce instability. Lows in the 50s and 60s and highs in
the 70s to around 80.

Wednesday and Thursday are forecast to be fair and warm as high
pressure drifts across the forecast area. Lows in the 50s and 60s
with highs in the upper 70s to upper 80s.

Friday looks mainly fair and hot as strong warm air advection on the
back side of surface high pressure takes hold. An approaching cold
front may trigger some afternoon or evening showers or thunderstorms
depending on timing/speed of front. Lows mainly in the 60s with
highs mainly in the 80s to near 90.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A weak secondary cold front will settle south of the TAF sites
early this evening. High pressure will briefly build in for late
tonight and early Saturday, before a warm front approaches from
the southwest for late Saturday.

VFR conditions will predominate during the next 24 hours. Some
patchy MVFR/IFR mist may form after 08Z/SAT at KPSF/KGFL, but with
slight mixing behind the aforementioned front, the overall
probability for this is low and duration may be brief. So no
mention in forecast at this time, but later forecasts may need
mention for at least a few TEMPO groups at KGFL and KPSF between
roughly 08Z-11Z/Sat.

Some showers may approach KALB and KPOU late Saturday afternoon as
the warm front approaches from the southwest. Otherwise, expect
mainly dry conditions Saturday with just an increase in mid level
clouds.

Winds will be north to northeast at 5-10 KT early this evening
behind the front, then will become light/variable later tonight.
On Saturday, winds will be mainly northeast to east at 5-10 KT.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Mainly fair and seasonable weather is forecast for Saturday
before a storm system approaching from the Ohio valley brings a
threat of widespread showers and thunderstorms on Sunday and
Monday.

Relative humidity values will recover to 85 to 100 percent
tonight, and drop to 40 to 60 percent on Saturday. RH values
increase again to 80 to 100 percent Saturday night and with rain
expected Sunday, afternoon RH values drop to 70 to 80 percent.

Winds will be north to northeast at less than 15 mph today
through Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Much of the region is currently running 3 to 8 inches below normal
on annual rainfall. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, much of
the area is considered abnormally dry (category D0), and parts of
the Catskills and western New England are within a moderate drought
(category D1).

Rain fell across the southeast part of the forecast area last
night and early this morning. based on reports, most locations
received a quarter inch or less with some isolated reports around
three quarters of an inch. There were some scattered thunderstorms
over the southern adirondacks yesterday afternoon which produced
some local amounts around three quarters of an inch.

Dry weather returns through Saturday, with the next chance of
showers and thunderstorms arriving late Saturday night into Sunday
with the chances for showers and thunderstorms lingering into
early next week. Rainfall amounts in many areas could range
between a quarter inch and an inch through Monday with local
amounts possibly up to 2 inches. This long duration rainfall would
only produce minor rises in area rivers if this much rain does
occur.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...KL/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...SND
AVIATION...SND/KL
FIRE WEATHER...NAS
HYDROLOGY...NAS



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