Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 290908
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
508 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE TODAY WHEN HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN VALLEY AREAS REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 445 AM EDT...ONLY SOME HIGH THIN CLOUDS OVER THE REGION...
WITH WARM AND STICKY CONDITIONS PREVAILING. SOME PATCHY/AREAS OF
FOG OVER THE REGION...BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS TUESDAY MORNING.

SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID
80S TO MID 90S. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S...BUT IN THE LOW OR MID 60S THIS AFTERNOON...
WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING THE LOW OR MID 90S
ACROSS MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY THE HUDSON VALLEY FROM
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH. SINCE HEAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW 100...NO HEAT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IT WILL REMAIN VERY WARM AND HUMID TONIGHT WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. LATE TONIGHT CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
TO INCREASE ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY.

ON THURSDAY...A COLD FRONT...AND/OR POSSIBLE PREFRONTAL TROUGH
STILL FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS
ARE MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH FASTER THAN EARLIER RUNS. AS A
RESULT...HAVE SPEED UP THE ARRIVAL AND DEPARTURE OF THE SHOWERS.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN AREAS BY MID MORNING...
REACHING EASTERN AREAS BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. SPC HAS OUTLOOKED
OUR AREA WITH A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...AND HAVE
HIGHLIGHTED THAT IN THE HWOALY PRODUCT. HOWEVER...THE FASTER
MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN MUCH OF THE SHOWER/TSTM
ACTIVITY OCCURRING BEFORE THE PEAK HEATING TIME OF MID/LATE AFTN.
THIS SHOULD REDUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY SEVERE CONVECTION...
ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN AREAS. ALTHOUGH WE WILL BE IN THE SAME
AIRMASS MOST OF THURSDAY...THE ARRIVAL OF THE CLOUDS/SHOWERS/COLD
FRONT SHOULD LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING SOMEWHAT...WITH HIGHS EXPECTED
TO BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY. HAVE FORECAST HIGHS
GENERALLY BETWEEN 80 AND 90.

ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA SHOULD END EARLY THURSDAY EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
CLEARING SKIES AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AND DRIER AIR. LOWS THURSDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

ON FRIDAY IT WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AS A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S
AND 80S...WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

THE PERIOD STARTS OUT FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONED ACROSS NORTHEAST CONUS. A SURFACE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WILL CROSS THE
REGION ON SATURDAY. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY ALONG WITH A
DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AS OF NOW IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE
SOMEWHAT GREATER COVERAGE FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTHWARD...AND
ESPECIALLY INTO THE ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION.

THE PATTERN ALOFT LOOKS TO REMAIN FAIRLY STAGNANT THROUGH REST OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD ENDING TUESDAY....WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.
FAST-MOVING AND SUBTLE DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE BROAD
TROUGH...PROVIDING PERIODIC ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE OF PRECIP IS LOW.
AS OF NOW IT LOOKS LIKE SUNDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH SUBTLE SURFACE
RIDGING OVER THE REGION...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ON MONDAY WITH A DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH. YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
AND SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY CROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY...PROVIDING ADDITION CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS.

OVERALL DESPITE A BROAD TROUGH PARKED OVER THE REGION...TEMPERATURES
STILL LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. IT WILL
BE COOLER THAN THE RECENT SPELL OF VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION INTO
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FOR
THURSDAY.

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING EXCEPT FOR
SOME SCT HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS. TEMP/DEWPOINT DIFFERENCES
LOWERING ENOUGH SO THAT FOG WILL LIKELY FORM BETWEEN 07Z-10Z. WILL
MENTION IFR CONDITIONS AT KGFL/KPSF...WITH EVEN A FEW HOURS OF IFR
AT KPOU POSSIBLE. DESPITE FOG OCCURRING YESTERDAY MORNING AT
KALB...WILL ONLY MENTION MVFR CONDITIONS SINCE THERE IS STILL A
SOUTH BREEZE AT 5 KT PERSISTING WHICH IS KEEPING TEMP/DEWPOINT
DIFFERENCE AT 15 DEGREES AT THIS HOUR. SO IT SHOULD BE DIFFICULT
TO REACH SATURATION THERE RESULTING IN THICK FOG FORMATION.

FOG/LOW STRATUS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND 13Z...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING THEREAFTER WITH JUST A FEW CU...AND FEW-SCT
CIRRUS AROUND IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE MID
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD INHIBIT ANY SHRA/TSRA FROM
DEVELOPING.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-6
KT BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HOT AND HUMID WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT REMAINS OVER THE REGION.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. THE WARMEST DAY WILL BE TODAY WHEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN VALLEY AREAS REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S.

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE 40-50 PERCENT RANGE
THIS AFTERNOON...THEN TO 90-100 PERCENT TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST BY THIS AFTERNOON AT 5-10
MPH....THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO LARGE STEM RIVER FLOODING IS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN FROM THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY MAY CAUSE PONDING
OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AREAS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
HERE ARE THE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES AND YEAR OF OCCURRENCE FOR
THESE DATES...

JULY 29TH... ALBANY NY: 97 DEGREES 1894
GLENS FALLS: 96 DEGREES 1959
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 95 DEGREES 1949

JULY 30TH...
ALBANY NY: 100 DEGREES 1933
GLENS FALLS: 94 DEGREES 1949
POUGHKEEPSIE NY: 96 DEGREES 1949

NOTE THE DAILY RECORDS DATE BACK TO 1874 AT ALBANY NY AND TO 1949
FOR BOTH GLENS FALLS AND POUGHKEEPSIE NY.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GJM
NEAR TERM...GJM/WASULA
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...JPV
FIRE WEATHER...KL/GJM
HYDROLOGY...KL/GJM
CLIMATE...


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