Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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958
FXUS61 KALY 281416
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
1016 AM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Despite abundant cloud cover, temperatures will be milder
today than the past few days.  In addition, an approaching cold
front will allow for some rain showers, especially during the
afternoon hours.  Behind the cold front, drier weather will return
for Wednesday and Thursday with some breaks in the cloud cover.
Another storm system with rain or snow will impact the region on
Friday into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1015 AM EDT, scattered showers have developed reached
portions of the mid Hudson Valley region and will likely extend
into NW CT and SW MA over the next 1-2 hours, in association
with backing low/mid level winds and increasing isentropic lift
ahead of Ohio Valley shortwave which is translating east.
Additional areas of light rain are expanding across south
central NYS. We expect this light rainfall to continue expanding
northeast through this afternoon, when it should encompass many
areas from the Mohawk Valley region south and east. Some lighter
showers/sprinkles may also develop across portions of the
western/southern Adirondacks, as some moisture associated with
Ohio Valley way transports northward and gets lifted by incoming
northern stream shortwave which is currently digging north of
the Great Lakes and translating east.

Meanwhile, some breaks in the clouds have developed, especially
across portions of the western Adirondacks. These breaks are
expected to continue through around noontime, before filling in
this afternoon.

Our region will be placed within dual jet structure later this
afternoon, with one departing upper level jetlet translating
east across Maine and into the Canadian Maritimes, with a second
upper level jet translating east southeast into the Great Lakes
region, so upper level support will be increasing for ascent
this afternoon.

Rain showers will be fairly light for the most part, although
with PWATS rising up to around an inch by later today, cannot
totally rule out a heavier burst late today. The latest NAM12
and GFS20 all suggest the best elevated instability will remain
south of the area, so won`t include any thunder with the showers
at this time either.

Despite the clouds/showers, warming temps aloft will help boost
sfc temps much warmer than recent days. Temps look to reach the
mid 40s to low 50s by late today for the whole area. Warmest
temps may actually occur across portions of the Adirondacks,
where more breaks in the clouds are expected through midday.
Winds will continue to be fairly light.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Showers will be ending from west to east this evening as the
storm system starts to move away from the area. However, it will
stay fairly cloudy into the overnight hours, as lingering low
level moisture will get trapped and there really won`t be much
clearing until very late tonight or early tomorrow morning. As a
result of the clouds, temps will only fall into the upper 20s to
upper 30s, with the bulk of the region remaining above freezing.
Cannot rule out a lingering rain or snow showers over the
Adirondacks and southern Green Mountains later tonight thanks to
the nearby upper level trough, but most areas should be drying
out.

On Wednesday, clearing will occur during the morning and
northwest winds will start to pick up. Despite being behind the
front, good mixing and a partly sunny sky will allow temps to
reach into the 40s to mid 50s across most areas. It should be
dry for most areas, but again totally can`t rule out a brief
rain or snow shower over the highest terrain, as temps aloft
crash throughout the day.

Chilly and dry weather is expected for Wednesday night with a
partly to mostly clear sky. Lows will be in the 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Active period of weather expected in the long term forecast period
to be followed by somewhat tranquil period of weather for the first
weekend of April.

We begin on with a tranquil note as large surface high transferring
across southern Canada extends its influence across our region
through Thursday.  While H850 temperatures are expected to remain
below 0C, under late March partial sunshine, temperatures should
moderate into the 40s and perhaps touch 50F for valley locations.

This all changes Thursday night into Friday as storm system
currently tracking across the four-corners region approaches the
Ohio Valley region.  Impressive moisture transport from the Gulf of
Mexico and isentropic lift commences Thursday night into Friday
morning. Thermal profiles along with low level ageostrophic flow
from the northeast should keep temperatures mainly cold enough for
light snow to evolve from southwest to northeast overnight into the
Friday morning commute. QPF from the global models are a bit high
with values approaching half an inch by late Friday morning.
Assuming this falls as mainly snow, several inches of accumulation
are possible before a transition to rain occurs Friday afternoon.
However, thermal profiles differ with respect to the
ECMWF/GFS/Canadian from warm to cold, respectfully.  Then
differences become more apparent as the Canadian is the slowest with
the departure of this system Friday night with the ECMWF the most
progressive.  We followed a blended approach from WPC and model-
blends.

The weekend appears to be generally tranquil with a broad cyclonic
flow and maybe a weak short wave or two for some terrain based
showers.  Otherwise, as we enter the month of April, high
temperatures should moderate through the 40s and even some lower 50s
where enough breaks in the overcast do occur.

Looking just beyond the long term, another active period of weather
appears to be on the horizon for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Based on the latest KENX radar data, mainly dry weather is
expected over the next few hours, but plenty of low-level
moisture will lead to occasional IFR conditions due to low
stratus and fog, especially for KPSF/KGFL.

Some improvement in ceiling heights and visibility is expected
by mid-morning with a brief return to VFR/MVFR, however, some
showers are expected by the afternoon hours. IFR conditions are
possible within any rain showers Tuesday afternoon, otherwise
expect primarily MVFR conditions.

Rain showers should end around 00z Wednesday, although it will
remain ovc into Tuesday night due to lingering low level
moisture. Some MVFR/IFR conditions due to fog and low clouds are
likely once again tonight since there won`t be enough flow just
yet to get the drier air in until the day on Wednesday.

Outlook...

Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy.
Wednesday Night to Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of RA...SN.
Friday-Friday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely RA...SN.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Much of eastern New York and western New England continues to
have snow on the ground. Some of the valley areas have bare
patches, but the mountains have a deep snow pack. A moist and
damp air mass will be in place today with light winds, as a
cold front and a weak disturbance will bring some showers
through early this evening. High pressure will build in for the
mid-week into Thursday with cooler and drier weather. Some wind
gusts could reach around 25 mph on Wednesday, although RH values
won`t be very low at all.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Some rain showers are expected today with the passage of a cold
front, especially for the afternoon and early evening hours.
Additional rainfall will range from a tenth of an inch or so
over the northern basins to a third of an inch over the the mid-
Hudson Valley and NW CT. This rainfall, along with the expected
snowmelt, will cause some within bank rises on rivers and
streams. However, this rain and snowmelt is not likely to
produce any concern for flooding at this time. The latest MMEFS
guidance and official forecasts have a few points getting to
close or up to the alert or action stage, but no flooding is
forecast.

Flows will recede Tuesday night through the mid-week with a
colder and drier air mas building in. Temps are expected to go
below freezing Wed night and Thu night with a normal diurnal
melting of the snowpack in spots.

Some additional precipitation in the form of rain and snow is
expected for Friday into Saturday with another storm system.
There is some uncertainty with the track and the amount of
moisture associated with it. It be could be a moderate to heavy
precipitation event, but it is a low confidence forecast at
this time.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis/KL
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...Frugis
FIRE WEATHER...Frugis/Wasula
HYDROLOGY...Frugis/Wasula



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