Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 231719
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
120 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE
REGION WITH A FEW LEFTOVER SHOWERS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE IMMEDIATE
CAPITAL REGION AS WE GO INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE IT
WILL BE BLUSTERY TODAY. TONIGHT A BREEZE WILL CONTINUE AS IT CLEARS
AND TURNS COLD. SUNSHINE WILL MODERATE TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY BUT
THE BREEZE WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1 PM...RAIN SHOWERS ARE NOW IN MUCH LESS COVERAGE ACROSS THE
REGION THAN EARLIER THIS MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS
AREAS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY...SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND THE
LITCHFIELD HILLS AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OUT
OF THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WITH FILTERED
SUNSHINE FROM THE IMMEDIATE CAPITAL REGION POINTS NORTH AND WEST.
HOWEVER CLOUD COVERAGE WILL HAVE A FIRM GRIP ACROSS THE REGION
GOING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER
40S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S IN
MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS...MID 50S MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER
LITCHFIELD WITH A LITTLE MORE SUNSHINE.

A NORTHWEST WIND WILL AVERAGE 10-20 MPH...GUSTING UP TO 30-40 MPH
BY AFTERNOON...WITH THE STRONGEST GUSTS IN THE USUAL PLACES OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT...HIGHER TERRAIN AND MOHAWK VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THE UPPER AIR LOW WILL MOVE BY WELL TO OUR EAST TONIGHT...BUT IT
WILL "CAPTURE" A SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF OF MAINE. THIS PROCESS WILL
STEEPEN THE GRADIENT TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW PROVIDING OUR REGION WITH
MORE WIND. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO BETWEEN -4 TO -8 C
OVERNIGHT. EVEN THOUGH MOST PLACES WILL NOT DECOUPLE...IT WILL TURN
COLD AS THE SKY GENERALLY CLEARS. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES AROUND
30 IN THE VALLEYS...MID TO UPPER 20S VALLEY LOCATIONS. THE WIND WILL
ADD TO THE CHILL...MAKING APPARENT TEMPERATURES FEEL ABOUT 10
DEGREES COLDER.

THURSDAY WILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. H850 TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE A LITTLE TOWARD 0C. THE STIFF BREEZE WILL
CONTINUE...AVERAGING 10 TO 15 MPH ONCE MORE...WITH GUSTS UP TO
AROUND 30 MPH OR BETTER. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE...CLIMBING TO 55 TO 60 DEGREES IN MOST VALLEY
LOCATIONS...UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE OCEAN STORM WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH AWAY TO
LOOSE IT GRIP ON OUR REGION. THE WIND WILL RELAX. THERE MIGHT BE
SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING LATE BUT EITHER WAY...THERE WILL BE MORE
OPPORTUNITY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING...DESPITE CONTINUED WARMING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. LOOK FOR LOW TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO TONIGHT/S
MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.

FRIDAY...THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW FAST THAT
RAIN FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM...A WARM FRONT...WILL REACH THE AREA. THE
00Z GFS AND NAM WERE A LITTLE FASTER BRINGING RAIN INTO THE REGION
BEFORE THE END OF THE DAY FRIDAY. THE 00Z EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN
MODELS ON THE OTHER HAND...WERE A LITTLE SLOWER WITH RAIN NOT
REACHING OUR AREA UNTIL AFTER DARK.

FOR NOW...WE COMPROMISED BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS...LOWING CHANCES
TO SLIGHT FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD...WITH LOW CHANCES TO THE
WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOW FAST RAIN SPREADS INTO THE REGION
WILL HELP DICTATE HOW MILD IT GETS. FOR NOW...WE KEPT THE THINKING
THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH AROUND 60 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND
VALLEYS FURTHER EAST...WHILE HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S TO THE WEST OF THE HUDSON VALLEY AND HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
EAST AS WELL. IF THE RAIN WERE TO COME IN FASTER...THESE NUMBERS
WOULD LIKELY HAVE TO BE LOWERED A LITTLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS 00Z
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED AND BLOCKING
PATTERN THAT WILL LIKELY LAST INTO MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

WE BEGIN THE WEEKEND WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE UPPER LOW THAT IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ALONG THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY.  THIS WOULD PLACE
THE HIGHER CHC-SCT POPS MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I90.
THEREAFTER...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS LATEST NEW TRENDS ARE FOR A
NOW A DRIER SUNDAY AS LARGE SURFACE HIGH ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA
EXTENDS ITS INFLUENCE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.  WE WILL LOWER POPS THROUGH SUNDAY FOR MOST OF THE REGION.
H850 TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO DROP BELOW 0C WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE
EXPECTED.  THIS WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF
THIS LAST WEEKEND OF APRIL.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE ECMWF REMAINS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A LESS PRONOUNCED RIDGE OVER THE REGION WHEN
COMPARED TO THE GGEM/GFS/DGEX WHICH WOULD BRING HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
WET CONDITIONS.  FOR NOW...WITH A REX BLOCK DEVELOPING AND A DEEPER
MOISTURE TRANSPORT ADVECTING NORTHWARD...WE WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS WE LEAN TOWARD THE
ECMWF/WPC GUIDANCE /SEE PMDEPD FOR FURTHER DETAILS/.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN DURING THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE STRONG
NORTHWEST WINDS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROF IS EXITING THE AREA AND
SHOWERS AT KGFL/KALB HAVE ENDED. LINGERING SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE AT
KPSF/KPOU THROUGH AROUND 20Z...BUT KPOU WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS
EVEN IF SOME -SHRA OCCUR. AT KPSF HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR
MVFR CONDITIONS IN -SHRA BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z. AFTER 20Z EXPECT VFR
CIGS/VSBYS AT ALL THE TAF SITES THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY.

NORTHWEST WINDS AT ALL THE TAF SITES WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KTS
WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 32 KTS. THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOMEWHAT TONIGHT
TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 16 TO 24 KTS...THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON
THURSDAY TO 14 TO 20 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KTS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY TO FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. ISOLATED SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 30-45 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...

     WIND GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH...AND RH VALUES OF 15-25 PERCENT ON
THURSDAY...

WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT...AS OF 430 AM EDT...MOST AREAS DID NOT COME CLOSE TO
REACHING A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT.

THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TODAY AS AN
UPPER AIR LOW MOVES THROUGH EARLY...EXITING LATER TODAY.
HOWEVER...IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT THESE SHOWERS (EVEN WHEN COMBINED WITH
THOSE OF LAST NIGHT) WILL ADD UP TO A QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF
RAINFALL.

MINIMUM RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE 30
PERCENT...GENERALLY IN THE 35-50 PERCENT RANGE.

THE NORTHWEST WIND WILL DIMINISH TO A BREEZE TONIGHT BUT IN MOST
PLACES...WILL NOT BECOME LIGHT. THE WIND WILL AVERAGE 5 TO 15 MPH
WITH THOSE HIGHER EVENING GUSTS. A FULL RECOVER IS NOT GOING TO
HAPPEN TONIGHT AS RH VALUES PEAK AROUND 75 PERCENT IN MOST PLACES.

THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. SUNSHINE WILL
PREVAIL AND TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY REACH ABOVE 50F (EXCEPT IN
THE ADIRONDACKS AND SOUTHERN VERMONT). A NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL STILL
BE THERE...GUSTING 25-35 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. MINIMUM AFTERNOON
RH VALUES LOOK TO TUMBLE INTO THE 20S MOST AREAS (AROUND 30 SOUTHERN
VERMONT AND ADIRONDACKS) BUT MIGHT EVEN DIP INTO THE TEENS IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LOWER LITCHFIELD. IT WILL BE MORE THAN FIVE
DAYS WITHOUT A QUARTER INCH OF RAINFALL ACROSS MOST OF OUR REGION.


OUR OFFICE WILL COORDINATE WITH THE STATE LIAISON OFFICIALS
CONCERNING ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO SIGNIFICANT HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED...BEFORE BECOMING MORE
SCATTERED BY WED AFTN. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THU-THU NT...BEFORE SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOP LATE FRI INTO
SAT. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT MOST RAINFALL AMTS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH THROUGH WED AM. THESE RAINFALL
AMTS SHOULD HAVE LITTLE...IF ANY IMPACT ON AREA RIVERS AND
STREAMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LFM/JPV
NEAR TERM...HWJIV/LFM/JPV
SHORT TERM...HWJIV
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...GJM
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...HWJIV/KL










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