Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 120016
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
716 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...WITH SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES ENDING THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY...BEFORE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DRIVES
THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SNOW SHOWERS AND SQUALLS. IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT...WINDY AND BITTERLY COLD AIR WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 630 PM EST...A SHORTWAVE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE REGION. NOW
THAT THE SUN HAS SET...CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE DECREASING IN
AREAL COVERAGE...ESP IN VALLEY AREAS...WHILE PERSISTING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SCHOHARIE VALLEY/EASTERN CATSKILLS AND FAR WESTERN
MOHAWK VALLEY...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN
AND WESTERN MA. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWBANDS HAVE MAINLY SHIFTED
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE HERKIMER CO...SO HAVE ALLOWED THE LES
ADVISORY TO END FOR HERKIMER CO.

ALSO...DEEP MIXING HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME WIND GUSTS TO REACH AROUND
40 MPH...ESP WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE MOHAWK RIVER
VALLEY/CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES. THESE GUSTS MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH AROUND 9 PM...BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING.
EVENTUALLY...AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS A WEAK LOW LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION...WINDS SHOULD BECOME MUCH LIGHTER ACROSS THE
REGION.

THE SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH AN ADDITIONAL
1-2 INCHES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SCHOHARIE/SOUTHWEST ALBANY CO...AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN GREENS AND BERKSHIRES...WITH A COATING TO LESS THAN AN
INCH POSSIBLE IN SOME VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY.

LATER THIS EVENING...EXPECT SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR...EXCEPT
FOR LINGERING CLOUDS ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS...WHERE SOME
FLURRIES COULD ALSO REMAIN.

TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS FOR MOST AREAS BY
DAYBREAK FRIDAY...WITH SOME SUBZERO MINS LIKELY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN SOUTHERN VT/WESTERN MA...AND
POSSIBLY PORTIONS OF THE UPPER HUDSON VALLEY...AS THE WIND MAY
BRIEFLY TREND TO CALM.

BEFORE WINDS DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING...SOME WIND CHILL VALUES
COULD DIP INTO THE -5 TO -15 RANGE...WITH THE COLDEST WIND CHILLS
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
     WIND CHILL WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY-SUNDAY MORNING FOR
ALL AREAS...

FRIDAY...A LOW LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE
REGION...PROVIDING SOME SUNSHINE IN THE MORNING...BEFORE CLOUDS
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON. A SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY INDUCE SOME LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN HERKIMER CO AT TIMES IN
THE MORNING...BEFORE THE FLOW BACKS FURTHER AND ALLOWS SNOW
SHOWERS TO FOCUS MAINLY NORTH OF THIS REGION. TEMPS SHOULD WARM
INTO THE MID TEENS TO LOWER/MID 20S.

FRIDAY NIGHT...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT...INITIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND CLOSER TO DAYBREAK
SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHEAST AREAS. BEFORE THIS FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...THE COMBINATION OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW...AND ACTUAL
SNOWBANDS WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN HERKIMER/NW
HAMILTON COS BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING. IT APPEARS THAT THIS
SNOWBAND WILL BE FAIRLY MIGRATORY ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...AS THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT MERGES AND PUSHES IT
SOUTHWARD. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY LEVELS OF SNOWFALL
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN HERKIMER CO...MAINLY NORTH OF ROUTE 28 FRIDAY
EVENING...BEFORE ANY SNOWBAND SHIFTS SOUTHWARD WITH THE FRONT. AT
THIS TIME...NO HEADLINES...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
ADVISORIES IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES FURTHER FOR MODERATE OR
GREATER SNOWFALL AMTS ACROSS THIS REGION. TEMPS SHOULD FALL
QUICKLY BY SUNRISE SATURDAY...INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER
TEENS...EXCEPT FOR ZERO TO 10 BELOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...THE MAIN STORY WILL BE DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND
CHILLS DURING THIS PERIOD...AS BITTERLY COLD AIR AND STRONG WINDS
DRIVE THROUGH THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC
FRONT. SAT TEMPS MAY FALL THROUGH THE DAY...AFTER INITIAL MAXES OF
5-10 ABOVE ZERO IN VALLEYS...AND ZERO TO 10 BELOW ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. STRONG WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS MAY GUST INTO THE 30-45
MPH RANGE...OR EVEN HIGHER SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. THEN...MIN TEMPS
SAT NT/SUN AM SHOULD FALL WELL BELOW ZERO IN ALL AREAS...WITH -10
TO -20 LIKELY FOR MOST AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...AND
HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. COMBINED WITH BRISK WINDS...EXPECT WIND CHILL VALUES TO
FALL INTO THE -20 TO -35 RANGE FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND -35 TO
-45 RANGE ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS SAT NT/SUN AM...COLDEST ACROSS
THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. GIVEN THE FACT THAT IT HAS BEEN AN
EXCEPTIONALLY WARM WINTER THUS FAR...THE IMPACTS OF THIS BITTER
COLD OUTBREAK WILL BE EVEN MORE DANGEROUS AND DOWNRIGHT LIFE
THREATENING. PLEASE REFER TO OUR SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS/SPS/
AND/OR PNS/PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS/ FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS
AND COLD WEATHER SAFETY TIPS DURING THIS EXTREME COLD OUTBREAK.
SUNDAY TEMPS WILL EVENTUALLY RECOVER SLIGHTLY TO SINGLE DIGITS
ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO...BUT WITH LESS WIND BY LATER SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AS FAR AS ANY SNOW...SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
DUE TO LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WITH THE CORE OF THE COLD POOL
PASSING NEARBY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE BRUNT OF ANY MORE
SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL WEST OF OUR REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES A COLD START TO THE WEEK...BUT THEN A
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM MAY BRING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF HEAVY
PCPN...AND WINDY CONDITIONS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...A FRIGID AIR MASS WILL STILL BE IMPACTING
THE REGION...AS THE SFC ANTICYCLONE SETTLES OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND.
THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT TO CALM.  SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY
START TO INCREASE TOWARDS DAYBREAK.  LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE ZERO TO
10 BELOW...EXCEPT OVER THE SRN DACKS WHERE SOME 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO
READINGS ARE POSSIBLE...AND ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ACROSS NW CT...THE MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND THE SRN TACONICS.  MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
CONTINUE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST WELL IN ADVANCE OF A
WARM FRONT OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO THE OH VALLEY. THE
SFC HIGH WILL DRIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.  LOW AND MID LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING.  SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY REACH LOCATIONS
WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND SOUTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION
LATE IN THE DAY.  CHC POPS WERE INCLUDED IN THESE AREAS.  ANY SNOW
ACCUMS WILL ON THE LIGHT SIDE OF AN INCH OR LESS.  HIGHS WILL STILL
BE BELOW NORMAL BY ABOUT 10 DEGS...AS IT WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE
SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR TO SCOUR OUT.  HIGHS FROM THE SUPERBLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO M20S IN THE VALLEYS...AND TEENS TO
AROUND 20F OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...GOOD CONSENSUS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE
DETERMINISTIC...ENSEMBLE...AND WPC GUIDANCE THAT A SIGNIFICANT
CYCLONE WILL ORGANIZE OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY/SOUTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT.  AN H500 LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE TURNING NEGATIVELY
TITLED...AND SOME NRN STREAM ENERGY MAY PHASE WITH THE SRN STREAM OF
THE UPPER JET.  A MORE PRONOUNCED WARM FRONT WILL BE EXTENDING N/NE
OF THE SFC CYCLONE.  AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF OVER RUNNING PCPN WILL
CONTINUE OVER ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND.  POPS WERE KEPT IN THE
HIGH CHC/LIKELY CATEGORY MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING.  THE
STRONG LIFT...AND VERTICAL THERMO PROFILES/CRITICAL PARTIAL
THICKNESSES FAVOR SNOW FOR THE PTYPE PRIOR TO DAYBREAK TUE. SNOW
AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE OF A FEW INCHES AT THIS
POINT. LOWS MAY START OUT IN THE TEENS AND L20S...AND SLOWLY RISE.

BY TUE MORNING...THE LATEST GEFS MSLP MEAN HAS A SFC CYCLONE OVER
THE CAROLINAS.  THE LATEST WPC DAY 5 HAS IT ON THE NC/SC BORDER.  IT
IS GOING TO TAKE SOME TIME BEFORE THE COLD AIR SCOURS OUT...MUCH OF
THE MORNING WILL LIKELY BEGIN AS SNOWFALL...BUT A STRENGTHENING H850
LLJ OF 50-70 KTS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION...AND TRANSITION SNOW TO
MIXED PCPN/RAIN DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE TUE. THE
SOUTHERLY WIND ANOMALIES /+V-COMPONENT OF THE WIND/ INCREASE TO 1 TO
3 STD DEVS ABOVE NORMAL. PWATS ARE ABOVE NORMAL. THE QUESTION
REMAINS WHERE THE CYCLONE TRACKS.  THE LATEST ECMWF IS VERY
PROGRESSIVE...WITH THE H500 NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH CAPTURING THE
CYCLONE...AND ALLOWING IT TO TRACK WELL WEST OF THE REGION OVER W-
CNTRL NY. THIS WOULD BE A WARM SOLUTION WITH WET...AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. THE GFS/CAN GGEM ARE FURTHER EAST HAVING THE CYCLONE
TRACK EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY /12Z GFS/ OR EAST OF THE CT
RIVER VALLEY /12Z CAN GGEM AND 12Z GEFS MEAN/. THE TRACK WILL PLAY A
BIG ROLE ON THE PTYPE.  OUR FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE AND WPC...WHICH ALLOWS FOR A TRANSITION TO RAIN
OVER MOST OF THE REGION...EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS THE SRN DACKS.  SOME
SLEET OR FZRA MAY BE POSSIBLE TOO...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF
ALY.  TOTAL QPF MAY EXCEED AN INCH OR MORE ON TUE.
HIGHS MAY REACH THE U30S TO L40S FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND
EAST...AND U20S TO M30S TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

TUE NIGHT INTO WED...TRICKY FCST CONTINUES HINGING ON THE TRACK OF
THE SYSTEM.  THE PCPN COULD QUICKLY TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW TUE
NIGHT...IF THE LOW TRACKS EAST OF THE CT RIVER VALLEY.  SOME HVY WET
SNOW WOULD BE POSSIBLE.  OUR FCST REFLECTS A RAIN TO SNOW
TRANSITION...AS THE COLD CONVEYOR BELT KICKS IN.  ADDITIONAL HVY QPF
IS POSSIBLE.  TOTAL QPF MAY BE IN THE INCH PLUS RANGE ONCE AGAIN
OVER THE FCST AREA.  OVERALL...WPC GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A 1-3 INCH
QPF EVENT IS POSSIBLE.  IF THE HVY RAINFALL MATERIALIZES...IT MAY
CAUSE FLOODING ON THE FROZEN  GROUND.  A MULTI-HAZARD EVENT IS
SHAPING UP MON NIGHT INTO EARLY WED...AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WX OUTLOOK.  MID AND UPPER DEFORMATION ZONE
LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO WED.  LOWS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S WITH HIGHS IN THE U20S TO L30S NORTH AND
WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT...AND M30S TO AROUND 40F FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST.

WED NIGHT INTO THU...A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WED NIGHT WITH A
SLIGHT TO LOW CHC OF SNOW SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM SE
ONTARIO...AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR THU WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
FOR MID-FEB /5-10 DEGS/. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO L20S /FEW SINGLE
DIGITS OVER THE SRN DACKS/...AND HIGHS IN THE 20S TO L30S.

OVERALL...TEMPS WILL STILL RUN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE STRETCH WITH
PCPN ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT ERN NY AND WRN NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. IN THE W TO NW FLOW ALOFT A CLIPPER
LOW AND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW NIGHT WITH AN INCREASE OF CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE NEXT 24 HRS...AS THE SKIES WILL
CLEAR OVERNIGHT BRIEFLY AS A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN. AFTER SCT-BKN STRATO CUMULUS 3.5-5 KFT AGL AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS DECREASE TOWARDS 05Z-07Z. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE IN THE LATE MORNING. SOME SCT SNOW SHOWERS MAY REACH KGFL
BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH CIGS AROUND 4-5 KFT AGL. A VCSH GROUP WAS
USED FOR NOW.

THE WINDS WILL BE WEST-NORTHWEST 10-18 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20-32KTS
EARLY THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY DECREASING TO AROUND 7 KTS AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10
KTS IN THE LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY SCATTERED SHSN.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 34.0 SCATTERED SHSN.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WASHINGTON`S BIRTHDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SN.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SN.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA...SN...SLEET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
OTHER THAN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY...LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. HOWEVER...AS A
BITTER COLD AIR MASS ENCOMPASSES THE REGION...ICE COVER ON
RIVERS/LAKES WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND THICKNESS
THIS WEEKEND.

THEN...THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY PRECIPITATION EVENT TO
IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THERE
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TYPES OF
PRECIPITATION THAT MAY OCCUR...WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON
THE EXACT TRACK OF THIS POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ032-033-038-042-047-051-058-063-082.
     WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ039>041-043-048>050-052>054-059>061-
     064>066-083-084.
MA...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...WIND CHILL WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/11
NEAR TERM...KL
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/11


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