Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 292326
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
726 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR REGION WILL BE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER ONTARIO
AND QUEBEC AND AN EAST-WEST FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE NIGHT...PARTICULARLY
IN THE SOUTHERN AREAS. SATURDAY THE HIGH WILL DOMINATE WITH FAIR
COOL CONDITIONS IN MUCH OF THE REGION. SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
THE FRONT WILL SURGE TOWARD US AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TO
START THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 720 PM EDT...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO
TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN PA. THE COMBINATION OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENESIS...AND SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT HAS ALLOWED BANDS OF
LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL MOHAWK VALLEY AND
SCHOHARIE CO...WITH SOME SPRINKLES OCCASIONALLY BREAKING OFF THIS
BAND AND EXTENDING INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION.

OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WE EXPECT THE BEST FORCING WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO PASS ACROSS SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE REGION. SO...EXPECT THE CURRENT BAND OF LIGHT RAIN OVER THE
MOHAWK VALLEY/SCHOHARIE CO REGION TO SHIFT EAST/SOUTHEAST...WITH
SOME SHOWERS EXPECTED TO REACH PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...AND PERHAPS THE BERKSHIRES. ALSO...A STEADIER AREA OF
RAIN...SOME MODERATE IN INTENSITY...WAS DEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE
ACTUAL UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NYS AND THE
WESTERN CATSKILLS. THIS AREA SHOULD CONTINUE TRANSLATING EAST
SOUTHEAST...OVERSPREADING THE SE CATSKILLS/MID HUDSON VALLEY
REGION AND EVENTUALLY NW CT BETWEEN 8 AND 10 PM.

THE AREAS OF RAIN SHOULD THEN PERSIST UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE SINKING BACK SOUTHEAST AND DECREASING IN AREAL
COVERAGE. PLENTY OF CLOUDS SHOULD LINGER UNTIL DAYBREAK...EXCEPT
FOR SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE
REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP AS MUCH AS THEY COULD DUE TO PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AND SOME ADDED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...GENERALLY BOTTOMING
OUT FROM THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF
5-10 MPH SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN BACK TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST
AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH.

A VERY WEAK BUBBLE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY FOR
SATURDAY PROVIDING OUR ENTIRE REGION WITH SOME SUNSHINE...DRY
CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES VERY CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THE LAST DAY OF
APRIL. THAT TRANSLATES TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE
VALLEYS....55-60 HIGHER TERRAIN. A LIGHT NORTH WIND WILL PREVAIL
AROUND 5 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AT 500 HPA A COMPLEX PATTERN IS SETTING UP THAT WILL SET REGION
UP FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF COOL...WET UNSETTLED WEATHER. IT STARTS
WITH A FLAT RIDGE ON THE E SEABOARD AS A CUT OFF LIFTS EASTWARD
SHEARS OFF IN THE MID MISS VLY INTO THIS RIDGE. ANOTHER 500HPA
SHORT WV DROPS SE OUT OF ONT...AND OVERALL THE RIDGE FLATTENS.
WITH A MAJOR E-W THERMAL RIBBON IN THE OHIO VALLEY TO MID ATLC
COAST..THE COMBINATION OF INCRG CVA...ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A SFC
LOW WILL ORGANIZE. THE LOW WILL PROPAGATE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT IS ALSO SHIFTING N...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.

AS A RESULT OVERRUNNING CLOUDS AND -RN WILL OVERSPREAD THE RGN SAT
NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. BY 12UTC MONDAY ONLY A SHORT WV
REMAINS IN A FLAT WESTERLY FLOW BUT ITS ENOUGH TO GRADUALLY
DEEPEN A COASTAL LOW ON THE MID ATLC COAST. PCPN WONT DIMINISH OR
END TILL LATE MONDAY WHEN THE 500HPA SHORT WV FINALLY EXITS. ONLY
A WK SFC HIGH WILL FOLLOW AND CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH OR
MAY LINGER MON NT.

OTHER THAN SOME VARIATIONS IN QPF..AND A SLIGHTLY FURTHER N GEM
TRACK THE GEM/NAM/GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS PERIOD. IN
SHORT SVRL DAYS OF CLOUDY COOL...BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...
PERIODS OF NEEDED RAIN...LIKELY ON THE ORDER OF 1-2 INCHES TOTAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MDL SUITE IS IN AGREEMENT TUESDAY WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WVS
DIVING SE IN ONT...THE UPR MISS VLY AND A FLAT RIDGE ALONG THE
EAST COAST AND WEAK SFC HIGH OVER NE. CLOUDS WILL DIMINISH BUT
WHETHER IT CLEARS OR BCMS PC IS QUESTIONABLE. TEMPS WILL BE NR
NORMALS.

FROM TUES NT THRU THE END OF EFP THE MDLS SPREAD IN SVRL
DIRECTIONS. THE GFS/GEM DIG A STRONG SHORT WV INTO THE S
APPALACHIANS...WITH CYCLOGENESIS ON THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHICH DEEPENS...AND THE OTHER SHORT WVS PHASE WITH THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE MID ATLC. THE SFC LOW MOVES NE AND RESULTS IN A
CLASSIC INSIDE THE BENCHMARK NOR EASTER...SOAKING RAIN
DIMINISHING TO -SHRA THUR. THE OVER PLAY OF PHASING IN THESE MDLS
IS ALWAYS SUSPECT.

THE ECMWF KEEPS THE ENERGY STREAMS SEPARATE AND BRINGS A CDFNT
ACROSS THE RGN WED NT AS N BRANCH OF 500HPA TROF DIVES ACROSS THE
NE USA THU. MEANWHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM STAYS WELL SOUTH OF
FCA...AND COASTAL CYCLOGENESIS WILL BE WELL S OF RGN IN ECMWF
SCENARIO. WPC ALSO FOLLOWS ECMWF IN ITS GUID FOR WED. BY THU ALL
GUID HAS SOME KINDA OF CUT OFF OR TROF OVER THE NE ALTHOUGH THE
EVOLUTION WAS DIFFERENT...AND CLOUDS AND -SHRA A GOOD BET.

CONFIDENCE IN MORE WET CLOUDY DAMP WEATHER IS GOOD FOR THURS...AND
FOR A DRY DAY TUESDAY. WED IS THE DAY WITH A MODERATE DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY. OTHERWISE THE SHORT DESCRIPTION IS ALOT OF
CLOUDS...UNSETTLED WITH NR TO BLO NORMAL TEMPS. FCST WILL USE
SUPERBLEND.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING PLENTY OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT...AND ALSO SOME LIGHT RAIN TO THE KALB/KPOU AND KPSF
TERMINALS THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...ENDING AT 00Z/SUN. HOWEVER...SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS COULD ALLOW VSBYS/CIGS TO BRIEFLY DIP INTO THE MVFR RANGE
FOR A PERIOD THIS EVENING AT KPOU. ALSO...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR
ANY GROUND FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUD FORMATION AFTER ANY RAIN TAPERS
OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESP IF ANY BREAKS IN THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS
DEVELOP. DID NOT INCLUDE MENTION OF FOG AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL
NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS IN CASE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
INCREASES...ESP BETWEEN 08Z-12Z/SAT.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5-10 KT THIS EVENING...THEN
TREND INTO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT AT SIMILAR
SPEEDS. ON SATURDAY...WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE NORTHEAST TO
EAST AT 5-10 KT...ALTHOUGH MAY TREND INTO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
AT KPOU...AND WEST/SOUTHWEST AT KPSF BY AFTERNOON.

.OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SUNDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...RA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT:  SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER RELATED ISSUES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

SOME LIGHT RAIN IS LIKELY NEAR THE I-84 CORRIDOR TONIGHT WITH
AMOUNTS WELL UNDER A QUARTER OF AN INCH. OTHERWISE NOTHING MORE THAN
A FEW SPRINKLES TONIGHT FURTHER NORTH WITH A PARTIAL RECOVERY AND
LIGHT OR CALM WIND.

SATURDAY WILL BE DRY BUT RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED ONLY DROP INTO THE
30S IN THE VALLEYS/40S HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
MAINLY OUT OF THE NORTH UNDER 10 MPH.

IT LOOKS AS IF OCCASIONAL RAIN WILL MOVE IN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY AS TWO LOW PRESSURES PASS TO OUR SOUTH...AND A TROUGH
DIGS IN FROM ALOFT. MOST AREAS LOOK TO RECEIVE A QUARTER INCH OR
MORE OF RAINFALL. RH VALUES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ELEVATED (OVER 60
PERCENT) BOTH DAYS.

TUESDAY IS LIKELY TO BE DRY WITH LIGHT WIND AND SOME BREAKS OF
SUNSHINE. RH VALUES WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE 30 PERCENT.

THE THREAT OF SHOWERS WILL RETURN LATER IN THE WORKWEEK.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HYDROLOGIC PROBLEMS ARE NOT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WITH QPF AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH ANTICIPATED. THIS
RAINFALL WILL BE BENEFICIAL DUE TO DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FOR
THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED LATER IN
THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/SNYDER
NEAR TERM...KL/SNYDER
SHORT TERM...SNYDER
LONG TERM...SNYDER
AVIATION...HWJIV/KL
FIRE WEATHER...HWJIV
HYDROLOGY...SNYDER



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