Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 281143
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
743 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD TODAY PROVIDING OUR REGION WITH
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. FAIR WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING BACK TO SEASONAL
NORMALS. A DISTURBANCE WILL THEN PASS ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS BEFORE MID
SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH RETURNS FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER WESTERN NEW YORK THIS
MORNING. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SOME STRATUS TRAPPED
BENEATH A LOW LEVEL INVERSION SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO AND AT THE
EAST END OF LAKE ERIE INTO THE GENESEE VALLEY. IN ADDITION TO THE
STRATUS...PATCHY DENSE FOG IS BEING REPORTED IN THE SOUTHERN TIER
RIVER VALLEYS WHICH WILL LINGER TO MID MORNING.

AFTER A COOL START THIS MORNING...WARM ADVECTION UNDER LIGHT
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BOOST 850MB TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE 10C
TODAY. THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE MID 70S
ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA... THOUGH LOCAL LAKE BREEZES WILL
LIKELY KEEP TEMPS ALONG THE LAKE ONTARIO SHORELINE CONFINED TO
AROUND 70. THE COOLEST SPOT LOOKS TO BE THE HIGHEST TERRAIN EAST OF
LAKE ONTARIO WHICH MAY STRUGGLE TO BREAK OUT OF THE UPPER 60S.

TONIGHT THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND COAST. A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT SOME HIGH
CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERHEAD FROM A DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES. DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND THE LIMITED
CIRRUS STILL SUPPORTING ANOTHER ROUND OF SOUTHERN TIER RIVER VALLEY
FOG. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE A BIT MILDER WITH THE WARMING AIRMASS...
RANGING THROUGH THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEATHER FOR THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK
WILL BE DOMINATED BY TWO FEATURES...THE SUB-TROPICAL HIGH THAT WILL
BE ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY
ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S...AND A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE
THAT WILL BE DRIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BROAD ISENTROPIC UPLIFT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BETWEEN THE
HIGH AND THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL GENERATE WIDESPREAD
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER SATURDAY INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF
SUNDAY AND MAY SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE EDGES CLOSER TO THE
AREA...THOUGH WEAK FORCING AND A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT
COVERAGE. IT IS ALSO WORTH NOTING THAT EVEN THIS LIMITED ACTIVITY
MAY HOLD OFF THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD THE SHORTWAVE
HOLD OFF LONGER THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED IN THE BLEND BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND GFS OUTPUT AND HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND TOWARDS THE SLOWER
ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH SEEMS MORE REASONABLE GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE
SHORTWAVE WILL BE ENCOUNTERING AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING AFFECTING THE
EAST COAST.

GIVEN ABOVE DISCUSSION...HAVE LEFT IN LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK FOR MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION SHOULD THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFY.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL REFLECT THE BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WITH WARMER ADVECTING INTO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY
THE PRESENCE OF THE DECAYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SHOULD KEEP
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S THROUGH THE PERIOD. INCREASING MOISTURE
RETURN ACROSS THE REGION WILL PUSH DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 60S AND
YIELD WARMER AND MUGGIER NIGHTS THAN WE HAVE EXPERIENCED OF LATE
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...WARMEST NEAR THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN ITS HOLD EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
THROUGH THE COMING WEEK PROMOTING A LARGELY DRY AND INCREASINGLY
WARM PERIOD FOR WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID-80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES TODAY AND TONIGHT EXCEPT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG HAS DEVELOPED.
THIS INCLUDES KJHW WHERE VLIFR VIS/CIGS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT
14Z.

SOME AREAS OF VFR STRATUS SHOULD MIX OUT THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD. TONIGHT...SOME THIN HIGH CIRRUS WILL BEGIN
OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST AREA WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF DENSE RIVER
VALLEY FOG EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WITH VLIFR FOR KJHW.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR.
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/ ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR. MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE RULE FROM TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMITH
NEAR TERM...SMITH
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...SMITH
MARINE...SMITH


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