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000
FXUS63 KILX 060819
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
219 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today)
ISSUED AT 218 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

Despite a very chilly start to the day (with much of forecast area
near or below zero), temperatures are expected to warm nicely today
across central and southeast Illinois. A ridge of high pressure will
pull away from the area today. The surface pressure gradient will
become much stronger as the ridge departs, allowing gusty southerly
winds to develop. These southerly winds will begin to transport much
warmer temperatures into the area, a welcome trend that will persist
for at least the next several days. Weak upper level disturbances
will produce some mid-high level cloudiness as they move through the
region today, but the local air mass is too dry to support any
precipitation with these disturbances locally.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Tonight through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 218 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

Not much change in this part of the forecast, with the warming trend
the dominant theme. Temperatures may be held down initially across
the southwest/southeast parts of the forecast area where the snow
cover is a bit deeper, but 40s should still be widespread much of
the weekend, and 50s follow for Tuesday-Thursday. Longer range
models are in general agreement with the upper pattern into the
middle of next week, with a broad SW-NE trough across the Plains
into the Great Lakes. Any fast-moving waves would be more along the
northern tier of states, and would largely bypass us.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR conditions with light and variable winds across central IL
late this evening. Surface high pressure crossing the area is
responsible for the light winds and clear skies. Shortly after
06Z, increasing surface pressure gradients associated with a weak
approaching system will result in increasing southerly winds in
western IL, spreading eastward through the state overnight. Winds
reaching 14-18 kts with gusts 20-25 kts in the late
morning/afternoon. Cloud cover at 10-15 kft is expected in warm
advection aloft with the system crossing the state from around
12Z-22Z. After 00Z Saturday...gusts and mid-cloud cover
decreasing, but SSW winds 8-12 kts continuing.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bak
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Onton