354
FXUS63 KILX 170741
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
241 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Daily storm chances remain into the extended. The next best
  chance for severe weather comes Saturday.

- Heat and humidity will build next week...with early projections
  suggesting heat index values climbing well above 100 degrees by
  next Tuesday through much of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

The best chance for showers and/or thunderstorms today is south of
the I-72 corridor. The front will be draped over southeastern IL
today. There is a marginal risk for damaging winds in the area of
the front, but overall the storms should remain sub severe today.

With the front stalling out over southeastern IL, daily chances for
showers and thunderstorms exist into the weekend. Saturday the front
will shift northward and a couple shortwave pulses are expected
to move over the forecast area, which will bring the next best
chance for wider coverage of convection and potentially severe
weather. The NAMNest and FV3 models are showing a bowing complex
moving into the area by the end of their runs from Iowa, so we
will be monitoring the development and trends of that complex as
we move forward. SPC has introduced a marginal risk for severe
weather for Saturday (day 3). Timing of these waves is uncertain.
Precipitation amounts over the weekend look to be in the 1-2 inch
range.

Today will be a good break from the muggy, warmth of the summer, but
it won`t last long. Temperatures warm back into the upper 80s to low
90s by the weekend and they will continue to rise into the new week.
Productive southerly flow will increase the WAA and moisture
transport will usher in oppressive and sweltering temperatures. By
Tuesday, daytime highs will get into the mid 90s with heat indices
around 105-115 degrees. That looks to last most of the week. A heat
advisory, maybe even an extreme heat headline, may be needed next
week for the oppressive heat.


Copple

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Thursday Night)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

A cold front is draped across central Illinois late this evening
with light southwest winds veering to northwest in its wake.
Confidence in precip with frontal passage continues to diminish,
and while not zero especially at SPI/DEC, the chances are better
for precip to remain south of the terminals overnight. Meanwhile,
MVFR/IFR ceilings currently over much of the Upper Midwest are
expected to spread southeast across central Illinois Thursday
morning. Ceilings are expected to lift/scatter to VFR around
midday, but may return later in the evening as winds continue to
veer to the northeast under the influence of high pressure
building across the Upper Midwest.

Deubelbeiss

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$