Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 250238
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
938 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AN ELONGATED AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS ABOUT TO
MERGE WITH ANOTHER WEAKER LINE OF SHOWERS IN THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS COMPLEX AREA REMAINS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH IS
CURRENTLY ANALYZED FROM NEAR CROSS CITY (IN THE BIG BEND AREA) TO THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL. SMALLER AND MORE SEPARATED SHOWERS WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND ACROSS MOST PORTIONS OF THE SERVICE AREA AT THIS
HOUR. WINDS ARE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY
FRESH. TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 70S STILL.

THE LATE EVENING LOCAL SOUNDING SHOWS A DEEP SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
EXTENDING TO WELL ABOVE 50000 FEET ABOVE A SHALLOW VEERED NEAR-
SURFACE PROFILE. WE ARE QUITE MOIST...NEARLY 1.9 INCHES OF
PRECIPITABLE WATERS. THE STRONG INHIBITING LAYER THAT WAS EVIDENT
JUST ABOVE 7000 FEET 12 HOURS AGO HAS BEEN COMPLETELY
ELIMINATED...AND THE AIRMASS IS OF COURSE UNSTABLE. THERE IS A HIGH
LIKELIHOOD OF PERIODIC SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR THE ISLAND CHAIN. THE AFTERNOON ZONE ISSUANCE
HAS THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS COVERED WELL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. UNLESS THINGS CHANGE RADICALLY...WHICH IS DOUBTFUL...THERE IS
NO REASON TO CHANGE THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE ZONE FORECAST. AND
NO UPDATE IS PLANNED FOR LATE THIS EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE WAS ONLY A MINOR GRIDDED ADJUSTMENT NECESSARY THIS
EVENING...BUT THIS WAS TO BRING THE EXPECTED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WITH
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST ANALYSIS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WHICH ITSELF IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE KEYS AND ADJACENT
WATERS AT OR SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNRISE ON CHRISTMAS DAY. AWAY FROM STRONGER
CONVECTION...THE OVERALL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CAUTIONARY
HEADLINES...EXCEPT LATE TONIGHT IN THE OFFSHORE GULF WATERS WHERE
WINDS SHOULD TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND ACCELERATE PRIOR TO ANYWHERE
ELSE. LIKE THE ZONES...THIS IS ADVERTISED WELL FROM THE AFTERNOON
ISSUANCE...AND LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE LATE
EVENING MARINE UPDATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 25/18Z...A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...IS HEADING TOWARD THE KEYS
AREA. WINDS WILL CLOCK AROUND THE COMPASS FROM SOUTH AT THIS
HOUR...TO NORTH BY 14Z. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PULSE OVER THE AREA
AND ANTICIPATE A PRE FRONTAL LINE TO ARRIVE AROUND 04Z AND IS THE
REASON FOR SHOWERS IN THE TAF. THE FRONT FINALLY MOVES THROUGH THE
TERMINALS AFTER 14Z...AND WINDS WILL LIKELY PROVIDE A MODERATE
CROSSWIND IMPACT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1989...THE DAILY RECORD
LOW TEMPERATURE OF 44 DEGREES WAS RECORDED AT KEY WEST. THIS ALSO
TIED THE ALL TIME COLDEST TEMPERATURE RECORDED FOR THE MONTH OF
DECEMBER SET ON DECEMBER 2ND 1876...DECEMBER 27TH 1985...AND
DECEMBER 29TH 1894. TEMPERATURE RECORDS IN KEY WEST DATE BACK TO
1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........04
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BWC
DATA COLLECTION.......FLING

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