Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 240233
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1033 PM EDT Mon Oct 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...
An upper level ridge centered over the western Caribbean reaches
north-northeast into the extreme western North Atlantic.
Meanwhile, water vapor imagery highlights a broad mid-upper level
low complex digging into the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys.
Between the two, a col-region in the lower troposphere is nearly
stationary, situated to the northwest of the Florida Keys in the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

Mosaic radar imagery from around Florida highlights the
convection east of South Florida, west of Southwest Florida, and
north of Cuba. However, the low level flow is anticyclonic enough
across the Florida Straits and the island chain to starve the KBYX
radar of any echoes. Additionally, although PW has increased this
evening in the KKEY RAOB, low level moisture has decreased and
mixed layer buoyancy has weakened. We do feel this will change
later tonight as convergence along the Cuban outflow front
flourishes along the island chain. We retain the 50 percent rain
chances given the current radar analysis, noting that MOS guidance
is more bullish. We made some minor tweaks to the digital and
derived wind forecasts behind the first frontal passage. No other
changes needed or planned.

&&

.MARINE...
No current watches, warnings, or advisories. A cold front will
push through the Florida Keys coastal waters Tuesday night and
Wednesday morning. Prepare for winds shifting quickly to the north
behind the front. Northerly winds will peak at 20 to 25 knots for
most areas Wednesday through Thursday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR and gentle southeast breezes will prevail overnight at the EYW
and MTH terminals. Although local radars indicate very little
activity near the island chain, evening convection east of South
Florida, west of Southwest Florida, and north of Cuba indicates
an atmosphere ripe for showers and storms. Local modeling
indicates convergence along the northward moving Cuban outflows
will flourish near the island chain later tonight. Also, an
approaching frontal system will increase confluence near the
island chain tomorrow afternoon. Both scenarios are advertised in
the TAFs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  78  85  74  78 / 50 60 60 40
Marathon  78  85  74  78 / 50 60 60 40

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...CLR
Aviation/Nowcasts....CLR
Data Collection......DR

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