Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 060809
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
409 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...
A BOUNDARY FROM A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION OVER THE MAINLAND LATE
YESTERDAY IS ELONGATED FROM NEAR BISCAYNE BAY TO THE MARQUESAS KEYS
AT THIS HOUR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS
STRETCH ARE MORE CONCENTRATED NEAR FLORIDA BAY AND THE NEARSHORE
ATLANTIC WATERS. THEY HAVE WEAKENED JUST NORTH OF THE LOWER KEYS.
EARLY MORNING IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ELSEWHERE IN THE KEYS SERVICE AREA. IT REMAINS UNSURPRISINGLY WARM
AND HUMID NEARBY. MODERATE WINDS ARE PITCHED TO THE NORTHEAST/EAST
BEHIND THE DECELERATING BOUNDARY ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE
ISLAND CHAIN...AND EAST/SOUTHEAST ELSEWHERE.

A RIDGE WILL REPLACE A NARROW TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A PAIR OF
RETROGRADING CYCLONIC GYRES...ONE IN THE GULF AND THE OTHER EAST OF
THE BAHAMAS. CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...RESIDENT HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
IN THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC AND STRETCHED ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA WILL BE IN NO HURRY TO MOVE. THE KEYS AND SURROUNDING
WATERS WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
FEATURE...MAINTAINING A RELATIVELY DEEP EASTERLY FLOW. PER KBYX
RADAR...THERE IS AT LEAST A THREAT OF MEASURABLE RAIN.
BUT...RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT AND INTO THE MID LEVELS WILL BE THE
RULE FOR THE BULK OF THIS FORECAST. A MINIMAL MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS THE BEST ADVERTISEMENT...SO LITTLE
CHANGE WAS MADE ANY OF OUR GRIDDED WEATHER ELEMENTS. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY FRESH BREEZES WILL SETTLE INTO AN
EAST/SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION ACROSS ALL WATERS SURROUNDING THE
FLORIDA KEYS EARLY THIS MORNING AS AN ELONGATED BOUNDARY WASHES OUT.
THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS WILL BE A HIGHER THREAT FOR OFFSHORE ATLANTIC
WATERS...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE LOWER KEYS...OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP ANY EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES OUT OF THE
FORECAST ON THIS CYCLE. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE LARGER SCALE MODELS
SHOWED NO SURPRISES FOR THE LOCAL WATERS...AND THERE IS NO NEED TO
MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR ANY PERIOD ON THE UPCOMING MARINE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS TODAY. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS OF 8 KNOTS OR LESS WILL
INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING TO EAST TO EAST-SOUTHEAST TO AROUND 10
KNOTS AND GUSTS TO AROUND 18 KNOTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...ON THIS DATE IN KEY WEST WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1881...THE
DAILY RECORD MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 95F WAS RECORDED. THEN 115 YEARS
LATER IN 1996...THE DAILY RECORD WARM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 84F WAS
RECORDED. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  93  83  92  83 / 10 10 10 10
MARATHON  93  83  93  83 / 10 10 10 10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........04
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KN
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

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