Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 240802

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
402 AM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Currently - A high pressure system centered over the southeastern
United States is producing moderate to fresh northeast breezes across
the Florida Keys and surrounding waters. Slow moderation in surface
conditions is taking place with the increasingly maritime trajectory,
and temperatures are currently in the mid 70s with dew points in the
lower 60s. Last evenings sounding indicated a strong subsidence
inversion based around 850 mb. This is also contributing to partly to
mostly cloudy skies due to stratocumulus trapped under the cap.
However, conditions are still too stable for shower formation.

Forecast - The high pressure system will be reinforced by another
larger high diving southeastwards out of Canada into the eastern
United States. As a result, winds will trend upwards over the next
couple of days, becoming windy before mid week. Surface temps and
moisture will trend upwards through this period as winds clock more
east northeast and strengthen. Meanwhile, moisture associated with
an old front is expected to stall across South Florida and the Keys
by mid week. This along with potential support aloft via an
amplifying mid latitude trough eliminating the subsidence inversion
justifies holding at least mid chance pops through the mid week time
range. Through the back half of the week, the high complex over the
eastern United States will gradually shift eastwards into the
Atlantic and winds will only slowly trend downwards. Expect
temperatures to range near normal with dew point temperatures near


High pressure centered over the southeastern United States will be
reinforced over the next couple of days by a larger high spreading
southeastwards into the eastern United States. As a result, moderate
to fresh breezes today into tonight will strengthen Tuesday into
Wednesday, becoming fresh to strong. Small craft advisory in effect
for the Florida Straits will likely be required on all Keys Waters by
Tuesday, then persisting through at least Friday.


A stratocumulus deck around 4-5 kft is building in from the
northeast, with conditions across the FL Keys and South FL varying
between SCT to BKN at times. VFR should persist at KEYW and KMTH
through the next 24 hours. Expect gentle breezes overnight out of
the northeast, with moderate to fresh gusts returning during
daylight hours.


In 1937, the daily record cold high temperature of 73F
was last recorded.


Key West  82  73  82  75 / -  10 10 20
Marathon  82  73  83  75 / -  10 10 20


GM...Small Craft Advisory for Florida Straits




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