Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 171959
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
259 PM EST Wed Jan 17 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Currently - The local pressure gradient has opened up further this
afternoon, resulting in light to gentle northwest to north winds
across the area. Sunlight remains muted due to sheets of cirrus
streaming northeastward. Temperatures have wandered in the upper
60s to near 70 with dew point temperatures in the mid to upper
50s. Meanwhile, a cold front continues to race southeastwards
through the Gulf of Mexico towards the Florida Keys.

Forecast - Winds are expected to pick up a bit late this afternoon
due to a Florida west coast surge, but the real increase will take
place this evening as the cold front blasts through the Keys. This
front is expected to be dry due to a lack of moisture and
relatively stable environment. Expect overnight lows to bottom out
broadly in the lower 50s. Portions of Key Largo will likely dip
into the upper 40s.

Over the following few days, the high pressure system responsible
for the strong northerlies will spread eastward along the southern
states into the extreme southeastern United States. Winds will
clock northeast than east northeast and relax considerably by
early Friday. The more modified maritime trajectory will result in
warming and moistening, and temperatures will return to near
normal late this weekend. Rain chances will creep up into slight
chance this weekend due to the increased moisture and developing
isentropic lift through the lower levels.

Near to slightly above normal temperatures are on tap for next
week as the previously mentioned high moves out into the Atlantic
and gentle to moderate winds turn more easterly.

&&

.MARINE...
Surface winds will gradually increase late this afternoon out of
the northwest to north due to a west Florida wind surge. Winds
will then surge substantially this evening out of the north as a
dry cold front blows through Keys waters. A small craft advisory
will be in effect for all Keys waters. Winds will then relax
while gradually clock northeast then east northeast  Thursday
through early Friday as a high pressure in the southern United
States shifts in the extreme southeastern United States.
Thereafter, gentle to moderate east breezes will prevail, with the
highest winds over the Florida Straits.

&&

.AVIATION...
A cold front will push through the Florida Keys this evening.
Current timing is around 00Z. A spell of MVFR ceilings will be
possible with this front. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail
at the island terminals. Surface winds, starting out light out of
the northwest to north will surge to 15 to 20 knots and gusty with
the passage of the cold front. This will result in crosswinds at
Keys runways.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...11
Aviation/Nowcasts....11
Data Collection......DR

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