Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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000
FXUS63 KSGF 291712
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1212 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue today
and tonight as a deep upper level low lifts northeast from the
southern Rockies and interacts with a stalled front across the
region. Precipitable water values in excess of 1.50 and
tremendous moisture influx combined with strong synoptic scale
lift will lead to torrential rainfall. Deep convection will result
in intense rainfall rates.

Activity will be focused north of a surface front and along the
925 MB frontal boundary which will lay across southern Missouri
for much of the event. This front will become more southwest to
northeast oriented with time as the upper flow amplifies ahead of
the approaching storm system.

The end result will be a significant flood event particularly
across far southern Missouri. Total storm rain amounts will
generally range from 3 to 6 inches with localized amounts up to 8
inches. The highest amounts will generally fall along and south of
Interstate 44 with lower amounts farther north across central
Missouri.

Ample instability will be in place or develop across far southern
Missouri as the warm front lifts north a bit. This along with
favorable shear environment will support strong to severe
convection including supercells. Large hail will be the primary
risk early today but the risk for damaging winds and perhaps a few
tornadoes will develop today across south central Missouri. The
severe risk will ultimately depend on the northward extent of the
warm front.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

The upper low will make its way into the region Sunday allowing
rain to taper off but not entirely end. Cool temperatures can also
be expected. Improving weather will return Monday as the upper low
lifts off to the northeast.

Next system will arrive Tuesday night and Wednesday bringing
another round of rainfall. Overall a cooler pattern is setting up
for much of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

Several waves of strong thunderstorms with heavy rain will
continue to push across the area through the forecast period.
North of the warm front (jln/sgf) will likely remain in mvfr/ifr
through much of the forecast period. BBG could break out a bit in
between rounds of thunderstorms, but will likely be in mostly
MVFR/IFR conditions. Final round of heavier convection should push
through the TAF sites late in the overnight period into Sunday
morning.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday evening for MOZ055>058-066>071-
     077>083-088>098-101>106.

KS...Flash Flood Watch through Sunday evening for KSZ073-097-101.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Foster
LONG TERM...Foster
AVIATION...Lindenberg


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