Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 221104

504 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(Today into Tuesday)
Issued at 400 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

An upper level trough is currently pushing east across the central
Plains early this morning. The upper level trough will then close
off later today across the central Plains and push into Iowa by
Tuesday morning. Lift will overspread the area and result in rain
showers developing at times from early this morning through into
early this evening. The best coverage in this activity will
be farther to the north closer to the upper level low generally
north of I-44, but still could be off and on in nature through the

As the low begins to close off this afternoon drier air in
the mid levels will begin to spread around the south side of the
low into the area. As this occurs the rain will come to an end
from west to east this afternoon into early this evening as the
drier air spreads in. Overnight into Tuesday, this mid level dry
area should remain in place and limit rain from occurring.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 400 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

The upper level low will remain across Iowa/Minnesota on Tuesday. An
upper level wave, which will be in phase with the low, will dig
into Texas on Tuesday then lift to the northeast Tuesday night
into Wednesday.

As the trough digs into Texas, mid level moisture will spread
back into the area. Surface low pressure will begin to develop
across the lower Mississippi Valley region and lift into the Ohio
Valley Tuesday night and Wednesday as the upper level trough
across lifts to the northeast. Some models show the wave closing
off across the region as it starts to lift, which seems reasonable
looking at the long wave charts.

As this system lifts to the north precipitation will develop on
the back side of the low. Colder air will also spread into the
area on the back side of the low. The precipitation may start off
as rain but is then expected to mix with and change over to light
snow as the colder air moves in from west to east Tuesday night
into Wednesday morning. Precipitation will then taper off by the
afternoon Wednesday. Temperatures will be around the freezing
mark, likely right at or slightly above freezing, while the snow
is falling. The track of the system should keep the heaviest
precipitation with this system to the east and northeast of the
area. Therefore, this snow will be on the light side, but there
could be some very light accumulations across the area Tuesday
night into Wednesday morning. With temperatures remaining above
freezing any snow that falls will melt fairly quickly and any
accumulations should mainly be on elevated and grassy surfaces.
Could be a few slushy spots as the snow falls but overall impacts
from this snow are expected to be low at this time. Models have
been differing slightly on the exact track of this system from run
to run, so there is still some uncertainty on the exact track. A
slight shift in the track to the east would decrease the already
low amounts, pushing them off to the east.

An upper level ridge will then spread over the region on Thursday,
and will bring an increase in southerly winds which will usher warmer
temperatures into the area. The sun should also finally return to
the area on Thursday helping highs top out in the upper 40s to
middle 50s.

Another system will track through the region late this week into
the weekend and will usher cooler conditions back into the
region. The system could also bring some chances for precipitation
to the area, but there are questions are how much moisture can
return after the mid week system. Have trended with the drier GFS
for this package, but uncertainty remains with the details of this


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 501 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

Several waves of upper level energy continue to swing through the
area in advance of the mean upper level trough. An area of low
pressure was located just to the west of the area and will push
into the region today. Scattered rain showers will affect the
region today along with low stratus in the IFR/MVFR category and
periods of drizzle. Drier air will begin to work in behind this
system this evening and should see the clouds begin to dissipate.




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