Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 220722
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
222 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 222 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

Line of strong/severe convection continues to march east across
the CWA with individual elements tracking northeast along the
line. Had an uptick in winds between 1 AM and 130 AM within the
line and had a couple of small mesovorts along a northwest to
southeast oriented line segment. Will need to continue monitoring
these northeast surges over the next couple/few hours. Convection
is starting to move into a more stable atmosphere across the
eastern Ozarks with best instability remaining further south into
Arkansas. Would expect our best severe chances will be with
northeast surges coming out of Arkansas through 4-5 AM. Showers
with more scattered lightning strikes remain further west across
the CWA behind the initial line and this area will continue to
track east overnight into Sunday morning.

Main forecast focus will be with remaining convection for the rest
of tonight into Sunday morning and then with temperatures for the
upcoming work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

For the rest of the overnight into today, strongest convection in
the line of storms should push out of the CWA by 12-13z, but may
still have a wind risk, especially with line segments surging to
the northeast. Lingering showers/storms will persist through the
morning hours with decreasing chances for precipitation from west
to east, eventually ending by late afternoon across the far
southeast cwa as the upper level low tracks east across the area.
Much drier air will move into the area behind the upper trough and
we should see clearing from west to east tonight. Temperatures
will be in the 60s today and dip down into the 40s tonight with a
few upper 30s not out of the question.


.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

A strong upper level jet will begin to dive soutehast out of
Canada into the plains on Monday and will carve out another
trough across the central U.S. A cold front will push through the
area during the day on Monday, but with the drier air moving into
the region tonight, precipitation is not expected. Windy
conditions are expected behind the front as a cold air mass surges
southeast. The windiest conditions are expected on Tuesday where
winds of 30 mph will be possible. Tuesdays highs will struggle to
get out of the 50s with Tuesday nights lows in the 30s. At this
point, it looks like most temperatures will remain above freezing
and winds will be stirring enough that a frost is not expected.

The main trough will shift east of the area on Wednesday and we
should see temperatures rebound again for Wednesday and Thursday.
Another strong push of Canadian air will arrive with a front on
Friday which will bring our next chance of rain. Can`t rule out a
few snowflakes mixing in with the rain on the tail end of the
precipitation Friday night, but no accumulations are expected.



&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

Pilots can expect deteriorating flight conditions tonight as a
cold front and associated storms move across the region.
Showers and thunderstorms will overspread the area from the west
while ceilings lower the frontal passage later tonight. Gusty
southerly winds will shift to the northwest as the front passes
with low level wind shear persisting ahead of the front. Improving
flight conditions will return during the day Sunday.


&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Lindenberg
SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Foster



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