Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 300427

1127 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Virga/sprinkles/very light showers were occurring with the an
approaching shortwave extending from the western Great Lakes
south into KS. Expect the associated sfc trough to pass through
the area early tonight. The boundary will encounter better
moisture after it moves through the cwfa with increased
convection, but this will take place south of our area tonight.

Sfc high pressure will move in behind the front, becoming centered
over the area by daybreak Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Warm and dry weather is expected Monday as the sfc high moves e-se
of the area and a modest south return flow develops. Another sfc
trough will wash out over the area Tuesday as upper level ridging
moves into the Plains with continued warm temperatures.

A more active pattern looks to evolve during the mid/late week
period. A strong shortwave is expected to move into the western
CONUS Wednesday pushing a sfc front out into the Plains. Not bad
agreement between global models with the GFS and GEM a bit faster
with the front versus the ECMWF as it moves into the area late
Wednesday night and Thursday. Large scale triggers for strong
convection are present like typical early Spring deep layer shear,
steep mid level lapse rate with an eml/cap, but diurnal timing of
the front, and extent of upstream convection on Wednesday and
potential downstream interference with instability due to
weakening convective "debris" is in some question this far out.
SPC has a 15% outlook for Thu with the fropa and this seems like a
good conservative approach for now until details become better

Cooler air will move into the region Fri with decreasing showers
as sfc high pressure builds in behind the front. Dry weather with
a warming trend is then expected by the end of log term period.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

Mid level clouds pushed southeast of the area this evening as the
upper level trough axis has shifted into the region. Winds have
generally become light and should remain so overnight. A southeast
to south wind will develop Monday morning as surface ridge shifts
to our southeast and will continue through the day with VFR SKC
conditions expected.




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