Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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FXUS63 KSGF 010747

247 AM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 0210 AM CDT TUE SEP 01 2015

A stagnant weather pattern will produce generally similar weather
compared to what we saw Monday. An upper level shear axis may
serve as a focus for isolated afternoon/early evening
showers/thunderstorms, but the vast majority of the area will be
rainfree. Will watch for some fog development early this morning
in some favored low lying terrain and lakes, but in general not
expecting much widespread or long lasting travel impacts.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 0210 AM CDT TUE SEP 01 2015

A strong shortwave will move southeast into the Pacific
Northwest/British Columbia over the next couple of days with an
increasingly amplified upper level pattern over western NOAM. A
downstream ridge will build over the eastern Plains and Midwest
keeping our weather very warm, humid, but generally rainfree
except for maybe a rogue afternoon/evening shower/thunderstorm.
Measurable rain chances in any given 12hr period are generally 10
percent or less Wed through Sunday.

There is general medium range guidance agreement in gradually
flattening the upper ridge as shortwaves in the upper level
westerlies shift farther south and east. The tail end of a sfc
front is expected to finally move into the Cornbelt by early next
week. Model trends have backed down a bit on the chances of rain
by Monday, slowing the progged front down a bit. Will keep some
reduced pops in the fcst for Mon/day 7.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

VFR conditions are expected to persist through Tuesday evening.
Some patchy light fog will be possible across portions of southern
Missouri tonight, but the prospects appear to be too low to
include in the TAFs. Winds will remain out of the south to
southeast below 12 knots.




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