Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 251231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Dec 25 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity continued at low levels.  The largest flare of the period
was a C4 at 25/0523 from Region 2242 (S17, L=241) from just behind the
SW limb.  Continued decay was observed in Region 2241 (S08W83,
Hsx/alpha).  Slight to moderate growth was observed in newly numbered
Region 2249 (S12W27, Dao/beta).  The rest of the spotted regions were
either stable or in decay.  No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections
(CMEs) were observed.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class
(R1/R2-Minor/Moderate) flares and a slight chance for an X-class
(R3-Strong) flare on day one (25 Dec). Conditions are expected to be low
with a chance for M-class flares on days two and three (26-27 Dec) as
Regions 2241 and 2242 complete their transit beyond the East limb.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal levels.  The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels for the forecast period (25-26 Dec) with a slight chance
to reach high levels on day three (27 Dec). The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at background
levels on all three days (25-27 Dec) of the forecast period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters continued to recover from CME activity through the
period.  Solar wind speeds ranged from a high of 594 km/s at 24/1633 UTC
to a low of 420 km/s at 25/0215 UTC.  Total field ranged from 3 nT to 7
nT while the Bz component was variable between +/-6 nT.  Phi angle was
predominantly negative (towards) with brief variations into a positive
(away) sector early in the period.

.Forecast...
Solar wind speeds are expected to remain enhanced through day one (25
Dec) as CME effects persist. A return to nominal solar wind conditions
is expected by day two (26 Dec) before becoming slightly disturbed on
day three (27 Dec) with the onset of a negative polarity coronal hole
high speed stream (CH HSS).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels for
the rest of the UTC day on day one (25 Dec). Conditions should briefly
return to quiet levels on day two (26 Dec) before a negative polarity CH
HSS moves into a geoeffective position, bringing quiet to unsettled
levels on day three (27 Dec).


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