Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 230031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Sep 23 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Very little flare activity occurred on
the visible disk during the period, with background levels near the B5
level. A single C-level enhancement occurred at 22/1951 UTC from Region
2172 (S11E50, Ekc/beta) which remains the most ominous group on the
solar disk, though it has been largely dormant. Two well defined CMEs
were observed in Lasco C2 imagery at 21/0624 UTC and 21/0848 UTC. These
CMEs were also observed in Lasco C3 and Stereo Behind imagery, near the
same times. Analysis indicated both were from regions on the far side of
the Sun.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class flares
(R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) for the next three days (23-25 Sep). Region 2172
is the most likely source for significant flare production.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was slightly
enhanced, seeing a peak value of 2 pfu - well below the S1 (Minor)
threshold. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
was at normal levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at or near background levels (Below S1-Minor) for the next three
days (23-25 Sep). The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over the next three
days (23-25 Sep).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters indicated steady conditions. Solar wind speeds
were consistent between 430 and 460 km/s. Bt was steady near 6 nT. The
maximum negative value for Bz was -5 nT. The Phi angle indicated a solar
sector boundary crossing (SSBC) at 22/0200 UTC from a positive (away)
orientation to a negative (toward) orientation. No notable signatures
were observed.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to display coronal hole high speed
stream (CH HSS) effects starting on day one (23 Sep) and are expected to
remain enhanced through days two and three (24-25 Sep).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled, with a
chance for active periods (Below G1-Minor)for the next three day (23-25
Sep) due to potential activity associated with a positive polarity CH
HSS.



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