Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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044
FXXX12 KWNP 050031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2016 Dec 05 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached low levels this period due to C-class flare
activity.  Region 2615 (S07W20, Dai/beta) produced three C1 flares this
period (at 04/0251, 0723, and 1755 UTC) and exhibited minor growth in
its trailer and intermediate spot areas.  Region 2612 (N09W75, Cao/beta)
was stable throughout the period while former Regions 2614 (N06W49) and
2616 (N18W47) decayed to plage.  No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in
available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
There is a chance for C-class flares and a slight chance for M-class
flare activity over the next three days (05-07 Dec).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels this period
with a peak flux of 6,340 pfu observed at 04/1605 UTC.  The greater than
10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on
days one and two (05-06 Dec) with normal to moderate levels likely on
day three (07 Dec) due to elevated geomagnetic field activity.  The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background
levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters became slightly enhanced beginning at around
04/1300 UTC, likely due to a solar sector boundary crossing.  Bt and Bz
were at background levels until around 04/1400 UTC when Bt increased to
4 nT and Bz reached -4 nT following a phi angle transition (negative to
positive) at 1100 UTC.  Solar wind density values also became enhanced
following the sector change, but solar wind speeds remained steady
between 270-300 km/s throughout the period.

.Forecast...
The near-Earth solar wind environment is expected to be slightly
enhanced on day one (05 Dec) due to the weak influence of a positive
polarity CH HSS.  Background solar wind conditions are expected on day
two (06 Dec) followed by another solar wind enhancement beginning on day
three (07 Dec) due to the anticipated onset of a recurrent negative
polarity CH HSS.  STEREO-A data suggests that wind speeds in excess of
700 km/s are possible during the onset of this feature.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels throughout the period.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled on day one
(05 Dec) due to the influence of a positive polarity CH HSS.  Quiet
conditions are expected on day two (06 Dec) followed by likely quiet to
active conditions on day three (07 Dec) due to the onset of a negative
polarity CH HSS.



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