Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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272
FXXX12 KWNP 221231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 May 22 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at very low levels. Two new regions emerged during
the period, Region 2352 (N05E16, Dro/beta) and Region 2353 (N08E02,
Cao/beta). All other regions were either stable or in decay.

A nearly 10 degree long, linear filament located at approximately N16E02
became active and slowly dissipated between 22/0300-0600 UTC. Analysis
of SDO/AIA imagery indicated the filament was likely reabsorbed.

At about 21/2204 UTC an eruptive event was noted from behind the NE limb
in SDO/AIA 304 imagery. Subsequent SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery
revealed a partial halo coronal mass ejection (CME) first seen at
21/2224 UTC associated with this activity. Analysis of all available
imagery did not reveal any front side signatures related to this event
and it is likely this was a backside event and not Earth-directed.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class
activity over the next three days (22-24 May).


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at ambient background
levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to
moderate levels for the forecast period (22-24 May). The greater than 10
MeV proton flux is expected to remain below S1 (Minor) threshold for the
forecast period (22-24 May).


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters at the ACE satellite indicated a return to near
background conditions as the positive polarity CH HSS rotated away from
a geo-effective connection. Solar wind speed was generally steady during
the period as it ranged from about 360-470 km/s. Total magnetic field
strength remained undisturbed between 4-6 nT. The Bz component
fluctuated between positive and negative, with maximum deflections to -3
nT. The phi angle remained in a positive (away) orientation.


.Forecast...
Solar wind velocity is expected to be at background speeds for days one
through three (22-24 May) as the CH HSS rotated away from a
geo-effective position allowing a return to ambient conditions.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain quiet through the forecast
period (22-24 May) as CH HSS effects have ceased allowing for the return
to an ambient conditions.



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