Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 261230
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Jul 26 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was low.  The largest flares of the period were a C1
flare from newly numbered Region 2125 (S12E78, Bxo/beta) and a C1 flare
from Region 2123 (S16E20, Dro/beta).  New region 2124 (S21E71) was also
numbered as it rotated onto the visible disk.

Region 2122 (S13E02) decayed to plage while Regions 2121 (N06E24,
Csi/beta-gamma) and 2123 remained relatively stable.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for C-class
flare activity (Below R1-Minor) for days one and two (26-27 Jul).  For
day three (28 Jul), activity is likely to be at low levels with a slight
chance for a M-class flare (NOAA Scale R1-minor) as old regions 2108
(S07, L=257) and 2109 (S08, L=240) return to the visible disk.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous
orbit was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux at
geosynchronous orbit is expected to remain at background levels (Below
S1-Minor) for the next three days (26-28 Jul).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Phi remained mostly positive during the period.  There was a slight
increase in solar wind speed and temperature around 26/0600 UTC, after
which speed was near 400 km/s.  Bt increased during this time to peak
near 9 nT while Bz dipped to -7 nT.

.Forecast...
Nominal solar wind conditions are expected to last through early on day
three (28 Jul).  Then, a negative polarity coronal hole high speed
(400-500 km/s) solar wind stream is expected become geoeffective.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled conditions
on day one (26 Jul) and return to mostly quiet levels on day two (27
Jul).  By day three (28 Jul), quiet to active conditions are likely with
the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS.


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