Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX12 KWNP 211231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2018 Feb 21 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low and the visible disk remained spotless. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be very low all three days (21-23 Feb).


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at high levels. The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at high
levels on day one (21 Feb) and decrease to moderate to high levels on
day two (22 Feb) in response to effects from a CIR ahead of a CH HSS. A
return to high levels is expected on day three (23 Feb) due to CH
HSS influences. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to
continue at background levels all three days.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were mostly nominal until near 21/0600 UTC, when a
possible CIR ahead of a negative polarity CH HSS occurred. Total field
reached 9 nT while the Bz component reached a maximum southward
deflection of -8 nT. Solar wind speed ranged from 350 to 450 km/s. The
phi angle was predominantly negative.

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced through day
two (22 Feb) due CIR influences ahead of the negative polarity CH HSS.
Elevated solar wind speed is anticipated to continue into day three (23
Feb) as CH HSS influences continue, but begin to wane.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
Day one (21 Feb) is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Day two (22 Feb)
is expected to be quiet to unsettled, with an isolated active period
likely due to CH HSS influences. Day three (23 Feb) is expected to be
quiet to unsettled as CH HSS effects begin to wane.



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