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FXXX12 KWNP 031235

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Jul 03 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2376 (N12E22, Eao/beta-gamma)
lost some penumbral coverage, but gained more spots and redeveloped
magnetic mixing amongst the groups trailer. The regions increased
instability made it somewhat active as it produced a pair of C-class and
several optical flares. Region 2373 (N16E06, Cso/beta) underwent some
dissipation as it lost spots, but despite the decay and its simple
bipolar magnetic configuration, the region is located along a contorted
section of the solar sector boundary. This may have contributed to its
instability, as it produced several C-class and optical flares.

Region 2378 (S17E62, Dso/beta) rotated further onto the visible disc
allowing for a better analysis of it structure, but magnetic
classification remained difficult due to its proximity to the limb. The
region proved somewhat unstable as it produced several C-class and
optical flares, to include the largest flare of the period, a C5/Sf at
03/0305 UTC. Newly numbered NOAA region 2379 (S15E51, Bxo/beta) changed
little during the period and remained relatively stable. The remaining
two regions were little changed and inactive.

An eruptive prominence from just beyond the northeast limb was observed
in SDO/AIA 304 imagery beginning at 02/1700 UTC and had an associated
coronal mass ejection (CME) first observed in SOHO/LASCO C2 coronagraph
imagery beginning at 02/1800 UTC. Analysis of all available imagery,
indicates the CME is likely to be well north and east of the Earths
orbital plane. A 17 degree long filament over the far SW quadrant of the
Sun, centered near S39W50, became active and disappeared beginning about
03/0400 UTC. Analysis of available imagery indicates an eruption was
unlikely and most of the material reabsorbed. No Earth-directed CMEs
were observed during the period.

Solar activity is expected to be low with a slight chance for M-class
(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flare activity over the next three days (03-05
Jul) primarily due to the flare potential from regions 2376, 2373, and

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at high levels and reached a
peak flux of 5446 pfu at 02/1710 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux was slightly elevated to start the period, but returned to near
background levels by the end of the period.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to
high levels on days one and two (03-04 Jul). The onset of a co-rotating
interaction region (CIR) late on day two to early on day three (05 Jul)
is expected to prompt a flux decrease to normal to moderate levels. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to return to background
levels by the end of day one (03 Jul) and remain at background levels
for the remainder of the forecast period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field parameters reflected an
ambient solar wind environment. Solar wind velocity continued to
decrease from initial values near 360 km/s to end-of-period values
averaging near 325 km/s. Total magnetic field values were steady
between 2-4 nT and Bz was predominately northward, but did have a few
southward deflections. The phi angle was steady in a positive (away from
the Sun) solar sector orientation.

Solar wind parameters are expected to remain at background levels on day
one (03 Jul) through most of day two (04 Jul). Late on day two (04 Jul)
into day three (05 Jul), the onset of a CIR followed by a negative
polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) is expected to prompt a
solar wind increase, possibly in excess of 600 km/s based on recurrence
from the previous rotation.


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet this period under a nominal solar wind

The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet on day one (03 Jul) under
an ambient solar wind environment. Quiet to unsettled field activity is
expected late on day two (04 Jul) due to the onset of a CIR. The onset
of a recurrent negative polarity CH HSS is expected to cause periods
of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions on day three (05 Jul). is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.