Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 251948
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
348 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Periodic light rain will continue over the next few days, as
moisture and several upper air disturbances overrun a nearby frontal
zone. For the most part, seasonably chilly conditions will
prevail this weekend, with temperatures mainly in the thirties
and forties. Milder air should push in on Monday, with highs
back into the fifties.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Cold front has sagged south of northeast Pa as of 330 pm with
wind shifting to the north at Hazelton and temperature dropping
into the 50s. Farther north its a chilly early spring day with
temperatures mostly in the 30s from far northern Pa northward
across upstate NY.  A band of rain associated with a deeper
frontal zone is sagging south across southern NY late this
afternoon. This rain will end from north to south early this
evening.

The boundary will begin to lift back to the north later tonight.
Upper level support with this boundary will be weak as ridging
moves across the area at 500 mb however there could be some
spotty light precipitation re-developing in many areas around or after
midnight. With temperatures near or just below freezing from
the Mohawk Valley south through the Catksills some of this could
fall as a bit of freezing rain although amounts will be very
light and coverage will be spotty. Have gone with a winter
weather advisory to cover for this activity in the
aforementioned areas for later tonight. Otherwsie just scattered
showers or spotty drizzle will occur across the rest of the area
as temperatures remain above freezing.

Sunday looks like a cloudy cool day with southeast flow and lots
of low-level moisture leading to scattered light showers. The
best chance for a few showers will be across the eastern
counties where the low level boundary will stubbournly resist
moving too far the north and east. Temperatures will be mainly
in the lower to mid 40s, maybe a bit warmer over the Finger
Lakes. The chance of showers will increase Sunday night as the
next wave approaches our area from the southwest. This wave will
be associated with a surge of warmer air and higher dew points,
although the upper wave will be weakening as it lifts northeast
across the eastern Great Lakes. Still looks like a good chance
for some showers overspreading the area by Monday morning with
temperatures well above freezing.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Low moving through the central lakes into southern Canada will
push moisture across the area Monday, along with mild air. This
will result in rain for much of the day into the evening.
Amounts should be light to perhaps moderate, but with the
snowmelt, some hyrologic issues are possible, mainly in the main
stem rivers. Please see the hydrologic discussion for details.

Much of the rain will end overnight but Tuesday will remain
unsettled with weak cold air advection and light surface flow.
Scattered showers or drizzle is possible as another low passes
through the mid Atlantic region and remains mostly south of our
area.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1034mb high pressure over southern Canada builds into the area
late Tuesday night and Wednesday bringing drier and cooler air.
Temperatures will not be all that much below normal if at all as
the core of the cold air drops into eastern New England. High
does hold off the developing plains low and keeps the area rain
free through Thursday at least. That low develops a strong
southerly flow tapping the open Gulf of Mexico and will bring
rain back to the area sometime on Friday. System passes through
the central lakes and it rather slow moving so showers will
linger over the area into Saturday, which will begin to turn
cooler.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Conditions will be improving across the northern TAF sites late
this afternoon through this evening, while conditions
deteriorate at AVP and remain in the IFR or low MVFR range at
BGM and ELM. Dryer air moving in from the north will allow for
MVFR and occasional VFR conditions to develop at RME and SYR
this evening. Moisture will return across those areas late
tonight with MVFR conditions developing along with possibly some
light freezing rain. Meanwhile, IFR conditions over southern NY
will spread slowly south late today with MVFR conditions
showing up at AVP late this afternoon or early this evening then
continuing through tonight. Most places will have MVFR
conditions during the day Sunday.

Winds will be from the north-northeast late today into this
evening at less than 10 kts shifting to southeast at 5 to 10 kts
late tonight and Sunday.

OUTLOOK...

Sunday night through Tuesday...Restrictions likely from waves
of rain as frontal boundary waffles over the area.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NEW - 245 PM EDT...A rain on snow melt situation is underway
this weekend, and is expected to increase early next week as
temperatures in the 50s-60s become more widespread across the
region. This warmth will also be accompanied by an increase in
surface dewpoints into the 40s.

Model averaged QPF suggests roughly an inch of precipitation
across the area through Monday night. This alone would not be
enough to trigger any flood worries, however, the almost 2.5" of
liquid water content across the headwaters of the Upper
Susquehanna, Delaware and the Oneida-Syracuse river basins does
get our attention. After melting, and rainfall contribution, the
operational hydrologic model simulations are getting a few
areas of the Upper Susquehanna and her tributaries to minor
flood stage by the middle of next week. MMEFS ensemble spreads
do also suggest potential for widespread minor flooding and
some chance to reach moderate at a few forecast points. There
remains considerable uncertainty, and time, to not raise any
public flags at this point, however, we have started core
partner decision support for early-look resource and risk
management planning efforts.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 10 AM EDT Sunday for
     NYZ009-037-046-057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...MLJ/MSE
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...DGM
HYDROLOGY...


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