Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
FXUS61 KBGM 231526
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1126 AM EDT Sun Oct 23 2016
A strong low pressure system over eastern Canada will keep windy
and cool conditions over the region today. A fairly weak fast
moving disturbance will bring a quick shot of rain showers tonight
especially over the southern tier and northeast Pennsylvania. Monday
and Tuesday will be brisk and cold with high temperatures only in
the forties to around fifty.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Updated at 11 am... Lake enhanced clouds continue to cover the
western 2/3 of the forecast area generally along and west of I-81
late this morning. Expect these clouds to linger into this
afternoon. Meanwhile another band of clouds and possibly even
scattered light showers is expected to develop over and east of
Lake Ontario later this afternoon as the flow goes to more
westerly and weak warm air advection / low-level convergence will
combine with some lake enhancement with 850 mb / lake temperature
differential aboutn +14 expected. The HRRR model in particular is
bullish in showing these showers developing after 5-6 pm.
Temperatures will rise slowly into the upper 40s to mid 50s. Will
keep the wind advisory going for the Catskill mountains into this
afternoon with gusts mainly 30 to 40 mph slowly diminishing by
late in the day. Previous discussion is below. Previous discussion
Today...A deep 980 mb vertically stacked low pressure system just
north of Maine will gradually continue lifting north into eastern
Canada today. This system will give the region another windy day
with eastern areas expected to see the highest gusts. A wind
advisory will continue for Otsego, Delaware and Sullivan counties
where the higher terrain will see gusts around 45 mph through mid
afternoon. Otherwise it will be a partly cloudy day with highs in
the upper 40s to middle 50s.
Tonight...A fast moving mid level wave in northwest flow will
swing through the region as weak surface low pressure tracks along
the New York/Pennsylvania border. The best timing for rain showers
will be from 03Z-09Z. Will continue with likely pops across much
of northeast Pennsylvania and high chance in the southern tier.
Early this evening as the wave approaches a brief enhancement of
lake effect rain showers may develop southeast of Lake Ontario.
Most models suggest this with the Canadian regional most robust.
Lows will range in the lower to middle 40s.
Monday...Behind this wave a cool northwest flow will develop under
partly cloudy skies. T85 drops to around -5C by midday under 300
flow so will keep slight chance pops for rain showers using this
orientation. Activity is mot expected to be widespread as airmass
is fairly dry. Highs will range in the middle 40s to around 50.
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
This entire period a deep northwest flow of cold air as 850mb temps
fall to -8C. To start the low level flow is 300 but it goes to 330
or 340. This directions means multibands and light amounts.
Connection to Lake Huron may end so only a short fetch of Lake
Ontario to grab moisture. Dry air above this shallow moisture. Cold
enough with the dendrite zone at the top of the shallow moisture.
Snow accumulations will be light and mostly across the higher
elevations at night.
Low temperatures in the 30s Monday night rise into the 40s Tuesday
then drop to around 30 Tuesday night.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A cool unsettled period with a nearly stationary upper level trough
over the northeast US. Cooler than normal to start then warming to
near normal next weekend. To start highs Wed and Thu only in the 40s
with lows around 30 Wed ngt. Warms to highs in the 50s Friday and
Saturday with lows around 40.
High pressure Wednesday moves through quickly. This followed by
strengthening of the trough as a surface low moves northeast through
the lower Great Lakes Thursday to Friday. If showers move in early
enough Thursday it could be a mix of snow and rain. Temperatures
will be around freezing. Some difference on timing with the Euro
slower than the GFS. Also the Euro is slower keeping the showers
into Saturday while the GFS is dry. Keep rain showers going into
Saturday. Given the source of the moisture rainfall amounts do not
look light even with the long duration.
.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Winds will be the main aviation concern today with west/northwest
winds of 15-20 knots with gusts around 30 knots decreasing by mid
afternoon and becoming southwest this evening around 5 knots. Late
in the TAF period the winds will shift to the northwest around
VFR conditions are expected through early this evening. Ceilings
through today will be around 4k ft. Tonight a fast moving system
will bring MVFR ceilings to the southern terminals after 06Z with
vsby restrictions in showers at KELM/KBGM/KAVP.
Monday...Restrictions possible as weak system moves through.
Tuesday - Wednesday...Mainly VFR.
Thursday...MVFR possible in showers.
NY...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for NYZ046-057-062.