Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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709
FXUS61 KBGM 111753
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1253 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH TONIGHT IN PARTS
OF CENTRAL NEW YORK...GENERALLY SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ONTARIO.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE
REGION LATE FRIDAY...BRINGING THE COLDEST AIR MASS SINCE LAST
WINTER. WIND CHILLS WILL BE DANGEROUSLY LOW...WELL BELOW
ZERO...SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. A MODERATING TREND IS
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED AT 1130 AM... MAIN LAKE EFFECT BANDS CONTINUE E-SE OF LAKE
ONTARIO ON ABOUT A 290 FLOW LATE THIS MORNING WITH NUMEROUS
SECONDARY WEAKER BANDS FARTHER SOUTH EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN PA.
BANDS STILL APPEAR TO BE SHIFTING SLOWLY SOUTH AND ARE NEAR THE
THRUWAY LATE THIS MORNING WITH STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY
BANDS TO GET INTO THE CITIES OF SYRACUSE AND UTICA AT SOME POINT
THIS AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECTING SEVERAL INCHES THIS AFTERNOON
FROM NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY EAST TO WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY
WITH LESS TO THE SOUTH. ATMOSPHERE UPSTREAM FROM THESE BANDS IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY DRY AND NO GOOD CONNECTION WITH LAKE HURON /
GEORGIAN BAY CAN BE SEEN ON LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY. ALSO DENDRITIC
SNOW GROWTH POTENTIAL IS NOT OPTIMAL AS THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME
COLD ENOUGH SO THAT ONLY A SHALLOW LAYER ABOVE -20 C EXISTS BELOW
900 MB.

WILL KEEP CURRENT WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES GOING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AS SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW WILL MAKE FOR HAZARDOUS
TRAVEL... ALTHOUGH WARNING TYPE ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO REMAIN JUST
NORTH OF THE CITY OF SYRACUSE THROUGH TODAY... WITH JUST ANOTHER
COUPLE OF INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREAS TO THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES
ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE A FEW DEGREES FROM CURRENT LEVELS WITH
TEENS IN MOST AREAS TO NEAR 20 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN
PA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IS BELOW.

315 AM UPDATE...
WANTED TO SEND OUT AN "EARLY" UPDATE TO REFLECT ON THE CURRENT
SITUATION REGARDING OUR LAKE EFFECT EVENT. WILL SEND OUT A
SEPARATE AFD FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD TO GO OVER THE DANGEROUS
COLD OVER THE WEEKEND. FIRST THINGS FIRST, THE LAKE EFFECT. SEE
OUR WEBSITE FOR OUR LATEST SNOWFALL MAP THAT I JUST POSTED.

WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. I DID SHIFT THE
HEAVIER AXIS OF SNOW FARTHER NORTH, TO REFLECT RADAR TRENDS FROM
YESTERDAY EVENING THROUGH NOW. THE CHANGE WILL INCREASE AMOUNTS IN
WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY QUITE A BIT, WHILE DROPPING OFF
SHARPLY TOWARD THE CITY OF UTICA. I KEPT NORTHERN ONONDAGA IN THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS AS WELL, ALTHOUGH THEY WILL PROBABLY END UP BEING
LOWER OVERALL THAN WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA. THE HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS
NORTHERN ONONDAGA COUNTY IS A REFLECTION OF WHAT WE EXPECT TO
COME, NOT UNDERSTANDING WE HAVEN`T SEE MUCH SNOW HERE YET. WHILE
THE FORECAST GOING FORECAST IS LARGELY UNCHANGED FROM THIS POINT
FORWARD, WE HAVEN`T SEE MUCH SNOW AT ALL FROM THE NEAR THE CITY
OF SYRACUSE SOUTH. THUS I HAVE ADJUSTED TOTALS DOWN ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONONDAGA/MADISON COUNTIES, ALONG WITH NORTHERN
CORTLAND/CHENANGO/OTSEGO.

WHILE THE BAND HAS BEEN MAINLY NORTH OF KSYR AND HAS EVEN WAVERED
BACK INTO NORTHERN ONEIDA, CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE BAND WILL
SINK SOUTH BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. THE LATEST HRRR AND RAP SOUNDINGS
SHOW A MEAN WIND OF 275 NOW, ABRUPTLY SHIFTING TOWARD 290 BY 12Z,
THEN LOCKING IN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. KBUF RADAR SHOWS THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE BAND NEAR KROC IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF
THIS CHANGE AND WILL FOLLOW. SO WHILE THE EVENT HAS PLAYED OUT
WELL THUS FAR ACROSS WEST CENTRAL ONEIDA COUNTY, MANY IN METRO
SYRACUSE AND ALONG THE THRUWAY MAY BE WONDERING WHAT LAKE SNOWS?
DON`T LET YOUR GUARD DOWN YET AS HEAVIER SNOWS WILL SHIFT SOUTH
TODAY. WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS GRADUALLY LOWERING TOWARD 5KFT BY
LATE AFTERNOON, THE OVERALL INTENSITY WILL BE HIGHEST THIS
MORNING, THEN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND INTO EARLY TONIGHT.
SNOWFALL RATES THROUGH MID MORNING WILL STILL BE IN THE 1 TO 2"+
RANGE. THE FLOW REMAINS AROUND 290-300 THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT, BEFORE
THE FLOW BACKS ENOUGH TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST TO LIFT THE BAND OUT OF
OUR AREA TOWARD DAYBREAK FRIDAY. IN ALL A WIDESPREAD, LONG
DURATION 6"+ LOOKS GOOD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NY, WITH CLOSER TO
1 1/2 FEET OVER WESTERN ONEIDA COUNTY. I CONTINUE TO MENTION BLOW
AND DRIFTING SNOW WITHIN AND NEAR THE SNOW BANDS THEMSELVES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

OVERVIEW...SNOW SQUALLS LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG AN ARCTIC FRONT
THAT WILL DELIVER BRUTAL COLD SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, WHICH
WILL RIVAL WHAT WE SAW LAST FEBRUARY.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT....MOST OF FRIDAY WILL BE QUIET WITH A
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC FRONT. THIS FLOW WILL KEEP MOST
OF THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. FRIDAY EVENING THE
ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 0Z AND 06Z SATURDAY. SNOW
SQUALLS LOOK LIKELY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR POOR VISIBILITY AND
SNOWFALL RATES OF MORE THAN AN INCH PER HOUR. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW
STEEP LAPSE RATES OF MORE THAN 8.0 C/KM UP THROUGH 650 MB! IN
ADDITION STRONG OMEGA (LIFT/RISING AIR IN THE ATMOSPHERE) IS FOUND
WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE RIGHT IN THE SNOW GROWTH REGION. THINK BIG
FLAKES, HIGH EFFICIENCY OF ACCUMULATING SNOWS. WILL ADD CHANCE OF
HEAVY SNOW FOR THE FRIDAY EVENING FORECAST. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF A
FEW INCHES LIKELY BUT AGAIN IT WILL BE THE RATE OF FALL WHICH WILL
CAUSE POOR VISIBILITIES AND DANGEROUS ROADS.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...BRUTAL COLD. 850 TEMPS FALL TO BETWEEN
-28C AND -30C! "OFFICIAL" HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS AT
MIDNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW ZERO FOR
TEMPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY IN NY STATE! THIS ALONE IS
COLD BUT A PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN AN OCEAN STORM AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL PRODUCE ENOUGH WIND FOR WIND CHILL
READINGS BETWEEN -10 AND -30. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR EXTREME COLD AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS IN OUR
HWO, ON SOCIAL MEDIA, AND IN OUR ONLINE BRIEFING PACKAGE FOUND AT
WEATHER.GOV/BGM UNDER WEATHER HAZARD BRIEFING AT THE BOTTOM OF THE
PAGE. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE BELOW ZERO EVERYWHERE, WITH -20
READINGS POSSIBLE IN OUR COLDER SPOTS. IMPRESSIVE COLD AND THE
ONLY SILVER LINING IS THE FACT IT WON`T LAST LONG. SEE BELOW FOR
MORE ON MILDER WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
430 PM UPDATE...
ONLY SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SUNDAY AS ARCTIC
HIGH SLIDES EAST RIGHT OVER THE AREA BY LATE DAY. WINDS WILL BE
SIGNIFICANTLY LESS...YET WE START THE DAY WITH SUBZERO
TEMPERATURES SO VERY COLD ANYWAYS. STILL EXPECT SOME LAKE EFFECT,
THOUGH THIS WILL TEND TO BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE DAY HAS THE
HIGH MOVES IN. HIGHS LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE CATSKILLS NORTH TO THE TUG HILL WITH LOW TO MID TEENS
ELSEWHERE.

PATTERN WILL BE PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH FOR CORE OF ARCTIC AIR TO MOVE
OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT MODERATION BACK TO AT
LEAST SEASONAL. MODELS INDICATE THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE EAST WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT BUT THERE IS MODEL
DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING, TRACK, AND INTENSITY. FOR NOW, INDICATE
CHANCE OF SNOW IN GRIDS FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE LOW COULD TRACK FAR ENOUGH WEST TO BRING RAIN TO SOME AREAS
AS EARLY AS TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LAKE EFFECT BANDS WITH IFR TO BELOW ALT MINS FOR VIS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT KSYR AND KRME THIS AFTERNOON...PERSISTING INTO
EVENING FOR KSYR BEFORE LIFTING BACK BRIEFLY INTO KRME LATE
TONIGHT BEFORE ENDING. BLSN WILL ALSO HAMPER VIS THIS AFTERNOON
UNTIL THE WNW WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AND THEN BACK
SOUTHWESTERLY FRIDAY MORNING /VRB TO SE KRME/. FURTHER
SOUTH...THINNER BANDS WILL BRIEFLY VISIT THE OTHER NY
TERMINALS...INCLUDING INTERMITTENT IFR VIS FOR KBGM THROUGH 20Z
AND MVFR VIS FOR KITH. KAVP AND KELM WILL GET FLURRIES BUT LIKELY
NON-RESTRICTING. EXCEPT FOR THE LINGERING KSYR-KRME ISSUES
MENTIONED ABOVE...ALL TERMINALS GO VFR TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI AFTN-NGT...VFR UNTIL STRONG ARCTIC FRONT BLASTS THROUGH WITH
A PROBABLE LOW VIS SNOW SQUALL ROUGHLY 01Z SAT NW TO 07Z SAT SE.

SAT...OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS FROM SCT -SHSN AND GUSTY WINDS/BLSN.

SAT NGT-SUN...LAKE EFFECT SCT -SHSN AND ASSOCIATED BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS KSYR AND PERHAPS KITH-KELM.

MON-TUE...RESTRICTIONS IN POTENTIAL SNOW AS AN EAST COAST SYSTEM
MOVES THROUGH...BEST CHANCE MON NGT-TUE.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NYZ016-017-044>046.
     LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST FRIDAY FOR NYZ009-018-
     036-037.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEDEN
NEAR TERM...HEDEN/MSE
SHORT TERM...HEDEN
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...MDP



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