Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 010608
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
208 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM SLIDING OUT OF THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BRING RAIN TO
NY AND PA, STARTING TONIGHT AND LASTING INTO EARLY MONDAY. A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY AS COOLER AIR ALOFT
MOVES IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
RADARS SHOW RAIN SPREADING EAST TOWARD CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA
IN ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION. MODELS AND SPC ANALYSIS ALIKE SHOW A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET STREAK ACROSS NORTHERN INDIANA AND
OHIO. THIS ENHANCED SOUTHWEST FLOW WAS LEADING TO ENHANCED WARM
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION AND HENCE A LARGE AREA OF RAIN HAS BROKEN
OUT TO OUR WEST AND SOUTH. THIS RAIN WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA BETWEEN 3Z AND 10Z AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET SLIDES
INTO PA AND NY BY 12Z. WE REFINED THE ONSET TIMING OF THE RAIN
BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
REFLECTIVITY PATTERNS. WE LOOKED AT THE HRRR, THE NSSL WRF- ARW
1KM, WRF-ARW, WRF-NMM AND WRF-NMMB AND THE 1 KM NAM NEST. MODEL
CONSENSUS IS FOR THE RAIN TO REACH STEUBEN CO BY 4Z OR SO AND TO A
PIKE CO-BGM-PEO LINE BY 6Z AND TO RME-MSV AROUND 11Z. WE ADJUSTED
THIS UP 1 HOUR BASED ON THE RADAR TRENDS WHICH HAVE THE RAIN
ARRIVING A LITTLE SOONER THAN ALL THESE HI RES MODELS. SO HAVE
PRECIP REACHING STEUBEN CO BY 3Z ...BGM-PEO BY 5Z AND RME- MSV BY
9-10Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
245 PM UPDATE...
A NEAR STEADY STATE RAIN EVENT WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY, WHILE A
QUASI- STATIONARY FRONT LAYS DRAPED ACROSS NY AND PA. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ARE FORECAST FOR MONDAY, AS THE CYCLONE IS SLOW TO PULL
EAST OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

ONE FOCUS PERIOD TO PAY ATTENTION TO IS FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY EVENING, WHEN WARM 850 MB TEMPS COMBINE WITH COOL
AIR ALOFT TO PRODUCE NEGATIVE SHOWALTERS. ELEVATED THUNDER WILL BE
A THREAT. WE BASED OUR PROBABILITY OF THUNDER FIELDS ON THE NAM
DEPICTION OF SHOWALTERS.

DRIER AIR ON TUESDAY SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MIGRATE BACK
TOWARD THE LOWER 60S, THOUGH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER WILL
REMAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE FCST FOR THE LONG TERM AS A CLSD LOW DVLPS OVER THE
LAKES AND MEANDERS ACROSS THE NE CORNER OF THE U.S. PD STARTS OFF
DRY AS TWO AREAS OF LOPRES APRCH...ONE ALONG THE SE US CST AND
ANOTHER OVER THE GREAT LAKES. BY WED AFTN...SHWRS SHD BRK OUT ASTHE
TWO SYSTEMS SLOWLY MERGE. CONSOLIDATION IS COMPLETE BY LATE THU AS
A DEEP AND VERTICALLY STACKED LOW SITS OVER ERN NJ. FROM
THERE...FCST BECOMES LESS CERTAIN AS THE EURO SLOWLY BACKS THE LOW
TO THE NW TO NEAR TORONTO BY LATE FRI. SYSTEM HAS DEEP MOISTURE
FROM THE CSTL SYSTEM...BUT LACKS GOOD FRCG LVG THE LIKELIHOOD OF
WIDESPREAD BUT LGT SHWRS...MAINLY DRIVEN BY AFTN HTG CONV. HAVE
UPPED POPS A BIT AGAIN WITH SOME LIKELY POPS AT TIMES. UNLESS
THINGS CHG...XPCT SLOWLY INCRSG POPS AS WE APRCH THE END OF THE
WEEK AND THE FCST BECOMES MORE CERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIVE CONDITIONS (MAINLY MVFR) CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD, AT MOST SITES, AS LOWER CEILINGS AND RAIN
PREVAIL.

THE EXCEPTION TO THE ABOVE WILL BE THIS MORNING AT KSYR AND KAVP,
WHERE TERRAIN INFLUENCES WITH A LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP
VFR/UNRESTRICTED CONDITIONS GOING. EVEN AT THESE TWO SITES,
THOUGH, MVFR CEILINGS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

AT KBGM AND KITH, STEADIER/HEAVIER RAIN TOWARDS 12Z, COULD PRODUCE
PERIODIC IFR RESTRICTIONS. AT KBGM, PERSISTENT IFR CEILING BASES
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. AT THIS EARLY VANTAGE POINT, SPARSE COVERAGE AND
UNCERTAIN DEVELOPMENT PRECLUDE THEIR MENTION IN THE TERMINAL
FORECASTS.

AS FOR THE SURFACE WINDS, THEY WILL BE S-SE THROUGH THE PERIOD,
AVERAGING 8-12 KT. SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE AT
KAVP, AND UP TO 20-25 KT ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AT KSYR,
KITH, AND KBGM.

OUTLOOK...

MON...RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY IN LOWER CEILINGS AND OCCASIONAL
RAIN, ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.

TUE...VFR IS EXPECTED.

WED-THU...MORE RESTRICTIONS ARE PROBABLE IN LOWER CEILINGS AND
SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DGM
AVIATION...MLJ


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