Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 272331
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
731 PM EDT Sat May 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated showers, and patchy drizzle, over portions of central
NY will continue this evening before ending overnight. Mostly
dry conditions will then prevail through Sunday afternoon. The
next storm system will move into the area Sunday night and last
through most of the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
715 PM Update...
Broad cyclonic flow over the region will be gradually replaced
by ridging aloft later tonight and Sunday. The stubborn light
showers, and patches of drizzle, across our eastern zones will
hang on for the next several hours, but should finally dissipate
overnight. The latest mesoscale guidance indicates this trend,
but also keeps the region rather cloudy. Have upped the cloud
cover for tonight across most of the area, with the only real
hope for at least partial clearing to be our counties across the
Central Southern Tier and parts of NEPA where there are already
openings in the cloud cover. Due to light flow, and abnormally
moist boundary layer conditions, any clearing may become self
destructive with areas of fog and low stratus. Temps, dewpoints
and wind were still trending fine, so no changes at this time.

Previous discussion...
Any fog/low clouds are expected to clear out fairly quickly
Sunday morning as the next storm system will start to approach
the area and return flow will quickly develop over the region.
The next system will bring rain showers as early as Sunday
evening and will last through Sunday night. Sfc temps will rise
into the low to mid 70s across much of the area on Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Monday...Best forcing occurs during the morning hours as a mid
level short wave and weak surface occlusion moves through. Will
continue with likely pops for almost all areas through early
afternoon then back off to chance as better forcing moves east.
Due to some low/mid level instability will include slight chance
for thunderstorms. Highs will range from the mid 60s in the
western Catskills to mid 70s in the lake plain.

Monday night will be mainly dry and partly cloudy under
southwest flow.

Tuesday...Upper level low will remain over southern Ontario with
showers expected to increase during the late morning and afternoon
with daytime heating. Will carry just chance pops through
morning then likely for much of central New York by afternoon.
Models indicate some surface based CAPE and mid level
instability so will continue with slight chance for thunder.
Highs will range in the lower to middle 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Upper level low will remain over eastern Canada through late
next week keeping showery weather over the area especially
during the afternoon/evening hours. Will continue with chance
pops during the daylight hours and slight/dry in the overnight
periods. Latest model trend is to hold onto the upper level
trough through Friday so we introduced chance/slight chance
pops on Friday. For now will keep Saturday dry with building
upper level heights and surface high pressure building down from
central Canada. Temperatures through the period will be close
to seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
It now appears that a fairly solid stratocumulus deck (mostly
VFR cloud bases) will hold for most of the night. As a result,
we`ve scaled back on the extent of restrictive conditions, now
only indicating some potential for some brief fuel alternate-IFR
restrictions towards daybreak in patchy fog/lower stratus
clouds.

On Sunday, any early restrictions should be gone by 14-15z, with
VFR anticipated thereafter. There is a low probability of
showers and thunderstorms after 22-23z at KELM/KBGM/KAVP, but
these chances are insufficient to mention in the terminal
forecasts at this early juncture.

Light winds overnight will become SE at 5-10 kt Sunday.

Outlook...

Sunday night...Restrictions possible, with the likelihood of
showers.

Monday through Thursday...Restrictions possible from scattered
showers and perhaps thunder.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB/KAH
NEAR TERM...JAB/KAH
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...KAH/MLJ


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