Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 290001
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
801 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL MEAN COOLER,
AND LESS HUMID AIR THROUGH FRIDAY. WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR
RETURNS QUICKLY FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
REDEVELOPING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM CANADA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
745 PM EDT UPDATE...
FORECAST TWEAKED JUST SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS
AND TRENDS. WITH THE AMOUNT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED
TONIGHT...AND BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE...I DID ADJUST SOME OF OUR
COLD DRAINAGE VALLEYS A BIT LOWER FOR MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COOL...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT WITH DEWPOINTS
DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 50S. GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS EASILY
INTO THE MID-UPR 50S...IF NOT COLDER. WOULDN`T BE TOTALLY
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME OF THE OUTLYING COLDEST ELEVATED VALLEY
SPOTS TO DIP INTO THE 40S. WE DO HAVE SOME OF THE FORECAST GRID
POINTS TOUCHING 50 HERE AND THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS QUICK TO EXIT THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH MILDER
S-SW FLOW RETURNING ALOFT. MODELS IN A BIT OF FLUX BY LATE IN THE
DAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. NAM SEEMS MOST
BULLISH AT DEVELOPING SHRA/TSRA UP INTO NEPA AND THE SRN TIER NY
BY 00Z SATURDAY. TEND TO THINK THAT CONVECTIVE INDUCTION WILL BE
MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WRN PA...SO FOR THIS REGION JUST A
MAINLY SUNNY AND SEASONABLY MILD DAY IS IN ORDER.

MOVING INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE SHOULD BE A DIURNAL TREND TO
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...HOWEVER MOST MODELS DO SUGGEST A PATTERN
THAT WILL HAVE SUBTLE FAST MOVING WAVES TRANSLATING ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. CAN`T RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS OR THUNDER
SO HAVE BEEN COMPELLED TO INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...ALTHOUGH MUCH
OF THE AREA SHOULD BE RAIN FREE.

THEN...SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY FEATURES A WARM SEMI-TROPICAL
PLUME OF MOISTURE MOVING INTO A SLOW...SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT
SUPPORTED BY A BROAD NORTHERN STREAM TROF ADVANCING ACROSS
SOUTHERN-EASTERN CANADA. MODEL TRENDS HAVE SLOWED THE PROGRESSION
OF THE SFC FRONT WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE. WE HAVE ALSO HELD BACK ON
ADVANCING POPS THROUGH THE REGION NOW WELL INTO SUNDAY. COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY OF SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BE GREATEST ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL NW-SE TREND OF THE BROAD AREA
OF SHOWER ACTIVITY INTO SUNDAY...WITH JUST LINGERING CHANCES
ACROSS NEPA AND SE NY LATE IN THE DAY. SREF ENSEMBLES DO SUGGEST
REASONABLE CONFIDENCE IN QPF AMOUNTS POSSIBLY OVER A HALF INCH FOR
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH ACTUALLY WOULD BE A WELCOME
RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF THE AREA AS BOTH SHORT AND LONG TERM PRECIPITATION
IS LACKING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A TROF OVER EASTERN CANADA AND
NORTHEASTERN NY. THE TROF WILL FILL THROUGH MONDAY EVENING, AND BY
MID WEEK, THE RIDGE WILL REBUILD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NY
AND PA.

A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE MONDAY, WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY HANGING AROUND THE MID TO UPPER 60S. ONCE
THE RIDGE REBUILDS, THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL END AND
SUNNY/WARM WEATHER WILL RETURN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS EXCEPT FOR VALLEY FOG CONCERNS.
CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT TO CALM WIND OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW VALLEY FOG
TO DEVELOP. MOST CONFIDENT AT KELM 06Z ONWARD...AND ESPECIALLY
09Z-13Z PERIOD DURING WHICH CONDITIONS WILL BE NEAR AIRPORT MINS
AT TIMES. EXPECTING LIGHTER MVFR MIST FOR KAVP...WITH AN EASTERLY
FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE PROVIDING ENOUGH DOWNSLOPING-STIRRING TO
PREVENT WORSE CONDITIONS. I DO NOT HAVE FOG IN TAF FOR KRME FOR
LACK OF CONFIDENCE...BUT MODEL SOUNDING SUGGESTS SOME POTENTIAL.
KBGM SOUNDING ALSO SHOWS SOME FOG POTENTIAL BUT THE DRY AIR MOVING
INTO THE AREA SHOULD LIMIT FOG TO VALLEY LOCATIONS SO NO FOG IN
TAF. DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...WIND WILL BE PRIMARILY S-SSW 6-8 KTS
EXCEPT FOR SE KSYR- KRME.

.OUTLOOK...

FRI NGT...VFR.

SAT-SAT NGT...SHRA AND SCT TSRA WITH ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR.

SUN-MON...CHANCE OF -SHRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY
SOUTHERN TERMINALS.

TUE...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAB
NEAR TERM...JAB/MDP
SHORT TERM...JAB
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...MDP



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