Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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506
FXUS61 KBGM 291053
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
653 AM EDT Sat Jul 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
The weekend and Monday will be dry with high pressure centered
over the western Great Lakes. Showers from a rare summer
nor`easter will stay in southern Pennsylvania and New Jersey
today and tonight. The next chance of showers will be Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
6 am update...

Minor update to remove all pops now. Rain now at least 2
counties to the south. Temperatures adjusted with north too cold
and south too warm compared to forecast.

3 am update...
Drier air on northerly winds at low levels has pushed showers
south of the CWA early this morning. Dewpoints in the far south
have dropped into the upper 50s. Around 50 in NY. Have mostly
slight chance pops in the far south this morning then dry
afterward. This drying also shown in the clouds in northeast PA
going from 4k to 10k feet. High clouds cover the rest of the
area.

This afternoon some clearing as the short wave starts to push
the surface low to the coast and high pressure builds southeast
from the upper great lakes. Highs in the 70s. Not much moisture
left except maybe northeast PA for scattered cumulus under the
mid and high clouds.

Tonight with the dry air and clearing skies temperatures will be
able to fall into the upper 40s to mid 50s. Only remaining
clouds will be high.

Sunday will be the best day of the week with mainly clear skies.
Continued north winds but lighter at 5 to 10 mph. Highs in the
mid and upper 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A weakening of the persistent northeast upper level trough and
surface high pressure in the central Great Lakes will make for a
rain free period under mainly clear to partly cloudy skies.
Lows Sunday night will range from the middle 50s in the western
Catskills to around 60 in the lake plain. Highs on Monday will
range in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Monday night lows will be
around 60.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
410 am update...No significant changes to extended forecast
just minor tweaks based on latest model guidance. Latter part
of the extended, Thursday through Saturday, looks fairly active
once again as an upper level trough and associated slow moving
cold front moves through the eastern Great Lakes.

3 pm update... On the large-scale, an eastern Canadian-eastern CONUS
upper trough will stay in place, while an upper ridge holds firm
over the western states. In general, this pattern will keep any
true summer-time heat confined to areas well to our west and
south, with temperatures near climatology in CNY/NEPA for late
July-early August.

At the beginning of the period (through Tuesday), a fairly dry
NW flow will keep any shower activity isolated-widely scattered
in nature, with mostly rain-free weather. However, as next week
wears on, a short-wave trough in the upper-levels will slowly
track from the upper Midwest/northern Great Lakes towards our
region, along with a surface cold front. As these features near,
moisture should increase, with a better chance for showers and
thunderstorms from Wednesday onward.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
7 am update...

VFR conditions will prevail all terminals for the forecast
period. All NY terminals will be under broken to overcast high
clouds this morning becoming clear tonight.

At AVP overcast ceilings have become mid to high clouds now
too. Also becoming clear late today or evening.

Winds light and variable early changing late morning and
afternoon to 10 kts with gusts to 20 kts. Tonight winds light
and variable.

Outlook...

Sunday to Tuesday morning...Outside of early morning fog
(mostly KELM), mainly VFR.

Tuesday afternoon to Wednesday...Scattered showers/storms may
bring brief restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...MLJ/RRM
AVIATION...TAC



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