Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 040105
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
905 PM EDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION TODAY.
THIS FRONT HAS PRODUCED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TAKE CONTROL AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT,
RESULTING IN DRY AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
9 PM UPDATE...

OUR CURRENT FORECAST IS IN EXCELLENT SHAPE, WITH JUST SOME MINOR
TEMPERATURE TWEAKS REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.

ISOLATED RESIDUAL CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WANE EARLY THIS EVENING
OVER PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN CATSKILLS AND NORTHERN PA, AND IT
SHOULD BE GONE ALTOGETHER BY 10-11 PM.

GIVEN SURFACE DEW POINTS STILL IN THE 60S-LOWER 70S AND CLEARING
SKIES/LIGHT WINDS, LOCALLY DENSE FOG SEEMS QUITE LIKELY, AND IS
WELL COVERED IN THE GRIDS.

2 PM UPDATE...

CONVECTION STARTED MIDDAY WITH ENOUGH HEATING TO BREAK THE CAP.
CONVECTION IS SLOW MOVING WITH THE WEAK WINDS. THIS HAS LEAD TO
SOME HIGH AMOUNTS OF RAIN IN NRN ONEIDA COUNTY WHICH HAS SINCE
DIED. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UL SHORT WAVE IS SLOWLY MOVING
SOUTH. PLENTY OF CAPE OF 2K BUT LITTLE SHEAR TO KEEP THUNDERSTORMS
GOING. ONLY THREAT THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVE WILL BE HAIL.
CONVECTION WILL DIE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

TONIGHT PARTIAL CLEARING ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH WITH DRIER AND
LESS HUMID AIR MOVING IN. LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE SOUTH CLOSER TO
THE FRONT. WITH THE CLOUDS SOME LIGHT FOG BUT THE THICKER VALLEY
FOG WILL AGAIN BE MORE WIDESPREAD IN SOUTH CENTRAL NY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
2 PM UPDATE...

FRIDAY DIURNALLY INDUCED CONVECTION AGAIN BUT THIS TIME ON S EDGE
IN NE PA. THIS AREA WILL BE CLOSER TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TERRAIN
WILL HELP WITH ADDED CONVERGENCE WITH THE WEAK WIND FIELDS. THIS
SHOULD ALL DIE TOWARDS SUNSET.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE PROVINCE OF QUEBEC WILL PUSH SW
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND TAKE CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WEEKEND THE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND EXTEND INTO MOST OF NY/PA. ALOFT A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP CONVECTION WELL WEST AND NORTH OF THE
CWA. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGH RISING INTO
THE MID 80S SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH
MID WEEK BEFORE GETTING FLATTENED BY AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE. SFC HIGH
PRES ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL PROVIDE DRY AND HOT
CONDITIONS THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON
THE FROPA TIMING WITH THE GFS MUCH FASTER THAN THE ECMWF.
TYPICALLY THIS TIME OF YEAR UPPER LEVEL RIDGES HANG TUFF AND DELAY
THE PASSAGE OF FRONTS. WILL CARRY CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS FOR
CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY AS A SFC COLD FRONT
WITH WAVES POSSIBLY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONVECTION FROM EARLIER TODAY HAS DIMINISHED OR MOVED SOUTH OF
OUR TERMINALS. THIS EVENING CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES, THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR DENSE VALLEY FOG ACROSS
THE TWIN TIERS. AT KELM INCLUDED CONDITIONS CLOSE TO AIRPORT MINS
BTW 09Z- 12Z, WITH IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE AS SOON AS 05Z. AT
KBGM/KITH, OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS FROM 09Z- 13Z AND MVFR AT
KAVP. AFTER 14Z ON FRIDAY VFR WILL RETURN TO ALL TERMINALS. IT
DOES APPEAR ENOUGH DRY AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT TO
KEEP KSYR AND KRME MAINLY VFR, UNLIKE THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.

NW WINDS AT 5-10 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT N/NE OVERNIGHT THEN E/NE ON
FRIDAY AROUND 5 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED. EARLY MORNING FOG
IS POSSIBLE EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY KELM.

TUESDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES REGION.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...MLJ/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...HEDEN/RRM



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