Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
FXUS64 KBMX 062053
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
253 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016
The upper level trough axis has now shifted east of the area, and
the last remaining areas of sprinkles are also quickly exiting
the area this afternoon. Drier mid level air will continue to
advect into the area this evening, above a moist layer around
2kft. Expect the cloud cover to remain across the area overnight.
Have included patchy fog wording across the higher elevations in
the northeast due to cloud decks that could be low enough to
appear as fog.
Cool advection has slowly spread across the area through the day,
keeping temperatures in the mid 50s across the far northeast, but
allowing the far southeast to warm into the upper 60s. This cool
advection will continue this evening before becoming more neutral
early Wednesday morning. Overnight lows will be in the mid 30s to
lower 40s across the north and in the mid to upper 40s across the
.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Monday.
Despite weak warm air advection on Wednesday, lingering cloud
cover will likely keep temperatures on the cool side with highs
ranging from the lower 50s northwest to lower 60s southeast. No
rain is expected due to relatively dry air above 850mb. A strong
cold front will approach northwest Alabama Wednesday night and
possibly bring some showers to areas north of I-59 before sunrise
Thursday. The better chances for rain will come Thursday morning
as the cold front passes through central Alabama. A broken line of
showers is expected along the front, with rainfall amounts
generally less than one-quarter of an inch.
The coldest air mass of the season will invade Alabama this week with
temperatures well below normal for early December. The coldest
daytime temperatures will be on Friday with forecast highs in the
upper 30s northwest to middle 40s southeast. The coldest morning
will likely be Saturday as the surface highs settles over the
area. Lows Saturday morning will be in the lower to middle 20s,
with some upper teens likely in the colder valleys. A gradual
warm-up on Saturday as the surface winds become southeast. A
northern stream short wave trof will push across the Great Lakes
region on Sunday and push a cold front into Alabama on Monday. The
GFS model shows a more progressive system with a deeper surface
low than the ECMWF model, but either way rain chances will be
increasing early next week.
18Z TAF Discussion.
IFR conditions will persist through early Wednesday despite
today`s trough passage. A few echoes on radar representing -RA/DZ
will continue to move east across the area through early
afternoon, however, the sparse coverage precludes mention at the
terminals. Though drier air is arriving aloft the lower levels
will continue to remain moist despite a surface west wind developing
at this hour followed by expected surface northwest winds later
this afternoon and evening. Breezy conditions can be expected at
times through late afternoon as the 12Z sounding and regional VWP
data indicates higher winds just above the surface. Low CIGS will
be the main concern overnight as winds speeds look to remain high
enough to discourage persistent FG development.
Drier conditions return to the area tonight and Wednesday,
although skies will remain partly to mostly cloudy. Ceilings could
be low enough across higher elevations in the northeast that it
appears foggy tonight. Another storm system will bring a chance
of showers to the area Thursday, with conditions turning much
colder Thursday night through Saturday. Rain chances return again
early next week.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden 39 56 36 45 22 / 10 10 30 40 10
Anniston 42 59 38 48 24 / 10 10 20 40 10
Birmingham 41 57 38 47 25 / 10 10 30 40 10
Tuscaloosa 43 57 38 47 25 / 10 10 30 30 10
Calera 43 58 38 48 26 / 10 10 20 30 10
Auburn 45 60 42 51 28 / 10 10 10 30 10
Montgomery 47 62 42 53 28 / 10 10 10 30 10
Troy 46 62 40 55 27 / 10 10 10 30 10