Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
FXUS64 KBMX 271745
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1245 PM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017
The line of storms can`t get out of AL soon enough. Very warm,
moist, and unstable low level air along and southeast of I-85 may
warm sufficiently for some reintensification of convection in the
marginal risk area. Cells have been able to organize briefly with
broad rotation, but can`t seem to sustain a single updraft for a
prolonged period of time. Just about the time the cells are
organized - they dissipate. With additional heating the concern
is that cells may be able to tap into the rich air. At the same
time however, with the upper low and best dynamics pulling out to
the north, shear profiles are on the decline through the morning.
Bottom line is that while there may be sufficient fuel for perhaps
significant thunderstorms, organization of sustained updrafts may
be difficult to achieve. We will continue to keep a sharp eye on
the radar and monitor storm scale features.
18Z TAF Discussion.
Line of storms is not east of all terminals, with a mix of MVFR and
low end VFR cu and stratocu behind the convective line. Expect these
clouds to remain across the area through much of the afternoon,
diminishing this evening around sunset. West to northwesterly winds
will remain elevated at most locations thru this afternoon, at 8-
Tonight, winds will turn to the south as a warm front lifts back to
the north. Expect clouds to spread back northward with IFR cigs
across the south and MVFR to the north. Given low level moisture,
fog development is also possible.
A cold front will continue to bring showers and thunderstorm to the
area through this morning. Storms will be strong to severe with
heavy rainfall. Drier conditions are expected by late afternoon,
with another good chance of storms late Sunday afternoon into Sunday
night. There could also be some isolated showers and storms on
Friday but those chances remain small. Otherwise, there are no fire
/Issued 647 AM CDT Thu Apr 27 2017/
As of 08:30Z/3:30AM, a line of thunderstorms continues to move
eastward through central Alabama. The environment is characteristic
of weak surface-based instability/few swaths of modest mixed-layer
instability (across southern counties), alongside deep-layer bulk
shear values around 50-knots + high helicity values, and steep lapse
rates above the top perimeter of a low-level inversion.
We launched a special 07Z balloon, which unfortunately popped very
early as it went inside downstream convective elements. We gathered
just enough data to see that a low-level inversion remains strong,
centered just above 850mb at 15.6C/60F. We also had a thermal
inversion around 500mb on the 00z sounding and it appears that the
temperature reading may have been reflecting that once again before
transmission stopped. Steep lapse rates were observed above the
inversion, but the inversion is a big detriment tonight. Speed and
directional wind shear remain well-off, with quite a bit of
curvature on the hodograph. A bit of veer-back-veer profiling was
evident, though. Dew points have been rising several degrees just
ahead of the line of storms, which is where capping is most offset.
Given background wind shear and influxes in surface/low-level
moisture, we will have to remain vigilant for any instance of a
storm becoming surface-based. The highest potential (which is low
overall) for severe storms is primarily south of I-20 for the
remainder of the overnight and into the morning hours post-sunrise.
Refer to the Severe Thunderstorm Watch area for our focus area.
That`ll be the best zone for accessed instability to overlap shear
values + the more cellular nature of the storms. We could still
have an instance(s) of damaging straight-line winds, hail, and
perhaps a brief tornado. Farther north, rain with some boomers is
Tonight through Wednesday.
All of the rain should be east of the area by tonight and skies
will continue to clear. However, the southeast will be in close
enough proximity to the front that some post frontal stratus may
redevelop. Numerous short term models concur on this idea and made
sure to include in the Sky grids through 10 am. On Friday the
boundary lifts back northward during the day. This added boundary
may be enough to trigger an isolated thunderstorm into the area
during the peak heating of the day, especially with readings in
the mid to upper 80s.
Once this boundary lifts northward by Friday night we should stay
dry for much of Saturday and Saturday night. Models are hinting at
some orographic lifting resulting in isolated thunderstorms
Saturday afternoon in the northeast but will stay dry for now,
given the overall environment.
As we get into Sunday, models have slowed down a little bit with
the overall timing of the front. Still looking for the potential
for some strong to severe storms with it, but it now may not work
into the area until late Sunday afternoon and push through Sunday
night. Much more to be discussed with regards to the severe
potential but with active weather on the radar this morning, will
leave that to the next update.
After this system moves out during the overnight period looks like
we will be drier and a touch cooler as we work into the first week
of May, with another system just on the outside skirts of this
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden 77 56 86 65 89 / 50 0 20 10 10
Anniston 77 59 85 67 89 / 70 0 20 10 10
Birmingham 78 62 87 69 89 / 30 0 20 10 10
Tuscaloosa 78 61 87 70 90 / 20 0 20 10 10
Calera 78 62 86 68 89 / 30 0 20 10 10
Auburn 78 65 84 68 88 / 70 10 20 10 10
Montgomery 82 66 88 68 91 / 60 10 20 10 10
Troy 82 68 87 68 89 / 70 10 20 10 10