Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 030240
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
940 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
EVENING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A COUPLE FOCUS AREAS FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS. ONE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST...WHERE A TS CLUSTER CONTINUES
TO MOVE EASTWARD...WITH SCATTERED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I85. THE SECOND IS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST...ALONG THE
I59 CORRIDOR...WHERE THE SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTHWARD FRONT IS LOCATED.
THIS LINE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THE FRONT EXTENDS BACK INTO CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
WHERE ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT HAS
OCCURRED AND IS PUSHING INTO PICKENS COUNTY.

HAVE STARTED TO TREND POPS DOWN OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL LEAVE A
CHANCE NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS STILL BACK TO OUR NORTHWEST...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THIS HAS SOME SUPPORT WITH
RECENT HI RES GUIDANCE. HAVE ALSO ADDED IN PATCHY FOG AREAWIDE
GIVEN THE MOIST GROUND CONDITIONS AND HIGH DEWPOINTS. BOUNDARY
LAYER WINDS REMAIN AROUND 7 KTS...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT.

14

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

AREA OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED STORMS HAS ALMOST CLEARED BHM/EET, IS
CURRENTLY AFFECTING ANB/ASN/MGM, AND MAY EVENTUALLY AFFECT TOI AS
IT MOVES EASTWARD THIS EVENING. ALSO SEEING SOME ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT NORTHWEST OF BHM/TCL WHICH
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED, AND SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS ARE ALREADY
BEING REPORTED BEHIND THE FRONT AND THESE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND LOWER FROM MVFR TO IFR AT THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES. ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE FOG WILL DEVELOP AHEAD
OF THE FRONT OVER MGM/TOI OVERNIGHT WITH IFR ALSO EXPECTED THERE.
CIGS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING ON TUESDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE NEAR THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES
NEAR THE FRONT.

32/DAVIS


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...MAINLY BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. A MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH
TUESDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA ON
TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON TUESDAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-20. THE RAIN
WILL SHIFT OUT OF SOUTH ALABAMA TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE AREA. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. WARMING TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 651 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016/

A LATE SEASON COOL FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA THIS
AFTERNOON. IT IS SURPRISING THE FRONT HAS MADE IT THIS FAR SOUTH
GIVEN THE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN ALOFT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MAKE
IT DOWN TO THE I-59 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...AND LIKE LAST NIGHT...THE ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY
AFTER SUNSET. AS THE UPPER TROF AXIS OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION
SHIFTS SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY...THE COOL FRONT WILL SINK SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE FRONT WILL BE THE
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ON TUESDAY. THE UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE
TROF IS POSITIVELY TILTED SO THERE IS NOT MUCH UPPER SUPPORT WITH
THE FRONT. THE CONVECTION WILL PEAK DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS...
MAINLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20. A FEW STRONG STORMS
POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-85 AS CAPE VALUES APPROACH 2000
J/KG...BUT HIGHER BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL STAY NORTH OF THE
INSTABILITY AXIS...LIMITING SEVERE POTENTIAL. THERE WILL BE SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING AS THE
FRONT SHIFTS INTO SOUTHEAST ALABAMA. ALL THE RAIN SHOULD BE OUT OF
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF CENTRAL ALABAMA BY MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT.

DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE AREA. A MUCH COOLER AIR MASS WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE DIVES SOUTHWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. SOME OF THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S
ON THURSDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD 40S ACROSS ALL OF CENTRAL ALABAMA
FRIDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND AS AN
UPPER RIDGE OVER TEXAS SHIFTS EASTWARD TOWARDS ALABAMA. NO RAIN
FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     59  76  49  74  48 /  90  30  10  10  30
ANNISTON    61  77  53  74  49 /  70  30  10  10  30
BIRMINGHAM  61  76  53  74  51 /  50  20  10  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  61  77  51  76  51 /  40  20  10   0  10
CALERA      62  76  53  74  52 /  50  30  10   0  10
AUBURN      64  77  54  74  53 /  70  40  20   0  10
MONTGOMERY  66  80  55  77  54 /  60  40  20   0  10
TROY        66  80  55  77  54 /  80  50  20   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



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