Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 230548
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1148 PM CST Sun Jan 22 2017

.UPDATE...
For 06Z Aviation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The surface front that moved through the area earlier today with
a low circling behind it is right now over Chattanooga as it
continues to the east tonight toward the Carolinas. At the same
time, the upper low is spinning currently over Atlanta. We will
continue with rain showers for the remainder of the overnight
hours wrapping around the cold upper low. Lingering low pops in
the northeast on Monday will remain but overall precipitation is
expected to make a quick retreat behind the exiting low. The big
story for Monday will be very tight surface pressure gradients
and thus strong and gusty winds. A wind advisory remains in effect
from midnight through 6 PM for all of Central Alabama. Monday will
feel much cooler with decent cold air advection. Winds are
expected to taper off during Monday night as gradients relax with
a short time of ridging and a gladly accepted break from rain and
storms. However, the flow will turn back around very quickly on
Tuesday ahead of another front. However, with little recovery time
for the atmosphere, at this time we are only expecting rain
showers ahead of the next front for Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Behind the front a surface high pressure ridge extending from the
Dakotas to Texas will slide toward the Mississippi River Valley
and into the Deep South. Hello Winter, we missed you. Temperatures
are expected to go back to normal for late January with 50s/30s
for highs/lows respectively for Thursday and on into next weekend
with no rain expected from Thursday through the end of the
forecast.

08


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Discussion.

A band of light to moderate rain is falling ahead of a wind shift
from southwest to northwest winds associated with a surface low
near Chattanooga. Cigs in this rain band will lower from MVFR to
IFR at times. Winds will shift to the northwest between 7-10Z at
all sites, with a decreasing trend in rain, and likely an end to
the risk for IFR cigs. These northwest winds will gust to 25-30
kts at times overnight and during the day on Monday. Only a brief
improvement in cigs is possible Monday afternoon before cigs lower
again Monday evening.

32/Davis

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Another round of showers and thunderstorms today, with heavy
rainfall at times. Much cooler and breezy tonight with showers
likely. Rain free conditions Monday and Tuesday. No fire weather
concerns.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     48  54  36  60  44 /  90  30   0   0  10
Anniston    48  56  37  61  45 /  90  20   0   0  10
Birmingham  49  56  37  62  50 /  80  20   0   0  10
Tuscaloosa  49  57  37  63  49 /  80  10   0   0  10
Calera      48  56  39  63  48 /  90  10   0   0  10
Auburn      50  58  40  62  47 /  80  20   0   0   0
Montgomery  51  61  40  65  47 /  90  10   0   0   0
Troy        48  61  40  65  47 /  80  10   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST Monday for the following counties:
Autauga...Barbour...Bibb...Blount...Bullock...Calhoun...
Chambers...Cherokee...Chilton...Clay...Cleburne...Coosa...
Dallas...Elmore...Etowah...Fayette...Greene...Hale...Jefferson...
Lamar...Lee...Lowndes...Macon...Marengo...Marion...Montgomery...
Perry...Pickens...Pike...Randolph...Russell...Shelby...St.
Clair...Sumter...Talladega...Tallapoosa...Tuscaloosa...Walker...
Winston.

&&

$$


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