Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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000
FXUS64 KBMX 242326
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
526 PM CST SAT JAN 24 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

GOOD TO SEE THE SUN SHINE TODAY EVEN THOUGH ITS ON THE COOL SIDE.
TEMPERATURES TODAY JUST NOW IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH AND
LOWER 50S SOUTH.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SINCE IT IS SO
QUICKLY ON THE HEALS OF OUR CURRENT SYSTEM...THERE IS NOT A LOT OF
MOISTURE AVAILABLE WITH IT. 12Z TRENDS SHOW DECENT LIFT AND A
LITTLE MORE QPF. THE UPPER LEVELS WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE VERY COLD
SO THE POTENTIAL IS THERE TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW RAIN DROPS ACROSS
THE NORTH OR PERHAPS SOME DRIZZLE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
MEASURABLE RAIN IS STILL IN THE NORTHEAST BUT DID EXPAND THE
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.

BEYOND THAT...THINGS LOOK DRY. A FEW SPRINKLES POSSIBLE THURSDAY
NIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PASSES. STILL SIGNS OF A SIGNIFICANT
COOL DOWN SOMETIME BETWEEN 8 TO 12 DAYS OUT.

88

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WESTERLY
WINDS THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE SOUTHWEST. FORECAST GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT IS SPLIT ON WHETHER LOW
CLOUDS RETURN TO THE AREA. THERE IS VERY WEAK UPLIFT AS LOW LEVEL
WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT DO NOT
SEE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO MENTION ANYTHING OTHER THAN A SCT DECK AT
THIS TIME. ONLY OTHER AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS UP TO 18KTS.

14

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     30  56  36  43  30 /   0  20  30  10   0
ANNISTON    32  58  38  45  31 /   0  10  20  10   0
BIRMINGHAM  34  58  38  45  33 /   0  20  20  10   0
TUSCALOOSA  34  60  38  48  34 /   0  20  10   0   0
CALERA      34  58  38  46  33 /   0  10  20  10   0
AUBURN      35  57  39  49  33 /   0   0  10  10   0
MONTGOMERY  33  62  40  50  33 /   0   0  10   0   0
TROY        34  62  40  51  34 /   0   0  10   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$











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