Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 242034
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
334 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT SEEMS TO BE RELATIVELY WELL-DEFINED NEAR THE I-59
CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON WHERE WINDS ARE SHIFTING FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST. NUMEROUS SMALL SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE
CONFLUENCE ZONE JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN A FAIRLY NARROW BAND
WHERE MOISTURE POOLING HAS OCCURRED. WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE
BEHIND THE FRONT...POST-FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT
BUT IS UNLIKELY THROUGH THE EVENING. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
TONIGHT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA AS THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD...EVENTUALLY STALLING
SOMEWHERE NEAR MONTGOMERY OR CLANTON OVERNIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG
POSSIBLE NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.

THE DEEP-LAYER DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MAKE LITTLE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS FOR FRIDAY WITH DECENT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE NORTH. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE A BIT INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS 500MB
HEIGHT RISES OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE
RISE AS A RESULT...WITH 90S RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND.

MODELS AGREE THAT A LARGE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY BY MONDAY...WHICH WILL DRIVE A MUCH STRONGER
FRONT SOUTHWARD. MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY LEAD TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS...POSSIBLY ORGANIZING INTO A LINE AS
25-35 KT 500MB WINDS OVERSPREAD THE REGION. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CLEAR THROUGH THE CWA WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

87/GRANTHAM

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG LIFTED AS EXPECTED THIS MORNING...WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE QUICKLY LIFTING INTO CU/TCU ONCE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE WAS REACHED THIS MORNING. SHRA DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA ATTM...AND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE. NO
CONFIDENCE FOR SPECIFIC TIME COVERAGE OF TSTMS AT TAF SITES...SO
HELD TO VCTS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING. APPROACHING FRONT FROM THE NW SHOULD SHUNT ACTIVITY TO
THE SE LATE THIS AFTN...COMING TO AN END EARLIER AT
TCL/BMX/EET/ANB THAN AT MGM/TOI.

BIG QUESTION FOR OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL BE HOW FAR THE FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. LOCATIONS ALONG SE OF FRONT CAN
EXPECT PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...WHILE LOCATIONS N OF FRONT WILL MORE LIKELY BE
PREDOMINANTLY AREAS OF FOG. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN GENERAL...BUT
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO LIFR/VLIFR AT THIS POINT. BEST CHANCES FOR
THAT SHOULD BE MGM/TOI...AND PERHAPS EET/ANB DEPENDING ON HOW FAR
THE FRONT ACTUALLY PUSHES SOUTH THIS EVENING...AND WHETHER OR NOT
IT WAVERS AS FAR NORTH AS SOME MODELS ARE SUGGESTING.

02

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     67  88  69  92  71 /  10  10   0  10  10
ANNISTON    70  89  70  92  72 /  10  20   0  10  10
BIRMINGHAM  70  89  71  92  73 /  10  10   0  10  10
TUSCALOOSA  70  91  71  94  72 /  10  10   0  10  10
CALERA      70  89  71  92  73 /  10  20   0  10  10
AUBURN      71  88  72  92  72 /  40  50  20  10  10
MONTGOMERY  72  91  72  93  73 /  40  40  20  10  10
TROY        72  89  72  92  72 /  40  50  30  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

87/02





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