Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 251201
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
701 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

MVFR CIGS ON E/ESE FLOW FLIRTING WITH ANB/ASN...BUT ANY CIGS
SHOULD DISSIPATE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AXIS OF SHOWERS/TSTMS AHEAD
OF UPPER IMPULSE WILL SPREAD INTO W AL THIS MORNING...AND ADDED
HEATING OF THE DAY SHOULD SEE SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN SHOWER/TSTM
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTN. GAVE ALL TAF SITES A 2 HOUR WINDOW OF
MOST LIKELY TSTM ACTIVITY WITH MVFR CIGS...BUT AMDS WILL LIKELY BE
NECESSARY. EXPCT SHOWERS TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS.

LEFT OVER MOISTURE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH DIMINISHING BL WINDS
POINTS TOWARDS MORE OF A FOG/HAZE SITUATION THAN CIGS...BUT WILL
DEFER THAT FORECAST TO SUBSEQUENT TAF SETS.

JD/02

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 337 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015/
SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TUESDAY.

AS FORECAST BY THE MODELS...MOST OF THE RAIN HAS BEEN CONFINED TO
THE STATE OF MISSISSIPPI OVERNIGHT...NEAR THE LEADING EDGE OF A
SLOW MOVING SHORT WAVE TROF. THE SHORT WAVE TROF WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK EASTWARD AND EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER WEST ALABAMA BY SUNRISE. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...DIURNAL
HEATING WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. STEERING LEVEL WINDS ARE RUNNING
ABOUT 190 DEGREES...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN TRAINING OF CELLS AND
LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS RATHER HIGH WITH
1 HOUR GUIDANCE IN THE 2.5-3 INCH RANGE...SO A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
WILL NOT BE ISSUED AT THIS TIME. THE BETTER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
SHOULD SHIFT INTO EASTERN ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE
TROF AXIS LIFTS NORTHEAST. WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
WEAKENING OF SHORT WAVE TROF...CONVECTION SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY
THIS EVENING.

MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER
IMPULSE ROTATES OUT OF UPPER TROF OVER THE MIDWEST STATES. THE
GFS IS INDICATING AN AREA OF HIGHER 0-6KM BULK SHEAR MOVING INTO
NW ALABAMA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALONG WITH COOLER MID LEVEL
TEMPERATURES...GFS SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES ARE NEAR 2500 J/KG.
THE NAM AND ECMWF MODELS ARE NOT AS ROBUST AS THE GFS. GIVEN
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
WEST ALABAMA TUESDAY MORNING...CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW THAT THE
AIR MASS WILL BE ABLE TO DESTABILIZE ENOUGH BY AFTERNOON FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE STORMS...AND WILL NOT MENTION ANY SEVERE
THREAT AT THIS TIME.

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD UPPER
TROF AXIS ON WEDNESDAY. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 1.7
INCHES...EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
DURING AFTERNOON HEATING. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AN UPPER
HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AS A SHORT WAVE TROF
DEVELOPS OVR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL LEAD TO LESS
DIURNAL ACTIVITY OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA AND WARMER DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES. OVER THE WEEKEND...A LOW LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER
THE GULF COAST REGION AND BETTER RAIN CHANCES WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHERN HALF OF ALABAMA.

58/ROSE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     80  69  81  69  81 /  70  50  70  60  70
ANNISTON    80  70  82  69  80 /  70  50  70  60  70
BIRMINGHAM  80  70  81  69  82 /  80  50  80  60  70
TUSCALOOSA  80  70  81  69  82 /  80  50  80  60  70
CALERA      80  69  82  68  82 /  80  50  80  60  70
AUBURN      83  68  82  68  80 /  70  40  60  60  60
MONTGOMERY  84  71  83  70  83 /  70  40  70  60  60
TROY        85  69  83  68  83 /  70  40  60  50  60

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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