Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 310454
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1154 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.UPDATE...
For 06Z Aviation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Convection that popped up this afternoon has dissipated, and we
should have rain free conditions through the rest of the night.
Made a few minor adjustments to hourly temps and dewpoints.
Otherwise, the forecast is on target.

/61/


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF Discussion.

Other than a brief period of MVFR ground fog/haze at a few sites,
terminal forecast remain VFR the next 24 hours.

The terminal forecasts look very persistent this forecast
package. Rather weak surface features of a ridge north and broad
low relative low pressure south will keep light throughout. The
winds may be somewhat variable but believe a west to northwest
component will be noticed by afternoon. High cloud blow off from
the west and a few cumulus expected on Tuesday. Not much in the
way of convection again tomorrow but can not completely rule it
out, but certainly not high enough chance for mentioning at this
point.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Look for only low to minimal rain chances through the middle of
the week with above normal temperatures. Rain chances will
increase after Wednesday as upper level toughing pushes slowly
southward into Alabama. There are no fire weather concerns at
this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/Issued 234 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016/
SHORT TERM...
Tonight and Tuesday.

Weak surface ridging is present today across much of Alabama on the
dry side for the most part of what is left of Bonnie with the
exception of the southern part of the state and into the Florida
panhandle in associated with a surface boundary. We do have decent
cumulus development evident on visible satellite thanks to ample
heating and some tiny showers here and there on the radar. Any
showers that pop up should be short lived and not strong. Will not
carry any mentioned rain chances for tonight as these are heat
induced storms. Expecting any lingering activity to die off near
sunset with the loss of heating. For Tuesday, looking for the
ridging to have an even better hold on the pattern as the low
pressure associated with Bonnie deteriorates further. Only a 10%
very low chance of shower activity is expected. Temperatures will be
similar to today.

08

LONG TERM...
Tuesday night through Sunday.

Mainly isolated storms expected during the afternoon hours
through the work week with temperatures above normal through
Wednesday. The upper ridge will slowly weaken beginning Wednesday
as a short wave trough moves into the Plains states and pushes an
upper trough axis towards the Lower Mississippi Valley region.
However, rain chances will generally not increase due to weak flow
and lift to the south of the trough axis.

As we progress towards Friday, the upper trough axis will become
nearly stationary near the Alabama and Tennessee state line due to
a cut-off low over Texas. This pattern will not bring significant
rainfall to central Alabama, but there will be chances of rain
every day and increasing some as we reach Saturday and Sunday as
the upper low begins to open up and gradually shift eastward as a
second upper wave pushes through the Ohio Valley region. The
increase in moisture at the end of the week and into the weekend
will also limit daytime temperatures to values closer to average.

88

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     64  90  63  89  66 /  10  10  10  20  20
Anniston    66  90  66  90  67 /  10  10  10  20  20
Birmingham  68  91  69  92  70 /  10  10  10  20  20
Tuscaloosa  69  92  67  92  69 /  10  10  10  20  20
Calera      68  91  69  91  69 /  10  10  10  20  20
Auburn      68  90  69  90  69 /  10  10  10  20  10
Montgomery  69  93  70  94  70 /  10  10  10  20  10
Troy        69  93  68  93  69 /  10  10  10  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$


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