Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 071703 AAA
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1203 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.UPDATE...
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT IS DRAPED FROM MI...ACROSS IL...DOWN TO TX ALLOWING
FOR A SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE MS VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE
IS BEGINNING TO BUILD INTO THE SE AND WILL BE THE KEY PLAYER IN
BRINGING WARMER TEMPS BACK INTO THE FORECAST. IT WILL ALSO HELP
KEEP PRECIP CHANCES LOW.

MAIN UPDATE FOR TODAYS FORECAST WAS TO EXPAND THE ISOLATED
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
SLIGHTLY REDUCE CLOUD COVER. EASTERN ZONES HAD MORE SUNSHINE THIS
MORNING TO ASSIST WITH INCREASED INSTABILITY BUT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES COULD SPARK DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST FIRST. HIGH RES
MODELS ARE ALSO PICKING UP ON CONVECTION IN CENTRAL MS MOVING
INTO CENTRAL AL THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 90S WITH SW
WINDS THAT COULD BE BREEZY /10-20KTS/ AS THEY MIX THIS AFTERNOON.

31

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SOME LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING HAVE PUSHED NORTHWARD OUT OF
MISSISSIPPI...AND HAVE AFFECTED KTCL...AND KEET. THE LOW CLOUDS
SHOULD NOT LAST VERY LONG ONCE MIXING OCCURS WITH THE FULL
SUNSHINE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH VERY LOW SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AND
REMAIN LIGHT.

56/GDG


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 300 AM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/

LET ME WELCOME EVERYONE BACK TO A TYPICAL SUMMER DAY ACROSS
CENTRAL ALABAMA. AFTER A COUPLE OF WEEKS WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL...WE FINALLY GET BACK TO A
NORMAL SEASON WITH A BUILDING BERMUDA HIGH THROUGH THE WEEK. IN
FACT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON THE GFS IS GOING WITH A 594 RIDGE OVER
THE AREA. THE RIDGE CONTINUE TO BUILD AND BROADEN OUT ON
SATURDAY...SO EXPECT THE WARMEST READINGS TO BE AT THE END OF THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

BY SUNDAY THE RIDGE RETROGRADES TO THE WEST AND A TROUGH BEGINS TO
SLIDE DOWN THE EAST COAST. WHILE THE TROUGH NEVER REALLY DIGS INTO
THE SOUTHEAST IT WILL PUT US BACK IN THE FUN NORTHWEST FLOW ON
MONDAY...SO WE WILL LIKELY SEE A LITTLE BIT MORE IN RAINFALL
COVERAGE AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. QUESTION THIS FAR OUT WILL BE
WHERE DOES THE BEST NORTHWEST SET UP AND HOW MUCH INFLUENCE WILL
THE RIDGE STILL HAVE BY MID WEEK. WE COULD VERY EASILY HAVE
A SCENARIO WHERE EVERYONE HAS A GOOD SHOT AT RAIN...OR JUST THE
EAST HALF OF THE AREA. UNTIL THEN WE WILL GO WITH THE TYPICAL HIT
AND MISS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE REST
OF THE FORECAST WITH HIGHS WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S BY
THE END OF THE WEEK.

16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     92  71  92  71  93 /  20  10  20  10  20
ANNISTON    90  71  92  72  92 /  20  10  20  10  20
BIRMINGHAM  92  74  93  74  93 /  20  10  10  10  20
TUSCALOOSA  93  73  95  74  96 /  20  10  10  10  20
CALERA      90  73  93  73  93 /  20  10  10  10  20
AUBURN      90  72  92  72  92 /  20  10  20  10  30
MONTGOMERY  93  73  95  74  95 /  20  10  10  10  20
TROY        93  72  96  73  95 /  20  10  10  10  30

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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