Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 301144
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
644 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS RAPIDLY MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AT 08Z... ALIGNED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VALUES ARE IN THE 40-50KT RANGE...SOME CAPE IN THE -10 TO -30 RANGE
LEADING TO ELEVATED INSTABILITY. SIMULTANEOUSLY...LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND
ATTENDANT WARM FRONT USHER IN MORE MOISTURE. THE GLOBAL AND
MESOSCALE MODELS HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS SITUATION. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONT APPROACH...EXPECT MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA TO RECEIVE RAINFALL. A FEW STORMS MAY ACTUALLY BECOME
STRONG WITH SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY
LOOKS TO BE VERY CLOSE TO THE I-20 CORRIDOR BY SUNRISE AND RUSH
HOUR. THE MAIN BELT OF UPWARD MOTION...MEAN MOISTURE...AND
INSTABILITY EXITS BY 18Z...BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING SOUTH OF I- 20. DUE TO THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM AS A
WHOLE...EXCESSIVE RAIN DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE AN ISSUE BUT A HEAVY
DOWNPOUR OR TWO IS POSSIBLE.

THIS FRONT BECOMES HUNG UP OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA THROUGH TUESDAY AND
GRADUALLY MOVES NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT EXPECTED THROUGH THE STATE ON FRIDAY. THEREFORE...IT APPEARS
THE BEST RAIN CHANCES COME THIS MORNING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY...BUT
WILL BE MENTIONED EACH PERIOD.

AS THE FRONT HANGS AROUND ON TUESDAY...THE AIRMASS HEATS UP WITH
SOME INSTABILITY. THE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS REMOVED FROM THE AREA
BUT WINDS ALOFT PROVIDE SOME SHEAR. SOME SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS
ARE POSSIBLE.

75


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE STEADY
PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH CLEAR EXPECTED WITHIN A COUPLE OF OURS AFTER THE RAIN
MOVES OUT. I`VE TRIED TO TIME THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAIN IN THE
SOUTH...AND THE EXIT OF THE RAIN IN THE NORTH...AS BEST I CAN.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING DRIER AIR BACK INTO THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

/61/

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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