Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 111506
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1006 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.UPDATE...
MORNING UPDATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE MORNING UPDATE IS WITH THE AREA OF
SHOWERS NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. BASED ON ITS CURRENT SIZE AND
TRAJECTORY...IT SHOULD PASS SOUTH OF OUR AREA. HOWEVER...I AM A
BIT CONCERNED THAT THIS SHOWER AREA COULD GROW IN WIDTH AS WELL AS
INTENSIFY. THINK THE BEST COURSE OF ACTION IS TO BEND AT LEAST
SOME SMALL POPS (ON THE ORDER OF 20 PERCENT) UP ON THE WEST SIDE
OF THE STATE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS REMOTE POSSIBILITY.

OTHER THAN THAT...BEST RAIN CHANCES TODAY APPEAR TO REMAIN IN THE
SOUTHEAST. SATELLITE DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER ANALYSIS SHOWS THE
HIGHEST VALUES DOWN THERE. TEMPERATURE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON
TRACK...AND NO BIG ADJUSTMENTS ARE NEEDED THERE.

/61/

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VISIBILITIES WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS FOG LIFTS. WEAK
FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY...AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
INITIAL TS DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...INCLUDING MGM AND TOI. DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD
INTO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT NOT EXACTLY SURE HOW MUCH
SOUTHWARD PROGRESS IT WILL MAKE. WILL NEED TO ASSESS HOW MUCH THE
AIRMASS DRIES LATER TODAY...AND POTENTIALLY ADD A MENTION OF FOG FOR
OVERNIGHT.

14


&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




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