Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL

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FXUS64 KBMX 061005
AFDBMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
405 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.DISCUSSION...

A SHORT WAVE TROF CURRENTLY OVER EAST TEXAS WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
TODAY AND PRODUCE SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS ALABAMA.
HIGHS TODAY WILL NEAR FRIDAYS VALUES WITH 50S AREAWIDE. SLIGHTLY
WARMER ON SUNDAY DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL DIG SOUTHWARD AND BRING A SHOT OF VERY COLD AIR
INTO ALABAMA MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE WILL NOT REALLY BE A
DISTINCT COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM...MORE LIKE A GRADUAL COOL
DOWN AS THE UPPER HEIGHTS FALL. THE COLDEST DAY OF THE PERIOD
WILL BE ON TUESDAY.

THERE WILL BE SEVERAL WAVES OF MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE
SOUTHERN END OF THE UPPER LOW. THE FIRST WAVE WILL ARRIVE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROFILES
SHOW TEMPERATURES TOO WARM FOR ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY
MONDAY WILL CAUSE SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND THERE
COULD BE A TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE. THE AIR MASS SHOULD
BE COLD ENOUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR THE PRECIPITATION TO
FALL AS LIGHT SNOW. ANY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...AND
NO ACCUMULATIONS FORECAST AT THIS TIME. ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL
LIFT OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE COLD CORE UPPER LOW WILL QUICKLY OPEN UP INTO A TROF AND SHIFT
INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE QUICKLY WITH
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 60S BY FRIDAY.

58/ROSE


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A STRONG JET STREAM WILL SWING
OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA FROM WEST TO EAST. ALTHOUGH MOISTURE IS
LIMITED...THIS WILL ALLOW MID AND HIGH LEVEL CEILINGS TO DEVELOP.
A FEW MODELS INDICATE SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE DEVELOPING JUST
AHEAD OF THE FEATURE SATURDAY...BUT THESE CEILINGS WOULD ONLY BE
AROUND 5K FT NEAR ANB/MGM/TOI. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS.
OTHERWISE...LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

75


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. SLIGHTLY MORE
HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH AFTERNOON RH
VALUES REMAINING ABOVE 30 PERCENT. NO RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY. LIGHT RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
ACROSS NORTH ALABAMA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GADSDEN     50  28  54  34  44 /   0   0   0  20  30
ANNISTON    52  30  55  36  46 /   0   0   0  10  30
BIRMINGHAM  52  32  55  37  46 /   0   0   0  10  30
TUSCALOOSA  53  30  57  36  49 /   0   0   0  10  20
CALERA      52  33  56  36  48 /   0   0   0  10  20
AUBURN      51  33  55  37  50 /   0   0   0  10  20
MONTGOMERY  55  31  58  37  53 /   0   0   0  10  10
TROY        55  32  57  37  55 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$


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