Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 041921
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
321 PM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A WEAK DISTURBANCE BRINGS SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE REGION
THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THE TREND WILL BE TOWARDS
DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS
DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE DROPS SOUTH OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.
EXPECT MODERATING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH UPPER 50S TO MID 60S EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 243 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE UP THE
NORTH COUNTRY FROM THE SOUTH AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
GREAT LAKES PUSHES EAST. THE LATEST IR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE
VORT THAT IS SLIDING UP THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH, AND THERE IS SOME DECENT INSTABILITY WITH THE CU FIELD
THAT IS MOVING UP THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK. THERE IS SOME
LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH THAT VORTICITY MAXIMA AND GUIDANCE STILL
POINTS TOWARDS SOME OF THIS INSTABILITY MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS. SO THUNDER REMAINS IN THE FORECAST FOR NEW
YORK HOWEVER NOT FOR VERMONT.

INTO THE EVENING, MOISTURE REMAINS PREVALENT HOWEVER THE ENERGY
SOURCE FOR PRECIP DROPS OFF AS THE SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH.
GUIDANCE CAPTURES THIS FAIRLY WELL AND WITH THE TREND SHOWING UP
IN THE HIRES GUIDANCE I DID GO AHEAD AND RELAX THE POPS OVERNIGHT.
THE LATEST FORECAST HAS NO MENTION OF SHOWERS IN NEW YORK
LATE OVERNIGHT AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS EASTERN
VERMONT. TOMORROW AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CLOSES OFF AND DRAGS
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA EXPECT CONTINUED OVERCAST SKIES WITH
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST NORTHEAST BETWEEN 8-12TS.

TEMPS OVERNIGHT WILL STAY SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT WITH
SLIGHT WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AND THE OVERCAST SKIES. EXPECT MID
40S ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 1500 FEET WILL
LIKELY DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S WHICH IS RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL
NORMS FOR EARLY MAY. TOMORROW EXPECT FAIRLY SIMILAR TEMPERATURES
CONDITIONS TO TODAY WITH 925MB TEMPS IN THE +8C TO +11C RANGE.
THAT PUTS THE FORECAST MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...FROM THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE SITUATED TO
OUR SOUTH...OVER THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. THIS WILL KEEP BEST
DYNAMIC FORCING SOUTH OF THE REGION AS WELL AND THIS SHOULD KEEP
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO OUR SOUTH. SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO SPREAD INTO THE REGION AND CANNOT RULE OUT
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN VERMONT. HAVE GONE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THESE
AREAS BUT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. GENERALLY A COUPLE TENTHS
OF AN INCH OR LESS OF RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN SEASONAL NORMALS WITH LOTS OF
CLOUDS IN PLACE AND MAX TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...ON SATURDAY THAT LOW WILL FINALLY
GET CAUGHT IN THE FLOW AND PUSHED EASTWARD. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM OUR WEST...PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THE ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THIS
FEATURE THAN THE GFS...BUT FEEL THAT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL BE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WE SHOULD SEE SOME DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER
AS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SETS UP.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...GENERALLY VFR TO MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS MVFR CIGS/VSBY ARE EXPECTED IN SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.
GENERALLY MOST OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE DEPICTS SHOWERS
CONTINUING TO FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH
THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION IN THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND EAST OF
THE SPINE OF THE GREENS. I CONTINUED THE IDEA OF FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST OF MOSTLY MVFR CEILINGS IN THE RAIN SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE WINDS IN THE BOTH THE CHAMPLAIN AND SAINT LAWRENCE
VALLEYS HAVE BEEN A TOUCH STRONGER THAN INITIALLY FORECAST WITH
BOTH MSS(NORTHEAST) AND BTV(SOUTHEAST) IN THE 10-15 KNOT RANGE.
THE ONLY SITE WITH LIGHT WINDS AT THE MOMENT IS SLK AND CURRENT
TRENDS SHOULD SEE MOST OF THE REST OF THE SITES BETWEEN 5-10KTS.

SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END LATE THIS EVENING HOWEVER THE
EXPECTATION IS THAT MVFR CEILINGS WILL HANG AROUND BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE AND PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD AROUND
WITH THE CLOUD DECK AT 2500-3000 FEET.


OUTLOOK 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
12Z THU - 12Z FRI: MAINLY MVFR CIGS. CHANCE SHOWERS THROUGH 00Z
FRI.

12Z FRI - 00Z SUN: MAINLY VFR WITH CHANCE MVFR SHOWERS.

00Z SUN - 00Z MON: MVFR SHOWERS LIKELY. CHANCE IFR.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DEAL
NEAR TERM...DEAL
SHORT TERM...NEILES
LONG TERM...NEILES
AVIATION...DEAL/LAHIFF


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