Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 251946
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
346 PM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT INTO MUCH OF THE DAY ON SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING ON
SATURDAY BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL
NORMALS. A DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
TOWARD THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST OVER THE AREA RIGHT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...LOOK FOR PLENTY OF
CLOUDS...SHOWERS...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 346 PM EDT FRIDAY...SHALLOW CUMULUS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE
OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING AND WE WILL JUST BE LEFT WITH THE HIGH
LEVEL SMOKE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA TODAY FROM THE WILDFIRES
IN THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES OF CANADA. WOULD EXPECT SOME PATCHY
FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE FAVORED LOCATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S...WHICH IS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 346 PM EDT FRIDAY...FLOW ALOFT BEGINS TO BACK TO THE WEST ON
SATURDAY AND THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO ADVECT EAST INTO THE
REGION FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AROUND SEASONAL
NORMALS. FEEL POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION IS VERY SMALL DURING THE
DAY AND IT WILL TAKE BETTER FORCING THAT MOVES INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE PRECIPITATION FINALLY MOVES IN. A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EVENTUALLY GETS IN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND THUS LOOKING AT
SHOWERS TO BECOME LIKELY OVER THE AREA WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE. THE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME STORMS SHOULD LINGER
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY...SO WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION LIKELY
PRECIPITATION ALTHOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME BREAKS IN THE
PRECIPITATION. WITH THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY...HIGHS
WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH READINGS IN THE 70S. EVENTUALLY THE
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT MORE
PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN ON MONDAY AND ENHANCES
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 346 PM EDT FRIDAY...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST WITH DEEP TROUGHING ACROSS
THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS WITH A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
PLAINS/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN SHORTWAVE
ENERGY CONTINUES. THERE WILL BE PERIODIC OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS
WITH CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
HOWEVER AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING DIMINISHES DURING THE WEEK...ANY
SHOWERS SHOULD BECOME MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY IS STILL
SHAPING UP TO BE MONDAY AS STRONG SHORTWAVE ROUNDS BASE OF UPPER
TROUGH AND LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS FORECAST AREA. HAVE CONTINUED
WITH PREVIOUS THINKING OF LIKELY POPS...BUT RISK OF THUNDER MINIMAL
SO ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE INDICATED IN GRIDS. SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVE INTO MAINE MONDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHEST POPS
FOCUSED ACROSS VERMONT.

UPPER TROUGH THEN REMAINS IN PLACE TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DIFFICULT
TO TIME ANY SHORTWAVES THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TROUGH...AND
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. WITH COOL POOL ALOFT...BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS EACH DAY EXPECTED TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...WITH BEST CHANCE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE GONE WITH EITHER SLIGHT CHANCE OR
LOW CHANCE POPS MOST DAYS...AND MAINLY DRY FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

BELOW NORMAL MAX TEMPS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL KEEP HIGHS ON MONDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. 850 MB
TEMPS THEN PROGGED TO BE NO HIGHER THAN AROUND +10 C TUE/WED THEN
MODERATING SLIGHTLY LATER IN THE WEEK. WITH PARTIAL SUN...THIS
SUPPORTS HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S...MODERATING TO NEAR 80 BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH JUST SOME
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. SMOKE FROM
CANADIAN WILDFIRES HAS WORKED INTO FORECAST AREA DUE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. SMOKE LAYER MAINLY ALOFT...BUT SOME MINOR REDUCTION IN VSBY
TO AROUND 6 MILES POSSIBLE DUE TO THE SMOKE. EXPECT A PERIOD OF FOG
AT MPV AND POSSIBLY SLK BTWN 06Z-12Z SATURDAY. HAVE INDICATED
SEVERAL HOURS OF LIFR AT MPV AND ONLY TEMPO FOR MVFR AT SLK. REST
OF SITES WILL REMAIN VFR WITH JUST SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS. VFR
SATURDAY WITH SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS AND INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER.

WINDS WEST-SOUTHWEST 6-10 KTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT MSS. WINDS LIGHT SOUTHERLY TONIGHT THEN
SOUTHWEST NEAR 10 KTS SATURDAY.

OUTLOOK 18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

18Z SAT - 12Z MON...MOSTLY VFR. BRIEF PERIODS MVFR VISIBILITY IN
SCT SHOWERS/STORMS.

12Z MON - 00Z WED...PERIODS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS.

00Z WED ONWARD...TRENDING VFR. POSSIBLE IFR/LOWER VISIBILITY IN
OVERNIGHT FOG/MIST MPV AND SLK.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...EVENSON
NEAR TERM...EVENSON
SHORT TERM...EVENSON
LONG TERM...RJS
AVIATION...RJS






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