Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 010510
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
110 AM EDT WED JUN 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push across northern Vermont and New York with
little fanfare this evening. Seasonably warm temperatures and low
humidity levels will continue into Wednesday. The next chance for
precipitation isn`t until Thursday afternoon and evening as a cold
front sparks showers and possible thunderstorms. Temperatures
remain generally seasonable Friday into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 1016 PM EDT Tuesday...Weak cold front moving sewd across nrn
VT and nern NY this evening is associated with a band of mid-
level cloudiness, but the front will otherwise pass through the
area dry during the next 1-3 hours and usher in a cooler/drier
Canadian air mass. Should see skies trend mostly clear after
midnight. Winds are diminishing areawide at 02Z as boundary layer
stabilizes, and winds will eventually become light and variable
during the overnight period. Patchy radiational fog is likely in a
few of the valleys east of the Greens and within the valleys of
the nrn Adirondacks after midnight given favorable hydrolapse
profiles and light boundary- layer winds. 925 mb temps dip to
around +9 to +11C overnight. Stuck with a blend of MOS- based and
bias- corrected temps for mins this evening, ranging from the
upper 30s/low 40s in the Adirondacks up to the lower 50s in the
Champlain Valley.

Shaping up to be another outstanding day weatherwise on Wednesday
under ridge of high pressure and mid-tropospheric height rises.
Abundant sunshine to be the rule with any fair weather cumulus to
be closely tied to the terrain. Looking at highs once again in the
70s to lower 80s with comfortable humidity levels. Winds generally
light northerly and strongly governed by lake breeze and terrain
influences.

&&

.SHORT TERM /11 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 323 PM EDT Tuesday...We will continue to see pleasant
conditions Wednesday and most of Thursday as a ridge of high
pressure crests Wednesday evening over the North Country. That
high pressure will result in partly cloudy skies with still above
normal overnight lows on Wednesday evening in the low to mid 50s.

Most of Thursday will see dry weather with increasing cloud cover
as an upper level low and associated cold front advancing from the
Great Lakes. There is quite a bit discrepancy between the 12z
suite of guidance. Consensus has the front just east of northern
New York by early Thursday evening however speed and intensity
differ dramatically from there. The GFS presents a fast moving
progressive front that brings showers and thunderstorms but is
clear of the North Country before daybreak Friday. The rest of
guidance depicts a much slow solution. I feel the GFS has a pretty
good grasp of the structure of the front however I feel timing is
better with the GEM and ECMWF. So in collaboration with
neighboring offices I trending towards sensible weather from the
GFS with the ECMWF timing painting a picture of a slower moving
front the just enters northern New York Thursday evening and then
clears eastern Vermont by mid day Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 333 PM EDT Tuesday...Scattered showers should be spread
across the Champlain Valley and eastward early Friday but by mid
afternoon the main threat of precip should be over. Pleasant
weather then returns for the weekend as a ridge builds in aloft
and southerly flow returns. Expect mid to upper 70s Friday through
Sunday for max temps with low to mid 50s for overnight lows.

Coming out of the weekend there has been quite a bit of
consistency in both the deterministic guidance and the ensembles
with a long wave trough developing over the central CONUS and then
tracking east by Monday. The individual details differ about
evolution and track but the general idea is the there will be
showers through the beginning half of the work week as the
synoptic pattern is favourable for slow moving showers with a cut-
off low pressure system.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/...
Through 06z Thursday...VFR through the forecast period. Have
removed all mention of potential br/fg at KSLK/KMPV terminals
through 12Z given cloud cover and persistent winds to 15 kts just
off the deck keeping near-surface RH levels lower than earlier
indications. SCT/BKN VFR cigs in the 040-070 AGL range to affect
northern terminals through 12Z, then trending SKC with passing SCT
high clouds above 200 AGL thereafter. No precipitation is
expected. Winds light north to northwesterly 5 to 10 kts through
12Z, then trending variable less than 10 kts thereafter at most
terminals with flow being heavily governed by lake breezes and/or
terrain-driven influences.

Outlook 06z Thursday through Sunday...

06Z Thursday through 00Z Friday...VFR/high pressure.

00Z Friday through 00Z Saturday...VFR with scattered
showers/isolated thunder and brief MVFR visibilities with passing
frontal boundary.

00Z Saturday onward...VFR/high pressure.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Loconto
NEAR TERM...Banacos/Loconto
SHORT TERM...Deal
LONG TERM...Deal
AVIATION...JMG



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