Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 180909

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
409 AM EST Thu Jan 18 2018

The North Country will remain on the northern periphery of high
pressure today and Friday. Developing south to southwest winds
will bring about a gradual moderation in temperatures, but also
considerable low cloudiness associated with moisture from the
eastern Great Lakes. The clouds will be most prevalent across
the Adirondacks, St. Lawrence Valley, and far northern Vermont.
A few snow showers are possible tonight as a weak upper level
disturbance tracks from west to east across northern New York
into northern New England. Generally quiet weather is expected
over the weekend, and temperatures on Saturday are expected to
reach the lower 40s in many locations. A frontal system and
surface low pressure passing to our west Monday night into
Tuesday is expected to bring mixed wintry precipitation and a
period of plain rain to the region, before somewhat cooler
temperatures arrive for Wednesday.


As of 354 AM EST Thursday...Surface ridge in place from the
upper Ohio Valley newd into the srn tier of NY is resulting in
low-level SW flow from Lake Ontario, and variable amounts of
stratus clouds this morning across nrn NY and far nrn VT. This
general pattern will maintain mostly cloudy conditions through
the daylight hrs, with best potential for periods of sunshine
across central into s-central VT. May also see a few snow
showers across nrn NY associated with moisture from Lake
Ontario, and upslope conditions into St. Lawrence and Franklin
NY counties. Have indicated 20-30 PoPs to account for this
possibility across srn St. Lawrence into Franklin counties.
Otherwise, air mass will continue to slowly moderate today.
Readings generally in the upr single digits to mid teens early
this morning, except lower 20s in the St. Lawrence Valley with
more abundant cloud cover and stronger sw winds (10-15 mph)
keeping PBL mixed. Stayed close to MOS consensus on aftn highs
with readings generally 24-28F areawide.

Tonight: A quick-moving northern stream shortwave trough will
shift across nrn NY and nrn New England during the overnight
hours. Will see increased cloud cover areawide with a few snow
showers possible, especially across the nrn Adirondacks and nrn
Greens, where a coating to 0.5" snowfall is possible. Mentioned
just a slight chance of snow showers in valley locations, with
limited moisture availability with this shortwave trough.
Overnight lows generally in the low-mid teens, except around 20F
in the St. Lawrence Valley.

Friday: Quiet and a bit milder, with valley highs 31-34F in most
areas. Continued swly low-level flow regime, so will continue to
deal with considerable stratus associated with moisture from the
ern Great Lakes. Daytime sfc winds generally S-SW 5-10 mph.


As of 329 AM EST Thursday...Rather quiet for the short term with
an upper level trough passing to the north of the CWA Friday
night into Saturday. With that, just an increase in cloud cover
along the international border as well as a slight chance of a
snow shower, but not much else to speak of to start the weekend.
Winds still look to be gusty during the day as southerly flow
begins to pick up, but right now, it still looks to be sub-
advisory level. Temperatures will to trend upwards with warm air
advection with overnight lows in the 20s and upper teens in the
eastern VT counties. Saturday highs look to be in the low 40s
across the region.


As of 329 AM EST Thursday...The second half of the weekend
continues to look to be quiet with slightly low high
temperatures for Sunday as flow shifts to the northwest. Outside
of a shower or two in the higher terrain, the weekend looks to
be pretty uneventful. This precedes a rather active early part
of next week as fairly deep low will move across the Great Lakes
and into Ontario sometime Tuesday.

Models continue to disagree on timing, with the GFS still running
about 12 hours ahead of the ECMWF, but the overall idea is the
same, a secondary surface low develops along a cold front and
rides up over our region on Tuesday into Tuesday evening. With
this secondary low, that means the warmer air at lower levels
will have a harder time of really coming in force and scouring
out the low level cold air. Both the GFS and ECMWF suggest a
widespread mixed precipitation event, with a general light snow
to start late on Monday, a good amount of sleet and perhaps
areas of freezing rain in the middle, and ending as snow later
Tuesday or Tuesday night. Have continued as the previous shift
did and used a mix of the warmer GFS and colder ECMWF to help
determine precipitation type. Still, this far out locking into
particular location for sleet/freezing rain is a bit premature
as the forecast will continue to change until we get closer to
the event. Still, on the bright side, with this looking to be
much cooler than last week`s event, hydro looks to be less of a
concern but still bears monitoring.

Beyond this system, Wednesday and beyond look rather quiet,
though a snow shower or two are not out of the question. Look
for highs in the long term in the 30s with Tuesday touching the
lower 40s in the valleys and overnight lows in the 20s to teens.


Through 12Z Friday...Latest IR satellite imagery shows region of
stratus clouds extending from Lake Ontario ewd across much of
nrn NY and far nrn VT. Should see persistent MVFR ceilings at
MSS/SLK in association with expected low cloud trends, and may
see occasionally lower (IFR) conditions at SLK with wswly
upslope flow conditions. Other TAF locations from the Champlain
Valley ewd should generally remain VFR through the period, with
occasional ceilings 3.5-5kft. Winds generally expected S-SW
throughout the TAF period at 5-10kts. Some valley channeled flow
vcnty of KMSS will yield slightly higher wind speeds, generally
10-15kts. A modest northern stream shortwave trough may bring a
few passing snow showers Thursday night. Coverage generally
expected to be limited, and have only carried VCSH group at KSLK
after 02Z for now.


Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight
chance SHSN.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA,
Slight chance SHSN.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN, Chance




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