Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 281440
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
1040 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY BRINGING A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS VERMONT. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA
ON SATURDAY. THIS COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1035 AM EDT THURSDAY...UPDATED FORECAST THIS MORNING TO
REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS. CURRENTLY SOME
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT...WITH MORE
SCATTERED SHOWERS BEHIND THAT IN THE ADIRONDACKS AHEAD OF ACTUAL
COLD FRONT. STILL FEEL THAT SEVERE RISK FOR TODAY IS
MARGINAL...THOUGH HAVE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED IN THE
FORECAST ACROSS EASTERN VERMONT. CURRENTLY NOTING SOME LIGHTNING
STRIKES IN QUEBEC...BUT NONE CLOSER THAN THAT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
FOLLOWS.

COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP SHOWING SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CHAMPLAIN VALLEY WITH MORE SHOWER ACTIVITY SCATTERED OVER NORTHERN
NEW YORK AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE AT
THIS TIME...SO NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM 426 AM EDT THURSDAY...COMPOSITE RADAR
LOOP SHOWING SOME RAIN SHOWERS OVER EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO AND
WESTERN NEW YORK STATE AT THIS TIME MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY AND THE ADIRONDACKS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
COLD FRONT TO SWING THROUGH THE REGION TODAY WITH DRIER AIR IN THE
FORM OF LOWER DEW POINTS ARRIVING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
BTV 4KM MODEL SHOWING SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
WESTERN SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. BTV 4KM MODEL HAS THESE STORMS EAST OF THE
CONNECTICUT VALLEY BY 21Z TODAY. SPC HAS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
VERMONT IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
HOWEVER...NOT BUYING INTO THIS AS CLOUD COVER MOVING IN AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY LIMIT AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION
TODAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 70S TODAY...SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WILL LIKELY BE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 426 AM EDT THURSDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. HAVE GONE A
BIT WARMER THAN MOS GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY UNDER
FULL SUNSHINE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA
ON SATURDAY. GFS MODEL CONTINUE TO BE FASTER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE
THAN THE SLOWER ECMWF MODEL WITH THIS COLD FRONT. THUS...SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES AS TO WHEN PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT
THIS TIME MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT THURSDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS
COUPLE OF FORECASTS FOR DAYS 4 THRU 7. STILL ANTICIPATING A
SURFACE COLD FRONT TO PRODUCE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO
AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND TIMING OF SFC FEATURE...ALONG WITH
POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM MID/UPPER LVL CLOUDS ON SFC HEATING. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION LIKELY TO CAT POPS ON SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
SOME POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...DEPENDING UPON AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY PRESENT WHEN FROPA OCCURS. AT THIS TIME...BEST
INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL NY INTO
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WITH CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000 AND
2000 J/KG...WHILE BEST 0 TO 6 KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN DRIER AND COOLER WEATHER FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK. SOME PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE IN THE COLDER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS
ON MONDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY/MONDAY
WITH READINGS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70...BUT WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS BY WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 30S COLDER VALLEYS
ON MONDAY MORNING TO M/U 40S CHAMPLAIN/SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEYS.
LOWS WARM BACK INTO THE 40S AND 50S BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
MORNING...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VIS ASSOCIATED WITH
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE DACKS INTO THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY.
EXPECTING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY...WITH BEST CHANCE OF SEEING BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AT RUT/MPV/BTV. A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
NEAR MPV/RUT WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTING.
OTHERWISE...BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS WILL SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST BEHIND BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON AND BECOME LIGHT
TOWARD SUNSET.PATCHY FOG/BR WILL BE POSSIBLE AT MPV/SLK AND MAYBE
RUTLAND...DEPENDING UPON MEASURED RAINFALL TODAY.

OUTLOOK 12Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SFC HIGH PRES WITH VFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER
FRONT WITH MORE STORMS OCCUR ON SAT AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY
EVENING. SOME PATCHY FOG/BR IS POSSIBLE AT MPV/SLK AND RUTLAND ON
SATURDAY MORNING. THESE STORMS WILL CONTAIN LOCALIZED GUSTY
WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY DOWN POURS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. LOOK FOR
BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS TO DEVELOP AHEAD
OF APPROACHING SFC BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY. A WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ON SUNDAY. MONDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...WGH
NEAR TERM...WGH/NEILES
SHORT TERM...WGH
LONG TERM...TABER
AVIATION...TABER


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