Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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000
FXUS61 KBTV 220730
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
330 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WHICH BROUGHT SHOWERS TO THE REGION YESTERDAY
AND THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA TODAY WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS TAPERING OFF. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND WILL DOMINATE THE NORTH COUNTRY`S WEATHER
FOR THE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK...THEN WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...STILL DEALING WITH SOME SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS AND LIKELY SOME AREAS OF DRIZZLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS SHIFTING
THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING. FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE BTV
CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIP TAPERING OFF AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW AND LINGERING POST-FRONTAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...AND
WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER. EXPECT MORNING TEMPS RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE TO BE RUNNING IN
THE 40`S ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK...AND 50`S ACROSS
VERMONT...AND WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE QUITE BRISK...GUSTING TO 25 MPH AT TIMES WHICH
WILL MAKE IT FEEL LIKE FALL FOR SURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM EDT MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT WILL MARK THE BEGINNING OF
AN EXTREMELY QUIET AND PLEASANT STRETCH OF FALL WEATHER ACROSS THE
NORTH COUNTRY. AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY SLOWLY BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH GENERALLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOWS
WILL RUN A BIT BELOW NORMAL IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S...BUT HIGHS
WILL BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL RANGING THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 223 AM EDT MONDAY...THE 00Z ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
THE IDEA OF AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER...WITH
A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE IN CONTROL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NERN
CONUS. LOOK FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE PERIOD AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
(8-10 DEG ABOVE NORMAL)...AND POSSIBLY IN THE UPPER 70S FOR
SATURDAY. AIR MASS WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY...WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE MID 40S TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY. ANTICIPATE
SOME PATCHY NOCTURAL FOG IN THE FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN VERMONT EACH NIGHT. POPS NIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...IFR CEILINGS AT SLK/MSS ASSOCIATED WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY THIS MORNING. AS FRONT PROGRESSES EWD...ANTICIPATE
CEILINGS WILL FALL INTO THE 2-3 KFT RANGE (MVFR) AT THE REMAINING
TAF SITES BETWEEN 08-10Z...AND PERSIST MVFR THROUGH THE REST OF
THE MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY GOING BACK TO VFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS SCATTERED ASSOCIATED WITH THE
BOUNDARY...AND CARRIED VCSH/-SHRA FOR NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION AT THE TAF SITES DURING
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SW TO W-NW DURING THE
MID-MORNING...WITH WINDS 10-12 KTS AND GUSTS TO 20 KTS.

OUTLOOK 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DRY WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE. GENERALLY VFR...EXCEPT LIFR/VLIFR NOCTURNAL FOG
POSSIBLE SLK/MPV 06-12Z EACH MORNING TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAHIFF
NEAR TERM...LAHIFF
SHORT TERM...LAHIFF
LONG TERM...BANACOS
AVIATION...BANACOS








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