Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT

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FXUS61 KBTV 202336
AFDBTV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
736 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN
GOING INTO MONDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL THEN TRAVERSE THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO END
OFF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 729 PM EDT SUNDAY...ERLY AFTN PATCHES OF HI/MID CLDS WAS
DISSIPATING AND SHIFTING S. HOWEVER...LARGER VEIL ASSOC WITH NXT
SYSTEM ALRDY SHIFTING S AND E FROM ONTARIO/QUEBEC. THIS WILL KEEP
TMPS NOT AS COLD DESPITE VRY DRY AIR WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 10S
ACRS VT BUT MORE MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S ACRS ST LWRNC VLY.
RIGHT NOW...NO CHGS TO ONGOING FCST.


324 PM DISCUSSION...A GREAT AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY
WILL TRANSLATE INTO A GREAT EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS WELL WITH
HIGH PRESSURE INTACT OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY...WITH MORE OF A SHIFT OFF THE EAST COAST BY TOMORROW
MORNING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNING REMAINS NORTH OF THE
AREA ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC/ ONTARIO AND WILL NOT AFFECT THE CWA
OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH A CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHT WITH THIN VEIL OF HIGH CLOUD TO MOVE THROUGH. WIND
REGIME FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WILL STAY SSW AROUND 5-15 MPH.
BIGGEST DROP IN TEMPS FOR TONIGHT WILL OCCUR BY SUNSET/EARLY
EVENING. LARGE T/TD SPREAD OVER THE AREA ATTM WILL SHRINK AFTER
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. MID 20S TO LOW 30S IN EASTERN VERMONT/
DACKS...AND MID TO UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE WILL BE THE RANGE OF LOWS
FOR THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 324 PM EDT SUNDAY...GOING INTO MONDAY MORNING...SURFACE RIDGE
OFF THE EAST COAST AND REMAINING THROUGH THE DAY. BY MONDAY
NIGHT...SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH AND
WEST. THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
CWA OVERNIGHT MONDAY...SPREADING PRECIP INTO THE REST OF THE AREA
BY TUESDAY MORNING. FROPA OCCURS DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...WITH A
TAPERING OF MOST PRECIPITATION FROM WEST TO EAST TUESDAY NIGHT.

CLOUD COVER...MOST OF THE DAY MONDAY WILL HAVE AREA MOSTLY SUNNY
WITH TRANSITION TO INCREASING CLOUDS BY LATE IN THE DAY AS LEADING
EDGE OF FRONTAL CLOUDS REACH THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY...AND BLANKETING
THE ENTIRE REGION BY 12Z TUESDAY. WITH RAIN THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY...CLOUDY SKIES WILL PERSIST WITH SOME SLOW CLEARING IN
VALLEY LOCALES AS WINDS SHIFT TO MORE NORTHERLY WITH FROPA...PUTTING
FOCUS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN.

TEMPS...ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR ENTIRE AREA MONDAY AHEAD
OF FRONT...WITH EASTERN CWA SEEING SITUATION OF EARLY HIGHS WITH
FROPA OCCURRING. OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH
STRONG SSW GRADIENT DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER. OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY WILL HAVE AREA SEEING AT OR BELOW NOUNAL TEMPS WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF CAA ON NORTHERLY FETCH. CLOUD COVER WILL BE FACTOR IN
OVERNGT LOWS TUESDAY. OVERALL HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S ON MONDAY
WITH 50S IN N NY/60S IN VT FOR TUESDAY WITH DIFFERENCE BEING FRONT
PLACEMENT. OVERNGT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE 30S TO L40S...COLDEST IN
HIR TRRN TUESDAY NIGHT.

WINDS...FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WIND REGIME WILL REMAIN SSW WITH
GRADIENT TIGHTEN AS FRONT APPROACHES. LOOKING FOR 5-15 MPH WITH
AREAS 10-20 MPH WITH FRONT. WITH FROPA TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AS SFC
LOW PASSES OVER NORTHERN ZONES...SOUTHERLY GRADIENT SHIFTS TO MORE
NORTHERLY REMAINING IN THE 10-20 MPH RANGE UNTIL UPPER SUPPORT
PASSES AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST.

PRECIP...MAIN P-TYPE WITH FROPA WILL FALL AS RAINSHOWERS...WITH SOME
RW/SW MIX OVER HIGHER TERRAIN GOING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR
BLEEDS INTO REGION. SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUM IS POSSIBLE IN THESE
SPOTS. OVERALL QPF FOR THE FRONT WILL RANGE FROM 0.30" TO 0.60".

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 339 PM EDT SUNDAY...ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY...SO WILL KEEP IN A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD SLOWLY
EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE OVER THE NORTH COUNTRY THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY WITH FAIR AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS SHOWING A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT
LAKES ON FRIDAY...SO WILL GO WITH SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR
SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES ON
FRIDAY WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST-SOUTHEAST FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY ...SO WILL KEEP IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER VERMONT AND NORTHERN NEW
YORK. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW BUT
NOTHING WORSE THAN BKN080. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY STEADY OR INCREASE
SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AHEAD OF
FRONT. GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF 08-12 KTS FROM THE SOUTH. COULD
GET GUSTY TOMORROW AFTER SUNRISE ONCE MIXING STARTS TO OCCUR.

OUTLOOK 00Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

00Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE.

12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE
INTO THE REGION FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING RAIN SHOWERS AND
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION.

00Z THURSDAY THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.

12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JN
NEAR TERM...JN/SLW
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...WGH
AVIATION...WGH/NF






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