Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 291902
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
302 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN NEW YORK EARLY THURSDAY MORNING
WHILE BRINGING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS... WHICH
WILL BECOME INCREASING NUMEROUS INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEW YORK BY MID
MORNING. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND
UPCOMING WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE A FEW CHANCES FOR SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND... BUT MUCH OF THE WEEKEND
WILL BE SEASONABLE AND PLEASANT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WRAPPED UP UPPER-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO PINWHEEL TOWARD THE HUDSON
BAY THIS EVENING. THIS LOW IS DRAGGING A NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED COLD
FRONT ACROSS MICHIGAN EARLY THIS EVENING... WHICH WILL WILL REACH
WESTERN NEW YORK BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON THURSDAY. THE
OCCLUDED NATURE OF THIS UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
FORCING HAS ALLOWED FOR WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. DIURNALLY ENHANCED CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT TODAY
WILL DIMINISH AS IT CROSSES SOUTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL LEAVE THE LINE MORE BROKEN AND SHOWERY AS IT APPROACHES
WESTERN NEW YORK BY THE EARLY MORNING. HAVE ADVERTISED HIGH-CHANCE
POPS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK DUE TO THE POOR DIURNAL TIMING OF
THE FRONT. AS THE FRONT MARCHES EASTWARD TOWARD CENTRAL NEW YORK AND
THE NORTH COUNTRY... INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT... ALLOWING THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS. THUS HAVE POPS INCREASING TO LIKELY AS THE LINE MOVES
EASTWARD THROUGH MID MORNING.

CLEARING WILL OCCUR FAIRLY QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT AS SYNOPTIC SUBSIDENCE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION HELP TO MIX DOWN
DRIER AIR AND STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. EXPECT SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY... TO 15 TO 20
MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH MAINLY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER... LAKE
PLAINS AND UP THE SAINT LAWRENCE RIVER. TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A
STEP DOWN TO MORE SEASONABLE VALUES... IN THE LOWER 80S WITH DEW
POINTS DROPPING INTO THE 50S BY THE AFTERNOON MAKING FOR A LESS
HUMID DAY. IN SUMMARY... MOST LOCATIONS MAY NEED AN UMBRELLA FOR THE
MORNING COMMUTE... BUT BY THE AFTERNOON MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT BROUGHT SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL PARK ITSELF OVER HUDSON BAY BEGINNING FRIDAY
AND REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  THE RESULT WILL BE SEVERAL NW-SE
ORIENTED JET STREAKS POINTING AT WESTERN NY AND MOVING OFF TO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND RESULTANT
SURFACE BOUNDARIES PASSING THROUGH THE REGION.  NONE OF THE FRONTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE STRONG IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURE VARIATION...BUT
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL FORCING TOGETHER WITH LAKE BREEZE
ENHANCEMENT FOR AT LEAST SCATTERED CONVECTION.  THE BEST CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY EVENING
WITH A PEAK IN CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL DURING EACH AFTERNOON WITH
ABUNDANT MIXING AND INSTABILITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOOKING AT THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO BECOME FIRMLY RE-ESTABLISHED
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NORTHEAST. THIS
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SEASONABLY MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO AROUND 80 IN MOST AREAS WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER AND THE TUG HILL
PLATEAU TO THE LOWER 60S NEAR THE LAKES. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH WILL BRING ALTERNATING
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH FAIR WEATHER IN BETWEEN
SHORTWAVES...HOWEVER TIMING THESE FEATURES THIS FAR OUT IS
UNREALISTIC WITH MODELS DISPLAYING DISAGREEMENTS ON THE SPECIFIC
TIMING. THUS WILL STICK WITH GENERIC BROADBRUSH CHANCE POPS FOR
THE TIME BEING. LOOKING FARTHER OUT...THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO STICK
AROUND THROUGH THE COMING WEEK AS THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL ONLY
SLOWLY DRIFT EAST FROM HUDSON BAY ACROSS QUEBEC THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW YORK STATE SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST TO
THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WESTERN NEW YORK VERY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING... AND WILL SLIDE EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL NEW YORK
BY MID TO LATE MORNING. THE FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS / BECOMING NUMEROUS AS IT MOVES INTO
CENTRAL NEW YORK/ THAT COULD PRODUCE BRIEF/LOCALIZED REDUCTIONS IN
CIG/VSBY...WITH CONDITIONS OTHERWISE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT... CLEARING SKIES WILL RESULT IN VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY THURSDAY... WITH
GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR.
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND WAVES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT THIS EVENING. THEN A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING... WITH LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS
AND WAVES POSSIBLE IN/NEAR ANY CONVECTION...AND RELATIVELY BENIGN
CONDITIONS PERSISTING ELSEWHERE.

FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...A STIFF WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND INTO THE SAINT
LAWRENCE RIVER ON THURSDAY... WHEN WINDS AND WAVES WILL REACH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. THUS HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WITH THIS UPDATE.

AFTER THAT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS WILL GRADUALLY RIDGE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER LAKES
DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...RESULTING IN A MODEST
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW THAT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 2 AM EDT FRIDAY
         FOR LEZ040-041.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 11 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR
         LEZ020.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 11 PM EDT THURSDAY
         FOR LOZ045.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 11 PM EDT THURSDAY
         FOR SLZ022.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH
NEAR TERM...CHURCH
SHORT TERM...ZAFF
LONG TERM...ZAFF
AVIATION...CHURCH
MARINE...CHURCH



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