Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 030048
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
848 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS EVENING AS A COLD
FRONT EXITS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION WILL
BRING FAIR WEATHER WITH NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY. AS THE
HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST COAST LATER THIS WEEK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
USHER IN A RETURN OF HOT WEATHER. ANOTHER...STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH MUCH
COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM EASTERN ONTARIO DOWN ACROSS FAR
WESTERN NEW YORK CAN BE CLEARLY DISCERNED ON IR SATELLITE IMAGERY
THIS EVENING. THE BULK OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA AT THIS
TIME...THOUGH SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.
EXTENSIVE CLEARING CAN BE SEEN BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN
ONTARIO AND MICHIGAN BACK INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...AND THIS
AREA OF CLEARING SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA...LEADING TO
STARLIT SKIES...AT LEAST FOR A TIME. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT HOWEVER
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS LATER
TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY
WHERE SIGNIFICANT RAIN FELL TODAY. IT WILL BE A RACE BETWEEN THE
POST-FRONTAL COOLING LATER THIS EVENING AND ADVECTION OF DRY AIR
FROM THE WEST IN DETERMINING HOW MUCH LOW CLOUD WE SEE OVERNIGHT.
FOR NOW WILL STICK WITH CONTINUITY IN THE FORECAST AND KEEP THE
CLOUD COVER PRIMARILY ACROSS THE USUAL CLOUD-PRONE AREAS. THE
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL HELP KEEP LOWS PROPPED UP IN THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS MOST AREAS.

ON WEDNESDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND NORTH FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY ACROSS NEW YORK WITH A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED WITH MORNING CLOUDS SLOWLY BREAKING UP AND LIFTING FOR SOME
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE. TEMPS WILL RISE INTO THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES WILL
BE FIRMLY IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH FAIR
WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES.

LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. FOR OUR REGION...THIS IS MOST APPARENT IN TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WHERE MODEL CONSENSUS INCREASES 850MB TEMPERATURES TO +18C BY 00Z
FRIDAY. THERE MAY SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS MID-LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION...BUT EXPECT MOST OF THE DAY TO BE SUNNY WHICH WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

SSW WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND ALSO
DOWNSLOPE A BIT NORTH OF I-90. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES WILL NOT
DROP VERY MUCH OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
AND UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOWER 70S NEAR THE LAKESHORES. ANY SHOWERS
SHOULD HOLD OFF...WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL WELL TO OUR NORTHWEST.

THINGS GET A BIT MORE INTERESTING ON FRIDAY...WITH A VIGOROUS
SHORTWAVE FORECAST TO LIFT TOWARD HUDSON BAY WHILE AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW TAKES A SIMILAR TRACK AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT TOWARD OUR
REGION. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON AND AHEAD OF THE SHOWERS TEMPERATURES SHOULD EASILY CLIMB
WELL INTO THE 80S. THERE WILL BE A GUSTY SOUTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT TEMPERATURES DOWNWIND OF LAKE ERIE ACROSS
THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. BUT THIS FLOW DOWNSLOPES EAST OF
ROCHESTER...WHERE HIGHS SHOULD BE AROUND 90.

EXPECT A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OUT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS MAY
INITIALLY STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT ACROSS THE BRISK SOUTHWEST FLOW UP THE
LAKES...BUT SHOULD EVENTUALLY PUSH INTO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER. THE
12Z NAM APPEARS TOO MOIST WITH ITS SURFACE DEW POINTS...WITH MOST
OTHER GUIDANCE FORECASTING DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S WITH ML CAPES
BUILDING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. EVEN SO THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR SOME
STORMS TO DEVELOP INLAND OF THE LAKES LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THE COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO THE
FRONT...AN UPPER TROUGH JUST BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER
OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH THE INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE FRONT MAY BE BROKEN...TRAILING SHOWERS AND
INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN TIMING STILL SUPPORTS LOW LIKELY POPS FOR
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF OUR REGION...USHERING IN COOLER AIR
FOR THE WEEKEND. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID-WESTERN STATES
WILL EXPAND EASTWARD AND INTO OUR REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. SOME
GUIDANCE (NOTABLY THE GGEM) STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER SATURDAY...WHILE MOST OTHER GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A MORE DECISIVE
PASSAGE. GIVEN THE TIMEFRAME...CAN STILL SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
LINGERING THROUGH SATURDAY. AFTER THIS...HIGH PRESSURE GAINS CONTROL
AND SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. TEMPERATURES ALOFT APPEAR COOL ENOUGH
FOR LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS TO LINGER SOUTHEAST OF THE LAKES...WHICH
SHOULD AT LEAST PARTIALLY LIMIT SUNSHINE. THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUN
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR ACROSS THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING AS A LARGE SWATH OF PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS ANS
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE EAST. THE COLD FRONT IS
PRESENTLY ON OUR DOORSTEP AND WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
WHILE DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION SHOULD ULTIMATELY LEAD TO
CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS MANY AREAS...LINGERING MOISTURE FROM
HEAVIER RAINS EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON AND WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW MAY
LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
NORTH COUNTRY AFTER 03-06Z...CREATING A STRONG POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LIFR CONDITIONS AT KJHW.

ANY LINGERING LOW CLOUD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTH COUNTRY
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 15Z AS HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVE INTO THE
REGION. THE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...VFR.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH
ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR/IFR...OTHERWISE VFR.
SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF MVFR/IFR ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER IN THE MORNING
OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WESTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A LIGHT TO MODERATE CHOP ON THE
EASTERN ENDS OF THE LAKES THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATER
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WITH
GENERALLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PERSISTING ON THE LAKES THROUGH
THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH
MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES...HOWEVER CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...SMITH/WOOD
SHORT TERM...APFFEL
LONG TERM...APFFEL
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD






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