Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KBUF 281739
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
139 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE EAST TO ATLANTIC
COAST. WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
MOVE EAST AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE
CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS BEFORE SUMMER LIKE WARMTH RETURNS FOR
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE LOWER LAKES AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST TO THE COAST. THIS COOL
UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A FAIR AMOUNT OF DIURNAL
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS
EVENING WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES DEVELOPING TONIGHT.

SOME HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD THE WEST OVERNIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM HOWEVER THIS WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO
INHIBIT THE FORMATION OF ANOTHER ROUND OF VALLEY FOG IN THE SOUTHERN
TIER.

MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL THICKEN ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY
HOWEVER EXPECT ANY CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO HOLD OFF THROUGHOUT THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURE WISE WE LOOK TO SEE A RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER TO THE MID 50S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL WARM
TO WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF 80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEATHER FOR THIS WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK
WILL BE DOMINATED BY TWO FEATURES...THE SUB-TROPICAL HIGH THAT WILL
BE ANCHORED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY
ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S...AND A WEAKENING SHORTWAVE
THAT WILL BE DRIFTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
BROAD ISENTROPIC UPLIFT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES BETWEEN THE
HIGH AND THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL GENERATE WIDESPREAD
MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER SATURDAY INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF
SUNDAY AND MAY SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR WESTERN NEW YORK
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE EDGES CLOSER TO THE
AREA...THOUGH WEAK FORCING AND A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD LIMIT
COVERAGE. IT IS ALSO WORTH NOTING THAT EVEN THIS LIMITED ACTIVITY
MAY HOLD OFF THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND SHOULD THE SHORTWAVE
HOLD OFF LONGER THAN CURRENTLY DEPICTED IN THE BLEND BETWEEN THE
ECMWF AND GFS OUTPUT AND HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND TOWARDS THE SLOWER
ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH SEEMS MORE REASONABLE GIVEN THE FACT THAT THE
SHORTWAVE WILL BE ENCOUNTERING AFOREMENTIONED RIDGING AFFECTING THE
EAST COAST.

GIVEN ABOVE DISCUSSION...HAVE LEFT IN LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS WESTERN
NEW YORK FOR MONDAY...ALLOWING FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION SHOULD THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION VERIFY.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL REFLECT THE BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WITH WARMER ADVECTING INTO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY
THE PRESENCE OF THE DECAYING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SHOULD KEEP
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S THROUGH THE PERIOD. INCREASING MOISTURE
RETURN ACROSS THE REGION WILL PUSH DEWPOINTS BACK INTO THE 60S AND
YIELD WARMER AND MUGGIER NIGHTS THAN WE HAVE EXPERIENCED OF LATE
WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...WARMEST NEAR THE LAKES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN ITS HOLD EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
THROUGH THE COMING WEEK PROMOTING A LARGELY DRY AND INCREASINGLY
WARM PERIOD FOR WESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID-80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. DAYTIME CU WILL
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG AGAIN DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER TONIGHT.  OVERNIGHT...SOME HIGH CIRRUS WILL
BEGIN OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE WEST. MID TO HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BECOME OVERCAST ON SATURDAY WITH ANY CHANCE FOR PCPN
HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATER SATURDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS / ASSOCIATED BRIEF MVFR.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT WINDS AND MINIMAL WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE RULE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LEVAN
NEAR TERM...LEVAN
SHORT TERM...WOOD
LONG TERM...WOOD
AVIATION...LEVAN
MARINE...LEVAN


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.