Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 012351
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
551 PM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF
OUR CWA UNDER A NW FLOW ALOFT AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS REMAINS TO
OUR WEST. SO FAR...MOST OF THE STORMS HAVE PULSED UP AND DOWN WITH
LIKELY LITTLE IMPACT. HOWEVER...ENOUGH SHEAR IN THE LOWER LEVELS
FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 40-45 MPH
AND HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS. RADAR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES
LIKELY OVERDONE DUE TO HAIL CONTAMINATION. NONETHELESS...EXPECT
SOME GOOD DOWNPOURS FROM SOME STORMS AND WILL BE MONITORING THE
SITUATION CLOSELY THROUGH THIS EVENING.

STORMS SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE AFTER SUNSET...THOUGH A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STILL POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA.

EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON
SATURDAY WILL MOSTLY OCCUR ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM VAIL TO
MONTICELLO... AS DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO PUSH IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST. SO...EXPECT MAX TEMPERATURES A LITTLE HIGHER THAN TODAY
MAINLY NORTH OF THAT LINE.

THEN SATURDAY NIGHT EXPECT CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE SURGE TO BEGIN GRADUALLY SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO OUR
CWA...WITH THE DEEP MOISTURE BEGINNING TO CROSS INTO OUR CWA LATE
IN THE NIGHT WHICH IS REFLECTED BY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN POPS
PRIOR TO SUNRISE ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014

...THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN INCREASES SUNDAY...

MOISTURE WILL START TO SURGE NORTHWARD SUNDAY PUSHING INTO
SOUTHEASTERN UTAH SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO THROUGH THE DAY. MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE NORTH AND INTO THE WEST CENTRAL COLORADO.
INCREASED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE BACKING OFF ON THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES SLIGHTLY...KEPT THE TREND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING SUNDAY AND LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES AROUND THE RIDGE AND WILL HELP
WITH THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. KEPT THE TREND OF BEST COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY IN THE AFTERNOONS INTO THE LATE EVENINGS FOR EACH OF
THOSE DAYS.

THE TREND DECREASES SLIGHTLY BY MID WEEK AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS AND
THE MOISTURE SHIFTS SOUTHWARD. ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO HELP
FORM STORMS ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. A TROUGH MOVES IN
FROM THE WEST HELPING TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND PUSH IT TO THE
EAST. THE TROUGH STARTS TO ENTER THE REGION LATE THURSDAY AND
EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 551 PM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014

SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA THIS EVENING WILL BECOME ISOLATED AFTER 06Z.
LITTLE IF ANY CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 12Z-18Z.
AFTER 18Z...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED OVER SW
COLORADO. ONLY ISOLATED STORMS NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN IS EXPECTED
ACROSS NW COLORADO AND ERN UTAH. WITH ANY STORMS...HEAVY RAIN AND
LOWER CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE THAT PARTIALLY OBSCURE MOUNTAIN TOPS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRP
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...PF


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