Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 302140 AAA
AFDJKL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
540 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 540 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016

Freshened up the POPs through early this evening to match better
with the radar trends. Isolated to scattered convection has fired
up once, mainly confined to the Highway 80 and Hal Rogers Parkway
corridors. Expect a gradual diminishment towards dusk, similar to
the previous couple of evenings.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 330 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016

Showers and storms have formed along the Virginia and Tennessee
borders this afternoon in response to an upper level low moving
into the Carolinas and spreading moisture into the area. These
showers and storms are capable of producing breif heavy rainfall
and some lightning but should dissipate shortly after sunset.
Tonight, the upper level ridge will finally start to break down as
a trough digs southward towards the Great Lakes. As such, heights
will lower throughout the day on Wednesday into Thursday morning
as the trough axis pushes towards Kentucky.

At the surface, we will see a gradual increase in cloud cover and
shower chances as a cold front makes its way towards Kentucky from
the northwest tomorrow afternoon. The best chance for showers and
storms will be constrained to the Bluegrass region tomorrow
afternoon, as well as along the Virginia border, with the
strongest energy staying to our north and west. The front is
progged to weaken and drop through the area tomorrow night into
Thursday morning, with no real wind shift noted in the models.
Given the unfavorable timing of the fropa, thunderstorm chances
should be limited.

Temperatures will remain mild during the overnight periods with
lows in the upper 60s and low 70s. Tomorrows high will be
unseasonably warm with highs potentially reaching 90 degrees in
spots, depending on cloud cover.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016

The bulk of the extended period looks to be dry and much cooler
than the weather we have been experiencing the past couple of
weeks. A weak cold front will be exiting the area on Thursday. The
limited lift and moisture associated with the front should be just
enough to spark scattered showers and storms across eastern
Kentucky. The precipitation should be exiting the area by late
Thursday afternoon, with the area being rain free by 0Z Friday. A
much cooler and drier air mass will then spill into the region
behind the departed front. We should then see by far the most
pleasant weather of the entire summer Thursday and Friday, with
highs on each day only topping out in the upper 70s and lower 80s
with low humidity. A gradual warming trend should then begin over
the weekend, as mostly clear skies and light winds allow strong
surface heating to occur. We should see near normal temperatures
from Saturday onward, with daily maxes in the 80s on tap.
Overnight lows Thursday night and Friday night are expected to
fall into the upper 50s for most locations. The rest of the week
should see lows in the low to mid 60s across the area. The first
day of meteorological fall, September 1st, should truly feel like
fall.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 147 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016

Scattered diurnal CU will continue to develop throughout the
afternoon, with some isolated convection possible near the VA
border. But this should pose little threat to any of the TAF
sites. Tonight, fog could be a concern once again. However, this
will depend on if temperatures can reach the crossover
temperatures, and if any TAF sites see rain. Right now, SJS is the
only site that may see rain this afternoon so decided to put IFR
VIS, with MVFR at LOZ and SME, in the forecast late tonight. Winds
will remain light, generally from the N to NE and less than 5 mph.

&&

.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JVM



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