Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 230248
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1048 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1048 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

JUST SENT OUT ANOTHER FORECAST UPDATE. THE FORECAST WERE ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY TO MIRROR CURRENT SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF AS THE NIGHT
WEARS ON. THERE ARE STILL FLOODING ISSUES ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE AREA. AS A RESULT...THERE ARE STILL A NUMBER OF FLOOD WARNINGS
AND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 934 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

JUST SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO THE ZONE FORECAST. THE FORECAST GRIDS
HAVE BEEN MODIFIED EXTENSIVELY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS
THAT HAVE BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. THE PRIMARY AREAS OF CONCERN
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WILL BE PIKE...JOHNSON...AND FLOYD
COUNTIES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONTINUING TO DECREASE IN
COVERAGE ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT. NUMEROUS REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING HAVE BEEN RECEIVED OUT
OF FLOYD...ESTILL...AND PIKE COUNTY SO FAR THIS EVENING. MANY REPORTS
WILL LIKELY BE RECEIVED AS OUR 24 HOUR WARNING POINTS ARE ABLE TO
RELAY THEM TO US. THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES...SKY
COVER...QPF...AND WEATHER TYPE GRIDS HAVE ALL BEEN UPDATED TO BETTER
REFLECT REAL TIME WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER
FORECAST UPDATE WILL BE SENT OUT BEFORE THE END OF THE SHIFT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST GRIDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD TO BETTER REPRESENT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND THE
LATEST MODEL DATA. THE CHANGES WERE MADE TO PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES...PRECIP AMOUNTS...AND WEATHER TYPE GRIDS. THESE
CHANGES WERE MOSTLY COSMETIC AND SHOULD NOT CAUSE CHANGES TO THE ZONE
FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT THAT WOULD WARRANT ISSUING A NEW FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

18Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A CONVECTIVELY WASHED OUT BOUNDARY JUST NORTH
OF THE OHIO RIVER. THIS LEADS BACK WEST TO A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. MEANWHILE...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
IS FOUND THROUGH THE DEEP SOUTH. ALOFT...A FAIRLY STRONG RIDGE OF
HIGH HEIGHTS STRETCHES FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WHILE TROUGHING
IS FOUND OVER NEW ENGLAND. BETWEEN THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES...A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES ARE PASSING BY TO THE NORTHEAST. THE LEADING ONE
OF THESE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR BETTER DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION OVER FAR
EASTERN KENTUCKY AND WESTERN WEST VIRGINIA. ELSEWHERE...TO THE WEST
OF THIS AREA...A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE TAKING
SHAPE ALONG AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE PRE DAWN MCS THAT MOVED
THROUGH OHIO EARLY THIS MORNING. WITH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
HOLDING OFF UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES HAVE CLIMBED
INTO THE UPPER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS
NOTED. DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S ARE MAKING FOR MISERABLE
HEAT INDICES THROUGH THE AREA AND WILL BE PROVIDING FUEL FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT. WINDS ARE GENERALLY FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10
KTS WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 15 KTS.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM ALOFT AS THEY
ALL WOBBLE AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THE RIDGE TO OUR WEST IN THE FACE OF
THE NEW ENGLAND TROUGH DROPPING NEARLY DUE SOUTH TO THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. DESPITE THE MOVEMENT OF THESE LARGER
FEATURES...THE TRACK OF SHORTWAVES WILL CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH FAR
EASTERN KENTUCKY...JUST ORIENTATED MORE NORTH TO SOUTH BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. GIVEN THE MODEL AGREEMENT AND THE SMALLER SCALE NATURE OF
THE PERIODIC MCS ACTIVITY HAVE FAVORED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS
LIKE THE HRRR AND NAM12 FOR THIS FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A THREAT OF STORMS INTO THE EVENING...
PERHAPS LENGTHENED BY ANY DEVELOPMENT TO THE NORTHWEST THAT COULD
MOVE INTO AT LEAST THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE JKL CWA AFTER DARK...
PER THE LATEST HRRR. SIMILAR TO LAST EVENING...THE MAIN THREATS
WITH ANY STORMS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS OF RAIN.
AGAIN TONIGHT...WOULD ANTICIPATE PATCHY FOG THROUGH THE AREA AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE SPOTS LOCALLY GIVEN ANY CLEARING. AFTER A MUGGY
NIGHT...ANOTHER WARM AND HUMID DAY CAN BE EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY WITH
MID LEVEL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE ENTIRETY
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT FAVORING OF THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. HIGH PWS AND INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY WILL SET THE TABLE FOR
A CONTINUED THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND STRONG STORMS...THOUGH
THE SEVERE RISK WILL BE LIMITED BY A GENERALLY BENIGN NORTHWEST WIND
FIELD ALOFT. SIMILARLY...SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE ANOTHER MUGGY AND
WARM ONE WITH PATCHY FOG ANTICIPATED FOR PLACES THAT WOULD HAVE SEEN
RAIN DURING THE DAY. CANNOT RULE OUT ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY INTO EARLY SUNDAY GIVEN THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AND NEARBY
SFC BOUNDARIES.

AGAIN USED THE CONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WINDS
THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. MADE SOME
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON TERRAIN FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. AS FOR POPS...ENDED UP IN BETWEEN THE MAV AND THE WETTER MET
GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

STRONG RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS LATE
IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. AS THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH PUSHES OVERHEAD EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT WILL SEND SOME
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY...FINALLY BRINGING A
TEMPORARY END TO THE RAIN CHANCES. HAVE BEEN GOING WITH LOW POPS
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT GIVEN THE NATURE OF THE DRY AIR...HAVE OPTED
TO GO WITH DRY WEATHER EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. IN
FACT...DEWPOINTS MAY GET LOW ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FEW TEMPERATURES
INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS. CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS ON SUNDAY OR SUNDAY EVENING PRIOR TO THE
DEPARTURE OF THE BETTER MID LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...EVEN THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE LESS THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY.
THUS...OVERALL...LOOK FOR A QUIETER STRETCH OF WEATHER INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE RIDGE MAY BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
PUSHES A BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS BOUNDARY TO GO WITH ANYTHING MORE THAN CHANCE
POPS FROM THURSDAY ONWARD. THE 00Z ECMWF HAD PUT THE BOUNDARY OVER
EASTERN KENTUCKY...BUT THE 12Z RUN HAS KEPT IT TO THE NORTH THROUGH
WEEKS END. IF THE BOUNDARY STAYS NORTH...PROBABLY GOING TO SEE
WARMER AND HUMID CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 735 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE AFFECTING JKL
AND SJS THROUGH 2 OR 3Z THIS EVENING. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY
IT APPEARS THAT JKL WILL EXPERIENCE THE LONGEST DURATION OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY HAZARDS TO FOCUS ON
FOR TAF PURPOSES WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING AND FREQUENT IN CLOUD AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.
IN GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...BUT ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT AFFECT JKL OR SJS COULD LEAD TO MVFR TO PERHAPS
IFR CONDITIONS DEPENDING ON HOW INTENSE THE RAIN AND WINDS WITH THESE
STORMS ARE. THE STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY DIE DOWN AS THE SUN CONTINUES
TO SET...GIVING WAY TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
RUMBLE OF THUNDER OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT ROUND OF MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT ALL OF THE TAF SITES FROM
15Z ONWARD ON SATURDAY. AS FOR TONIGHT...LOZ AND SME MIGHT BE SPARED
THE BULK OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...AR






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