Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 241120 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
720 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 710 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

TOUCHED UP THE SKY/T/TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
TRENDS. THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING ON OVER EASTERN PARTS
OF THE AREA AS LOW PRESSURE STEADILY APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
THIS IS STARTING TO TIGHTEN UP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE
SYSTEMS OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY. HERE IN THE EAST THE HIGH IS
KEEPING WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH ONLY SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS
AND PATCHY MID LEVEL ONES MOVING OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.
THESE CONDITIONS FOSTERED ANOTHER DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURES SPLIT WITH READINGS CURRENTLY VARYING FROM THE LOWER
50S IN THE DEEPER SPOTS TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND MORE OPEN LOCATIONS. DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP INTO
THE LOW AND MID 50S SETTING A BOTTOM FOR LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MOST
PLACES THIS MORNING. AS SUCH...PATCHY FOG HAS NOT SHOWED UP ON
SATELLITE OR IN THE OBS/WEB CAMS YET...BUT WILL LIKELY
MATERIALIZE IN THE RIVER VALLEYS CLOSER TOWARDS DAWN.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A MODERATELY
STRONG RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE NATION TODAY THAT
STARTS TO EASE OFF TO THE EAST IN THE FACE OF A BROAD TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. THIS TROUGH IS OPENING UP AND AS IT
DOES SO ENERGY WILL STREAM INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE
AND OHIO VALLEYS ON MID LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. THESE WAVES WILL HELP TO LOWER HEIGHTS LOCALLY AND BRUSH
PAST TO THE NORTHWEST OF EAST KENTUCKY MONDAY AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THE BROAD MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FOLLOWED THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODELS...HRRR AND NAM12...MOST CLOSELY FOR WX DETAILS THROUGH 00Z
TUESDAY.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE PATCHY VALLEY FOG CLEARING OUT
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH ANOTHER PLEASANT...BUT SLIGHTLY WARMER
AND BREEZIER DAY ON TAP FOR THE CWA. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PEAK IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S TODAY WITH
ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS SOUTH WINDS
BLOW AT 5 TO 10 MPH. LOWER CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE MORE
PROGRESS INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...BUT THEY WILL NOT DO MUCH
TO LIMIT THE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT...WITH PATCHY
VALLEY FOG AGAIN ANTICIPATED LATE. FOR MEMORIAL DAY PROPER...WE
WILL SEE A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWEST OF THE AREA THAT SEEMS TO
BE CAPABLE OF BREAKING OUR STRING OF DRY WX THIS LONG WEEKEND
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED FOR THE AFTERNOON...
ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN ZONES. NEGATIVE LIS AND MODERATE CAPE
WILL HELP FUEL ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON...
SUSTAINING AND EXPANDING IN COVERAGE EVEN FURTHER EAST INTO THE
RIDGE WITH TIME DUE TO THE INHERENT INSTABILITY AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. IT WOULD PROBABLY BE A GOOD
IDEA TO HAVE HOLIDAY OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WRAPPED UP...IF
POSSIBLE...BY EARLY AFTERNOON FOR MOST OF THE AREA OR ELSE RISK A
RAIN/STORM OUT.

FOLLOWED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD AND WIND
GRIDS TODAY BEFORE WRAPPING UP WITH THE SUPERBLEND THROUGH 00Z
TUESDAY. DID MAKE SOME SMALL TO MODERATE TERRAIN BASED CHANGES TO
THE LOW TEMPERATURES AGAIN TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM
MINIMAL THROUGH THE MONDAY MORNING AND THEN RAMPED THEM UP FOR THE
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY IN LINE WITH A BLEND OF THE MOS GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE ACTIVE AND WET AS A SERIES OF WEATHER
SYSTEMS ARE PROGGED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS
FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD. THE GFS...NAM12...AND ECMWF MODELS ALL HAD
DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS TO SOME DEGREE...WITH DIFFERENCES AMONGST THE
THREE REGARDING TIMING OF WEATHER SYSTEM PASSAGE AND THE DIURNAL
PATTERN OF PRECIPITATION. THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN LOOKS TO FEATURE A
SERIES OF LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS...WITH SLUGGISH FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES MOVING EASTWARD AT THE SURFACE. THESE WEATHER SYSTEMS
WILL BE THE TRIGGER FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE UPCOMING WEEK. IN
GENERAL TERMS...EASTERN KENTUCKY CAN EXPECT PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK...WITH THE PEAK
ACTIVITY LIKELY OCCURRING DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS. PATCHY VALLEY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND WAS
INCLUDED IN THE GRIDS YET AGAIN. TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH DAY TIME HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN
THE LOWER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AT THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS. SOME PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG IS EXPECTED AGAIN
TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD NOT IMPACT TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
SOME THIN HIGH CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL PATCHED OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS
TO DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA FROM TIME TO TIME. SOUTH WINDS WILL
RAMP UP ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY TODAY...SO HAVE MORE MODERATE
WINDS IN THE SME/LOZ/SYM/SJS TAFS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING
THEM OFF AFTER 00Z MONDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF



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