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000
FXUS63 KLBF 182029
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
329 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

SPRING HAS ARRIVED AND THE FORECAST FOCUS TURNS TOWARD
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...TEMPERATURES AND EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS
DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY RETURN NORTH.

THE MOST INTERESTING PORTION OF THE FORECAST MIGHT BE NEXT
WEDNESDAY WHEN A POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE CNTL AND
NRN PLAINS. STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

A STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET /NEARING 50 KTS/ WILL TRANSPORT
GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDS WELL INTO THE EVENING...AS THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MIXED AND THE STRONGER WINDS ARE MIXED TO THE
SURFACE. WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND CONTINUED WIND...LOWS
WILL BE QUITE MILD OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN
NORTHWEST NEBRASKA...TO NEAR 50 ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE...A STRONG SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. THIS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH INTO THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT...WITH THE FRONT STALLING LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS IN EASTERN
COLORADO/NORTHWEST KANSAS. IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL STALL FROM THE
NORFOLK AREA...SOUTHWEST TO NEAR LEXINGTON AND MCCOOK. THIS WILL BE
THE AREA THAT STANDS THE BEST CHANCE FOR A FEW SURFACE BASED TSTMS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE SCALED BACK PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
OUR AREA...AS THE BETTER FOCUS SHOULD BE JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS CNTL NEB SATURDAY
NIGHT WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR MOISTURE POOLING JUST BEHIND THE FRONT
FROM ROUGHLY KIML TO KONL. AT THE SAME TIME A DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT
NORTHEAST OUT OF COLO WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG...AHEAD AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOCUSES
THE BEST FORCING AND INSTABILITY JUST EAST OF THE FCST AREA. POPS
INCREASE EASTWARD. PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO NEAR AN INCH IN
CUSTER COUNTY BUT JUST WEST IN LINCOLN COUNTY...DRY AIR IN THE 850-700MB
LAYER IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT RAIN CHANCES.

A CHECK ON INSTABILITY AND SHEAR REVEALED LOW VALUES OF BOTH JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT SUGGESTING SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY AS INDICATED
BY SPC IN THEIR DISCUSSION.

THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES LITTLE SUNDAY BUT GETS KICKED EAST
SUNDAY EVENING WITH THE APPROACH OF A NRN STREAM DISTURBANCE WHICH
WILL LIKELY DRIVE A STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FCST AREA
FLUSHING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH AND EAST. THE MODELS LIFT THE
FRONT NORTH A BIT SATURDAY NIGHT AND ARE GENERATING SOME ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THIS FRONT MOVES THROUGH SO ISOLATED POPS ARE IN
PLACE FOR THIS EVENT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY RISE INTO THE 60S AND 70S. VERY
MODEST COOLING IS EXPECTED WITH THE PACIFIC AIR MOVING IN AND LOWS
SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 40S.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY AND TRACKS VERY
SLOWLY EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY. THE LOW DEEPENS TO AROUND
988 MB WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD LIKELY SET UP SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH
TUESDAY AND AROUND 30 MPH OR HIGHER WEDNESDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECM
POSITION THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE ERN SANDHILLS WEDNESDAY AFTN AND
GENERATE CONVECTION EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 WEDNESDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR SHOWN BY THE MODELS...SEVERE WEATHER IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. WHAT REMAINS TO BE DETERMINED IS THE LOCATION OF
THE DRYLINE. THE DEEP SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS COULD EASILY PULL MOISTURE FURTHER WEST. WE ARE
EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 BOTH DAYS. THE ECM SUGGESTED
MID 80S.

THIS LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY EAST THURSDAY AND INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST BY FRIDAY MORNING. THE ECM AND GFS PULL A WEAK SHOT OF
ARCTIC AIR INTO THE FCST AREA. BEST GUESS ON HIGHS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY IS 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 117 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS AT 30000FT ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS NEAR 12000FT TO 15000FT WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. A
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET NEAR 50 KTS WILL SLOWLY BRING GULF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A LOW
CLOUD STRATUS LAYER. WINDS WILL BE AN ISSUE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING...WITH SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KTS AND GUSTS
TO 35 KTS. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...AND BECOME
NORTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHEAST/EASTERN COLORADO.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CDC
SHORT TERM...TAYLOR
LONG TERM...CDC
AVIATION...TAYLOR