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000
FXUS63 KLBF 220522 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1222 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

AT H5 CLOSED LOW OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. CLOUD SHIELD EXTENDS
INTO MONTANA...WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS AND LARGE CLOSED LOW OVER PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH
RIDGE BETWEEN SYSTEMS THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AT THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT FROM 999MB SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA THROUGH
IOWAS MISSOURI AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA TO CENTRAL TEXAS.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 930 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

MADE SOME MINOR DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO LOWS TONIGHT...MOST
NOTABLY IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WHERE SOME LIMITED CLEARING WAS
OCCURRING AS OF MID EVENING. LOWS TONIGHT WERE LOWERED TO THE UPPER
30S IN THE PANHANDLE COUNTIES AND WESTERN SANDHILLS...WITH LOWER
TO MID 40S EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE PRESENT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...AND AM EXPECTING THEM
TO PERSIST ACROSS THE NERN ZONES OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...SOME
SPRINKLES WERE OCCURRING ACROSS CUSTER...NORTH TO KEYA PAHA COUNTY
AND OVER PORTIONS OF LINCOLN COUNTY. AT THIS TIME...ONLY TRACE
AMOUNTS WERE BEING REPORTED. WINDS WILL DIE OFF OVERNIGHT AND ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 MPH BY SUNRISE. WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN TOMORROW...BUT BE A FRACTION OF TODAY`S SPEEDS WITH 10 TO 20
MPH EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

FORECAST CONCERNS THROUGH THIS TIME PERIOD INVOLVE CLOUD COVER
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES BOTH TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY.

A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AT 19Z WITH A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS MUCH OF
NEBRASKA. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WAS ALSO
LOCATED OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA/SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. THIS SYSTEM
WAS PART OF A LARGER TROUGH...WHICH EXTENDED DOWN THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. COOL AIR ACCOMPANIED THIS SYSTEM AS 850MB WINDS
WERE MEASURED IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS FROM THE 21.12Z UPPER AIR DATA. THIS KEPT HIGHS TODAY WELL
BELOW NORMAL...IN THE 50S TO MID 60S. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ROTATED
AROUND THIS SYSTEM...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS SEEN MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN NEBRASKA THROUGH THE DAY.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND BY 23.00Z SHOULD BE OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...TO EVENTUALLY CLEAR SKIES AND BRING AN END TO THE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
SYSTEM...CONTINUED THE MENTION OF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. GOING TO THE WEST AND SOUTH
THESE SHOWERS WILL END EARLIER. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...SLOWLY CLEARING FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE CLOUD COVER
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...SO HAVE MADE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS TO LOWS TONIGHT WITH A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER NOW
EXPECTED.

LOWS WILL BE COOL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S
OVER THE PANHANDLE WHERE BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL
BE IN PLACE TO THE UPPER 40S OVER NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WHERE
CLOUDS WILL BE AND WINDS WILL STAY A BIT HIGHER.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST ON WEDNESDAY...WARMER AIR WILL
ADVECT INTO THE FORECAST AREA. STILL ANTICIPATING HIGHS BELOW
NORMAL...BUT WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES INCREASING BY 7-9 DEGREES...AND
WITH SOME SUNSHINE SHOULD GET HIGHS TO RISE INTO THE LOW 70S OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...WHILE THE NORTH CENTRAL AREAS WILL STAY QUITE
COOL AROUND 60 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013

MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE NEAR TERM BUT CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE
WITH THE AMOUNT OF COLDER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY ON. AS THE RIDGE SHARPENS IN RESPONSE TO THE CLOSED LOW
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS THEY WERE THIS MORNING AND HOW COLD
THEY WILL BE WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ON THE
COOL SIDE WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S. NORMAL FOR THE SEASON IS 48 AT
KLBF. NORMAL HIGH IS 76. THURSDAY TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE 70S.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND COULD CARRY WEST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA
THURSDAY EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY SCHC T THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING AS LLJ INCREASES. WITH MIXING AND CLOUD COVER WAA
TEMPERATURES WILL HOLD IN THE 50S OVER NIGHT. STATIONARY BOUNDARY
WILL SET UP JUST TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT THE GULF
OPEN AND WAVES MOVING ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE ENSEMBLE
MEANS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GFS SOLUTIONS AND HAVE
DISCOUNTED COOLER TEMPERATURES ADVERTISED BY THE EC.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1221 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

FOR THE KLBF TERMINAL...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIGS RANGING FROM 1500
TO 2500 FT AGL ARE LIKELY THROUGH LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY. CIGS WILL
LIFT TO AROUND 5000 FT AGL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE SCATTERING OUT
WEDNESDAY EVENING. FOR THE KVTN TERMINAL MVFR AND IFR CIGS RANGING
FROM 800 TO 1500 FT AGL ARE LIKELY THROUGH MID MORNING WEDNESDAY.
CIGS WILL RISE TO 2500 TO 5000 FT AGL WEDNESDAY EVENING. AT BOTH
TERMINALS...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS TONIGHT WILL
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KTS WEDNESDAY. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AT THE KVTN TERMINAL OVERNIGHT AND WILL MONITOR
RADAR TRENDS FOR INCLUSION IN THE 06Z FCST.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CLB
SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...BROOKS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...CDC