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000
FXUS63 KLBF 111003
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
403 AM CST WED DEC 11 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST WED DEC 11 2013

AN ARCTIC HIGH CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS RIDGES SOUTH INTO
NEBRASKA. TEMPERATURES AT 08Z ARE 10 TO 15 BELOW OVER MUCH OF
NORTH DAKOTA...5 TO 10 BELOW MUCH OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEAR ZERO
ALONG THE NORTHERN NEBRASKA BORDER. SOME STRATUS PERSISTS ACROSS
THE WESTERN SANDHILLS...WITH OTHERWISE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. FLURRIES HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN PORTIONS OF THE SANDHILLS
AS WELL...ALTHOUGH THIS SHOULD BE ENDING VERY SOON BASED OF KLNX
RADAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST WED DEC 11 2013

THE BACKDOOR ARCTIC FRONT IS HANDLED WELL BY MODELS. GIVEN THE
AGGRESSIVELY DRY AND COLD AIR CURRENTLY BUILDING INTO WESTERN
NEBRASKA...LOWS BY DAYBREAK SHOULD FALL TO 5 BELOW TO 8 BELOW
(VTN...ANW AND ONL). WINDS LIGHT INTO MID MORNING 5 MPH OR LESS
TO BRING WINDS CHILLS AROUND 20 BELOW. THEREFORE WIND CHILLS
ADVISORY TO CONTINUE UNTIL 17Z FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF NCTRL NEBR
INCLUDING E CHERRY COUNTY WHICH WAS ADDED IN TO THE ADVISORY.

MOST MODELS INCLUDING GUIDANCE FORECAST TEMPS TODAY LOOK TOO
COLD. THIS IS LIKELY DUE TO MOST MODELS OVER FORECASTING SNOW
DEPTH. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SURFACE HIGH TODAY. HAVE NUDGED TOWARD THE WARMER GEM REGIONAL 2M
TEMPS WITH LOWER 30S IN CHASE COUNTY AND UPPER 20S/NEAR 30 SERN
PANHANDLE AND REMAINDER OF WEST/SW. THE COLDEST TEMPS WILL BE IN
THE NORTHEAST WHERE UPPER TEENS FORECAST. WILL NOTE THAT NAM AND
RUC13 ARE FORECASTING SHALLOW MOISTURE AND AREAS OF STRATUS
PERSISTING TODAY...WHICH COULD ADVERSELY AFFECT HIGHS. CURRENT
STRATUS HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF DECREASING IN COVERAGE AND GIVEN DEEP
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES FORECAST TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH AND CLEAR SKIES. LOWS NOT AS
COLD AND FAIRLY UNIFORM MOST AREAS 6-10 ABOVE.
SYNOPTICALLY...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES TO OCCUR AS RIDGE IN THE
WEST BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS. THE COLDEST AIR WILL ALSO RETREAT
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 AM CST WED DEC 11 2013

LONG TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS...WITH SEVERAL WAVES TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA. AHEAD OF EACH
WAVE...TEMPS WILL WARM CLOSE TO OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS...AT LEAST
WHERE THERE IS NO SNOW PACK. BEHIND EACH WAVE COLD HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING A DAY COOL DAY. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND MOST AREAS ARE
DRY...HOWEVER COULD SEE A FEW SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
FLURRIES...ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY DRY.

WARM FRONT WILL HAVE LIFTED NE OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH SW WINDS TO HELP MIX WARM AIR TO THE SURFACE. HIGHS
IN SW NEB SHOULD REACH 40 PLUS...WHILE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE NORTH
HOLDS IN THE 30S.

NEXT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ARRIVES FOR FRIDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE SO
HAVE A DRY FORECAST...ALTHOUGH THE LATEST GFS DID COME IN WITH A
HUNDREDTH OR TWO ACROSS NRN ZONES. WILL NEED TO WATCH...AND WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW FLURRIES BEHIND THE FRONT.

REINFORCING COLD HIGH FOR SATURDAY...SHOULD HOLD TEMPS IN THE 20S
FAR NE ZONES...TO 30S ACROSS THE WEST. WARMER AIR ALOFT AS HEIGHTS
DO INCREASE...ALTHOUGH NW WINDS FAIRLY LIGHT AND WITH PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE A FULLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH A
NEAR LOWEST SUN ANGLE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER CLIPPER SYSTEM. MODELS HAVE TRENDED
SLIGHTLY FURTHER TO THE NE WITH THE SYSTEM...ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGION. LARGE GRADIENT FOR TEMPS SETS UP
ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS IN SW NEB WELL INTO THE 40S...WHILE THE FAR
NORTHEAST MAY NOT GET MUCH ABOVE 20. THIS WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
ADJUSTMENTS AS THE MODELS MEANDER THE SW PUSH OF THE COLD AIR.

BY MONDAY MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH ANOTHER WARM UP ACROSS THE
BOARD. HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S BENEATH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. MODELS
ONCE AGAIN TAKE ANOTHER CLIPPER/BACK DOOR FRONT ACROSS THE AREA
WHICH WOULD COOL DOWN THE AREA FOR TUESDAY. LESS AGREEMENT WITH
THIS CLIPPER...WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING SINCE THIS IS A WEEK OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST TUE DEC 10 2013

MVFR CIGS BETWEEN KVTN AND KTIF WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH KLBF
OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS THEN SUGGEST THIS MOISTURE WILL BECOME
TRAPPED AND PRODUCE IFR/LIFR CIGS TOWARD MORNING BUT THIS IS
UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE VERTICAL MIXING THAT COULD DEVELOP AFTER
SUNRISE.

THE FCST FOLLOWS THE MODEL SOLN AT KLBF BUT KEEPS KVTN IN VFR
DURING THE MORNING. IF THE MVFR/IFR CIGS DEVELOP AT KLBF AFTER
NEAR OR AFTER SUNRISE THEN THEY WOULD LIKELY GET LIFTED EAST
THROUGH KANW/KONL/KBBW DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTN AS A
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR NEZ005>010.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...MASEK
AVIATION...CDC