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000
FXUS63 KLBF 021223
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
623 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

AT 09Z...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED FROM THE MID MISSOURI
VALLEY TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA. RADAR RETURNS INDICATED FROM WRN AND NCTRL
CO INTO FAR SERN WY AND THE SW PNHDL OF NEBR. TEMPERATURES RANGE
FROM 29 AT IML TO 17 AT ONL AND ANW. WINDS WERE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TO LIGHT SOUTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

FOR TODAY...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT FROM NERN CO INTO SWRN NEBR
AND THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS THIS MORNING. THIS LOOKS SUFFICIENT FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF -SN. LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES AT H85 WILL MODERATE TO -2C AT IML AND -5C AT ONL.
MIXING DOWN THESE TEMPERATURES TO BRING HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY BY MID MORNING AND
REACH 20 TO 30 MPH NCTRL AND 15 TO 25 MPH SOUTHWEST BY
AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROUGH OFF THE COAST OF SRN CALIFORNIA WILL
LIFT QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO SRN WY AND WRN CO BY 06Z TUESDAY AND
ACROSS WRN SD AND WRN BY 12Z. A FRONTOGENETIC BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW
WILL DEVELOP FROM SERN WY INTO FAR NRN NEBR AND SRN SOUTH DAKOTA
OVERNIGHT. PRECEDING THIS UPPER TROUGH AND DEVELOPING FRONTOGENETIC
BAND...STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT INDICATED ON THE 280K SFC ALONG AND
EAST OF HWY 83. THIS WILL LIKELY SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS AND WITH
WEAK LIFT INDICATED BY THE NAM MODEL...THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
DRIZZLE EARLY THIS EVENING TO TRANSITION TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FROM
03Z TO 09Z. WHILE QPFS SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AT ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS
OF AN INCH...THIS COULD CREATE SLICK SPOTS ON ROADWAYS AND BRIDGES.
WHAT APPEARS MORE LIKELY IS ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ACROSS NRN
NEBRASKA BY 06Z TONIGHT. USED A BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS FOR POPS
AND QPFS. CORRESPONDING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES FCST
ACROSS SHERIDAN AND CHERRY COUNTY EAST ACROSS KEYA PAHA AND BOYD
COUNTY. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 3 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
PINE RIDGE. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS SYSTEM INTO TUESDAY...THESE
COUNTIES HAVE BEEN PLACED IN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 06Z
TUESDAY UNTIL 18Z TUESDAY. ARCTIC AIR WILL PLUNGE SOUTH BEHIND A
STRONG COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE FA OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL TO NEAR 15 ACROSS SHERIDAN AND WRN CHERRY COUNTY TO AROUND
25 ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 20 TO
30 MPH WEST OF AN OSHKOSH THROUGH VALENTINE LINE TOWARD 12Z.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

12Z TUESDAY AND BEYOND.  ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES
WILL BE ONGOING TO START OFF THE EXTENDED PERIODS...HOWEVER THE
SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW WILL BE A QUICK HITTER.  THE REST OF
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FROM WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND APPEARS DRY.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SOLUTION IN WHICH A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE WILL AMPLIFY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES ARRIVES ATOP THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  THE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL AID IN FORCING A STRONG
ARCTIC COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY.  WHILE THE
MID RANGE SOLUTIONS REMAIN AT ODDS ON THE TIMING OF THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS SUGGEST THAT THE FRONT WILL BE
GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE SANDHILLS BY 12Z TUESDAY
MORNING.  STRONG CAA IS SHOWN TO FILL BEHIND THE PASSING
BOUNDARY...LEADING TO ABNORMALLY COLD TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH MIDWEEK.  IN FACT...A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS IMPLEMENTED DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS
READINGS BY MID AFTERNOON WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.  IN ADDITION TO THE FALLING
TEMPERATURES...STRONG CAA AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LEAD TO
GUSTY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY.  WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE IN OPEN AREAS.  WITH THE STRONG WIND
AND COLD TEMPERATURES...DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILL READINGS ARE
FORECAST OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.  A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR THE SANDHILLS AND
POINT NORTH. THE STRONG WIND WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY WHERE SNOW IS ABLE TO ACCUMULATE.  THE GENERAL
TREND OF THE FORECAST IS NORTH WITH THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS...BUT
THE MODELS STILL POINT TO AN AREA OF UPGLIDE TARGETING OUR NORTHERN
ZONES THROUGH 18Z OR SO ON WEDNESDAY WHILE DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVES SPREADS EAST.  THE MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW A STRONG 150KT
ULJ EXITING TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY...THE
AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE TO THE PASSING JET WOULD HELP PROMOTE
FRONTOGENETIC BANDING AND ENHANCED SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UNTIL 15Z OR
SO ACROSS OUR FAR NORTH.  THEREAFTER...THE MODELS INDICATE THE
BANDING BECOMING INCREASINGLY FRONTOLYTIC IN OUR AREA...WITH THE
GREATER FOCUS SHIFTING NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN SD.
ACCUMULATIONS BEYOND 12Z ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES SHOULD BE
LIGHT...WITH AT MOST AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO EXPECTED.  FURTHER
SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL SANDHILLS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...THE
MODELS SHOW SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND OMEGA FOR LIGHT SNOW...HOWEVER
ACCUMULATIONS HERE WOULD ONLY AMOUNT TO A COUPLE TENTHS OF AN INCH
OR LESS.  WILL RETAIN SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THESE AREAS.

ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY END LATE TUESDAY MORNING AS
THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS EAST...WILL EXPIRE OUR WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES AT 18Z.  NOTE HOWEVER THAT GUSTY
NORTHERLY WINDS MAY KEEP VISIBILITY LOW WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

TUESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY THE MODELS SHOW AN ADDITIONAL
WEAK MID-LEVEL FGEN BAND DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND
POSSIBLY THE EASTERN PANHANDLE.  LIGHT SNOW IS FORECAST IN THIS
AREA...HOWEVER ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AN INCH OR LESS.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OFF THE WEST COAST OF NORTH
AMERICA WILL BUILD EAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND EVENTUALLY ATOP THE
ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND.  HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WITH A WESTERLY DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT OF
THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND AIDING IN WARMING TEMPERATURES FURTHER.
HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE 50S FOR MOST PLACES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

FOR THE KLBF AND KVTN TERMINALS...VFR CONDITIONS TODAY. A WINTER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO  WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT BRINGING IFR
CEILINGS AND A CHANCE FOR FREEZING DRIZZLE AFTER 03Z AT KLBF AND
KVTN. AFTER 06Z...A TRANSITION TO SNOW IS EXPECTED AT KVTN WITH
VSBYS FALLING AS LOW AS 3/4SM.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

THE FLOOD WARNING TO CONTINUE ON THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER NEAR
LEWELLEN UPSTREAM OF LAKE MCCONAUGHY. THE STAGE AT 07Z WAS AT 8.08
FEET WHICH IS ABOUT A HALF A FOOT ABOVE THE 7.5 FOOT FLOOD STAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR 40 AT LEWELLEN TODAY...BUT WILL
PROBABLY NOT BE ABOVE FREEZING LONG ENOUGH TO AFFECT THE ICE. HIGHS
ONLY IN THE LOW 20S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS WILL LIKELY CAUSE ICE JAMMING TO PERSIST OR WORSEN SLIGHTLY
AT LEWELLEN AND COULD DEVELOP IN OTHER RIVER IN WRN NEBR.
SIGNIFICANT WARMING IS FORECAST THURSDAY AND BEYOND THAT WILL AID IN
BREAKING UP THE ICE JAM. CLIMATOLOGICALLY...ICE JAMS ARE RARE GOING
INTO MARCH.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT TO
NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR NEZ004>007-094.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERG
SHORT TERM...ROBERG
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...ROBERG
HYDROLOGY...ROBERG