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000
FXUS63 KLBF 182359 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
659 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

CURRENTLY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INITIATING IN THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
THE EASTERN ROCKIES. ALSO...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INITIATING IN THE
VICINITY OF A LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNING ALONG
THE NE/KS BORDER. ALL OF THIS IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

CURRENTLY WATCHING TWO AREAS FOR THE POTENTIAL OF CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE FIRST IS TIED REMNANTS/OUTFLOW OF LAST
NIGHTS MCS...WHICH WOULD FAVOR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND FAR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WILL LIMIT POP CHANCES IN THE
PRE FIRST PERIOD TO 20 PERCENT OR LESS FOR THIS AREA. A QUICK
GLANCE AT THE THERMODYNAMICS WOULD SUGGEST AMPLE SBCAPE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR STRONG AND/OR SEVERE STORMS...HOWEVER EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT LACKING UNTIL EARLY EVENING...THUS WILL NOT
MENTION ANY SVR WORDING IN THE PRE-FIRST PERIOD. THE SECOND AREA
OF CONCERN FOR CONVECTION LIES TO THE WEST OF THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT ON HOW
THESE STORMS WILL EVOLVE...BUT CURRENT TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN
COLORADO/WYOMING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. THE STORMS WILL LIFT OFF THE HIGH PLAINS AND
ENCOUNTER A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FURTHER EAST...WITH AMPLE
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. ESPECIALLY ENCOURAGING IS THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OVERNIGHT...WHICH WOULD FAVOR STORM
MAINTENANCE. A COMPLEX OF STORMS PASSING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WILL GENERALLY TIE THE
HIGHEST POPS /30-40 PERCENT/ ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES THIS
EVENING...AND CARRY THOSE EAST OVERNIGHT...WITH AT LEAST 20
PERCENT CHANCES OVER MOST OF THE CWA. PRECIPITATION UNCERTAINTY
CONTINUES INTO THE DAY TOMORROW AS LINGERING SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS
SHOWN TO SPARK OFF ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS...AT THIS POINT
THINKING IS THAT THE THREAT IS MARGINAL AND SHOULD BE TIED TO OUR
EASTERN ZONES...REMOVED FROM WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT. OTHERWISE
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND BUILDING HEIGHTS. A FEW 90 DEGREE
READINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS ARE INDICATING THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE EAST AS A WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WAVE WILL BE TOPPING
THE RIDGE THAT WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS STATES. ALSO...A
LOW LEVEL JET OF 40 TO 50 KTS WILL BE NOSING INTO THE EASTERN
AREAS...AROUND BROKEN BOW AND ONEILL...LATE IN THE NIGHT. WITH
1500 TO 2500 J/KG WORTH OF CAPE IN THIS AREA...BELIEVE THE FAR
EAST WILL SEE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR LATE NIGHT THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN WY/MT AND INTO
THE DAKOTAS ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...
MODELS INDICATE THERE MAY BE A WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
NORTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO NEBRASKA. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT LOOKS TO BE IN THE NORTH
LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL EXIST INTO
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW STALLS OUT OVER NEBRASKA
BEFORE PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND UPWARD THROUGH FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...REACHING THE
MID 80S TO MID 90S ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE COOLING OFF TO THE
80S /GENERALLY/ BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST
TONIGHT INTO THE WESTERN NEBRASKA SANDHILLS AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. STORMS ARE HIGH BASED AND VISUAL FLIGHT RULES
ARE EXPECTED. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY PICK UP WITH THE ONSET OF
THE SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 45KTS MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AFTER 18TH 03Z.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KNUTSVIG
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...KNUTSVIG
AVIATION...POWER