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000
FXUS63 KLBF 301753
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1253 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY REMAINS ANCHORED WITH A DEEP
BROAD TROUGH COVERING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS ALL THE WAY TO
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THIS FEATURE IS KEEPING THE HIGH OVER THE
SOUTHWEST AND HEAT RIDGE INTO THE WESTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES AT BAY.
VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE WITH BLOCKING PATTERN
DOWNSTREAM. AT THE SURFACE A STATIONARY BOUNDARY LYING ACROSS
NORTHERN COLORADO EXTENDING EAST SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA. ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE OVER COLORADO...NEW MEXICO...
WESTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
145 TO 165 PERCENT OF NORMAL. STRONG UPPER WAVE INTERACTING WITH
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN
PLACE RESULTANT 1 TO 2 INCH TOTALS AT THE SURFACE. RETURNS ON KLNX
88D OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BEING IN EASTERLY FLOW WELL NORTH OF THE
FRONT ONLY PRODUCING A TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH RAINFALL TOTALS WITH
RETURNS LOSING INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE AS WAVE TAKES A MORE
SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY INTO SOUTHWEST KANSAS. HAVEN`T SEEN A LIGHTNING
REPORT IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA SINCE 5Z AND HAVE GONE WITH SHOWERS
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND THEN CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AGAIN LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY AROUND 80 AGAIN WITH 70S IN THE AREAS TO THE WEST
AND SOUTHWEST WITH THICKER CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THE
UPPER LOW TO THE NORTHEAST DROPS SOME ENERGY THROUGH FAST NORTHWEST
FLOW INTO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TONIGHT. AM NOT TOTALLY SOLD ON
THIS FEATURE IN THE NAM AND HAVE LEFT DRY FOR NOW. LOWS TONIGHT IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH PARTIAL CLEARING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE EXTENDED DEALS WITH PERIODIC LOW END
POPS. AMPLIFIED RIDGE/TROUGH WILL RELUCTANTLY RELAX LATE IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WEAKENS AND VARIOUS
WAVES ATTEMPT TO BREAKDOWN/SUPPRESS THE WESTERN CONUS RIDGE. LONG
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL FOR
MUCH OF THE EXTENDED...BUT THEN THE UPPER LEVELS MAY BECOME
INCONSISTENT AS THE MAIN UPPER ANTICYCLONE RETROGRADES WEST AND A
POTENTIAL VORT MAX AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. INITIALLY THERE REMAINS FAIRLY SOLID
CONTINUITY BETWEEN LONG RANGE SOLUTIONS AND MANY OF THE
ENSEMBLES...WITH LESS CONTINUITY LATE IN THE EXTENDED...BUT STILL
REASONABLE AGREEMENT IS SHOWN. WITH THAT BEING SAID...THE ALLBLEND
EXTENDED PROCEDURE KEPT THE POP FORECAST ELEMENT THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED IN THE 40 PERCENT RANGE OR LESS...WHICH WAS DEEMED
REASONABLE. ATTM...THE GREATEST OPPORTUNITY FOR WIDESPREAD...OR AT
LEAST SCATTERED QPF WILL COME TUESDAY AFTERNOON OF NEXT WEEK OR
LATER. ISOLATED/SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS/CONVECTION APPEAR
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING THIS WEEK AS UPGLIDE TARGETS A
WEAK IMPULSE AND BAROCLINIC ZONE. WITH SOME COOLING ALOFT
EXPECTED...CAPE PARAMETERS INCREASE IN THE 500-1000 J/KG
RANGE...BUT WITH BULK SHEAR ADVERTISED AT 25KTS OR LESS...STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE INTO THE COMING WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS APPROACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S BY
SUNDAY...BUT WITH THE SUPPRESSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...HIGHS WILL COOL ONCE AGAIN BELOW
SEASONAL NORMS.  LOWS TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL WITH READINGS IN THE 50S
AND 60S BEING COMMON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE NORTH THURSDAY...WITH
SUSTAINED SPEEDS GENERALLY REMAINING LESS THAN 10 KTS. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE FRONT MAY TRIGGER SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON ALONG AND EAST OF A KONL TO KBUB
LINE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

WATER RELEASES HAVE BEEN INCREASED FROM LAKE MCCONAUGHY. THIS WILL
CAUSE A RISE ON THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER DOWN STREAM FROM LAKE MAC.
AT THIS TIME THE RIVER IS FORECASTED TO REMAIN IN ITS BANKS. AN
RVS STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ELEVATED NORTH PLATTE RIVER
LEVELS AT NORTH PLATTE...HOWEVER NO FLOODING CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...JACOBS
AVIATION...TAYLOR
HYDROLOGY...TAYLOR