Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 231141 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
541 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 401 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

Good confidence in the near term forecast based largely on the NAM
solution. Height falls spreading east across the Great Basin as the
system moves onshore...height rises into the northern plains in
response. 3 hour pressure changes of -3mb over northern Colorado
early this morning as surface low begins to organize. The low will
continue to organize and move onto the eastern plains of Colorado
and deepen to 997mb through the afternoon. Fairly strong warm air
advection and moisture advection through the day today with
increasing mid and high clouds and deep southerly flow. Even with
clouds expect warm frontal boundary to warm forecast area to around
50 this afternoon. As upper closed low moves out of the Great Basin
towards the northern high plains surface low will move into
northwest Kansas this evening with rain initially  developing over
the eastern Nebraska Panhandle and then mixing with or changing to
snow in the higher elevations of the northwest zones. Changeover to
all snow after midnight with accumulations to the north and
northwest through the early morning hours. Overnight lows in the mid
20s. North winds moving into the northwest towards sunrise.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 401 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

Main concern for this forecast period still continues to be
potential upcoming winter storm that will affect the region.The
system should arrive in our forecast area by Tuesday morning and
will continue to affect the forecast area until Wednesday

There were several challenges with the forecast for Tuesday through
Wednesday. The first being the time of the system and the amount of
moisture with the system. Some models are suggesting adequate
moisture availability while others present a more drier
solution...especially across southwest Nebraska. Confidence is
higher that across our northern forecast area...along the
Nebraska/South Dakota border that a significant amount of snow will
impact the area...hence the issuance of the watch. At the moment
amounts of 4 to 6 inches are possible along the border...however
amounts may need to be adjusted depending on the track of the system
a more northerly track will give us less snow.

The second challenge was the potential for freezing rain. Forecast
soundings suggest the possibility for a few hours of freezing rain
across southwest Nebraska during the early morning hours of Tuesday.
At the moment have decided to leave the mention of freezing rain out
as confidence is low that precipitation will occur across southwest
Nebraska during that time frame...will continue to monitor.

Winds will increase as the low pressure system moves across Nebraska
increasing to sustained winds of 20 to 25 mph Tuesday into Wednesday
with gust up to 35 mph. Strong winds will also create blowing snow
potential during the day Tuesday through Wednesday.

Thursday through Sunday temperatures will remain cool in the 20s and
30s and looks to remain dry.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 536 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

Storm system ogranizing over the Rockies today with increasing mid
and high clouds over western Nebraska. Strong south to southeast
flow today ahead of the system. Ceilings will lower into MVFR
categories over the Nebraska Panhandle and northern Nebraska after
24 06z. Have included a prob group for the KVTN taf site after
06z. Areas of rain and rain snow mixed over the northwest after
24 00z then spreading east through the early morning on Tuesday.


Issued at 401 AM CST Mon Jan 23 2017

The North Platte river above Lake McConaughy will remain elevated
due to ice jamming.


Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Wednesday morning
for NEZ004>010-028-029-094.



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