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000
FXUS63 KLBF 061159 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
559 AM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

IN THE NEAR TERM MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND HAVE GOOD CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST. COLD AIR LINGERS OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA WITH THE
COLDEST AIR OVER DEEP SNOW COVER ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2
GENERALLY NORTH OF AN OSHKOSH TO CHAMBERS LINE. SOUTH OF THIS LINE
VOID OF SNOW COVER. THIS HAS AFFECTED TEMPERATURE FORECAST
SIGNIFICANTLY THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES ONTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. UPSLOPE FLOW IN COLD AIR WILL BEGIN TO SQUEEZE
OUT LIMITED MOISTURE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE PINE RIDGE IN
SHERIDAN COUNTY THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING ON
SATURDAY. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER NORTHERN SHERIDAN
COUNTY. TEMPERATURES TODAY AFTER A VERY COLD MORNING WILL STRUGGLE
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER AND NEAR THE SNOW FIELD...WITH MID
TEENS SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WITH MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS. NOT AS COLD TONIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND WINDS
KEEPING THINGS MIXED. TEMPERATURES FROM ZERO OVER SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA TO 10 BLOW OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

SYSTEM FORECASTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
IS STILL ON TRACK. ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY
WITH CLOUD COVER THICKENING. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SATURDAY
EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS ISENTROPIC LIFT CONTINUES AND
THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATES. LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT WILL KEEP
ACTUAL LIQUID PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LOW...JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH...BUT COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH LIQUID TO SNOW
RATIOS ON THE ORDER OF 18 TO 1 OR SO. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF FLUFFY SNOW ACCUMULATING EAST OF A
NORTH PLATTE TO AINSWORTH LINE...WITH AN INCH OR SO TO THE WEST OF
THIS LINE. BY SUNDAY EVENING DOWNGLIDE QUICKLY TAKES HOLD WITH ANY
REMAINING LIGHT SNOW RAPIDLY COMING TO AN END. SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10
TO 20 MPH SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY NORTHWEST
WINDS AT 10 TO 20 MPH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON COULD LEAD TO A LITTLE
BLOWING SNOW...BUT NOT EXPECTING THAT TO BE A REAL BIG DEAL AT THIS
POINT.

IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM...ANOTHER STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING THE CURRENT COLD SPELL INTO
MONDAY. SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS PACIFIC AIR TRIES TO WORK INTO THE REGION. AT THIS TIME
NO BIG WARM UPS ARE ANTICIPATED...BUT TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S WILL
FEEL PRETTY GOOD AFTER DAYS OF HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 0558 AM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA TODAY FROM
THE WEST. SOME AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT UNDER 10 MPH TODAY.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR
NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-059-094.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POWER
LONG TERM...TAYLOR
AVIATION...POWER