Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 202345 AAA
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
645 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE 20.12Z SHORT TERM MODEL SUITE IS IN SOLID AGREEMENT FOR
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ABNORMALLY WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BUILD EAST AND BEGIN THE BREAKDOWN PROCESS AS
A TROUGH ADVANCES FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN TOWARD SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA. THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL AID IN
DEEPENING A LEE SFC TROUGH WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASING
SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORY OF THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. A PLUME OF
MOISTURE IS SHOWN TO ADVECT NORTH AND EAST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
AND EVENTUALLY PASS ATOP THE FORECAST AREA...ALLOWING FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS ACROSS OUR SOUTH. PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS
INDICATE TO FAVORABLE PERIODS OF STRATUS...FIRST AFTER SUNRISE
TUESDAY...THEN ONCE AGAIN IN THE MID-TO-LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
DEBATED THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG ACROSS OUR SW AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT
AS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SATURATION WITH A SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER
ALOFT...BUT NAM VISIBILITY PARAMETERS AND SREF PROBS ARE
SUGGESTING THE BEST POTENTIAL SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REMAIN UNSEASONABLY WARM TUESDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD 70S ANTICIPATED
FOR HIGHS. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AS WELL TUESDAY
AFTERNOON /GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH/...BUT THE INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL HELP KEEP FIRE CONCERNS AT BAY AS MINIMUM RH FALLS
INTO 30-40% DURING PEAK HEATING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A PERSISTENT STRETCH OF MILD DAYS AHEAD. SHOWER CHANCES LATER TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THEN POSSIBLY SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE 12Z GFS INDICATES SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA IN AN AREA JUST
AHEAD OF H7 TROUGH AND WITHIN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. H85 ALSO SSW AT 40-45KTS. MODELS
REMAIN PROGRESSIVE WITH SYSTEM AND AS A RESULT...POPS WEDNESDAY
MORNING UP TO 40 PERCENT...THEN 40 TO 60 PERCENT EAST OF BASSETT
THROUGH NORTH PLATTE. LITTLE OR NO POPS WEST OF THIS LINE WHICH IS
BEHIND H7 TROUGH WITH MUCH DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE PRESIDING.

CLOUDINESS AND INCREASED SFC DEWPOINTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM
WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS MILD TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR
50 AND HIGHS WEDNESDAY HELD TO THE UPPER 60S NCTRL TO LOWER 70S
SOUTHWEST 70. A FURTHER WARMUP TO THE MID 70S THURSDAY WITH MAINLY
SUNNY SKIES AND PREVAILING LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS. THESE HIGHS MAY
END UP A FEW DEGREES HIGHER WITH H85 TEMPS FROM 16C NORTHEAST TO
NEAR 20C SOUTHWEST.

CONTINUED MILD INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR DAY 4 /FRIDAY/
AND DAY 5 /SATURDAY/ AS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT
MOVING INTO FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY SUGGESTS A SLIGHTLY COOLDOWN
TO THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE SUNDAY NIGHT TO
BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT AND
UPPER TROUGH FOR MONDAY WITH HIGHS COOLING TO NEAR CLIMATOLOGY IN
THE UPPER 50S NCTRL TO LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VISUAL FLIGHT RULES OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES
WILL CONTINUE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA TONIGHT WITH WINDS UNDER 10KTS
TONIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WITH A LOW LEVEL 30KT JET AROUND
850MB. SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 MPH ON TUESDAY
MORNING WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH OVER NORTHERN NEBRASKA. MVFR
CEILINGS MAY BE ENCOUNTERED OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AROUND SUNRISE
TUESDAY MORNING BUT SHOULD BE BRIEF.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...POWER





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