Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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014
FXUS62 KMFL 182123
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
423 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Over the next several days, the weather will be quiet under high
pressure.

The next threat of active weather will begin Sunday. This will
come from a 500mb low that will form as a lee side trough over
the Texas panhandle Saturday afternoon. this low will then quickly
track to the eats southeast, and an associated sfc low will
develop. This system will interact with a baroclinic zone, and an
area of moisture, left over from an old boundary, over the
southeast US. this will cause the low to deepen quickly as it
moves over the deep south. A cold front will develop over the Gulf
coast and Gulf of Mexico on Sunday, not too far west of SOuth
Florida. this front will quickly move to the east, and will
quickly increase the chances of rain Sunday morning into Sunday
afternoon, and then the threat of thunderstorms from Sunday
afternoon, through early Monday morning. Models have speed up the
frontal passage from yesterday, now having the front through the
CWA by 12z Monday. There is still a great deal of uncertainty with
this system, as to the exact timing, and how strong any
convection will be. it could range from just some showers, up to a
full blown squall line. This should become more clear over the
next several days. Models are indicating the wind could be strong,
creating impacts for the Gulf coastal areas of South Florida.
This may also have significant impacts for marine interests. This
will be addressed more in the marine section.

Behind the front, temperatures will be cooler and somewhat drier.
The dew points only drop into the 50s on Tuesday. The remainder of
the forecast period looks to be fairly quiet.

&&

.MARINE...
Through the end of the week, no significant marine concerns. By
Saturday, models are indicating the wind will increase to around
15 kts, out of the South. On Sunday, an approaching cold front is
forecast to significantly increase the southerly wind across all
SOuth Florida waters. models are indicating that the wind could
potentially reach to gale force by Monday morning in the coastal
Atlantic waters. Even if the sustained does not reach that
strength, gusts to gale force will be possible. This will cause
rough seas and hazardous marine conditions for all South Florida
waters from Sunday afternoon through at least monday, if not
tuesday and Wednesday. Wave heights could reach to between 10 and
15 feet in both the Gulf and Atlantic waters. this would also
cause a high risk of rip currents for the gulf coast, and may
possible bring concerns for beach erosion, and maybe some minor
coastal flooding.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions under high pressure is forecast through the TAF
period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  63  82  63  82 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  66  81  66  81 /   0   0   0   0
Miami            66  82  65  81 /   0   0   0   0
Naples           60  79  62  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&


DISCUSSION...13
MARINE...13








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