Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 271422
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1022 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Have re-evaluated the forecast including this mornings sounding,
modified for expected temps this afternoon. Also, the HRRR is
poorly initializing with the showers and isolated thunderstorm
over the Atlantic. Given this, have bumped PoPs over the Palm
Beach area, and went somewhat higher in the interior, still
maintaining the westward tendency, but still can not rule out
activity over the Atlantic coastal areas either. If the sounding
is modified by also adding slightly more sfc moisture, it becomes
more favorable for convection, including a slight possibility of
small hail and possible thunderstorm wind gusts in the 40 to 45
mph range, with a localized stronger gust possible. The PWATs are
still low enough that flooding does not look to be an issue today,
although typical ponding of water may still occur.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 903 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016/

UPDATE...
Moisture is slowly increasing today, as evidenced by the isolated
showers along the Atlantic coast and the southern tip of the area.
Also, dew points are back into the mid to upper 60s this morning.
Skies are pretty much clear over the mainland, which should allow
for daytime heating to occur enough for the east coast sea breeze
to develop, which is forecast to allow a slight chance of showers
and thunderstorms for this afternoon. Have adjusted PoPs some to
show the trend of pushing them more interior this afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 746 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016/

AVIATION...
High pressure will continue to bring mostly quiet weather to South
Florida today. There may be some isolated showers through the day.
in the morning, they may move onshore, but by the late morning,
early afternoon, they will be more interior. Given the low
confidence, low impact, and probable short duration of any
showers, have no mention of weather in the TAFs for today. VFR
conditions will prevail through the TAF period.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 334 AM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016/

Summer weather pattern for South Florida this Memorial Day
weekend...

SHORT TERM...
The weather pattern is in a blocky pattern over the United States,with
a trough of low pressure over the western United States and a
ridge of high pressure over the eastern United States. At the
same time, a mid to upper level low was centered over The Bahamas with
a tropical disturbance just to the east.

This weather pattern will not change much through the weekend, as
the trough will remain over the western United States with the
ridge over the Eastern United States. This will keep the upper
level low over the Bahama Islands which in turn will guide the
tropical disturbance to the west northwest or northwest towards
the southeastern United States.

This weather pattern will allow for both the east and west coast
sea breezes to develop along both coast each afternoon focusing
the scattered shower and thunderstorm activity over the interior
areas. The moisture will also be on a slow increase through the
weekend over South Florida.

LONG TERM...
The long range models are showing that the blocky pattern will
start to break down slowly early next week and we should be back
to more of a zonal flow by late next week. This means that the
upper level low over The Bahamas should dissipate, allowing for
the Bermuda ridge to build westward into the Florida Peninsula.
This will cause the wind flow over South Florida to become more
easterly early to middle of next week, focusing the best coverage
of showers and thunderstorms over the interior and west coast
metro areas. However, the east coast metro areas could still see
isolated showers and thunderstorms anytime.

MARINE...
The winds will be 10 knots or less from the northeast today
before swinging to an easterly direction on Saturday. The winds
will then become southerly on Sunday at 5 knots or less. This will
keep the seas at 4 feet or less today into this weekend over both
the Atlantic and Gulf waters of South Florida. There is a moderate
risk for rip currents along Atlantic beaches today, but the
threat of rip currents may be low along both coast of South
Florida this weekend. This risk could increase some along the
Atlantic Beaches for Memorial Day due to stronger easterly wind
flow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  86  75  88  74 /  50  20  30  20
Fort Lauderdale  87  76  88  76 /  20  20  20  20
Miami            88  75  89  75 /  20  20  30  20
Naples           90  71  90  71 /  40  20  30  20

&&

.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....54/BNB



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