Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 270139
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
939 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
POPS ADJUSTED TO REFLECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OFF NAPLES...AND
BAHAMANIAN STREAMER SHOWERS IMPACTED PALM BEACH COUNTY. BY
MIDNIGHT...ALL PCPN SHOULD BE FINISHED FOR THE NIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 744 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

AVIATION...
A FEW SHRA WILL CONTINUE NEAR KAPF THROUGH 01Z BEFORE MOVING WEST
OF THE TERMINAL AND DISSIPATING. SURFACE WIND WILL REMAIN E 6-10
KNOTS ALL TERMINALS INCREASING AFT 14Z WEDNESDAY WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS OF 20 KNOTS OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER.

KOB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 251 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT, HAS KEPT THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA, AND WILL
CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME DRIER AIR IS WORKING
ITS WAY INTO THE AREA, WHICH HAS REDUCED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA, AS WELL AS REDUCED THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE
GULF SEA BREEZE LOOKS TO HAVE TROUBLE DEVELOPING IN THE STRONG
EAST FLOW, BUT IF IT DOES, IT WILL NOT PROGRESS FAR INLAND. BUT,
IT MAY INTERACT WITH THE ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE NEAR THE GULF COAST,
AND COULD POSSIBLY INITIATE STRONGER CONVECTION, INCLUDING
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM.

THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WILL ALSO KEEP A HIGHER RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW,
AND POSSIBLY THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. ALSO, ANY CONVERGENCE
LINES COMING OFF THE BAHAMAS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME BRIEF WATERSPOUTS
TO FORM.

THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. BY LATE
THURSDAY, MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN TO THE AREA. THIS WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SOUTH
FLORIDA. FRIDAY, POPS GO UP TO AROUND 30, BUT FOR THE WEEKEND,
MODELS ARE INDICATING A 50 TO 55 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY FOR THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST.ALSO, DURING
THIS TIME, THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN
SOME, WHICH IS ALSO HELPING TO INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION INTO NEXT WEEK.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL KEEP A STRONG EAST
FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTH FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, AND PROBABLY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
KEEP SOME ROUGH SURF ALONG THE BEACHES, AS WELL AS KEEP WAVE
HEIGHTS IN THE 3 TO 4 FT RANGE IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND THE
OFFSHORE GULF WATERS. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MAYBE A
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BUT, FOR THE
MOST PART, QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER MOST OF THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  87  74  86 /  10  20  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  78  85  76  86 /  10  20  20  20
MIAMI            77  87  76  86 /  10  20  10  20
NAPLES           71  91  70  90 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR FLZ168-
     172-173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...23/SK
LONG TERM....13/SI


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