Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 270533 AAD
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
133 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2016

.AVIATION...
The winds will remain easterly today with speeds of 5 knots or
less early this morning increasing to 10 to 15 knots after 14Z
today over the east coast taf sites. For APF taf site...the winds
will also remain easterly at 5 knots or less early this morning
increasing to 5 to 10 knots after 14Z today. The weather will
remain dry at KAPF taf site until 14Z, then VCSH until 18Z
followed by VCTS for the afternoon hours. For the east coast taf
sites, VCSH will remain in the taf sites until 14Z then VCTS for
the afternoon hours. The ceiling and vis will remain in the VFR
conditions today at all of the taf sites. However, the ceiling and
vis could fall down into MVFR or even IFR conditions with any
passage of showers or thunderstorms.

&&
AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1056 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016/

UPDATE...
As of 1055 PM EDT...Quick update to the forecast to better adjust
PoPs across South Florida for tonight. Over the next few hours, a
leftover stratiform rain shield with a few embedded thunderstorms from
earlier stronger convection this evening will continue over the
local Gulf waters, while additional scattered showers and
thunderstorms affect mainly the local Atlantic waters and portions
of the east coast metro. After midnight, the best chance for
additional scattered showers and storms will be over the Atlantic
waters and into the east coast metro area. Rest of forecast is in
good shape with only minor tweaks to account for the latest
observations.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 753 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016/

AVIATION...
Scattered showers and at least isolated thunderstorms will
continue tonight and through the weekend. For now, have kept VCSH
prevailing through the period for all eastern terminals. For
Naples, activity should diminish overnight, with VCSH by mid-
morning, and VCTS during the afternoon. Winds will be east-
northeast at 5-10 knots tonight, then 10-15 knots Saturday. May
need to include higher gusts during the afternoon, but for now not
placed in TAFs. Previous few days have had late day Gulf Breeze
impact KAPF, but with slightly stronger easterly flow, this
appears unlikely Saturday.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 739 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016/

UPDATE...
Very strong thunderstorms were observed over the Gulf coast and
coastal waters just west of Naples early in the evening.
Thunderstorm activity is still expected tonight, but mainly
scattered in nature and favoring the eastern half of South
Florida. Current Pop/weather grids look good and no significant
changes are required for the evening update attm.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 543 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Tonight-Saturday...A broad upper level ridge remains well in
place across much of the SE states, while sfc high pressure
centered over the mid Atlantic is keeping a generally northeasterly
and easterly flow across the area. Meanwhile, an approaching
tropical wave, currently located just east of Cuba, will bring
even more deep tropical moisture into South Florida through
Saturday. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to continue
tonight with best chances along the east coast metro areas across
the lake region.

Model and sounding data continues to show higher than normal
PWATS, over 2 inches, continuing through Saturday, and likely into early
next week. Expect periods of frequent lightning and locally heavy
rainfall with the strongest cells. The tropical airmass will keep
conditions humid and muggy.

Sunday-Wednesday...the latest National Hurricane Center Tropical
Weather Outlook valid at 2 pm, shows the aforementioned tropical
wave near Cuba as having a 30 percent probability of tropical
development during the next couple of days, and a 60 percent
chance through the next 5 days as atmospheric conditions around
the system could become more favorable for development later in
the weekend.

The combination of the ridge to the north, the high pressure far
ne of Florida, the prevailing easterly flow and the passage of the
wave to the south of the area will result in an extended period of
wet and occasionally breezy conditions across South Florida
through Tuesday. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
will accompany extended periods of cloudy skies, along with
potential for heavy rain. The rainfall forecast will continue to
depend on the eventual solution for the tropical wave, with local
and global model estimates showing possible accumulations of 4
inches or higher for the Sunday to Tuesday timeframe. This may
lead to some flooding events.

Residents and visitors to South Florida should continue to
closely monitor the products of the National Hurricane Center and
National Weather Service in Miami over the next few days to stay
alert for any potential impacts to South Florida from the tropical
wave currently located near eastern Cuba. The South Florida
forecast will continue to be adjusted with upcoming model
guidance.

Rip current risk will continue to remain at least Moderate through
saturday, with potential for high risk on Sunday and into early
next week.

MARINE...
Northeast to easterly flow will prevail over the local Atlantic
and Gulf waters tonight, then veering to a more easterly flow
through the rest of the weekend. Winds will generally be 10-15
knots through Saturday, increasing to 15-20 knots by Sunday. Seas
will increase to 3-6 feet over the local Atlantic waters with an
easterly swell of 1-2 feet, and 2-4 feet over the local Gulf
waters for this weekend. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will
continue through early next week, with rough seas and locally
gusty winds with any thunderstorm that forms.

There continues to remain considerable uncertainty for winds and
seas late this weekend and into early next week as a tropical
wave near eastern Cuba moves closer to the area. Please consult
the products of the National Hurricane Center and our latest
forecasts for additional information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  81  90  78  88 /  50  70  60  70
Fort Lauderdale  80  88  77  87 /  60  70  70  70
Miami            79  89  76  87 /  60  70  70  70
Naples           76  92  76  88 /  20  70  50  70

&&

.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...92/IRL
LONG TERM....17/AR
AVIATION...54/BNB



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