Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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481
FXUS62 KMFL 060053
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
753 PM EST Mon Dec 5 2016

.AVIATION...
SSE winds this evening becoming south 8-10kts overnight.
Conditions are favorable for MVFR cig development at most sites
overnight. Confidence has increased given periods of MVFR cigs
this afternoon and tempo conditions last night. Have included cigs
FL020 between 06Z-14Z at all sites. Winds veer SSW increasing to
12-15kts G20kts after 14Z tomorrow with approach of front.
Prevailing cigs improve to VFR, but tempo MVFR cigs may continue.
VCSH in all sites for Tues afternoon, as better rain chances look
to be late in the TAF period or Tues Night.


&&

.UPDATE...
Southeast winds will continue to veer more southerly tonight
advecting warmer air into South Florida tonight. Temperatures
remain in the upper 70s at this time and expect temps to only
lower a few degrees more tonight keeping very warm lows across
S Fl. Most locations could see record warm low temperatures
tonight. A few showers will also be possible tonight with cloudy
conditions. The forecast remains on track with no change needed
at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 630 PM EST Mon Dec 5 2016/

AVIATION...SSE winds this evening becoming south 8-10kts
overnight. Conditions are favorable for MVFR cig development at
most sites overnight. Confidence has increased given periods of
MVFR cigs this afternoon and tempo conditions last night. Have
included cigs FL020 between 06Z-14Z at all sites. Winds veer SSW
increasing to 12-15kts G20kts after 14Z tomorrow with approach of
front. Prevailing cigs improve to VFR, but tempo MVFR cigs may
continue. VCSH in all sites for Tues afternoon, as better rain
chances look to be late in the TAF period or Tues Night.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 322 PM EST Mon Dec 5 2016/

DISCUSSION...Latest water vapor imagery shows low pressure system
centered over southwest Texas will travel east-northeast across
southeast plains tonight into Tuesday. The associated cold front
will approach south Florida Tuesday into Wednesday. The remainder
of today remains cap with low pressure further west limiting the
potential of much rain. This front will bring an increase in
showers and slight chance of thunderstorms mainly over the western
and northern counties. The deeper moisture will be moving over
the region Tuesday which will be the best time scattered showers
over the area. Expect southeast winds to gradually shift south and
southwest as the system moves closer to Florida panhandle by
middle of the week. Air mass still remains warm and humid the
remainder of today into tonight keeping warm temperatures up to 10
to 15 degrees above normal across the area through Tuesday night.
The front will then stall as weakening low exits the east coast
into the North Atlantic waters. This will continue to provide
cloudy conditions with chance of showers through the end of the
week.

A stronger cold front with arctic air mass origin will push through
the region into Friday bringing colder and drier air mass behind it.
This system will push weak stationary boundary further south and
filter in drier air into South Florida. Low temperatures could drop
into the low 40s Friday night over interior and western areas of South
Florida, and upper 50s to lower 60s along the southeast coast. High
temperatures might struggle to reach the 70s Friday and Saturday.
Overnight low temps Saturday will be a few degrees below normal.
The air mass should begin to moderate on Sunday with highs back
into the upper 70s to low 80s.

MARINE...Southeast winds will continue to veer south and
southwest early portion of the week increasing continuing SCEC
conditions through mid week. A front will stall over South Florida
subsiding winds but increasing the potential for showers and a
few thunderstorms over the Atlantic and Gulf waters by mid week. a
strong front will push through the area by the end of the week
bringing stronger winds and hazardous marine conditons during the
upcoming weekend.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  75  85  71  82 /  20  20  20  20
Fort Lauderdale  77  83  70  81 /  20  20  20  30
Miami            75  84  73  84 /  20  20  20  40
Naples           73  82  72  81 /  10  40  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

UPDATE...67/MT


AVIATION...88/ALM







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