Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 270746 AAD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
346 AM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017

Today through Friday: Upper trough over Southern GA and Northern FL
will move further south today into Friday before it gets pick up by
deepening trough along the northeast plains. This will erode the
ridge that has been over the area the last several days with a more
southerly flow expected today and southwest by Friday. Saharan dust
tracking through Cuba doesn`t look quite as robust as the previous
event, and models continue to move the bulk of it just to our south.
While we will be on the northern fridge of this airmass, it does
look to help reinforce the dry mid levels already in place. However,
there is still scattered showers and storms possible in the interior
and west with sea breezes. As steering flow shifts more towards the
southwest Friday, best chance of convection will be concentrated in
the interior and build to the east coast metro areas. This will also
limit the east sea breeze development on Friday. High temperatures
will remain above normal ranging from the low to mid 90s interior
and upper 80s along the immediate coasts. Dewpoints will lower into
the 70s today and Friday helping keep heat indices in the 100-107
range. Conditions will remain below advisory criteria at this time
for the remainder of the week.

This weekend and next week: Southwesterly flow prevails as upper
level low over the northeast plains deepens a trough along the
east coast. This trough is expected to remain in place through
next week, potentially digging as far south to Fl. The trough is
expected to drive an unseasonably robust surface front into the
state by early next week, potentially reaching as far south as
Lake Okeechobee. This will result in a wet period through the week
across South Florida, with a few more stronger storms possible as
temps aloft cool down.


Weakening ridge will keep winds southeasterly around 10 knots
through the end of the week, before veering more south-southwest
this weekend as a front sags into North Florida. Expect both the
Gulf and Atlantic seabreezes to develop today, with the Atlantic
breeze struggling to develop Friday as winds shift more southwest.
Afternoon showers and storms will generally remain over the interior,
with more isolated activity over the open waters during the nights
and morning. Coverage of showers and storms expected to increase
as we head into the weekend.


The winds will remain easterly at 5 to 10 knots early this morning
before increasing to around 10 knots during the day hours today. The
winds at KAPF taf site will remain light and variable through this
morning before becoming westerly around 10 knots this afternoon.
The weather should remain dry for the east coast taf sites today.
For KAPF taf site, VCSH will be between 06Z and 08Z early this
morning for the ongoing activity currently over the western areas of
South Florida and again after 18Z today. The ceiling and vis should
also remain in the VFR conditions for the east coast taf sites, but
could fall down into MVFR conditions with any passage of showers.


West Palm Beach  93  80  95  79 /  10  20  50  30
Fort Lauderdale  93  82  93  80 /  20  30  40  30
Miami            94  81  93  79 /  20  30  40  30
Naples           93  78  93  79 /  30  20  20  30



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