Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 242011

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
411 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017

...Rip Current and High Surf threat increasing this week...

Low pressure remains aloft over the Gulf of Mexico as Hurricane
Maria continues northward to the east of the Bahamas. This pattern
will change little as the work week kicks off. One shift will be
the introduction of drier air coming down into the peninsula of
Florida from the Appalachians. This drier air should help reduce
the convective coverage across a good portion of the area, though
boundary collisions from sea breezes and remnant boundaries will
still provide lift that could tap into available moisture to
produce some showers and thunderstorms.

Later in the week, Maria will continue her path northward and a
trough extending into the South Florida will bring some additional
moisture and increasing rain chances. We will have to monitor the
potential for a surface low to develop east of Florida near this
moisture boundary which could enhance shower and thunderstorm
chances mid to late week.


Main player along the Atlantic waters will be Hurricane Maria
which will create swell that pushes towards Florida as the storm
moves northward. This energy has the potential to create 7+ foot
seas along the Atlantic waters off Palm Beach County through much
of the week. The Small Craft Advisory has been extended through
late Wednesday and may need to be extended beyond that in the
coming days. The rest of the Atlantic waters will reach cautionary
criteria through much of the week.


Energy from Hurricane Maria will manifest itself along the
Atlantic coast of South Florida as the beaches will see a high
risk of Rip Currents. 6+ foot swell will combine with 12+ second
periods to create the potential of 10+ foot breakers along the
Palm Beach County coast. Accordingly, a High Surf Advisory has
been issued for coastal Palm Beach County highlighting the threat
of coastal erosion and dangerous surf conditions through much of
the week.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 128 PM EDT Sun Sep 24 2017/

Scattered showers and storms will be concentrated over the
interior however a few will be possible over the metro areas.
Therefore have left VCTS in the TAFs. Winds will be fairly light
out of the NE. However, winds will increase around any showers or
storms that move over the terminals. Overnight, wind will be
light and variable.


West Palm Beach  75  90  75  92 /  10  20  30  30
Fort Lauderdale  77  91  77  91 /  30  30  30  40
Miami            77  92  77  91 /  30  40  40  50
Naples           75  90  76  90 /  30  20  10  30


FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for FLZ168-172-

     High Surf Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Tuesday
     for FLZ168.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ650-670.



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