Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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160
FXUS63 KMPX 142114
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
314 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

LIGHT SNOW WILL END ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING AS THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF A SPLIT SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST OF THE FA. THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH OF THIS WAVE BROKE OFF EARLY THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN
IOWA AS A CLOSED LOW AND IS NOW NEAR CHICAGO. SNOW AMOUNTS
TONIGHT WILL BE LESS THAN AN INCH.

WITH LOW LEVEL WAA UNDERWAY...CLOUD COVER AND SOME SOUTHERLY
WINDS...TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL LITTLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA WITH LOWS NEAR 20. A LITTLE MORE OF
A DIURNAL TREND WILL BE NOTED ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WEST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE TEENS.

A DRY DAY ON MONDAY. CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER EXTENSIVE
WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY FORECAST. LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE WITH THE
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S IN PLACE. SOME MIDDLE 30S ARE EXPECTED IN WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AS DOWNSLOPE WINDS OCCUR OFF THE BUFFALO RIDGE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

THE MAIN THEME OF THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
QPF THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW WILL ADVANCE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONTANA AND THE DAKOTAS.  AT
THIS POINT...THE GFS AND ESPECIALLY THE EC WANT TO BRING THE FORCING
WITH THIS WAVE THROUGH EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND THROUGH
IOWA...CLIPPING FAR SOUTHWESTERN MN AND LEAVING THE REST OF THE AREA
DRY.  THE 12Z NAM CAME IN WITH A DIFFERENT DEPICTION...TAKING THE
STRONGEST LIFT RIGHT DOWN I-94 AND THROUGH THE METRO.  WE LEAN ON
THE GFS/EC SOLUTION AS THE NAM IS A FAST AND EASTERN OUTLIER...THE
FACT THAT THE 18Z NAM JUST CAME IN AND IS ALREADY SHIFTING SOUTHWEST
TOWARD THE GFS/EC COMPROMISE.  WENT WITH AROUND 0.10"-0.15" FOR QPF
ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE IN SOUTHWESTERN MN.  THERE MAY BE A WINTRY
MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET INITIALLY BEFORE TURNING TO ALL SNOW.
A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF ICE ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE IN EXTREME WESTERN
MN OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT.  IN TERMS OF SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...THINKING
1-2" IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BUFFALO RIDGE...WITH LITTLE TO NO
ACCUMULATION ACROSS EASTERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MIDWEEK WHILE THE JET MAKES A CHANGE TO A
RIDGING PATTERN PUSHING EAST.  BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BROAD WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL GET GOING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND POPS COME BACK
INTO THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AS STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST.  THIS LOOKS TO BE MAINLY RAIN AS LOW LEVEL WARM AIR AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL ALLOW DEW POINTS TO RISE INTO THE MID 30S
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE END OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND CERTAINLY LOOKS TO BE ABOVE NORMAL IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES
WITH THE JET BECOMING MORE ZONAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1144 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

A POTPOURRI OF CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT THE TAF SITES THIS
MORNING SHOULD YIELD TO MORE LOW MVFR/IFR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WITH IFR POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE DAKOTAS. CONFIDENCE ON THE IFR IS HIGHEST AT KAXN AND
KSTC. THERE WILL BE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE SNOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH TWO UPPER AIR FEATURES. THE
FIRST IS ALONG THE IA/IL BORDER AND MOVING QUICKLY SE WHILE THE
SECOND HAS PUSHED INTO WESTERN MN. IT/S THE SECOND FEATURE THAT
WILL DRIVE SOME IFR VSBY SNOW ACROSS CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON AND
FROM THE TWIN CITIES INTO WESTERN WI EARLY THIS EVENING.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE UP TO AN INCH. SE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON NEAR
10 KNOTS SLOWLY VEERING TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT WITH
SPEEDS DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS.

KMSP...ONE BAND OF SNOW STRETCHING FROM THE TWIN CITIES ON
SOUTHEAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AIRFIELD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH VSBYS IMPROVING TO MVFR BY 20Z IF NOT A LITTLE SOONER. A
SECOND AREA OF SNOW PUSHING THROUGH WESTERN MN WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF IFR VSBYS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON THIS WITH MVFR VSBYS INDICATED.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON AFTN...MVFR CIGS BCMG VFR. WIND W 10 KTS.
TUE...VFR WITH MVFR/-SN POSSIBLE. WIND NW 10 KTS.
WED...VFR. WIND E-SE 5KTS.
THU...VFR. WIND SE-15G22KTS

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAH
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...RAH



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