Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 010845
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
345 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS REMAIN TIMING OF THUNDER THREAT TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE EXITING THE EASTERN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING PER
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND LATEST SPS MESOSCALE ANALYSIS.  STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.5 C/KM AND MUCAPE AROUND 500 J/KG
CONTINUE TO GENERATE ISOLATED PULSE TYPE CONVECTION IN WEST CENTRAL
WI WITH SMALL HAIL INDICATED.  THIS SHOULD EXIT BEFORE 12Z.

ATMOSPHERE REMAINS RIPE FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE WHICH APPEARS TO BE MOVING INTO FAR NORTHERN MN AT THIS
TIME. THIS IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH AND EAST...AND WE SHOULD SEE
CONVECTION DEVELOP INTO CENTRAL MN BY 15Z...AND INTO EAST CENTRAL MN
AND MOST OF WC WISCONSIN AROUND 18Z OR SO.  WILL MENTION HIGH CHANCE
POPS FOR NOW...MUCH OF THIS AREA.  BULK LAYER SHEAR WILL BE LIMITED
BUT MUCAPE IS PROGGED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 2K J/KG DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH CONTINUED STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  LARGE HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS THAT DEVELOP...MAINLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA.  MAX TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM CLOSE TO YESTERDAYS VALUES AS THE TROUGH MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION.

THIS SHORT WAVE SHOULD EXIT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE
EVENING WITH A MORE DIURNAL TREND IN THE CONVECTION.  WITH GENERAL
CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER
MIDNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT FRI AUG 1 2014

SATURDAY LOOKS DRY WITH THE FRIDAY SHORT WAVE WELL TO THE SOUTH.
THE NEXT WAVE TO WATCH WILL BE DROPPING INTO MINNESOTA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...BUT THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD NOT BE TOO
WIDESPREAD GIVEN IT/S NOCTURNAL ARRIVAL. COVERAGE MAY INCREASE A
BIT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE TAIL END LINGERS OVER ERN MN AND WRN
WI AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE AT LEAST SOME INSTABILITY.

UNCERTAINTY HAS BEGUN TO INCREASE AGAIN FOR NEXT WEEK...PARTICULARLY
FOR TUESDAY AND BEYOND. THE ECMWF HAD BEEN STABLE FOR MULTIPLE
RUNS BUT THE 01.00Z EDITION NOW FEATURES A MUCH DEEPER TROUGH OVER
NEW ENGLAND AND A SLIGHTLY BEEFIER RIDGE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA. THIS ESSENTIALLY LEADS TO THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT HAD
BEEN DRAPED NICELY FROM NODAK TO CENTRAL/SRN MN AND SRN WI...TO BE
POSITIONED FURTHER SOUTH FROM SODAK TO CENTRAL IA AND NRN IL. THIS
WOULD MEAN A DRIER FORECAST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA...EXCEPT
PERHAPS FAR SRN MN WHERE IT COULD ACTUALLY BE WETTER. NOT ONLY
DOES THE DEEPER TROUGH IN THE NORTHEAST RESULT IN A FURTHER SOUTH
FRONTAL POSITION...BUT IT WOULD ALSO DELAY THE MAIN WAVE FROM
EJECTING EASTWARD AS QUICKLY AND WOULD RESULT IN REPEATED SHOWER/STORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH DAY 7. THE GFS ENSEMBLES DID SUPPORT A
SOUTHWARD TREND TO SOME DEGREE...BUT NOT A FAR SOUTH AS THE ECMWF.
BECAUSE THIS IS A VERY RECENT DEVELOPMENT...OPTED TO STAY THE
COURSE FOR NOW AND AWAIT BETTER CONTINUITY WITH FUTURE SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1156 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUE OVER A SMALL AREA OF WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN AFFECTING THE KEAU AREA. THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
SHORT WAVE DRIFTING ACROSS THE AREA...WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES.  WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION VCSH FOR ABOUT AN HOUR INTO THE
TAF. THEN CLEARING EXPECTED. LIGHT WINDS AND SMALL TEMP/DEWPT
SPREADS COULD GENERATE SOME PATCHY MVFR VSBYS/FOG INTO WEST
CENTRAL WI/CENTRAL MN. WILL MENTION THAT POSSIBILITY AT KEAU/KRNH
AND KSTC FOR NOW...IN THE 10Z-13Z PERIOD. THEN THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
TO AFFECT MAINLY EASTERN AREAS IN THE 18Z-02Z PERIOD. WILL MENTION
A PROB30 THUNDER THREAT OVER THE EASTERN SITES FOR NOW. MAY HAVE
TO EXPAND FURTHER NORTHWEST IF WAVE SLOWS A BIT. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS WELL...PERHAPS MORE OF A NW-N WIND DIRECTION
AND LESS THAN 10KTS.

KMSP...VFR INTO FRIDAY WITH VCSH MENTIONED BEGINNING AT 19Z AND
PROB390 THUNDER MENTIONED FROM 19Z-23Z AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE DROPS
OVER THE AREA. SHOULD END BY 02Z WITH CLEARING THEREAFTER. LIGHT
WINDS INTO THE MORNING...BECOMING MORE NW-N DURING THE LATER
MORNING/AFTERNOON. THEY WILL SLACKEN INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS WELL.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS VARIABLE 5 KTS.
SUN...VFR. SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.
MON...VFR. CHANCE TSRA. WINDS SW 5-10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...BORGHOFF
AVIATION...DWE





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