Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 011023
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
523 AM CDT FRI JUL 1 2016

.updated for 12z aviation discussion below...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 223 AM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

The short term concerns are cloud extent today and cooler
temperatures into tonight.

Latest surface chart and satellite imagery showing some lower
clouds dropping slowly south with caa pattern over the region.
Strongest caa is located over western Wisconsin and may have to
hold onto clouds a bit longer this morning. Trend should be to
break up however...as drier air works south. Cool pocket of air at
h85 of +6 to +8C should yield max temperatures in the lower 70s in
western Wisconsin...with some mid 70s in western Minnesota.
Sunshine should be prevalent most areas with light winds as the
high pressure ridge slides southeast.

Tonight should be mostly clear with light winds becoming southeast
over the west. With the light winds and clear sky expected...at
least some patchy fog should develop to the east...especially in
the river valleys. We expect temperatures to cool into the upper
40s to the east with mid 50s to the west.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 223 AM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...The holiday weekend will be simply
fantastic due to the combination of surface high pressure and
northwest flow aloft prevailing throughout this period. The result
will be a mix of sun and mid-to-high clouds with seasonable
temperatures. The flow aloft will gradually transition from
northwest to slight ridging by Monday, which will make for
gradually warming temperatures during the weekend into early next
week. Highs will rise from the mid- upper 70s Saturday-Sunday to
the lower 80s on Monday.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...The upper level ridge will shift off to
the east by daybreak Tuesday which will be in conjunction with
surface high pressure also vacating to the east. In their place,
upper level flow becomes more WSW-ESE and progressive, allowing a
pair of quick-moving frontal systems to drift through the region
Tuesday-Wednesday and then Thursday into Friday. The warming trend
is expected to continue given the more pronounced southerly low
level flow and the influx of a warmer airmass from the
southwestern states. Highs will climb through the 80s and even hit
some lower 90s in southwestern Minnesota in the latter half of the
week. As for precipitation, it is a bit problematic to pin down
one time period over another as for which would be the main focus
of timing for showers/thunderstorms. However, with temperatures
rising into the upper 80s with dewpoints around 70, the increased
instability combined with either frontal lift and/or speed maxes
aloft could be conducive to heavy rain and/or strong thunderstorms
from time to time. The overall severe threat still looks fairly
low but it is non-zero.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 520 AM CDT Fri Jul 1 2016

Mainly VFR across mn portion of the forecast area. We could see a
period of mvfr cigs over eastern areas this morning before
becoming vfr which should last through 06z Sat. Fog will be a
possibility mainly in the river valleys of western Wisconsin as
winds will be light. Mentioned some BR at KEAU late tonight.
otherwise n-ne winds becoming light/variable over Wisconsin and
light se-s over western Minnesota tonight.

KMSP...Expect VFR conditions to prevail this period. Some
2500-3500 ft clouds around a few hours this morning...but
confidence is low on if a deck becomes bkn or not. It would last
perhaps a hour mainly early in period. Winds will be n-ne and
light today. Otherwise we should be skc-sct250 tonight with light
se-s wind developing.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sat nite...VFR. Wind SE at 5 kt.
Sun...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kt.
Mon...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kt.
Tue...vfr. chc -trw. Wind s 7-10 kts.

&&

.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...JPC
AVIATION...DWE



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