Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 181700

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1100 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017




Latest surface observations show unusually warm and windy
conditions across Middle Tennessee this morning with temperatures
in the mid 50s to mid 60s and winds gusting up to 35 mph. High
temperatures well into the 60s and even lower 70s still seem
reasonable despite all the cloud cover due to the strong WAA
ongoing. South to southwest winds will also continue to increase
into the afternoon as the LLJ strengthens up to 55 knots and a
strong cold front approaches from the northwest, with gusts up to
45 mph expected at times. As noted in the Wind Advisory, could
very well see a few trees or power lines knocked down from these
gusty winds today.

Numerous showers are noted across western Kentucky this morning,
and some showers will begin to break out across western parts of
Middle Tennessee later this morning into the afternoon as WAA
continues and dewpoints rise into the 60s. Latest HRRR model runs
remain in excellent agreement on a line of strong to severe
thunderstorms moving rapidly across the forecast area from 20Z to
01Z. Based on this timing, removed mention of thunderstorms for
the morning period and tweaked pops into tonight. Forecast
soundings show MLCAPE rising up to nearly 500 J/Kg by this
afternoon with very intense deep layer shear up to 80 knots,
which will be favorable for a few storms to have damaging winds
as well as the potential for a QLCS tornado. SPC continues to
show the entire area in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms



MVFR cigs and gusty south to southwest winds up to 35 knots will
affect airports this afternoon ahead of a strong cold front. Fropa
expected from 20Z-02Z with TSRA and MVFR/IFR conditions. Winds
will switch to northwest after fropa with continued MVFR cigs
until late tonight.


Wind Advisory until midnight CST tonight for Bedford-Cannon-
Cheatham-Clay-Coffee-Cumberland-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-



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