Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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000
FXUS64 KOHX 120526
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1126 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TRENDS ARE ON THEIR WAY UP IN REGARDS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT INTO THE
MORNING HOURS FRIDAY. DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR THE NORTHEAST AS CURRENT FORECAST UPDATE SHOWS AROUND AN INCH
WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE ADVISORY AREA. THE 00Z
NAM SHOWED A MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE SNOW BAND MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT...AND IF THE TREND CONTINUES WITH THE
OTHER MODELS...ADVISORY SNOW LOOKS MORE LIKELY. THE ADVISORY MAY
NEED TO BE EXPANDED SOUTH AND WEST IF THE DEVELOPING SNOW BAND
IMPACTS THOSE AREAS. FOR NOW...WILL JUST CONTINUE THE SPS FOR THE
REMAINING ZONES. UPDATED THE FORECAST TO MATCH CURRENT OBS AS
WELL. UPDATES ON THE WAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

SHORTWAVE RIDING DOWN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO
MIDDLE TN DURING THE MORNING HOURS. CSV HAS THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY
OF BEING AFFECTED BY SOME OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS. CONFIDENCE AT BNA
AND CKV IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH ATTM TO INCLUDE MENTION OF SN IN TAF.
AFTER SHORTWAVE PASSES MVFR CIGS WILL LINGER. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL WORK SOUTH THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE WHICH WILL INCREASE
WINDS TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
PICK UP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO NOON CST FRIDAY FOR CLAY-
FENTRESS-JACKSON-MACON-OVERTON-PICKETT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........10/REAGAN
LONG TERM..................06/BARNWELL


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