Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 291112
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
612 AM CDT Mon May 29 2017

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Quiet day yesterday across the mid state as convection just could
not get going in the afternoon. Some convection has developed
south of the area and looks to spill over northward to impact
southern and eastern zones today. Have slight chance and chance
pops mainly south of I-40 and on the southern half of the Plateau
as the cold front becomes more of a stationary boundary as it
stalls a bit today. Some instability and shear remain for the far
south, so it will be possible for some storms to gain a bit of
strength this afternoon and early evening. As another lobe of the
upper closed low over the Great Lakes swings eastward, the front
should move out of the area and dry conditions will briefly return
to the mid state overnight tonight.

Monday night into Tuesday will be mainly dry, but chances for
showers and thunderstorms will return mainly for the afternoon on
Tuesday. Models do not completely agree on location and timing as
the upper trough is still well to the north, but enough of a
chance exists to toss in mention for the later part of Tuesday.
Overnight Tuesday into Wednesday looks to be dry for the most part
before another round of precip chances moves in on Wednesday.
Another lobe of the upper closed low will swing a bit further
south, and may be enough to kick off a few daytime showers and
thunderstorms over the area. Keeping with the trend of the
previous few days, the evening and overnight hours will again be
dry into Thursday morning.

On Thursday, the upper low north of the region will progress
eastward finally, but chances for precip will increase later on
Thursday as a shortwave trough crosses through the southern Plains
towards the southeast US. This will be the start of a series of
shortwaves that will bring showers and thunderstorms to the mid
state through next weekend. Friday through early Monday morning
looks to be pretty wet with the active pattern, and surprisingly
models have very similar upper level and QPF solutions. Not
confident enough for likely pops out this far, but have high
chance pops in for Friday through Sunday night for now. Models
begin to diverge after next weekend, so will be interesting to see
if this active pattern sticks around or see if some drier weather
moves in to the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR at BNA/CSV with brief MVFR/IFR at CKV due to fog early this
morning. Scattered low clouds with thick cirrus expected this TAF
period at all airports. A few showers will pass south of CSV by
this afternoon but should remain far enough away and will not
include VCSH. Light southwest to west winds anticipated.


&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......Barnwell
AVIATION........Shamburger


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