Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 212007
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
307 PM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Upper high positioned just to the west of the mid state this
afternoon. Current temps are in the lower to mid 90s, except a few
upper 80s along the Plateau. Mav guidance is going 79 at BNA and is
apparently overdoing the heat island influence. WIll undercut this
value, accept the xmas in July gift, and move on.

Despite a slight decrease in the strength of the upper high on
Saturday, thermal w-e ridging will expand eastward. Convection
chances do increase a touch but that will likely hold off until the
afternoon. Thus, another hot day in store with a continuation of the
heat advisory included. Looks like upper 90s again with HI values of
101 to 105 west of Plateau.

Southward moving frontal boundary now appears to be more
disorganized. The southerly extent of the weakening boundary looks
questionable but we do see an increase in low level forcing on
Sunday and Monday, especially. Will therefore continue with the
increasing pop trend. Sunday will see temps back down just a few
degrees and will not extend the heat advisory into Sunday at this
time.

In the extended, models elude toward the development of a height
elevated upper wave. The Euro develops this feature upstream and is
in turn, wetter, while the gfs develops the impulse closer to our
area. Models have also back down a touch from the cool down so will
need to trend back up. Dewpoints will look more comfortable,
however, with near 70 values and an end to the triple digit HI
values.


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Mainly VFR conditions for this TAF cycle. There could be some IFR
vis around daybreak Saturday at all 3 terminals, but should be
fairly short lived.

Winds will be light and variable this afternoon, calm tonight and
light again on Saturday as high pressure dominated the mid-state.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      76  97  77  94  75 /  10  20  20  50  50
Clarksville    75  96  76  93  73 /  10  20  20  40  50
Crossville     71  90  72  87  72 /  20  30  20  50  50
Columbia       75  95  76  92  74 /  10  20  20  50  50
Lawrenceburg   75  95  75  92  73 /  10  30  20  50  50
Waverly        75  96  76  93  73 /  10  20  20  50  50

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday FOR Bedford-Cheatham-
Davidson-Dickson-Giles-Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-Lawrence-Lewis-
Macon-Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Perry-Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-
Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Wayne-Williamson-Wilson.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......21
AVIATION........Unger



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