Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 212048
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
248 PM CST Sat Jan 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...

Rain moved off the Cumberland Plateau around noon today, with
decreasing clouds thereafter. Sunshine allowed temperatures to
rise into the 60s, and by 2 pm, the mercury was pushing 70 degrees
at the Nashville airport. Not bad, for the middle of January,
that`s for sure.

A warm front is still expected to lift northward tonight and
early Sunday, bringing along a band of showers and thunderstorms.
A few of those storms could be severe with large hail and gusty
winds. Forecast wet bulb zero values around 7,500 ft indicate a
decent potential for large hail, and with winds in the 925-850mb
layer between 25 and 35 mph, we could be seeing some brief strong
wind gusts as well.

The likelihood for thunderstorms will continue through the day on
Sunday, as an upper low moves from southern Arkansas to northern
Alabama, and a surface low tracks slowly eastward along quasi-
stationary front over southern Kentucky. Can`t rule out a few
strong thunderstorms, with hail and gusty winds, firing up again
on Sunday as atmosphere becomes more thoroughly saturated and our
unstable layer deepens.

Showers remain likely over most of our CWA Sunday night, then
taper off from the west on Monday and Monday night, as slow-
moving upper low finally pushes across Virginia and takes band of
backside moisture with it. Winds start to kick up out of the
northwest Sunday night and Monday as a cold front sweeps through,
with wind gusts to 25 to 30 mph possible.

By Tuesday morning, cooler air will be filtering in from the
north, with sunrise temperatures forecast to be in the middle and
upper 30s.


.LONG TERM...

Tuesday and Tuesday night of next week look to be dry and mild,
with surface flow becoming southerly once again. However, by
Wednesday and Wednesday night a weak frontal system moves in and
brings along an increase in clouds and at least a small chance for
showers.

Still looks like a turn toward colder, more seasonable winter
weather, for the latter days of the extended period--Thursday through
Saturday. Upper trough deepens over the eastern United States and
high temperatures drop into the middle 30s to middle 40s.
Relatively high amounts of 1000-850mb moisture come along with the
cooler air, with at least a broken deck of stratocu clouds will
likely occur for much of that period. Weak ripples in the upper
flow will allow for at least a small chance for mixed
precipitation along the Cumberland Plateau Thursday night and
Friday, where lows will be in the upper 20s and highs in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Precipitation from a surface wave will be moving out of CSV over
the next hour. Afterwards, all three terminals will experience VFR
conditions until tonight as a sfc low develops to the west and a
developing warm front moves through the terminals. Elevated
instability is enough to include TS at all three terminals for a
few hours. Convective allowing high res models shows a break in
rain and storms by mid morning and likely an eventual return to
VFR ceilings for the remainder of the TAF period. Winds will back
to the ESE during the evening hours before veering to the south
again after the passage of the warm front. Winds speeds should
mainly stay in the 5-10 kt range.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      55  63  47  52  37 /  90 100  70  30  10
Clarksville    54  63  44  51  35 /  80 100  60  20  10
Crossville     51  60  45  50  37 /  90 100  80  70  30
Columbia       55  62  46  52  36 /  90 100  70  20   0
Lawrenceburg   55  62  47  52  36 /  90 100  70  30   0
Waverly        55  61  43  51  36 /  90  90  60  20   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......19
AVIATION........Reagan


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