Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KOHX 230705
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
205 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...

COOLEST NIGHT SINCE MAY 19TH ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS MORNING
WITH CURRENT READINGS RANGING FROM A CHILLY 41 DEGREES AT SPARTA
TO 54 AT NASHVILLE. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT OR CALM WINDS THIS
MORNING...EXPECT LOWS TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 40S FOR NEARLY EVERYONE
WITH SOME UPPER 30S EVEN POSSIBLE IN THE TYPICALLY COLDER
LOCATIONS OF THE UPPER CUMBERLAND AND PLATEAU. A BIT OF PATCHY
FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE UPPER CUMBERLAND AROUND
SUNRISE...ALTHOUGH DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS LOOK TO REMAIN
SUFFICIENTLY LARGE FOR NOTHING SIGNIFICANT TO DEVELOP.

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
A WEAK AND DIFFUSE UPPER LEVEL PATTER TAKES HOLD OVER OUR
REGION...AND HAVE MADE FEW OVERALL CHANGES TO FORECAST OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS. GRADUAL WARMING TREND ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE WEEK
DUE TO DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...WHICH WILL LEAD TO LARGE DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE SWINGS WITH COOL NIGHTS IN THE 40S AND 50S AND HIGHS
IN THE 70S AND 80S. ADDED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG TO EASTERN ZONES
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT DUE TO EXPECTED LOWER
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS.

BY THE WEEKEND...00Z GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TREND OF DEVELOPING A
WEAK CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHICH OPENS UP AND
EJECTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID STATE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. BOTH
MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION AND TREND
SLOWER WITH PRECIP ARRIVAL INTO THE MID STATE...WITH ECMWF
DEPICTING A STRONGER TROUGH AND SUBSEQUENT SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT
BUT GFS INDICATING A WEAKER TROUGH AND NO SUCH FEATURE. HAVE
DISREGARDED EMCWF FOR NOW AS ITS EVOLUTION OF FEATURES SEEMS
RATHER UNUSUAL...AND HAVE KEPT LOW POPS FOR THE SUNDAY/MONDAY
TIMEFRAME MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE TO
NON EXISTENT INSTABILITY AND K INDEX VALUES STRUGGLE TO REACH THE
30S...SO ANY THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE ISOLATED AT BEST AND WILL
ONLY MENTION POSSIBILITY ON MONDAY. CLOUD COVER AND ANY PRECIP
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS COOLER FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY...AND TRENDED TEMPS
LOWER FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      78  51  81  54 /   0   0   0   0
CLARKSVILLE    76  48  80  52 /   0   0   0   0
CROSSVILLE     74  47  75  50 /   0   0   0   0
COLUMBIA       79  51  80  54 /   0   0   0   0
LAWRENCEBURG   80  52  80  54 /   0   0   0   0
WAVERLY        77  50  80  53 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHAMBURGER




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.