Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 232221

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
321 PM PDT Sun Oct 23 2016


Breezy conditions are expected this evening and again Monday as
low pressure moves into the Pacific Northwest. Some rain is
expected into Northeast California Tuesday morning into Tuesday
night. More widespread rain with high elevation snow is possible
late in the week, but forecast confidence is low regarding amounts
and timing.



Winds have been stubborn to increase on valley surfaces north of
Highway 50, but there as some breezy conditions from around
Johnson Lane southward through Mono County. Gusts generally have
been around 30 mph keeping the current Fire Weather Warning for
southern Mono County and area Lake Wind Advisories on track. We
still expect an increase in breezes through the afternoon for
valleys that haven`t seen much this afternoon. Winds will increase
further Monday as 700mb flow increases with gusts projected from
30 up to 45 mph. The more southerly orientation of flow will
create gusty conditions for some wind prone locations like the
stretch of highway 395 from Doyle to Janesville; high profile
vehicles may have difficulties.

Otherwise, only minor adjustments were made to the previous
forecast. Winds should remain southerly overnight keeping valleys
from radiating heat out completely. Temperatures were bumped up a
few degrees with continued mixing expected. Overnight lows will be
in the mid/upper 40s for western Nevada and mid/upper 30s for the

Low pressure is still expected to shift towards the Pacific
Northwest Monday afternoon into Tuesday. A frontal band of
precipitation will move into Northeastern California and extreme
northwestern Nevada by late Monday afternoon. However, the parent
low will begin to track back northwestward resulting and a
weakening surface boundary limiting large scale forcing. This will
result in low precipitation totals only up to about 0.25-0.5 inches
of liquid west of highway 395 mainly north of Tahoe. Snow levels
will remain very high, above 9000ft, keeping snow from having any
appreciable impact.

A slight deviation from previous model runs depicts an area of
instability and moisture moving northward Monday. Precipitation
chances were increased along the Sierra and into the Basin and
Range south of Highway 395. There is sufficient lift to warrant a
mention of 10% chances of thunderstorms mainly for the White
Mountains and over terrain of Mineral County.

By late Tuesday night, large scale forcing and precipitation
chances will have shifted into Oregon. Light breezes and southerly
flow will remain as a secondary low pressure stalls off the
northern California coast. Boyd

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...

Dry weather is expected Wednesday as south-southwest flow aloft
continues in advance of next trough off the west coast. Mild
temperatures in the lower-mid 70s for lower elevations, and 60s
near the Sierra, with moderate breezes mainly in northeast CA-
Northwest NV are expected.

For Thursday and Friday, the trough moves inland across the
Pacific Northwest while another upper low moves into northern CA.
This system will pick up subtropical moisture and spread it across
much of eastern CA-western NV. While there still remains some timing
differences among the medium range guidance, the overall best chances
for precip are anticipated for Thursday night and Friday. There
could be a decent round of rain near the Sierra, with Alpine and
Mono Counties currently favored. For western NV and northeast
CA, shorter periods of light to moderate rain are possible. Snow
levels should remain fairly high, generally above 8500-9500 feet, so
only the highest Sierra passes will see any snow impacts. There
could be a period of breezy conditions Friday afternoon if the
trough exits quickly enough, but strong wind gusts are unlikely.

For next weekend, Saturday still looks like a generally dry day with
high temperatures near or slightly below average, mainly in the
60s for lower elevations and 50s near the Sierra. By Sunday, another
trough moves across the Pacific Northwest and northern CA. This
trough appears to be a bit weaker with a shorter duration of precip
compared to the Thursday/Friday system. However, there have been
variations with the strength of this system from the past few days of
model guidance, so we can`t rule out the possibility for it to be
stronger than our current projections. Snow levels again are likely
to be rather high, generally above 8000-8500 feet for the Sierra
near Tahoe, and even higher for Mono County, MJD



VFR conditions will continue into Monday before moisture moves
into the Sierra. There could be a period of MVFR ceilings for
TVL/TRK Monday afternoon through Tuesday, but moisture will be
more abundant north of Interstate 80. Expect mountain obscurations
and some icing/turbulence into and out of Sierra terminals.

Wind gusts 25-35 kts are expected this afternoon and Monday for
Sierra and far western Nevada terminals, highest in north- south
valleys (including KRNO/KTVL). A few higher gusts to 40 kts are
possible in and near the Sierra foothills, most likely on Monday.
Out in west- central NV, gusts are expected to top out in the
25-30 kts range.

As far as turbulence and shear, winds aloft will not be overly
favorable (more south than west) today for mountain wave turbulence.
However, winds will turn more westerly Monday bringing the potential
for stronger turbulence in the lee of the Sierra. There will
also be a chance for a low level wind over Sierra and far western NV
terminals within 2,000 feet AGL Monday morning, before we start to
mix later in the day. Hoon/Boyd


.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Monday NVZ005.

     Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT Monday for Lake Tahoe in

     Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Pyramid Lake
     in NVZ004.

     Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Monday NVZ004.

CA...Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Monday CAZ070-071.

     Red Flag Warning until 6 PM PDT this evening CAZ273.

     Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT Monday for Lake Tahoe in



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