Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 310959
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
259 AM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TODAY BEFORE A DRYING
TREND STARTS FRIDAY UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.
HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER NEVADA WITH SOME MOISTURE SEEPING
NORTHWARD FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

A SWATH OF LIGHT RADAR RETURNS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS
PERSHING AND CHURCHILL COUNTIES AS A WEAK VORTICITY IMPULSE PASSES
ACROSS THE REGION. SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE RUNNING ABOUT 30
DEGREES SO LIKELY MUCH OF THE RETURNS ARE FALLING AS VIRGA. CHANCE
FOR LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MORNING IN THESE
LOCATIONS BEFORE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL FILTER IN ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY SO EXPECTING THE REDUCTION IN CLOUD COVER TO ALLOW
CONVECTION TO INITIATE OVER THE SIERRA THEN DRIFT TOWARDS THE EAST
ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP HAVE THE POTENTIAL
FOR PRODUCING ISOLATED DRY LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 WHERE CAPES WILL BE GREATER THAN 1200 J/KG.

DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE WITH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ON
THE DECREASE THROUGH WEEKEND. POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN FOR ISOLATED
STORMS ON FRIDAY BUT MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN NEVADA BASIN AND
RANGE WITH CHANCES CONFINED MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN CHURCHILL,
PERSHING, AND MINERAL COUNTY ON SATURDAY. AFTERNOON ZEPHYR BREEZES
WILL ALSO RETURN WITH TEMPERATURES STEADILY CLIMBING A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL AS CLOUD COVER DIMINISHES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB
INTO THE MID AND UPPER 90S ACROSS WESTERN NEVADA BY FRIDAY AND MID
TO UPPER 80S ACROSS SIERRA VALLEYS. FUENTES


.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED. FLOW ALOFT IS WILL BE VERY
WEAK AND DISORGANIZED WITH MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST GOING
INTO NEXT WEEK. DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN NEVADA DURING THIS PERIOD, ALTHOUGH SOME CHANCES REMAIN FOR
CONVECTION IN WEST-CENTRAL NEVADA. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS A WEAK TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE PAC NW. THIS WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAINLY EAST OF
THE SIERRA CREST IN THE TYPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONES. EARLY NEXT WEEK
(AROUND MONDAY OR TUESDAY), THE OFFSHORE TROUGH RETROGRADES
SOUTHWESTWARD, ALLOWING FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY
OVER THE SIERRA WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CREEPING BACK INTO THE
RENO-TAHOE AREA. IT`S POSSIBLE THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY MOVE INTO
CA/NV LATE IN THE WEEK, FURTHER ENHANCING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
REGION. HOON

&&

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN FOR TODAY
WITH 20% OF THUNDERSTORMS DIRECTLY AFFECTING KRNO-KCXP-KTRK-KTVL.
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF KSVE, AND SOUTH OF
KCXP, INCLUDING KBAN AND KMMH. IN WEST-CENTRAL NEVADA, KNFL AND KLOL
ALSO HAVE A 30% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DIRECTLY AFFECTING THE
TERMINALS.

ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SMALL HAIL
AND DOWNBURST WINDS UP TO 30KT CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE SIERRA AND WESTERN NEVADA FRIDAY. THE WEEKEND IS
SHAPING UP TO BE LESS ACTIVE. HOON/BOYD

&&


.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)






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