Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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FXUS65 KREV 010425 AAA
AFDREV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
825 PM PST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN NV AND THE SIERRA, MAINLY
ALONG THE HIGHWAY 50 CORRIDOR AND DOWN INTO ALPINE AND NORTHERN
MONO COUNTIES. OVERALL WARMING WAS OCCURRING IN CLOUD TOPS BASED ON
LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THUS EXPECT SNOWFALL TO GENERALLY
PRODUCE ONLY LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS. THEREFORE THE
ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME FOR THE TAHOE BASIN. STILL,
A FEW HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS COULD PUT DOWN A QUICK INCH OR TWO
ALONG THE CARSON RANGE AND IN THE SIERRA SOUTH OF LAKE TAHOE
OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION, ROADS MAY REMAIN SLICK AND HAZARDOUS.
MOTORISTS SHOULD PREPARE FOR PATCHY BLACK ICE WHERE WATER
REFREEZES ON AREA ROADWAYS. SOME MODELS ARE PRODUCING ANOTHER BAND
OF SNOW LATE TONIGHT OR SUNDAY DEPENDING ON THE MODEL RUN. THIS
BAND WOULD BE FURTHER SOUTH AND AFFECT THE HIGHWAY 395 CORRIDOR
THROUGH MONO COUNTY. LIKE TODAYS BAND, IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT
THE LOCATION. SO INTERESTS ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA FROM
MARKLEEVILLE TO MAMMOTH SHOULD MONITOR WEATHER AND ROAD CONDITIONS
CLOSELY AS ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE. WE HAVE ALSO REDUCED
THE PATCHY FREEZING FOG COVERAGE DUE TO EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS AND
DECENT NORTHERLY GRADIENT. HOHMANN

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE EASTERN SIERRA OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SLICK AND HAZARDOUS ROAD CONDITIONS.
A WEAKER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING A FEW MORE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
MONDAY WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DRY CONDITIONS
AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED LATER NEXT WEEK.


&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 140 PM PST SAT FEB 28 2015/

SYNOPSIS...
SNOW SHOWERS, LOCALLY HEAVY, WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS SOUTH THROUGH CALIFORNIA. DIFFICULT TRAVEL
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE IN THE SIERRA THIS EVENING WITH SOME
IMPROVEMENT SUNDAY. A WEAKER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING A FEW
MORE LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. DRY CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND ARE EXPECTED
LATER NEXT WEEK.

SHORT TERM...
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE RENO-TAHOE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AS AN
UPPER LOW SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY SOUTH IN CENTRAL CALIFORNIA.
DEFORMATION NORTHEAST OF THE LOW CONTINUES TO PRODUCE ENOUGH LIFT
TO KEEP THE SHOWERS GOING IN ADDITION TO THE LIGHT, NORTHEAST
UPSLOPE FLOW. WHILE SNOW CONTINUES TO ACCUMULATE, IT IS NOT DOING
SO ON THE ROADS DUE TO THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE AT LEAST AROUND RENO.
STILL MANY ROAD ISSUES IN THE SIERRA. LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS HAVE
OCCURRED WITH CLOSE TO 2 FEET IN THE HIGH ELEVATIONS FOR THE NORTH
SHORT OF TAHOE AND 12+ INCHES NORTH OF RENO/SPARKS.

STILL EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO SLOWLY DIMINISH THROUGH 6 PM. IT HAS
BEEN SLOWER TO DIMINISH THAN MODELS INDICATE, ESPECIALLY THE HRRR,
SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS IDEA. SOME LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS ARE
LIKELY INTO THE EVENING. WILL EXTEND THE TAHOE ADVISORY THROUGH 8
PM TO ACCOUNT FOR THE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE AND FOR
THE SLICK ROADS.

FREEZING FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT IF SKIES CLEAR ENOUGH
IN THE VALLEYS ALONG HIGHWAY 50 AND I-80. PLENTY OF MOISTURE FROM
THE SNOW/RAIN THAT FELL WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO THE FOG IF WE GET
ENOUGH CLEARING.

AS THE SHOWERS WIND DOWN AROUND THE 50/80 CORRIDORS, IT SHOULD
INCREASE ACROSS MONO/MINERAL COUNTIES. ALREADY SEEING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THERE. EXPECT THESE TO INCREASE
THIS EVENING AS THE WEAKENING DEFORMATION ZONE MOVES IN. HOWEVER,
EXPECT LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH ONLY UP TO 2
INCHES. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE WEST OF HIGHWAY 395 CLOSE THE THE
SIERRA CREST IN MONO COUNTY. THERE, THE NORTHEAST UPSLOPE WILL
CREATE SOME ENHANCEMENT WITH LOCAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6-10 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS
DIMINISHING FOR MOST AREAS OUTSIDE OF MONO-MINERAL COUNTIES. IT
WILL CONTINUE TO BE COLD SUNDAY UNDER LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW. THE
SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH VERY WEAK SHORT
WAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. ALL
MODELS SHOWING IT MOVING FURTHER WEST ALONG THE COAST. WITH SUCH A
SMALL SYSTEM, IT APPEARS SCT SNOW SHOWERS AT BEST IN THE SIERRA
AND PRETTY MUCH DRY EAST OF HIGHWAY 395. THE MAIN THING IT WILL DO
IS REINFORCE THE COOLER AIR NOW OVER THE SIERRA AND WESTERN
NEVADA. WALLMANN

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING FOR PARTS OF
MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES, BUT OVERALL A DRY PATTERN WILL RETURN
TO THE REGION AS TROUGH DEPARTS THE GREAT BASIN. NORTH FLOW WILL
KEEP TEMPS COOL ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER
40S FOR WESTERN NV AND NEAR 40 IN THE TAHOE BASIN.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
A RIDGE REBUILDING INLAND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN, RESULTING IN DRY
CONDITIONS AND A WARMING TREND WITH LIGHT WINDS. DAYTIME TEMPS IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE LOWER-MID 50S
WEDNESDAY, THEN JUMP TO NEAR 60 DEGREES THURSDAY, THEN PUSH A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE 60 DEGREES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MJD

AVIATION...
WRAP AROUND SNOW BAND HAS PERSISTED ACROSS THE TAHOE BASIN AND
PARTS OF WESTERN NV. IFR CIGS/VIS FOR KTVL-KTRK WITH MVFR-IFR
CONDS FOR KRNO-KCXP LIKELY TO CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 03Z. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1 INCH POSSIBLE ON RUNWAYS AFT 00Z AT
KTRK/KTVL AFTER THE SNOW ENDS THIS EVENING, VIS WILL IMPROVE
ALTHOUGH SOME MTN OBSCURATIONS DUE TO LOW CLOUD DECK ARE EXPECTED.
IF CLEARING OCCURS LATE TONIGHT, THEN FZFG POTENTIAL WOULD
INCREASE FOR ALL TERMINALS IN THE RENO-CARSON-TAHOE REGION THRU
SUN AM. BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON, OVERALL CONDS SHOULD IMPROVE ALTHOUGH
LINGERING -SHSN MAY PRODUCE MVFR CIGS/VIS AT TIMES.

FARTHER SOUTH INTO MONO AND MINERAL COUNTIES, WORSENING CIGS/VIS ARE
LIKELY TO MOVE IN TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH. THE KMMH
TERMINAL MAY RECEIVE A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WITH -SHSN POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO MOST
OF SUNDAY PRODUCING MVFR-IFR CONDS AT TIMES. MJD

&&

.REV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NV...NONE.
CA...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RENO (ALL LOWER CASE)





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