Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
088
FXUS61 KRNK 221336
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
936 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE MIDWEST AND BRING OVERALL
PLEASANT WEATHER TO THE REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...WITH
JUST AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OF THUNDERSTORM WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT BELOW
NORMAL ON FRIDAY...BUT HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL GRADUALLY BE ON THE
INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 925 AM EDT FRIDAY...

EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW SOME LOW CLOUDS
HANGING BACK OVER THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE. THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE MIXING
OUT THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS FROM APPROACHING WEAK FRONT TO THE NORTH
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE GREENBRIER VALLEY/ALLEGHANY HIGHLANDS LATE
IN THE DAY. ONE CAVEAT IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME OROGRAPHIC
CIRRUS BUT DO NOT SEE ANY SIGNS OF THIS YET SO WILL NOT INCLUDE
ANY AT THIS TIME. 12Z RNK SOUNDING SUPPORTS CURRENT FORECAST MAX
TEMPS GENERALLY 70 TO 75 EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH 65 TO 70
WEST.

PREVIOUS AFD...

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY OUT
TO SEA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A SHARP H5 TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CONUS BRINGING A BRIEF SHOT OF DRIER AND COOLER AIR
DOWN ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH UPSLOPE CLOUDS ACROSS THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD TODAY
WITH CLOUDS DISSIPATING EVEN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY BUT LITTLE
SIGNIFICANT AIR MASS CHANGE BEHIND IT. MAIN EFFECT MAY BE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS FOR THE GREENBRIER VALLEY AND ALLEGHANY
HIGHLANDS. OVERNIGHT LOOKS DRY AND AND MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...LOW 40 FAR NW TO NEAR 50 SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 200 AM EDT FRIDAY...

THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A BUILDING
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE UNITED STATES.
CONCURRENTLY...AN UPPER LOW WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...WHILE ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTAL FEATURES ALLOW FOR
PLENTY OF WET AND STORMY WEATHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
COUNTRY.

FOR OUR AREA DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...ANTICIPATE A TREND TOWARDS
PROGRESSIVE WARMER TEMPERATURES THANKS TO THE BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE...AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE CENTER OF THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE REGION. HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. BY
MEMORIAL DAY...THE 80S WILL BE COMMON PLACE WITH THE UPPER END OF
THIS RANGE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE PRECIPITATION FREE EACH OF THESE DAYS AND
NIGHTS. HOWEVER...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA AND NEIGHBORING PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA ON MEMORIAL DAY AND NIGHT. THESE WILL BE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE EASTERN EXTENT OF THE CENTRAL CONUS SYSTEM
GRADUALLY GETTING CLOSER TO THIS REGION...AND AN ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT SKIRTING THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING IN THIS SAME REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 345 PM EDT THURSDAY...

WARMING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AMPLIFIES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...THE ACTUAL SURFACE
HIGH BECOMING ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST.

THIS WILL PLACE OUR FORECAST AREA IN A WARM/HUMID PATTERN WITH
MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN DEEP CONVECTION.  FORCING WILL BE MAINLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...SO LOOK FOR BEST
OPPORTUNITY FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/STORMS TO BE ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND LITTLE OR NO THREAT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT/TROF OVER THE MIDWEST MAY MOVE CLOSE ENOUGH TO US
BY MID WEEK TO HELP PROVIDE A BETTER FOCUS FOR DEEP CONVECTION...BUT
THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN LOW AS AVAILABLE
DYNAMICS ARE LACKING. TEMPERATURES DURING THE WEEK LOOK TO BE QUITE
SUMMERLIKE WITH MUGGY HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 80S WEST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND UPPER 80S/NEAR 90 EAST...AND BALMY LOWS IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 730 AM EDT FRIDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TODAY WITH VFR CONDITIONS
ALREADY BEING REPORTED AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT BLF WHERE SOME
STRATUS IS PERSISTING. VFR WILL PREVAIL AT ALL SITES WITHIN
SEVERAL HOURS. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE BIT GUSTY UNDER NORTHWEST
FLOW AND DOWNSLOPING BUT SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH MOVES FURTHER EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE AND SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
THE HIGH WILL RESULT IN SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS MAY BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOUNTAIN AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPCLY BY LATER TUESDAY...WHEN
PERIODS OF MVFR COULD OCCUR MAINLY BLUE RIDGE WEST. OTRW VFR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY OUTSIDE OF ANY LATE DAY CONVECTION.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS/PC
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JH/PC



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.