Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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445
FXUS64 KTSA 250043
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
743 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Increasing westerly flow aloft, on the leading edge of a strong
extended cross-Pacific jet, has forced lee troughing out west on
the High Plains. The surface high that was over our area yesterday
has shifted southeast, and this has resulted in a tight pressure
gradient over the region. South winds and higher dewpoints will
lead to a much milder night tonight compared to last night. The
current forecast has this covered, so no changes are needed at
this time. Shortwave energy on the nose of the Pacific jet will
bring a chance for storms by this time tomorrow night.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 557 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017/

AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR TAF elements will prevail through the period. SFC gusts between
20-25kts will be common at most sites from mid morning on.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 358 PM CDT Mon Apr 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Southerly winds will stay up tonight which will result in a much
milder night than what we have seen recently. A very warm day will
then follow Tuesday, with some places approaching record highs. A
fair amount of high cloudiness may be just enough to hold
temperatures below record levels.

A cold front will move across the area late Tuesday night and
Wednesday, with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
expected to develop along and ahead of the front. Despite the
unfavorable time of day, strong to severe storms are likely in
northeast Oklahoma Tuesday night, and into far eastern Oklahoma
and western Arkansas Wednesday morning into early afternoon. A
cold rain may linger into Wednesday evening behind the front as
an upper low moves across the area.

The forecast late this week into the weekend remains fraught with
uncertainty. A strong upper level storm system will move out of
the Rockies into the Plains this weekend. The old frontal boundary
will return north as a warm front and will provide a focus for
potential severe thunderstorms, heavy rainfall, and flooding. The
biggest question lies in just how far north this front will
advance, and the trend in the models has been farther to the
south. This may focus the higher severe weather chances to the
southern and eastern parts of our forecast area, with heavy
rainfall/flooding potential to the north, but perhaps not all the
way to the Kansas border. A wide range of temperatures will also
exist across the boundary, and have adjusted the blended
temperatures to reflect the consensus of the various model
solutions.

Sunday looks like a raw day with a few wraparound showers
remaining possible. After a chilly night Sunday night, a quick
warmup is expected early next week.

Stayed close to guidance temperatures the next couple days, with
the coldest guidance preferred behind the frontal boundary
Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   60  87  55  57 /   0   0  70  70
FSM   55  86  67  73 /   0   0  40  80
MLC   60  87  64  67 /   0   0  40  80
BVO   55  87  52  53 /   0  10  70  70
FYV   52  81  63  68 /   0   0  40  80
BYV   54  82  64  70 /   0   0  30  90
MKO   58  86  63  64 /   0   0  60  80
MIO   56  83  55  56 /   0   0  80  90
F10   59  87  58  58 /   0   0  60  70
HHW   57  86  68  72 /   0   0  30  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....30



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