Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 052334
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
534 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR...P6SM SKC...THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD ALL SITES.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 231 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015/

DISCUSSION...

MUCH WARMER AND QUIETER CONDITIONS PREVAILING ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS TODAY IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAYS
WINTRY MESS. THE INTENSE MARCH SUN IN COMBINATION WITH
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING MOST AREAS HAS LED TO A STEADY
DECREASE IN THE SNOW COVER ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SIGNIFICANT
COVER ONLY REALLY REMAINING IN THE HARDEST HIT PORTIONS OF FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY DIFFERENCE FROM THIS MORNING IS QUITE STRIKING.

OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD NOT BE AS LOW AS LAST NIGHT...AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
TONIGHT WITH THE EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS. THE
EXCEPTION TO THIS IS IN PARTS OF FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WHICH COULD BOTTOM OUT RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE
OVERNIGHT PRIOR TO GAINING THE SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT. THIS IS
IN ADDITION TO THE EFFECTS FROM THE REMAINING SNOW COVER. THE VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES IN THESE AREAS COULD LEAD TO REFREEZING OF ANY
MELTED SLEET/SNOW ON ROADWAYS OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR SLICK SPOTS.

WINDS AREA WIDE...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY TOMORROW...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM
VERY QUICKLY. HIGHS ACROSS MOST OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA WILL AT LEAST
APPROACH 50...WITH NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA EXCEEDING THAT MARK. SNOW
COVER IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WILL INHIBIT THE WARMUP SOME...BUT
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S SHOULD GO A LONG WAY TOWARD MELTING
WHAT REMAINS ON THE GROUND.

WITH THE POLAR JET WELL NORTH OF THE REGION...TOMORROW WILL ONLY
BE THE BEGINNING OF WHAT WILL BE A SUBSTANTIAL WARMUP...WITH
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL
APPROACH 70 BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

ON THE PRECIP SIDE OF THINGS...THE 12Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUED THE
00Z TRENDS OF INCREASING MOISTURE FARTHER NORTH INTO SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS SUNDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE
RED RIVER...BUT A FEW SHOWERS COULD MOVE INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. MOST SPOTS WILL REMAIN DRY HOWEVER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   24  52  29  60 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   18  46  29  58 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   20  48  28  57 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   18  54  26  59 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   14  43  28  56 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   14  42  31  58 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   20  50  27  58 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   19  49  29  57 /   0   0   0   0
F10   21  50  29  58 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   20  47  25  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...21





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