Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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391
FXUS64 KTSA 210443
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1143 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...

The discussion for the 06Z TAF forecast can be found below.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
A ridge of high pressure aloft will maintain VFR conditions thru
the period. South surface winds may gust to near 15kts during the
midday and afternoon hours on Friday at the NE OK sites.

Lacy

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 816 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017/

..UPDATE...

DISCUSSION...
Temperatures still in the upper 80s and 90s across much of the
region early this evening. A few isolated showers and
thunderstorms ongoing near the I-40 corridor in west-central
Arkansas, but these should continue to dissipate over the next
hour or two with loss of daytime heating. Minor changes to
forecast this evening include adding some isolated convection
over west-central Arkansas and a few tweaks to evening
temperatures.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 238 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Excessively hot conditions continue this afternoon with heat
indices running in the 105 to 110 degree range across a large
portion of eastern Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas. Upper high
will continue to dominate the overall weather pattern Friday and
Saturday with similar heat indices expected both afternoons. The
heat advisory has therefore been extended through Saturday.

Upper ridge will begin to weaken on Sunday with a frontal boundary
approaching from the north as larger scale wave moves through the
Great Lakes region. Heat indices could again become an issue
Sunday afternoon as low level moisture begins to pool ahead of
front. Scattered showers/thunderstorms are expected to develop
near boundary by Sunday evening across far northeast Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas. Instability will likely be sufficient enough
for the threat of damaging downburst winds in a few of the stronger
storms. Still some uncertainty regarding precipitation chances
Monday into Tuesday as operational models handle potential MCS/MCV
evolution differently. Regardless, scattered thunderstorms will
remain possible both days before upper high begins to build back
into the Southern Plains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81 100  81 100 /   0  10  10  10
FSM   77  98  78  98 /  10  10  10  10
MLC   75  97  76  97 /   0   0  10  10
BVO   75 100  76 100 /   0  10  10  10
FYV   70  93  71  94 /   0  10  10  10
BYV   73  96  74  95 /   0  10  10  10
MKO   74  97  75  97 /   0  10  10  10
MIO   75  97  76  97 /   0  10  10  10
F10   74  98  75  97 /   0  10  10  10
HHW   75  98  76  96 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ001-002-010-011-019-
     020-029.

&&

$$

AVIATION...30



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