Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 312003
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
303 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...HEADLINES...DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND THEN A GOOD CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD BENEFICIAL RAIN BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK...

SHORT TERM...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS SOLIDLY IN PLACE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS LEADING TO QUIET WEATHER OVER THE
CENTRAL THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. THIS RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO STAY IN
PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY AND MOST OF SUNDAY BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE ONLY REAL WEATHER OF
POTENTIAL IMPACT THIS WEEKEND WILL BE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS EVENING WILL BE JACKET
WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S AREA WIDE BY 9PM AND TEMPS
CONTINUING TO PLUMMET OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS SATURDAY MORNING IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S FOR EVERYWHERE EXCEPT EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. A FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE FOR OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT AS TEMPS WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING
OVERNIGHT. FOR THE METROPLEX AND AREAS SOUTH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
MID 30S BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY DRY TONIGHT
AND IN TAKING A LOOK AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS THE LOWEST 100MB THERE
IS A GOOD 5-15 DEGREE SPREAD BETWEEN TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT SO
THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR FROST TO FORM.
HOWEVER SOME VERY PATCHY FROST COULD BE POSSIBLE IN LOW LYING
AREAS AND RIVER VALLEYS WHERE MOISTURE COULD POOL UP.

MEDIUM RANGE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
BY LATE SUNDAY THIS UPPER LOW WILL SPLIT OFF INTO TWO PIECES OF
ENERGY...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHWARD INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS...WHILE ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOOTS NORTHWARD
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE NORTHERN TROUGH WILL SPAWN SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE DAKOTAS AND SOUTHERN CANADA BY MONDAY WITH A
TRAILING SURFACE FRONT DRAPED OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE SOUTHERN TROUGH WILL BECOME ELONGATED AND POSITIVELY
TILTED. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE TO BE TAPPED FROM THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT OVER THE PLAINS AND ALSO TAP INTO
MOISTURE TO THE SOUTHWEST ASSOCIATED WITH CURRENT TROPICAL STORM
VANCE WHICH WILL BE APPROACHING NORTHERN MEXICO BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. IN ADDITION GULF MOISTURE WILL BE FLOWING INTO NORTH TEXAS
OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT AND ON THE BACK SIDE OF A
SURFACE HIGH OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. LENDING FURTHER EVIDENCE TO
THE MOIST AIR MASS THAT IS EXPECTED IS THE FACT THAT THE GFS IS
SHOWING PWATS IN THE 1.5 TO 1.75 INCH RANGE FOR TUESDAY. THIS IS
ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS HIGHER THAN THE NORMAL PWATS WE SEE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. IF YOU ADD ALL OF THIS UP THIS IS LEADING
US TO A VERY FAVORABLE SET UP FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
NORTH TEXAS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TIMING AND IMPACTS OF THE RAIN NEXT WEEK...RAIN CHANCES ARE
INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST BEGINNING ON MONDAY WITH 20 TO 30
POPS MONDAY MORNING FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
INCREASING TO 40 TO 60 POPS BY LATE MONDAY. THE MOST LIKELY TIMING
FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AREA WIDE IS TUESDAY WHERE WE HAVE 60
TO 80 POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. THIS IS A VERY HIGH POP FOR A
DAY 5 EVENT WHICH REFLECTS THE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT WE HAVE THAT
WE ARE GOING TO GET RAIN. THE BIG CHALLENGE IN THE FORECAST COMES
AFTER TUESDAY WHERE THE MODELS DIVERGE. 12Z OPERATIONAL HAS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW CLOSING OFF OVER EAST TEXAS BY THURSDAY AND THEN
ADVANCING EASTWARD BY FRIDAY. THIS WOULD GIVE US CONTINUED RAIN
CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY WITH LINGERING RAIN CHANCES ON THURSDAY. THE
12Z ECMWF HAS A MUCH DIFFERENT SOLUTION AS IT CLOSES OFF AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND MERGES IT WITH THE REMNANTS OF VANCE OVER NORTHERN
MEXICO NEAR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY. THE
ECMWF THEN HAS THIS STORM SYSTEM TAKING A VERY SLOW TREK EASTWARD
ACROSS TEXAS OVER A SEVERAL DAY PERIOD FINALLY CLEARING THE LONE
STAR STATE BY SATURDAY. THIS SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN SEVERAL
DAYS OF RAIN CHANCES FOR MUCH OF TEXAS INCLUDING THE LOCAL AREA.
UNFORTUNATELY THE GFS ENSEMBLES ARE NOT MUCH HELP AS ABOUT HALF
OF THEM HAVE THE GFS OPERATIONAL SOLUTION AND HALF HAVE THE ECMWF
OPERATIONAL SOLUTION.

GIVEN THAT THERE IS NOT MUCH CERTAINTY IN THE SOLUTION BEYOND
TUESDAY THE IMPACTS ARE DIFFICULT TO ASSESS AT THIS TIME. AT THE
VERY LEAST IT DOES APPEAR AS THOUGH SO BENEFICIAL DROUGHT RELIEF
WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THE NAEFS ENSEMBLE IS SHOWING
A 4O TO 60 PERCENT CHANCE THAT OUR AREA WILL SEE AT LEAST 1 INCH
OF RAIN IN THE MONDAY TO THURSDAY TIME FRAME. THIS IS VERY
PROMISING TO SAY THE LEAST.  POTENTIAL FLOODING IMPACTS ARE
DIFFICULT TO ASSESS AT THIS TIME BUT GIVEN THE RICH MOISTURE THAT
WILL BE IN PLACE THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN
AND FLOODING TO OCCUR MOST LIKELY IN THE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME. IF THE RAIN LINGERS INTO THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD AS
THE ECMWF SOLUTION THAT COULD LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD FLOODING
IMPACTS...BUT ALSO ADDITIONAL DROUGHT RELIEF.

BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WE HAVE A GOOD CHANCE FOR AREA WIDE BENEFICIAL
RAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO REFINE THE
FORECAST IN THE DAYS TO COME TO ASSESS ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL IMPACTS.

HOETH


&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1220 PM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014/
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CONSISTS OF A DEEPENING LOW OVER THE
APPALACHIANS AND A STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS.
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH FROM THE PLAINS INTO NORTH TEXAS. THE
RESULTING NORTH- NORTHEAST WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN SUSTAINED NEAR
15 KT THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH WOULD CREATE A BIT OF A CROSSWIND ON
13/31 DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SPEEDS SHOULD DROP BELOW 10 KT
AROUND 01/00Z AS LOW LEVEL WINDS DECOUPLE. WINDS WILL VEER TO A
MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5-10
KT MID MORNING SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTHEAST
INTO THE MS VALLEY.

30


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  36  61  43  70  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              35  65  41  73  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             30  57  36  66  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            31  61  41  69  57 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          32  60  39  69  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            36  61  43  70  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           34  61  39  69  55 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         35  62  40  72  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            37  64  41  73  59 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     32  65  42  69  58 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR TXZ091>095-
100>107.


&&

$$

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