Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 240440 AAC
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1140 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNS...BRIEF MVFR VIS /5SM BR/ FOR KACT IN THE MORNING.

STORMS ARE DYING FOR THE NIGHT AND DO NOT EXPECT ANY MORE  TO
AFFECT THE TERMINALS DURING THIS FORECAST. ANY TSRA ON THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOULD BE EAST OF THE TERMINALS AND MIGHT AFFECT
SOME INBOUNDS FROM THE EAST.

EXPECTING 5SM BR AT KACT 10-13Z...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS /FEW-
SCT060 AND BKN- SCT250/ AT ALL SITES THE REST OF THE FORECAST.
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH SOUTHEAST
5-10 KNOTS ON THURSDAY. 75

&&

.UPDATE...
THE COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT ROLLED ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING CONTINUES TO WEAKEN WITH THE LOSS OF
SURFACE HEATING. THE COMPLEX DID THROW OUT AN IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW
WHICH CURRENTLY RESIDES NEAR THE I35/35W CORRIDOR. THE OUTFLOW
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN BUT STILL PROBABLY HAS SOME WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 30 MPH. LIFT ALONG THE OUTFLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING...
BUT THE LOSS OF HEATING AND THE LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVER THE
REGION SHOULD KEEP ACTIVITY ISOLATED AT BEST.

FOR THIS UPDATE WILL REMOVE ALL COUNTIES IN BOTH SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCHES. WILL ADJUST POPS DOWN FOR ALL COUNTIES
EXCEPT THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. WILL ALSO LOWER OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE NORTHEAST/EAST ZONES DUE TO COOLER TEMPS WITHIN THE STORM
COMPLEX.

79

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 243 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP NORTHEAST OF THE REGION IN
PROXIMITY OF A WEAK COLD FRONT AND STOUT SHORTWAVE. MODEL TRENDS
INDICATE THAT CONVECTION WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TO OUR
NORTHEAST...WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW REGIME DRIVING THIS ACTIVITY
SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD NORTH TEXAS. AT THE CURRENT RATE OF
DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT...CONVECTION SHOULD BEGIN TO CROSS OVER
INTO LAMAR COUNTY NEAR PARIS AND SURROUNDING AREAS AROUND 6 PM OR
SO. THE TIME OF DAY WOULD SUGGEST THAT SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL
BE STRONG TO POSSIBLE SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN
THREAT AS THEY AFFECT THE NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. A WEAKENING
TREND IS EXPECTED AS CELLS MOVE FARTHER SOUTHWEST...DUE TO THE
WANING OF SURFACE HEATING AND ALSO TO THE INCREASING SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE DOMINANT RIDGE TO THE WEST. STILL...LOW POPS WILL BE
MAINTAINED IN THE METROPLEX AND SURROUNDING AREAS THROUGH MIDNIGHT
OR SO....WITH ACTIVITY DISSIPATING THEREAFTER.

A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARISE AGAIN THURSDAY AS A WEAK
FRONT SAGS SOUTH TO NEAR THE I-20 CORRIDOR...PROVIDING FOCUS FOR
ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. WEST OF I-35...IT
APPEARS THAT SUBSIDENCE FROM THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHUT OFF ANY
ATTEMPT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE THE
INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND UNCOMFORTABLE HEAT. AFTER CAREFULLY
RUNNING AND FINALIZING THE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT FORECAST...THE
RESULTING APPARENT TEMPERATURE GRIDS ARE INDICATING HEAT INDICES
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD IN THE 105 TO 108 DEGREE RANGE BOTH THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THE
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES WHERE DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP THE HEAT
INDEX BELOW 105. WE WILL GO AHEAD AND INCLUDE A HEAT ADVISORY FOR
MOST OF NORTH TEXAS...EXCLUDING THE AREAS WEST OF A MINERAL WELLS
TO GATESVILLE LINE WHERE CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.
THE ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM NOON THURSDAY UNTIL 9 PM
FRIDAY NIGHT. PLEASE USE CAUTION WHEN PARTICIPATING IN OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES...STAY HYDRATED...AND SCHEDULE STRENUOUS ACTIVITIES FOR
EARLY IN THE DAY WHEN POSSIBLE.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT ON MONDAY...AS AN UPPER
TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN STATES AND THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES
TO THE WEST. THIS WILL PLACE NORTH TEXAS IN A STRONG NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. THIS PATTERN WILL SEND ANOTHER RARE JULY
COLD FRONT SOUTH FROM THE PLAINS ACROSS THE RED RIVER ON MONDAY. A
CHANCE OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT....WITH COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK
BEHIND THE FRONT.

30



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  78 100  80 103  79 /  20  10  10   5   0
WACO, TX              74 100  77 101  76 /  20  10  10   5   0
PARIS, TX             69  95  73  99  75 /  40  20  10   5   0
DENTON, TX            76 100  77 103  78 /  20  10  10   5   0
MCKINNEY, TX          74  98  77 102  77 /  20  10  10   5   0
DALLAS, TX            77 100  80 103  78 /  20  10  10   5   0
TERRELL, TX           73  99  76 101  76 /  40  10  10   5   0
CORSICANA, TX         73  99  77 100  76 /  20  10  10   5   0
TEMPLE, TX            74  99  76 100  76 /  20  10  10   5   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     75 101  76 103  76 /  20  10  10   5   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 10 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR
TXZ091>095-100>107-117>123-131>135-144>148-158>162-174-175.


&&

$$

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