Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 191154 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
554 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
CONCERNS...IFR CEILINGS THROUGH 20Z. RAIN THIS MORNING...ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING MAINLY AT WACO.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER WEST TEXAS WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. AS
IT DOES SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST.
IFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY HOLD IN THROUGH 20Z...WITH AN IMPROVEMENT TO
MVFR THEREAFTER. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY WITH
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT EAST AND SOUTHEAST 15-18Z SATURDAY.


58

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014/
PRECIPITATION SHIELD FILLING IN OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES
AS I TYPE THIS. LIGHTNING HAS BEEN OCCURRING AS FAR NORTH AS ERATH
COUNTY AND HAVE ADJUSTED THE ISOLD THUNDER NORTH TO COMPENSATE.
THE UPPER LOW IS EASILY SEEN ON WATER VAPOR AND IS MOVING EAST AT
30-40 KT AT THIS TIME. MOST OF THE MODELS PROG THE PRECIP TO MOVE
EAST AT THE SAME RATE...AND ALL THE RAIN SHOULD BE EAST OF THE CWA
BY THIS EVENING. WHILE OVERALL QPF WILL BE LOW...THE GROUND HAS BEEN
KEPT MOIST BY ALL THE FOG/DRIZZLE AND HOPEFULLY WE`LL SEE SOME
MODEST RUNOFF FOR THE LAKES.

WITH THE PRECIP MOVING EAST AND SOME SUBSIDENCE TO THIN THE
CLOUDS...I FORECAST HIGHS RUNNING FROM UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOW-MID
50S SOUTH. IF CLOUDS LINGER ALL AFTERNOON...I WILL BE TOO WARM.
LOW CLOUDS SHOULD RE-FORM OVERNIGHT AND KEEP MIN TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY FROM DROPPING BELOW FREEZING.

IN ADVANCE OF THE TUESDAY COLD FRONT HIGHS SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE 60S
ALMOST EVERYWHERE BY MONDAY...BUT A NORTHWEST WIND ON TUESDAY WILL
MAKE THE 50S/60S HIGHS SEEM COOLER. SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE EAST. THE NEXT LEE TROUGH FORMS BY THURSDAY AND WITH
SOUTH WINDS IN THE TEENS HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOW-MID 60S
NORTH/LOW 70S IN THE SOUTH.

GFS/ECMWF DIFFER ON THE LATE WEEK COLD FRONT...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF
DAMPING THAT FRONT OUT TO OUR NORTH. THE GFS HAS WEAKENED THE COLD
FRONT...BUT STILL BRINGS IT ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE LEANED TOWARD
THE GFS SOLUTION AND WILL WATCH THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO SEE IF THE
FRONT BECOMES A NON FACTOR.   84

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  51  42  52  41  55 /  60   5   5   5  10
WACO, TX              52  42  53  40  56 /  70   5   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             47  39  49  38  52 /  50  10   5   5  10
DENTON, TX            50  39  51  39  54 /  50   5   5   5  10
MCKINNEY, TX          50  39  50  38  53 /  60  10   5   5  10
DALLAS, TX            51  43  52  42  55 /  60   5   5   5  10
TERRELL, TX           51  42  51  40  54 /  60  10   5   5  10
CORSICANA, TX         52  43  54  41  55 /  70  10   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            53  43  54  41  56 /  70   5   5   5  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     50  39  51  38  55 /  50   5   5   5  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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