Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 242118 CCA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
317 PM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
QUIET...DRY...AND PLEASANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND
MAKING FOR AN ENJOYABLE HOLIDAY WEEK.

SOME HIGH CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS ENERGY IN
THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE STATE.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WITH
MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS. LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS A SURFACE
HIGH MOVES OVER THE REGION AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE
30S...BUT MOSTLY REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.

ONE FINAL PIECE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION
TOMORROW AND THEN THE ENTIRE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SYSTEM WILL MOVE
EAST WITH NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTING OVERHEAD THROUGH FRIDAY. A
WEAK AND BARELY NOTICEABLE FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO THE REGION
TOMORROW BUT ITS EFFECTS WILL BE LIMITED TO BRINGING THE WINDS
BACK AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST...BUT FOR ONLY A SHORT TIME.
TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY AND THEN A
WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE.

UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF QUIET NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY BUT
AGAIN...ITS EFFECT WILL BE VERY MINIMAL AND MOSTLY MARKED BY A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH. SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS RETURN ACROSS
THE REGION FRIDAY AND THIS WEEKEND AND WILL STRENGTHEN AS A STRONG
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO A ZONAL FLOW PATTERN AND
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S AND 70S
THIS WEEKEND. THE WEEKEND FORECAST WILL FEATURE WARM
TEMPERATURES...BREEZY WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER.
PREVIOUSLY...A FRONT WAS FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY BUT NOW
BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BARELY EASE THIS FRONT INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE QUICKLY RETURNING IT NORTH. THIS HAPPENS IN
RESPONSE TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENING THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES...AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS.
THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SOMETIME NEXT WEEK AND
COULD BRING US RAIN CHANCES.

82/JLD

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1116 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014/
SURFACE WINDS ARE ALREADY BACKING TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION IN
THE METROPLEX AS THE AXIS OF A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS. WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN DECREASING DUE TO A SLACKENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND WE WILL GO AHEAD AND INDICATE A LIGHT WEST
WIND AT TAF ISSUANCE FOR THE DFW AREA TAFS. WINDS AT KACT WILL
LIKELY FOLLOW SUIT LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS TEXAS EARLY TUESDAY. SURFACE
WINDS WILL RESPOND BY VEERING TO A NORTHERLY DIRECTION ONCE AGAIN
BY 12Z TUESDAY...WITH SPEEDS REMAINING AROUND 5 KT. IMPACTS
WOULD MAINLY OCCUR AT DFW WHERE A BRIEF RETURN TO NORTH FLOW IS
POSSIBLE FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING HOURS.

WE EXPECT ANOTHER RETURN TO LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A SECONDARY PUSH OF COOL AIR...WHICH
IS ON TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS MAY THICKEN UP AS THE SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA EARLY
TUESDAY...BUT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR AT ALL TAF
LOCATIONS.

30


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  38  62  41  65  40 /   0   5   5   0   0
WACO, TX              35  64  38  68  38 /   0   5   5   0   0
PARIS, TX             34  59  36  62  36 /   0   5   5   0   0
DENTON, TX            33  61  38  64  37 /   0   5   5   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          32  61  38  65  37 /   0   5   5   0   0
DALLAS, TX            39  62  42  65  41 /   0   5   5   0   0
TERRELL, TX           35  63  39  66  39 /   0   5   5   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         37  64  40  67  40 /   0   5   5   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            35  65  38  68  39 /   0   5   5   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     32  62  36  65  37 /   0  10   5   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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