Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 250835
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
335 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL RETURN TO THE
SOUTHEAST BY MID-MORNING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT APPROACHING TROUGH.
THE WEATHER TODAY WILL BE TRANQUIL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 80S. THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE WESTERN ZONES...AND A FEW LOCATIONS
COULD REACH THE 90 DEGREE MARK.

THE OUTLOOK FOR THIS WEEKENDS SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES IS BECOMING
MORE EVIDENT AS TIME GETS CLOSER TO THE EVENT AND CONFIDENCE
GROWS. SATURDAY AFTERNOON THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO BE WELL WEST
OF THE CWA WITH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LOW STILL EXPECTED TO BE
NEAR THE 4 CORNERS REGION. HOWEVER...HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH SHOULD LEAD TO ENOUGH LIFT WITH THE
SURFACE FOCUS OF THE DRYLINE TO SPARK SCATTERED STORMS WEST OF THE
CWA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. CAPE AND SHEAR VALUES WILL BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS IN THIS REGION. THE MAIN QUESTION FOR
OUR CWA IS THE TIMING OF ANY EASTWARD MOVING STORMS MAKING IT INTO
THE CWA AND THE STRENGTH OF A CAP EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A BRIEF WINDOW NEAR 03Z WHERE SEVERE
CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE STORMS WEAKEN. THIS WINDOW WILL
ALSO BE AT THE SAME TIME THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AND LCLS
BEGIN TO LOWER. THEREFORE...THERE MAY BE A SMALL TORNADO THREAT
BEFORE THE CAP WILL EVENTUALLY WIN OUT...ENDING SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION.

THE FOCUS SATURDAY NIGHT WILL THEN TURN TO ELEVATED CONVECTION.
INCREASING LIFT FROM THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
IN THE MID-LEVELS WHICH WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
ELEVATED STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT. 700-500MB LAPSE RATES NEAR 8-8.5
C/KM WILL SUPPORT THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE HAIL FROM THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE AMOUNT OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE ON
SEVERE CHANCES FOR SUNDAY. THE DRYLINE SHOULD MAKE IT TO THE I-35
CORRIDOR AROUND 18Z SUNDAY AND THEREFORE THE BEST SEVERE CHANCES
WILL BE EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY..THEN SHIFTING FARTHER EAST AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. THE INITIAL ENVIRONMENT FOR THIS AREA EARLY SUNDAY
WILL BE VERY UNFAVORABLE FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS DUE TO A VERY
STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IN PLACE. IT IS SOMETIMES SAID THAT
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING STORMS CAN BE NEGATIVE FOR AFTERNOON STORM
DEVELOPMENT...BUT ON SUNDAY THIS WILL IMPROVE AFTERNOON STORM
CHANCES. ANY RAIN THAT FALLS FROM THE ELEVATED STORMS ROOTED
AROUND 10KFT WILL FALL INTO THE CAP. AIR WITHIN THIS LAYER IS DRY
AND WARM...AND WHEN PRECIPITATION ENCOUNTERS THIS...THE AIR WILL
COOL AND MOISTEN AS RAIN EVAPORATES. THEREFORE...COOLING BY
PRECIPITATION AND LIFTING OF THE CAP AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES
SHOULD COMPLETELY ERODE THE CAP AROUND 18-19Z FOR AREAS EAST OF
THE DRYLINE.

THEN THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES WILL THE ATMOSPHERE BE ABLE TO
RECOVER BY THE AFTERNOON FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP.
CURRENT GUIDANCE SUGGEST IT WILL...WITH THE NAM INCREASING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MIDDLE 70S BY MID-DAY. THIS ISNT TOO
WARM...BUT THESE TEMPS WILL WILL LEAD TO SBCAPE VALUES NEAR 3000
J/KG AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THEREFORE...SEVERE STORMS
ARE LIKELY EAST OF THE DRYLINE SUNDAY WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. THE NAMS FORECAST IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES WITH 0-3 HELICITY VALUES EXCEEDING 300 M2/S2 WHILE THE
GFS IS A BIT LESS. THIS POTENTIAL EVENT IS STILL IN THE DAY 3
PERIOD AND THE TORNADO THREAT WILL BE FINED TUNED AS MESOSCALE
FEATURES BECOME BETTER DEFINED. THERE IS ALSO STILL UNCERTAINTY ON
THE OVERNIGHT ELEVATED CONVECTION AND WHAT EXACT ROLE THAT WILL
PLAY ON AFTERNOON STORM CHANCES.

STORM CHANCES WILL END BY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WEST WINDS AND WARM
WEATHER EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY...BUT NO RAIN IS EXPECTED. NORTH FLOW
WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY...AS THE UPPER LOW
REMAINS STUCK IN A BLOCKING PATTERN. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

HAMPSHIRE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  84  64  88  71  90 /   0   0   5  40  40
WACO, TX              85  61  86  68  89 /   0   0   5  20  20
PARIS, TX             80  54  86  68  80 /   0   0   5  40  60
DENTON, TX            84  60  86  71  87 /   0   5   5  40  30
MCKINNEY, TX          83  59  87  71  87 /   0   0   5  40  40
DALLAS, TX            85  64  89  71  90 /   0   0   5  40  40
TERRELL, TX           82  58  86  69  84 /   0   0   5  30  50
CORSICANA, TX         85  60  86  71  85 /   0   0   5  20  40
TEMPLE, TX            86  64  87  70  89 /   0   0   5  20  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     85  60  90  70  88 /   0   5  10  50  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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