Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 302331
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
631 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions to continue at all TAF sites through the forecast
period. Surface winds will oscillate between a southwesterly and
southeasterly direction, but for simplicity, will continue to
prevail a south-southeast wind in the TAFs with speeds expected
to remain under 10 kts.

One area of isolated convection has developed along a remnant
outflow boundary/confluence zone in Oklahoma, with another area
of isolated to scattered convection over the Texas Panhandle.
These storms should begin to nocturnally decay shortly after
sunset and are not expected to impact the airports outside of some
scattered to broken anvil blow off tonight.

Carlaw

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 324 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016/
The main message for the upcoming holiday weekend and into next
week is continued hot with (mostly) dry conditions. There are
still low chances for rain Sunday afternoon through Monday but a
complete washout of outdoor activities is not expected. Heat
stress and heat illness and the threat of lightning will need to
be monitored by anyone outside this weekend.

The upper level ridge is currently centered to our west but will
slide southeast on Friday as a weak upper level trough, currently
over the Intermountain West, acts upon the ridge. A dry forecast
is expected through Saturday. However, will have to closely watch
for any possible remnant activity Friday morning approaching from
the north and/or northwest as the upper level flow will remain out
of the north. In addition, an isolated shower or storm cannot be
completely ruled out Friday afternoon in our far southeastern
counties. Low coverage and low confidence is not enough to warrant
more than a silent 10 PoP at this time.

On Saturday, the upper level trough will translate into the
Central Plains helping to push a front into the Southern Plains on
Sunday. There is decent agreement that convection will develop
near this front Saturday night into Sunday as the low level jet
increases to 30-40 kts. Some convection may occur ahead of the
front Sunday afternoon across Northwest Texas. Will carry low
chances for rain in our northwestern counties Sunday afternoon for
this possibility.

The convection along the front in Oklahoma will likely form into
a complex of storms that should move east and/or southeast. The
southern portions of this complex may graze our Red River counties
Sunday night into Monday morning. During this period, will
maintain 20-30 PoPs mainly north of Interstate 20. There is still
uncertainty if convection will be enough to push the front into
North Texas on Monday. For now, will keep south winds on Monday
and also keep low chances for rain across roughly the northern
half of the CWA. Any residual boundaries may also be enough to
spark isolated to scattered storms. Forecast soundings are not
supportive of a widespread severe weather threat if storms occur
on Monday but deep layer shear near 30 kts and CAPE values near
2000 J/kg is sufficient for some storm organization that may
support mainly a gusty wind threat. Brief heavy rain will also be
a threat.

After Monday, the heat continues to build with the upper level
ridge dominating the weather pattern and supporting a continued
dry pattern. By the middle of next week, most of North and Central
Texas is facing highs in the upper 90s to around 100 degrees with
heat index values nearing 105-107 degrees at times.

JLDunn

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    77  99  79  97  79 /   5  10  10   5   5
Waco                75  97  76  97  79 /   0  10  10   5   5
Paris               73  97  74  96  74 /  10  10  10   5   5
Denton              75  97  75  96  77 /   5  10  10   5   5
McKinney            74  96  75  95  77 /   5  10  10   5   5
Dallas              78  98  79  97  80 /   5  10  10   5   5
Terrell             74  96  75  96  76 /   5  10  10   5   5
Corsicana           75  98  76  96  77 /   5  10  10   5   5
Temple              74  97  74  96  76 /   0   5   5  10  10
Mineral Wells       73  97  73  97  75 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

90/05


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