Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 242340 AAA
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
640 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS TEXAS. SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION AT TIMES AND SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 7 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WILL
BECOME SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER 12Z SATURDAY. WINDS WILL
THEN BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH 5 TO 7 KNOTS BY 00Z SUNDAY.

58

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014/
WATER VAPOR LOOP THIS AFTERNOON SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THAT IS BUILDING EASTWARD INTO TEXAS. THIS
RIDGE WILL ENSURE MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND INCREASING
TEMPERATURES OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW WILL
REACH THE LOW 90S WEST TO THE MID 80S EAST. DFW AND WACO ARE
FORECAST TO REACH 90 DEGREES...WHICH WOULD BE A RECORD HIGH FOR
DFW. THE RECORD FOR DFW IS 89...WHILE THE RECORD AT WACO OF 94
LOOKS OUT OF REACH. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A TAD COOLER SUNDAY AND
MONDAY DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF OF THE GULF. THIS WILL
BRING MORE MOISTURE AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS...AND ALSO SOME MORNING
STRATUS ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOW TEMPS WILL CREEP
UP A LITTLE EACH DAY DUE TO THE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS/MOISTURE.

A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL U.S.
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL SEND A COLD FRONT INTO THE REGION
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. ANY CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY REMAIN IN OKLAHOMA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING WHERE
FORCING FROM THE TROUGH WILL BE AVAILABLE TO AID IN LIFT. THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THIS CONVECTION MAY SKIRT THE NORTHEAST ZONES
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE A LOW PROBABILITY. THE
FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH NORTH TEXAS DRY TUESDAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPS ONLY IN THE 70S OVER THE NW ZONES...BUT LOW-MID 80S ARE
EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SO QUICKLY...THE COLD FRONT
WILL LOSE ITS SUPPORT FOR CONTINUED SOUTHWARD PROGRESS. THE FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO STALL SOMEWHERE ACROSS NORTH OR CENTRAL TEXAS
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN FAIRLY ZONAL OVER
TEXAS...AND MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE RATHER AMBIGUOUS WITH THE
TIMING/STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVES THAT RIPPLE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH AMPLE MOISTURE AND A
STATIONARY FRONT IN PLACE OVER THE REGION AT THAT TIME...THE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SHORTWAVE ENERGY WOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
CONVECTION. THE GFS SUGGESTS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL PRESENT THE BEST
CHANCES OF RAIN...THE CANADIAN HIGHLIGHTS WEDNESDAY...AND THE
ECMWF IS FOCUSING IN ON THURSDAY. DUE TO SOME SERIOUS TIMING
DISCREPANCIES...WILL BROAD BRUSH LOW POPS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. WHEN THE MODELS CAN HONE IN ON A MORE CONSISTENT TIME
FRAME...THESE POPS CAN BE RAISED/LOWERED AS NEEDED.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO NEAR NORMAL BEHIND THE FRONT WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE LATE
NEXT WEEK...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES COOLING INTO THE
40S FOR LOWS AND 60S FOR HIGHS BY NEXT SATURDAY.

TR.92

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  64  90  67  89  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
WACO, TX              59  90  61  89  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
PARIS, TX             59  87  62  87  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
DENTON, TX            59  91  62  90  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          59  90  62  89  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALLAS, TX            65  90  67  89  66 /   0   0   0   0   0
TERRELL, TX           61  89  63  89  63 /   0   0   0   0   0
CORSICANA, TX         62  89  62  88  64 /   0   0   0   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            59  89  60  88  62 /   0   0   0   0   0
MINERAL WELLS, TX     59  92  61  90  60 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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