Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 291822
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
122 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.AVIATION...
TWO PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURES WILL AFFECT NORTH TEXAS WEATHER FOR
THIS TAF CYCLE. THE FIRST IS AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SPIRALING
AROUND THE ARKLATEX REGION. THIS SYSTEM BROUGHT FLOODING RAINS TO
MUCH OF THE METROPLEX LAST NIGHT...AND CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
BANDING FEATURES ON RADAR OVER EAST TEXAS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE DALLAS-
FORT WORTH AREA IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT THE CURRENT THINKING IS
THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE METROPLEX BY SUNSET.

A SECOND FEATURE TO KEEP OUR EYES ON IS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS
SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT...AND BOTH SHOULD BRING
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WE WILL INTRODUCE
VCTS IN THE METROPLEX AROUND 30/05Z THEN INCLUDE A PERIOD OF
PREVAILING TS SATURDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION SHOULD PUSH SOUTH
OF THE METROPLEX MID MORNING SATURDAY WITH THE FRONT...THEN
AROUND MID DAY AT KACT. MVFR CIGS AND NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

30

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 416 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015/
A POTENT SHORTWAVE...THE LAST IN A LONG LINE OF SOUTHWEST FLOW
EVENTS...INVADED NORTH TEXAS LATE THURSDAY. TRAINING CONVECTION
WITH THE ASSOCIATED MCS HAS RESULTED IN OVERNIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF MORE THAN 3 INCHES IN AND NEAR THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX.
AREAS IN WEST AND NORTHWEST DALLAS HAVE TALLIED 4 TO 5 INCHES...
RESULTING IN SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING. THE MAIN LINE OF
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE PLODDING INTO EAST TEXAS TODAY...BUT AN
EXPANSIVE STRATIFORM RAIN REGION WILL PERSIST IN ITS WAKE. BY 4
AM...THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD HAD REACHED GRAHAM...
BRECKENRIDGE...AND EASTLAND.

ALTHOUGH SUBSIDENCE WILL INITIALLY SUPPRESS REDEVELOPMENT TODAY...
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND DEEP MOIST ADVECTION HAS ALREADY ENSUED ACROSS
WEST TEXAS...AND AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES WILL SOAR TO NEAR
2000J/KG. AFTERNOON ACTIVITY IN NORTH TEXAS SHOULD BE PRIMARILY
SCATTERED...BUT A FEW STRONG/SEVERE CELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE...
MAINLY ACROSS FAR WESTERN ZONES. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR INITIATION
WILL BE AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL STRETCH FROM
LUBBOCK TO OKLAHOMA CITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONTAL
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CONGEAL INTO A LINEAR MCS THAT WILL SURGE
THROUGH NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
THIS MAY APPEAR TO BE YET ANOTHER WIDESPREAD NOCTURNAL RAIN
EVENT...LIKE WE HAVE SEEN MULTIPLE TIMES THIS WEEK...BUT THIS ONE
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SIGNIFICANT LATE SEASON COLD FRONT. THE
850MB BOUNDARY WILL BE CLOSE ON THE HEELS OF THE SURFACE FRONT...
ASSURING A MUCH THINNER LINE OF CONVECTION THAN WHAT WE
EXPERIENCED EARLY THIS MORNING. AND WITH VEERING FLOW ALOFT...THE
SPEED OF THE MCS SHOULD LIMIT THE DURATION OF PRECIPITATION AT ANY
ONE LOCATION. REGARDLESS...THE ENTIRE REGION REMAINS
WATERLOGGED...AND ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL COULD QUICKLY RE-
AGGRAVATE FLOODING ISSUES. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY.

THE COLD FRONT WILL STEADILY MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. CLOUDS MAY LINGER...AND WITH UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW-
LEVEL COLD ADVECTION...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY MAY
REMAIN IN THE 70S IN MANY LOCATIONS. RAIN CHANCES WILL STEADILY
DECREASE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SUBTROPICAL RIDGING BUILDS IN
FROM THE WEST AT LONG LAST. TROUGHINESS WILL PERSIST IN THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...WHICH WILL KEEP SOME LOW DAYTIME RAIN CHANCES
AS FAR WEST AS EAST TEXAS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BUT FOR
THE BULK OF TEXAS...NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
RAIN-FREE WEATHER AND A LONG-AWAITED CHANCE TO DRY OUT.

25


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  84  68  80  64  82 /  30  60  60  30  10
WACO, TX              85  68  82  63  82 /  30  50  60  40  20
PARIS, TX             80  67  77  62  79 /  60  50  60  30  20
DENTON, TX            82  66  78  61  81 /  30  60  60  20  10
MCKINNEY, TX          82  67  79  61  80 /  30  60  60  30  10
DALLAS, TX            84  69  81  64  82 /  30  60  60  30  10
TERRELL, TX           84  68  80  63  82 /  40  50  60  30  20
CORSICANA, TX         83  68  81  65  81 /  30  50  60  40  20
TEMPLE, TX            84  68  81  63  82 /  30  40  60  50  30
MINERAL WELLS, TX     82  66  78  61  80 /  30  70  60  30  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR TXZ091>095-
100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.


&&

$$



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