Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 221109
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
609 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.AVIATION...
THE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREAD IS SIMILAR IN THE DALLAS-FORT
WORTH METROPLEX TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY...AND SIMILAR MOISTURE
PROFILES IN THE LOWER LEVELS SUGGESTS THAT SOME MINOR VISIBILITY
REDUCTIONS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 14Z. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE
BRIEF PERIOD OF 5-6SM IN THE METRO AREA TAFS. FOR KACT...PERSISTENT
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS HAS THUS FAR KEPT VISIBILITIES IN VFR RANGE.
BRIEF MVFR IS STILL POSSIBLE BUT LESS PROBABLE THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT. WILL LIKELY KEEP A BRIEF PERIOD OF 5SM IN THE FORECAST
FOR THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION IN THE
FORECASTS.

30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014/
HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
TODAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THESE CLOUDS
SHOULD LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT THIS MORNING FOR MOST OF THE REGION
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EASTERN ZONES WHERE SOME PATCHY FOG IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
APPROACHING TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES TODAY. RAIN CHANCES
WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
HOWEVER...MEAGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT
SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT OVERALL. THEREFORE...WE WILL KEEP ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MENTIONED ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH
TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING.

THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. THIS
RIDGE WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR AND WARM CONDITIONS TO NORTH TEXAS
ON THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HIGHS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE
MAINLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 80S WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
UPPER 50S AND 60S.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
THE RIDGE BUILDING TOWARD THE EAST COAST AND A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH
DEVELOPING IN THE WEST. THE GULF WILL FINALLY FULLY OPEN UP EARLY
NEXT WEEK WITH DEEP LEE TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.
THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WILL LIFT FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY AND ALLOW A COLD FRONT TO MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT IN NORTH TEXAS
WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING WARM AIR
FROM THE MEXICAN PLATEAU WHICH WILL MOST LIKELY KEEP A STOUT CAP
IN PLACE. FOR NOW WE WILL INCLUDE ONLY 20 PERCENT POPS IN THE FORECAST
ON TUESDAY.

79

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  82  61  80  62  83 /   0  10  20  10  10
WACO, TX              83  57  82  56  84 /   0   5  10  10  10
PARIS, TX             78  53  74  55  79 /   0  10  20  10  10
DENTON, TX            82  57  80  58  83 /   5  20  20  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          80  55  80  55  84 /   0  20  20  10  10
DALLAS, TX            81  61  80  63  82 /   0  10  20  10  10
TERRELL, TX           80  56  80  56  82 /   0  10  20  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         81  57  80  58  84 /   0   5  10  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            84  57  80  56  84 /   0   5  10  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     82  58  80  57  87 /   5  20  20  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





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