Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 251030
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
430 AM CST THU DEC 25 2014

.DISCUSSION...
IT WILL BE A WINDY AND MILD CHRISTMAS DAY ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. A LEE SIDE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN TODAY IN RESPONSE TO
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASING TO 20 TO 25 MPH BY MIDDAY WITH SOME GUSTS TO 35 MPH.
THUS HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR AREAS
ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A PARIS TO CORSICANA TO TEMPLE LINE. HIGH
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND WEST OF A GAINESVILLE
TO CLEBURNE TO LAMPASAS. WE WILL BE ISSUING A GRASS FIRE DANGER
STATEMENT FOR THOSE AREAS.AFTER A CHILLY START THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO THE UPPER 30S AT DAYBREAK...EXPECT
MOST AREAS TO REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S THIS AFTERNOON.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL TAP SOME MOISTURE AND BRING LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. LOWS TOMORROW MORNING WILL
BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES WARMER THAN THEY WILL BE THIS MORNING. WE WILL
SEE SOME LOW RAIN CHANCES EAST OF I-35/I-35E FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 60S.

A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES LATE TOMORROW
EVENING AND MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES BY DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. THIS WILL MARK THE END OF ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR AT LEAST A WEEK. WE WILL HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN
AREA WIDE FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE GENERALLY 1/4 INCH
OR LESS...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE EAST. RAIN CHANCES
WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY AND THEN END ACROSS ALL BUT THE
SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE LOW RAIN CHANCES THAT LINGER
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD WILL END BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTREMELY COLD AIR WILL SURGE DOWN THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A 1058MB HIGH SINKS SOUTH. ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA TUESDAY. WELL BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE
CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE ECMWF AND GFS HANDLE AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR SOUTHWEST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR
SOUTHWEST WHILE AN ARCTIC AIR MASS IS ALREADY IN PLACE IS A
FAVORABLE SET UP FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION ISSUES ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS. PRECIPITATION TYPES AND AMOUNTS THIS FAR OUT ARE
EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO PREDICT. FOR NOW HAVE KEPT LOW POPS/QPFS.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1119 PM CST WED DEC 24 2014/
DEEPENING LEE-SIDE TROUGH DURING THIS FORECAST WILL RESULT IN
INCREASED SOUTHERLY WINDS ON CHRISTMAS DAY. SPEEDS WILL PICKUP
AFTER MID MORNING WITH 18016G26KT UNTIL SUNSET...THEN 15-20 KNOTS
OVERNIGHT. THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO TAP ONTO GULF
MOISTURE AND TRANSPORT IT NORTH QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AS THE LLJ
PEAKS 40-45 KNOTS. EXPECTING VFR SKIES UNTIL 26/05-06Z...THEN
MVFR CIGS OVC015 AT KACT AND OVC022 OVER THE METROPLEX. IN THE
KDFW EXTENDED...WE WILL BRING CIGS DOWN TO OVC013 WITH A POTENTIAL
FOR IFR CIGS AROUND 26/12Z. 75


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  62  49  63  46  48 /   0   5  10  40  30
WACO, TX              63  48  65  51  51 /   0   5  10  40  40
PARIS, TX             60  45  59  50  50 /   0  10  20  60  50
DENTON, TX            62  48  61  42  47 /   0   5  10  40  30
MCKINNEY, TX          61  48  60  46  48 /   0  10  20  40  30
DALLAS, TX            62  50  62  48  49 /   0  10  10  40  30
TERRELL, TX           61  48  62  51  51 /   0  10  20  40  40
CORSICANA, TX         63  50  65  54  54 /   0  10  20  40  40
TEMPLE, TX            63  49  67  53  53 /   0   5  10  40  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     62  46  63  39  45 /   0   5  10  30  30

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ091>095-100>105-115>121-129>134-141>146-156>161.


&&

$$

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