Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 280026

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
726 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

The primary aviation weather concern this evening will be
scattered convection that should continue to impact the western Metroplex
TAF sites through at least 8 PM. These showers and storms are
primarily developing along and just behind a well defined outflow
boundary that was near a line from Bridgeport to Waxahachie at 7
PM. Gusty winds to 45 knots and even some small hail will be
possible with the stronger storms. The storms should begin to
weaken with the loss of surface heating.

We still expect a weak cold front to move through the area
overnight and Tuesday. The front will be a focus for additional
convection, especially during peak heating in the afternoon
Tuesday. The best coverage of storms will most likely be across
Central Texas.

Otherwise, expect VFR conditions outside of the thunderstorms
with scattered CU and scattered to broken high clouds.

Prevailing wind will be mainly from the northeast to east at
speeds below 12 knots.



Afternoon satellite imagery depicts a weakening yet persistent
TUTT low spinning across the Permian Basin and new convection
developing along a surface pre-frontal trough draped from
northeast Arkansas through North Texas. The main concern with
this forecast is the next 24-36 hours as this pre-frontal trough
and eventually a weak front impact our sensible weather.

Scattered thunderstorms have developed this afternoon and should
continue to increase in coverage through the early evening. Areas
along an axis of low-level convergence have seen towering cumulus
develop late this afternoon with the aid of diurnal heating.
Locations with high PWs of up to 1.9 inches, especially along and
north of I-20, continue to be the most favorable locations for
thunderstorms over the next few hours. Most of the area is also
uncapped, so it will not take much in the way of forcing to
initiate new convection. Even with the weak convergence along the
pre-frontal trough has been sufficient to generate fairly
substantial coverage in our northeast zones so far. Lightning of
course will be a hazard with any convection through the rest of
the evening. However, slow or borderline nonexistent storm
motions at 5 kts or less will mean that flooding is also a threat
from any of the heavy rain-producing thunderstorms.

The actual front, which appears to be draped through parts of
central OK and southern MO, will become increasingly diffuse as it
nears the area overnight and Tuesday morning. Such a weak, ill-
defined boundary should struggle to initiate much convection
especially with little to no support aloft and without the aid of
daytime heating. However, a few showers and possibly a
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out along the front early Tuesday
morning across parts of North TX including the Red River area. The
better chances will come on Tuesday afternoon where weak
convergence along the front will combine with daytime heating to
initiate additional scattered thunderstorms with the highest
coverage expected across Central TX. Lightning and localized
flooding will again be the primary concerns on Tuesday. Gusty
winds will be possible with thunderstorms as well but Theta-e
differences from the surface to mid levels will only be around
20-25K which should preclude a significant microburst threat.
Showers and storms should taper off from north to south by
Tuesday night.

The remainder of the week is expected to be hot and mostly dry.
The upper ridge, which has redeveloped across the Four Corners
region, will drift eastward and become centered over TX by the
end of the week. This will leave us positioned in northwest flow
aloft at times, which means we will need to keep an eye on MCS
activity across the Central Plains especially on Thursday and
Friday. However, steering flow aloft is progged to be weak, around
10 kts or so, and the better LLJ support seems to be located
northwest of our area. This may fuel MCS events in OK through the
end of the week, but have not seen much support that would allow
for these systems to be sustained into North TX. Have cautiously
removed PoPs for the end of week with the exception of Friday
along the Red River, although depending on model trends these may
be able to be removed in the near future.

The final forecast concern is the heat for the upcoming weekend
and early next week. With the upper ridge dominating our weather,
temperatures should climb to their highest values yet this year.
The century mark will be attainable at both DFW and Waco on
Sunday and Monday and potentially even on Saturday. In addition,
dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70 will yield afternoon heat
indices around 105 Saturday through Monday. With many outdoor
events expected for Independence Day, heat headlines may be
needed for the upcoming weekend.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    78  95  77  96  78 /  30  30  10  10  10
Waco                77  93  76  95  76 /  20  40  20  10  10
Paris               74  92  72  94  72 /  30  30  10  10  10
Denton              74  93  72  94  73 /  30  30  10  10  10
McKinney            74  92  72  94  74 /  30  30  10  10  10
Dallas              79  95  78  97  79 /  30  30  10  10  10
Terrell             75  93  73  95  74 /  30  30  10  10  10
Corsicana           77  94  76  95  75 /  20  30  20  10  10
Temple              75  93  75  94  73 /  10  40  20  10  10
Mineral Wells       74  93  73  94  71 /  20  30  10  10  10


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