Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 301138

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
638 AM CDT SAT JUL 30 2016

The thunderstorm complex over southwest Oklahoma continues to
weaken this morning. However, additional showers and storms are
developing over central Oklahoma as a weak impulse rotates around
the upper ridge centered over the 4-corners region. Subsidence
will increase as the ridge builds east over the next 24 hours,
which will limit thunderstorm potential over North Texas.
However, with abundant moisture still in place, we may see a few
isolated cells today before a multi-day hot and dry period sets

For the Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex, we have introduced VCSH for
the late afternoon hours, but at this time the feeling is that
thunderstorm probabilities are too low to mention in any of the taf
sites. We have stuck with a single-line forecast at KACT where
even lower probabilities for showers or storms exist.



One more day of low shower/storm chances before hot and dry
weather takes hold of the region to begin the week. Two areas of
convection were ongoing early this morning, one across the
Arklatex and another in the TX Panhandle. The complex that skirted
east TX has dissipated as of 3am but its associated outflow has
entered our eastern counties and caused a couple showers to
develop. The healthier convection in the TX Panhandle will persist
for a few more hours but will continue to weaken as it enters
southwest OK and nears the Lawton/Wichita Falls area and
encounters very unfavorable low level flow. Otherwise, a few
showers have attempted to develop across central TX oriented
roughly from Palestine to Waco. This appears to be due to weak low
level convergence in an area of slightly higher PWs of around
1.8-1.9 inches. Am not expecting much additional development in
this area and have maintained the 10% chance for showers in the
forecast overnight.

Redevelopment of showers and isolated storms is possible this
afternoon in areas mostly along and north of I-20. Remnant
diffuse outflow boundaries from overnight convection should be
sufficient to initiate at least a few storms near our Red River
counties which in turn may send outflows further south toward the
I-20 corridor resulting in new convection. Have included a 10%
chance for areas as far south as I-20 this afternoon including the
Metroplex as storm coverage should be sparse at best. Drier air
continues to infiltrate the region with the higher PWs shifting
eastward which should mean a further reduction in coverage of
activity as compared to yesterday or previous days.

Tonight, the upper low located just south of Brownsville, TX that
can be seen on water vapor imagery will begin drifting northward.
In the meantime, the 500mb ridge will begin intensifying as it
builds in from the east. Even though the upper low may encroach on
North and Central TX on Sunday, the strengthening of the mid-
level ridge should dominate the omega fields with subsidence
suppressing any chance of convection from the upper low feature.
Some sea breeze activity may be able to get going to our
southeast on Sunday afternoon, but would expect this to weaken
substantially and dissipate as it encounters the stronger
subsidence across our area. As a result, the forecast for Sunday
is hot and dry, which will also be the case for much of the
upcoming week.

The upper low should be shunted westward along the southern
periphery of the ridge aloft with the 500mb ridge continuing to
build across Texas through the middle of the week. In addition,
drier air will be advected in at low levels especially across the
western half of our area. These conditions will yield a stretch of
hot and dry days through most of the upcoming week with highs in
the upper 90s or low 100s with dewpoints mixing out to the low 60s
and even upper 50s across our western areas. Resultant heat index
values will be held below 105 since moisture content will be
reduced during this time.

For the extended forecast, have sided with the drier ECMWF which
keeps the ridge firmly in place across the Central Plains through
the upcoming weekend. The GFS attempts to flatten the ridge and
usher a weak front into the Southern Plains by Saturday. This
solution appears much less realistic but it`s something to keep an
eye on as it would mean as least a small chance for rain within
the next 10 days. With little/no rain expected in the near future,
many areas should begin (or continue) to dry out over the course
of the next week.



Dallas-Ft. Worth    97  79  98  80  99 /  10   5   5   5   5
Waco                98  77  99  77  99 /   5   5  10   5   5
Paris               95  76  97  76  99 /  20  10  10   5   5
Denton              96  76  98  77  98 /  10   5   5   5   5
McKinney            96  76  98  77  98 /  10   5  10   5   5
Dallas              98  80  98  80  99 /  10   5  10   5   5
Terrell             96  77  98  77  98 /  10   5  10   5   5
Corsicana           97  77  98  77  99 /   5   5  10   5   5
Temple              97  75  98  75  99 /   5   5  10   5   5
Mineral Wells       98  75  98  75 100 /  10   5   5   5   5


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