Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 022320
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
620 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.AVIATION...
RIDGING ALOFT CONTINUES TO KEEP A LID ON CONVECTION ACROSS NORTH
TEXAS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW ISOLATED CELLS WHICH SHOULD
REMAIN EAST OF ALL TAF SITES. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VFR WHILE SURFACE WINDS REMAIN SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY AROUND 10
KTS FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODELS ARE
ONCE AGAIN ADVERTISING ENOUGH OF A MOIST LAYER SPREADING OVER
SOUTHERN LOCATIONS TO KEEP A TEMPO MVFR CIG GROUP IN AT KACT FROM
13Z TO 16Z. OTHERWISE...THE QUIET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS TAF CYCLE.

30

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015/
WATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOW THE
PERSISTENT MID LEVEL CIRCULATION ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS. THIS
FEATURE HAS RESULTED IN DAILY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS...BUT A FEW TYPICALLY MOVE INTO OUR
SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES BY LATE AFTERNOON. TODAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN IN PROGRESS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...SO WILL HAVE SOME ISOLATED POPS IN THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS IN OUR AREA WITH ANY STORMS.

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS ALTHOUGH THE WEAK MID LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL MOVE AWAY FROM
SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A DECLINE IN
THE AMOUNT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS
AND OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES. OTHERWISE...RIDGING ALOFT WILL HELP
KEEP NORTH TEXAS MOSTLY DRY AND WARM.

THE RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS A COUPLE OF STRONG SHORTWAVES DIG THROUGH THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY WHICH IS LIKELY TO GET HUNG UP ACROSS OKLAHOMA
FOR A DAY OR SO. AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
SLIGHTLY WESTWARD...THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA BY
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD MEAN INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

DUNN

&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  75  95  76  95  78 /   5   5   5   5   5
WACO, TX              73  94  74  95  76 /  10  10   5  10   5
PARIS, TX             70  94  71  94  74 /   5   5   5  10   5
DENTON, TX            73  94  73  95  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
MCKINNEY, TX          73  94  73  94  76 /   5   5   5   5   5
DALLAS, TX            76  95  77  95  78 /   5   5   5   5   5
TERRELL, TX           72  93  75  94  76 /   5   5   5  10   5
CORSICANA, TX         73  94  74  95  75 /  10  10   5  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            71  92  72  93  75 /  10  10   5  10  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     70  94  72  94  74 /   5   5   5   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$


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