Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 011723
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1223 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.AVIATION...
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVER NORTH TEXAS SHOULD SUPPRESS MOST
CONVECTION TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CONVECTION THAT MAY MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH AND EAST OF WACO.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
SCATTERED DAYTIME CU AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS.

A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. DAYTIME
WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 12 TO 16 KNOTS ALONG WITH SOME
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS. WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING SHOULD BE BETWEEN 8 TO 12 KNOTS.

79

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 249 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015/
A LITTLE QUIETER MORNING AS COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...AS THE MAIN
LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST TOWARD THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD AND UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR
WITH OCCASIONAL CIRRUS PASSING OVERHEAD AND MOVING SOUTHEAST.
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
TODAY TO ALLOW SLIGHT CHANCES FOR DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. A STRONG SOUTHERLY SURFACE GRADIENT WILL RESULT
IN SEASONABLY HOT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S MOST LOCATIONS. IN ADDITION...THIS IS A
PATTERN CONDUCIVE FOR A SEABREEZE FRONT TO MOVE INLAND ALONG THE
UPPER TX COAST AND IGNITE THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY REACH INTO OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET THIS EVENING. A LITTLE LESS DRY AIR
WILL EXIST IN THE MID LEVELS TODAY WHICH WILL LIMIT THETA-E LAPSE
RATES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE MICROBURST. AS A RESULT...WE
ONLY EXPECT SUB-SEVERE GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH ANY STRONGER STORMS.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUBSIDENCE. THURSDAY WILL BE
ANOTHER DRY...BREEZY AND HOT DAY AND MINIMUM HUMIDITY VALUES MAY
GET LOW ENOUGH ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL
DROP SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST
BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL DROP TOWARD THE OZARKS ON
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BREAK DOWN THE UPPER HIGH OVER NORTH TEXAS AND
ALLOW SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP OFF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
OKLAHOMA INTO MISSOURI THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A 35-45 KT LLJ WILL
FEED INTO THE ELEVATED 850MB FRONT WELL NORTH OF THE RED RIVER
WITH MEAN STEERING CURRENTS PUSHING THE MCS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
RED RIVER OVERNIGHT PER FORWARD-PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS. A
SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE SE ACROSS THE OZARKS ON FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.

BEST PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
RED RIVER VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOW CHANCES
EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-20 CORRIDOR. THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF STRONG NW FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN OVER AREAS EAST OF I-35 THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH THE BEST CHANCES JUST NORTH-EAST OF THE DFW
METRO. THE UPPER FLOW DOES DAMPEN SOMEWHAT INTO SUNDAY WITH ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS EAST TX AND ACROSS OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES.
COOLER HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID-UPPER 80S WILL OCCUR ALONG AND NORTH
OF I-20 FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH LOWER 90S ELSEWHERE. THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN DAMPENS QUITE A BIT HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK AS A STRENGTHENING
UPPER HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS. THE NET RESULT WILL
BE SEASONABLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN THE
90S AND AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES PUSHING THE CENTURY MARK.

05/



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  94  75  94  76  92 /   5   5   5  10  30
WACO, TX              93  75  94  75  93 /  10   5   5   5  10
PARIS, TX             92  74  91  73  88 /   5   5  10  40  70
DENTON, TX            94  74  93  74  91 /   5   5  10  20  30
MCKINNEY, TX          93  75  94  74  91 /   5   5  10  20  40
DALLAS, TX            95  77  94  76  93 /   5   5   5  10  30
TERRELL, TX           93  75  94  75  92 /   5   5   5  10  20
CORSICANA, TX         92  74  92  74  92 /  10   5   5   5  10
TEMPLE, TX            92  73  93  73  92 /  20  10   5   0  10
MINERAL WELLS, TX     94  72  94  73  94 /   5   5   5  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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