Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 281631
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1031 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
THE STEADY INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST
HAS ALLOWED US TO REMOVE A FEW MORE COUNTIES FROM THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY. FOR THIS UPDATE WE WILL REMOVE HENDERSON...
NAVARRO...LIMESTONE AND FALLS. KAUFMAN AND VAN ZANDT WILL MOST
LIKELY BE REMOVED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO SINCE TEMPS ARE AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING CURRENTLY.

NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

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&&


.PREV UPDATE...
.UPDATE...
12Z FWD SOUNDING SHOWS AN IMPRESSIVE WARM NOSE (37 DEGREES)AROUND
5400 FT AGL. EVEN THOUGH THE WARM NOSE IS STRONG...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION REMAIN IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 20S. THEREFORE...WE EXPECT PERIODS OF FREEZING
DRIZZLE/LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS IN THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE MIDDLE 30S. SINCE WE DO NOT EXPECT
ANY ADDITIONAL COOLING TODAY...WE WILL REMOVE THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR LEON...ROBERTSON...MILAM...ANDERSON AND FREESTONE. WE
WILL LEAVE THE REMAINDER OF THE COUNTIES IN THE ADVISORY BUT MOST
LIKELY START TRIMMING ROWS OF COUNTIES FROM SOUTHEAST TO
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY.

79

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015/
EARLY MORNING RADAR LOOPS INDICATE A PERSISTENT AREA OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ALONG AND NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR...WHICH CONTINUES TO SHIFT SLOWLY NORTH. THIS
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN TRANSITIONING FROM LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET TO
FREEZING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT FREEZING RAIN. ADDITIONAL AREAS OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION CAN BE SEEN CREEPING
NORTH...SO LULLS IN WINTRY PRECIP WILL LIKELY REMAIN SHORT-LIVED.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN-MOST COUNTIES RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...SO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH NOON. SOUTHERN
COUNTIES ARE EXPECTED TO SEE TEMPERATURES CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING
THIS AFTERNOON...SO THE ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF NORTH TEXAS AT NOON TODAY. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THROUGH 6 PM.

THE SHORTWAVE THAT GENERATED OUR IMPRESSIVE SNOWFALL YESTERDAY HAS
RACED OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. THE OVERRUNNING PATTERN
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CONTINUING WINTER WEATHER HAS NOW DEVELOPED
IN ITS WAKE. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND IN RESPONSE
TO A DEEPENING UPPER LOW NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST...WHICH ITSELF
WILL GENERATE PERSISTENT MOIST RETURN FLOW ON TOP OF OUR COLD
SURFACE AIRMASS. FREEZING PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE A GRADUAL
SOUTH-TO-NORTH TRANSITION TO ALL LIQUID TODAY AS TEMPERATURES
SLOWLY CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING. THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME IS NOT ALL
THAT STRONG TODAY BUT SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW ALL PRECIP
TO FALL IN LIQUID FORM THIS EVENING AS TEMPS CLIMB AT OR ABOVE
FREEZING. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN-MOST COUNTIES
WHICH RECEIVED THE MOST SNOWFALL. THIS AREA MAY HAVE SOME
LINGERING LIGHT FREEZING PRECIPITATION DURING THE EVENING HOURS.
WE WILL ASSESS TRENDS LATER TODAY...AND POSSIBLY EXTEND THE
ADVISORY PAST 6 PM ACROSS PART OF THE REGION IF TEMPERATURES
WARRANT IT. AT THIS TIME...THE 6 PM EXPIRATION TIME WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE.

A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
HOWEVER...CLOUDY AND CHILLY CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED...WITH
OCCASIONAL BOUTS WITH DRIZZLE OR LIGHT SHOWERS. THE UPPER LOW WILL
OPEN UP INTO A PRONOUNCED UPPER TROUGH...AND MAKE ITS WAY EAST
TOWARDS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CONUS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. ONE DISTINCT PIECE OF ENERGY WILL EJECT EASTWARD FROM
THE VICINITY OF THE MAIN SYSTEM ACROSS THE PLAINS ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THIS
TIME...BRINGING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. ADDED LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE...COMBINED
WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY DUE TO LOW LEVEL WARM...MOIST AIR...WILL
ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES THE REGION. THIS TROUGH WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER
BLAST OF COLD AIR SOUTHWARD ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD OF NEAR FREEZING CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT
BEFORE ALL OF THE PRECIP HAS EXITED THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR A BRIEF ROUND OF SLEET OR SNOW ON WEDNESDAY. AT
THIS TIME IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS
WOULD OCCUR DUE TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. COLD AND
DRY CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS THE
TROUGH HEADS FOR THE EAST COAST AND DRY NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS
OVERHEAD.

30



&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  34  34  47  39  50 /  60  40  40  50  40
WACO, TX              39  37  52  42  56 /  60  40  40  50  40
PARIS, TX             35  34  46  38  48 /  60  50  50  60  50
DENTON, TX            33  33  45  36  49 /  60  40  40  50  40
MCKINNEY, TX          34  34  46  38  49 /  60  50  40  50  40
DALLAS, TX            36  36  48  40  52 /  60  40  40  50  40
TERRELL, TX           38  36  49  41  52 /  60  50  40  60  50
CORSICANA, TX         40  38  51  44  56 /  50  40  40  60  50
TEMPLE, TX            41  39  54  44  60 /  50  40  40  50  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     33  33  48  37  50 /  60  30  30  40  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>134-141>145.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR TXZ156>159.


&&

$$

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