Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX

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FXUS64 KFWD 282040
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
340 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.DISCUSSION...

...Tornado Watch in effect for areas west and northwest of the
Dallas-Fort Worth Metroplex...

Convection continues to increase over the Texas Panhandle and
South Plains in advance of a deep upper level low, which was
centered over New Mexico this afternoon. Storms will gradually
spread eastward later this afternoon and this evening in the
eastward developing region of good forcing associated with the
upper low. Activity will likely initiate along an eastward moving
dryline, with individual storms moving generally north-northeast.
These storms will are expected to develop upscale into a linear
MCS, which will push east across North and Central Texas
overnight.

Meanwhile, a warm front has taken its time moving north, but
appears to have made it north of the I-20 corridor. The boundary
will continue to approach the Red River, and may become the focus
for a few isolated strong to severe storms. Discrete cells will
have the potential for producing large hail, damaging winds and
perhaps a tornado. The best potential for thunderstorms this
afternoon will likely be over our northwestern counties where the
strongest forcing will reside and the surface boundary will be
near.

As the line progresses east overnight, damaging straight-line
winds will be the primary threat. That said, decreasing
instability as surface heating wanes could be a factor that helps
mitigate the severe potential. The latest hi-res guidance
indicates a weakening trend as the line moves east of the I-35
corridor Wednesday morning. The dryline and/or lingering outflow
is likely to stall near the far-eastern counties as the upper low
continues trekking east across the Southern Plains. Another round
of good forcing associated with the upper low will help ignite
additional storms in the vicinity of the stalled boundary during
the peak heating hours Wednesday. Some of these storms may become
severe with large hail and damaging winds. The exact location of
the surface boundary will determine where storms initiate, and at
this time the highest POPs will be over the eastern-most counties
with lower POPs the farther west you go.

The upper low center will move east across Oklahoma Wednesday
night, which may generate isolated storms along the Red River. Due
to the expected low coverage, POPs will remain fairly low. There
could be an isolated hail threat due to the cold air aloft but the
overall severe threat Wednesday night appears low.

Thursday should be a nice day as the upper low moves east and a
cold front pushes through the region. This will be short-lived,
however, as the next upper level storm system drops quickly
southeast from the Pacific Northwest into the Four-Corners region,
bringing a quick return to south winds, moisture and warmer
weather Friday. This system looks like it will similarly generate
multiple rounds of convection from Saturday afternoon through
Sunday night. There is still some model uncertainty with regard to
the timing and exact path the system will take, but the latest
guidance hints that there will again be at least some threat of
severe weather this weekend. We may have to also consider the
threat for localized flooding to to the multiple precipitation
events expected this week.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1256 PM CDT Tue Mar 28 2017/
/18Z TAFs/

We continue to monitor the large and slow-moving upper level low
over the AZ/NM border at midday. Meanwhile, a surface warm front
was continuing to move through the DFW area airports and should
be in VCNTY of the Red River by mid-afternoon. Ongoing, elevated
convection was occurring well northwest across Western OK and the
TX/OK Panhandles.

Challenges will continue to be sporadic MVFR cigs the next few
hours as mixing and heating continue to increase in advance of
height falls and large-scale ascent expected to arrive tonight.
VFR cigs with SE or ESE winds 15-20 knot should prevail into this
evening. There could be some VCTS/VCSH potential after 20Z, but
right now coverage and confidence were not high and will leave it
out of the TAF for now. Most discrete TSRA should remain well
west-northwest of the airports through the evening hours.

A linear convective system should develop across West-Central TX
mid-late evening, then progress east into TAF sites between mostly
8Z-12Z, though western Metro airports FTW/AFW could see activity
arrive 1/2-1 hours sooner. Will carry prevailing TSRA with MVFR
cigs at that time. By sunrise and after, the bulk of the QLCS will
be east of all airports with VCSH and low VFR cigs. Winds will
gradually veer south-southwest 10 to 15 knots behind the the
departing convective system with VFR conditions continue through
midday Wed.

05/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    65  83  54  69  52 / 100  40  10   5   5
Waco                65  82  54  73  50 / 100  50   5   5   5
Paris               64  76  54  66  47 /  80  70  30  10  10
Denton              63  80  51  67  47 / 100  40  10   5   5
McKinney            65  78  53  67  48 / 100  50  10  10   5
Dallas              66  82  55  69  52 / 100  50  10  10   5
Terrell             66  79  55  69  48 / 100  60  20  10   5
Corsicana           66  80  56  71  51 /  90  60  20  10   5
Temple              64  82  54  75  51 /  90  50   5   5   5
Mineral Wells       57  81  49  69  47 / 100  20  10   5   5

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


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