Soaring Guidance
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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014
UXUS97 KGJT 141243
SRGGJT

Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Grand Junction, Colorado
0543 MST Sunday, January 14, 2018

This forecast is for Sunday, January 14, 2018:

If the trigger temperature of 50.8 F/10.5 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Poor
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 193 ft/min (1.0 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 7719 ft MSL (2880 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 47.0 F/8.8 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... None
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 6227 ft MSL (1388 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Monday 01/15....... Fair

Wave Soaring Index............................. Not available

Remarks...

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 07:31:53 / 17:13:49 MST
Total possible sunshine........... 9 hr 41 min 55 sec (581 min 55 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:23:14 MST... 29.74 degrees

Upper air data from rawinsonde observation taken on 01/14/2018 at 0500 MST

Freezing level.................. 5094 ft MSL (255 ft AGL)
Additional freezing level....... 7241 ft MSL (2402 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 16813 ft MSL (11974 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 10890 ft MSL (6051 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +12.9
K index......................... -12.4

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000  -64.0 -83.2   310   58   30   3.2   1.8   96.8 206.2    50.0      M    M
 45000  -63.1 -81.6   330   68   35   4.0   2.2   73.2 163.8    39.4      M    M
 40000  -67.7 -89.9   320   65   34   5.2   2.8   42.3 108.2    22.1      M    M
 38000  -63.3 -81.9   320   58   30   9.2   5.1   40.1 104.2    21.3      M    M
 36000  -58.6 -73.5   325   53   27   7.0   3.8   38.3 100.9    20.6      M    M
 34000  -54.0 -65.2   325   38   20   6.8   3.8   35.6  96.1    19.4      M    M
 32000  -49.1 -56.4   350   40   21   8.3   4.6   34.4  93.9    19.0      M    M
 30000  -44.0 -47.2   345   38   20   8.7   4.8   33.4  92.1    18.7      M    M
 29000  -41.3 -42.3   345   38   20   8.8   4.8   33.0  91.3    18.6      M    M
 28000  -38.6 -37.5   340   38   20   9.3   5.1   32.7  90.8    18.7      M    M
 27000  -35.8 -32.4   340   38   20   9.3   5.1   32.5  90.5    18.8      M    M
 26000  -33.0 -27.4   340   38   20   9.3   5.1   32.4  90.4    18.9      M    M
 25000  -30.3 -22.5   345   38   20   9.3   5.1   32.2  89.9    19.0      M    M
 24000  -27.5 -17.5   350   42   21   7.5   4.1   31.9  89.4    19.0      M    M
 23000  -25.4 -13.7   350   44   23   7.1   3.9   30.9  87.7    18.4      M    M
 22000  -23.3  -9.9   350   41   21   7.1   3.9   29.9  85.8    17.8      M    M
 21000  -21.1  -6.0   345   38   20   7.0   3.8   29.0  84.1    17.2      M    M
 20000  -18.6  -1.5   345   35   18   9.0   4.9   28.5  83.3    17.0      M    M
 19500  -17.3   0.9   340   35   18   9.0   4.9   28.4  83.0    17.0      M    M
 19000  -15.3   4.5   335   34   17   5.5   3.0   28.1  82.7    16.9      M    M
 18500  -14.8   5.4   335   33   17   7.1   3.9   27.1  80.7    16.1      M    M
 18000  -13.5   7.7   335   33   17   7.2   4.0   26.9  80.3    16.0      M    M
 17500  -13.2   8.2   335   32   17  -1.0  -0.6   25.5  77.9    14.8      M    M
 17000  -12.7   9.1   335   32   16   6.4   3.5   24.4  76.0    14.0      M    M
 16500  -11.7  10.9   335   31   16   6.5   3.6   23.8  74.9    13.6      M    M
 16000  -10.6  12.9   335   31   16   8.2   4.5   23.4  74.2    13.4      M    M
 15500   -9.4  15.1   340   30   15   7.7   4.2   23.2  73.7    13.2      M    M
 15000   -8.4  16.9   345   29   15   6.1   3.4   22.6  72.7    12.8      M    M
 14500   -7.4  18.7   350   29   15   6.9   3.8   22.1  71.8    12.3      M    M
 14000   -6.4  20.5   355   29   15   6.8   3.7   21.6  71.0    12.0      M    M
 13500   -5.4  22.3   355   26   13   6.8   3.7   21.1  70.0    11.6      M    M
 13000   -4.4  24.1   355   23   12   6.8   3.7   20.6  69.1    11.2      M    M
 12500   -3.3  26.1   355   21   11   6.8   3.7   20.2  68.3    10.8      M    M
 12000   -2.3  27.9   355   18    9   6.6   3.6   19.7  67.5    10.5      M    M
 11500   -1.3  29.7   355   18    9   3.5   1.9   19.3  66.7    10.1      M    M
 11000   -1.5  29.3   355   18    9  -6.6  -3.6   17.5  63.6     8.5      M    M
 10500   -2.0  28.4   355   18    9   2.9   1.6   15.4  59.7     6.5      M    M
 10250   -2.0  28.4   355   17    9   1.1   0.6   14.7  58.5     5.8      M    M
 10000   -2.1  28.2   005   14    7  -3.1  -1.7   14.0  57.1     5.0      M    M
  9750   -2.7  27.1   010   11    6  -9.6  -5.2   12.6  54.7     3.7      M    M
  9500   -3.3  26.1   025    9    4   0.9   0.5   11.3  52.4     2.4      M    M
  9250   -2.7  27.1   045    7    4   9.9   5.4   11.2  52.1     2.3      M    M
  9000   -2.1  28.2   070    7    4   7.3   4.0   11.1  51.9     2.1      M    M
  8750   -1.5  29.3   075    6    3   8.6   4.7   10.9  51.6     2.0      M    M
  8500   -0.9  30.4   080    6    3   4.9   2.7   10.7  51.3     1.9      M    M
  8250   -0.7  30.7   085    5    2   1.6   0.9   10.2  50.3     1.3      M    M
  8000   -0.6  30.9   090    4    2   2.5   1.4    9.6  49.3     0.7      M    M
  7750   -0.4  31.3   105    4    2   2.2   1.2    9.0  48.2     0.2      M    M
  7500   -0.2  31.6   115    5    3   2.3   1.3    8.4  47.2    -0.4    185  0.9
  7250   -0.0  32.0   125    6    3   2.3   1.3    7.8  46.1    -1.0    172  0.9
  7000    0.1  32.2   135    7    3   2.2   1.2    7.3  45.1    -1.5    160  0.8
  6750    0.3  32.5   130    7    4   2.7   1.5    6.7  44.1    -2.1    147  0.7
  6500    0.6  33.1   125    7    4   4.6   2.5    6.2  43.2    -2.5    132  0.7
  6250    1.0  33.8   120    8    4   6.0   3.3    5.9  42.6    -2.9    112  0.6
  6000    1.4  34.5   115    8    4   4.3   2.4    5.6  42.0    -3.2     93  0.5
  5750    1.8  35.2   120    8    4   9.4   5.2    5.3  41.5    -3.5     73  0.4
  5500    2.2  36.0   125    7    4  -9.2  -5.1    4.9  40.9    -3.9     54  0.3
  5250    0.5  32.9   135    7    4 -21.7 -11.9    2.5  36.6    -6.3     96  0.5
  5000   -0.0  32.0   125    6    3   7.5   4.1    1.2  34.2    -7.6    105  0.5

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *

           01/14/2018 at 0800 MST          |       01/14/2018 at 1100 MST
                                           |
K index... -14.1  LI... +7.2               | K index... -13.6  LI... +7.7
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... 0.0                    | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... 0.0
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -64.8 -84.6  330  46 24  -0.1  -0.1 | -65.0 -85.0  330  47 24  -0.6  -0.3
 45000 -65.0 -85.0  325  57 29  -0.5  -0.3 | -65.9 -86.6  330  57 29  -0.7  -0.4
 40000 -66.4 -87.5  335  46 24  -1.0  -0.5 | -66.9 -88.4  340  36 19  -0.8  -0.4
 38000 -63.8 -82.8  340  43 22   7.8   4.3 | -64.0 -83.2  340  33 17   8.3   4.5
 36000 -59.1 -74.4  340  40 21   7.8   4.3 | -59.1 -74.4  340  34 17   8.3   4.5
 34000 -53.7 -64.7  340  39 20   8.3   4.6 | -53.5 -64.3  340  35 18   8.3   4.6
 32000 -48.7 -55.7  340  39 20   8.3   4.6 | -48.5 -55.3  340  37 19   8.4   4.6
 30000 -43.5 -46.3  340  39 20   9.2   5.0 | -43.2 -45.8  340  37 19   9.2   5.0
 29000 -40.7 -41.3  340  39 20   9.2   5.0 | -40.5 -40.9  340  37 19   9.2   5.0
 28000 -38.0 -36.4  340  39 20   9.2   5.0 | -37.7 -35.9  340  37 19   9.2   5.0
 27000 -35.2 -31.4  340  39 20   9.1   5.0 | -35.0 -31.0  340  36 18   8.8   4.8
 26000 -32.5 -26.5  345  39 20   9.1   5.0 | -32.4 -26.3  340  35 18   8.8   4.8
 25000 -29.8 -21.6  345  39 20   9.1   5.0 | -29.8 -21.6  340  34 17   8.8   4.8
 24000 -27.2 -17.0  345  38 19   7.4   4.0 | -27.2 -17.0  340  32 17   7.7   4.2
 23000 -24.9 -12.8  350  35 18   7.6   4.1 | -24.9 -12.8  335  31 16   7.8   4.3
 22000 -22.7  -8.9  350  33 17   7.5   4.1 | -22.5  -8.5  335  29 15   7.8   4.3
 21000 -20.5  -4.9  350  31 16   6.6   3.6 | -20.3  -4.5  335  28 14   6.9   3.8
 20000 -18.5  -1.3  350  29 15   6.6   3.6 | -17.7   0.1  330  26 13   7.0   3.8
 19500 -17.0   1.4  345  27 14   6.6   3.6 | -16.7   1.9  325  25 13   7.0   3.8
 19000 -16.1   3.0  345  26 14   6.8   3.7 | -15.6   3.9  325  24 13   6.6   3.6
 18500 -15.0   5.0  345  26 13   6.9   3.8 | -14.7   5.5  325  24 12   6.5   3.6
 18000 -14.0   6.8  345  26 13   6.9   3.8 | -13.7   7.3  325  23 12   6.5   3.6
 17500 -12.9   8.8  345  26 13   7.3   4.0 | -12.8   9.0  325  23 12   6.3   3.5
 17000 -11.9  10.6  345  26 13   7.3   4.0 | -11.8  10.8  325  22 11   6.4   3.5
 16500 -10.8  12.6  340  26 13   7.0   3.8 | -10.9  12.4  325  21 11   6.4   3.5
 16000  -9.7  14.5  340  26 13   6.9   3.8 |  -9.9  14.2  325  21 11   6.4   3.5
 15500  -8.7  16.3  340  26 13   6.7   3.7 |  -9.0  15.8  325  21 11   6.5   3.6
 15000  -7.7  18.1  345  26 13   6.5   3.6 |  -8.0  17.6  330  20 10   6.6   3.6
 14500  -6.7  19.9  345  25 13   6.5   3.6 |  -7.0  19.4  330  20 10   6.7   3.7
 14000  -5.8  21.6  345  24 12   6.6   3.6 |  -5.9  21.4  330  19 10   6.8   3.7
 13500  -4.8  23.4  350  23 12   6.6   3.6 |  -4.9  23.2  330  18  9   6.8   3.7
 13000  -3.7  25.3  350  22 11   7.2   3.9 |  -3.9  25.0  335  17  9   7.0   3.9
 12500  -2.7  27.1  350  21 11   7.2   3.9 |  -2.8  27.0  335  16  8   7.0   3.9
 12000  -1.8  28.8  355  20 10   5.3   2.9 |  -1.9  28.6  335  15  8   5.8   3.2
 11500  -1.0  30.2  350  19 10   5.6   3.1 |  -1.0  30.2  335  14  7   5.9   3.3
 11000  -0.5  31.1  350  18  9   0.8   0.4 |  -0.5  31.1  335  12  6   1.5   0.8
 10500  -0.4  31.3  350  16  8   1.2   0.7 |  -0.3  31.5  330  11  6   1.8   1.0
 10250  -0.4  31.3  355  15  8  -1.2  -0.7 |  -0.3  31.5  330  10  5  -0.1  -0.1
 10000  -0.7  30.7  355  13  7  -3.3  -1.8 |  -0.4  31.3  330   8  4  -1.9  -1.0
  9750  -1.0  30.2  360  12  6  -4.4  -2.4 |  -0.6  30.9  330   7  3  -3.0  -1.6
  9500  -1.4  29.5  005  10  5  -4.0  -2.2 |  -0.9  30.4  330   5  2  -2.6  -1.4
  9250  -1.7  28.9  015   8  4  -1.7  -0.9 |  -1.0  30.2  330   3  2  -0.9  -0.5
  9000  -1.8  28.8  025   7  3  -1.1  -0.6 |  -1.1  30.0  340   2  1  -0.6  -0.3
  8750  -1.9  28.6  045   6  3  -0.4  -0.2 |  -1.1  30.0  000   0  0   1.9   1.0
  8500  -1.8  28.8  065   5  3   3.3   1.8 |  -0.9  30.4  120   2  1   4.3   2.3
  8250  -1.4  29.5  075   6  3   5.6   3.1 |  -0.6  30.9  115   2  1   4.1   2.2
  8000  -1.0  30.2  080   6  3   5.1   2.8 |  -0.3  31.5  110   2  1   4.1   2.3
  7750  -0.7  30.7  085   6  3   5.3   2.9 |  -0.0  32.0  110   3  1   4.3   2.4
  7500  -0.3  31.5  090   6  3   4.0   2.2 |   0.3  32.5  115   3  1   3.1   1.7
  7250  -0.0  32.0  095   5  3   2.9   1.6 |   0.4  32.7  125   3  1   2.0   1.1
  7000   0.2  32.4  105   5  2   3.4   1.9 |   0.6  33.1  135   3  1   2.2   1.2
  6750   0.4  32.7  120   4  2   1.6   0.9 |   0.8  33.4  140   3  2   3.3   1.8
  6500   0.5  32.9  130   5  3  -0.2  -0.1 |   1.1  34.0  135   3  2   4.5   2.4
  6250   0.5  32.9  135   5  3   1.2   0.6 |   1.4  34.5  135   3  1   3.3   1.8
  6000   0.5  32.9  140   6  3  -2.2  -1.2 |   1.7  35.1  135   3  1   6.2   3.4
  5750  -0.0  32.0  135   6  3 -13.8  -7.6 |   2.5  36.5  135   3  1  13.3   7.3
  5500  -1.5  29.3  125   5  3 -23.7 -13.0 |   3.6  38.5  130   3  1  16.6   9.1
  5250     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
  5000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M

           01/14/2018 at 1400 MST          |       01/14/2018 at 1700 MST
                                           |
K index... -13.7  LI... +8.0               | K index... -9.6  LI... +7.6
CAPE... 0.0  CIN... 0.0                    | CAPE... 0.0  CIN... 0.0
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 50000 -64.5 -84.1  325  47 24  -0.8  -0.5 | -64.8 -84.6  325  49 25  -0.1  -0.1
 45000 -65.8 -86.4  330  57 29  -0.8  -0.5 | -64.9 -84.8  325  55 28  -0.4  -0.2
 40000 -67.0 -88.6  335  29 15  -0.9  -0.5 | -66.2 -87.2  320  35 18  -0.9  -0.5
 38000 -64.0 -83.2  335  27 14   8.9   4.9 | -63.5 -82.3  320  32 16   8.3   4.6
 36000 -58.0 -72.4  330  31 16   8.9   4.9 | -58.5 -73.3  320  32 16   8.3   4.6
 34000 -52.9 -63.2  330  33 17   7.9   4.4 | -52.9 -63.2  320  32 17   8.2   4.5
 32000 -48.1 -54.6  330  35 18   7.9   4.4 | -48.0 -54.4  320  34 17   8.2   4.5
 30000 -43.1 -45.6  330  36 18   9.1   5.0 | -43.0 -45.4  315  35 18   8.7   4.8
 29000 -40.4 -40.7  325  35 18   9.1   5.0 | -40.4 -40.7  315  35 18   8.7   4.8
 28000 -37.6 -35.7  325  35 18   9.1   5.0 | -37.8 -36.0  315  36 18   8.7   4.8
 27000 -35.0 -31.0  325  35 18   8.5   4.6 | -35.2 -31.4  315  36 18   8.3   4.5
 26000 -32.4 -26.3  320  35 18   8.5   4.7 | -32.7 -26.9  315  36 18   8.3   4.6
 25000 -29.9 -21.8  320  34 18   8.5   4.7 | -30.2 -22.4  315  35 18   8.3   4.6
 24000 -27.4 -17.3  320  34 17   8.0   4.4 | -27.7 -17.9  315  35 18   8.2   4.5
 23000 -25.0 -13.0  325  33 17   8.1   4.4 | -25.3 -13.5  315  34 18   8.2   4.5
 22000 -22.5  -8.5  325  32 16   8.1   4.4 | -22.9  -9.2  315  33 17   8.2   4.5
 21000 -20.2  -4.4  325  31 16   7.6   4.2 | -20.5  -4.9  315  32 17   7.5   4.1
 20000 -17.3   0.9  320  29 15   7.6   4.2 | -17.6   0.3  315  31 16   7.6   4.2
 19500 -16.2   2.8  320  29 15   7.6   4.2 | -16.5   2.3  315  30 16   7.6   4.1
 19000 -15.0   5.0  315  28 14   7.0   3.9 | -15.4   4.3  310  30 15   7.1   3.9
 18500 -14.1   6.6  315  27 14   6.6   3.6 | -14.4   6.1  310  29 15   6.6   3.6
 18000 -13.1   8.4  315  27 14   6.6   3.6 | -13.4   7.9  310  29 15   6.6   3.6
 17500 -12.2  10.0  310  26 13   5.6   3.1 | -12.5   9.5  310  29 15   6.0   3.3
 17000 -11.3  11.7  310  25 13   5.7   3.1 | -11.6  11.1  305  28 14   6.1   3.3
 16500 -10.5  13.1  305  24 12   5.4   3.0 | -10.7  12.7  305  27 14   5.8   3.2
 16000  -9.7  14.5  305  22 12   5.4   2.9 |  -9.8  14.4  305  26 13   5.7   3.2
 15500  -8.9  16.0  305  21 11   5.8   3.2 |  -9.0  15.8  305  24 13   5.9   3.2
 15000  -7.9  17.8  305  20 10   6.5   3.6 |  -8.0  17.6  305  23 12   6.3   3.5
 14500  -6.9  19.6  305  19 10   6.6   3.6 |  -7.1  19.2  300  22 12   6.4   3.5
 14000  -5.9  21.4  300  18  9   6.9   3.8 |  -6.0  21.2  300  21 11   7.6   4.2
 13500  -4.9  23.2  300  18  9   6.9   3.8 |  -4.9  23.2  300  20 10   7.6   4.2
 13000  -3.9  25.0  300  16  8   6.6   3.6 |  -3.9  25.0  300  19 10   6.3   3.5
 12500  -2.9  26.8  295  15  8   6.7   3.7 |  -2.9  26.8  295  18  9   6.5   3.6
 12000  -2.0  28.4  295  14  7   5.8   3.2 |  -2.0  28.4  295  16  8   5.8   3.2
 11500  -1.1  30.0  295  13  7   6.1   3.4 |  -1.2  29.8  290  15  8   6.0   3.3
 11000  -0.4  31.3  290  12  6   3.4   1.9 |  -0.4  31.3  290  14  7   4.2   2.3
 10500   0.1  32.2  290  11  5   3.8   2.1 |   0.2  32.4  290  12  6   4.7   2.6
 10250   0.3  32.5  290  10  5   2.2   1.2 |   0.5  32.9  290  11  6   2.8   1.5
 10000   0.4  32.7  285   9  5   1.1   0.6 |   0.6  33.1  290  11  6   2.0   1.1
  9750   0.5  32.9  285   8  4   1.9   1.1 |   0.9  33.6  285  10  5   3.7   2.0
  9500   0.6  33.1  280   7  4   1.7   1.0 |   1.1  34.0  285   9  5   3.4   1.9
  9250   0.7  33.3  280   6  3   1.0   0.6 |   1.3  34.3  285   8  4   2.4   1.3
  9000   0.7  33.3  275   5  3   0.8   0.4 |   1.4  34.5  285   7  3   1.7   0.9
  8750   0.8  33.4  265   4  2   1.8   1.0 |   1.6  34.9  280   6  3   1.7   1.0
  8500   0.9  33.6  250   2  1   2.4   1.3 |   1.7  35.1  275   4  2   2.2   1.2
  8250   1.1  34.0  230   2  1   2.4   1.3 |   1.9  35.4  265   3  2   3.4   1.8
  8000   1.3  34.3  210   1  1   2.3   1.3 |   2.1  35.8  255   2  1   3.5   1.9
  7750   1.4  34.5  175   1  1   3.3   1.8 |   2.4  36.3  235   1  1   4.0   2.2
  7500   1.7  35.1  155   1  1   4.1   2.2 |   2.7  36.9  205   1  1   3.8   2.1
  7250   2.0  35.6  145   1  1   3.8   2.1 |   2.9  37.2  170   1  0   3.2   1.8
  7000   2.2  36.0  125   1  1   3.4   1.9 |   3.1  37.6  130   1  1   3.0   1.7
  6750   2.5  36.5  115   1  1   5.3   2.9 |   3.3  37.9  110   2  1   4.4   2.4
  6500   3.0  37.4  095   1  1   8.6   4.7 |   3.7  38.7  100   2  1   6.4   3.5
  6250   3.7  38.7  090   1  1   9.2   5.1 |   4.2  39.6  085   2  1   6.1   3.3
  6000   4.4  39.9  085   1  1   8.8   4.8 |   4.6  40.3  075   2  1   7.2   4.0
  5750   5.1  41.2  085   1  1  12.2   6.7 |   5.2  41.4  070   2  1   6.1   3.4
  5500   6.3  43.3  085   1  0  18.7  10.3 |   5.4  41.7  065   2  1   1.0   0.5
  5250     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
  5000     M     M    M   M  M     M     M |     M     M    M   M  M     M     M
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC).  It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken at Walker Field in Grand
Junction, Colorado at

                   North Latitude:  39 deg 07 min 00.001 sec
                   West Longitude: 108 deg 31 min 59.998 sec
                   Elevation: 4839 feet (1475 meters)

and may not be representative of other areas along the Western Slope of
Colorado.  Note that some elevations in numerical weather prediction models
differ from actual station elevations, which can lead to data which appear
to be below ground.  Erroneous data such as these should not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page.  To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions.

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel`s initial temperature is the forecast maximum
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.

Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
     movements.

042613



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