Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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476
FXUS61 KALY 222325
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
625 PM EST Mon Jan 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal boundary will lift slowly north of the region
as a warm front tonight with light mixed precipitation changing
to rain, especially north of the Mohawk Valley and Capital
Region. A low pressure system and its cold front will bring
periods of rain to eastern New York and western New England on
Tuesday. As the cold front moves through Tuesday night, colder
more seasonable air will return with brisk conditions for mid
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
Winter Weather Advisories in effect for areas mainly from the
Mohawk River north, and across southern VT/Northern Berkshire
County MA tonight.

As of 625 PM EST, area of light to moderate precipitation
expanding east across eastern New York and western New England
at this hour. Temperatures in many areas north of the Capital
District are hovering close to freezing, with dewpoints nudging
slightly below freezing. In fact, upstream dewpoints across
portions of the upper Hudson Valley, as well as portions of the
CT River Valley in VT, have dropped into the lower/mid 20s, with
north/northeast winds persisting.

As a strong upper level jet max continues translating east
across southern Quebec this evening, expect the shallow layer of
relatively dry/cooler air to continue seeping south and west, as
the precipitation continues to move through. Forecast soundings
suggest low level ageostrophic flow should continue to
strengthen overnight, allowing the shallow layer of drier/cooler
air to lock in place. So, expect a period of freezing rain in
many areas from the Mohawk Valley north this evening. Will have
to watch the southern extent of subfreezing dewpoints, in case
it continues settling south and prompting a slight expansion of
the current advisory south and west.

The main surge of isentropic lift is expected to lift north and
east of the region toward midnight, with precipitation most
likely tapering off from southwest to northeast.

A general break in the precipitation is then expected, until
steadier precipitation associated with the main warm conveyor
belt and cold/occluded front develops closer to daybreak. At
that time, subfreezing temps should be more limited to the
southern Adirondacks, southern VT, especially adjacent to the CT
River, and Berkshire CO, especially eastern portions in higher
elevations. So, the Winter Weather Advisory for these areas will
remain until at least 7 AM, while other portions of the Advisory
area are curtailed at 3 AM, assuming sufficient low level
warming occurs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
     Flood Watch in effect from 7 AM EST Tuesday until 7 AM EST
Wednesday, mainly for Ice Jams...

The main bout of rainfall is expected through around 1 PM
Tuesday. Areas of moderate to locally heavy rain will be
possible, especially from the Mohawk River Valley and points S
and E. In fact, there could be some elevated convective elements
enhancing rainfall rates for a brief time during the morning
hours, especially across the mid Hudson Valley into NW CT. Will
have to watch in case any training of heavier rain elements
develop, which would increase rainfall amounts even more.

Although river flooding is not anticipated just from the rain
and snowmelt, the rising river/stream levels from runoff could
be enough to dislodge ice jams which have been frozen in place
over the past 10 days. Therefore, a Flood Watch has been issued,
mainly to heighten awareness that ice jams frozen in place could
dislodge and/or cause new flooding in some areas.

Although there will be a strong low level jet translating across
the region, a stable boundary layer should preclude most of this
from mixing to the surface. However, some higher terrain of
western New England, especially across the southern Greens,
Berkshires and Taconics, where some wind gusts up to 45 mph
could occur Tuesday morning.

Although the steadiest rain should taper off from W to E around
or shortly after noontime, as the main upper level energy
crosses the region later in the afternoon, additional showers
should occur. In fact, can not rule out some embedded
thunderstorms, perhaps with graupel/gusty winds, later in the
afternoon (especially southern areas).

Temperatures will likely spike into the 40s/50s in valley areas
from Albany south and east late morning through early afternoon,
before falling later in the day. For higher elevations, mainly
40s are expected for highs, before falling back through the 30s
late in the day. Rain showers could change to snow across higher
terrain later in the day, with an inch or two possible.

For Tuesday night-Wednesday, strong winds and Lake
Effect/Enhanced snow will be the main story. Wind gusts of 35-45
mph appear likely, esp across higher elevations, and within
close proximity to the Mohawk Valley/Capital Region and
Berkshires late Tuesday night through at least Wednesday
morning. If the chances for even higher gusts increase, then
wind advisories may be needed later in time. Also, Lake
Effect/Enhanced snowfall could produce localized amts of 2-4
inches across portions of Northern Herkimer/Hamilton Cos. Snow
showers could extend farther S and E as well, with a couple of
inches possible across higher terrain in southern VT. It will
turn colder, with Tuesday night lows mainly in the teens and
20s, and Wednesday highs only a few degrees above morning lows.

Wednesday night, colder with gradually diminishing winds. Lows
in the single digits/teens.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The long term period starts out dry and ends fairly active Saturday
night and Sunday.

A large ridge of high pressure will be across the region Thursday
and Friday before moving off the eastern seaboard on Saturday. A
warm front will be lifting through the region on Saturday but there
is limited moisture with the frontal boundary, so will keep Saturday
dry for now. By Sunday a cold front approaches from the west moving
into the eastern Great Lakes Sunday morning and then moving into the
forecast area during the afternoon. Expect increasing chances for
precipitation Saturday night and Sunday with precipitation starting
out as a mixture of snow and rain with mostly rain by Sunday
afternoon.

Highs on Thursday will be in the teens and 20s in most areas with
highs on Friday in the mid 20s to lower 30s. Highs on Saturday and
Sunday will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Lows Thursday night will
be in the negative single digits to mid teens with lows Friday night
will be in the teens and lower 20s. Lows Saturday night will be in
the upper 20s to mid 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
One period of rain and freezing rain this evening with
intervals of IFR/MVFR conditions. Coverage of precipitation will
decrease late this evening through the early morning hours with
breaks in the precipitation. Keeping VCSH along with fog and
low ceilings during the lull in precipitation through the early
morning hours in case of a few lingering showers or drizzle.
Wind shear is expected between midnight and midday Tuesday as
surface winds will be light but winds at 2000 feet will be south
at 30 kts or greater.

More rain develops Tuesday morning with ceilings and
visibilities once again wavering between IFR/MVFR through
Tuesday morning. Light north to east winds at less than 10 kts
this afternoon will become variable at 5 kts or less tonight
and south at less than 10 kts Tuesday morning.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 35.0
Chance of SHRA...SHSN.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To
35.0 NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Ongoing flooding due to ice jams will continue to be addressed
with areal flood warnings in Warren County, as some lingering
issues continue due to existing ice jams which froze in place.

Temperatures will continue to run above normal into Tuesday.
The mildest night and day will be on Tuesday with highs mainly
in the 40s to lower 50s with a much colder and more seasonable
airmass returning Tuesday night and through the remainder of the
week.

A low pressure system and its cold front will bring a moderate
to locally heavy rainfall to the area. The rain is expected to
be light today and into early tonight with the bulk of the rain
occurring Tuesday morning into early afternoon. QPF amounts are
forecast at this time to range from three quarters of an inch to
an inch an a quarter. The highest amounts are expected north
and east of Albany and the Capital Region, extending into the
mid Hudson Valley and NW CT.

The rain is expected to cause rises on rivers and streams, which
may move and dislodge ice and may cause flooding near ice jams.
Mostly within bank rises are expected based on the latest NERFC
forecasts and the MMEFS. However, the rising river/stream
levels from runoff could be enough to dislodge ice jams which
have been frozen in place over the past 10 days. Therefore, a
Flood Watch has been issued, mainly to heighten awareness that
ice jams frozen in place could dislodge and/or cause new
flooding in some areas.

Our latest Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook (ESFALY) was
issued this past Friday.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning for
     CTZ001-013.
NY...Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning for
     NYZ038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 3 AM EST Tuesday for NYZ038>040-
     048>050.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for NYZ032-033-
     041>043-082>084.
MA...Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning for
     MAZ001-025.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for MAZ001.
VT...Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning for
     VTZ013>015.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/Wasula
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...11/NAS
HYDROLOGY...KL/Wasula



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