Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 080303
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1103 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE MUGGY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH. THERE MAY STILL BE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF ALBANY...AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION. DRY AND LESS HUMID
WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE MUGGY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
BOUNDARY SHOULD BE JUST ENTERING THE WESTERN REACHES OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING AHEAD OF IT...MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION BASED ON
RADAR AND TRENDS AND MESOSCALE MODELS.

PWATS WILL REMAIN HIGH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SO STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. PWATS FROM 00Z SOUNDINGS:
ALY 1.70 INCHES...BUF 1.90 INCHES...OKX 1.88 INCHES AND PBZ 1.76
INCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE FRONT WILL STILL BE CROSSING THE REGION WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
EARLY AFTN. THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT PWATS WILL REMAIN HIGH...SO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL CONTINUE. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL BE 65 TO 75 IN THE
ADIRONDACKS WHERE COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE EARLY IN THE
DAY...AND MID 70S TO MID 80S ELSEWHERE.

MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY AND MAINLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE EXTREME SOUTHERN AREAS WHERE THE
FRONT MAY STALL CLOSE TO THAT AREA. HAVE FORECAST 20 TO 30 PERCENT
POPS OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH. LOWS WILL BE 45 TO AROUND 50 OVER THE
ADIRONDACKS. IN THE 50S MOST OTHER AREAS...AND LOWER 60S OVER THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN AREAS.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...AND
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FOR THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HAVE FORECAST CHANCE POPS TO GRADUALLY
INCREASE AND PUSH FURTHER NORTH THURSDAY AFTN AND EVENING...THEN
DECREASE AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
(30 TO 45 PERCENT POPS) WILL BE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. ELSEWHERE
20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS HAVE BEEN FORECAST...WITH NO SHOWERS
FORECAST OVER FAR NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 70S...WITH SOME UPPER 60S OVER HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. LOWS
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL BE BEST DESCRIBED AS THE SUMMER DOLDRUMS...WEAK
SYSTEMS AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WITH NO APPRECIABLE CHANGE IN AIR
MASSES FROM START TO FINISH.  THINGS WILL START OUT DRY...BUT BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL HAVE BUILT
UP TO PRODUCE INCREASING CHANCES OF MAINLY POPCORN-FASHION SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF ANYWHERE FROM THE MID 70S TO MID
80S FRIDAY.  SATURDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER DUE TO THE DRY AND
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.  BUT CLOUDS AND WETNESS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN A SLIGHT COOLING TREND...SO
THAT HIGHS BY TUESDAY RANGE FROM AROUND 70 DEGREES IN THE WESTERN
ADIRONDACKS...TO THE LOWER 80S DOWN THE HUDSON VALLEY.  WITH US
APPROACHING THE TIME OF YEAR WITH THE WARMEST NORMALS AT ALBANY...
THE CITY/S NORMAL HIGHS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE AROUND 82 OR 83
DEGREES...WITH THE NORMAL LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE
DISTURBANCE HAVE WEAKENED AND MOVED OFF TO OUR EAST.

THE MUGGY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
BOUNDARY SHOULD BE JUST ENTERING THE WESTERN REACHES OF THE
FORECAST AREA AROUND 12Z/WEDNESDAY AND WILL BE EXITING THE LOCAL
AREA MID AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF
IT...MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

VFR CONDITIONS AREA EXPECTED TO LOWER TO MVFR AS CONDITIONS WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR THE FORMATION OF SOME FOG WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS...MUGGY AIRMASS AND WET/DAMP GROUND.

CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED WITH STORMS AND LINGERING UNTIL THE
COLD FRONT PASSES. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS THE ATMOSPHERE MIXES
AND BEGINS TO DRY OUT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED BY 00Z/THURSDAY.

HAVE SHOWERS IN TAFS BUT NO THUNDERSTORMS AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT INDIVIDUAL TAF SITES. PWATS WILL REMAIN
HIGH SO STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE SOUTH AT 5-10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST BY AROUND DAYBREAK...AND THEN TO THE
NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON.

ALSO...WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION IN AND
NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THU-FRI NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SAT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SAT NIGHT-SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME.

A DEPARTING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WITH
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. RH VALUES WILL RISE TO BETWEEN 80 AND
100 PERCENT TONIGHT...AND DROP TO 40-60 PERCENT DURING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE 5-15 MPH UNTIL THE COLD FRONT
PASSES ON WEDNESDAY...THEN BECOME NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE
DISTURBANCE HAVE WEAKENED AND MOVED OFF TO OUR EAST. SOME STORMS
PRODUCED VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY NEAR THE FAIRFIELD COUNTY BORDER. DID HAVE A
FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS EFFECT FOR A PERIOD EARLY THIS EVENING. THE
STILL RIVER AT BROOKFIELD CT ROSE JUST OVER 4 FEET THIS EVENING IN
RESPONSE TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL.

PWATS WILL REMAIN HIGH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SO STORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS. PWATS FROM 00Z SOUNDINGS:
ALY 1.70 INCHES...BUF 1.90 INCHES...OKX 1.88 INCHES AND PBZ 1.76
INCHES.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH HIGH PWATS
STILL IN PLACE...THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN AREAS THAT SEE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WIDESPREAD
PROBLEMS AREN/T ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
FOR MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT
MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/GJM
NEAR TERM...IAA/GJM
SHORT TERM...GJM
LONG TERM...ELH
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...FRUGIS/GJM
HYDROLOGY...IAA/FRUGIS/GJM



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