Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 241946
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
346 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN INCREASINGLY WARMER AND HUMID AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. ALONG WITH THE CHANGE IN AIRMASS...THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TOO WILL BE ON THE INCREASE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS SEEN IN THE H2O VAPOR IMAGERY...THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND HAS MOVED WELL EAST AS DEEP TROUGH WAS ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND PLAINS. THIS IS RESULTING IN A BROAD RIDGE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONUS WITH A ZONAL FLOW ACROSS OUR
REGION.

AMPLE CONVECTION AND CLOUDS WITH THE UPSTREAM TROUGH WAS BRINGING
HIGH AND SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGIONS AND
STREAMING INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS /COULD MAKE FOR SUN DOGS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING/ THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THEREAFTER...WE WILL AWAIT FOR
ELEVATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM AS NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET
EVOLVES. DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL ADVECT INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AS SPEED CONVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN A HEALTHY AREA OF
RAIN/STORMS WITH THICKNESS SCHEME SUGGESTING THE TRACK OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF THE REGION /MAINLY NORTH OF
I90/ OVERNIGHT. NO SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED AS ANY RAINFALL WILL BE
WELCOME. SO THE GENERAL THEME FOR TONIGHT WILL BE INCREASING
CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INCREASING OVERNIGHT MAINLY
NORTH OF I90. TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT WILL GENERALLY FALL INTO THE
50 DEGREE RANGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MEMORIAL DAY...BROAD RIDGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ALONG WITH
SLOWLY MIGRATING UPSTREAM TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A MUCH WARMER AND
HUMID AIR MASS TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION AS PWATS CLIMB IN EXCESS
OF 1.50 INCHES. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
REGION...SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS AND SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF I90. OTHERWISE...CONSIDERABLE CLOUD
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED. H850 TEMPS MODERATE INTO THE MID-TEENS RANGE
ALONG WITH A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW TOO ASSIST WITH VALLEY
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S WITH M-U 70S ELSEWHERE.

MON NIGHT...THE MAIN THRUST OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE WELL
NORTH OF THE REGION WITH A TRAILING MID LEVEL FRONT SETTLING SOUTH
OF I90 OVERNIGHT. NCEP MODEL SUITE SUGGESTS A COUPLE OF WAVES WILL
TRANSVERSE THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS TO WARRANT A CONTINUED CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS/STORMS. IT SHOULD REMAIN RATHER MILD AND HUMID WITH
MAINLY 60S EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION.

TUE-TUE NIGHT...ANOTHER PV ANOMALY IS FORECAST FROM THE GLOBAL
MODELS TO COME OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND TRACK INTO THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION. DOWNSTREAM RESPONSE WILL BE THE MID
LEVEL FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. SO THE CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS TO IMPACT THE REGION. CLOUD COVERAGE
WILL HAVE AN IMPACT TO OVERALL INSTABILITY AS CURRENT SBCAPES ARE
EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO 500-1000 J/KG WITH PWATS OF 1.25-1.75 INCHES.
THE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT STEEP. 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR REMAIN IN
THE 20-30 KT RANGE. SO SOME ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION IS
POSSIBLE WHICH COULD ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S IN THE VALLEY AREAS...WITH
U70S TO L80S OVER THE HILLS AND MTNS. THE CONVECTION SHOULD
DIMINISH IN THE EVENING WITH A STICKY/MUGGY NIGHT SETTING UP WITH
LOWS IN 60S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE HIGHER AS DEWPOINTS CLIMB
THROUGH THE 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SEASON/S FIRST REAL BERMUDA HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE ESTABLISHED
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD DURING MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE
NET RESULT WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH MODERATE TO
HIGH LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AND THREAT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ON WEDNESDAY...A MID LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN JAMES BAY AND THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES...AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO
MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO NY STATE. DISTURBANCES ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL
INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS OUR REGION BY LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

AT THIS POINT...MOST LONG TERM GUIDANCE INDICATED THIS MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SLIDES ON BY LATE THURSDAY...REPLACED BY BRIEF RIDGING
ON FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER DISTURBANCE RIDING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THESE CHANCES CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
BY SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER JAMES BAY MIGHT PUSH THE
FRONT SOUTH OF OUR REGION...WHICH WOULD ALLOW SLIGHTLY COOLER DRIER
TO FILTER IN. THIS FAR OUT...THAT IS NOT A CERTAINITY...SO WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH LOW TO SLIGHT CHANCES ON SUNDAY.

THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTAIN HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH PROJECTED CAPES TO
OVER 2500 J/KG...SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BECOME QUITE STRONG ON
THAT DAY. ALSO PWAT VALUES LOOK TO REACH OVER 1.5 INCHES...WELL
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR.

HOPEFULLY THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY CAN BRING SOME RELIEF TO OUR
INCREASINGLY DRY CONDITIONS.

DAYTIME HIGHS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE 80S WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH SOME OF THE HOTTER SPOTS HAVING A SHOT AT 90
ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH...IF WE GET ENOUGH OF
SUNSHINE EACH OF THESE DAYS.

BY SUNDAY..HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO COOL TO 65-70 ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND GREENS...70S ELSEWHERE.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL AVERAGE IN THE 60S...COOLING A LITTLE BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
MORNING FOR ALL TAF SITES.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION FROM CENTRAL/WESTERN NY
THIS AFTN. WHILE SKY COVER WILL INITIALLY ONLY BE FEW-SCT...MOST
SITES LOOK TO HAVE BKN CIGS AT 25 KFT THANKS TO A THIN LAYER OF
CIRRUS CLOUDS BY THIS EVENING. W-SW WINDS THIS AFTN WILL BE AROUND
10-15 KTS...BUT LOOK TO DECREASE TO 5 KTS OR LESS BY LATE THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING.

DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...CIGS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AND
LOWER...BUT NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED FOR THE TAF SITES...AS THE BEST
FORCING REMAINS NORTH AND WEST OF THE REGION TOWARDS THE GREAT
LAKES. SEVERAL LAYERS OF BKN CLOUDS WILL BE IN PLACE BY
DAYBREAK...WITH THE LOWEST LAYER AT 8-12 KFT. THESE CLOUDS...ALONG
WITH DRY LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WILL HELP PREVENT ANY
RADIATIONAL FOG FROM FORMING TONIGHT.

A SFC WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY
/MEMORIAL DAY/.  MOST OF THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY
LOOKS TO MISS THE REGION TO THE NORTH/WEST...BUT CANNOT TOTALLY RULE
OUT A SHOWER AT SOME POINT DURING THE DAY...ESP AFTER 18Z.  CIGS
WILL GENERALLY BE BKN AT VFR LEVELS THROUGH THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 5-10 KTS THROUGH THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUE-FRI: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PER REQUEST OF THE NEW ENGLAND FIRE LIAISON CONTACT POINTS...A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED TO REFLECT "ELEVATED" RISK
OF ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR. THIS STATEMENT IS SET TO EXPIRE BY THIS
EVENING.

EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND HAVE GREENED UP OR LEAFED
OUT...AND THE KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX PLAYS AN IMPORTANT ROLE
IN DETERMINING WHETHER OR NOT WE HAVE A "CRITICAL" FIRE DAY. THE
CURRENT VALUES ARE AROUND OR JUST BELOW 300...SO NO HEADLINES OR
STATEMENTS WERE REQUESTED IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK AT THIS TIME.

THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO 75 TO 100 PERCENT BY MONDAY
MORNING. THE RH VALUES WILL BE HIGHER MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON IN
THE 35 TO 55 PERCENT RANGE.

THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS TO CALM
TONIGHT...AND THEN INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15
MPH ON MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH
RIVER LEVELS HOLDING OR FALLING THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR HAS NOW INCLUDED MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND IN THE D1 CATEGORY...WHICH IS CONSIDERED
MODERATE DROUGHT.

THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITHIN THE MORE HUMID AIR MASS. SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THE MID WEEK WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM/WASULA
LONG TERM...HWJIV
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA

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