Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KALY 220925
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
425 AM EST MON DEC 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...
BRINGING A CHANCE FOR LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY A STORM WILL ORGANIZE IN THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND INTENSIFY RAPIDLY AS IT MOVES NORTH TO THE OTTAWA
VALLEY. IT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG
WINDS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW CLOUDS SEEN ERODING VERY SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST AS MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS SPREAD NORTH AND EAST AHEAD OF SYSTEMS APPROACHING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND SE U.S. SO...ANY AREAS THAT SEE THE LOW
CLOUDS BREAK UP...SHOULD SEE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THICKENING
THROUGH THE DAY. WITH THE PROSPECTS FOR LITTLE TO NO SUN AGAIN
TODAY...AND LIGHT WINDS...HIGHS IN THE 30S. SOME SPOTTY LIGHT
MIXED PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE INTO THE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND NW CT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPSTREAM SYSTEM
APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WARM ADVECTION AND BOUNDARY LAYER SOUTHERLY FLOW VERY GRADUALLY
INCREASES AS THE SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AFFECTS OUR
REGION TONIGHT. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS...AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT LOOK TO BE IN EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND...WHERE CHANCES FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE EVENING
BECOME LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING.

PRECIPITATION TYPES LOOK TRICKY...AND DEPEND ON HOW MUCH THE
WARMING BOUNDARY LAYER CAN INFLUENCE THE SURFACE TEMPERATURES...
WHICH COULD RISE SLOWLY BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND SUNRISE IN SOME
AREAS. SO...ANY TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...COULD WET BULB JUST BELOW FREEZING THROUGH THE
EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE PATCHY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...THEN...AGAIN SOME AREAS COULD SEE TEMPERATURES
RISE A LITTLE BACK TO OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING TOWARD DAYBREAK. THE
HUDSON VALLEY FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT THROUGH THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY AND INTO PARTS OF NW CT HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO BE AT OR
JUST ABOVE FREEZING WHEN THE STEADIER PRECIPITATION ARRIVES AROUND
AND AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE STRONG LOW LEVEL RIDGING IN SE CANADA
SHOULD KEEP DRAINING SOME ANCHORING OF THE COLDER AIR IN AT LEAST
AREAS NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN GREEN
MOUNTAINS.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION TYPES...PATCHY LIGHT SNOW AND RAIN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...TRANSITIONING TO A MIX OF SNOW AND
SLEET...WITH A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN...THEN TOWARD DAYBREAK...
SOME AREAS WILL SEE A MIX OF SLEET AND A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR
FREEZING RAIN. WITH THE UNCERTAINTIES AS TO WHAT AREAS WILL SEE
LIKELY FREEZING RAIN...NO ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. SINCE THE ONSET
OF ANY POTENTIAL FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE WELL AFTER DARK...AND
COULD AFFECT THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE...A MORE FOCUSED ADVISORY
COULD BE ISSUED LATER TODAY...ONCE AREAS CAN BE DETERMINED THAT
WILL HAVE FREEZING RAIN LIKELY OR BETTER...AS OPPOSED TO THE
CURRENT CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN.

THE FREEZING RAIN THREAT WILL BE ADDRESSED IN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK UNTIL ANY HEADLINES ARE ISSUED. ALL INTERESTS
SHOULD BE AWARE..THOUGH THAT SOME PORTION OF EASTERN NY...SOUTHERN
VT AND NW CT WILL SEE A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW SHOULD BE AN INCH OR
LESS AND ANY ICE ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD MAINLY BE A TRACE...BUT
GENERALLY UNDER A TENTH OF AN INCH.

STRONGER WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TUESDAY TO CHANGE ANY MIX TO
JUST A COLD RAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S. TEMPERATURES FALL A FEW
DEGREES TUESDAY EVENING BUT STAY ABOVE FREEZING ALONG WITH MORE
PERIODS OF RAIN. ON WEDNESDAY...EVEN A LITTLE WARMER WITH STILL
MORE PERIODS OF RAIN AND HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S. THERE
ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE INCREASINGLY STRONG WINDS AT THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MAY NOT MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE EXCEPT IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. THE TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT IS
IN QUESTION...BUT THE TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO BE WELL ABOVE
FREEZING FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PERIOD STARTS OUT ON CHRISTMAS MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT
ATTACHED TO A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RACING EASTWARD ACROSS
OUR REGION. THERE IS GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS THAT THE LOW WILL TRACK
WELL TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...DEEPENING INTO A NEAR 970 MB CYCLONE BY
LATE IN THE DAY AS IT TRACKS INTO QUEBEC. SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONT AS IT CLEARS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING THE MORNING...ALTHOUGH
ADDITIONAL RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MAINLY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ADIRONDACKS THE REST OF CHRISTMAS
DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL SPIKE DURING THE LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON...THEN FALL THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. EARLY HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EASTWARD.
TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE 30S AND 40S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE MAIN CONCERN ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. WITH THE DEEPENING LOW AND COLD ADVECTION
SETTING UP...RELATIVELY DEEP MIXING SHOULD BE ABLE TO TAP INTO THE
50-60 KTS CORE OF WINDS ALOFT. THERE WILL BE SOME SLIGHT
MODIFICATION DUE TO FRICTION...BUT A WINDY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH THE
POSSIBILITY FOR ADVISORY OR EVEN WARNING LEVEL WIND GUSTS. THIS FAR
OUT THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO THE STRENGTH OF
WINDS ALOFT AND MIXING HEIGHTS...BUT THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
CONTINUE MENTION IN THE HWO.

WHILE IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS MIXING DECREASES AND THE FLOW REGIME
BECOMES INCREASINGLY ANTICYCLONIC. OTHER THAN A FEW LEFTOVER SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
WITH TEMPS COOLING TO AT OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE REGION. DRY
WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...AS A RIDGE BUILDS
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...WITH
MILDER AIR QUICKLY RETURNING.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CANADA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE...JUST A FEW
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

THEN MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY BUILDS FOR SUNDAY...AS THERE ARE VASTLY
DIFFERING MODEL SOLUTIONS YIELDING THE POTENTIAL FOR TRANQUIL
WEATHER /GFS/ OR A POSSIBLE FAST-MOVING SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM
BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND/OR SNOW /ECMWF/ TO THE REGION. DUE TO
LOW CONFIDENCE...WILL MENTION CHANCE POPS AT THIS TIME AND CONTINUE
TO MONITOR MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING ANCHORED ACROSS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
WILL KEEP A PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE UPCOMING 24 PERIOD. A STRONG INVERSION IN PLACE
WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD CIGS MAINLY IN MVFR RANGE TO CONTINUE AS
WELL. A WEAK DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN SCATTERED -SHSN FOR KPSF/KPOU OVERNIGHT. SOME IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KPSF WHERE A TEMPO HAS BEEN
MENTIONED. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN MVFR WITH THE -SHSN AT KPOU.
KGFL/KALB WILL LIKELY HAVE DRY CONDITIONS AND CIGS IN THE MVFR OR
VFR RANGE OVERNIGHT.

WITH THE INVERSION REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY...OVC CIGS
WILL PERSIST IN THE MVFR/VFR RANGES. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD MONDAY
NIGHT...WHICH WILL RESULT IN GRADUALLY INCREASING CHANCES FOR
EITHER -RA/SN/PL/FZRA DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION. BEST CHANCES
WILL BE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...FROM THE NORTHEAST-EAST UP TO 5 KTS
THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY RA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE RA.
CHRISTMAS DAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT.WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 37.0
CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT.BREEZY  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE LIKELY ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT
SNOWMELT WHICH RAISES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR FLOODING AND
SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES OF LARGER STEM RIVERS. MMEFS
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE BEST CHANCES FOR MINOR FLOODING WOULD BE
FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. IT IS TOO
EARLY TO ISSUE ANY FLOOD WATCHES...HOWEVER WILL MENTION IN THE HWO
AT THIS TIME.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NAS
NEAR TERM...NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...JPV
HYDROLOGY...NAS






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.