Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 041044
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
644 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DELIGHTFUL HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS IN STORE ACROSS THE REGION AS HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES DOMINANT. MAINLY AFTERNOON PARTIAL CLOUDINESS AND
OVERNIGHT PATCHY FOG WILL BE INTERMIXED WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH LABOR DAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 630 AM EDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS STRATUS DECK HAS
FINALLY INCREASED INTO THE SOUTHERN GREENS...EASTERN BERKS AND
MIGRATING INTO NW CT. HOWEVER...LATEST MESOSCALE RUNS NOW SUGGEST
THIS DECK MAY NOT LINGER TOO LONG AS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST SO WE
WILL ADJUST ACCORDINGLY FOR MOST OUR SOUTHERN ZONES /EXCEPTION
WOULD BE ALONG THE I84 CORRIDOR AND INTO EASTERN ULSTER COUNTY/.
IN ADDITION...LATEST LAV/LAMP AND 06Z GFS MOS HAVE COME IN A
LITTLE HIGHER WITH RESPECT TO AFTERNOON HIGHS. SO WE HAVE ALSO
ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY HIGHER WITH THE HIGH TEMPS THIS AFTERNOON.

PREV DISC...
H2O VAPOR LOOP THIS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING REVEALS A
RATHER HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW ACROSS NOAM AS TROUGH AS SET UP ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH BRITISH COLUMBIA...MONSOONAL FLOW
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WITH A
GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/3RD OF THE CONUS. THE
ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE A CUT OFF LOW IN THE VICINITY OF
LOWER MICHIGAN WHICH WILL NOT IMPACT OUR REGION.

A CLOSER LOOK REVEALS A WEAKENING FRONTAL ZONE NOW SOUTH OF I84
YET LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF THE FROPA REMAINS ALONG AND
SOUTH OF I90. ENHANCED SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM BOTH THE IR CHANNEL
AND THE 11U-3.9U IMAGERY SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUD COVERAGE
INTO THE SOUTHERN GREENS...NORTHERN BERKS AND NORTHERN-CENTRAL
TACONICS. THIS IS ALSO AIDED BY SYNOPTIC UPSLOPE FLOW AROUND THE
BUILDING SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH.

MESOSCALE MODEL TRENDS ALONG WITH THE CANADIAN SKY FORECAST MODEL
SUGGEST THESE CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE REGION /SOUTH OF I90/ THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR THESE AREAS WE WILL
PLACE A MOCLOUDY FORECAST AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS THAN THE
REST OF THE REGION. NORTH OF THESE AREAS...A PTSUNNY TO MOSUNNY
FORECAST IS EXPECTED WITH DRIER LOWER LEVELS. PER MIXING LAYER
HEIGHTS...EXPECT HIGHS TO CLIMB GENERALLY BETWEEN 75-80F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FOR THE UNOFFICIAL END OF SUMMER HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE PATTERN
WILL RESEMBLE THAT OF JULY AS RIDGE BUILDS BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. H500 HEIGHTS ARE STILL PROGGED TO BE 1-2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WITH 590DM+ HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION
WHICH FLATTENS A BIT INTO LABOR DAY. NEVERTHELESS...COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND FORECAST MIXING LAYER
HEIGHTS AOA H850 WHERE NCEP MODEL SUITE ALONG WITH INTERNATIONAL
GUIDANCE SHOW A 1-2 DEGREE INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM SHOULD EQUATE TO AVERAGE VALUES OF 80-85F FOR VALLEY
LOCATIONS AND 75-80F FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE MAINLY INTO THE 50S TO AROUND 60F WITH PATCHY FOG.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. WITH BOTH 850 HPA TEMPS AND 500 HPA
HEIGHTS 1 TO 2 STD ABOVE NORMAL...SFC TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MONDAY...TUESDAY...AND WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS...WITH A FEW SPOTS IN
THE HUDSON VALLEY RIGHT AROUND 90. HIGH TERRAIN AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE MILD...WITH
MOST PLACES IN THE 60S. IT WILL FEEL STICKY AT TIMES...ESP TOWARDS
MIDWEEK..WHEN DEWPOINT READINGS WILL REACH INTO THE MID 60S F.

EVENTUALLY...A SFC COLD FRONT WILL WORK TOWARDS THE REGION...AND
UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL START TO FALL...AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE. ALTHOUGH WESTERN AREAS MAY SEE A SHOWER/TSTM
AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AFTN/NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE BROAD W-SW
FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...THE MAIN THREAT FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT...WHICH
WILL OCCUR SOMETIME LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. HIGHEST
POPS LOOK TO BE DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...ALTHOUGH MODELS STILL
DON/T AGREE ON THE EXACT TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY. FOR NOW...WILL GO
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S FOR THURSDAY WITH THE EXPECTED
CLOUDS/PRECIP AROUND.

BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...COOLER AND DRIER WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION FOR THE LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. WILL KEEP POPS IN THE
FORECAST FOR FRIDAY...THOUGH...AS THE ECMWF SHOWS THE FRONT
LINGERING NEARBY...AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE COULD RIDE ALONG IT.
TEMPS MAY FINALLY BE CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE
70S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...ALLOWED FOR LESS HUMID AIR TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
REGION.

BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE
OVER EASTERN NY ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...SOME LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WITHIN THE LOW LEVEL N-
NE FLOW...AND THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AT KPSF THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE SCT CIGS AROUND 3-4 KFT CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
KALB/KPOU THIS MORNING...WITH CLEAR SKIES AT KGFL. A LIGHT N-NE
WINDS OF AROUND 5 KTS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.

EVENTUALLY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION SHOULD ALLOW
ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO CLEAR SKIES OUT BY LATER THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TERMINALS. SOME RADIATIONAL FOG
MAY DEVELOP FOR LATE TONIGHT FOR KGFL/KPSF WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND
CALM WINDS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NT - TUE NT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM SOUTHEASTERN QUEBEC AND NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND TODAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL
MOVE OVER NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY...AND DOMINATE THE
WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND PERSISTENT DRY WEATHER.

THE RH VALUES WILL LOWER TO 35 TO 55 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
ANOTHER EXCELLENT RECOVERY OF 95 TO 100 PERCENT WITH DEW FORMATION
BY SATURDAY MORNING.

THE WINDS WILL BE NORTH TO NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH TODAY...AND
BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING TUESDAY.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND...AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. RIVER FLOWS WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE TOWARD THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BGM
NEAR TERM...BGM
SHORT TERM...BGM
LONG TERM...FRUGIS
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...BGM/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...BGM/WASULA


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