Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 061338
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
938 AM EDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY. SOME RAIN
IS ALSO EXPECTED TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY MOVES AWAY FROM
THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS. IN ITS
WAKE...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF
MOTHERS DAY WITH COOL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 938 AM EDT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SITUATED OVER EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA...AND IT CONTINUES TO SIT AND SPIN OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS FEATURE...A
BATCH OF RAIN SHOWERS IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...AND NW CT. SOME OF THIS RAINFALL
IS LOCALLY MODERATE IN INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH IT IS MOVING FAIRLY
QUICKLY.

CLOUDS HAVE CONTINUED TO ADVANCED NORTHWARD...AND MUCH OF THE
REGION IS BACK TO BEING OVERCAST. THE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...WHERE SKIES CONTINUE TO BE
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY. WITH CLOUDS CONTINUING TO HEAD
NORTHWARD...ALL OF THE CWA LOOKS TO BE OVERCAST BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.

DISTURBANCES ROTATING NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
CUT-OFF LOW WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BRING BATCHES OF RAIN INTO
OUR REGION TODAY. BEST CHANCES THROUGH THIS MORNING WILL BE FOR
AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY...THEN SPREADING NORTH AND WEST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE GENERALLY COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THE SURFACE CYCLONE WILL TRACK INLAND NEAR THE
DELMARVA AS IT GETS CAPTURED BY THE UPPER LOW MOVING NORTHWARD.
WILL MENTION LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF
THE AREA...WITH CHANCE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN AREAS. THERE WILL BE
SOME PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER EVEN WHERE POPS ARE HIGH...WITH
MULTIPLE BOUTS OF RAIN MOVING THROUGH. WILL MENTION ISOLATED
THUNDER FOR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS AS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY
DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES ARE ACTUALLY EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 60S ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WHERE ONSET OF RAIN IS DELAYED UNTIL
AFTERNOON...AND ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WHERE CLEARING HAS OCCURRED
EARLY THIS MORNING. COOLER 50S WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS
WHERE CLOUDS/RAIN WILL MOVE IN QUICKER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
RAIN WILL BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT AND SHOWERY THIS EVENING AS
THE CUT-OFF LOW HALTS ITS NORTHWARD PROGRESS NEAR THE MASON-DIXON
LINE AS IT BEGINS TO FILL/WEAKEN. PLENTY OF CLOUDS WILL LINGER
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH PLENTY OF RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE POPS OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL MENTION SLIGHT/LOW
CHANCE INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY COULD END UP BEING THE NICEST DAY WE HAVE SEEN SINCE
APRIL ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WE WILL LIKELY HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL
AFTERNOON FOR MANY LOCATIONS TO SEE PARTIAL SUNSHINE. THE CUT-OFF
LOW IS EXPECTED TO FINALLY DEPART AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST DUE TO A DIGGING UPSTREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. SOME BRIEF RIDGING SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST SOME BREAKS OF SUNSHINE.
WILL STILL HAVE TO CARRY LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
FOR A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO...AS WE WILL STILL BE IN A CYCLONIC
FLOW THROUGH AROUND MID AFTERNOON. TEMPS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER TO
MID 60S BY LATE AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES AND EVENTUALLY INTO OUR REGION. GOOD LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND
AHEAD OF THE LEADING SHORT WAVE WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS. THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

AFTER A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY
MORNING...IT WILL TURN BREEZY...COOLER AND DRIER FOR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE GUSTY W-NW
WINDS ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. GOOD MIXING DEVELOPING DUE TO COLD ADVECTION WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN WINDS GUSTING TO BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH ACROSS THE
REGION...WITH SOME ISOLATED 40 MPH GUSTS. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DRY CONDITIONS PERSISTING. IT WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS...WITH MID 30S TO LOWER 40S
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERALL ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME
HIGHS AND ABOVE NORMAL NIGHTTIME LOWS.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT RIDGING WILL BUILD IN MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER
THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED. A PIECE OF SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL
QUICKLY APPROACH FROM THE PLAINS TUESDAY. THIS ENERGY WILL GET
ABSORBED INTO THE DEVELOPING LONGWAVE TROUGH AS PIECES OF
NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY ROTATE ABOUT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT
MOVES OVER EASTERN QUEBEC AND NEWFOUNDLAND/LABRADOR THIS WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT EXTENDING WELL EASTWARD FROM LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL APPROACH ON TUESDAY. WILL HAVE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR WET WEATHER/RAIN ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS INTO THE EVENING. THE BOUNDARY IS NOT EXPECTED TO
LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER FLOW SHOULD KEEP THE
BOUNDARY SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO MOVES EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT AND PASS TO OUR SOUTH
SOMETIME WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE GUIDANCE
WHEN EXACTLY THIS HAPPENING...HOWEVER THE PATTERN IS WET WITH OUR
AREA TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND LOW.

AS WE HEAD INTO THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK...RIDGING IS ANTICIPATED
TO BUILD IN AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY WITH ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ON THE APPROACH.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW LOCATED OVER THE VIRGINIA/NORTH CAROLINA COAST
WILL MOVE GRADUALLY NORTHWARD AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATES ABOUT
IT TODAY. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH THE DELMARVA AREA BY
THIS EVENING...THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT.
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH TODAY AS
THE LOW SHIFTS NORTHWARD AND THE SHORT WAVE ROTATES ABOUT THE EAST
SIDE OF THE IT.

CLOUDS HAVE ERODED KGFL AND KALB HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL MOVE BACK
NORTH. VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR WITH THE RAIN THEN PERSIST
INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE.

LIGHT NORTH TO EAST WINDS SHIFTING TO EAST TO SOUTHEAST BY
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
SAT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SAT NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
SUN: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. WINDY. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUN NIGHT-MON NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUE: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
RESULT IN PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES TODAY. SOME RAIN
IS ALSO EXPECTED TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW FINALLY MOVES AWAY FROM
THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN CROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS. IN ITS
WAKE...DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF
MOTHERS DAY WITH COOL TEMPERATURES.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL DROP TO
AROUND 40 TO 50 PERCENT ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND 55 TO 75 PERCENT
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 90 AND
100 PERCENT TONIGHT...DROPPING TO AROUND 50 TO 70 PERCENT SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHEAST AROUND 5 TO 15 MPH...BECOMING EAST
AT 5 TO 10 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST ON
SATURDAY AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW MEANDERS CLOSE TO THE REGION. SOME RAIN WILL OCCUR
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. A FEW
ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER
LOW NEARBY. MORE SHOWERS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. DRY WEATHER SHOULD
RETURN FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

TOTAL QPF THROUGH THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE AROUND A HALF TO TWO
THIRDS OF AN INCH...WITH SOME HIGH TERRAIN /ESPECIALLY IN THE
CATSKILLS/ SEEING CLOSE TO AN INCH. WITH VEGETATION CONTINUING TO
GREEN UP...THIS RAINFALL WILL NOT CAUSE ANY HYDROLOGY ISSUES FOR
RIVERS AND STREAMS. ONLY VERY MODEST RISES ARE EXPECTED ON AREA
RIVERS AND STREAMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...IAA
AVIATION...IAA
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/JPV



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