Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 240530
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
130 AM EDT WED SEP 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY WEATHER TO EASTERN NEW YORK
AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL TRACK NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY BRINGING SOME RAIN FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND SOUTHERN
VERMONT SOUTH AND EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN FROM THE
GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
AS OF 130 AM EDT...PATCHY CLOUDS HAVE REDEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS. NEAR-TERM MODELS SUGGEST THAT THESE
CLOUDS PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...AND MAY EVEN
EXPAND SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD AS A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL E FLOW
ASCENDS THE SE ADIRONDACKS/CATSKILLS...POSSIBLY ALLOWING FOR
INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS THROUGH
DAYBREAK IN CASE CLOUD COVERAGE NEEDS TO BE EXPANDED.

ELSEWHERE...SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR. WITH DEWPOINTS ABOUT 5-8
DEGREES HIGHER THAN THIS TIME LAST NIGHT...THINK PATCHY/AREAS OF
FOG SHOULD BE MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP TOWARD SUNRISE...ESP WITHIN
THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND ADJACENT TO THE CT RIVER VALLEY.
SOME OF THIS FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE...AND WILL ALSO WATCH
TRENDS IN CASE ANY SPS OR HEADLINES NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR DENSE FOG.

MIN TEMPS STILL ON TRACK TO FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 40S IN MOST
AREAS...WITH SOME UPPER 30S POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
TACONICS...SCHOHARIE VALLEY AND SHELTERED VALLEYS IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TOMORROW...A NICE EARLY AUTUMN DAY IS EXPECTED WITH LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION INCREASING...AS THE SFC ANTICYCLONE RETREATS DOWNSTREAM OVER THE
GULF OF MAINE. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVES IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. LOW PRESSURE MOVES N/NE FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. SOME
HIGH CLOUDS WILL START TO INCREASE FROM THE S/SW IN THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CAPITAL REGION SOUTH AND EAST.
H850 TEMPS RISE BACK TO +8C TO +10C WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS IN THE
U60S TO L70S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U50S TO M60S OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WED NIGHT...STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE ON THE TRACK OF THE CYCLONE ALONG THE EAST COAST. OUR
FCST FAVORS A BLEND OF THE LATEST GFS/ECMWF/NAM. SOME WARM
ADVECTION LIGHT RAINFALL WILL START TO MOVE INTO THE SRN TIER BTWN
06Z-12Z...MOST OTHER LOCATIONS WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
ONLY...AND MILDER TEMPS IN THE 40S TO L50S.

THU-THU NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY BRIEFLY CLOSE OFF OVER UPSTATE
NY AND PA WITH SFC WAVE TRACKING SOUTH AND EAST OF NYC. A DECENT
FETCH OF ATLANTIC MOISTURE IS EXPECTED WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF THE I-90 CORRIDOR...ESPECIALLY THE SE
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...SRN TACONICS AND NW CT. THIS COULD
BE A VERY BENEFICIAL RAINFALL WITH THE ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS
IN PLACE. A SHARP CUTOFF IS EXPECTED IN THE PCPN SHIELD...WITH THE
BETTER QG OMEGA/LIFT OVER THE SE EXTREME OF THE AREA. SOME
LOCATIONS NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL REGION MAY STAY DRY THE
ENTIRE EVENT...AND EVEN HAVE A LITTLE SUNSHINE ON THU. HIGHS WERE
FAVORED CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE NAM AND GFS MOS...AS THERE IS
QUITE A RANGE BASED ON THE TIMING OF THE OVER RUNNING RAINFALL.
THE NAM MOS IS MUCH COOLER THAN THE GFS MOS. THE RAINFALL SHOULD
TAPER OFF ACROSS THE E/SE ZONES EARLY THU NIGHT. HIGHS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE U60S TO L70S NORTH AND WEST OF THE TRI
CITIES...AND U50S TO M60S TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. LOWS WILL BE IN
THE 40S TO L50S. TOTAL RAINFALL MAY RANGE FROM A QUARTER OF AN
INCH TO TWO THIRDS OF AN INCH ACROSS THE ERN CATSKILLS...MID
HUDSON VALLEY...AND SRN BERKS SOUTH AND EAST...AND NOTHING TO A
TENTH OF AN INCH TO THE NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST FEATURES ANOTHER NICE STRETCH OF WEATHER
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...AND TEMPS RISING TO ABOVE NORMAL
LEVELS FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL BRING ISOLD
SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LOTS OF FAIR AND PLEASANT EARLY AUTUMN WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OFFSHORE ON
FRIDAY WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGING BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 60S
TO MID 70S.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...GORGEOUS WEATHER WITH INCREASING
MID AND UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS. H850 TEMPS RISE ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE
+13C TO +15C RANGE. PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED ON THE WEEKEND.
MAX TEMPS SHOULD RUN 10 TO AS MUCH AS 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE U70S TO L80S IN THE VALLEYS...AND U60S TO L70S ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND LOWS IN THE 40S TO M50S. HUMIDITY LEVELS
SHOULD BE FAIRLY COMFORTABLE.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DESCENDS S/SE FROM THE
ST LAWRENCE RIVER VALLEY WITH AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT
CHC OF SHOWERS MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TEMPS WILL LOWER BACK TO
SEASONAL LEVELS.

OVERALL...BELOW NORMAL PCPN...AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED IN
THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE STILL CONTROLLING THE WEATHER BUT SOME WEAK WARM
ADVECTION SHOULD START BY SUNRISE. WITH DEW POINTS A LITTEL HIGHER
THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS...AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION AND IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING...SOME PERIODS OF FOG ARE LIKELY BETWEEN
08Z-12Z...ESPECIALLY AT KGFL AND KPSF...WITH POTENTIAL IFR
CONDITIONS. INTERVALS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES POSSIBLE AT KALB AND KPOU.

AFTER 13Z...ANY FOG AND LOW CLOUDS SHOULD LIFT AND BURN OFF AND VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR THE REST OF THE DAY AND EVENING.

LIGHT WINDS AT 3 KT OR LESS THROUGH SUNRISE SHOULD BECOME SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST AT LESS THAN 10 KT LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. WINDS DIMINISH BACK TO LIGHT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF RA.
THURSDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT.  NO SIG WX.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING COOL AND DRY WEATHER TO EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW.  LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WILL TRACK NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BRINGING SOME RAIN FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT AND
SOUTHERN VERMONT SOUTH AND EAST.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK IN
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT. THEY WILL BECOME EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AT 5-15 MPH ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN
10 MPH.

THE RH WILL INCREASE TO 90 TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT...THEN FALL TO
40 TO 60 PERCENT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE RH VALUES WILL INCREASE TO
90 TO 100 PERCENT ONCE AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING. HEAVY DEW FORMATION
IS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT 5 DAYS ENDING SUNDAY.

DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
ON THURSDAY...AND COULD BRING A PERIOD OF RAIN TO PORTIONS OF THE
SE CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT. IF THE RAINFALL
OCCURS...AMOUNTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE A QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS
OF AN INCH IN THESE AREA. MUCH LOWER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE FURTHER
NORTH.

OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER.

RIVERS AND STREAMS...MANY OF WHICH HAVE BEEN RUNNING ON THE LOW
SIDE...WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN STEADY THROUGH THE WEEK.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IAA/WASULA
NEAR TERM...IAA/KL/WASULA
SHORT TERM...WASULA
LONG TERM...WASULA
AVIATION...IAA/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/WASULA
HYDROLOGY...KL/WASULA







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