Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000
FXUS61 KALY 031721
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
1221 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AS A STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
AREA...WITH SNOW ARRIVING BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW WILL CHANGE
TO A WINTRY MIX TONIGHT...BEFORE ENDING BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. ONCE
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG IT
KEEPING UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE REGION
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 1215 PM EST...CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE REGION. ALTHOUGH
MOST OF THE DAY WILL BE QUIET AND DRY...THE LATEST 3KM HRRR
GUIDANCE SUGGEST LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY AND CATSKILLS BY AROUND 3-4 PM. IT
SHOULD REACH THE CAPITAL REGION AND HUDSON VALLEY BY 4-5 PM...AND
LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA AREA...AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BY AROUND 5-6
PM OR SO. MOST AREAS WILL ONLY SEE A COATING OF ACCUMULATION BY
SUNSET...ALTHOUGH A FEW SPOTS IN FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS
MAY SEE UP TO AN INCH AND A HALF.

LIGHT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO SOUTH AND HIGHS TODAY EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 20S TO AROUND 30. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE RIGHT THROUGH
THE EVENING THANKS TO PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ALL GUIDANCE CONSISTENT ON STRONG WARM ADVECTION...ISENTROPIC LIFT...LOW
LEVEL JET ENERGY AND FRONTOGENESIS CONTRIBUTING TO A MIXED
PRECIPITATION EVENT TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE WARM
LAYER ALOFT LOOK LIKE IT WILL GET AS FAR NORTH AS THE MOHAWK
VALLEY TO AROUND THE MA/VT BORDER...AND AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THAT
LINE WILL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN...WHILE AREAS ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE LINE WILL SEE A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW. SNOW
TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 2 TO 5 INCH RANGE... AND ANY ICE
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD BE
AT MOST 1 OR 2 TENTHS OF AN INCH...BUT MANY AREAS WILL SEE A TENTH
OF AN INCH OR LESS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY DROP A DEGREE OR TWO
TONIGHT...IF THAT...THEN SLOWLY RISE LATER IN THE NIGHT.

PRECIPITATION ENDS RAPIDLY AS THE FORCING SHIFTS EAST QUICKLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND AS THE COLD FRONT BUILDS EAST THROUGH
THE DAY...AND FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES INCREASES...INTERVALS OF
CLOUDS AND SUN WITH SCATTERED TO ISOLATED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
MOST OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE 3OS TO LOWER
40S...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH MIXING WE GET WITH THE WINDS...HOW
MUCH SUN...AND IF COLD FROZEN SNOW COVERED GROUND COULD LIMIT THE
SURFACE WARMING.

A TRAILING PIECE OF UPPER ENERGY IS STILL EXPECTED TO TRACK OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND PROVIDE SOME MOISTURE AND FRONTOGENESIS TO
PUSH THE NORTHERN EDGE OF PRECIPITATION BACK UP TO THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHWEST CT. THERE ARE STILL
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTIES AS TO HOW FAR NORTH ANY AREAS OF SNOW
CAN GET...SO INCLUDING CHANCES TO JUST NORTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN VT. THERE COULD BE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW IN SOUTHERN
AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THIS TRAILING SYSTEM
SHOULD EXIT THURSDAY MORNING BUT CLOUDS WILL LINGER AND COLD
ADVECTION WILL DEEPEN. SO HIGHS THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID
20S...SOME TEENS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO FEATURE AN ABSENCE OF
BIG STORMS...WITH TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODERATING BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL.

THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTHWARD FROM A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WHILE IT
WILL BE DRY...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO START THE DAY.
THE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD BY LATE IN THE
DAY...INDUCING A LIGHT RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW. HOWEVER...WITH THE
COLD AIR MASS REMAINING IN PLACE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL WITH TEENS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND LOWER 20S IN THE
VALLEYS. TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE HIGH
PUSHES FARTHER SOUTH WHILE A NORTHERN STREAM UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP ARRIVES LATER SATURDAY...AS ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND
ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. TIMING FOR SNOW
SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING...ESPECIALLY FOR
AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ADIRONDACKS. WITH A MILDER SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RESPOND BY WARMING
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S FOR MOST AREAS. THE TROUGH SHOULD SWEEP
ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY WITH
DRY CONDITIONS. THE AIR MASS IN WAKE OF THE TROUGH IS SIMILAR...SO
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SATURDAY/S READINGS.
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES BRINGING MORE SNOW
SHOWERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A STORM
SYSTEM BRINGS A WINTRY MIX TO THE REGION.

THIS AFTERNOON...OVERCAST CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER DURING
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED LIGHT SNOW
ALONG IT APPROACH FROM WESTERN NEW YORK. BASED ON LATEST TRENDS AND
GUIDANCE...LOOKS LIKE LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BEGIN AT THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 21Z-23Z. HAVE INDICATED VCSH IN THE TAFS AFTER 20Z TO
ACCOUNT FOR ANY LIGHT SNOW THAT BREAKS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ONCE
LIGHT SNOW STARTS...FLYING CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY BECOME IFR.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW THROUGH 00Z WITH A
SOUTHERLY WIND 5-10 KNOTS...WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AT
KALB AND KPSF.

TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WARMER AIR WILL MOVE IN ALOFT ACROSS THE
REGION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AFTER 00Z...WITH A TRANSITION TO A WINTRY
MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AT KALB...KPOU AND KPSF. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN WILL BE AT KPOU...WITH
MUCH OF THE MIX BEING SNOW/SLEET AT KALB AND KPSF BEFORE A QUICK
TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AFTER 03Z. KGFL LOOKS TO HANG ON TO THE
COLDER AIR A LITTLE LONGER...WITH A WINTRY MIX PRIMARILY OF SNOW AND
SLEET ALTHOUGH FREEZING RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE.

STEADY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BECOME SCATTERED BY 06Z AT THE TAF SITES
AND HAVE INDICATED VCSH WITH MVFR FLYING CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY TO FALL AS RAIN AT
KALB...KPOU AND KPSF...WITH A MIX AT KGFL. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL
EXIT QUICKLY TO THE EAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH VFR FLYING
CONDITIONS AND DRY WEATHER RETURNING TO THE TAF SITES WITH OVERCAST
SKIES AROUND 5 KFT.

AS WARMER AIR ALOFT MOVES IN...SNOW WILL CHANGE TO A MIX OF SLEET
AND FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING WITH CONTINUED IFR CONDITIONS. ANY
MIXED PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND 06Z
WEDNESDAY.

WINDS WILL INITIALLY BE SOUTHERLY 5-10 KNOTS BEFORE BECOMING
WEST/SOUTHWESTERLY AROUND 10 KNOTS AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NT-WED: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SN/PL/FZRA TO -RA.
WED NT-THU: MODERATE TO HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHC -SN KALB
NORTH...WITH LIKELY SN AT KPOU.
FRI-SUN: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
NO WIDESPREAD HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 5
DAYS. HOWEVER...ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SNOW...MIXED PRECIPITATION AND/OR RAIN.

ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION FOR TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. WITH THE CONTINUED COLD CONDITIONS IN PLACE...ICE
WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND THICKEN ON AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS...CREEKS...LAKES... AND PONDS.

A BRIEF WARMUP MAY OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY...BUT THE SHORT TIMING AND
MAGNITUDE OF THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY NOT BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE ANY HYDRO
CONCERNS. ANOTHER COLD AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK BELOW FREEZING.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING OBSERVED
AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE VISIT THE
ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON OUR
WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ001-
     013.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ032-
     033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR MAZ001-
     025.
VT...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     VTZ013>015.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRUGIS/NAS
NEAR TERM...FRUGIS/11/NAS
SHORT TERM...NAS
LONG TERM...JPV
AVIATION...IRL
HYDROLOGY...11/NAS



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