Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 280118
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
918 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
In the wake of a strong upper level disturbance and cold front, a
cool air mass will be over the region tonight, as high pressure
builds in from the Mid Atlantic Region. Generally fair weather is
expected for Wednesday and Wednesday night, although an isolated
shower is possible across portions of the southern Adirondacks and
southern Vermont. A warm front will approach from the Ohio Valley
and Great Lakes Region for Thursday into Thursday night, bringing
more showers and thunderstorms. Warm and humid conditions, along
with several rounds of showers and thunderstorms, are expected for
Friday into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 915 PM EDT, still some isolated showers/thunder noted
across central NYS and also within the west central Mohawk
Valley. Some lingering isolated showers/thunderstorms will
remain possible through late this evening, mainly from I-90
southward. Then, later this evening, there could be enough
forcing for additional isolated/scattered showers across
northern areas, where slight chance PoPs have been retained.

Otherwise, expect clearing with areas of fog developing
elsewhere overnight. Best chance for fog, some of which could be
locally dense, appears to be north of the Mohawk River, across
Saratoga/Warren Cos and perhaps into portions of western New
England. It will be quite cool, with lows mainly in the upper
40s to lower 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Wednesday-Wednesday night, generally fair through the period.
However, lingering instability and weak disturbances passing
southeast across northern New England could allow isolated
showers to develop in the afternoon across portions of the
southern Adirondacks and southern VT. It will be a bit warmer
Wednesday with highs mainly in the 70s, and lows Wed night in
the 50s.

Thursday-Friday night, the leading edge of much warmer/more
humid air will approach Thursday afternoon, as a strong low
level jet impinges on the region. Strong forcing may produce an
upstream MCS across the northern Great Lakes early Thursday
morning which may then track east/southeast into at least
northern areas for later Thursday morning into the afternoon.
Most likely, this MCS should be weakening as it tracks into the
southern Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley region, feeding mainly
from elevated instability from central/western NYS. Have
indicated highest pops for areas north of I-90, with only
chances to the south. There remains considerable uncertainty
regarding the exact placement of the incoming surface warm front
for later Thursday into Thursday night. If there is some form
of an MCS across northern areas, then the warm front may be much
slower to lift northward into our region. If there is much less
activity, then the warm front may have a better chance to lift
north and east through the region. Have trended a closer to the
cooler side of guidance, with the expectation of at least some
form of showers/storms impacting northern and central areas
Thursday afternoon. Either way, it appears that multiple rounds
of showers/thunderstorms will impact the region Thursday night
into Friday as some form of a low level thermal gradient remains
nearby. There could be some potential for strong/severe
thunderstorms with 0-6 km bulk shear remaining 30-40 KT, and
possible SB Capes exceeding 1500 J/kg across at least portions
of the region Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The long term period is expected to start out unsettled as a series
of frontal boundaries are expected to impact the forecast area. The
unsettled weather is expected to continue into early next week as a
frontal boundary stalls to our south and east.

Showers along with scattered thunderstorms are expected Saturday and
Sunday as a low pressure system and a cold front move across the
region. Highs on Saturday will be in the mid 70s to upper 80s with
lows Saturday night in the 60s to around 70 and highs on Sunday in
the upper 60s to upper 80s.

Sunday night through Tuesday...The frontal boundary will stall south
and east of the region as an area of low pressure moves
northeastward along the frontal boundary. This will keep unsettled
weather across the region into the middle of next week. Expect lows
Sunday night to be in the mid 50s to mid 60s with highs on Monday in
the upper 60s to mid 80s, lows Monday night in the mid 50s to mid
60s, and highs on Tuesday in the upper 60s to lower 80s.

Overall expect temperatures to average close to normal with
precipitation above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Isolated showers will remain possible this evening, although
chances of impacting a TAF site appears quite low, so no
mention at this time.

Otherwise, patchy/areas of fog will likely develop later
tonight, with best chances at KGFL and KPSF, where a period of
IFR is expected between roughly 97z-11Z/Wed.

Once any fog/low clouds burn off, expect VFR conditions
throughout Wednesday.

Winds will become light/variable overnight, then trend into the
west to northwest at 8-12 KT by late Wednesday morning into the
afternoon, with some gusts possibly reaching around 20 Kt.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA.
Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
In the wake of a strong upper level disturbance and cold front, a
cool air mass will be over the region tonight, as high pressure
builds in from the Mid Atlantic Region. Generally fair weather is
expected for Wednesday and Wednesday night, although an isolated
shower is possible across portions of the southern Adirondacks and
southern Vermont. A warm front will approach from the Ohio Valley
and Great Lakes Region for Thursday into Thursday night, bringing
more showers and thunderstorms. Warm and humid conditions, along
with several rounds of showers and thunderstorms, are expected for
Friday into Saturday.

The RH values will recover close to 100 percent tonight. Expect
minimum RH values of 35 to 55 percent on Wednesday.

The winds will from the southwest to northwest at 5 to 15 mph
today. The winds will be from the southwest to west at 10 mph or
less tonight, and then increase from the west to northwest at
10 to 15 mph with some gusts to 20-25 mph on Wednesday.

Winds will be stronger, and variable in direction in and
near any thunderstorms.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No widespread hydrological problems are anticipated over the
next several days. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
are expected through the early evening hours, as a cold front
and upper low impact the region. Basin average rainfall amounts
will generally be a tenth to a third of an inch in some
locations.

A brief period of mainly dry weather is expected most of
Wednesday into Wednesday night with ridging briefly building in from
the south. An active pattern sets up Thursday into the weekend
with showers and thunderstorms possible with increasing humidity
levels. Rainfall amounts will vary based on where any
convection occurs. The most widespread potential rainfall is
expected Thursday and Saturday. Rainfall amounts THU-THU night
may range from a quarter of an inch to an inch with some locally
higher amounts in thunderstorms. The higher totals right now may
be across the northern basins of the HSA.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our
website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/Wasula
NEAR TERM...KL/11
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...11
AVIATION...KL/NAS
FIRE WEATHER...KL/Wasula
HYDROLOGY...KL/Wasula



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