Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KALY 311721
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
120 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LESS HUMID AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH AN
INCREASING WESTERLY BREEZE...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

AS OF 120 PM EDT...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW
DIURNAL CU HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF WHICH SOME ARE
MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE VALLEY.  SO A PTSUNNY/MOSUNNY FORECAST WILL
CONTINUE.  MAX TEMPS LOOK GREAT ALONG WITH A WESTERLY BREEZE OF 5-15
MPH.

THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH DEEPER MIXING IN ITS
WAKE...WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL LOWERING OF HUMIDITY LEVELS BY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS FALLING WELL INTO THE 50S. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME OCCASIONALLY GUSTY...MAKING IT FEEL MORE
COMFORTABLE DESPITE TEMPERATURES STILL RUNNING SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. HIGHS TEMPS LOOK MAINLY IN THE MID 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...HOWEVER A FEW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR AREAS WELL NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY
AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SHORT
WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY...PROVIDING THE FOCUS
FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THERE IS QUITE A DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE INSTABILITY FORECASTS
FROM THE NAM AND GFS...WHICH ARE MORE PRONOUNCED THAN USUAL. THE
NAM IS INDICATING MODERATE LEVELS OF INSTABILITY WITH THE GFS IS
SHOWING MUCH LESS. IN REALITY IT WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHERE IN
BETWEEN...WITH POTENTIALLY 500-1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE DEVELOPING BY
EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT...MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL BE INCREASING TO AROUND 6.0-6.5 C/KM. WITH DEEP
LAYER 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40+ KTS WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION SHOULD SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY DEVELOP. THE MAIN QUESTION
WILL BE THE INSTABILITY. SHOULD HIGHER LEVELS OF CAPE DEVELOP
THERE WOULD BE A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR HAIL/WIND WITH ANY STRONG
STORMS. WILL NOT MENTION ANY ENHANCED WORDING FOR NOW BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

A BREAK IN THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS THEN
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF
SUNDAY. THEN WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES IN A FAST ZONAL FLOW
PATTERN WITH A BROAD TROUGH POSITIONED ACROSS THE REGION. AS OF
NOW IT APPEARS AREAS MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE A GRADUALLY DEEPENING LONG WAVE
TROF OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...WITH MINOR DISTURBANCES
ROTATING AROUND THE LONG WAVE TROF AND THROUGH THE ALBANY FORECAST
AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN UNSETTLED PERIOD OF WEATHER WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FORECAST JUST ABOUT EVERY PERIOD FOR
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE STRONGEST OF THE DISTURBANCES...ALONG WITH A COLD
FRONT...WILL BRING A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS TO THE REGION
STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT (MAINLY WELL NORTHWEST OF ALBANY)...THEN
MOST OF THE REGION MONDAY AND EARLY MONDAY NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION
WILL BE THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND LITCHFIELD COUNTY WHERE ONLY
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE FORECAST. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
MID 50S TO MID 60S. HIGHS MONDAY IN THE UPPER 70S AND 80S. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

WEAKER DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROF WILL RESULT
IN A 20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THEN SOME DRY WEATHER LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

A COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE LONG
WAVE TROF DEEPENS OVER THE REGION. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE
70S TO MID 80S. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. HIGHS
WEDNESDAY UPPER 60S TO LOWER 80S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT UPPER 40S
AND 50S. HIGHS THURSDAY UPPER 60S AND 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE WITH JUST SOME SCT DIURNAL CU OVER THE
REGION. THESE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY TODAY. GOOD MIXING THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW
FOR GUSTY W-NW WINDS...WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 10 KTS AND A FEW
GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR KALB/KPSF.

DURING THE EVENING HOURS...THE LOSS OF DAYTIME MIXING WILL ALLOW
SKIES TO CLEAR OUT AND WINDS TO DIMINISH.  SOME SCT PASSING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH WINDS
GENERALLY LIGHT OR CALM.

ON SATURDAY...BKN CIGS AROUND 4-5 KFT WILL DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING
HOURS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES BY THE REGION. A
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWER CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT...BUT NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN THE TIMING/COVERAGE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT
THIS TIME. S-SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KTS FOR DURING THE
DAY SATURDAY.


OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHRA.
MONDAY:  MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT:  MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LESS HUMID AIR WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH AN
INCREASING WESTERLY BREEZE...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL BE
APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY...BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND.

MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO
BE BETWEEN 35 AND 45 PERCENT...INCREASING TO MAXIMUM VALUES OF 85
TO 100 PERCENT TONIGHT. MIN RH VALUES SATURDAY WILL DROP TO AROUND
40 TO 50 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS TODAY WILL BE WESTERLY AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO 20 MPH...DECREASING TO AROUND 5 MPH TONIGHT. WINDS ON
SATURDAY WILL BE SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 15 MPH.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS THIS EVENING.

THEN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
FROM SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK EACH...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL ISN/T
EXPECTED...BUT ANY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOR DETAILS ON SPECIFIC AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...INCLUDING
OBSERVED AND FORECAST RIVER STAGES AND LAKE ELEVATIONS...PLEASE
VISIT THE ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE /AHPS/ GRAPHS ON
OUR WEBSITE.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JPV
NEAR TERM...BGM/FRUGIS/JPV
SHORT TERM...JPV
LONG TERM...GJM
AVIATION...FRUGIS
FIRE WEATHER...JPV
HYDROLOGY...FRUGIS/JPV

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/ALBANY


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.