Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 201818
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
218 PM EDT Fri Oct 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
October`s tranquil weather will continue into early next week,
with mild temperatures and mostly sunny skies. The pattern will
become more unsettled and slightly cooler next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
218 PM update...
A continuation of tranquil and mild October weather will
continue through Saturday.

A quiet evening will give way to patchy river valley fog in the
early morning hours of Saturday. The fog will be light and
should burn off before 830 AM.

A warming trend is forecast, as 925mb temperatures push to
between 16c and 18c on the back side of an anticyclone under a
building ridge. This should force temperatures into the
middle-70s Saturday afternoon, well above normal for the last
third of October.


950 AM update...
Another tranquil and beautiful October day is forecast. Sunny
skies will push temperatures back into the upper 60s this
afternoon.

Winds will increase to 8 to 12 knots by mid-afternoon with gusts
of 20 knots possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
4 am update... Although pushing to the east by this time, the
upper ridge near the east coast should still exert enough
influence to keep CNY/NEPA rain-free during this period.

Although perhaps a couple of degrees lower than Saturday due to
added cloud cover, highs Sunday afternoon will still average
well above normal for late October, ranging from the upper 60s-
mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
4 am update... In the big picture, the above referenced upper
ridge axis will continue to shift eastward into the Atlantic,
allowing a deepening trough axis to settle in over the eastern
CONUS. As a result, our very dry conditions as of late, should
ultimately be replaced by a rainy period across CNY/NEPA by the
middle of next week.

Although these large-scale ideas are well agreed upon by the
models, timing differences are still evident, especially early
next week with regards to the onset of steadier rainfall. Once
again, we played the middle road in this regard, indicating only
widely separated showers Monday, evolving into a steadier rain
by Tuesday. Showery conditions are likely to persist later in
the week as well, due to the proximity of the upper-level
trough.

Temperatures should start out mild early in the week, but will
trend cooler and more seasonable with time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Clear skies and VFR conditions are forecast through the next 24
hours. Winds will gust at 10 to 16 knots this afternoon before
calming down this evening.

The probability for fog at KELM Saturday morning appears low at
this time.

Outlook...

Saturday afternoon and Sunday...Mostly VFR. Possible early
morning restrictions in fog at KELM on Sunday.

Monday...Mostly VFR but possible restrictions at times due to
showers.

Tuesday...Restrictions likely with occasional rain showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...MLJ
AVIATION...DJP



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