Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 241826
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
226 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A large low pressure system will spread rain, showers and
cooler weather back across the region for Thursday and Friday.
Temperatures will trend slightly warmer over the weekend. Mainly
dry conditions are expected Saturday. This will be followed by
increasing chances for showers Sunday into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Satellite imagery shows a large cyclone over the midwest which
was slowly moving eastward. Water vapor channels on the GOES-16
shows two small short waves rippling northeast with central NY
and northeast PA in between waves early this afternoon. Hence
there was mainly some thin cirrus overhead with a few cumulus
underneath embedded in a southeasterly low-level flow.

All models concur with the satellite trend that the cyclone in
the midwest moves east tonight reaching the Ohio Valley by
Thursday morning, into NY and PA by Thursday afternoon and to
the New England coast by Friday morning. As this cyclone reaches
into the Ohio valley tonight the low-level southeasterly flow
will accelerate and increase the warm air advection or
isentropic lift. Initially most of central NY and northeast PA
will be dry so it will take some time for the precipitation to
arrive later tonight. However, this flow pattern will allow
clouds to overspread the region this evening.

The main slug of rain will arrive late tonight as lifting from
the upper level wave/jet streak left exit region on the east
side of the cyclone combines with the isentropic lift and
moisture advection. This occurs mainly between 12z and 18z
Thursday. By Thursday afternoon, the dry slot from the upper low
will be across much of central NY and northeast PA and the rain
will become more showery in nature with coverage diminishing.
So have categorical POPs for rain in the morning tapering to
showers in the afternoon.

Then by Thursday evening, the upper level low works east and
another batch of precipitation will slide into most of northeast
PA to eastern NY. Since the upper level low will be nearly
overhead it will be colder aloft and have added some thunder in
these areas to our forecast as showalter indices are below zero
for the evening. By later Thursday night, the flow turns
northwest with plenty of moisture so we continue wrap around showers
through through the early morning hours of Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
220 PM EDT Update...
By Friday morning the stacked low will be east of the region
and a few showers will be lingering over the region as NW flow
will prevail over the region. This system will have minimal CAA
with it as heights will quickly build back behind this system.
By Friday evening the mid and uppr-lvl ridge will start to
build into the region. The NW flow should keep an inversion in
place throughout the afternoon keeping mostly cloudy skies over
the region, thus sfc temps will stay in the low to mid 60s
across much of the area. NEPA may reach the uppr 60s.

By Sat morning the ridge will continue to build eastward and heights
will continue to build over the region. Sfc temps will easily be
able to rebound into the mid to upper 70s on Sat. A wave embedded
within the outer edge of the ridge will slide across the region on
Sat. This may create a few showers over NEPA and central NY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
220 PM EDT Update...
Minor chances were made to the previous forecast.

The weather during this period continues to look active as the next
storm system to move into to the region will start to slide
into the Great Lakes region on Sunday. This next stacked Low
looks like it will remain semi-stationary through Wednesday and
create the chance for rain showers each day of the extended
forecast through Wednesday evening. The trend for a wet spring
continues.

Temps during the forecast period will be at or slightly above the
seasonal norm.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Expect VFR conditions into the evening as there
will be a few cumulus underneath a thin cirrus layer.
By this evening, the cumulus falls apart as a mid cloud layer
works in all TAFs. We expect rain to begin 9-10z at BGM, ELM,
ITH and AVP and by 13z RME and SYR. When the rain first arrives
it will be VFR but all TAFs will drop to MVFR from ceilings by
13-15z. We expect IFR at BGM and ITH at 15z.

Winds will be southeasterly 7-10 knots gusting to 15 knots or so
this afternoon and then southeast 10-15 knots or so gusting to
over 20 knots with a few spots gusting to 25-29 knots later
tonight and Thursday morning.

Outlook...

Thursday afternoon through Friday night...Rain/showers with
associated restrictions likely due to low pressure system.

Saturday through Saturday night...Mainly VFR.

Sunday-Monday...Showers and restrictions becoming likely.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJN
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...KAH
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...DJN



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