Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 010549
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1248 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL HELP GENERATE WIDESPREAD SNOW STARTING EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN
ACTIVE AS ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING A MIX OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY....FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
TWEAKED TEMPERATURES FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING DETAILS...BUT HIGH
THIN CLOUDS ARE ALREADY EN ROUTE AND TEMPERATURES WILL SOON LEVEL
OFF AND THEN RISE OVERNIGHT. FORECAST OTHERWISE ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 7 PM...STRONG YET TRANSIENT 1042MB HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER US
EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A CRYSTAL CLEAR SKY AND RADIATIONAL
COOLING. HOWEVER...THE VERY BRISK FLOW ALOFT IS ALREADY SPREADING
THICKENING CLOUDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WITH THE APPROACH OF OUR
NEXT SYSTEM.

FORECAST UPDATED TO CHASE DETAILS OF RADIATIONAL COOLING THIS
EVENING...THEN QUICK OVERSPREADING OF HIGH-TO-MID LEVEL CLOUDS
MIDNIGHT-4AM ALONG WITH RISING TEMPERATURES...FOLLOWED BY INITIAL
ENTRANCE OF LIGHT SNOW FOR PART OF THE AREA PRIOR TO DAWN. MODEL
AGREEMENT AS MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM DISCUSSION IS DECENT. IN
THE VERY NEAR TERM...THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY DRY LOWER LEVELS TO
OVERCOME VIA TOP DOWN MOISTENING...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT
WHEN IT DOES OCCUR...MOST OF THE 7-14 KFT LAYER WILL BE AT
DENDRITIC GROWTH TEMPERATURES. AT THE SAME TIME FORCED ASCENT WILL
OCCUR ALOFT FROM THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF 300MB JET. CAN ALSO SEE
ISENTROPIC LIFT SUGGESTED VIA 290-295K SURFACES...WITH WIND
UPGLIDING THE 700-600MB LEVELS. NOT ABRUPT...YET VERY BROAD AREA
OF LIFT...INVOLVING THAT DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER. BASED ON THESE
FACTORS...I QUICKLY BRING IN INITIAL LIGHT SNOW WSW TO ENE INTO
THE TWIN TIERS REGION 09Z-12Z /RELATED TO THE WARM AIR ADVECTION
ON FRONT SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM/...TO BE FOLLOWED BY REMAINDER OF THE
AREA SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT AS DISCUSSED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
4 PM UPDATE...
MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS FAIRLY GOOD FOR THE SUN-SUN NGT SYSTEM.
S/WV PHASING THAT IS PROGGED TO OCCUR LATER TNT OVER THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS...WILL HEAD EWD SUN-SUN NGT...AND ACTIVATE A STRUNG OUT SFC
FRNT JUST TO OUR S...THEREBY ENHANCING WAA FORCING/OVERRUNNING
POTENTIAL.

THE MAIN IDEA IS THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF LGT SNOW WILL SPREAD
INTO THE CWA FROM ABT 12-15Z SUN...WITH THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST
SNOW ANTICIPATED FROM ABT 21Z SUN-06Z MON...WITH THE SYNOPTIC PCPN
SHIELD PULLING EWD AND OUT OF CNY/NE PA THEREAFTER. INTERESTING
TERRAIN EFFECTS ARE NOTED ONCE AGN IN MOST MODEL SOLNS...WITH A
DEEP SWLY FLOW PATN LIKELY AIDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
DOWNSLOPING/ASSOCD PCPN MINIMA IN OUR FINGER LAKES/CNTRL SRN TIER
ZNS OF NY. SOMEWHAT HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE PROGGED OVER THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU...EXTENDING INTO WRN STEUBEN...AND ALSO FARTHER
E...GENERALLY NEAR AND E OF THE I-81 CORRIDOR. AS A RESULT...IT IS
IN THESE AREAS WHERE A WW ADVSY WAS ISSUED...RUNNING FROM 12Z SUN-
12Z MON. ALTHOUGH UPR JET FORCING/DEEP ASCENT SEEMS MAXIMIZED SUN
EVE...QUICK SYSTEM MOVEMENT SHOULD CAP AMTS WITHIN THE ADVSY
RANGE (GENERALLY 3-6" TOTALS EXPECTED...AT MOST).

MON...THE COMBO OF WRAP-ARND MOISTURE/LOW-LVL CAA WILL ELICIT A
LAKE RESPONSE...AND LEAD TO MORE PERSISTENT SHSN WITHIN MAINLY A
280-290 VECTOR ACRS OUR NRN ZNS. LES MECHANICS LOOK TO BREAK DOWN
BY LTR IN THE DAY/MON EVE...SO THIS SHOULD BE A MINOR EVENT...WITH
NO MORE THAN 1-3" EXPECTED ATTM.

LINGERING -SHSN/FLRYS SHOULD END MON NGT...WITH DRY WX TO START
THE DAY TUE...AS RIDGING SFC AND ALOFT BRIEFLY BUILD ACRS NY/PA.
ANY AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE CLEARING SKIES MON NGT COULD DROP BLO
ZERO...GIVEN FRESH SNOW COVER.

THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN QUICKLY FROM LTR TUE-WED. ALTHOUGH THE
STRENGTH OF THE UPR TROUGH AND ASSOCD SFC LOW DIFFER SOMEWHAT FROM
MODEL TO MODEL...THE BASIC IDEA IS THAT A MORE CONSOLIDATED SFC
LOW TRACKS NEWD FROM THE CNTRL GREAT LAKES ACRS THE ST. LAWRENCE
VLY. THIS WOULD ULTIMATELY PLACE CNY/NE PA IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR
A BRIEF TIME...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF INITIAL SNOWFALL
TRANSITIONING TO A WINTRY MIX...AND PSBLY OVER TO A PD OF RAIN IN
SOME AREAS. PTYP DETAILS WILL BE TRICKY...WITH LOW-LVL COLD AIR
LIKELY TO BE TOUGH TO DISLODGE ACRS AT LEAST ERN SXNS OF THE FA.
THUS...FINE-TUNING ON THIS ASPECT WILL NO DOUBT BE NEEDED OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS...STAY TUNED.

THE OTHER CONSIDERATION IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SUFFICIENTLY WARM
TEMPS/DEW PTS TO INITIATE MELTING OF THE SNOWPACK IN AT LEAST PTNS
OF THE CWA. AT THIS EARLY JUNCTURE...IT APPEARS THAT TEMPS MAY NOT
WARM ADEQUATELY...OR FOR LONG ENUF...TO TRIGGER SIG MELTING. IT
ALSO SEEMS...FROM THIS VERY EARLY VANTAGE PT...THAT QUICK SYSTEM
MOVEMENT COULD LIMIT OVERALL PCPN/RAINFALL AMTS. ONCE AGN...WE`LL
BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS SITN IN THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
400 PM EST UPDATE...
CLOSELY FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE...

THE SECOND STORM SYSTEM THAT IS MENTIONED ABOVE IN THE NEAR TERM
PORTION OF THE AFD WILL BE PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST THURSDAY BY THURS
MORNING. SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW MAY DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW YORK LATE THURS NIGHT. THESE
SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LARGE ACCUMULATIONS AS MOISTURE
BEHIND THE SECOND SECOND SYSTEM WILL BE LIMITED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD BACK TO THE CWA ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN QUIET
WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPS DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUE TO LOOK WELL BELOW THE
SEASONAL NORM... THIS WILL CONTINUE THE COLD TREND INTO MARCH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHILE SKC NOW FOR MOST OF THE TERMINALS, LIGHT SNOW, LOWER VSBYS
AND CIGS ARE RIGHT AROUND THE CORNER.

LIGHT SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD KITH/KELM/KBGM BETWEEN 09Z WITH MVFR
CIGS AND IFR VSBYS. IFR VSBYS AND MVFR CIGS WILL ARRIVE LATER AT
KSYR/KRME/KAVP, GENERALLY IN THE 13Z TO 17Z PERIOD.

AFTER A BRIEF LULL OR DECREASE IN INTENSITY WHERE WE MAY BRIEFLY
GO BACK TO VFR, SNOW WILL AGAIN INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH THE LOWEST RESTRICTIONS OCCURRING FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
THIS EVENING. ALT MINS ARE LIKELY.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK AND INCREASE TO 7 TO 12 KNOTS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.

.OUTLOOK...


EARLY MON...MVFR/IFR IN LIGHT SNOW.

LATE MON-EARLY TUE...MAINLY VFR.

LATE TUE-WED...RESTRICTIONS FROM -SN TO START LATE TUE...THEN A
WINTRY MIX TUE NGT TO RAIN WED.

THURS...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
     MONDAY FOR NYZ009-022-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KAH/MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...KAH
AVIATION...HEDEN





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