Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 140152
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
952 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGGING INTO THE GREAT LAKES WILL BRING PERIODS
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH DRIER
WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED TO REMOVE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AS EARLIER SVR
THUNDERSTORM ACVTY HAS STRATIFORMED OUT. HAVE UPDATED POPS...TEMPS
AND WINDS TO REFLECT LATEST CONDITIONS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION STILL
APPLIES AND IS BELOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL WAVE SEEN WELL ON THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY OVER EASTERN ONTARIO CONTINUES TO PRESS EAST AS AN
UNSEASONABLE UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPS SEWRD TWD THE GREAT LAKES. THE
HGHT FALLS WITH THIS DEEPENING UPPR WAVE AND ENTIRE ANOMALOUS
UPPER LEVEL LOW PATTERN WAS SUPPORTG A STRG MID TO UPPER LEVEL JET
THAT WAS PUSHING EWRD INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY. THIS HAS
INCREASED THE BULK WIND SHEAR BETWEEN 0 AND 6 KM ABV 30 KNOTS.
THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE WAS ASSCTD WITH A STRG BELT OF SWRLY FLOW
AT AROUND 1 KM TOPPING 30 KNOTS...AGAIN INCREASING LL WIND SHEAR
TO BTWN 25 AND 30 KNOTS. MEANWHILE...THE LL/S WERE STILL MOIST
WITH DWPTS IN THE LOWER 70S AND WITH INSOLATION EAELIER
TODAY...CAPES ROSE TO BETWEEN 1500 AND 2000 J/KG OR SO. THIS HAS
SET THE STAGE FOR A COMPLEX OF STRG TO SVR TSTMS THAT WAS
PRESENTLY ACROSS ERN NY TO SC NY AND CNTRL PA. WITH SUCH STRG LL
WIND SHEAR WE HAVE SEEN SOME HP-LIKE SUPERCELLUAR STRUCTURES
EMBEDDED IN THIS LINE AND WE HAVE RECEIVED PHOTOS OF FUNNELS AND A
REPORT OF SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE IN SCHULYER COUNTY. MORE DAMAGE
LIKELY WILL COME IN. SVR WATCH CONTINUES. WILL CONTINUE CLEAR
COUNTIES ON THE NW EDGE AS THE STORMS PASS TO THE SE. BELIEVE
STORMS WILL BE S AND E OF NE PA BY LATE EVENING.

AFTER THE STORMS PASS...THE LL/S REMAIN VERY MOIST AS THE SFC
BNDRY IS NOT PROJECTED TO PUSH THAT FAR SOUTHWARD. IT SHUD REACH NRN
NY STATE BTWN 9 AND 12Z. THINK SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR. WILL BE ADDING TO GRIDS SOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...BOUNDARY WHICH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH AREA WILL
REMAIN OVER EASTERN PA AND BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS FOR
MUCH OF CENTRAL NY BUT LIKELY FOR NE PA, SRN CATSKILLS AND LOCAL
BGM AREA. BASED ON SVR WX INDICES A FEW STORMS COULD APPROACH SVR
LIMITS ALTHOUGH THE MAIN THREAT MAY BE HEAVY RAIN AS CONVECTION
PERSIST OVER NE PA AND AIRMASS REMAIN VERY MOIST WITH PWATS AROUND
2 INCHES.

MONDAY NIGHT...ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING AS
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVES INITIAL BOUNDARY THROUGH AND
MAIN SFC COLD FRONT APPROACHES REGION. WILL CONTINUE WITH CHC POPS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

TUESDAY...DEEP H5 TROF MOVES INTO NEARBY SOUTHERN ONTARIO AS SFC
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FA FROM I81 WEST DURING THE MORNING HOURS
AND POINTS EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY LOOKS FAIRLY
WEAK EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SE FA WHERE MODELS SUGGEST SEVERAL HUNDRED
J/KG. WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHC POPS THROUGH PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROF SETTLES OVER THE
NORTHEAST AS SFC HIGH PRES GRADUALLY BUILDS SOUTH FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. AFTER SOME LINGERING SHOWERS FOR THE ERN CWA TUE
EVENING PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS ON WED
WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NOON UPDATE...
THE BIG STORY DURING THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROF OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US WITH COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPS, AND A POSSIBLE RETURN TO UNSETTLED WEATHER BY THE WEEKEND.

MAINLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.
DURING THIS PERIOD A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH IN THE MEAN FLOW
DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. I CONTINUED A DRY FORECAST BUT A POP UP
SHOWER CAN`T BE RULED OUT THIS DAY AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES
THROUGH. WITH THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROF STILL OVER CENTRAL
TX, WE AREN`T QUITE OUT OF THE WOODS FOR MORE PRECIPITATION AS WE
HEAD TOWARD THE WEEKEND. AS THIS TROF MOVES EAST OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US, A DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND TRANSPORT
MOISTURE UP THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE TIMING AND HOW FAR NORTH THE
MOISTURE GETS IS STILL VERY MUCH IN QUESTION. THE OLDER RUNS OF THE
GFS ARE ABOUT 24 HOURS FASTER THAN THE EURO, BRINGING IN SHOWERS
BY FRIDAY EVENING WITH THE EURO NOT UNTIL SATURDAY EVENING.
WHATEVER THE CASE IT DOES APPEAR CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR SHOWERS
OVER THE WEEKEND ITSELF. ON THE FRONT END I PUT IN JUST A 20%
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN NEPA FRIDAY BUT SAVE HIGHER CHANCES FOR SAT/SUN.
IF THE PATTERN HOLDS CHANCES FOR RAIN MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED THIS
WEEKEND BUT STILL WAY TOO FAR AND UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN THAT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HAVE TEMPO TSRA 00-02Z ONLY AT KAVP AS STORMS WILL HAVE EXITED
REST OF KBGM TAF SITES BY 00Z. THEN SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR.
WITH LATEST ROUND OF RAINFALL AND HIGH DEWPOINTS I HAVE IFR TO
VLIFR ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KSYR AND KAVP WHERE I HAVE MVFR.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MEDIUM KRME AND KITH FOR IFR...AND HIGH KELM AND
KBGM. TIMING...8-12Z KBGM... KITH AND KRME. HAVE KELM IFR 6-14Z
AND VLIFR 9-13Z. AFTER FOG LIFTS BY 13-14Z...I SEE VFR CUMULUS LAYER
AND ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA FORMING IN THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY THE
SERN PTN OF OUR FORECAST AREA. SO I HAVE PROB30 GROUPS FOR 20-24Z
KBGM AND KAVP FOR MVFR TSRA. REST NO MENTION YET OF THUNDER.

WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT WRLY THRU THE PD.

OUTLOOK...

MON NGT THROUGH TUE NGT...POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS FROM SHRA/TSRA.

WED/THUR/FRI...PRIMARILY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...DJN
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...HEDEN
AVIATION...DJN





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