Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KBGM 220949
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
449 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARMER AIR ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING LIGHT RAIN TO THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND WESTERN CATSKILLS
SOME FREEZING RAIN MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. A MILD AND
BREEZY DAY ON SUNDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MUCH WARMER WEATHER AND A
PERIOD OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 445 AM...SKIES WERE CLEAR EXCEPT FOR SOME RESIDUAL LAKE CLOUDS
OVER THE NRN CWA. TEMPS WERE QUITE COLD GENERALLY IN THE TEENS BUT
IN THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE LAKE PLAIN.

SFC HIGH PRES OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITES STATES WILL PRODUCE A
S/SW FLOW OF MILDER AIR. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY ENTERING THE
OHIO VALLEY WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THIS FEATURE ALONG SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING THE
REGION A LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVENT STARTING MID AFTERNOON OVER THE
CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGION AND SPREAD TO THE
WESTERN CATSKILLS BY SUNSET. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE OVER
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. FOR P-TYPE, MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MAINLY
RAIN AS LOW LEVELS 900-800MB WARM QUICKLY TO 3C OR ABOVE AND SFC
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING. THE ONLY AREA OF CONCERN IS
NRN ONEIDA COUNTY WHERE SOUNDINGS SHOW A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE OVERNIGHT WARMING CHANGES PRECIP
TO PLAIN RAIN. FOR THIS REASON ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
FOR NRN ONEIDA COUNTY FROM 4PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4AM SUNDAY. THERE
COULD ALSO BE SPOTTY FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE NORMALLY COOLER AREAS
OF THE WESTERN CATSKILLS AND POCONOS. THERE MAY BE VERY LITTLE PRECIP
HERE SO WILL JUST CONTINUE MENTION IN HWO WITHOUT ANY FLAGS.

SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAXES RANGING FROM
THE MID 30S TO AROUND 40. THE WARMEST READING WILL BE OVER THE
WESTERN CWA. TONIGHT TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WARM UNDER
SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SUNDAY...AFTER A FEW LINGERING MORNING RAIN SHOWERS THE REST OF
THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH A CONTINUED MILD SOUTHERLY FLOW. THERE
MAY BE SOME SUNNY BREAKS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH MAX TEMPS IN
THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...LONG WAVE TROF WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO THE MID WEST WHILE A STRONG SHORT WAVE
CURRENTLY OVER NRN MEXICO WILL TRACK ALONG THE GULF STATES THEN
LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH SFC LOW
WELL TO OUR WEST AND ABOVE MENTIONED SHORT WAVE WILL BRING A SLUG
OF RAINFALL TO THE REGION LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THE AREA WILL GENERALLY RECEIVE A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAINFALL
WITH THE FAR SE CLOSE TO AN INCH. THIS WILL NOT CAUSE ANY HYDRO
ISSUES. BY MIDDAY MONDAY AREA WILL BE WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR
WILL PRIMARILY DRY, BREEZY AND MILD CONDITIONS. MAXES WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60S.

MONDAY NIGHT...AS SFC LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN CANADA SFC
OCCLUSION WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
POSSIBLY ENDING AS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS BUT BULK OF PRECIP WILL PASS
BEFORE ATMOSPHERE CAN SUPPORT SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
325 AM UPDATE...
A WESTWARD SHIFT IS NOTED IN TRACK FOR THE WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SYSTEM. 18Z AND 00Z GFS...WHILE FARTHER WEST COMPARED TO PRIOR
RUNS...ARE STILL OUT TO SEA WITH SURFACE LOW YET BRING BACK EDGE
OF PRECIP SHIELD VERY NEAR POCONOS-CATSKILLS...AND GFS ENSEMBLES
BEGIN TO EXHIBIT A LOT OF SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS DURING THIS PERIOD.
ECMWF SURFACE LOW IS MUCH DEEPER AND HUGS CLOSE TO THE
COAST...WITH WINTRY BACK EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD COMFORTABLY OVER
THE AREA /WELL INLAND/. GEM MEANWHILE REMAINS FAR OUT TO SEA.
ENOUGH CONCERN WITH THE TREND TO GO AHEAD AND EXPAND A 25-35 PCT
CHANCE OF SNOW OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW GENERALLY EAST OF I-81 WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE HIGH VOLUME HOLIDAY TRAVEL TIME
THIS BEARS WATCHING...BUT MUCH REMAINS TO BE DETERMINED. THE
SYSTEM COULD EASILY TREND WEAKER AND FARTHER OUT TO SEA /NO
IMPACT/...SUCH AS THE CANADIAN GEM AND TO LESSER DEGREE THE GFS
CURRENTLY DEPICT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROF SETTING UP OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THIS WILL SET THE AREA BACK INTO
NEAR...TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED
WEATHER. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON PERIODS OF MINOR LAKE EFFECT
BANDS OFF ONTARIO...AND THEN A COASTAL LOW (OR TWO?) FLIRTING WITH
PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA FROM WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY. THE GFS
SUGGESTS DEVELOPMENT OUT TO SEA...WHILE THE ECMWF INDICATES A
CLOSER TO THE COAST TRACK WITH A PRIMARY LOW. THE 12Z RUN HAS
LIMITED IT`S WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD FROM
PREVIOUS RUNS...SO THE TREND IS GOING TOWARD THE GFS FISH STORM.
AT THIS TIME...HAVE LEFT LOW CHANCE PRECIP PROBABILITIES ACROSS
OUR SE ZONES FROM WED-THURS. THE ECMWF AND GFS AGREE ON A CLOSED
UPPER LOW NEAR THE DELMARVA ON FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE SFC SOLUTIONS
ARE IN COMPLETE DISAGREEMENT. THIS LATER SYSTEM MAY STILL BE TOO
FAR EAST BEFORE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT TO AFFECT CNY/NEPA TAKES
PLACE. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE POST HOLIDAY TRAVEL
FORECAST...SO WE WILL BE IN WAIT AND SEE MODE FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
06Z UPDATE...
NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING WORSE THAN HIGHER END MVFR CONDITIONS THIS
TAF PERIOD...AS VERY DRY LOWER ATMOSPHERE ONLY BEGRUDGINGLY YIELDS TO
WEAK WAVE PASSING ALOFT /ALL VFR KAVP WHERE DRY AIR WINS/. ONE
POSITIVE DEVELOPMENT...IS INCREASED CONFIDENCE THAT ALL
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIQUID DUE TO THICK ABOVE FREEZING LAYER OF
AIR IN LOWEST SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET AS THE SCATTERED PRECIPITATION
MOVES IN...WHICH WILL MELT ANY POTENTIAL FLAKES ON THE WAY DOWN.
SLEET PRODUCTION ALSO APPEARING UNLIKELY AND SO WAS ABLE TO REMOVE
ASSOCIATED PROB30 GROUPS FROM THE TAFS THAT HAD THEM. ONLY SLIGHT
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IS KRME ON IF SURFACE TEMPERATURE WILL BE NEAR
FREEZING...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT BRIEF -FZRA...BUT EVEN HERE
INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN ONLY -RA FOR PRECIP TYPE.

FOR REMAINDER OF OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY CLEAR WITH VARIABLE OR
LIGHT WSW WIND...EXCEPT FOR SOME LEFTOVER LAKE CLOUDS PASSING FROM
KITH TO KSYR-KRME AROUND 4-4.5 KFT AGL. DURING
MORNING...INCREASING CLOUDS 10-15 KFT AGL AND WSW WINDS 7-10 KTS
/ESE FOR KRME/. IN AFTERNOON...DECK LOWERS TO LOW END VFR...WITH
SCT -SHRA BRINGING CIG INTERMITTENTLY INTO HIGH END MVFR FOR
SEVERAL TERMINALS MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...KAVP LIKELY STAYING DRY.
WSW WINDS ALSO PICKING UP INTO LOWER TEENS EXCEPT FOR LOCALIZED
VALLEY WIND PERSISTING ESE FOR KRME. THEN THIS
EVENING...PREDOMINANT HIGH END MVFR CIG KRME- KITH- KBGM /LOW END
VFR KELM-KSYR/ ALONG WITH VERY LIGHT -SHRA. ONLY LOW CHANCE OF
-SHRA AT BEST FOR KAVP. ONE NOTE OF UNCERTAINTY...PERSISTENT
LOCALIZED ESE VALLEY WIND AT KRME...VERSUS INCREASING SW WIND 2
KFT AGL...COULD POSE MARGINAL LLWS CONDITIONS LATER TODAY-EARLY
EVENING FOR KRME. NOT IN TAF YET BUT WILL ASSESS FURTHER AND AMEND
INTO A LATER TAF IF NECESSARY.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NGT INTO EARLY SUN MRNG...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN LINGERING
-RA MAINLY NORTHERN TERMINALS KSYR-KRME.

LATE SUN MRNG THROUGH SUN EVE...VFR.

LATE SUN NGT AND MON...RESTRICTIONS IN LIKELY RAIN/POSSIBLE FOG.

TUE THROUGH WED...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM EST
     SUNDAY FOR NYZ009.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...JAB/MDP
AVIATION...MDP





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.