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000
FXUS61 KBGM 182239
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
639 PM EDT Thu Apr 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Drier yet cloudy tonight into Friday morning before another
cold front ushers in more showers Friday afternoon and night. We
turn breezy and cooler for the weekend with some rain or even
snow showers possible on Saturday. A dry stretch finally ensues
Sunday through Tuesday with cool temperatures trending milder
through the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Early this evening we are watching some drizzle move through the
region. So expanded the coverage of drizzle with this update. A
general dreary night is still expected. Previous discussion
below.


Our warm front remains straddled near I-81 and clouds have
broken for some sun over the Finger Lakes and western areas of
the Southern Tier which have entered into the warm sector.
Temperatures have responded nicely to the warmer air mass
rising into the upper 50s to even low 60s. However, areas in
the Catskills, NE PA, and Mohawk Valley, which remain on the
east side of the front, continue to be socked in clouds thanks
to high pressure building into northern New England resulting in
cold air damming. The strong low-level inversion seen the 12
UTC ALY sounding is indicative of a cold air wedged lodged near
the sfc and temperatures will continue to struggle to warm our
of 40s, especially as areas of drizzle reinforce the cool
temperatures. The NYS mesonet temperature maps highlight the
noticeably different air masses east and west of I-81 nicely.

Guidance suggests that light showers/drizzle in the Catskills
and Mohawk Valley should gradually dissipate this afternoon but
showers have developed along the stalled warm front near the
I-81 corridor as increased sun and weak instability have generated
showers near the wind shift boundary.

Otherwise, still expecting a warm spring day for the Finger
Lakes with high temperatures reaching into the mid-60s as breaks
of sun combine with a swath of mild 850hPa isotherms ranging
+6C to +6.5C noses into this region. Temperatures trend
downwards heading east with the Catskills barely reaching into
the low 50s. NE PA including the the Susquehanna River Valley
will struggle to break for sun with highs only reaching into
the upper 40s to low 50s. The surrounding higher terrain in NE
PA will coolest where overcast skies prevent much warmer beyond
the mid-40s.

Heading into tonight, any partial clearing early on will quickly
fade behind cloudy skies as Canadian high pressure continues to
build into northern New England. Despite the increased low-level
moisture, guidance maintains a mainly dry forecast tonight as
our washed-out warm front lifts eastward and upper level ridging
and mid-level dry air build into further into the Northeast.
However, some pockets of drizzle may linger, especially in NE
PA and the Catskills, at least through Midnight as low-level
southeast flow upslopes the terrain. Otherwise, we will not see
a large diurnal change tonight given clouds. Overnight
temperatures only cooling into the mid to upper 30s in the
Catskills, Mohawk Valley and NE PA with low to mid 40s in the
Southern Tier, Fingers Lakes, and towards Syracuse.

Cloudy skies continue tomorrow with temperatures turning milder
in comparison to today with much of the region warming into the
50s to low 60s as shortwave ridging continues overhead. Upstream
we have a closed upper level low positioned north of the Great
Lakes with its associated occluded sfc low near the Hudson Bay.
An attendant cold front will be tracking eastward from the Ohio
Valley into the Northeast. A few weak shortwave embedded in the
southwest flow aloft look to allow a secondary sfc low to
develop along the thermal/moisture gradient as the front
reaches west/central NY. Overall moisture is not very impressive
but with the secondary sfc low will likely provide additional
forcing for showers to continue and spread into the Twin Tiers,
the Finger Lakes eastwards towards the Catskills, NE PA, and
the Mohawk Valley. Best chance for showers looks to be tomorrow
afternoon into tomorrow evening and have maintained widespread
chance POPs with even likely POPs west of I-81 by 18 - 21 UTC.
Overall QPF is light with around a tenth expected. Higher
amounts ranging 0.25 - 0.40 inches expected in Oneida County
where some lake enhanced moisture can contribute to increased
QPF.

The boundary looks to weaken as it reaches the Catskills Fri
night with the thermal and moisture gradient becoming less
defined. The boundary may slow down overnight so have
maintained slight chance and low end chance POPs east of the
Susquehanna River into the southeast Catskills. Otherwise,
clearing should ensue behind the front as westerly flow ushers
in a drier air mass. Overnight lows turn cooler dropping into
the mid to upper 30s with low 40s in valley areas thanks to some
radiational cooling. Winds become a bit elevated behind the
front becoming sustained 5 - 12kts overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Expect a chilly weekend as our large scale upper level closed
low tracks towards the Hudson Bay with associated secondary
shortwaves dig into the Northeast. For Saturday, weak high
pressure in the morning will exit to the east as a secondary
cold front will be on the approach for the afternoon thanks to
a more potent shortwave trough tracking through Ontario into the
Northeast. There is some mid-level moisture with the front and
combined with additional lake moisture, a few afternoon rain
showers are possible and we maintained slight chance POPS to low
end chance POPs. We placed the highest POPs near and north of
the NY Thruway into the southern Tug Hill and for the northern
Fingers Lakes given closer proximity to Lake Ontario. Best chance
for showers will be in the afternoon as the front pushes through
the region from northwest to southeast. After temperatures rise
into the upper 40s to low-mid 50s by early to mid-afternoon, west
to northwest winds turn gusty in the wake of the front reaching
up to 20-25kts with temperatures cooling into the 40s by sunset.
Deterministic guidance is not too enthused with QPF generally
under a tenth of inch given the incoming front should just
generate isolated to scattered showers with some locally higher
amounts from lake enhancements possible. The 500hPa cool pool
associated with the incoming shortwave is rather impressive
nearing -25C to -30C so would not be surprised if some sleet or
graupel is mixed in the rain showers, especially late afternoon
as temperatures cool into the 40s.

Clearing skies continues Saturday night with westerly winds
staying a bit breezy overnight as large scale highs pressure
centered in the Central Plains will builds eastward. It will be
a chilly night with temperatures cooling into the low to mid 30s
thanks to some radiational cooling.

We close out the weekend with high pressure maintaining mainly
sunny skies and seasonably cool temperatures for Sunday as
northwest flow continues aloft. High temperatures will stay cool
given ongoing cold air advection only warming into the low to
mid 50s...cooler in the upper 40s in the Catskills. Westerly
winds will stay breezy as yet another shortwave and reinforcing
cold front track through Ontario into northern New England. The
winds will make it feel a bit cooler despite the sunshine as
deep boundary layer mixing support gusts up to 20-25kts once
again. Winds gradually weaken overnight but stay a bit elevated.
Overnight lows drop into the low to mid 30s under clear skies.
Leaned on the cooler end of guidance for Sunday night lows
given the more favorable raditional cooling conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Sunshine and pleasant spring temperatures are in store for
Monday as large scale high pressure stays in control. West to
northwest winds remain a bit breezy for the first half of the
day but trend downwards during the afternoon as high pressure
shifts into New England. As some weak return southwest flow
ensues, high temperatures should trend warmer compared to the
previous few days with highs reaching into the mid to upper 50s
with even low 60s in NE PA and valley areas within the Twin
Tiers.

Pleasant and even milder weather ensues for Tuesday as southwest
return flow ushers in an even milder air mass with temperatures
trending into the upper 50s with more of the region reaching
into the low to even mid-60s.

Another cold front looks to impact the region Tuesday night into
Wednesday with chances for rain returning. Still uncertainty on
the exact timing of the front and moisture fields but
maintained widespread chance and even likely POPs given good run
to run consistency on this system occurring and decent moisture
fields and thermal gradient along the boundary. The parent
shortwave is rather potent and guidance shows it taking on a
negative tilt as it tracks into Ontartio but there remains
discrepancies on its exact track. Despite the strong forcing,
this system looks fast moving and progressive so any hydro
issues appear unlikely. Drier and cooler conditions return for
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Showers continue to crawl across the region this afternoon in
response to low pressure encroaching upon the region from the west.
MVFR to IFR conditions prevail across the TAF sites as a result with
low clouds socked in across the region.

Throughout the rest of the afternoon and into this evening, showers
will gradually decrease, becoming scattered to spotty in nature.
However, MVFR to IFR ceilings will persist at all terminals with the
exception of KSYR through the remainder of the 18z TAF cycle. KSYR
should, based on latest guidance, trend towards VFR ceilings by the
last 8-10 hours of the 18z TAF period.

Showers crossing through terminal domains throughout the morning and
early afternoon thus far have dropped visibility into the MVFR to
IFR thresholds. However, as showers become lighter and more
scattered throughout the afternoon and evening, VFR visibility
should be maintained even with passing precipitation. Of course,
MVFR visibility can`t be ruled out with embedded, heavier showers
but since this would be a fairly localized, low probability, kept
this out of the TAFs at this time.

Winds throughout the 18z TAF period will be light and variable to
start, becoming breezy out of the southeast by the end of the
period. Sustained speeds this afternoon and tonight will range from
2-5 kt, increasing to 10-12 kt by tomorrow morning with gusts up to
about 19-21 kt.

Outlook...

Friday...Lingering restrictions in the morning; perhaps a brief
VFR window, then more restrictions as rain showers arrive in
the afternoon and evening.

Saturday...Mainly VFR expected. Occasional MVFR CIGs possible
for CNY terminals in the afternoon.

Sunday...VFR expected.

Monday...VFR expected.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJM/TAC
NEAR TERM...MWG/WFO ALY
SHORT TERM...JTC/WFO ALY
LONG TERM...JTC/WFO ALY
AVIATION...MJM/ WFO ALY