Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 311144
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
644 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE REGION THIS MORNING,
WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW PERSISTING DOWNWIND FROM THE FINGER
LAKES, AND BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS AREA WIDE. AN APPROACHING
WINTER STORM COULD BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA BY LATE SUNDAY, WITH
ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE. THE STORM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

LAKE EFFECT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE CWA. A COLD 330 FLOW HAS
CREATED MULTIPLE BANDS OF LAKE SNOW OFF THE FINGER LAKES.
INTENSITY DECREASED AND LET THE ADVISORY EXPIRE. TODAY THE FLOW
WILL BACK TO WNW. WITH THE WEAKENING WIND AND THE WIND SHIFT LAKE
EFFECT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY AND SHIFT NORTH. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS MOSTLY UNDER AN INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER FROM
THE SINGLE DIGITS NOW INTO MOSTLY THE TEENS. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL LITTLE TONIGHT WITH CLOUDS COMING IN AND WINDS SHIFTING TO
SW.

A WEAK SFC TROF WILL COME THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY LIGHT
SNOW AND FLURRIES MOSTLY IN CENTRAL NY. THIS MOISTENING WILL HELP
WITH THE APPROACHING STORM SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
3 AM UPDATE...

A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO
THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. GOOD DYNAMICS WITH IT DUE TO A SHORT
WAVE... TROF AND COUPLED JET. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT. THIS WILL BE LIFTED UP AND NORTH INTO
THE AREA MIDDAY SUNDAY INTO THE SW COUNTIES. BY EVENING IT SHOULD
BE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. WITH THE STORM TRACKING WEST TO EAST
THERE WILL BE A SNOW GRADIENT ON THE NRN FRINGES WHICH WILL BE IN
THE FAR NORTH. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON GENERAL SCENARIO...
QPF... AND WHERE THE SNOW GRADIENT WILL BE. WPC FORECAST CLOSE TO
OWN WITH A DECENT POTENTIAL OF 7 OR MORE INCHES ACROSS ALL OF NE
PA AND MOST OF CENTRAL NY. FOR THESE REASONS WENT WITH A WINTER
STORM WATCH FOR ENTIRE CWA EXCEPT NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY IN NY.
TIMING SUNDAY AFTN TO MONDAY AFTN. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE LATE
SUN NGT AND MON MORN AS THE LOW PASSES TO THE SOUTH. THE SNOW WILL
PULL OUT MONDAY AFTN BUT LINGER IN NY WHERE A NW FLOW WILL BRING
IN LAKE MOISTURE. SNOW TO WATER RATIOS SHOULD BE HIGH WITH A DEEP
DENDRITE ZONE AND GOOD LIFT. QPF OF HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH WITH
SNOWFALL OF MOSTLY 6 TO 12 INCHES.

MONDAY NIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE AFTER SETTING UP
DURING THE AFTN. WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE DEEP MOISTURE AND MORE
ARCTIC AIR RETURNING LAKE EFFECT WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH IN
INTENSITY. ATTM DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A BIG LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIOD WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROF
ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT, WILL BE
PRIMARILY DRY AND COLD AS HIGH PRES MOVES FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, SFC LOW PRES
WILL TRACK THROUGH THE WESTERN LAKES AND INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC. THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
HIGHS ON WED WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S BEFORE
ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO THE REGION FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS PERIOD DUE TO
FROPA AND COLD NORTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY. FRIDAY WILL BE DRY AS
SFC HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE NORTHEAST. TEMPS THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND RESULTING LAKE CLOUDS WILL KEEP MVFR CIGS
ACROSS THE TERMINALS FOR MUCH OF TODAY. AT KELM/KAVP, CIGS WILL
MOST LIKELY BECOME LOW VFR BY MIDDAY. AT KITH, SNOW SHOWERS OFF
CAYUGA WILL BRING OCCASIONAL IFR SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH MID/LATE
MORNING. THIS EVENING CIGS WILL BE PRIMARILY LOW VFR BEFORE A SFC
TROF APPROACHES THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES AND
MVFR CIGS.

NORTHWEST WINDS 8-12 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS GRADUALLY
DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS EVENING
BECOMING NORTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK.

OUTLOOK...

SUN...MVFR RESTRICTIONS LIKELY FOR CIGS.

SUN NGT / MON... RESTRICTIONS LIKELY (MVFR/IFR) IN SNOW.

TUE...VFR.

WED...POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS DUE TO SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NYZ015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-
     062.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NYZ009-
     015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...RRM
AVIATION...RRM





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