Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 090540
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1240 AM EST Fri Dec 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Lake snow showers will move across central NY late this afternoon,
before a stronger band develops to the north tonight. Cold
temperatures and lake snows will continue into early Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
315 pm update... Things are evolving as expected late this
afternoon, with healthy lake-effect bands off both Erie and
Ontario.

First, we`ll deal with the Lake Erie band. Radar trends and the
latest high-resolution model output support a well formed band
paralleling the I-86/Route 17 and I-88 corridors through 7-8 pm.
Although the band itself should be dropping slowly southward with
time, we think it will have enough intensity/residence time in
most areas for a quick coating-2" of snow. Localized 3-4" amounts
are not out of the question. Driving will become locally
hazardous. As the mixed-layer flow veers into a WNW heading after
8-10 pm, the Lake Erie band should weaken over the twin tiers, as
it contracts closer to the shoreline in western NY.

As for the Lake Ontario band, it should remain fairly intense
(long fetch across Lake Ontario plus some upstream enhancement
from southern Lake Huron) through the first half of tonight, as
it slowly drops down into/through northern Oneida. We think hourly
snowfall rates of 1-2" are likely, with easily 6-12" in the more
persistent bands by the pre-dawn hours Friday.

It still appears that a secondary low-level trough will sweep
southeastward through the forecast area towards daybreak. As this
occurs, a sharp veering of the winds to NW (300-320) should cause
multi-bands off Lake Ontario to develop, and then shift southward
towards the Thruway Corridor, as well as Cortland, Chenango, and
Otsego counties. Thus, it still appears reasonable to let the
northern Oneida Warning expire by 7 am Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
330 pm update... Current indications are that a steady-state
300-310 flow will lead to persistent multi-bands throughout our
advisory area (southern Oneida, Madison, Onondaga, Cortland,
Chenango and Otsego counties) during the day Friday. Intensity,
though, may be highly variable during the day, as low-level
instability could translate into cellular type/less organized
activity for a time. Outside of the main Lake Ontario bands, it
will be blustery, with a few flurries and lighter snow showers.

Friday night, there are hints in the model data that a Georgian
Bay connection may become established, leading to possible
intensification and consolidation of a primary Lake Ontario band
for a while through southern Cayuga, southern Onondaga, and
southern Madison counties. Again elsewhere, flurries and lighter
snow showers are foreseen.

On Saturday, the low-level flow should begin backing, with the
bands shifting back northward and gradually weakening during the
course of the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
125 PM update...
The eastern trough will become more amplified during the long term
period as multiple waves carve out the base and drop it into the
Ohio Valley.

A storm will develop and slide up the Ohio Valley Sunday into
Monday, though this storm appears weaker and a little slower than
previously forecast. Temperatures with this system appear cold
enough to support snow for the duration, with the exception of
Monday afternoon, when rain showers may mix with the snow.

The trough dives into Ontario Province early Wednesday. Much
colder air will descend upon NY and PA for mid week, although the
very cold Arctic air slides eastward into Quebec and never gives
us a direct shot.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An intense band of lake effect snow will impact the KRME/KSYR
terminals briefly this morning between 06Z-08Z with conditions
near airport minimums. The band will drop south of the terminals
by 08Z with MVFR conditions expected through mid mornirng then low
VFR for the rest of the TAF period. At KITH/KBGM, MVFR conditions
will perists through mid afternoon due to ceilings with MVFR snow
showers likely between 09Z-15Z. At KELM/KAVP, a period of MVFR
ceilings and flurries will occur between 09Z-12Z at KELM and
between 12Z-15Z at KAVP. Otherwise the conditions will be low VFR
in strato cumulus.

Strong westerly winds at 10-15 knots with gusts to 25 knots will
shift to the northwest as a surface trough drops through the
region early this morning.

OUTLOOK...
Saturday...Occasional IFR or worse conditions will remain at play
for KSYR and KRME in lake-effect snow, with lingering restrictions
more transient at KITH, KELM, and KBGM. KAVP should stay primarily
VFR.

Sunday through Monday...Widespread restrictions likely developing
in light snow, a wintry mix, or light rain, depending on the time
and location.

Tuesday...Restrictions still possible in lingering lower ceilings
and snow showers, especially our central NY terminals.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Lake Effect Snow Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for NYZ017-
     018-036-037-044>046.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for
     NYZ009.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...RRM


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