Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KBGM 301619
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1219 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY WILL BE DRY, WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES, THANKS TO
HIGH PRESSURE, EXTENDING SOUTHWARD OUT OF CANADA. STARTING
TONIGHT, HOWEVER, THIS FAIR WEATHER SYSTEM, WILL GIVE WAY TO
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM, APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. AS A RESULT,
RAIN IS EXPECTED MUCH OF THE TIME, FROM SUNDAY RIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1218 PM UPDATE...
BESIDES A MINOR TEMPERATURE UPDATE, THE MAIN CHANGE FOR TODAY WAS
TO THE SKY COVER GRID. CLEARING FROM THE EAST AND NORTH IS
BATTLING AGAINST DESTRUCTIVE CUMULUS FORMATION, KEEPING SKIES
HIGHLY CHANGEABLE THIS AFTERNOON.

330 AM UPDATE...
ALTHOUGH THE RAIN HAS DEPARTED WELL TO OUR EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING, PLENTY OF LOWER CLOUDS REMAIN, ALONG WITH SOME HIGHER
ELEVATION FOG.

THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 8-9 AM, BUT CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO HAVE
THE UPPER HAND TODAY. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE OVER NY`S
SOUTHERN TIER AND NORTHEAST PA, WITH THE STRENGTHENING SUN ANGLE
PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CLEARING, GIVEN THE DEGREE
OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH AN INVERSION, AND ALSO WEAK FLOW.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY BREAKS OF SUNSHINE WILL BE UP OVER OUR
LAKE PLAIN COUNTIES.

WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES, HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO
AVERAGE SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THE END OF APRIL, RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S-LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
345 AM UPDATE...
MORE WET WEATHER APPEARS TO BE IN STORE FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD.

SURFACE RIDGING, ALONG WITH SHORT-WAVE RIDGING AT MID-LEVELS, WILL
QUICKLY SCOOT EASTWARD TONIGHT, ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT
TO MOVE BACK INTO NY AND PA. THE MAIN CULPRIT WILL BE A MID-LEVEL
SHORT-WAVE, OVER WEST TX AT THIS TIME, ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW COMING EASTWARD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH THE
JUST MENTIONED SHORT-WAVE IS LIKELY TO SHEAR OUT, AS IT MOVES
INTO AN INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER OUR REGION, THERE
CERTAINLY APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT FOR PERIODS OF STEADY RAIN, BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT, THEN
LIKELY LASTING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. GIVEN
THICK CLOUD COVER, PRECIPITATION, AND A COOL EASTERLY FLOW SUNDAY,
HIGHS WILL BE NO BETTER THAN THE 50S, WITH SOME OF OUR HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS LIKELY NOT MAKING IT OUT OF THE 40S.

SLOW IMPROVEMENT IS FORESEEN ON MONDAY, WITH ANY EARLY STEADIER
RAIN, TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH TIME. IF WE DO SEE
ANY BREAKS OF SUNSHINE, THEY WILL MOST LIKELY BE LATER IN THE DAY,
AND OVER THE FINGER LAKES REGION. HIGHS MONDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN NOT
MAKE IT PAST THE 50S.

A BRIEF RESPITE IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT, AS WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS
SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE END RESULT SHOULD BE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES,
AND LOWS IN THE 30S-LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
4 AM UPDATE...
FORECAST ADJUSTED TOWARDS LATEST MODEL BLEND...RESULTING IN
SOMEWHAT HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY-FRIDAY. CONFIDENCE
CONTINUES TO INCREASE FOR OUR REGION TO GET STUCK ON THE DAMP
COOL NORTHERN END OF A LARGE CUTOFF LOW LATE IN THE WEEK. NOT
THAT UNUSUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
PD BEGINS WITH THE FCST AREA BETWEEN SYSTEMS WITH A STACKED LOW
OVER NW QUEBEC...LOW EXITING THE NEW ENG CST...AND A BROAD FNT
STALLED OVER THE SE US WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND TROPICAL RAINS. TUE
AND WED LOOK MSTLY DRY UNDER WEAK SFC HIPRES. EVENTUALLY THE
QUEBEC LOW ROTATES A WV AND SFC FNT SE WHILE TROPICAL MOISTURE
CREEPS UP THE ATLANTIC CST. THESE SYSTEMS WILL COME TOGETHER AND
CAUSE COOL RAIN THU UNDER A DVLPG UPR LOW. RAINS SHD LINGER INTO
FRI AS THE CLSD LOW MEANDERS THRU THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. TEMPS
THRU THE PD WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE OF NRML...BUT NO EXTREMES
XPCTD. ALL IN ALL A DAMP END TO THE WEEK AFTER AN XTNDD PD OPF DRY
WX FOR APRIL.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOISTURE IS TRAPPED UNDER A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AS A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE NOSES THROUGH THE AREA. THIS WILL MAKE HIGH END
MVFR TO LOW END VFR CIGS COMMON THIS MORNING. LATE MORNING INTO
AFTERNOON...KSYR-KRME SHOULD SCATTER OUT...BUT REMAINDER OF
TERMINALS SHOULD MAINTAIN A LOW END VFR CIG. A WARM FRONT WILL
DEVELOP IN PLACE THIS EVENING. WHILE THE INITIAL 5-6 KFT AGL DECK
WILL TEND SCATTER...A HIGHER LEVEL DECK WILL QUICKLY REDEVELOP AT
AROUND 15KFT AND LOWER WITH TIME...WITH RAIN INBOUND SHORTLY AFTER
06Z SUNDAY. WITH THE MOISTENING FROM THE RAIN...MVFR CIGS WILL
RETURN FOR KBGM- KELM AND POSSIBLY OTHERS TOWARDS DAWN.

OUTLOOK...

SUN/MON...RAIN. MVFR/IFR LIKELY.

TUE...VFR.

WED...CHANCE OF -SHRA AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MLJ
NEAR TERM...DJP/MLJ
SHORT TERM...MLJ
LONG TERM...DGM/MDP
AVIATION...MDP



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.