Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 020239
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
1039 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS...MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT WILL
REMAIN RAIN-FREE BUT HUMID. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE TUESDAY ACCOMPANIED BY A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. DRY WARM WEATHER WILL FOLLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
VERY QUIET AT THIS MOMENT...BUT HAVE SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE OF
SHOWERS BY EARLY MORNING DUE TO PASSAGE OF A WEAK WAVE.
ALSO...THOUGH WE WILL HAVE INCREASING FLOW JUST ABOVE THE
SURFACE...SHALLOW PATCHY FOG STILL LOOKS LIKELY IN THE TYPICALLY
PRONE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT WITH AMOUNT OF NEAR-SURFACE MOISTURE...AND
AT LEAST SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING. DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
MAKING FOR AN UNCOMFORTABLY HUMID NIGHT FOR THOSE WITHOUT AIR
CONDITIONING.

UPDATED GRIDS TO FINESSE TIMING BASED ON LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS
FOR MAIN BATCH OF STORMS TUESDAY...ROUGHLY 2PM WNW TO 9PM ESE.
STILL CONCERNED FOR RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS
AS PRIMARY THREAT...AS ALREADY DISCUSSED BELOW. LOCAL ANALOG
PROGRAM RETURNS SEVERAL PAST CASES WITH AT LEAST SPORADIC WIND
DAMAGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING A ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THE MAIN QUESTION WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE SEVERE POTENTIAL LATE TUESDAY. THE AMOUNT OF HEATING THAT
WE WILL SEE AHEAD OF THESE STORMS IS IN QUESTION TUESDAY AS THE
DAY WILL START WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. IN
ADDITION THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS SPREADING EASTWARD OVER OUR
AREA ASSOCIATED WITH WEAKENING CONVECTION OVER THE MIDWEST.
DESPITE THESE FACTORS THE VERY WARM MOIST LOW-LEVELS WILL COMBINE
WITH MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH
TO PRODUCE MLCAPE VALUES OF AT LEAST 1000-1500 J/KG... WITH 2000
J/KG NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IF SEVERAL HOURS OF SOLAR HEATING CAN
OCCUR. WIND FIELDS AND SHEAR WILL CERTAINLY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30 TO 40 KTS EXPECTED...
HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTH. THE LATEST 4 KM NAM INDICATES THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A LINE OF STORMS BY AROUND 21Z OVER CENTRAL NY
PROGRESSING EASTWARD. BASED ON THESE FACTORS THE SPC HAS PUT OUR
AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE GIVEN THE CIRCUMSTANCES.
WILL ADD A SEVERE MENTION TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
EVERYTHING QUIETS DOWN LATER TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA.
WEDNESDAY WILL PROBABLY START WITH AREAS OF LOW CLOUD AND FOG
FOLLOWED BY PLENTY OF SUNSHINE DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEW POINTS
AND HUMIDITY WILL BE NOTICEABLY LOWER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WARM
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF
THE EAST COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY LTL CHG TO THE MED RNG FCST WHICH WILL FEATURE A WEEKEND
FROPA. MAX TEMPS AHEAD OF THE CDFNT ON FRI WILL GET WELL INTO THE
8OS...WITH HIGHS GNRLY IN THE 65-70 RNG BY SUN/MON. BAND OF
SHRA/TSRA LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE FNT ON SAT...WITH COOLER TEMPS
AND FAIR WEATHER XPCTD FOR SUN/MON.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A VERY COMPLICATED FORECAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
EXPECT FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT. AFTER
06Z A STRATUS DECK IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION WITH
HAZE. EXPECT FOR THE MOST PART TO HAVE MVFR VISBYS AND CIGS. KELM
AND KBGM MAY DEVELOP FOG TONIGHT. SLIGHTLY MORE CONFIDENT THAT KELM
WILL HAVE PROLONGED PERIODS OF IFR THAN KBGM. EXPECT THE MVFR DECK TO
LIFT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. THEN... A STRONG SYSTEM WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. EXPECT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNDER 12 KNOTS PRIOR TO THE STORMS.

OUTLOOK...

TUE NGT...RESTRICTIONS IN SCT SHRA/TSRA EARLY...THEN POTNL FOR
MVFR/IFR CIGS LATE DUE TO LOW POST-FNTL CLDS MAINLY SRN TIER OF NY.

WED-FRI...VFR...EXCEPT POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING FOG...MAINLY KELM.

SAT...MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/MSE
NEAR TERM...MDP/MSE
SHORT TERM...MSE
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...KAH





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