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000
FXUS61 KBGM 181905
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
305 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD INTO
THE AREA AND BRING DRY WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE
WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LOPRES CNTRD NEAR NYC THIS AFTN WITH A COLD FNT TRAILING BACK INTO
SRN AND CNTERL PA. THIS HAS FOCUSED SOME CONV OVER THE VERY
EXTREME PARTS OF THE FCST AREA. THERE IS LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH
PLENTY OF MID AND LL CLDS AS A RESULT OF A WV ZIPPING THRU THE UPR
TROF OVER THE NERN US. SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE AS MUCH DRIER AIR
CONTS TO ADVECT IN FROM CANADA OVRNGT. WITH LGT NE WINDS ON THE
SFC AND MUCH STRONGER FLOW JUST ABV THE BNDRY LYR...NOT A
FVRBL SET UP FOR FOG FORMATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRY PD AS A 1025MB SFC HI BLDS INTO THE AREA UNDER A NW FLOW
ALOFT. WED LOOKS DRY AND SUNNY AND WILL BE FLWD BY A CLR AND
CHILLY NGT. MEX GUID BRINGS ELOM TO 36 WITH SOME SRNDG AREAS TO
34. HWVR...WITH FULL GREENUP AND WARM GND AND WATER BELIEVE IT
WILL BE DIFFICULT TO FORM PTCHY FROST.

HI SLIDES EAST ON FRI AS A TROF NOSES INTO THE CNTRL LAKES AND
ONTARIO. ANY PCPN SHD REMAIN WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA BUT
THERE SHD BE A NOTABLE INCRS IN HI CLDS AND LL RH AS A SWLY FLOW
NEAR THE SFC DVLPS. TEMPS SHD CONT TO CLIMB AS WELL WITH MANY
AREAS IN NEPA AND THE VLYS PASSING 80F FRI AFTN.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF EXHIBIT SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE PATTERN
DURING THE WEEKEND WITH THE ECMWF A BIT SLOWER BUILDING AN UPPER
RIDGE NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. THE
ECMWF FORECAST WOULD INDICATE NW FLOW AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ON THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE RIDGE... WHILE THE GFS SHOWS STRONGER
RIDGING AND A DRYER... WARMER PATTERN. HAVE LEANED SLIGHTLY TOWARD
THE ECMWF WITH THIS FORECAST WHICH ALSO MATCHES WELL WITH THE HPC
GUIDANCE... INDICATING A CHC OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL IS CORRECT IT LOOKS LIKE THE RIDGE WILL
EVENTUALLY BUILD EAST BRINGING A PERIOD OF VERY WARM WEATHER
EARLY NEXT WEEK... ALONG WITH SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRIER AIR WILL BE WORKING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS WORKING SOUTHWARD. AREAS OF MVFR
CIGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL NY THROUGH AROUND 20Z... AND A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST PA. ALL
AREAS WILL BE VFR BY 22Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BE FROM NW-NE AT 5 TO 15 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT THEN NW AT 10 TO 15 KTS WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK... WED NGT THRU SAT...PRIMARILY VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM
NEAR TERM...DGM
SHORT TERM...DGM
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...MSE