Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 121918
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
Issued by National Weather Service STATE COLLEGE PA
218 PM EST Tue Dec 12 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Snow and difficult travel will continue to impact parts of the
area through midweek. Arctic air will support below average
temperatures with blustery winds making it feel even colder.
The arctic air is forecast to retreat into the weekend with
moderating temperatures expected into next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Snow has been steady over the northern tier counties (Syracuse
area) on the backside of complex low expected to consolidate
over eastern New England this evening. Visible satellite loop
and surface obs show the arctic front moving through the CWA
and will continue to monitor risk for brief snow squalls that
may impact the evening commute. Falling temperatures and melting
followed by re-freezing also remains a concern in areas that
warmed up near or above the freezing mark. The arctic front
will cross the I-81 corridor early this afternoon and
Catskills/Poconos by late afternoon.

Expect blustery winds behind the arctic front out of the west
or west-northwest. This will begin to send at least scattered
lake effect snow showers and flurries across the area. The snow
will be very dry and fluffy, prone to blowing and drifting. Lake
effect multibands will become more numerous overnight,
especially in Central New York, with low visibilities. No
changes to snow accumulations through tonight with the highest
amounts north of the NY Thruway. Minimum temperatures in the
teens combined with blustery winds will drop wind chills in the
positive and negative single digits.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
Lake effect continues this period, extending across the Finger
Lakes and Mohawk Valley into the southern tier and Catskills.
Strong surface winds will cause drifting and blowing of the lake
effect snow. Snow amounts for the day of 2 to 4 inches across
the eastern Finger Lakes east through the northern Susquehanna
Region and north to Syracuse/Rome/Utica for the day but isolated
higher amounts. The flow shifts as the trough shifts east.
Lake effect will pivot across the far northeast counties and
eventually diminish into Wednesday night.

Temperatures recover only slightly into the low and mid 20s but
with strong winds, wind chills will be mostly in the single
digits. Wednesday night temperatures fall to mostly 10 to 15
degrees. Wind chills remain about the same as wind speeds drop.
Sustained winds during the day of 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts
will blow around around any snow that has fallen or is falling.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1 pm update...
Cold and snowy pattern continues through the week. Lows
Wednesday night in the teens as a Clipper system moves across
southern PA Wednesday night into Thursday. Light snow from it
may briefly catch NE PA. The clipper low quickly moves off the
coast Thursday morning with northwest winds it behind it
developing lake effect snow through central NY. Remaining quite
cold Thursday with highs in the upper teens and lower 20s. A LES
band looks like it could set up through the SYR area and Mohawk
Valley Thursday into Thursday night before drifting north.
Another system will drop down into the Great Lake Region on
Friday. Southwest flow ahead of this will help moderate
temperatures some on Friday. As it moves east Saturday
additional light snow is possible with LES bands again possible
behind it on Sunday. And to keep the active pattern, more
disturbances are possible Monday and Tuuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR at KSYR-KRME with more variable conditions elsewhere in
occasional snow showers. An arctic front will sweep through this
afternoon and may be accompanied by snow squalls/brief drops in
visibility. Wind will shift to 270-300 degs with the frontal
passage this afternoon-evening with gusts of 20-25 knots. Lake
effect snow will keep IFR restrictions going at KRME-KSYR this
evening, and intermittent restrictions will eventually be
possible across the remainder of the NY terminals as the night
progresses.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Thursday...Gusty lake effect snow showers and
associated restrictions, especially NY terminals. Blowing and
drifting snow could be a significant problem Wednesday.

Thursday through Saturday...Still a chance for snow showers and
intermittent restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EST Wednesday for PAZ039-
     040.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM EST Wednesday for NYZ015-
     022>025-046-055>057-062.
     Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM EST Wednesday for NYZ009-
     016>018-036-037-044-045.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...BMW
AVIATION...MDP



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