Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY
FXUS61 KBGM 241919
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
319 PM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017
Late tonight through Tuesday, light rain will move into the
region, as a weak storm center tracks up the eastern seaboard. A
few showers may linger into Wednesday morning, before drier
conditions develop by afternoon.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Visible satellite imagery shows thicker higher clouds streaming
northeast across parts of northeast PA and southeast NY with
thinner cirrus farther north reaching the southern tier. GOES-16
imagery does show this higher thicker cloud cover slowly moving
north and in time as per model data will reach the PA-Ny border
by around 03z and northern NY by 09-12z.
These higher clouds were advancing northward in response to a
well-developing upper level low over Ga which will track east-
northeast tonight and Tuesday reaching the eastern NC coast.
Warm and moisture adevections will increase tonight over
northeast PA and central NY and spread light precipitation
northward. The low-levels were very dry at first so we expect
the onset of the rain will be delayed by a few hours vs radar
The first batch of light rain reaches into northeast PA between
03z-06z. This precipitation will be light initially and blossoms
more between 12z and 15z as it reaches into northern NY as a
short wave from the central Plains intercepts it and enhances
the lift. The next more significant round of steady rain reaches
northeast PA by around 12-15z Tuesday and 15-18z across the
rest of central NY. The rain will taper to showers from west to
east late in the day.
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
245 pm update... Tuesday night into Wednesday, the coastal
system will weaken and drift out to sea. As a result, lingering
showers will gradually diminish from west-east.
Residual lower cloudiness into Wednesday morning, should begin
to break up by late morning-early afternoon, particularly west
of the Interstate 81 corridor. Since the above mentioned
disturbance has no real cool air associated with it, Wednesday
afternoon will be mild, with highs ranging from the lower 60s
over the higher terrain of the Poconos and Catskills, to around
70 degrees for our Finger Lakes and Lake Ontario plain counties.
Wednesday night should be rain-free, as we reside under a narrow
ridge axis, in between the departing coastal cyclone, and a very
slowly advancing cold front over the Ohio Valley. Given a weak
S-SE flow in the boundary layer, some of our models are bringing
a marine-type cloud layer into at least parts of NEPA and the
southern tier of NY late Wednesday night. Details are still
sketchy this far out, so we`ll have to wait on this for a better
consensus. For now, we`ll opt for partly-mostly cloudy skies in
far eastern areas, and clear-partly cloudy skies farther west,
with mild overnight lows ranging in the 50s.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
3 pm update... On the large-scale, a trough will amplify over
the middle of the country this period, while an upper ridge
slowly builds over the western Atlantic. A resultant broad SW
flow aloft across CNY/NEPA will bring generally warmer
temperatures, along with perhaps unsettled conditions, as
mid-level short-waves are likely to be embedded.
As for the daily sensible weather, Thursday looks rain-free and
warm, as the cold front in the previous section remains well off
to the west during the daylight hours.
Thursday night into Friday, the above mentioned cold front will
track across CNY/NEPA while weakening. At least scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms are still expected, though.
Next weekend, the position of a W-E oriented surface boundary
will be key to our weather, with very warm temperatures likely
south of the front, and cooler, more showery conditions likely
to the north of it. For now, due to uncertainty, we`ve retained
a chance of showers both Saturday and Sunday, with
thunderstorms also possible by Sunday. As for temperatures,
we`ll go with daily highs in the 60s across our far northern
areas (southern Tug Hill and Mohawk Valley zones), with upper
70s-lower 80s down over NEPA.
.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR/unrestricted conditions will continue this afternoon
through most of this evening and into the overnight as high and
then middle level clouds overspread the region. Light easterly
wind will eventually become east to southeast around 10 knots
tonight and then 10-15 knots with gusts to 25 knots Tuesday
morning. Clouds will thicken to a lower VFR deck with approach
of system between 9z and 12z Tuesday. MVFR ceilings should
reach KAVP- KELM- KBGM-KITH between 12z and 15z and around 16z
or so KRME with rain. SYR looks to stay low end VFR in rain
through the forecast period.
Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night...Restrictions
possible, as showers move across portions of the region.
Wednesday through Wednesday night...VFR, other than a brief
restriction/shower still possible early morning for KBGM-KAVP.
Friday-Saturday...Restrictions possible, with at least
scattered showers anticipated along with a chance of thunder.