Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 211046
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
646 AM EDT Mon Aug 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level disturbance will produce isolated to scattered
thunderstorms this afternoon over northeast Pennsylvania and the
southern tier. A cold front will cross the area Tuesday
afternoon and evening bringing showers and thunderstorms, some
of which will be strong.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Surface high pressure off Delmarva will give the region a
southwest flow of warm air and increasingly humid air. A
combination of diurnal instability and a mid level short wave in
zonal flow will produce isolated to scattered thunderstorms
over northeast Pennsylvania and the southern tier from late this
morning through the afternoon. Skies will be mostly sunny
across the northern forecast area and partly sunny from the
southern tier south. Viewing the eclipse across the twin tiers
may be challenging due to cloud cover and convection. Highs will
range in the lower to middle 80s.

Tonight will be dry after lingering convection dissipates by
early evening. Conditions will be mild with lows ranging from 65
to 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Surface low pressure will track from the western Great Lakes
into southern Quebec and push a strong cold front through the
area between 21Z-03Z. Conditions still look favorable for severe
weather as models indicate surface based CAPE ranging from
1500-2500 J/KG, deep layer shear of 40-45 knots, strong mid
level flow, significant low level helicity and strong frontal
forcing. The only limiting factor continues to be the mid level
lapse rates. For now will mention gusty winds and heavy rain
with the thunderstorms during the mid afternoon and early
evening period. Will advertise categorical to likely pops with
frontal passage. The potentially significant convection will
move through the area by late evening with much of the activity
coming to an end after midnight.

Highs on Tuesday will range in the middle to upper 80s. Lows
Tuesday night will range in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Late this week through the weekend will be dominated by a
large-scale trough across eastern North America. The result will
be mostly dry conditions with temperatures below normal for late
August. A weak short wave may move through the area in
northwest flow on Thursday bringing a small chance for some
afternoon showers mainly over upstate NY and have raised pops to
20 to 30 percent for that area late Thursday, otherwise pops
will be lower than 20 percent. The cool dry pattern appears to
hold through the weekend and may even be re-inforced early next
week.


320 PM EDT Update... Updated forecast with new WPC guidance...

High pressure is expected to move into the region and
is expected to remain over the area for the remainder of the
forecast period. High pressure will result in dry weather below
seasonal temps.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KELM, valley fog with conditions near airport minimums will
lift by 13Z. A mid level short wave will increase cloud cover
late this morning through the afternoon across the southern
terminals with sct/bkn conditions around 5K feet at KRME/KSYR
just scattered clouds. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
also possible but not included in TAF due to limited areal
coverage. Overnight, just some mid/high level clouds with MVFR
conditions in fog possible primarily in the southern terminals
after 09Z.

Light and variable winds becoming southwest 5-10 knots then
light and variable again overnight.

Outlook...

Tuesday...Restrictions likely in showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday/Thursday/Friday...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...RRM



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