Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 201050
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
650 AM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm temperatures and dry conditions will persist through the
remainder of the week and the coming weekend, as high pressure will
remain in place across the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Satellite imagery and surface analysis this morning shows the region
placed between Jose moving up the east coast and weak trough to our
west, with a bubble of high pressure and mainly clear skies over the
region. GOES-16 nighttime microphysics imagery reveals that
radiational cooling across the region is leading to areas of
Southern Tier valley fog, with patchy fog across the lake plains, as
expected. This fog will quickly burn off after sunrise this morning.

850 mb temperatures in the +14 to +16C range today light northeast
winds and mostly sunny skies will lead to high temperatures in the
low 80s for most locations. Tonight, high pressure over the region
with light winds and clear skies will allow for more radiational
cooling fog formation in the Southern Tier valleys as well as the
North Country.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Two words will summarize this time period...DRY and WARM.

There will be an amplifying upper level pattern in place during this
time period with equally anomalous height departures found over each
half of the country. For our interest here in the Lower Great Lakes
region...H5 heights will average close to 590dm...which is 2-3 STD
higher than where they should be for this time of year. The staunch
summer-like ridge...which will be centered over the Mid-West and
Lower Great Lakes...will support unusually warm conditions as well.

H85 temperatures that will start off in the mid teens C will further
warm to the upper teens C by the weekend. This will encourage
additional day to day warming so that by Saturday...max temps will
be in the mid to upper 80s F. Given the increasingly dry antecedent
conditions...its not out of the question that select locations in
the Genesee Valley (ie. Dansville) and in the typically warmer
valleys of the Southern Tier would reach 90. If this were mid
summer...when the sun angle would be more than 20 deg greater...then
we would likely be talking about increasingly uncomfortable
conditions and possibly some oppressive heat (esp this weekend).
Luckily for us...the Gulf of Mexico will be cut off..so dew points
for much of the period will generally range from the upper 50s to
lower 60s.

Meanwhile the nights will feature mainly clear skies with the
resulting favorable radiational cooling producing fog in open...
outlying areas...and particularly in the Southern Tier valleys. Mins
will range from the mid and upper 50s across the Southern Tier and
parts of the North Country to the low to mid 60s across the lake
plains.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
It can be stated with high confidence that we can look forward to
continued fair weather during this period...along with continued mid
summer warmth (temperatures that will be more typical of late July-
early August).

An anomalously amplified pattern will be locked in across the
country during this time frame...with 590dm heights over the Lower
Great Lakes averaging some 2-3 STD above typical late Sept values.
The associated subsidence and lack of significant moisture will keep
sunny skies over our region by day...with H85 temps in the upper
teens c supporting widespread afternoon max temps in the mid to 80s.
The warmer valleys will experience highs in the upper 80s. These
temperatures will average some 15 to 20 degrees above normal.
Meanwhile at night...mins will continue to range from the mid and
upper 50s across the Southern Tier and parts of the North Country to
the low to mid 60s across the lake plains.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Patchy MVFR/IFR fog will quickly dissipate after sunrise this
morning. Then expect mostly clear skies today and VFR conditions,
apart from passing high clouds in western New York. Patchy fog will
develop again tonight.

Outlook...

Thursday through Sunday...Mainly VFR. Local IFR conditions each late
night and early morning with Southern Tier valley fog.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will remain in place across the Lower Great Lakes
right through next weekend. This will provide a long stretch of very
light winds and flat wave action for the rest of the week and next
weekend with ideal boating conditions, but not much wind for sailing.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CHURCH
NEAR TERM...CHURCH
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...CHURCH
MARINE...HITCHCOCK/THOMAS



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