Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 060915
AFDBUF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
415 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE BUT VERY COLD TEMPERATURES. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS...PRIMARILY TO THE NORTH COUNTRY. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE
WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH A MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WARM NEXT WEEK WITH 40S BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS THE ARCTIC AIR SLOWLY RETREATS TO THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS MORNING WILL DAWN CLEAR AND VERY COLD FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND
NORTH-CENTRAL NEW YORK.  WITH A COUPLE MORE HOURS TO GO TO
SUNRISE...IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT BUFFALO MAY TIE OR PERHAPS BREAK
ITS RECORD LOW OF 0...SET IN 2007...HOWEVER RECORDS AT ROCHESTER AND
WATERTOWN LOOK SAFE...OWING PARTLY TO THE PRESENCE OF A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY BREEZE AT WATERTOWN AND LINGERING LAKE EFFECT CLOUD COVER
AFFECTING ROCHESTER.

SUNSHINE WILL BE IN ABUNDANCE TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS
THE REGION. THE PLENTIFUL INSOLATION SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
RISE TO AROUND 20 BY THIS AFTERNOON...OR COURSE THE NOMINALLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TEMPERED BY INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH
WINDS GUSTING TO TO AROUND 20MPH BY THIS AFTERNOON...YIELDING WIND
CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST
BY EVENING AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE AREA.
THIS MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
TO THE NORTH COUNTRY WHERE THE BULK OF THE VERY LIMITED MOISTURE
WILL BE FOUND. OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE LARGELY DRY ELSEWHERE WITH
ONLY A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SNOW SHOWER. THE CLOUD COVER AND WARM
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES
RELATIVELY STEADY THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH ONLY A SLIGHT DROP INTO THE
MID/UPPER TEENS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WEST TO SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO
THE START OF NEXT WEEK WILL HELP BOOST OUR TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
EARLY MARCH NORMALS WHILE NUMEROUS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSSING
THE GREAT LAKES WITHIN THE POLAR JET WILL BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
NUISANCE LIGHT SNOW TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE FIRST OF THESE
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES AND ITS ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION
WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
THE BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE CENTERING ON SATURDAY EVENING TAPERING TO
JUST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. A THIN MOISTURE PROFILE
LIMITED TO ONLY AROUND 10KFT THICK AND THE PROGRESSIVE SPEED OF THE
SYSTEM WILL LIMIT SNOW TO ONE TO THREE INCHES WITH THAT HIGHER TOTAL
FALLING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN BOOSTED BY UPSLOPE FLOW.

ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY TWO MORE QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVES ON THE HEELS
OF THE FIRST WILL BRING MORE CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS BUT WITH DRIER
AND MORE SHALLOW MOISTURE PROFILES. THIS WILL LIMIT EACH PERIOD OF
SNOW SHOWERS TO A HALF INCH OR LESS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WILL PUSH TOWARD 30 DEGREES WHICH IS STILL MORE THAN 5
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WHILE OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY SLIP
BACK TO AROUND 20 WITH THE CLOUD COVER AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE NORTH
COUNTY WOULD BE THE EXCEPTION HERE LIKELY SLIPPING INTO THE
TEENS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG-AWAITED ALBEIT BRIEF WARM-UP THAT WE HAVE BEEN KEEPING AN
EYE ON LATELY STILL LOOKS TO BE ON TARGET FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AS A MORE PACIFIC SOURCED FLOW SETS UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS ALLOWING HEIGHT RISES AND WARM ADVECTION TO SPREAD EAST.
THE MAJORITY OF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT HIGHS
TUESDAY WEDNESDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S WITH A PEAK
ON WEDNESDAY. THE 00Z GFS IS THE EXCEPTION SHOWING A PEAK ON TUESDAY
THEN A SHARP TROUGH CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES WEDNESDAY WITH COMPACT
SURFACE LOW WELL NORTH OF THE LAKES. THIS WOULD BRING A MUCH EARLIER
RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPS THAN WHAT WE ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTING AND
A CHANCE OF MORE SNOW SHOWERS. SINCE THE GFS IS THE OUTLIER HAVE RAN
WITH A BLEND OF CONTINUITY...00Z ECMWF AND WPC GUIDANCE FOR
WEDNESDAY.

BY THURSDAY THIS BLEND OF TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SLIGHT
COOL DOWN AS 00Z EC SHOWS A FLAT 500MB TROUGH CROSSING THE GREAT
LAKES WITH ACCOMPANYING DRY AIRMASS. GENERALLY EXPECT AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOWER LAKES AS LONG AS THE
00Z GFS DOES NOT VERIFY.

THE WARMER TEMPERATURES SHOULD BRING LITTLE OR NO FLOOD RISK WITH NO
ACCOMPANYING HEAVY RAIN. THE WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL SIMPLY ALLOW THE
SNOWPACK TO CONSOLIDATE AND RIPEN. WHILE THE DEPTH OF SNOW ON THE
GROUND WILL DROP...ONLY A SMALL AMOUNT OF WATER WILL BE RELEASED AS
THE INITIAL MELTWATER IS RE-ABSORBED BY THE REMAINING SNOW. THE
LATEST FORECAST DOES NOT SUPPORT A LONG ENOUGH THAW PERIOD FOR MUCH
OF AN ICE BREAKUP ON THE STREAMS AND RIVERS. EXPECT THE ICE MAY VERY
WELL STAY LARGELY IN PLACE EVEN WITH THE WARMER DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS TO THE REGION TODAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS THIS AFTERNOON AS
FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES
WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH
COUNTRY...AFTER 06Z SAT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS LATE.
SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR WITH SNOW SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY. SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.
TUESDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BRING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TO THE
REMAINING UNFROZEN WATERS OF LAKE ONTARIO THIS MORNING.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL FRESHEN TO 10-20KTS THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...HOWEVER ANY WAVE ACTION
SHOULD BE CONFINED MAINLY TO CANADIAN WATERS. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
CROSS THE LAKES SATURDAY EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW
SUNDAY.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOOD
NEAR TERM...WOOD
SHORT TERM...SMITH
LONG TERM...HITCHCOCK/SMITH
AVIATION...WOOD
MARINE...WOOD






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