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000
FXUS63 KDVN 170416
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1116 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING MAIN SFC LOW ACRS NORTHERN MS/
SOUTHERN TN VALLEY REGIONS...WITH BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN TO THE
NORTH OF IT ACRS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND OH RVR VALLEY. SFC RIDGE
LOBE NOTED TO THE NORTH OF THESE FIELDS EDGING SOUTHWARD AND LOOKING
TO ENGULF THE AREA TONIGHT. DEEPENING SUBSIDENCE REGIME SEEN ON
WATER VAPOR LOOP ACRS THE SOUTHWESTERN PLAINS AND UP THROUGH WI
CONTINUING TO BUILD THIS WAY. THIS ALONG WITH LOSS OF AFTERNOON
HEATING...AND THE LLVL NORTHEAST FETCH BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY AS
THE MAIN CYCLONE MIGRATES EASTWARD ENDING GRT LKS FETCH...TO LEAD TO
AMBIENT CU DECAY THROUGH THE EVENING. ALOFT...BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CURRENTLY ACRS THE ROCKIES WILL LOOK SAG ACRS PORTIONS OF THE
MIDWEST THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. AS MENTIONED IN AN EARLIER UPDATE...
THE AREAL FLOOD WATCH ALONG THE ROCK RIVER FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
ICE JAMS/ICE ACTION INDUCED FLOODING HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH MON
EVENING/00Z TUE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

TONIGHT...AS THE UPSTREAM SFC RIDGE SETTLES OVERHEAD...EXPECT SFC
WIND DROP OFF...CLEARING SKIES TO REVEAL THE FULL WORM MOON...AND
UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURE PROFILES TO MAKE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT.
MANY LOWS WELL DOWN IN THE TEENS CWA-WIDE....WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME COOL AIR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS DIPPING CLOSE TO SINGLE DIGITS.
POSSIBILITY OF SOME VALLEY FOG OR EVEN SOME PATCHY FOG ACRS THE
SOUTHERN CWA OVER FRESH SNOW PACK THAT HAS PRODUCED SOME MELT-
MOISTURE INTO THE SFC LAYER. BUT CONFIDENCE ON AREAL COVERAGE AND
EXTENT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT NOT THERE TO PUT IN THE FCST YET AT THIS
POINT.

MONDAY...GOOD AGREEMENT WITH VARIOUS 12Z RUN MODELS IN HANDLING SFC
RIDGE MIGRATION TO THE EAST OF THE AREA...ALLOWING INCREASING
SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. AFTER COOL START
TO THE DAY...INCREASING MIXING UP TO BASE OF H9-H8 MB INVERSION IN
THERMALLY MODERATING PROFILE SUPPORTS MOST OF THE CWA TO RETURN TO
THE 40S FOR HIGHS...ALL EXCEPT FOR MAYBE THE HWY 20 CORRIDOR. SOME
AREAS IN THE SOUTHWEST THIRD MAY WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S AFTER ANY
LINGERING SNOW COVER MELTS OFF. AN ELEVATED WARM AIR ADVECTION WING
OF MID DECK CLOUDS MAY SKIRT ACRS THE NORTHERN CWA FROM MID MON
MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST/NORTHEAST.     ..12..

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE DEPARTS THE AREA. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.

THE MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE SYSTEM A BIT MORE. HOWEVER...THE
MODELS ARE NOW TRENDING THE TRACK OF THE LOW SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH.
THE WRF IS THE OUTLIER MODEL IN TAKING THE LOW CENTER INTO SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA.

SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW A NICE WARM UP IN
SPITE OF THE CLOUDS ON TUESDAY. THE MORNING HOURS WILL BE DRY WITH
MOST AREAS ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ALSO DRY DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS NOT GREAT BUT SOME SPRINKLES OR
VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOULD ENTER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. IF THE ECMWF/GEM ARE CORRECT THE POTENTIAL DOES
EXIST THAT TUESDAY AFTERNOON COULD BE DRY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

TUESDAY NIGHT THE LOW SHOULD TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
AREA ALLOWING WINDS TO DECREASE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS. BY LATE TUESDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL INCREASE
CONSIDERABLY AND BECOME QUITE BRISK. LIGHT RAIN WILL BE SEEN ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE EVENING. IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS OF WEDNESDAY A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP AS COLDER AIR MOVES INTO THE
AREA. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE A DUSTING AT BEST.

EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING A RAIN/SNOW MIX SHOULD BE SEEN OVER THE
NORTHEAST TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA THAT CHANGES BACK TO ALL RAIN BY
MID DAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN BRISK ON WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON...
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS AN AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY WILL BE THE KEY AS TO WHETHER OR NOT ANY PRECIPITATION
WILL OCCUR.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY AS A SMALL HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS AS ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE DISAGREEMENTS ON WHERE THE LOW CENTER WILL TRACK.
HOWEVER...THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT THAT A FRONT OR BOUNDARY
WILL SET UP ACROSS THE AREA PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION.

FRIDAY NIGHT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVER ROUGHLY THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE AREA. THE SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ARE DUE TO THE DISAGREEMENTS AMONG THE MODELS AS TO WHEN
THE SYSTEM DEPARTS THE AREA. THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST THAT FRIDAY
NIGHT MAY BE DRY.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS AS
ANOTHER HIGH MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST.

ON SUNDAY...THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS YET
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS
IN QUESTION AS IS THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM.    ..08..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1113 PM CDT SUN MAR 16 2014

QUIET WEATHER...FAIR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AT ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH AT LEAST 17/06Z. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST WITH ENE
WIND DIMINISHING TO 4 TO 8 KTS OVERNIGHT AND BECOMING SOUTHEAST BY
MORNING. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KTS DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY. FEW-SCT COVERAGE OF HIGH CLOUDS ON MONDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR HENRY IL-ROCK ISLAND-
     WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...NICHOLS