Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KFGF 132118
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
318 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE SNOW EVENT AND WIND TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. MODELS HAVE COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM AND
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING WITH EVOLUTION OF EVENT. THE GFS HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT ALONG WITH THE NAM SO WILL UTILIZE A BLEND.

FOR TONIGHT...SNOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE WESTERN FA IN THE 00-03Z
TIMEFRAME THEN SLOWLY MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE TO BLOW AROUND 20-23KT ALONG AND WEST OF THE
VALLEY...SO WHEN SNOW IS FALLING EXPECT SOME BLOWING SNOW. WINDS
WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AFTER 9Z. THE BEST LIFT PER Q VECTOR FIELDS
DOES MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN FA LATER TONIGHT WITH MAINLY
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE. THERE SHOULD BE A
BAND OF 2-5 INCHES IN THE SOUTH AND WEST OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH
THE WIND. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED INTO
THE NORTHERN VALLEY IF SNOW MOVES IN FASTER TONIGHT AND IS HEAVIER
THAN EXPECTED. IT WILL TAKE QUITE SOME TIME TO SATURATE TO THE
EAST THOUGH WITH A VERY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...BUT WE WILL
MONITOR. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RISE TONIGHT WITH CONTINUED WAA.

ON SUNDAY...THE MAIN BAND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE MOVING INTO THE
VALLEY EARLY THEN SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE
SHORTWAVE. SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH...PERHAPS UP TO
2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER THOUGH WITH NO
BLOWING SNOW THREAT AFTER 15Z OR SO.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...ANY LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WILL BE IN THE FAR EAST
WITH ALL OTHER AREAS DRY. TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY MILD WITH SOME
CLOUDS EXPECTED WITH NOT MUCH CLEARING BEHIND SHORTWAVE AND
MINIMAL CAA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

FOR MONDAY...EXPECT A DRY DAY WITH TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL. NW FLOW
WILL PERSIST WITH CLOUDS INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WITH A FAST MOVING
SHORTWAVE WILL SPREAD NW TO SE. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE BUT CAN/T RULE OUT AN INCH OR SO...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN 1/3
OF THE REGION NEAR BETTER LIFT.

ON TUESDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN WITH SOME CAA SO TEMPS
WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN MONDAY.

FOR WED THROUGH SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RETREATING TO THE
EAST AS THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS TUESDAY EVENING TO BE FOLLOWED
BY A COUPLE OF MAINLY DRY DAYS. GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
RETURN SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND ZONAL ALOFT ENCOURAGING SURFACE
TEMP RISES TO ABOVE AVERAGE VALUES AS 850 MB READINGS STAY ABOVE
FREEZING A GOOD PART OF THE TIME. SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING
INTERNATIONAL BORDER THURS NIGHT/FRIDAY IS REFLECTED WEAKLY AT SFC
BUT WITH TEMP PROFILES AS THEY ARE ANYTHING OR EVERYTHING FROM
SN/RA/FZRA WILL BE POSSIBLE TO END THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

SE WINDS WILL FRESHEN (ALREADY 20KT AT KDVL) FROM KDVL THROUGH
VALLEY SITES BY LATE AFTN UNDER MID AND HIGH CLOUD DECKS. SWATH OF
LIGHT TO BRIEFLY MODERATE SNOW WILL MOVE IN AFTER SUNSET ON A TRACK
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. REDUCED VSBY TO 1SM MOST LOCATIONS WITH
COMBINATION OF FALLING SNOW AND 20 KT SUSTAINED WINDS GUSTING TOWARD
30 KT.

MAY NEED TO LOWER VSBYS LATER ON AS ONSET OF PCPN DRAWS CLOSER BUT
1SM SEEMS GOOD FOR NOW. SNOW SHOULD END BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY
AFTERNOON SUNDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     SUNDAY FOR NDZ006-014-015-024-026-028-029-038-039-049-052-
     053.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON CST
     SUNDAY FOR MNZ003-029-030-040.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...WJB/DK
AVIATION...WJB


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.