Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 011122
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
622 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014

MAIN CONCERNS FOR TODAY WILL BE WIND POTENTIAL...AND NEAR CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. 00Z MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT.

THE REGION WILL BE WITHIN STRONGER SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT. DURING
THE DAY...ADIABATIC LAYER TO AT LEAST 900MB WITH AROUND 35 KNOTS
AT THIS LAYER AVAILABLE TO MIX. MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. SOUTHERLY WINDS USUALLY
DO NOT MIX AS EFFICIENTLY (LACK OF STRONG DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM)...THUS WILL NOT ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY.

NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF THE DRY AIR ALOFT WILL BE ABLE TO MIX TO THE
SFC...BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE MIN RH VALUES AROUND 25-30
PERCENT...LEADING TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

ON SUNDAY...THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION...LEADING TO
MAX TEMPS INTO THE 50S. WINDS WILL BE WEAKER THAN SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...UPPER WAVE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL PROPAGATE FROM EASTERN MONTANA INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA...AND
THEN CONTINUE TO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL SEND A WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE
CONSIDERING THE EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS COMBINED WITH ONLY WEAK
FORCING.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...CHALLENGE FOR THE UPCOMING EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
BE PCPN TYPE FOR A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH ABOUT WEDNESDAY.
SURFACE TEMPS TYPICAL OF THIS TIME OF YEAR WOULD INDICATE MIXED OR
SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING WITH RAIN DURING THE DAY AS NEAR
SURFACE TEMPS WARM INTO THE 40S. IN ANY CASE THIS DOES NOT LOOK
LIKE A NOTABLE EVENT AS WE HEAD INTO EARLY OCTOBER. BOTH GFS/ECMWF
INDICATE A CLIPPER DIVING SOUTH AND EAST AND CLEARING THE FORECAST
AREA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM WILL LEAVE A CHILLY THURSDAY
IN ITS WAKE BEFORE SHORT WAVE RIDGING DRIVES THE REGION TO ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPS TO END THE WEEK ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014

THERE COULD BE HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT LIKELY NOTHING
BELOW 20KFT. SOUTH WINDS 20-25 KNOTS ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY
INTO THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS...THEN DIMINISHING THIS EVENING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...WJB/TG
AVIATION...TG






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