Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KFGF 292110
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
310 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE...CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE THE MAIN CHALLENGE...ALONG WITH SNOW CHANCES FOR THE LAKE
OF THE WOODS AREA.

TONIGHT...SFC RIDGING AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL MOVE INTO MUCH OF
THE REGION. THERE IS SOME CONVECTIVE CU WITHIN THIS AREA...BUT
ANTICIPATE THESE TO DISSIPATE LEADING CLEAR SKY THIS EVENING.
CLOUDS ACROSS THE EXTREME WESTERN FA MAY STAY IN PLACE...AS THE
RAP/HRRR SUGGEST...AND THEN BEGIN TO ADVECT BACK EAST AS RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPS. OBVIOUSLY...TEMPS WILL REMAIN STEADY WHERE CLOUDS
REMAIN...BUT QUICKLY DROP WHERE THE SKY IS CLEAR AND WINDS LIGHT.
ONCE RETURN FLOW AND/OR CLOUDS COMMENCE ANTICIPATE TEMPS TO STEADY
OR SLOWLY RISE.

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES -SN ACROSS THE LAKE
OF THE WOODS REGION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE. DID
INCREASE POPS...AND EXPECT AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW (MAINLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON).

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION AS THE NEXT UPPER WAVE AFFECTS THE REGION. THERE IS STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGING...AND HOW
FAR NORTH THE SNOW SHIELD WILL BE ABLE TO AFFECT. THE ECMWF/GEM
ARE A BIT FURTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS/NAM. AT ANY RATE...KEPT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN FA...AND WILL ADJUST WHEN
CONFIDENCE INCREASES. A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS IN PLACE MAY LEAD TO
WIND CHILL ISSUES.

SUNDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY...LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA SHIFTS A LITTLE EAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE
TROUGH OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA SHIFTS A LITTLE NORTH AND EAST
INTO THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO WITH A TROUGH INTO EASTERN NORTH
AMERICA. PATTERN DEAMPLIFIES A BIT THIS PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF
WERE SIMILAR AT 84 HOURS. THE GFS WAS A FASTER SOLUTION FOR THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. WILL PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF.

SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH MON/MON NIGHT AND IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW OVER MAINLY SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND
DROP COLD AIR ACROSS THE BORDER TUE NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPS WERE INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR MON AND DECREASED ONE
TO FIVE DEGREES FOR TUE AND WED. TEMPS INCREASED ONE TO THREE
DEGREES FOR THU FROM THIS MORNINGS FORECAST PACKAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS THE AREA. CIGS WERE BETWEEN 14
AND 29 HUNDRED FT. OCCASIONALLY VISIBILITIES MAY GO DOWN TO 1 TO 2
MILES IN LIGHT SNOW. FOR LOOP INDICATED SOME CLEARING FROM ROSEAU T
BACKER COUNTIES AND FROM CAVALIER TO STEELE COUNTIES. CLEARING WAS
ALSO OCCURRING IN THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY PROPER BUT CLOUDS
WERE REFORMING WITH THE SUNSHINE. WILL MAINTAIN THE MVFR CONDITIONS
FOR THE AFTERNOON. SATELLITE LOOP ALSO INDICATED MID LEVEL CLOUDS
OVER CENTRAL SASK. SO EXPECT CLEARING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FROM THE RED RIVER VALLEY PROPER AND EAST INTO MN. EXPECT
MVFR CIGS TO REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT. EXPECT MID
LEVEL CLOUDS OVER SASK TO SPILL INTO THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE AREA
LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/HOPPES
AVIATION...HOPPES



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.