Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 140035

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
635 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

Issued at 635 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

Patches of light snow and flurries, and even freezing drizzle
early this evening, will continue across the area overnight. With
such a limited and varying layer of saturation to combine with
weak forcing, it`s tough to pinpoint exact locations to focus on until
later tonight when another clipper and weak upper disturbance
provide more focused forcing as they swing through the Dakotas.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 237 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

North to northwest flow continues to bring clipper systems to the
region. Most recent clippers impact is waning as winds continue to
decrease. There does remain some light snow and flurries across
the area. Expecting flurries to again be on and off through the
rest of the evening and into the overnight especially in eastern
ND where the baroclinic zone is tighter and the airmass is closer
to saturation. Clouds across the valley and eastern ND will keep
low temps up overnight with single digits in the Lake of the
Woods and Roseau area as fewer clouds are expected.

Impacts for the next couple systems appear to be less as there is
less wind and the threat for freezing rain is negligible. The
first looks to bring some light snow across the western portions
of the forecast area overnight with accumulations less than an
inch. The second brings some light snow to the valley and NW MN
during the day Thursday. Again another dusting with less than an
inch expected.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 237 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

The region remains in northwest flow aloft through Friday night,
with periodic weak impulses dropping through. At this point, it
appears that the late Friday into Friday night one has the best
agreement between the EC/GFS, but the Canadian model is totally
different. The EC/GFS solution shows a swath of light snow from
northeast ND down through northwest and west central MN. At this
point it looks like an inch or two of snow. For this system also,
wind speeds look to stay on the lower end, which should lessen its
impact. Temperatures will see the typical roller coaster effect,
with rises ahead of systems and falls behind.

The pattern shifts to a little more zonal by Saturday, as a trough
builds into the central plains. This trough should pass through the
FA by Sunday, with the flow shifting back to the northwest after
this. Model agreement really diverges by this point, but overall not
seeing any strong systems. Temperatures also should stay in the same
ballpark as they have been recently.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 635 PM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

IFR and MVFR cigs will prevail overnight and through the morning with
a clipper system passing through western ND and SD. Light snow or
freezing drizzle will occur intermittently through the night in
the area, perhaps even reducing vsby to MVFR at times, but
confidence is low regarding precise timing and locations.




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