Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 240202
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1002 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will run below normal through early Friday as cool
high pressure holds across the area. A warming trend will begin
Friday afternoon through the weekend, as low pressure slowly
approaches from the west. This system will bring a chance of
rain late in the weekend, followed by another system Monday into
Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1000 PM Thursday...A Frost Advisory is in effect for
Robeson, Bladen, Pender and Columbus counties overnight and into
Fri morning. A good deal of clear skies are expected to continue
overnight with some increasing high level moisture which will
be manifested in the form of thin cirrus late. Marine stratocumulus
will approach the coast overnight and a few may brush portions
of the immediate coast near sunrise. Winds will be light to
calm. This provides sufficient opportunity for a decent amount
of radiational cooling. Also, low level moisture has been
increasing and dewpoints will hold steady if not rise slightly
for the remainder of the night. As dewpoint depressions narrow
to a degree or two, we expect frost to develop where temps drop
to the mid 30s. This will be primarily across out northernmost
counties where we expect areas of frost with the best coverage
likely across Bladen and inland Pender counties. Pockets of
frost could locally develop elsewhere away from the coast where
temps drop to 37 or below. We are generally forecasting lows in
the upper 30s to around 40 outside the Frost Advisory area with
lower to mid 40s along the immediate coast.

Cold high pressure along the eastern seaboard will slip offshore
late tonight and Fri as a coastal trough develops offshore and
drifts west. Surface winds turn southerly on Friday, allowing
a modest warm-advective regime to set up. Highs will finally
rise back up to near or just above normal with most places
seeing a degree or two either side of 70. Expect some afternoon
cu to form with the lower layers moistening up.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Thursday...A return to above normal temperatures
will take place heading into the weekend. Atlantic high pressure
will maintain a solid southerly return flow through the low
levels bringing warmer and moister air into the Carolinas
through the weekend. Mid to upper ridge building up the
southeast coast will shift east through the period. Overall,
plenty of dry air and subsidence in the mid levels with H5
heights peaking up near 585 dam early Sat. As the ridge slips
east, the deep S-SW flow will stream some high clouds into the
area and the low level moisture increase up through h85 will
also aid in development of some afternoon cu, especially along
the convergent sea breeze in the afternoon. Overall, expect
mainly clear skies with a good deal of sunshine and above normal
temps. The 850 temps will be near 6 to 7c through the period
which is up from near 0c just the day before. Low temps around
50 Fri night will rise into the mid 70s on Saturday. Sun night
will be almost 10 degrees above normal with low temps in the mid
50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 AM Thursday...Rain chances are best inland Sunday as
a low pressure system swerves north, well west of the coast. A
warm and humid day Sunday all areas, well into the 70s, if not a
few 80s depending on cloud cover extent, even ceiling breaks
could warm the air quickly. A rumble of thunder is possible and
favored inland. A few low pressure centers beneath short-waves
will sustain low end rain chances Monday into Tuesday. QPF looks
quite low but hopefully enough to knock a little pollen out of
the sky and pines. No cold air on the horizon and temperatures
overall appear to run above normal through the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 00Z...High confidence in VFR for all terminals through
the TAF valid period.

Some thin cirrus at 25 kft should reach the terminals overnight.
A coastal trough will drift west as high pressure moves seaward
overnight and Fri. As low level moisture continues to very gradually
increase, there will be some cumulus development atop the mixed
layer with heating of the day Fri afternoon, 3-5 kft. Along the
coast, some marine stratocumulus, 1500-2500 ft may brush the
coastal terminals Fri morning. Ceilings are not forecast.

Extended outlook...Flight category restrictions are possible in
stratus/fog during the early morning hours of Sat and Sun and
in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms Sun through
Tue.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1000 PM Thursday...All headlines have been discontinued
across the waters late this eve.

For the remainder of the night, seas of 3 to 5 ft will slowly
subside to 3 to 4 ft with a 2 ft easterly swell on the order of
10 to 11 seconds. The wind direction will be ENE to NE at 10 to
15 kt. As a developing offshore coastal trough creeps to the W,
wind speeds are expected to decrease slightly by Fri morning.

High pressure will pass offshore Friday and winds will be on
the order of 5 to 10 kt and seas around 2 ft.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Thursday...High pressure anchored over the
Atlantic will maintain a S-SE return flow across the waters...10
kts or less. Should see a spike in on shore flow with the
afternoon sea breeze. The southerly push will produce a gradual
rise in seas from 2 to 3 ft up to 2 to 4 ft by Sat night.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 AM Thursday...No advisories are expected Sunday and
Monday but seas may approach 4 feet since southerly flow remains
persistent. Isolated marine showers can be expected this period
but TSTMS if any would be confined to the Gulf Stream if at
all. Seas 3-4 feet mainly in SE waves between 7-10 second
intervals with a moderate chop. The warm land temps will support
a sea breeze so expected gusts near 20 KT near shore in the
afternoon hours.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for NCZ087-096-099-
     105.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...REK/RJD
SHORT TERM...RGZ
LONG TERM...MJC
AVIATION...RJD



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