Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 211421
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1021 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SUNNY AND WARM WEATHER IS EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO PASS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW THROUGH MID WEEK. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
AND CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL LATE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM TUESDAY...EXITING SHORTWAVE LEAVING BEHIND DEEP SW-W
FLOW ROUNDING THE BASE OF DEEP TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD
THROUGH THE DAY. INCREASED SUBSIDENCE WILL HELP KEEP COLUMN VERY
DRY WITH PCP WATER VALUES DOWN NEAR A HALF INCH AIDED BY DOWNSLOPE
FLOW OUT OF THE WEST. THIS DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO
WARMING THROUGH TODAY COMBINED WITH BRIGHT SUNSHINE TO PRODUCE
TEMPS REACHING INTO THE 80S MOST PLACES.

PARENT LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES EAST ACROSS
THE MID ATLANTIC AS IT DIGS SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT. SUBSIDENCE AND
DRY AIR FOLLOWING SHORTWAVE THIS MORNING WILL AID IN KEEPING A
VERY DRY FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL
DRIVE A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
ALTHOUGH DECENT DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL CROSS OVER NORTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA...THE COLUMN REMAINS TOO DRY FOR ANY PCP. A FEW CLOUDS
MAY BRUSH OUR NORTHERN ZONES OVERNIGHT BUT THE MAIN IMPACTS OF THE
FROPA WILL BE THE ADVECTION OF MUCH COOLER AIR BEHIND IT. EXPECT DEEP
COOL NNW FLOW BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY...DELIVERING A REINFORCING
SHOT OF AUTUMN-LIKE WEATHER. CAA WILL LEAD TO TEMPS DOWN IN THE
40S INLAND BY DAYBREAK AND CLOSER TO 50 ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...POTENT MID LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL BE THE
FEATURE OF EMPHASIS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE LOW WILL
MOVE SLOWLY FROM THE DELMARVA REGION WEDNESDAY TO NEAR MAINE
FRIDAY MORNING. A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RESULT FOR OUR
CWA WITH LITTLE IF ANY CLOUD COVER AND CERTAINLY NO POPS.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE HAS WARMED SLIGHTLY FOR WEDNESDAY AND THE
INTERESTING PHENOMENA OCCURS THURSDAY. GUIDANCE IS ACTUALLY A BIT
COOLER FOR HIGHS THEN AS WHAT APPEARS TO BE LESS OF A WARMING
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT IS PRESENT. THIS DESPITE 850MB TEMPERATURES
WARMING SLIGHTLY. WITH THIS MORNINGS FORECAST I HAVE ADJUSTED THE
FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN THOSE OBSERVED MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED PERIOD REMAINS RATHER QUIET
AND DRY PER THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE. THE MID LEVEL
PATTERN SLOWLY TRANSITIONS FROM A NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY TO MORE OF
A ZONAL WEST/EAST SCENARIO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SURFACE FEATURE
IS MAINLY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WITH A GLANCING
BLOW FROM A DRY FRONT SUNDAY THEN HIGH PRESSURE GETTING
REESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA. THIS FRONT HAS LITTLE IF ANY IMPACT
AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
EARLY ON HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S MODERATING TO
ALL 70S EARLY NEXT WEEK. SAME TREND WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH 40S
WARMING TO ALL 50S BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...AREAS OF IFR THIS MORNING DUE TO PATCHY FOG/LOW CIGS
THIS MORNING WILL IMPROVE TO VFR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ALLOWING
FOR VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.

AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CIGS ARE CURRENTLY CREATING IFR AT BOTH KFLO
AND KLBT THIS MORNING. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TO VFR
WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALLOWING FOR VFR TO PREVAIL. NEARLY CLEAR
SKIES AND WEST WINDS AOB 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF TODAY. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE AREA ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO BECOME NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY
AOB 10 KTS...WITH GUSTS POSSIBLE...AS VFR PREVAILS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 AM TUESDAY...W-WSW WINDS MOST AREAS TODAY 15 KT OR LESS
TURNING SW IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INSHORE WATERS IN RESPONSE
TO THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. SEAS WILL HOLD N A 2-3 FOOT RANGE
TODAY IN THE OFFSHORE WIND...HIGHEST OUTER PORTION. TONIGHT A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A MODERATELY STRONG WIND-SHIFT TO THE NNW IN THE
LATE EVENING TO VERY EARLY MORNING. THIS WILL RAISE WIND SPEEDS TO
15-20 KT AND A PRECAUTIONARY STATEMENT COULD BE REQUIRED OVERNIGHT SEAS
UP TO 5 FT OFFSHORE AND 20 KT WINDS...THIS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. THE SEA SPECTRUM WILL BE COMPRISED OF ESE WAVES 1-1.5 FT
EVERY 10 SECONDS...AND 0.5-1.5 FT OF WSW-SW WIND WAVES AND
CHOPPINESS. ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE AND FAVORED OVER THE MILDER
OFFSHORE WATERS.



SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...A BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE FOR A FEW HOURS WEDNESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING EVER SO
SLIGHTLY BY THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS DUE TO THE BROAD AND POTENT
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND LOW PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST. THE FLOW THEN
STABILIZES INTO A 10-15 KNOT RANGE WHERE IT STAYS UNTIL FRIDAY
MORNING. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET WEDNESDAY DROPPING TO 2-3 FEET
THURSDAY.



LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT FOR THE MARINE
COMMUNITY FOR WEEKS END. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 10-15 KNOTS.
SATURDAY WILL PROBABLY SEE THE LOWER SIDE OF THIS RANGE. SIGNIFICANT
SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FEET.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RGZ
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...SGL






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