Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 281428
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
928 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TODAY AND SATURDAY WILL REMAIN COOL AND DRY. A NICE WARM-UP WILL
BEGIN SUNDAY AND CONTINUE MONDAY. THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD
SEE TEMPERATURES SETTLE BACK DOWN TO NORMAL UNDER MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM FRIDAY...TEMPERATURE TRENDS APPEAR TO BE SPOT ON. NO
CHANGES TO FORECAST WITH THE MID MORNING UPDATE. COOL AND DRY
THROUGH TONIGHT.




.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD SATURDAY
MORNING WILL PUSH OFFSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY...AND THEN MOVE EVEN
FURTHER EAST ON SUNDAY. WHILE THE CENTER WILL PUSH WELL TO THE
EAST...A RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE BACK INTO THE
CAROLINAS...MAINTAINING WARM SW FLOW THROUGH THE WKND. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AS A RIDGE
DEVELOPS OVER FLORIDA...TO CREATE A BEAUTIFUL LATE-FALL WKND.
ALTHOUGH A BIT OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY
BEHIND A DEPARTING IMPULSE TO THE NORTH...MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL
BE CLOUDLESS AND DRY. THE BUILDING HEIGHTS AND LONG-DURATION
RETURN FLOW WILL BUMP TEMPS TO ABOVE NORMAL BY SUNDAY AS WELL.
SATURDAY WILL FEATURE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID
50S...BUT THESE WILL CLIMB A GOOD 10 DEGREES ON SUNDAY WITH
MID/UPR 60S BECOMING WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE CWA. MINS WILL FOLLOW
THE SAME PATTERN...RISING FROM NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY NIGHT 2-3
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF 40...COOLEST WEST...TO THE MID/UPR 40S
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...VERY WARM TO BEGIN THE PERIOD AS MID-LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS WILL INTERACT WITH CONTINUED SW
RETURN FLOW AROUND A DISTANT HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...AND TEMPS
MONDAY SHOULD REACH 70 ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA.

THIS WARMUP WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER...AS A STRONG BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE DROP INTO THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY. THIS
WILL DROP TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL FOR TUESDAY...AS
WELL AS INCREASE BOTH CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES. OVERALL PRECIPITATE
WATER VALUES REMAINS PRETTY LOW...REACHING ONLY ABOUT 0.75 INCHES
TUESDAY NIGHT...AND MOST OF THIS MOISTURE IS CONFINED BENEATH 500MB.
STILL...THIS SUGGESTS AT LEAST A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE
WHICH TYPICALLY DEVELOPS IN THESE SITUATIONS. THESE UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY...BUT
THEREAFTER GUIDANCE DIVERGES CONSIDERABLY. THE ECZEMA KEEPS THE WEDGE
IN PLACE INTO THURSDAY BEFORE ERODING IT WITH WARMER AND SUNNIER
CONDITIONS...WHILE THE GFS BREAKS IT OUT ON WEDNESDAY.

KNOWING THAT GUIDANCE TENDS TO BREAK DOWN A WEDGE TOO QUICKLY...WILL
SHOW A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF IMPROVEMENT...KEEPING TEMPS RIGHT
AROUND NORMAL OR SLIGHTLY BELOW WEDNESDAY WITH CONTINUED LOW
CLOUDINESS...BEFORE A WARMUP REDEVELOPS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 12Z...ALL TERMINALS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE VALID
PERIOD. ENOUGH MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS AROUND
5K BUT OVERALL SUBSIDENCE SHOULD TEND TO KEEP ANY CLOUDS AT THIS
LEVEL SCT. SCT MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE THIS MORNING WITH NORTH WINDS
AROUND 10 KT...EXCEPT THE COASTAL TERMINALS COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS
OF 15-18 KT OR SO THROUGH MIDDAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN. WINDS GO
CALM EARLY THIS EVENING.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. EARLY MORNING FOG POSSIBLE ON MONDAY. MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL
DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE WEDGES INTO THE
CAROLINAS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 930 AM FRIDAY...STILL A LITTLE GUSTY ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
THIS MORNING WITH 41013 GUSTING UP TO 23 KNOTS. THIS HAS KICKED
THE SEAS BACK UP OVER SIX FEET. THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND
RESISTED THE TEMPTATION TO RAISE A SHORT FUSED SCEC HEADLINE.
OTHERWISE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.



SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND AS
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVERHEAD SATURDAY...AND THEN WELL OFFSHORE ON
SUNDAY. WINDS THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AS THE HIGH MOVES DIRECTLY OVER THE WATERS...CREATING A
DIFFUSE PRESSURE GRADIENT. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT
AND ON SUNDAY...SW WINDS OF 10-15 KTS WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE LIGHT WINDS WILL KEEP
WAVE HEIGHTS TO 2 FT OR LESS MOST OF SATURDAY...BUT AN INCREASE TO
2-3 FT IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AS THE SW WINDS RISE...AND AND A 10-11
SEC SE SWELL DEVELOPS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 AM FRIDAY...SW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS EXPECTED MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO RIDGE BACK TOWARDS THE WATERS. THIS
WILL KEEP MARINE CONDITIONS FAIRLY BENIGN...WITH A WEAK GROUND SWELL
AND LOW-AMPLITUDE SW WIND CHOP PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF
2-3 FT. DETERIORATION IS EXPECTED THEREAFTER THOUGH...AS A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA VERY EARLY TUESDAY...WITH A STRONG
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. THIS PRODUCES A
PINCHED GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS...AND WINDS WILL RAPIDLY VEER TO
THE NE AND BECOME 15-20 KTS...BEFORE EASING AT THE TAIL END OF THE
PERIOD. SEAS WILL BUILD ON THE GUSTY NE WINDS...BECOMING 4-6 FT FOR
A GOOD PORTION OF TUESDAY...AND AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR
MARINE...





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