Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 112053
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
353 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DA WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL SPREAD SOME PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY...WITH A WINTRY MIX LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL FOLLOW
FOR THE WEEKEND WITH RECORD LOWS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING. A WARMUP
WILL BEGIN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO NORMAL
VALUES BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL ON TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THE FLOW
AT THE MID LEVELS REMAINS FROM THE NORTHWEST. A STRONG SHORTWAVE
WILL DIVE TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST VERY LATE. THE GFS IS CONSISTENT WITH
ITS SLOWER SOLUTION AS IS THE NAM WITH THE FASTER VERSION. OVERALL
THIS NEAR TERM PERIOD SHOULD REMAIN POP FREE WITH ONLY INCREASING
CLOUD COVER LATE LEADING TO OVERCAST SKIES. GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 20S NORTH TO THE
LOWER AND EVEN MID 30S EXTREME SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...A WINTRY WEATHER EVENT IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA.
ONLY GEORGETOWN AND WILLIAMSBURG COUNTIES HAVE NOT BEEN INCLUDED IN
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. THE EVENT LOOKS TO BE
PRIMARILY ICE AS WHILE THE COLUMN IS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WINTRY
WEATHER...THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE STRUGGLES TO REMAIN
SIGNIFICANTLY MOIST. THAT BEING SAID...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND
COLDER AND WETTER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. HOWEVER...SOME SNOW AND ICE
PELLETS ARE EXPECTED TO AT LEAST MIX IN...ESPECIALLY EARLY ON.

RAIN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT WEATHER
TYPE BY AFTERNOON THROUGHOUT...EXCEPT ACROSS AN AREA FROM
BENNETTSVILLE...DILLON AND LUMBERTON TO ELIZABETHTOWN...WHITEVILLE
AND WATHA...WHERE WINTRY PRECIPITATION...MAINLY LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN...COULD HANG ON FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON AS GROUND TEMPS
STRUGGLE TO RISE SAFELY ABOVE FREEZING.

A RESPECTABLE WARM NOSE DOES DEVELOP...AROUND 6 DEG C. MODELS DO
SHOW A PRONOUNCED INVERSION THAT BECOMES SATURATED IN THE MORNING
AND REMAINS SO INTO THE AFTERNOON FROM ABOUT 1K TO 3K FT. BELOW THAT
LAYER...THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER STUBBORNLY TRIES TO HOLD ONTO THE DRY
AIR. MOISTURE DOES EXTEND THROUGH A DEEP LAYER...ALTHOUGH THE
MOISTURE DOES NOT PERSIST AND DRYING DOES ALREADY BEGIN TO DEVELOP
FROM SW TO NE FRI AFTERNOON.

LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SKIRTING TO OUR S TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. AS THE
LOW REACHES THE ATLANTIC...IT WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP MORE MOISTURE
AND WILL ALSO BEGIN TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN. INTENSIFICATION SHOULD
BECOME A LITTLE MORE ROBUST AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH THE SURFACE LOW LATER FRI AFTERNOON AND FRI NIGHT.
HOWEVER...BY THIS TIME...THE LOW WILL BE ACCELERATING TO THE ENE AND
AWAY FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THUS...WE ARE EXPECTING A LOW
QPF EVENT.

TEMPS WILL BE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...AND AS LOW AS THE MID 20S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER. GIVEN THE DRY AIR AND LOW DEWPOINTS...WET
BULB TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW THESE VALUES. ISENTROPIC
LIFT SHOULD HELP LIGHT PRECIPITATION BREAK OUT EARLY TO MID MORNING
FRI WHEN TEMPS WILL BE LOWEST. AS PRECIPITATION IS FALLING...
EVAPORATIVE COOLING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE MORE SLOWLY THEN
MODEL CONSENSUS...THUS KEEPING TEMPS ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA...NEAR
THE CRITICAL FREEZING MARK LONGER. WE DO EXPECT ALL AREAS WILL
EVENTUALLY RISE ABOVE FREEZING...MID 30S N AND W AND INTO THE 40S
S AND PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

JUST A TRACE OF ICE CAN MAKE FOR VERY SLIPPERY ROADWAYS AND
WALKWAYS. ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA...WE ARE FORECASTING A TRACE TO
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE. ACROSS THE NORTHERNMOST AREAS
THERE MAY ALSO BE A COATING OF SNOW AND SLEET...UP TO A TENTH OR TWO.

AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PULLS FURTHER AWAY...STRONG COLD ADVECTION
WILL COMMENCE IN WAKE OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURE AND PASSAGE OF AN
ARCTIC FRONT FRI NIGHT. THIS DOWNWARD TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH 850 MB TEMPS PLUMMETING TO MINUS
15 DEG C BY EARLY SUN MORNING. IT WILL BE DRY FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT
NIGHT...BUT THIS IS WHEN THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON THUS FAR WILL
REACH THE AREA. HIGHS SAT WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 30S IN MOST
LOCATIONS AND WHEN YOU FACTOR IN THE BLUSTERY NW WINDS...IT WILL
FEEL AS IF IT WERE ONLY IN THE 20S. THIS WILL BRING CONDITIONS TO
NEAR WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA AS IT WILL FEEL AS IF IT WERE
IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS.

RECORD LOWS/FORECAST FOR 2/14:

WILMINGTON: 18 (1968)/19

FLORENCE: 15 (1968)/17

NORTH MYRTLE BEACH: 17 (1955)/19

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...A VERY COLD DAY STARTING OFF WITH WIND
CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND AFTERNOON HIGHS NOT FAR EXCEEDING
THE FREEZING MARK ON SUNDAY AS 1035MB HIGH SLIDES INTO THE REGION.
FLOW TURNS ONSHORE AROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CLOUD COVER INCREASES SPARING THE REGION FROM GROWING
QUITE AS COLD. A VERY SMALL WEDGE OF THE HIGH REMAINS ON MONDAY
WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS. SOME GUIDANCE SHOWING SOME LIGHT
RAINFALL BUT STILL FEEL THOSE STILL MOISTENING THE ATMOSPHERE TOO
QUICKLY. SHOULD PRECIP DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING THERE MAY BE A LITTLE
WINDOW OF WINTRY PRECIP BEFORE TEMPS RISE ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS
FOR JUST RAIN. MUCH BETTER RAIN CHANCES COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH A STRONG UPPER LOW DRIVING SURFACE CYCLONE AND COLD
FRONT INTO THE REGION FOLLOWING A GOOD FEED OF GULF MOISTURE.
EASTERN U.S. TROUGHINESS FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM HAS A BIT OF A LOW
AMPLITUDE SO TEMPS LIKELY CLOSE TO CLIMO.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR CONDITION EXPECTED THROUGH 13 UTC AT ALL THE TAF
SITES.  AS AN LOW PRESSURE AREA PASSES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THE
CEILINGS WILL DROP AND A MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT IS EXPECTED AT
INLAND TAF SITES. A COLD RAIN IS EXPECTED AT KILM...KCRE...AND KMYR.
CEILING AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON A DOWNWARD
TREND AND BE BORDERLINE MVFR/IFR AFTER 13 UTC AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. PRECIPITATION AT KFLO AND KLBT IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW BUT AS WARM AIR ALOFT
MOVES QUICKLY OVERHEAD THE P-TYPE WILL BECOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
MAINLY AFTER 14 UTC.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...PREDOMINATELY VFR. UNSETTLED WEATHER ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...CONDITION`S ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY TRANQUIL OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS IS DUE TO A BENIGN PRESSURE PATTERN THAT HAS
DEVELOPED THIS MORNING. EXPECT WEST WINDS AROUND TEN KNOTS FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH THE DIRECTION TURNING FROM THE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT AS A BRIEF WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS. SPEEDS SHOULD
REMAIN AT TEN KNOTS OR BELOW. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL FROM 2-4
FEET THIS AFTERNOON TO 2-3 FEET FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM THURSDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL SKIRT JUST S OF THE
FORECAST AREA AND THEN MOVE INTO ATLANTIC AND ON AN ENE
TRAJECTORY...MOVING PROGRESSIVELY OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
FRI AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING LATE IN
DAY AND FRI NIGHT. ENE WINDS AROUND 10 KT FRI MORNING WILL BACK TO
NE AND N AND THEN NW BY FRI EVE WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 20 TO 25
KT BY SAT MORNING. NW TO NNW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SAT AND SAT NIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 2 TO 4 FT FRI AND TO
4 TO 5 FT FRI NIGHT. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 4 TO 7 FT SAT AND SAT
NIGHT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM THURSDAY...MODERATELY STRONG GRADIENT IN PLACE TO START
THE PERIOD BETWEEN BIG STORM OFF NEW ENGLAND COAST AND LARGE, CHILLY
HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. THIS GRADIENT WILL EASE
RATHER QUICKLY AS THE DAY WEARS ON AND NO HEADLINES OR ADVISORIES
ARE EXPECTED. VEERING EXPECTED ON MONDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE
MIDATLANTIC COASTLINE THOUGH A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH MAKING FOR
A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE WIND DIRECTION FORECAST. MONDAY NIGHT
BRINGS MARKED WIND INCREASE AS STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY APPEARS A LOCK AND THE NEED FOR A
GALE WARNING LOOKS POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 1230 PM THURSDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES YET ANOTHER
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY FOR THE CAPE FEAR RIVER
DOWNTOWN TONIGHT.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     SCZ017-024.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     SCZ023-032-033-053-054.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     NCZ087-096-099-105.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
     NCZ106>110.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
     FRIDAY FOR NCZ107.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SHK
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...RJD
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DRH
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SHK


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