Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 170217
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1017 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO
FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR DRY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT MAY BRIEFLY REACH 32 DEGREES FOR ISOLATED INLAND LOCATIONS
THAT ARE WIND PROTECTED. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR THE WEEKEND
AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS COASTAL LOW PRESSURE MOVES UP
ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM WEDNESDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND WAS WEDGING DOWN THE COAST AND ACROSS THE CAROLINAS THIS
EVE. THIS FEATURE WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS IS
AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SOME OF THE
TEMP GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT TEMPS COULD BOTTOM OUT AT OR NEAR
32 DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTHERNMOST ZONES OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE LOWS
WILL BE IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S.

THE REASON THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS NOT EXPECTING TEMPS AT OR
JUST BELOW FREEZING IS BECAUSE WE THINK WINDS WILL BE RELUCTANT TO
FULLY DECOUPLE FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER FOR A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
TIME. WINDS ABOVE 5 MPH WILL ALLOW FOR A SLIGHTLY BETTER MIXED
ENVIRONMENT WHICH WOULD PRECLUDE TEMPS FROM REALIZING THEIR LOWEST
POTENTIAL. THE LATEST ROUND OF THE COLDEST AVAILABLE TEMP GUIDANCE
DID COME IN A DEGREE OR SO HIGHER FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN MOST
LOCATIONS. THE VAST MAJORITY OF GUIDANCE IS NOT FORECASTING A FREEZE
FOR ANY PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA. THUS...NO FREEZE WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED. ARGUING AGAINST A FROST ARE THE ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS...
COMPARATIVELY WARM SOIL TEMPS...MID AND UPPER 50S AND DRYNESS OF THE
COLUMN. ISOLATED INLAND LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERNMOST ZONES THAT
ARE WIND PROTECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT COULD BRIEFLY REACH 32 DEGREES
WHERE POCKETS OF FROST MAY BRIEFLY DEVELOP.

CLEAR SKIES WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE EVE WITH SOME STRATOCUMULUS
ACROSS THE WATERS POSSIBLY ADVECTING ONSHORE IN TIGHTENING NE FLOW
OVERNIGHT.

RECORD LOWS FOR TONIGHT...LATEST FORECAST LOWS:
ILM...34...37
FLO...33...35
CRE...32...38


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...QUIET CONDITIONS WILL KICKOFF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REIGNS OVER THE AREA...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S ON THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY SOME DIURNAL CU
AS NOTED BY FCST SOUNDINGS. OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO FRIDAY WILL DIP IN
THE LOW TO MID 40S INLAND AND UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST.

A GRADUAL TRANSITION INTO THE NEXT WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS TO TAKE
SHAPE ON FRIDAY AS LATEST GUIDANCE FOCUSES ON A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EVOLVING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...SET TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE SUNSHINE
STATE AND MOVE OFFSHORE...CONTINUING ITS PROPAGATION AS A COASTAL
LOW BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG A STATIONARY BOUNDARY OFFSHORE.
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...ITS PROJECTED
PATH IN WHICH IT WILL POTENTIALLY AFFECT OUR AREA IS PAST THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. BUT...DO EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ON FRIDAY WITH THE AREA POSSIBLY SEEING LIGHT PRECIPITATION AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY MORNING. CHANCES INCREASE EVEN MORE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. AS FOR TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY...EXPECT
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO SATURDAY
MORNING AROUND 50.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER LOW WILL BE CROSSING
FLORIDA ON SATURDAY. AS IT DOES SO LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST...ELONGATED ALL THE DAY UP ALONG A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING TO OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. SATURDAY THUS
LOOKS FAIRLY UNSETTLED WITH HIGHEST RAINFALL CHANCES AND QPF
PROSPECTS ALONG THE COAST. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT
BETWEEN MODELS REGARDING THE SPEED AT WHICH THIS ALL TRANSLATES
EASTWARD. THIS SEEMS TO HINGE MOSTLY ON HOW CUT OFF THE UPPER WAVE
BECOMES. THE SEEMINGLY OPTIMISTIC GFS KEEPS THE SYSTEM FAIRLY OPEN
AND THUS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE IMPLYING DRYING AS SATURDAY
PROGRESSES. THE CMC REPRESENTS THE OPPOSITE END OF THE SPECTRUM IN
KEEPING THE SYSTEM CUTOFF AND FLINGING RAIN ASHORE THROUGH MONDAY.
CUTOFFS DO TEND TO MOVE SLOWER THAN PROGGED AND SO WILL START TO
LOWER TEMPS AND RAISE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AN IDEA
SUPPORTED BY THE 00Z ECMWF. THE 12Z EC LOOKS LIKE A GOOD
COMPROMISE...IT KEEPS PLENTY OF RAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
SATURDAY AND THEN DRYING SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL NOT GO AS HIGH WITH
RESPECT TO QPF THO AS THE EC OFTEN HAS A WET BIAS. MAY HAVE TO
SHOW QUITE A GRADIENT COASTAL VS INLAND SINCE THE WRF SHOWS A WELL
CUTOFF SYSTEM ALOFT BUT ALSO ALL OF THE MOISTURE SUPPRESSED TO OUR
SOUTH. BEYOND THE WEEKEND ATTENTION TURNS TO THE WEST. NEXT
WEATHER-MAKING SYSTEM TO BE AN UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 00Z...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING WITH
EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS 6-10 KTS. CLEAR CONDITIONS TONIGHT MAY GIVE WAY
TO INCREASING STRATOCU ALONG THE COAST EARLY THURSDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING AFTER 06Z...AND THERE
IS A CHANCE OF TEMPO MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING AT KILM/KCRE/KMYR AROUND
DAYBREAK. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS ONLY LOW TO MODERATE ATTM...SO
WILL KEEP PREVAILING VFR AT THESE SITES. SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE NORTHEASTERLY AFTER 06Z AND REMAIN AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH
DAYBREAK. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST ON THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE IS WEDGED INTO THE CAROLINAS. LOOK FOR SURFACE WINDS 10-15
KTS AND GUSTS OF 20 KTS DURING THE DAY. COULD SEE VFR CIGS DEVELOP
AT THE COASTAL TERMS BY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT AT LEAST PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS WELL AS INCREASED RAIN CHANCES MAINLY
ALONG THE COAST. LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR VFR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1000 PM WEDNESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR ALL
WATERS. A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
DOWN ACROSS THE CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW THE
PERSISTENT NE FLOW TO STRENGTHEN. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE AS HIGH AS 20
TO 25 KT. SEAS WILL BE AS HIGH AS 5 TO 8 FT. PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
WHERE THE FETCH IS SEVERELY LIMITED IN NE FLOW...SUCH AS LONG BAY...
WILL OBSERVE SEAS OF 2 FT OR LESS OVERNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO REIGN
OVER THE AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR NORTHEAST FLOW TO
PERSIST WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 10 TO 15 KTS AND SEAS 4 TO 6 FT. THUS
HAVE KEPT SCA THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR NOW...THOUGH MAY NEED TO
EXTEND EVEN FURTHER. ON FRIDAY SEAS CONTINUE TO DROP AND WINDS
DECREASE AHEAD OF OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW CROSSING FLORIDA ON SATURDAY
DEVELOPS LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS WILL MODERATELY
PINCH THE LOCAL GRADIENT. N TO NE WINDS RATHER GUSTY AND SHOULD
SPONSOR ADVISORY-WORTHY SEAS. THE MAIN FORECAST UNCERTAINTY PROBABLY
COMES ON SUNDAY. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN HOW MUCH OF THIS SETUP CAN
PROGRESS EAST AND LEAD TO WEAKENING WINDS AND DIMINISHED SEAS. FOR
NOW WILL SHOW THIS TREND BUT SOME MODELS ARE SLOWING IN DOING SO AND
WOULD IMPLY THAT FLAGS MAY LAST LONGER. WE KEEP OUR NORTHERLY
COMPONENT EVEN IF IN A DIMINISHED STATE COME MONDAY AS LOW WANDERS
OUT IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
CAROLINAS FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ250-252-
     254-256.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...SGL
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...BJR





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