Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 010745
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
340 AM EDT WED JUL 01 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL CREATE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...ALONG WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FRONT MAY STALL
TO OUR NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 1100 PM TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE HAS MOVED NE OF THE AREA AND
WITH THAT THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED. THUS...POPS
HAVE BEEN REMOVED...OR CUT TO SLIGHT CHANCE...MAINLY NEAR THE
COAST...WHERE A WEAK MESO-LOW MAY STILL SPARK A SHOWER BEFORE IT
MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA.

SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER AIR SHOULD HELP TO DIMINISH THE EXTENSIVE
CLOUD DEBRIS AS THE OVERNIGHT PROGRESSES.

LOWS WILL BE NEAR 70 FOR MANY INLAND AREAS TO THE MID 70S NEAR
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...

MID LEVEL FLOW LOOKS PRETTY ZONAL ON THURSDAY THOUGH A HEALTHY-FOR-
JULY SHORTWAVE DOES SLIDE BY TO OUR NORTH. MOST PLACES SHOULD WARM
INTO THE LOWER 90S BEFORE A SCATTERING OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION
DEVELOPS. ON FRIDAY THERE IS A SMALL BACKING IN THE MID LEVELS TO
WSW THOUGH THE OVERALL 1000-500 MB RH FIELDS IN BOTH THE GFS AND WRF
GO DOWN SLIGHTLY. SIMILARLY THERE IS NOT GOOD AGREEMENT IN HOW FAR
SOUTH A FRONT SAGS. THE WRF GETS THE BOUNDARY NEAR THE VA/NC BORDER
WHEREAS THE GFS KEEPS IT FURTHER NORTH AND ALLOWS A VERY HEALTHY
PIEDMONT TROUGH DEVELOPMENT. WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS
AREA-WIDE BUT SHOW HIGHER VALUES OVER NORTHERN ZONES IN DEFERENCE TO
THE WRF. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THOSE OF THURSDAY UNLESS
STORMS FIRE UP OVER NORTHERN ZONES EARLY ENOUGH TO DISRUPT THE
DIURNAL CURVE.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO STAY STALLED
CLOSE TO THE NC/VA BORDER OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS PAIRED WITH A
NEARLY STATIONARY PIEDMONT TROUGH AND WEAK SHORTWAVES COMING THROUGH
SUBTLY CYCLONICALLY CURVED MID LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR NORMAL
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE EACH AFTERNOON, IF NOT A BIT MORE. ALSO,
INSTABILITY MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS AS SLIGHTLY BREEZY
CONDITIONS SLOW THE DECOUPLING PROCESS AND THIS LINGERING
INSTABILITY `BENEFITS` FROM THE OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVE-INDUCED PVA FOR
LIFT. MODELS HONING IN ON AN INTERESTING POSSIBILITY MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY IN THAT THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MAY WEAKLY CUT OFF. TROUBLE IS
THEY SEEM TO THINK THE POSSIBILITIES OF WHERE THIS OCCURS RANGE FROM
GA TO PA. FAIR TO SAY THAT MID LEVEL TROUGHINESS AND CYCLONIC FLOW
WILL REMAIN AND RAIN CHANCES WILL STAY AT OR ABOVE THEIR SEASONABLE
NORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO BY BOTH
DAY AND NIGHT.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 06Z WEDNESDAY...PRECIP IS OVER FOR THE NIGHT. LITTLE TO NO FOG
EXPECTED WITH DECENT SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
WEDNESDAY...SHOULD BE A QUIETER DAY WITH MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT. ANY
CONVECTION AT ALL WILL PROBABLY BE ALONG THE RESULTANT JUST AFTER
MAX HEATING...BUT DO NOT EXPECT MUCH. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY ALONG THE COAST BY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MODERATE MOISTURE MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION WITH
MAINLY AFTERNOON CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1100 PM TUESDAY...A SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION
HEADLINE WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 AM FOR SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS UP TO 20 KT AND SEAS OF 4 TO 5 FT.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TOWARD MORNING AND
WITH THAT WINDS AND SEAS WILL DECREASE.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY...  THE DOMINANT WIND AND WAVE MAKER WILL BE
THE WEST ATLANTIC HIGH AND THUS WE EXPECT SWRLY FLOW AND AN AVERAGE
2-4 FT WAVE FORECAST. A FRONT MAY DROP AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NC/VA
BORDER ON FRIDAY THOUGH SOME GUIDANCE IS NOT SO CONVINCED AND
INSTEAD SHOWS A PIEDMONT TROUGH BEING THE MORE DOMINANT SURFACE
FEATURE. IF SO THEN SWRLY FLOW COULD BE BOLSTERED EVEN TO THE POINT
WHERE SOME FLAGS MAY BE NEEDED OVER MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES BEFORE THE
END OF THE PERIOD. SHOULD THIS FEATURE NOT GROW AS STRONG THEN THE
FLOW MAY NOT GROW MUCH STRONGER ON FRIDAY AND INSTEAD SLIGHTLY VEER
IN RESPONSE TO THE SAGGING YET DECELERATING BOUNDARY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

AS OF 3 AM WEDNESDAY... SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THE STRENGTH MAY BE MODULATED BY WHERE THE BOUNDARY
REFERENCED IN THE SHORT TERM STALLS. IT SEEMS PLAUSIBLE IT REMAINS
NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER. THE PIEDMONT TROUGH MAY ALSO WASH OUT OR
WEAKEN WHEN COMPARED TO ITS POSSIBLE STRENGTH LEADING UP TO THE
WEEKEND. AS SUCH NO FLAGS EXPECTED FOR THE LONG TERM.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
NEAR TERM...RJD
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...DL/RAN



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