Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 280602
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
202 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated showers are possible this evening as a weak upper
level disturbance passes across the region. High pressure will
continue to build over the area on Wednesday and slide off the
coast by the weekend. This will allow for the return of warm and
humid weather conditions with mainly afternoon and even
thunderstorms through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 940 PM Tuesday...Some very pleasant mid June weather expected
through the period. A large 1020+mb high will be moving east to our
north, crossing the Chesapeke Bay early tomorrow. The light N winds
on its southern periphery have advected some mid 60s dewpoint into
the region. Once mixing deepens tomorrow these values could fall
further into the upper 50s, which are not terribly common this time
of year. Tomorrow afternoon`s seabreeze should raise these values a
bit. Westerly mid level flow weakens through the period behind the
exting upper trough. Pair this with the dryness of the column and
cloud cover will be hard to come by.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 PM Tuesday...Cool temperatures persist Thursday but
slow warming will develop late in the period as ridging
amplifies offshore. Cool surface high across the Mid-Atlantic
will shift offshore Thursday allowing winds to shift from E to S
as return flow develops. 850mb temps recover slowly however,
remaining around 12- 14C Thursday aftn, so despite abundant
sunshine thanks to a very dry column (PWATs around 1 inch) highs
will be pleasant in the mid to upr 80s. As return flow develops
late Thursday and especially Thursday night, mid-level ridge
blossoms offshore while a piece of vorticity energy lifts NE
from the GoM across the Carolinas. Forecast soundings suggest
cloud cover increasing rapidly Thursday night, and a weak
surface trough may develop along the coast. This will bring
increasing rain chances late in the period, especially across SC
zones, but residual dry air will keep POP limited to 30 percent
or less for now. This cloud cover and southerly winds will keep
mins around 70 Thursday night, about 5 degrees warmer than the
cool Wednesday night to start this period.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Tuesday...Bermuda high pressure will be well
established with the trough of low pressure inland. Temperatures
will be gradually warming and the moisture will be increasing
with dew points in the 70s returning. Precipitable waters over
the weekend increase to 2 inches and this will bring the best
coverage for diurnal thunderstorms with slightly less coverage
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 06Z...VFR will prevail through the period as high pressure to
the northwest shifts east today and tonight. Very dry air will
prevent any significant cloud cover. Light winds will gradually veer
from northerly this morning to easterly by the end of the period.

Extended Outlook...Flight restrictions possible in thunderstorms
Saturday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 940 PM Tuesday...

Minimal conditions compliments of high pressure well to our north
and west progressing eastward across VA (winds as low as 4kt all the
way out at 41013!). A small secondary high offshore is currently
keeping wind light and variable but as it washes out overnight the
high to our north will become the main wind-maker. A general E to NE
flow is expected to dominate by morning.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM
Tuesday...High pressure migrating off the Mid-Atlantic coast
Wednesday night will take up position offshore during Thursday. This
allows winds to shift slowly through the period from E Wednesday
night, around to the S by Thursday night. As the high pressure
remains dominant, the pressure gradient will be weak so wind speeds
will just be around 10 kts regardless of direction. Although winds
will be light, lack of a meaningful ground swell will allow a 6 sec
wave to be predominant in the spectrum producing 2-3 ft seas across
the waters.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 3 PM Tuesday...Bermuda high pressure will be established
over the waters with winds shift from the south at 10 knots and
shifting to the southwest at 10 to 15 knots. Seas will range
between 2 to 3 feet Friday and Saturday and 3 to 4 feet on
Sunday,

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RAN
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...DRH
AVIATION...III



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