Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 282108
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
408 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE AREA TONIGHT...MOVING
OVERHEAD ON THURSDAY...AND THEN OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS. DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THIS COLD
FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...A COLD AND STAR FILLED SKY EXPECTED
TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 10-12 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE JANUARY. WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMN FROM THE SURFACE
UPWARD WILL ABATE AS HIGH PRESSURE LOW-LEVEL AND ALOFT MIGRATE
OVER NE SC AND SE NC DAYBREAK THURSDAY. THIS WILL PROMOTE AN
EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SET-UP...WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
AT FIRST LIGHT THURSDAY RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20 ACROSS
MOST OF OUR INLAND SITES...AND UPPER 20S TO AROUND 30 COASTAL
LOCALS. UPSTREAM THIN CIRRUS WILL MAKE A RUN AT THE FORECAST AREA
INTO THE PRE-DAWN WITH MINIMAL IF ANY IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURE
CURVES AS MUCH OF THIS WILL LIKELY EVAPORATE ON APPROACH
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVERHEAD ON
THURSDAY...BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAVE A
SEASONABLE DAY ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY...BUT MID/HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES.
STILL...CONSIDERABLE SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED...AND TEMPS WILL RISE TO
JUST BELOW SEASONABLE VALUES WITH LOW 50S EXPECTED FOR HIGHS. AS THE
SURFACE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE...A BRIEF PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW WILL
DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT...JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL CROSS
OFFSHORE BY FIRST THING FRIDAY. MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE IS LIMITED...BUT SOUNDINGS INDICATE INCREASING MOISTURE JUST
AHEAD OF THE FROPA. SREF PROBABILITIES FOR 0.01 INCHES ARE QUITE
LOW...AND FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AS THE MOUNTAINS WILL
LIKELY "STEAL" MUCH OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY.
INHERITED HAS SCHC LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WILL MAINTAIN THIS POP
BUT WITH JUST-ABOVE MENTIONABLE VALUES...HIGHEST AT THE COAST. QPF
WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. MINS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE HELD UP INTO THE
UPR 30S/LOW 40S THANKS TO CLOUDS AND SW FLOW.

COLD FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE FIRST THING FRIDAY MORNING...BUT COLD
ADVECTION LAGS WELL BEHIND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. THIS LEAVES A SUNNY
DAY ON FRIDAY...WITH TEMPS VERY SIMILAR TO THAT ON THURSDAY. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE DIVES SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES...AND LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP WELL INTO THE 20S
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...INITIALLY THE MID LEVEL PATTERN WILL
FEATURE A BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST WITH A RETREATING TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY TO A POSITION OFFSHORE BY LATE SUNDAY. BY LATER SUNDAY A
STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THAT QUICKLY
MOVES OFFSHORE BY LATE MONDAY. WITH THE QUICK MOVEMENT AND LITTLE
IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...CHANCES FOR A
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT HAVE DECREASED SLIGHTLY. I DID MAINTAIN THE
LIKELY POPS FOR OVERNIGHT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING BUT QPF COULD
BE LIMITED SOMEWHAT. BEYOND THIS TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY...MONDAY
MAY BE DRY AS WELL ALTHOUGH CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE POPS DUE TO THE
SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION. I ALSO INTRODUCED POPS FOR WEDNESDAY AS THE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FINALLY GETS KICKED OUT MOVING SWIFTLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE FORECAST/TRENDS
WHICH WILL BE QUITE CHANGEABLE BUT MOSTLY BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...VFR WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE VALID
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL EXPAND INTO THE
CAROLINAS TODAY...KEEPING US CLOUD-FREE WITH NORTH WINDS AROUND 10
KT. COULD SEE A FEW HIGHER GUSTS ALONG THE COAST IN THE EARLY AFTN
HOURS...BUT BY SUNSET WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT/CALM AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES OVERHEAD. THE AIR MASS IS FAR TOO DRY FOR ANY FOG CONCERNS
OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OFFSHORE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE THU/EARLY FRI...
OTHERWISE VFR WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. SHOWERS/MVFR LIKELY
LATE SUN THROUGH MON MORNING...THEN BECOMING VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...MODERATELY BUMPY CONDITIONS MUCH OF
TODAY WILL BEGIN TO SETTLE A BIT TONIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
WEST EDGES CLOSER TO THE 0-20 NM WATERS. 15-20 KT WINDS...2-4 FT
SEAS WILL ABATE TO 10-15 KT...2-3 FT OVERNIGHT. SEAS A COMBINATION
OF A MODERATE BUT WANING N-NNE CHOP RUNNING EVERY 4-5 SECONDS AND
A BIT OF LONGER PERIOD BACK SWELL FROM THE NE STORM RUNNING IN
LONGER WAVE PERIODS OF 12-13 SECONDS. SINCE WINDSPEEDS WILL BE
LOWER INSHORE COMPARED TO OFFSHORE...SHORTER WAVE PERIODS WILL
REMAIN DOMINANT OFFSHORE...WHILE NEAR-SHORE THE LONGER PERIOD
WAVES WILL BE THE HIGHER WAVE ENERGY. NO TSTMS OR RESTRICTIONS TO
VISIBILITY OVER THE 0-20 NM WATERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS
ON THURSDAY...BEFORE PUSHING OFFSHORE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL CROSS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS LEAVES LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS MOST OF THURSDAY...BUT A GRADUAL SW WIND WILL
DEVELOP AND INCREASE IN SPEED TO 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
THIS FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS BY FRIDAY MORNING...AND FRIDAY WILL
BE A GUSTY DAY AS NW WINDS OF AROUND 20 KTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL BE HIGHEST IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...WHEN 3-5 FT WAVE HEIGHTS WILL BE COMMON. OTHERWISE
EXPECT JUST 1-3 FT THURSDAY...AND 2-4 FT FRIDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
WAVE PERIODS WILL BE QUITE SHORT ON FRIDAY HOWEVER.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A
NORTHERLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THE HIGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY AND BE
OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS COMMENCING. SPEEDS
WILL BE MOSTLY TEN KNOTS OR LESS DURING THIS TIME. A DECENT COLD
FRONT APPROACHES LATE SUNDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KNOTS
AND TURNING TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE
WATERS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY INCREASING APPRECIABLY LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE
WINDS. PROBABLY SEE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JDW
NEAR TERM...MJC
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...BJR
MARINE...MJC/JDW/SHK







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