Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 170630
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
230 AM EDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Canadian high pressure building into the Mid-Atlantic states
today will bring several days of cool, dry weather to the
Carolinas. Temperatures should begin to warm up this weekend as
the high moves off the coast.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Tuesday...A somewhat potent mid level trough continues to move
eastward this morning as high pressure, centered across the
Tennessee Valley continues to build in. Some high level moisture
will continue to stream across the area for the next few hours, but
that should be about it. Soundings are very dry and do not support
any kind of thin convective clouds later today. So its high and dry
through the period. Highs today, with guidance tightly clustered
should be in the upper 60s. Wednesday`s lows with still some
boundary level wind to contend with especially eastern areas should
be in the middle to lower 40s slightly higher southernmost
areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Tuesday...Classic fall weather will remain in
place Wednesday and Thursday across the Carolinas. The mid and
upper level flow should be northwesterly as a 700-500 mb ridge
develops across the lower Mississippi Valley. Subsidence
downstream of this ridge should support a surface high across
the Mid-Atlantic states and a well-defined subsidence inversion
across the Carolinas. The only potential for cloud cover
through the period appears to be Wednesday night or early
Thursday as some thin maritime stratocumulus developing just
beneath that subsidence inversion could approach the coast. As
the surface high sinks southward later Thursday and Thursday
night any clouds should get squashed back offshore.

Models are in good agreement with highs (71-73 Wednesday and
75-77 Thursday) but only in fair agreement with lows given
differences in low-level winds and their impact on the strength
of the nighttime radiational inversion near the coast. My
forecast is on the low end of MOS guidance, especially near the
coast Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 PM Monday...It will remain high and dry through much
of the period as one area of high pressure slips off the
northeast coast and another one takes hold over the Southeast.
Will maintain a northerly flow throughout much of the period.
The pcp water values remain down near a half inch Fri with a
slight rise as winds come around to a more easterly direction
Sat aftn. Any clouds or pcp over the waters should remain off
shore as winds stay parallel to the coast through Saturday, but
as coastal trough develops Sat night into Sunday may see greater
potential for clouds along the coast and some pcp, mainly over
coastal SC. At this time the pcp water begins to increase as
moisture profiles show an increase in shallow moisture below 4k
ft Sat night into Sun and increase in potential for higher
clouds through Sunday. The moisture returns just beyond the long
term period when a deep southerly return flow develops heading
into Monday as coastal trough/warm front pushes on shore and
north.

The temps will warm through the period as air mass modifies and
winds come around to a more easterly direction allowing for some
moisture return off at the low levels. Min temps within a few
degrees of 50 Fri night will end up around 60 by early next
week. Max temps will make a return to 80 or above over the
weekend. Overall temps will be running above normal once again.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 06Z...Expect VFR conditions through the period. There
will continue to be some mid and high level cloud cover moving
across the area for the next several hours but it should have
little impact on aviation concerns. Wind gusts are starting to
abate as well. Tuesday should be mostly cloud free as the
profile is too dry for even thin convective clouds that
sometimes accompany cold air advection.

Extended Outlook...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Tuesday...Strong small craft conditions still
reside across the waters as expected. 41013 is reporting
sustained winds near 30 knots and seas are between 6-9 feet at
the buoys. Winds should decrease gradually through the period
ending up at 15-20 knots from the northeast by Wednesday
morning. Seas will follow suite but still remain elevated by the
end of the period with small craft conditions continuing.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 300 AM Tuesday...High pressure will remain situated
across the Mid- Atlantic states through the period. This should
maintain a 15-20 kt northeasterly wind across our coastal waters
Wednesday and Wednesday night. By Thursday night the center of
the high will begin to sag into North Carolina, reducing the
pressure gradient across the area and allowing wind speeds to
fall to only 10 knots or so. Winds and seas will probably remain
high enough for the Small Craft Advisory to remain posted
through the day Wednesday.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM Monday...Winds will become more easterly over the
weekend. The northerly surge will abate as winds diminish as
well, allowing for seas to subside to 2 to 4 ft Fri and Sat.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 300 PM Monday...Astronomical tides are increasing as we
approach a new moon. This coupled with strong NE winds, may
breach minor coastal flooding thresholds at Wrightsville Beach
beginning today, and advisories may be needed along portions of
the coast the next several days. The same will be true of the
lower Cape Fear including the downtown Wilmington area.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for SCZ054-056.
NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for NCZ106-108.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ250-252-
     256.
     Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for AMZ254.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...SHK
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...RGZ
AVIATION...SHK



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