Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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000
FXUS62 KILM 062118 AAA
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
315 PM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A GRADUAL MODERATING TREND WILL GET UNDERWAY OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
AMPLE SUNSHINE. CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES RETURN ON MONDAY AS A FRONT
STALLS NEAR THE REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...1037MB ARCTIC HIGH HAS SETTLED OVER EASTERN
CONUS. GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE HIGH SLOWLY DROPPING
SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS OVER THE NEAR TERM...WITH SKIES
CONTINUING TO CLEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST AS DRYER AIR ADVECTS IN. OUR
INLAND COUNTIES CONTINUE TO ENJOY SUNNY SKIES THIS AFTERNOON WHILE
CLOUD COVER OVER OUR COASTAL COUNTIES IS GRADUALLY ERODING AWAY.
THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS...LEAVING US WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLACKEN AS THE HIGH MOVES OVERHEAD. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON WE WILL CONTINUE UNDER A COLD ADVECTIVE REGIME THAT WILL
CAP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S DESPITE AMPLE SUNSHINE.
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO GOOD RADIATIVE
COOLING CONDITIONS AND ONE MORE HARD FREEZE...WITH MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...WITH FULL SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES SHOULD MANAGE TO ATTAIN VALUES SOME 10 DEGREES HIGHER
THAN THOSE OBSERVED TODAY...ALBEIT STILL SOME 10 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMATOLOGY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ELONGATED WEST-EAST ALONG
THE GULF COAST WHILE LOCAL MID LEVEL FLOW IS OUT OF THE WEST. NOT
MUCH CHANGES SATURDAY NIGHT SO WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
TEMPS END UP BEING COOLER THAN NORMAL BUT ONLY BY ABOUT 5 DEGREES.
SOLAR MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS CONTINUES ON SUNDAY BUT IT SHOULD BE
BOLSTERED BY SOME WEAK WARM ADVECTION. SUNDAY SHOULD BE A PLEASANT
AFTERNOON WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS AND A FEW STREAKS OF CIRRUS CLOUDS.
THIS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MAY DEEPEN DOWN INTO THE MID LEVELS SUNDAY
NIGHT BRINGING SEASONABLY MILD LOW TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...LONGWAVE UPPER PATTERN TO CHANGE THIS PERIOD.
LOOKING AT THE JET STREAM TO SPLIT INTO 2 DISTINCT ENTITIES...A
NORTHERN STREAM AND A SOUTHERN STREAM. THE NORTHERN STREAM TO
RETREAT TO THE NORTH...WITH THE MAIN BRUNT OF THE POLAR/ARCTIC AIR
MASSES TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN 1/3RD OF THE UNITED STATES DURING THIS
UPCOMING TIME PERIOD. MODELS INDICATE THEY WANT TO EXTEND THE
RIDGING FROM 1 OR 2 OF THESE POLAR/ARCTIC HIGHS DOWN THE EAST COAST
RESULTING IN WEAK WEDGING ON TUE...AND AGAIN ON FRI. THAT MEANS THE
SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BASICALLY CONTROL THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF THE
U.S. WHICH INCLUDES THE ILM CWA. RIGHT OFF...THIS MEANS TEMPS ACROSS
THE ILM CWA WILL RETURN TO ATLEAST THEIR CLIMO NORMS FOR THIS TIME
OF THE YEAR.

THE FLOW ALOFT UNFORTUNATELY TAPS INTO GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE AND
STREAMS IT ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...MAINLY DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD OF NEXT WEEK. MODELS ALSO INDICATE THEY WANT TO EXTEND THE
RIDGING FROM THESE ARCTIC HIGHS DOWN THE EAST COAST RESULTING IN A
WEAK SFC WEDGE ON TUE...AND A BIT STRONGER ONE DURING FRI. THE
POSITIONING AND MOVEMENT OF THE COASTAL FRONT OR TROF WILL BE OF
SIGNIFICANCE TO THE ILM CWA. MEANING...IT WILL HAVE A PROFOUND
AFFECT ON TEMPS AND THE CONCENTRATION AND AMOUNT OF PCPN. FOR NOW
HAVE INDICATED OVERRUNNING TYPE OF CLOUDINESS THRUOUT MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD. IN ADDITION...A SLIGHT TO MODERATE CHANCE FOR LIGHT PCPN.
AS FOR TEMPS...THE CLOUDS AND PCPN WILL KEEP MAX/MIN TEMPS LIMITED
AND WITHIN A LOW NOCTURNAL RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...SOME LEFTOVER STRATOCU...POST FRONTAL. MOST OF THE
CLOUDS WILL BE OUT OF HERE THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO
DRIFT SOUTHWARD. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. CONTINUE LIGHT WINDS ON
SATURDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE MOVES OVER US. QUITE THE NICE DAY
ACTUALLY...ALBEIT A COLD START.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH INCREASING MOISTURE MONDAY NIGHT.
POSSIBLE IFR/MVFR CONDITION WITH PRECIP TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH DROPS
SOUTH TOWARDS THE AREA. BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONS...TRENDS AND
GUIDANCE HAVE DROPPED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR SC WATERS IN
FAVOR OF EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES. RETAINING THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR OUR NC WATERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
HOWEVER...WITH WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS AND SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT THAT ALL HEADLINES
WILL BE DROPPED BY MIDNIGHT.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...VERY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SHORT
TERM PERIOD. N TO NE WINDS ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE IS ELONGATED
WEST TO EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST. AS THE DAY WEARS ON THIS HIGH
WILL ELONGATE FURTHER EAST INTO THE CAROLINAS AND JUST ABOUT SHUT
DOWN THE GRADIENT FOR A TIME BEFORE A LIGHT S TO SW FLOW TAKES OVER
NORTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS. ON SUNDAY THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN CENTERED
WELL TO OUR WEST WHILE ANOTHER CENTER BECOMES DEFINED WELL OFFSHORE.
THIS LEAVES A VERY WEAK GRADIENT LOCALLY FOR MINIMAL WIND AND SEAS.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM FRIDAY...CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND OFFSHORE DURING MON THRU TUE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A WEAK WEDGE SCENARIO WITH A COASTAL TROF LYING JUST OFF
THE CAROLINA COASTS. THE RIDGING...IE. WEDGE...TO BREAK DOWN RATHER
QUICKLY BY LATE TUE AS THE SOURCE OF THE COOL AIR...THE CENTER OF
THE SFC HIGH...MOVES WELL OFFSHORE FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
WEAK SFC LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COASTAL TROF...AND TRACK NE AWAY
FROM THE LOCAL WATERS BY LATE TUE NIGHT. THE SFC PRESSURE PATTERN
AND RATHER LOOSE AND BENIGN PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ONLY PRODUCE
WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS. SIGNIFICANT SEAS WILL BASICALLY RUN 3 FEET
OR LESS...POSSIBLY UP TO A FOOT OR 2 HIER IN THE VICINITY OF THE
COASTAL TROF. A 7 TO 9 SECOND EASTERLY GROUND SWELL WILL DOMINATE
THE SEAS SPECTRUM AT TIMES.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...NONE.
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ250-
     252-254-256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MBB
NEAR TERM...REK
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...DCH
AVIATION...DL











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