Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 301005
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
605 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
CAUSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S OVER SOUTHWEST
MICHIGAN TO THE LOWER 80S OVER NORTHWEST OHIO AND NORTHEAST
INDIANA WITH LOWS TONIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 40S OVER SOUTHERN
MICHIGAN TO THE UPPER 50S OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS OF INDIANA AND
OHIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

UPR LEVEL TROF OVER THE NRN PLAINS THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO MOVE
E-SE TO WI/IL BY SUNDAY MORNING. ASSOCIATED SFC CDFNT SHOULD DROP SE
ACROSS OUR CWA TODAY WITH VORT MAX/SFC WAVE OVER ARKANSAS LIFTING NE
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA TONIGHT. GENERALLY WK INSTABILITY EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AS SHOWERS/CLOUD COVER LIMIT HEATING HWVR
MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP SE PORTION OF CWA WHERE FROPA WILL
HOLD OFF TIL THIS EVE. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME STORMS WITH STRONG
GUSTY WINDS... THOUGH EXPECT ALL WILL REMAIN BLO SVR LEVELS GIVEN
LACK OF SGFNT DEEP LAYER SHEAR. POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
AS SOME TRAINING OF ECHOES IN WARM/MOIST AIRMASS PSBL ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TODAY AND EXTENSIVE POST FRONTAL RAINFALL ASSOCIATED
WITH UPR LEVEL JET DYNAMICS/MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE TONIGHT.
00Z MODELS HAVE HEAVY QPF IN OUR AREA BUT DIFFER ON LOCATION.
PREFER NAM/ECMWF WITH HEAVIEST RAINFALL AXIS CLOSER TO FRONT
ACROSS NE INDIANA/SE MICHIGAN TONIGHT AS OPPOSED TO FARTHER NW
AXIS FCST BY GFS. IT HAS BEEN RATHER DRY ACROSS OUR AREA RECENTLY
AND RIVER FLOWS GENERALLY RUNNING BLO NORMAL IN OUR CWA SO WHILE
SOME FLOODING MAY BE PSBL OVER THE NEXT 24HRS... CONFIDENCE NOT
HIGH ENOUGH ATTM TO ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH. HIGHS TODAY EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM THE L70S NW TO THE L80S SE... WITH TEMPS FALLING AFTER
FROPA... ESPECIALLY NW WITH SOME LAKE MICHIGAN ENHANCEMENT OF THE
CDFNT. WAVE RIDING ALONG FRONT TONIGHT SHOULD TEMPER CAA WITH LOWS
FCST TO RANGE FROM THE U40S NW TO THE U50S SE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 429 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

ENERGY CURRENTLY OVER ARKANSAS WILL EJECT SLOWLY NORTHEAST INTO THE
UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY MORNING. DEEPENING SFC WAVE WILL BE
MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY WITH AN AREA OF RAIN ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE TRACK. WHILE MODELS DO VARY ON POSITIONING OF
REMNANTS OF WHAT SHOULD BE A RATHER LARGE AREA OF
RAIN/RAINSHOWERS...THEY AT LEAST HAVE COME INTO SUFFICIENT AGREEMENT
TO NUDGED POPS UPWARDS MAINLY SE AND NE SUNDAY MORNING. BAROCLINIC
ZONE MAY BE SLOW TO SHIFT SE THROUGH THE DAY SO HAVE LEFT CHC POPS
IN SE AREAS INTO THE AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THE MODELS ATTEMPT TO BRING
MORE THAN AN INCH OF QPF SUNDAY MORNING TO SOME SPOTS. WITH PWATS
SLOWLY DECREASING AND SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE NATURE MODELS HAVE LEANED
TOWARDS MORE SUBDUED QPF GRIDS FROM SUPERBLEND OF MODELS. WITH THE
EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL...MODEL GUIDANCE TANKED HIGHS BACK
INTO THE 50S IN SOME SPOTS NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK. TREND HAS BEEN
COLDER AND WILL CONTINUE IT AS A SLIGHTLY FASTER PACE. THIS COMBINED
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL MAKE FOR A BLUSTERY END TO MAY.

UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL DIVE OUT OF CANADA INTO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES AND PHASES WITH REMNANTS OF UPPER OHIO VALLEY ENERGY. THIS
WILL KEEP COOL CONDITIONS IN PLACE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH BELOW
NORMAL HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S. INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION FOR THE
MIDDLE AND LATTER PARTS OF THE WEEK. MODELS STILL ATTEMPTING TO
DEVELOP SHOWERS HERE AND THERE THURS INTO FRIDAY BUT NO REAL CLEAR
SIGNALS AT THIS TIME FOR MORE FOCUSED CHANCES AS WHAT DOES DEVELOP
MAY BE DIURNALLY BASED. WILL STICK WITH SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS FOR THE
TIME BEING WITH TEMPERATURES BACK NEAR/ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT) ISSUED
AT 603 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

LARGE AREA OF SHRA AND ISOLATED TS ACROSS IL/NW INDIANA MAKING
SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS AHEAD OF SLOW MOVG FRONT/UPR TROF OVER THE UPR
MIDWEST/PLAINS. SHRA SHOULD IMPACT KSBN WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE DAY...LOWERING TO IFR TONIGHT AS A WAVE MOVES NE ALONG
THE FRONT. SHRA SHOULD BE MORE SCT ACROSS NE INDIANA TODAY
ALLOWING FOR BETTER DESTABILIZATION... SETTING THE STAGE FOR TSRA
THIS AFTN. THIS TOO SHOULD TRANSITION TO STEADY RAIN WITH IFR
CONDITIONS THIS EVE AS CDFNT PASSES AND ARKANSAS VORT MAX LIFTS
INTO CENTRAL INDIANA.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
     SUNDAY EVENING FOR INZ003.

MI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
     SUNDAY EVENING FOR MIZ077.

OH...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JT
SHORT TERM...JT
LONG TERM...FISHER
AVIATION...JT


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