Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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FXUS63 KIWX 242343

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
743 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2016

Issued at 256 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2016

An upper level ridge will provide dry conditions through Sunday.
Lows tonight will fall into the lower 50s to around 60. Highs
on Sunday will range from the mid 70s to lower 80s. Chances for
rain showers return Sunday night into Monday morning, with breezy
and cooler weather expected behind a strong cold front Monday into


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 254 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2016

Upstream soundings showed moisture trapped under the base of a large
subsidence inversion with a cool east flow in the low levels. Lake
clouds with possibly some light lake enhanced showers were moving
southwest across Lake Erie toward northwest Ohio early this
afternoon. The strength of the inversion will greatly limit any
showers; therefore do not expect them to reach the forecast area.
However, clouds may linger well into this evening over portions of
northwest Ohio. Otherwise, skies should continue to clear overnight
with temperatures dropping well into the 50s. Highs Sunday should be
mostly in the 70s with an east to southeast flow. There is a small
chance for a shower near the Illinois border late in the day as a
front approaches.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 254 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2016

A fairly vigorous upper trof will become negatively tilted Sunday
night and will trigger a round of showers and scattered storms as
the system and associated front move east. Precipitable water values
per BUFKIT will top 2.0 inches as a narrow axis of moisture spreads
north ahead of the front. The ongoing timing of the showers and
storms appears on track for a mainly Sunday night event. The chances
for severe storms appears given very limited instability; however,
low level shear should reach 25 m/s.

Chilly air will spread south behind this system with temperatures
below normal toward the middle of the week. Very warm lake
temperatures will favor lake enhancement of showers Wednesday as
delta T values approach or exceed 15C.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday Evening)
Issued at 719 PM EDT Sat Sep 24 2016

VFR conditions expected to prevail through the TAF period across
northern Indiana. Sufficient low level flow to draw lower surface
dewpoints overnight and should help to prevent daybreak br
formation. Otherwise veering mid level flow to gradually bring
increase in cloud cover through the forecast period.




SHORT TERM...Skipper
LONG TERM...Skipper

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