Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Northern Indiana

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000
FXUS63 KIWX 240935
AFDIWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
535 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 1255 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

TODAY INTO THIS WEEKEND WILL FEATURE MAINLY DRY AND MILD
CONDITIONS. A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS TODAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY AND SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...WITH SATURDAY LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE
MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FRACTURED MID LEVEL TROUGH/MOISTURE AXIS WITH LITTLE/NO REFLECTION
IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL TRANSLATE EAST THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. ASSOCIATED WEAK SUPPORT FROM A VORT MAX
(SHOWING UP OVER SRN LAKE MI ON MORNING WATER VAPOR) AND THINNING
CORRIDOR OF 850 MB MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE A FEW SPOTTY
LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES INTO MAINLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA
THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE ONLY IMPACT WILL BE SLOW EWD PROGRESSION
OF A BKN/OVC LOW CLOUD DECK. MODEST HEIGHT RISES/SUBSIDENCE IN
WAKE OF THIS WEAK TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW CLOUDS TO MIX/SCATTER OUT A
BIT LATER TODAY...WITH AFTN HIGHS EXPECTED TO RECOVER INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S (DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER).

A RATHER STRONG SHORTWAVE AND DEEPENING SFC LOW WILL EMERGE FROM A
PAC NW/SW CANADA 150+ KT UPPER JET AND TRACK INTO ONTARIO AND THE
NRN LAKES BY LATER TONIGHT. THE FOLD OVER OF A MORE PRONOUNCED
LOW-MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM COLD FRONT WILL
RESULT IN A MILD NIGHT FOR LATE OCT STANDARDS. COULD ALSO SEE ISO
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES AND STRATUS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT GIVEN MODEST
925-850 MB WAA SURGE...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE/PROBABILITY IN ANY
MEASURABLE PCPN REMAINS TOO LOW FOR A MENTIONABLE POP GIVEN LACK OF
HEIGHT FALLS AND UNFAVORABLE POSITION IN RIGHT EXIT REGION OF A SRN
CANADA TO NRN LAKES UPPER JET.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SYS OF NOTE FOR THIS PD LIES OUT NR 140W THIS MORNING AND WILL TURN
INLAND ALG THE WEST COAST EARLY SAT. DOWNSTREAM FLW AND PERTURBATION
STREAKING THROUGH JAMES BAY CONTS TO OSCILLATE IN SOME DEGREE AMG
MODEL SOLUTIONS WHICH AS YET CONTS TO YIELD SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
REGARD TO TEMPS MAINLY SUNDAY. 00Z SUITE AS A WHOLE MUCH MORE
SUBDUED W/BACKDOOR CDFNT SAT NIGHT AND INDICATE ROBUST LL WAA DVLPG
BY AFTN. THUS IN NOD OF GEFS AGREEMENT AND DECIDED UPWARD TREND SEE
NO REASON TO NOT BUMP SUN TEMPS UP HIGHER AGAIN.

W/PROGRESSIVE PATTN ALOFT IN PLACE WRN SYS QUICKLY AMPLIFIES NEWD
INTO CNTRL ONTARIO TUE AS TRAILING SHARP CDFNT BURSTS EAST. LL
THERMAL RIDGE AHD OF THIS FTR QUITE STG W/CORE OF 16-18C H85 TEMPS
NOSING INTO THE SRN LAKE MON. EVEN A CONSERVATIVE MIX DOWN FM H9
PORTENDS ADDNL UPWARD HEADROOM LIKELY AND SEEMS PRUDENT TO USE
WARMEST GUIDANCE BLEND PSBL. SIG LL MSTR/THETA-E SURGE WITHIN BROAD
LLJ W/WRN GOMEX ORIGINS FOLLOWS MON NIGHT/TUE AHD OF EWD SURGING
CDFNT. GIVEN FVRBL THETA-E RIDGING LT MON NIGHT AND MODEST MASS MSTR
FLUX NW THIRD ADDED A SLGT CHC POP FOR SHRA W/TSRA PSBL AS WHATS
LEFT OF PLAINS EML ADVTS OVERHEAD. OTRWS GIST OF PRIOR TUE FCST
HOLDS W/HIGHER POPS WARRANTED AT LEAST FOR WRN HALF IN PROXIMITY TO
TAIL END OF GREATER GLANCING HGT FALLS.

VIGOROUS DRY SLOT WRAPS EWD TUE NIGHT AND CUT POPS SUBSTANTIALLY
THROUGH EVENING AND ALTOGETHER LATE AS FNTL BNDRY IS CLRG THE EAST
COAST AT THAT TIME. RIDGING AND SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS XPCD IN WAKE
OF THIS SYS WED-FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 535 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

NARROWING MOISTURE CHANNEL ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN INDIANA THIS MORNING INTO
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH MVFR-LOW VFR CIGS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY
THIS TROUGH AXIS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE DIURNAL MIXING
AND SUBSIDENCE SCATTERS STRATOCU DECK OUT BY LATER IN THE DAY.
VORT MAX EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SHEARING TROUGH OVER SRN LAKE MI HAS
ALLOWED A FEW SHOWERS/SPRINKLES TO DEVELOP WEST OF KFWA AS OF THIS
WRITING. MAY NEED TO ADD A VCSH MENTION AT TAF ISSUANCE...ALTHOUGH
NOT EXPECTING ANY IMPACT FROM THIS ACTIVITY REGARDLESS.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...STEINWEDEL
SHORT TERM...STEINWEDEL
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...STEINWEDEL


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