809
FXUS63 KIWX 071729
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
129 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms are likely mid afternoon into mid evening. The
  primary threat with any severe storms that occur include damaging
  winds, large hail, and a few tornadoes. Confidence is high.

- Isolated strong to severe storms are possible again Wednesday evening,
  mainly south of US 24. Localized heavy rain and flooding is the primary
  threat but a few storms could contain hail. Confidence is low.

- Cooler with chances for showers later this week into the weekend.
  Highs Friday into Sunday will be in the 60s. Otherwise temperatures
  will warm back into the mid 60s to mid 70s next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 125 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

Post convective outflow bubble from this morning sharpening
effective warm frontal zone from nrn IL esewd through cntrl IN
and into wrn OH. This will mix further north into evening over
nrn IN and will yield a certain tornado risk given enlarging low
level shear across this boundary. Otherwise growing instability
wedge across the warm sector back west is primed to initiate
convection along/ahead of cold front pushing through wrn IL attm
with additional isolated storms out in front through the warm
sector also possible late this afternoon. Given degree of
expected instability in combo with enhancing deep layer shear
supercells are likely with primary sig hail risk and attendant
enhanced tor risk with discrete storms interacting with the warm
front.

Storms clear quickly far east by mid evening and then quiet
overnight within post cold frontal bubble. This is short lived
however as nrn plains upper flow wobbles east into the midwest Wed
and induces new sfc frontal wave across the mid MS valley. While
track of this is expected to hold south fairly robust warm advection
aloft expected to spread as far north as the US 24 corridor with
localized heavy rain far south Wed evening and perhaps some marginal
hail risk with stronger storms. Thereafter elongating upper trough
hangs back through the srn lakes with a risk for showers at times
through Saturday along with quite cool temps.

Upper pattern breaks back warmer yet continued unsettled longer term
by mid next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 128 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

Behind this morning`s band of showers and thunderstorms, enough
convergence and forcing within a still moisture atmospheric column
has been modeled to produce additional showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon. Models actually do create additional instability
this afternoon behind the morning convection allowing for the chance
for strong to severe thunderstorms. It appears the timing of
thunderstorms will be 20z to 00z this evening with all threats on
the table with any thunderstorm. It is interesting that cold
advection waits until this evening, after the passage of the storms
and likely holds off widespread MVFR CIGs until at least that point.
Although patchy MVFR and perhaps IFR conditions will be possible
within the stronger thunderstorms with heavy rain reducing VISBY.
There is some indication that we clear out after this evening`s
storms, but the dry air should be enough to keep fog at bay
overnight.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...T
AVIATION...Roller