Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 240212

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
1012 PM EDT Thu Mar 23 2017

It has been an active evening on radar, with a `backdoor front`
impacting southern Florida and the island chain around the edge
of strong ridging centered off the Carolina coastline. Convection
fired off the southwest peninsula and entered the coastal waters
of our CWA around 21/22z, producing thunderstorms with wind gusts
of 30-50 mph, with Ramrod Key clocking the highest gust at 52 mph
just after 7pm.

As of 10pm, weakening showers and thunderstorms were present
across the Florida Straits, with stronger convection located
farther upstream off the coast of Miami. Temperatures were in the
upper 60s to low 70s, and dew points were in the low to mid 60s.
CWOP stations report winds gusting out of the northeast to 15-20
mph across the Middle and Upper Keys. CMAN stations are reporting
increasing winds out of the northeast, with 10-15 knots across the
Southeastern Gulf, but gusts up to 26 knots at Fowey Rocks.

The frontal boundary will continue to gradually sink southward
through the day Friday, with moisture erroding from west to east
along the feature. Expect a change of storm motion as winds veer
eastward, causing south-moving showers to begin drifting westward
after 06z. A 40 percent POP remains in place overnight, with 30
percent POP Friday. Thunderstorm chances will diminish after
sunrise. Winds will remain quite gusty through the beginning of
the weekend. Expect temperatures near climo, with lows tonight
near 70, and highs near 80.


A Small Craft Advisory remains in place for all coastal waters to
the Florida Keys through at least early Friday morning for
northeast to east winds increasing to 20 to 25 knots. Fresh
breezes, creating poor marine conditions, will likely continue
for the first part of the weekend. As a high pressure system near
the Carolina coastline departs to the northeast on Sunday, the
pressure gradient across the coastal waters will relax, leading
to slacking winds on Sunday and early next week.


Until 12z/24th, expect showers and isolated thunderstorms to
increase in coverage along the island chain, hence, a few sub VFR
encounters are expected at the Key West and Marathon terminals.
Northeast winds of around 10 knots will become northeast to east and
increase to 12 to 16 knots with gusts of 20 to 23 knots at the
island airports overnight.


GM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Friday for GMZ031>035-



Data Collection......Chesser

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