Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 241453
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1053 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE STRAITS AND MUCH OF THE KEYS IS STARTING
TO DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO. EARLY
MORNING SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AT LEAST MODERATE EROSION IN THE THICKER AND
LAYERED ELEVATED CLOUDS. THE ELONGATED AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE
REACHING THROUGH THE STRAITS IS MAKING FOR A COMPLEX WIND REGIME. BUT
MUCH OF THE MARINE SERVICE AREA IS EXPERIENCING NORTHEAST WINDS NEAR
20 KNOTS...GUSTING AOA 25 KNOTS. WINDS MAY HAVE MORE DIRECTIONAL
VARIABILITY IN THE EASTERN STRAITS THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
CONDITIONS WOULD NOT BE AGREEABLE THERE ANYWAY.

THE EARLY MORNING SOUNDINGS LOCALLY AND FROM OUR NEIGHBORS ON THE
SOUTHEAST MAINLAND SHOW A MARKED DIFFERENCE IN AIRMASS AS ONE LOOKS
FURTHER UP THE WEST COAST OF THE MAINLAND. NEARLY ONE AND THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH DIFFERENCE IN OVERALL MOISTURE BETWEEN HERE AND
TAMPA. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...LOCAL DOPPLER RADAR HAS SHOWN A DECLINE
IN THE COVERAGE OF RAIN/SHOWERS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE DOWNWARD TREND IN
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. A RECENT ZONE UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADJUST THE PROBABILITY
OF MEASURABLE RAIN DOWN FOR THE LOWER KEYS INITIALLY...AND FURTHER
EAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL HAVE MORE DIRECTIONAL VARIABILITY IN THE EASTERN STRAITS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. BUT OVERALL...EXPECT A NORTH TO NORTHEAST FRESH
TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG WIND ACROSS ALL WATERS SURROUNDING THE FLORIDA
KEYS TODAY...AND TONIGHT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL
WATERS THROUGH THEN. EXPECT WINDS TO DIMINISH ON SATURDAY AS THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST...AND WINDS MODERATE FROM
THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 25/12Z...AT THE MARATHON ISLAND TERMINAL...EXPECTING MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z. MOSTLY VFR WITH
BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS AT WILL PERSIST AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z. THE PESSIMISTIC FORECAST IS DUE TO THE
NEAR BY FRONT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THE AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS THIS MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE ALOFT INTO A NORTHEAST FETCH
DRIVING THE LOW LEVEL SHOWERS. AS INDICATED BY THE MORE OPTIMISTIC
FORECAST FOR KEY WEST...THE EXPECTATION IS FOR SHOWERS TO CLEAR THE
AREA SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THIS MORNING. IT WILL TAKE A
BIT LONGER FOR RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER TO EXIT THE AREA...HENCE THE MVFR
CEILINGS OVER KEY WEST.


&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........04
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BWC
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

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