Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 081543
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
1040 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
EARLY VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW SKIES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY ALONG
THE ISLAND CHAIN AND THE ADJACENT WATERS...BUT WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES TO OUR WEST. MEANWHILE...LOCAL RADARS ARE NOT DETECTING ANY
PRECIPITATION ECHOES...BUT CONSIDERABLE FALSE ECHOES IN THE FORM
OF CHAFF ARE EVIDENT. SURFACE WISE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO INTO SOUTH FLORIDA...WITH
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DIPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.
WINDS VARY FROM NORTH AT 5 KNOTS AT LONG KEY...TO NORTH WINDS
OF 13 KNOTS AT MOLASSES REEF. OTHERWISE...OUR MORNING SOUNDING REVEALED
SCANT MOISTURE (PWAT .54 INCHES) CONFINED NEAR A STRONG 5 DEGREES C INVERSION
BASED NEAR 850 MB AND ABOVE 500 MB. AN INCREASING UNIDIRECTIONAL WESTERLY
FLOW REACHES WELL INTO THE TROPOSPHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM (REST OF TODAY)...
WITH A WESTERLY FLOW NEAR THE AFOREMENTIONED STABLE LAYER...EXPECT
SOME STRATOCUMULUS TO PUSH INTO AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE KEYS. SO DESPITE WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION DUE TO A WESTERLY
TRAJECTORY...CHANGEABLE SKIES SHOULD KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.

&&

.MARINE...
DUE TO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHING THROUGH OUR ENTIRE MARINE DISTRICT
TONIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE REQUIRED FOR ALL KEYS COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT AND PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR VIS/CIGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLAND TERMINALS TODAY AS
GENTLE NORTHEASTERLY BREEZES WILL BACK OUT OF THE NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN TURNING TO THE WEST AND INCREASING THIS EVENING AS
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES THROUGH THE REGION. FRESH WESTERLY
BREEZES WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT...GUSTING UPWARDS OF 25 KNOTS.

&&

.CLIMATE...ON THIS DATE IN KEY WEST WEATHER HISTORY...BACK IN THE
YEAR IN 1895...THE DAILY RECORD LOW TEMPERATURE OF 49F WAS RECORDED.
THE LAST TIME TEMPERATURES DROPPED BELOW 49F IN KEY WEST DATES ALL
THE WAY BACK TO FEBRUARY 20TH 2015...SOME 352 DAYS AGO. TEMPERATURE
RECORDS IN KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1872.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....BF
DATA COLLECTION.......EV

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