Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 221953

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
253 PM EST Sun Jan 22 2017

Treacherous marine conditions expected tonight through Monday

Early visible satellite photographs show mostly sunny skies with
temperatures hovering around 80 degrees combined with
uncomfortable dewpoint readings in the lower to mid 70s along the
island chain. Meanwhile, local radars are void of any
precipitation echoes in our county warning area. Surface wise,
a complex and large area of low pressure extends from Louisiana to
the Mississippi delta, while high pressure has slipped to our
southeast. The pressure difference between these systems is
resulting in mostly south winds of around 20 knots with gusts
between 24 and 28 knots. Otherwise, our morning sounding reveals
limited moisture underneath a significant 5 degree C inversion
based at 8500 feet. Strong south to southwest winds veer to
southwest up to 700 mb.

With the mid and upper level lift remaining concentric and
consolidated along the gulf coast states, moisture will remain
limited with a strong stable layer to remain in place. Hence,
partly to mostly sunny skies, temperatures climbing into the lower
to mid 80s with only generous dime pops will be carried for the
balance of the day.


A Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect for strong south
winds which will slowly clock around to south southwest by late
today, before increasing to 25 to 30 knots with occasional gusts
near 35 knots. In addition, winds will be even higher ahead and
along the strong pre-frontal squall line tonight. Subsequently,
hazardous marine conditions can be expected tonight into Monday.


VFR is likely during daylight hours. Moderate to fresh southerly
breezes are expected with wind gusts approaching 30 knots. The main
concern will come after sunset when thunderstorms embedded in a
squall line approach the Florida Keys, with timing between 00Z-09Z.
As a result, periods of IFR and gusts upwards of 40 knots out of the
west will be possible within this timeframe. After the front passes,
westerly winds will remain elevated.


In 1983, 6.42 inches of rain fell in Key West. The 6.42 inches
is the wettest day ever between the dates of December 09 and May
29. Precipitation records date back to 1871.


GM...Small Craft Advisory for GMZ031>035-042>044-052>055-072>075.



Data Collection......Vickery

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