Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 241809

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
209 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

Isolated showers accompanied by a few thunderstorms have meandered in
the atlantic waters offshore from the upper Keys, just to the
south/southeast of Molasses Reef Light. Additional showers and
thunderstorms just to the north of Florida Bay have moved very little
as well. Winds have acquired an easterly component all
locations...turning slightly to the southeast in the Straits.
Temperatures are between 85 and 90 along the island chain.

High surface pressure currently centered along the South
Carolina/Georgia Coast will continue to settle southeastward into
the western north Atlantic. This will continue to freshen the local
winds from the east/northeast over the next few periods. However, the
latest cycle of the large scale models suggest that the winds may not
accelerate as much locally. Regardless, the forecast reasoning has
not changed much from our previous few cycles for the Florida Keys.
Expect at least a few showers and thunderstorms over the next few
days as mid to upper level narrow trough sharpens just to the east of
the Florida Peninsula. The local airmass surrounding the Keys will
remain moist and relatively unstable. By this weekend, the large area
of high pressure centered to our northeast weakens and then gets
displaced north/northeastward as lower pressure slides in from the
southeast towards the southeast coast of the United States. There is
good agreement between the GFS and ECMWF models in regards to
strength and movement of that system. This keeps the forecast
confidence on the low side in regards to the local conditions for the
Florida Keys, but we can expect at least isolated/slight chance of
showers, and it would not be surprising if this needs to be adjusted
up to scattered/chance of showers with accompanying thunderstorms for
the middle and later portions of the forecast cycle. This of course
includes the upcoming holiday weekend. Temperatures should remain at
or a couple of degrees above the seasonal average through every
period of this forecast.


Expect freshening mainly easterly breezes across all waters
surrounding the Florida Keys from tonight through at least Wednesday
night. High surface pressure settling off the southeast coast of the
United States will then get displaced to the north/northeast by this
weekend by an area of lower pressure transitioning towards the
southeast coast from the tropical Atlantic. A moderate mainly
easterly breeze will continue through the middle and later periods
of the forecast.


Expect VFR conditions through 00Z with east winds 5-10 knots. Will
place VCSH in the TAFs beginning 00Z with scattered development
expected.  Difficult to put exact timing on any impacts to the
terminals.  East winds 10-15 knots expected Wednesday with some
higher gusts.


Key West  79  87  78  87 / 20 20 20 20
Marathon  78  89  79  89 / 20 20 20 20






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