Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 240816
AFDKEY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Key West FL
316 AM EST Fri Feb 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
From satellite interrogation we see a complex pattern across the
northern half of the United States. Across the southeast United
States high pressure is in control. Then off the east coast of
Florida, north of The Bahamas, we find a deep cutoff low drifting
northeastward. There have been some bouts of low level clouds
earlier, but these seem to have eroded. Northwest to north winds
are decreasing due to the low pressure system north of The Bahamas
moving away from the area.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
The system north of The Bahamas will drift northeast while it
continues to fill and be absorbed by a Alberta Clipper system
digging over the Ohio River Valley through Saturday morning. This
clipper will be the leading edge of an upper level trough moving
across the southeast United States Saturday through Sunday. The
tail end of this trough will move across South Florida Sunday
morning, which will then linger near the Keys through midweek.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
In the wake of the trough, high pressure will build over the
southeastern United States Sunday afternoon, then remain north of
the Keys and South Florida Tuesday night. This ridge will produce
peaks and lulls in east to southeast winds Monday through Tuesday
night. The next trough will trek across the Colorado Front Range
early Tuesday, and push the high pressure to our north eastward
over the central Atlantic through Wednesday night. A weak pressure
pattern will move over the Keys area Wednesday late and Thursday.


&&

.MARINE...
High pressure will move over the southeastern United States late
Sunday night and Monday. Cautionary headlines are a good bet on
Sunday night, but an advisory may be required at least for the
Florida Straits. High pressure moves eastward quickly Tuesday
evening through Thursday morning.


&&

.AVIATION...
Intermittent, MVFR ceilings, based at around 2,000 feet, are likely
at EYW and MTH late tonight into Friday morning. VFR conditions will
prevail at EYW and MTH Friday afternoon. Sustained west to northwest
winds of 15 to 20 knots from just off the surface to about 3,000
feet will decrease to 10 to 15 knots Friday afternoon.

&&

.CLIMATE...
On this date in Florida Keys weather history, in 1965, the low
temperature in Key West was 77 degrees. This set the daily record
for warmest minimum temperature measured in Key West on February
24th, a record which still stands 52 years later. In addition, this
low temperature of 77 degrees is tied as the warmest minimum
temperature ever observed in Key West during the month of February.
Temperature records at Key West date back to 1872.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Key West  78  68  81  70 / -  0 0 -
Marathon  80  68  84  70 / -  0 0 -

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

Public/Marine/Fire...BWC
Aviation/Nowcasts/Climate....BS

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