Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS62 KKEY 061901
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
301 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY - GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES ARE BEING GENERATED BY A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA. A BROAD SAL...ACCOMPANIED BY
DRIER AND STABLER AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE LAYERS IS KEEPING SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUPPRESSED. WITH THAT SAID...SEASONABLY AMPLE
SURFACE THETA E AND A NUMBER OF BOUNDARIES HAVE BEEN SUFFICIENT TO
PUNCH UPDRAFTS THROUGH THE STABLE LAYER...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN PRESENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

FORECAST - THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND ACROSS FLORIDA THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK...KEEPING GENTLE WINDS OUT OF THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST. A SLIGHT PICK UP IN WINDS IS EXPECTED MID WEEK AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS A BIT NORTHWARD TIGHTENING THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
THE BROAD SAL WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA FOR A FEW MORE
DAYS...KEEPING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SUBDUED. THE
SEASONABLE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO RETURN AROUND THE SAME TIME
THAT WINDS STRENGTHEN. WILL MAINTAIN NEAR NORMAL RAIN CHANCES FROM
MID WEEK AND BEYOND. EXPECT SEASONABLY STEAMY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEK.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THIS WEEKEND...A MID LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. IN RESPONSE...THE LOWER AND
SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
KEYS...WEAKENING WINDS SIGNIFICANTLY. EXPECT NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND POPS THROUGH THE FAR EXTENDED.

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PERSIST TONIGHT
THROUGH MID WEEK AS A RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS FLORIDA. THE USUAL SUBTLE
EVENING SURGES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE OUTER AND WESTERN FLORIDA
STRAITS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN HEADING PAST WEDNESDAY AS
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS A BIT NORTHWARD. A CAUTION MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
THE FLORIDA STRAITS FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS TODAY. SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON
BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE INTO THE
TAFS. AMENDMENTS WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  83  91  83  91 / 10 10 10 10
MARATHON  83  93  83  93 / 10 10 10 10

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........11
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....KASPER
DATA COLLECTION.......CHESSER

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