Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KKEY 231848
AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
248 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENT WEATHER SUMMARY -- MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT AIR
TEMPERATURES IN MOST ISLAND COMMUNITIES ARE NEAR 80F...WITH DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S. LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZES ARE BLOWING AT
MOST LOCATIONS. A SURFACE ANALYSIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON REVEALS A
VERY WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CELL CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO
WITH SEA-BREEZE CIRCULATIONS INITIATING AROUND THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA. LOCAL DOPPLER RADARS ARE VOID OF PRECIPITATION ECHOES
THANKS TO A VERY DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE ALOFT.

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS -- WINDS OVER FLORIDA BAY AND WATERS ADJACENT TO
THE UPPER KEYS WILL BACK WEST-SOUTHWEST AND SURGE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS
FOR A FEW HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS
DEVELOPMENT IS IN RESPONSE TO MAINLAND HEATING/SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS. OTHERWISE...A FAIR AND FINE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
PERSIST FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 24 HOURS. A WEAK SHORT-WAVE PERTURBATION
WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES WILL INDUCE A WEAK
SOUTHERLY CURRENT IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE ON THURSDAY...WITH SOME
WEAK WARM THERMAL/MOISTURE ADVECTION SETTING UP THURSDAY/THURSDAY
NIGHT. THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE MAY MOISTEN/DESTABILIZE ENOUGH FOR A FEW
SHOWERS BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. THEREAFTER...A PRIMARILY
ZONAL UPPER FLOW WITH ONLY WEAK EMBEDDED...MOSTLY SHALLOW
PERTURBATIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH RELATIVELY WEAK GRADIENT FLOWS
THROUGH SUNDAY. BY SUNDAY...SOUTHEAST BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO FRESHEN
SOME AND STAY MODERATE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND NIGHT FROM FRIDAY ONWARD.
&&

.MARINE...
NO ADVISORIES...NO HEADLINES. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST
OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE HIGH
WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE WESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...
THROUGH 24/18Z...PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH EYW
AND MTH. A FEW SHORT-LIVED STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT
EITHER TERMINAL. HOWEVER...INDIVIDUAL EPISODE DURATIONS WILL BE ON
THE ORDER OF MINUTES.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  70  83  74  84 / -  -  -  10
MARATHON  70  87  74  87 / -  -  -  10
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.........KASPER
AVIATION/NOWCASTS.....11
DATA COLLECTION.......VICKERY

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