Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLIX 291806
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
106 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.AVIATION...

A FEW SHOWERS THAT RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN CHANDELEUR
SOUND/SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI SOUND AREA MAY MOVE INTO THE
VICINITY/SOUTH OF KGPT BETWEEN 19-21Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY
SCATTERED TO OCCASIONALLY BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES 040-060
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH SUNDAY. 22/TD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 757 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

..SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS HAVE TRANSPORTED MOISTURE INTO
THIS LAYER WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 60S. ABOVE THIS LAYER
IN THE MIDLEVELS...LOTS OF DRY AIR IS IN PLACE AS WINDS INITIALLY
FROM THE EAST ROTATE AROUND TO THE NORTH. ALL OF THIS HAS RESULTED
IN A PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE OF 0.93 INCHES. THE CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE TODAY WILL BE NEAR THE MAX FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND
THIS SHOULD LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA AS NOTED IN THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. A PEAK WIND SPEED OF 53 KNOTS WAS
LOCATED AT 34800 FEET.

12Z BALLOON INFO: THE BALLOON ASCENDED FOR 100 MINUTES REACHING A
HEIGHT OF 20.3 MILES ABOVE THE GROUND AND TRAVELING 28 MILES
DOWNRANGE FROM THE OFFICE. THE BALLOON BURST OVER LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN.

ANSORGE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...
A FAIRLY QUIET MORNING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH VERY FEW
CLOUDS DETECTED ON SATELLITE AND NO SHOWERS ON RADAR.
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE IN THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOW TO MID
70S. EXPECT ANOTHER NICE DAY AS TEMPERATURES REACH THE UPPER 80S
TO LOW 90S. AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE IS OVER THE AREA BUT WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND BEING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS FEATURE WILL
TAKE OUT THE MENTION OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA AND
HAVE ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS LATEST GUIDANCE
IS A LITTLE DRIER. 13/MH

LONG TERM...
THINGS GET SOMEWHAT MESSY IN THE LONG RANGE AS THE FORECAST IS
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHAT TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ENDS UP DOING.
LATEST NHC TRACK PUTS ERIKA AS A WEAK TROPICAL STORM CLOSE TO THE
BIG BEND OF FLORIDA BY TUESDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER THE LATEST TRACK
GUIDANCE WANTS TO PUSH ERIKA A LITTLE BIT FURTHER WEST NEAR
APALACHICOLA AROUND THAT SAME TIME. WITH TROPICAL STORM ERIKA
BEING SO DISORGANIZED IT IS MORE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT
WEST. ALSO MODELS AND FORECASTERS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME FINDING
THE CENTER OF ERIKA AND THIS CAUSES THE MODELS TO STRUGGLE WITH
THE TRACK AND INTENSITY. AS LONG AS ERIKA CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE
THE MORE THE TRACK WILL NUDGE TO THE WEST. NOW...WHAT DOES THIS
HAVE TO DO WITH OUR FORECAST...OBVIOUSLY IF ERIKA WAS ABLE TO PUSH
MORE WEST OUR RAIN CHANCES WOULD INCREASE. IF ERIKA STAYS CLOSER
TO FLORIDA WE SHOULD SEE LESS CHANCE OF RAIN AS WE WOULD BE IN THE
SUBSIDENCE AREA WHICH WOULD KEEP THE RAIN CHANCES DOWN. ALSO
MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE OVER THE AREA AND THAT WOULD
INCREASE SHEAR AND HELP STEER ERIKA AWAY FROM THE AREA. WITH ALL
OF THAT BEING SAID I HAVE ADJUSTED POPS IN THE LONG RANGE DOWNWARD
SOME BUT NOT STRAYING TO FAR FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AS GUIDANCE IS
ALL OVER THE PLACE THANKS TO ERIKA OR THE POSSIBLE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA. WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS SITUATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND
FOR ANY CHANGES. 13/MH

AVIATION...
CONTINUED QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FCST WITH VFR
STATUS THE RULE OF THE DAY. LOOKS AGAIN LIKE JUST SOME SCT CU AROUND
4500-6500 FT TO DEAL WITH. /CAB/

MARINE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE FCST OVERALL BUT AFTER TUE THINGS
GET A LITTLE CLOUD. THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK THINGS CONTINUE TO REMAIN FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS AND SEAS 2 FEET OR LESS. BY LATE TUE AND THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF NEXT WEEK WINDS AND SEAS COULD VARY GREATLY IF THERE IS
ANYTHING LEFT OF ERIKA MOVING IN THE EASTERN GULF. /CAB/

DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS CODE....GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...NONE.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY
         ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  90  67  91  69 /   0   0  10  10
BTR  91  68  91  70 /   0   0  10  10
ASD  90  69  91  72 /  10  10  10  10
MSY  90  72  90  74 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  89  72  90  74 /  10  10  10  20
PQL  89  71  90  73 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


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