Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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580
FXUS64 KLIX 242049
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
349 PM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

Once again...weakness in the upper pattern is allowing lapse rates
to be sufficient for scattered convective development. Cell
movement is very slow, so locations receiving thunderstorms are
likely to see locally heavy rain. Northern portions of the area
have seen a little less in the way of convection, so temperatures
there made it in to the lower 90s. Elsewhere, temperatures have
been topping out around 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM...

Really not a lot of change in the forecast scenario with scattered
to numerous thunderstorms each day through midweek. Hasn`t been
taking long for convection to break out in the mornings with
convective temperatures remaining in the mid to upper 80s, along
with water temperatures in that same range. Haven`t even been
seeing much of a lull during the day over marine areas. Will show
little day to day change in temperatures or rain chances through
Wednesday. 35

&&

.LONG TERM...

May see slightly drier air next weekend for slightly lower rain
chances, but little significant change in the upper air pattern
expected. Few changes made to extended portion of the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...

Timing of impacts of the isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA with
briefly lower CIGS/VSBYS will be difficult again late this
afternoon through Monday. Have used a combination of current radar
and visible satellite trends to try to estimate the higher
probability with TEMPO TSRA in the short term, however future
amendments will likely be needed to fine tune. VFR conditions
should prevail otherwise, except a few hours of 3-5nm BR is a good
possibility late tonight/early Monday morning at KMCB with a lower
probability at KBTR, KHDC, KASD and KHUM. 22/TD

&&

.MARINE...

No significant changes to the forecast with stagnant pattern in
place. Main marine issue will be thunderstorms with the usual late
night maxima. Wind fields will remain fairly light outside of the
usual evening increase over the sounds and eastern waters.
Waterspouts will remain possible during shower and thunderstorm
development, mainly during the morning hours. 35

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning
         or advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
         tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  74  91  73  89 /  40  50  20  50
BTR  76  91  74  90 /  30  60  20  60
ASD  76  91  76  89 /  30  50  20  50
MSY  78  90  76  89 /  30  60  30  60
GPT  77  90  77  89 /  30  50  20  50
PQL  75  91  76  89 /  30  50  20  50

&&

.LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$



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