Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 111010
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
410 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Deep longwave trough encompasses over half of the entire country,
including the local forecast area. The base of this trough will lift
slightly today which will allow for a brief day of warming.
Temperatures will increase quite a bit today with highs rising into
the mid to upper 60s, which is barely normal for this time of year.
An amplifying shortwave trough will dive south across the
southeastern United State Tuesday. A strong cold front will
accompany this feature, likely pushing through the area Tuesday
morning. This will knock temps back down about 10 degrees or so for
a couple days. Generally speaking, lows will be in the 30s and highs
in the 50s. One night of near freezing mins is expected Wednesday
morning. There won`t be any rain with this boundary as there will
not be any chance for moisture to return before it moves through.

Temperatures will rebound slightly Thursday before yet another cold
front moves through Thurs night/Fri morning. A slightly better
chance of rain will be possible with this front as the sub-tropical
jet carries Pacific moisture across Mexico to the northern Gulf
coast. Attm, it appears the timing of this moisture will be such
that showers don`t develop on the front until it reaches the coast.
So for now, have kept pops to locations south of a  Donaldsonville,
to New Orleans, to Gulfport line. This is quite similar to the
previous forecast.

This last trough will finally be the one that shifts east to the
Atlantic, allowing a ridge to develop over the CWA. Temperatures
will respond over the end of the week and weekend by rising into the
upper 60s to near 70. Moisture will begin to rise as surface high
pressure shifts east and southerly flow develops. The next
appreciable chance of rain will develop Sunday/Monday as a trough
moves into the midsection of the country then.

MEFFER
&&

.AVIATION...

Reduction in vis this morning for a few sites but will rapidly
become VFR after daylight. A cold front moves through Tuesday
morning causing winds to become NW at 10kt while those sites on the
lee side of lakes will be stronger. No ceilings are expected with
the front.

&&

.MARINE...

Winds will once again rise to around 20kt today ahead of the next
cold front that should move through Tuesday morning. Winds will
again lower before responding once again to another cold front that
should move through Thursday night into Friday morning. High
pressure will quickly move east after the Friday front causing winds
to become onshore by Saturday and Sunday. Another cold front will
move through Sunday night into Monday. Each of these fronts will
bring with them at least short durations of flag conditions whether
that be caution or SCA conditions.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS code: Blue.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: Small craft advisories.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend Green  = No weather
impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or    high
visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support. Orange = High Impacts; Slight to
Moderate risk severe; nearby tropical         events; HazMat or
other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or

         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  66  40  56  32 /   0   0   0   0
BTR  67  39  58  32 /   0   0   0   0
ASD  66  41  58  31 /   0   0   0   0
MSY  66  46  59  38 /   0   0   0   0
GPT  63  42  59  33 /   0   0   0   0
PQL  66  39  58  30 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Tuesday
     for GMZ536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Tuesday
     for GMZ538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577.

&&

$$



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