Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 262019

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
319 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016


High pressure continues to cover much of the southeastern quarter
of the country. Low pressure over Illinois this afternoon
associated with an upper trough moving through the Mississippi
River Valley has a very limited amount of precipitation associated
with it. Weak easterly wave over the Gulf of Mexico has a couple
of bands of clouds with it, but very little, if any, precipitation.

Temperatures at mid-afternoon are generally in the lower 80s with
dew points mid 50s to mid 60s.



Little change to forecast scenario in store. Mississippi River
Valley shortwave will continue to move eastward tonight and
Thursday as southern end shears out. Synoptic scale models backing
off somewhat on precipitation for tonight and tomorrow, but
mesoscale modeling still printing out some QPF for tonight and
tomorrow, so will continue low mention of showers that was in
previous package. Beyond tomorrow, dry weather in force through
the weekend. Little day to day change in temperature trends. Model
guidance in reasonable agreement. If anything, may trend slightly
below low temperature guidance in areas that normally are cooler.



Medium range models in fairly decent agreement on upper ridging
over the central Gulf Coast region for early next week. Upper trof
to the west will send impulses over top of the ridge, but it
currently appears that any significant precipitation will remain
to the west of our local area. No precipitation mentioned through
the end of the forecast period. Persistence temperature forecast
in place into early next week, but may see a degree or two lower
readings due to extra cloud cover by about Wednesday. 35



Primarily VFR conditions expected. We should start seeing higher
clouds approaching from the northwest this evening as shortwave
across the Middle Mississippi River Valley passes north of the
area. Southeasterly surface flow is adding moisture to the
airmass, and as radiational cooling occurs overnight, there is
potential for patchy fog to develop at the more fog prone sites
such as KHDC, KMCB, KHUM and KASD. Anticipate at least temporary
MVFR to IFR visibilities at those terminals for a few hours around
sunrise before returning to VFR conditions. Probabilities for
precipitation too low to mention in the forecast. 35



Protected waters should continue to see fairly benign conditions
through the forecast period. Guidance has backed off somewhat on
the strength of the winds over the outer waters and southward.
Still will be some swell, but this forecast will reflect somewhat
lower wave heights in the later periods of the forecast than what
was in previous packages. 35



DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning
         or advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
         tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.


MCB  61  82  60  84 /  20  20   0   0
BTR  62  83  61  85 /  20  20   0   0
ASD  61  83  61  85 /  20  20  10   0
MSY  66  82  66  85 /  20  20   0   0
GPT  64  82  63  83 /  20  20  10   0
PQL  60  81  59  83 /  20  20  10   0



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