Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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486
FXUS64 KLIX 260049
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
749 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

Lower levels of the atmosphere continue to moisten as winds from
the southeast direct Gulf moisture into the central Gulf Coast
States. Dewpoints have increased on average by around 1 degree
Celsius from the surface to 5000 feet /850mb/ since yesterday
evening. The precipitable water value continues to climb and is
at 1.60 inches, which is about a half inch above typical for late
May. The inversion that has been persistent around 850mb the last
few evenings is now centered around 800mb this evening. A peak
wind speed of 68 knots was at 49000 feet.

00z balloon info: A successful flight lasting 100 minutes and
reaching a height of 21 miles above the ground bursting over Lake
Borgne 26 miles downrange from the office.

Ansorge

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 350 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016/

Short Term...So did you feel it out there today, Summer. Yes it
felt like Summer today and not just because the kids are out of
school. Dewpoints have recovered across much of the region with
upper 60s to mid 70s. Combine that with temps climbing into the
mid 80s to lower 90s and a few locations have seen the heat index
climb into the mid to upper 90s. Yes welcome to Summer and for at
least the time being it looks like it is here to stay for a few
days.

Warm and humid conditions will persist but at least afternoon highs
may be a tad cooler but still looking at mid to upper 80s. The ridge
currently over the region will erode some tomorrow (push east) as a
weak disturbance works northeast out of Old Mexico/southern TX and
into the Lower MS Valley. This should allow for better rain chances
across the northwestern portions of the CWA. East of I-55 rain will
be hard to come by again but can not rule out an isolated storm
although coastal MS will most likely remain rain free. As for strong
to severe potential, there will be some instability to work with, I
did mention it feels like Summer out there, but nothing really else
suggesting an imminent threat. Mid level flow is rather low,
possibly topping out around 30-35 kts and no real upper level
divergence noted and SPC doesn`t even have the area in a Marginal.
With this we may see one or two strong storms but severe storms
doesn`t look likely at this time.

Convection will come to an end a few hrs after the sun sets and then
we will likely remain mostly dry heading into the weekend and likely
till next week. The ridge will begin to slowly build back over the
area Friday and then dominate the region through the weekend. That
said the ridge will not be overpowering with mid level heights
around 585-588 dm and h5 temps around -8 to -10 C through the
weekend so we could still see an isolated storm or two each
afternoon. We will start to warm up this weekend with afternoon
highs trying to top out above 90 again. /CAB/

Long Term...Next week will be much like this week. Ridge will
dominate the area. Upper 80s to lower 90s will occur each day with
heat index readings in the mid 90s. Typical diurnal thunderstorms
can`t be ruled out each afternoon but overall we should be dry.

AVIATION...

Onshore southeast flow about 10 to 15 knots should diminish during
the evening and become calm overnight. Scattered clouds between 3
and 4 thousand feet should dissipate during the evening. Visibility
should be 6 miles or more. Some radiation fog may form along in
southwest and coastal Mississippi late tonight or around sunrise
Thursday. Visibilities could be between 1 and 3 miles in the fog.
The fog should dissipate or lift into scattered clouds between 1 and
2 thousand feet by mid morning with visibility 6 miles or more.

MARINE...

High pressure should continue to dominate the flow over the coastal
waters through the rest of the week. Winds will be mostly southeast
10 to 15 knots through the weekend. Waves and/or seas should be 2
feet or less.

DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning
         or advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
         tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  70  88  71  85 /  10  30  20  10
BTR  72  88  72  86 /  10  40  20  20
ASD  71  85  71  85 /   0  10  10  10
MSY  73  85  74  86 /  10  10  10  10
GPT  73  84  73  84 /  10  10   0  10
PQL  68  84  71  84 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$



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