Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 260524 AAD

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
124 AM EDT Fri May 26 2017

The winds will remain light and variable earlier through this
morning before going easterly along the east coast taf sites
around 10 knots this afternoon. KAPF winds will also be light and
variable through this morning before going westerly around 10
knots this afternoon. The weather should remain dry through this
morning before some showers develop this afternoon over the taf
sties. Any storms that do develop will remain over the interior
areas of South Florida this afternoon. Therefore, VCSH will be
added for all of the taf sites after 17z today. The ceiling and
vis will also remain in VFR conditions today over all of the taf


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 853 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017/

Went ahead and removed thunderstorms from the forecast for the
overnight hours. With the lack of convective activity, other than
a lone shower over Palm beach County, hard to keep them in for the
remainder of the night. Also, made adjustment to PoPs to account
for latest HRRR run and current activity. Slowly brought slight
chance PoPs down the east half, mainly along the coast, as the
front continues to make its way south. The latest HRRR run shows
mostly isolated shower activity, if any at all. It keep most of
the showers offshore, but kept some showers in the forecast to
account for error in the model run. Also, given the lower wind
speed over the Gulf,and that the latest marine model lowers the
rip current risk for the gulf overnight, dropped the moderate risk
for the Gulf coast beaches. no other significant changes made to
the forecast at this time.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 757 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017/

The frontal boundary is progressively moving southeastward over
South Florida this evening. Coverage of rain has decreased over
the past few hours. For this update, lowered PoPs over land areas
of SE Florida for tonight through 09Z based on latest radar trends
and the latest HRRR forecast. HRRR still shows scattered showers
forming along the boundary over the extreme southeast portion of
the Peninsula and offshore, so maintained 30-40 percent rain
chances Friday beginning at 09Z. Southeast portions of the
peninsula will see scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
Friday morning. The highest rain chances will migrate to southern
interior areas early Friday afternoon due to daytime heating.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 734 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017/

A weak cold front is currently moving across South Florida this
evening, and will continue to slowly move through during the
overnight hours. The front may stall along the far southern edge
of the peninsula. The forecast is for VFR conditions through the
night, with showers all but over across the area. A few isolated
are persisting into the evening hours near PBI. Otherwise, the
wind is forecast to be light and variable overnight,although it
may have a west northwest tendency. Tomorrow, the wind will pickup
out of the northwest, before yielding to a sea breeze for all TAF
sites by the afternoon hours.


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 334 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017/

A broken line of thunderstorms pushing across South Florida is
located just ahead of a cold front this afternoon. The front is
forecast to slow down and become stationary over the extreme
southern part of the peninsula tonight into early Friday.
Showers/storms should decrease in coverage this evening and will
mainly be confined to the far southern part of South Florida and
marine areas. For Friday, northern portions of South Florida will
see drier conditions with lower relative humidity, but southern
areas will still see a risk for a few showers and thunderstorms
especially during the afternoon.

The front will wash out by Saturday as high pressure builds into the
region for the weekend. Above normal temperatures are expected this
weekend, and heat indices will likely be near 100 degrees by
Saturday for portions of South Florida. An afternoon thunderstorm
or two cannot be ruled out over interior South Florida this
weekend as converging sea breezes could spark some isolated
activity. However, for the most part, Saturday through Monday
should feature hot weather, relatively light winds and only slight
rain chances.

Rain chances should then increase somewhat by the middle of next
week as the high pressure begins to shift eastward and weaken.
This will allow for a flow of somewhat moister air over the

Winds and seas will be decreasing this evening, becoming
light overnight.  Relatively benign marine conditions are then
expected to persist Friday through the weekend and into early next
week. Sea breezes will develop each day over the holiday weekend, so
winds could be as high as 10 kts with gusts to 15 kts for a few
hours in the late morning to early afternoon right near the coast.
Another exception to the benign conditions would be near any
thunderstorms, where locally enhanced winds and seas could occur.

West Palm Beach  74  92  76  92 /  10  10   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  79  91  78  92 /  30  10  10  10
Miami            78  92  78  93 /  30  10  10  10
Naples           74  90  74  89 /   0  10   0  10



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