Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 031739
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
139 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2015

.AVIATION...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING. AN OUTFLOW OBSERVABLE ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH INTO THE AREA MAY TRIGGER NEW
CONVECTION BUT TOO DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE WHERE AND HOW STRONG. SO
FOR NOW LEFT VCTS IN FOR ALL EAST COAST TERMINALS BUT MAY HAVE TO
AMEND IF DEVELOPMENT STRENGTHES OR BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD.
SURFACE FLOW IS NEARLY DUE SOUTH BUT SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL
POSSIBLY KEEP DIRECTION FROM THE SSE AT SOME OF THE TERMINALS.

KOB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 733 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015/

AVIATION...
PERSISTENT TROUGH ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA WILL RESULT IN LIGHT SSE-
SSW SURFACE WIND ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WITH CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ALONG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES AROUND 15-17Z. THESE CELLS WILL THEN
MOVE ONLY SLOWLY TO THE NORTH SO JUST INLAND OF THE EAST COAST
TERMINALS. THUS, LEFT VCTS IN FOR ALL THOSE TAF SITES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

KOB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 409 AM EDT MON AUG 3 2015/

SHORT TERM (MON-WED)...

SOUTH FLORIDA SURFACE FLOW TODAY, WHICH WILL BE A RESULT OF LOW
PRESSURE IN NORTHERN FLORIDA AND SURFACE RIDGE AXIS NEAR THE LAKE
REGION, WILL PLACE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE INTERIOR
AND PARTS OF THE EAST COAST TODAY. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY,
CONVERGENCE WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN THE SOUTHWESTERLY MIDLEVEL FLOW
AND THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. H7-H5 LAPSE RATES ARE A
LITTLE STEEPER, HOWEVER THE FREEZING LEVEL MAY CLIMB ABOVE 15KFT
FOR THE FIRST TINE IN A FEW DAYS. ONCE AGAIN STORMS CAN PRODUCE
SOME STRONGER WIND GUSTS. INTO TONIGHT AND TUESDAY, THE PANHANDLE
LOW MOVES NORTHEAST TO THE GA/SC COAST AS THE RIDGE AXIS POKES
DEEPER INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE WIND PROFILE WILL THEN ONLY BE
GOVERNED BY THE SURFACE RIDGE WITH DEEPER, ALTHOUGH STILL LIGHT
TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS SHOULD PUSH THE AREA OF MOST
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS/BEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE CLOSER TO THE
INTERIOR ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, POPS WILL STILL
REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM AS INCREASINGLY
WEAKER SURFACE FLOW WILL ALLOW MORE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
WITH THE SEA BREEZE.

LONG TERM (THU-MON)...

SIMILAR PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. GUIDANCE AND NAVY
MODEL STILL INDICATING A SIGNIFICANT SLUG OF DRY AIR (SAHARAN AIR
LAYER) APPROACHING NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK, LIMITING THE COVERAGE
OF THUNDERSTORMS BUT PERHAPS ALLOWING THEM TO PACK A LITTLE MORE
OF A PUNCH. INTO THE WEEKEND, THE SURFACE AND MIDLEVEL TROUGH
OOZE BACK DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD, AS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC/GULF
OF MEXICO RIDGE IS DIVIDED. STORMS MAY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AGAIN
NEAR THE END OF THE WEEKEND/FORECAST AS THE DRY LAYER DEPARTS.

MARINE...

SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS AVERAGING AROUND
10 KNOTS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY THIS WEEK
WITH SEAS AROUND 2 FEET OR LESS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE
ACROSS THE GULF WATERS AND BECOME MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY AND
NIGHT ALONG THE ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH MAINLY THE FIRST HALF OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. MUCH DRIER AIR MAY KEEP ACTIVITY ISOLATED OVER
THE ATLANTIC WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  77  92  78  91 /  40  40  20  40
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  90  80  90 /  30  30  20  40
MIAMI            78  91  79  90 /  20  30  20  40
NAPLES           76  91  76  92 /  10  40  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10/CD
LONG TERM....10/CD
AVIATION...10/CD


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