Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMFL 011125
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
625 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.AVIATION...
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ASHORE THE SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. KEPT VCSH AT KPBI
THROUGH 14Z TO COVER AND WILL WATCH OTHER SITES IN CASE SHOWERS
COME CLOSE. OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR SE FLORIDA.
IN THE INTERIOR AND GULF COAST, PATCHY FOG WILL BE AROUND THROUGH
MID-MORNING BUT SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM KAPF, ALTHOUGH IFR CEILINGS
WILL PERSIST AT KAPF THROUGH 15Z AND POSSIBLY LONGER. OTHERWISE,
EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL AT AROUND 10-15 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS FOR ALL SITES, A BRIEF GULF BREEZE IS
POSSIBLE AT KAPF LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

10/CD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 337 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015/

SHORT TERM...

RELATIVELY DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY, AS
PWATS FALL OFF PER MODEL SOUNDINGS AND FORECASTED RH DROPS AT H85
AND H7. HOWEVER, SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT/WEAK TROUGH WILL STILL
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS, ALONG THE WEST COAST BY THIS AFTERNOON.
ALSO, SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL STILL BE AROUND THIS MORNING ALONG
THE EAST COAST, WHEN COMBINED WITH EASTERLY WINDS, TO NECESSITATE
AT LEAST A SLGT CHC POP DESPITE DRY MODEL PROJECTIONS. HIGHS
TODAY SHOULD BE AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AT ALL
LOCATIONS, WITH THE DRENCHING RAINS OF SATURDAY GONE. THE CENTER
OF A CLOSED H5 RIDGE WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO TONIGHT, WITH ABUNDANT
SINKING AIR THROUGH THIS MIDWEEK OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP A COLD FRONT WELL NORTH MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE WEST COAST, WITH THE UPPER RIDGE MOVING
LITTLE. H85 TEMPS POSSIBLY MAX OUT AT 16C ON THE WEST COAST BY
WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...

AN UPPER TROUGH STUCK ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS MUCH OF THIS WEEK,
WILL FINALLY EXERT ENOUGH INFLUENCE ON THE UPPER RIDGE, SUCH THAT IT
BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST BY LATE WEEK. ALTHOUGH THE LONG RANGE MODELS,
ESPECIALLY THE OPERATIONAL GFS, ARE KNOWN TO BREAK DOWN THIS TYPE
OF REGIME TOO SOON, BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS ARE SHOWING A FRONT STALING
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA BY NEXT FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER THIS MAY
PROVE TO BE TOO PESSIMISTIC OF A SOLUTION. ANY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL THE SOUTHWEST CONUS TROUGH ITSELF, MOVES EAST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY, BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

MARINE...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE FOR OFFSHORE PALM BEACH COUNTY
UNTIL TONIGHT. WAVES WILL BE ABOVE 7 FEET ALONG THE GULF STREAM
TODAY WITH 20 KT SUSTAINED EASTERLIES THIS MORNING. ALSO THERE
WILL BE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH TONIGHT ALONG THE EAST
COAST BEACHES DUE TO WIND AND SMALL SWELL. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
FROM 10-15 KTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MIDWEEK UNDER A DRY STAGNANT
PATTERN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  82  69  82  70 /  30  10  10   0
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  71  80  70 /  20  10  10   0
MIAMI            82  71  82  69 /  20   0  10   0
NAPLES           84  66  82  66 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR FLZ168-172-173.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ650-670.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$


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