Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 251155
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
755 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016

.UPDATE...
An upper level ridge is building over the region today. Along with
moisture dropping today, last nights sounding come in with PWATs
of 1.66 inches, and the GFS is showing between 1 inch and 1.35
inches, there should be less coverage of showers and storms
today, than yesterday. The HRRR is showing this trend downward
over much of South Florida as well. Have adjusted the PoPs to show
a slightly better chance in Southwest Florida, but a little less
coverage this morning in the eastern half of the area, especially
north of I75. Other tweaks in the grids are mainly to account for
current conditions, with no true trend up or down, just an
initialization, with the diurnal curves adjusted to be in line with
the initialization.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR is forecast through the TAF period as the predominate
conditions at all TAFs sites this morning. There is a chance of
showers over the southwest area of Florida, but the convection
is not forecast to have an impact on any TAF sites at this time.
The wind will increase through the day, and may relax some
overnight, but not forecast to go light and variable.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 447 AM EDT WED MAY 25 2016/

SHORT TERM...
The morning surface map shows a ridge of high pressure stretching
from northern Florida to near Bermuda. This strengthening high
will nudge the surface front a bit further south, bringing drier
air further south over South Florida. Still today just enough low
level moisture will remain in place across the southern Peninsula,
and with good diurnal heating and cool air aloft still expect a
few showers and thunderstorms to develop. Highest chances will be
depicted south and west of Miami into the southwest interior.

A moderate risk of rip currents will be present at the Atlantic
Beaches today due to the easterly winds.

Today`s general pattern will continue Thursday, though guidance
shows some potential for a slight increase in moisture southeast
coastal areas late in the day as the upper low drifts back west
toward the peninsula. Also some hint in the guidance of a few
shallow streamer showers in the moist easterly low level flow.

LONG TERM...
By late in the week, medium range guidance is coming into better
agreement that the upper low north of the Bahamas will develop a
stronger surface reflection. This inverted trough or surface
cyclone will drift northwest toward a developing weakness in the
ridge over the southeastern states, but will not be in a
particular hurry to do so. Although there is uncertainty in the
track of any system that develops, South Florida should remain on
the subsident southwest side of the system. However, the door
will be open for deep tropical moisture to move back north over
the area as the boundary over the southern tip of Florida today
dissipates. Given the uncertainty in the details, the forecast
will be typical of the wet season with afternoon rain and
thunderstorm chances focused over the interior and nocturnal
chances focused over the waters.

MARINE...
With the strengthening ridge of high pressure north of the area
today, a fresh easterly breeze will dominate. High resolution
guidance and ensemble means show sustained winds in the 15 to 20
knot range this afternoon over the open Atlantic waters off South
Florida. For this reason have held off on issuing a Small Craft
Advisory for now. Some chance slightly stronger winds may develop
for a few hours late this afternoon or evening. Later forecasts
should be monitored in case an advisory becomes needed. Seas of 3
to 5 feet and occasionally to 6 feet are forecast to accompany the
winds in the offshore Atlantic waters. A fresh easterly breeze is
also expected in the offshore Gulf waters tonight.

As the ridge breaks down late Thursday into Friday, winds and
seas will diminish somewhat. For now, the surface cyclone that
may develop between the Bahamas and North Florida is expected to
remain far enough away from our area to preclude significant
winds and seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  86  72  84  73 /  10  10  20  20
Fort Lauderdale  86  74  85  76 /  10  10  20  40
Miami            87  73  86  76 /  20  10  20  20
Naples           92  68  88  69 /  30  10  10   0

&&

.MFL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....22/KS
AVIATION...13/SI



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