Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 042020
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
320 PM EST Sun Dec 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Ridge axis centered over the Carolinas extending across Florida
will gradually move eastward today into Monday as strong closed
upper level low travels east across the southeast plains. This
will keep a moderate east wind flow across the area today and
gradually shift southeast tonight into Monday with an increase
in cloud cover compared to yesterday. Moisture content is still
very shallow for convection to occur this afternoon but a few
streamer showers could not be ruled out over the Atlantic moving
a few miles into the coast.

The upper level low will bring a cold front increasing the
development of showers across the area into next week. Models
continue to show very shallow moisture Monday and more abundant
into Tuesday as this front gets closer to South Florida. As
this low lifts northeast, the showers will be limited to the
Gulf coast and Lake Okeechobee areas and less chances into the
southeast coast. Expect temperatures and the humidity increasing
in a more southerly flow with above normal temperatures Monday and
Tuesday.

By mid week into early next weekend, the front stalls over South
Fl as the mid/upper low exits the region keeping front behind
over the area. This will provide a cloudy and wet end of the week
with chance of scattered showers across the area. A stronger front
makes its way across South Florida by the end of the week with
air behind it of Arctic origin indicating cooler temperatures by
the end of the week into early weekend. The core of the coldest
air stays further north providing a short period of cooler temps
across South Fl. Low temperatures trend continue to show to drop
into the 40s Saturday night interior and west and upper 50s and
60s along the southeast coast with highs in the 70s.

&&

.MARINE...
East winds veer to the SE and increase a little tonight and
Monday, with caution conditions through Monday. Winds could
reach 20 knots into Tuesday over the Atlantic waters before
decreasing as the front stalls over the region. The stronger
front will make its way across South Florida by the end of
the week increasing winds into Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions should be dominant, but cant rule out periods of
MVFR CIGS through tonight. Have placed TEMPO ceiling restriction
groups at KPBI and KFLL where SC has been thickest/lowest. ESE
winds around 15 knots this afternoon /some gusts possible by
frequent low enough to exclude from TAFS/, diminishing to 5-10
knots overnight, then 12-15 knots Monday, more out of the
southeast than east.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...The rip current risk will remain elevated
through early Monday with moderate SE winds. The winds begin
to decrease and shifts towards the south to southwest Monday
into Tuesday diminishing the rip current risk on the Atlantic
side but will increase some at the Gulf beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  74  84  75  86 /  20  20  20  20
Fort Lauderdale  76  82  76  82 /  20  20  10  20
Miami            75  83  75  84 /  20  20  10  20
Naples           70  81  71  82 /   0  30  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday morning for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&


DISCUSSION...67/MT
MARINE...67/MT
AVIATION...23/SK
BEACH FORECAST...67/MT





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