Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 211727
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1227 PM EST Wed Feb 21 2018

.AVIATION...
High pressure will continue to dominate, producing mainly dry
conditions and east wind averaging 15 KT. There will be a layer of
near-saturation between 2-5KFT, so broken ceilings, potentially
MVFR, are possible at times.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 939 AM EST Wed Feb 21 2018/

UPDATE...
Quite warm morning is ongoing with humid conditions and moderate
east wind. Forecast is on track with generally rain-free
conditions and temperatures currently approaching 80 degrees
topping out in the low to mid 80s this afternoon. Naples is on
pace to tie a daily record warm low temperature of 70 degrees from
2014.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 345 AM EST Wed Feb 21 2018/

DISCUSSION...

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY: South Florida weather will continue to be
driven by the large upper level ridge now centered to our northeast
off the coast of the Carolinas. The ridge is forecast to strengthen
over the next 24 hours as it becomes more east west oriented across
Florida. The same general pattern we`ve seen over the past few days
will continue, with a robust pressure gradient leading to breezy
easterly flow across the area. Models show a relative minimum in any
rain chances through mid-morning, with a modest increase into this
evening and overnight as the next low level disturbance passes to
our south. While model consensus keeps the bulk of this feature`s
associated moisture to our south over the Keys and FL Straits,
enough will reach into South Florida for isolated to widely
scattered showers into the day on Thursday.

Lack of Gulf breeze development will allow temperatures along the
Gulf coast and western interior to climb into the mid to upper 80s.
The eastern side of the region will hold a little closer to normal
in the low to mid 80s.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY: Models remain consistent in showing the
upper level ridge weakening as it`s center slides west across the FL
peninsula and Gulf of Mexico into this weekend. Low level ridge axis
migrates southward at the same time, veering flow more southeasterly
into the upcoming weekend. Passing low level disturbances/pockets of
higher moisture will be enough to bring periods of showers, mainly
for the Atlantic/east coast. Temperatures continue in the low to mid
80s, with overnight lows in the 60s over the interior and Gulf and
low 70s along the east coast.

The weakening ridge will allow the next front that traverses the
southeastern US to make it a little further south early next week.
Models differ on how far south this will be, but the GFS at least
suggests that it may come close enough to bring an increase in rain
chances after Tuesday.

MARINE...No changes to the ongoing pattern through the remainder of
the week as a strong western Atlantic ridge remains in control.
Moderate to fresh east-southeast winds will continue, with speeds 10
to 15kts for the Gulf and at least 15 to 20kts for the Atlantic.
Winds over the Atlantic may see sustained at 20kts at times, but
right now no periods look prolonged enough to warrant advisories.
Seas 3-4ft in the offshore Gulf and 3-5ft, occasionally 6ft in the
Atlantic. Occasional Atlantic showers are expected through most of
the period.

BEACH FORECAST...Breezy easterly flow will lead to a high risk of
rip currents on Atlantic beaches through the remainder of the
week. The risk may be especially notable along the Palm Beach
County coast Thursday and Friday as a 2-3ft NE swell is forecast
to impact the region.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  72  84  72  83 /  20  20  30  20
Fort Lauderdale  74  83  73  83 /  20  20  30  20
Miami            73  83  72  84 /  20  20  20  20
Naples           69  87  67  85 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

UPDATE...23/SK
DISCUSSION...88/ALM
MARINE...88/ALM
AVIATION...23/SK
BEACH FORECAST...88/ALM






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