Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 231224
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
724 AM EST Thu Nov 23 2017

.AVIATION...
Showers and thunderstorms will develop during the day across South
Florida becoming more widespread into the afternoon and evening.
Therefore, VCTS has been added with SHRA in the tafs for the
afternoon. Cigs/vis will fluctuate VFR to MVFR and could briefly
fall into IFR with very heavy downpours. Overall winds will be
light and variable with the exception of any strong TSRA that
develop near the terminals that could produce gusts up to 35 knots.
Models continue to show this unsettled weather continuing tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 348 AM EST Thu Nov 23 2017/

..Stormy Thanksgiving possible for South Florida...

DISCUSSION...
Thanksgiving Day appears to be rainy over much of Florida with
thunderstorms possible as well. A mid-level trough is pushing
through the Gulf of Mexico with a surface low developing. Pre-
frontal convection is already underway, aided by passing shortwave
troughs, plenty of available moisture, and remnant boundaries around
the area. As the day progresses, shower and storm chances will trend
up. A surface low over the Gulf of Mexico will push northeastward
across the northern half of the peninsula of Florida with an
associated frontal boundary and pre-frontal convection pushing
across the region today through Friday.

Some concern exists for thunderstorms today through Friday that
are capable of producing gusty winds and heavy rainfall. The Storm
Prediction Center keeps a large portion of the area in the
marginal risk of severe weather today. A healthy low level jet
and the presence of an upper level jet provide magnitudal shear
that could allow damaging straight line wind. 500 MB temperatures
of -10 deg C or lower point to enough cold air aloft that hail is
possible with some of the strongest storms. Another threat is
that any coastal influences could produce just enough directional
shear with height to allow for funnel clouds or short-lived weak
tornadic activity. These threats will need to be monitored over
the coming 24-36 hours as the bulk of this system`s energy passes
through.

Late Friday into early Saturday, the front will pass and allow drier
air to push in. This should limit the thunderstorm chances and
keep any convection limited to elevated showers. Some wraparound
moisture could contribute moisture to make showers possible, but
they should be trending down as the weekend begins. A reinforcing
front is expected on Sunday which should have limited rain chances
and bring the drier, cooler air that will persist through mid-
week. Some moderation of the airmass near the end of the period
could allow for the return of Atlantic showers that push ashore
along the easterly flow.

MARINE...
Showers and storms ahead of the next frontal system to end the
work week. Some increase in wind and seas is possible behind the
front, but they should subside quickly and remain below cautionary
criteria. Locally gusty wind and higher seas are possible around
showers and thunderstorms.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1255 AM EST Thu Nov 23 2017/

AVIATION...
light winds over all of the taf sites, before going to a SE
direction around 10 kts on Thanksgiving day. Only exception to
this is at KAPF taf site where winds will go sw in the afternoon
hrs. Showers are starting to develop along E coast tonight and is
expected to become more widespread over the taf sites by afternoon
hrs. Therefore, VCSH for all of the taf sites on Thanksgiving day
with any SHRA conditions in the afternoon hours. Cigs/Vis should
fall into MVFR during the afternoon.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  83  66  81  64 /  70  60  50  20
Fort Lauderdale  84  70  82  66 /  60  40  40  10
Miami            85  69  82  66 /  60  40  40  10
Naples           80  68  79  65 /  60  50  40  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&


DISCUSSION...02/RAG
MARINE...02/RAG
AVIATION...23/SK







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