Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 020130
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
930 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...

UPDATED THE SHORT TERM FORECAST FOR THIS EVENING FOR THE LINE OF
SHOWERS ENTERING THE NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC WATERS EAST OF MIAMI
BEACH AND BISCAYNE BAY. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND
NO OTHER CHANGES REQUIRED TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 741 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

AVIATION...

CLOUD STREAMERS AND EMBEDDED SHOWERS OFF THE BAHAMAS ISLANDS
CONTINUE TO DRIFT WESTWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS WITH
ALL ATLANTIC COAST TERMINALS...EXCEPT KPBI AND KTMB...ASSIGNED
VCSH AS THE SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD INTO THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS. VERY BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WITH THE PASSAGE OF SHOWERS OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. FOR TERMINAL KAPF...A LINGERING
LIGHT WESTERLY WIND WILL TRANSITION LATER TONIGHT TO AN OFF SHORE
LAND BREEZE.

60

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 357 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016/

DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AT THIS POINT FOR THE FORECAST
PACKAGE. HIGH PRESSURE, WHICH HAS BEEN KEEPING US FAIRLY QUIET, IS
BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN AHEAD OF A STRONG 500MB LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH THAT IS GOING TO DIG AND DEEPEN OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS TROUGH IS SPAWNING A SFC
LOW OVER THE MID WEST, WHICH WILL QUICKLY PROGRESS TO THE EST, AND
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS LOW WILL HAVE
A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH IT THAT MODELS NO HAVE OVER NORTH
FLORIDA PANHANDLE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
INCREASED INSTABILITY OVER SOUTH FLORIDA, GIVING RISE TO
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SPAWN A
SECOND SFC LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES, WHICH WILL HELP TO
PUSH THE COLD FRONT FURTHER SOUTH. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE DIGGING SOUTH AND WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID WEST BY
THURSDAY MORNING. AS IT DIGS, A THIRD LOW, MORE CLOSELY CONNECTED
WITH THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, WILL HELP TO PUSH THE
COLD FRONT THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA BY THURSDAY MORNING, BRINGING
DRIER CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. CURRENTLY, SPC HAS NO
MENTION OF AND SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH, WITH A FRONT
APPROACHING THE REGION, THERE IS ALWAYS A CHANCE FOR AT LEAST SOME
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP, WITH THE BEST CHANCES LOOKING TO
BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TIMING WILL LIKELY BE ADJUSTED
AS THE FRONT DEVELOPS AND TIMING CAN BE BETTER DETERMINED..

AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH EASTERLY FLOW. SOME SHOWERS MAY
DEVELOP OVER THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON BUT THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO IMPACT THE TERMINALS. THE GULF COAST SEA BREEZE IS HAVING SOME
STRUGGLES REACHING APF WHICH COULD CAUSE SOME VARIABLE GUSTINESS
THERE.

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE IS WEAKENING OVER THE REGION, ALLOWING FOR
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. WITH THE WIND TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY ON TUESDAY, THE
THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS WILL QUICKLY BEGIN TO DIMINISH FOR THE
ATLANTIC BEACHES. MODELS ARE NOT CURRENTLY INDICATING ANY
SIGNIFICANT SEAS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH WAVE HEIGHTS
VARYING BETWEEN 2 AND 4 FEET IN THE ATLANTIC, AND 1 TO 4 IN THE
GULF, WITH SEAS POSSIBLY GOING TO 5 FEET AT TIMES IN THE OFF SHORE
GULF WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  76  88  74  89 /  10  20  30  50
FORT LAUDERDALE  77  87  78  88 /  10  20  40  40
MIAMI            77  88  76  90 /  10  10  40  30
NAPLES           71  88  72  87 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...60/BD
LONG TERM....60/BD



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