Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 292352 AAB
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
752 PM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017

.AVIATION...
The winds will be light and variable tonight over all of South
Florida taf sites. The winds will then increase 10 to 15 mph over
all of South Florida taf sites. The direction will be easterly at
most of the taf sites on Thursday, except for KAPF taf site where
it will become southerly in the afternoon. The weather will remain
dry along with VFR conditions at all of the taf sites through
Thursday.

&&
AVIATION...54/BNB


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 747 PM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017/

UPDATE...
Update to account for current conditions. Otherwise, the forecast
remains on track for tonight. Dry conditions are still forecast
for tomorrow for Glades and Hendry Counties, prompting a Fire
Weather Watch to be in effect tomorrow afternoon for that area.
The relative humidity has improved in interior Collier County,
which allowed the Red Flag Warning to expire at 23z.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 450 PM EDT Wed Mar 29 2017/

DISCUSSION...
High pressure continues to bring quiet, dry weather to South
Florida tonight through Friday morning. On Friday, a cold front
will move into the area. The models have backed off on PoPs for
Friday, bringing mainly a slight chance of showers. however, given
the instability around, have kept the mention of thunderstorms in
the forecast as well.

Once the front goes through, high pressure will rebuild over the
area. This will bring quiet weather back to South Florida through
the beginning of the week. Models are indicating another front
will move into the area by Tuesday, bringing the next chance for
precipitation to South Florida, with the best chances in the lake
region and Collier County.

MARINE...
Mostly quite marine conditions, with the exception of the increase
in wind over the next few days. The wind is forecast to increase
to 10 to 15 kts for Thursday and 15 to 20 kts on Friday as a cold
front move into the area. There is a chance the front could bring
some showers, and maybe even a few thunderstorms to South Florida
waters on Friday. Behind the front, high pressure will build
again, bringing quiet weather back to the regional waters.

The southeast wind of 10 to 15 kts will bring a moderate risk of
rip currents to Miami Beach and possibly the beaches of south
Broward county. Then, on Friday, the wind will increase over the
entire Atlantic coastal waters, causing the moderate risk to
expand to the entire Southeast Florida coast, and possibly bring a
high risk to the Atlantic beaches.

AVIATION...
ESE winds around 10 KT will persist along the east coast through
29/2300Z, then decrease with the loss of diurnal heating. Few/sct
fair weather cumulus will continue to pass over the peninsula
with bases 3500-4500 ft MSL, but not expecting any precipitation.
Expect light SE winds and mainly clear skies tonight.

Along the Gulf Coast, the SW sea breeze will diminish by this
evening.

FIRE WEATHER...
Dry conditions will continue across South Florida on Thursday.
This will bring possible Red Flag conditions to Glades and Hendry
Counties Thursday afternoon, thus a Fire Weather Watch has been
issued for those counties. Elsewhere, the RH values will drop into
the 40% range. Friday and Saturday will see moisture increase
across the area. however, Sunday is forecast to see Rh values drop
back down into the 30% range for Glades and Hendry Counties once
again. Collier County may also see RH in the upper 30% to low 40%
range, with the rest of the interior area seeing RH values in the
mid 40% range.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  84  68  84  68 /   0   0   0  10
Fort Lauderdale  84  71  83  73 /   0   0   0  10
Miami            85  70  83  71 /   0   0   0  10
Naples           83  66  83  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for FLZ063-066.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

UPDATE...13
DISCUSSION...13
MARINE...13
AVIATION...54/BNB
BEACH FORECAST...13
FIRE WEATHER...13




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