Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 241139
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
639 AM EST Tue Jan 24 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected to prevail at all terminals through the
TAF period. The gusty westerly winds will gradually decrease
through the rest of today, and likely becoming light and variable
late this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 335 AM EST Tue Jan 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...

NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

As of 335 AM EST...A quieter day is expected across the region as
high pressure continues to slowly build from the west. North of
the region, the strong upper-level trough/now powerful Nor`easter
that brought the severe storms to the region early Monday morning,
will continue moving up the eastern seaboard with broad upper-
level ridging in its wake across the east central CONUS. The
pressure gradient will continue to weaken across the region,
allowing northwest winds to gradually decrease throughout the day,
with wind gusts generally under 25 mph, notably less compared to
the windy conditions yesterday.

Dry weather will prevail under sunny skies. High temperatures will
top out around average for late January, generally in the mid to
upper 70s.

SHORT TERM /6 PM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...

High pressure will continue to build across the region tonight and
into the day Thursday, with mostly sunny skies, dry weather, and
light winds. The flow will begin to shift to a southerly direction
Wednesday ahead of an approaching weak frontal boundary from the
north. Patchy fog will be possible in portions of the interior
Wednesday night ahead of the frontal boundary. This frontal boundary
looks to cross the region Thursday night into Friday morning, with
limited fanfare as limited moisture will accompany it. Still,
isolated showers will be possible with the passage, especially over
the local Gulf and Atlantic waters.

High temperatures will gradually moderate to above normal during the
short term period, with highs ranging from the upper 70s to lower
80s, warmest on Thursday ahead of the frontal boundary. Low
temperatures will be chilly tonight, in the 50s for most except for
upper 40s in portions of the lake region. Lows Wednesday and
Thursday nights will range from the mid 50s to mid 60s. Wind chill
readings may dip below 45 degrees in portions of Glades, Hendry, and
inland Palm Beach counties tonight, and again on Wednesday night.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...

Behind the frontal passage, high pressure will briefly build back
into the region for at least the first half of the weekend.
Beginning Sunday, the forecast starts to become uncertain, as the
aforementioned frontal boundary lifts back north as a warm front and
possibly stalls in the vicinity of South Florida. This will allow
moisture to increase across the region, with PWAT values rising into
the 1.50 inch range, which would be near the climatological max for
this time of year. Synoptically, the region will be in a favorable
setup for a period of widespread overrunning rainfall sometime
Sunday and into Monday. There are signals for the potential of a
heavy rain event, and will continue to monitor closely over the next
few days, although it still remains uncertain at this time.

Behind the frontal passage, notably cooler air will filter in across
the region with temperatures below normal. Highs will only range
from the mid 60s to lower 70s with lows in the 50s.

MARINE...
Hazardous marine conditions continuing for small craft today...

Northwest winds will continue to decrease throughout the day, with
Small Craft Advisory conditions continuing for the Gulf through the
early afternoon, and Atlantic waters until this evening. Small craft
should exercise caution in Biscayne Bay and Lake Okeechobee, with
small craft advisory conditions ending by 7am. Seas will begin to
slowly subside as well today, decreasing below 7 feet by early this
afternoon for the Gulf and this evening for the Atlantic.

Winds will continue to lessen through midweek, and become southerly
Wednesday less than 15 knots. Seas will continue to subside into
midweek as well, 4 feet or less. Dry weather will prevail over the
local waters through Thursday before a frontal boundary approaching
the region from the north brings some isolated showers.

For more detailed winds and seas forecasts, please see the Coastal
Waters Forecast.

BEACH FORECAST...
A High Risk of rip currents will continue for the Gulf beaches at
least through this morning, with decreasing winds reducing the risk
to Moderate by this evening. For the Atlantic beaches, a combination
of elevated seas and swell will lead to a Moderate Risk of rip
currents today, with the rip current risk decreasing for all beaches
Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  78  54  78  64 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  78  59  78  68 /   0   0   0   0
Miami            79  61  80  68 /   0   0   0   0
Naples           76  57  79  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ069.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for AMZ610-630.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for GMZ656-
     657-676.

&&




AVIATION...17/AR







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