Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 211424
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1024 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...

DRY AND STABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING WITH THE 12Z SOUNDING INDICATING A PWAT OF 0.79 INCHES AND
A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL INVERSION. NO CHANGES WERE REQUIRED TO
THE SHORT TERM PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE.

60

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 724 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014/

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST. DRAINAGE WINDS
WILL OCCUR ALONG BOTH COASTS THIS MORNING WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT TO
ONSHORE FLOW LATE THIS MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH WEAKENS AND SLOWLY SHIFTS TO THE EAST.

KOB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 355 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A DRY AND RATHER BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THIS WEEK.

LATEST 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE SHOWS LINGERING LOW STRATUS ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. UNLIKE YESTERDAY MORNING
THIS LOW STRATUS SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING
AS THE SURFACE AND H5 LOW RETREAT FURTHER OUT INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL KEEP NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
DAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

BY TUESDAY A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE WILL SWING ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA. THE WEAK ACCOMPANYING
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL AND BASICALLY WASH OUT WELL NORTH OF
THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THIS FRONT IS THEN
EXPECTED TO SET UP ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BRINGING A RETURN TO
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE INTERIOR TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE POSSIBILITY
OF A FEW SEA BREEZE INDUCED SHOWERS. HOWEVER...MODEL DISCREPANCY
DOES EXIST AND MOISTURE PROFILES LOOK MEAGER SO KEPT THE FORECAST
DRY FOR NOW.

DRY WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND WITH CONTINUED
SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

AVIATION...
A GENERALLY NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD,
ALTHOUGH IT MAY FLUCTUATE FROM NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. OTHERWISE,
VFR CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD IN ON THE BACKSIDE
OF A LOW SITTING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE TYPICAL CUMULUS
CLOUDS WILL LIKELY POP UP MID DAY TOMORROW, AND POSSIBLY PUSH
INLAND IF A SEA BREEZE IS ABLE TO DEVELOP, WHICH IS EXPECTED ON
THE GULF COAST, AND MAY TRY ON THE ATLANTIC AS WELL.

MARINE...
WINDS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY NORTHERLY
AT 15-20 KNOTS. THIS COMBINED WITH AN INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY SWELL
WILL YIELD ROUGH MARINE CONDITIONS MAINLY OFF THE PALM BEACH COAST.
SEAS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 7 FEET THROUGH THE DAY AND SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO EARLY
TUESDAY. THEREFORE WILL EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 09Z
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  80  67  82  66 /  10   0  10  10
FORT LAUDERDALE  80  69  83  70 /  10   0  10  10
MIAMI            81  69  83  69 /  10   0  10  10
NAPLES           82  66  82  66 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR FLZ168.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 5 AM EDT TUESDAY
     FOR AMZ650-670.

GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30/KOB
LONG TERM....60/BD


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