Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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336
FXUS62 KMFL 240202
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
902 PM EST Thu Feb 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Low pressure area east of Florida gradually pulling away from the
area as it moves out into the Atlantic this evening. The low is
still close enough to provide some wrap-around low level moisture
on the back side across much of southern Florida. This will result
in periods of cloudiness, but it shouldn`t remain overcast for
long periods of time as the clouds are moving rather quickly
southward. Despite the clouds, any showers should remain light and
well offshore where moisture is a little deeper. Patchy fog is
expected over the interior and Gulf coast areas late tonight and
early Friday, and the extent/magnitude of the fog will be largely
dependent on how much clearing can take place between the cloudy
intervals.

Low temperatures tonight were lowered slightly based on current
trends, with upper 50s over interior locations and lower to mid
60s metro areas and coasts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 627 PM EST Thu Feb 23 2017/

AVIATION...
Main concern is the possibility of IFR ceilings after 08z-09z
tonight and lingering through 14z-15z on Friday. Light NW flow on
back side of low pressure off Florida East coast could contain
enough moisture for a period of ceilings in the 400-900 ft range
at all terminal sites during the aforementioned time frame. Not
highly confident in this happening but model guidance is pointing
at this possibility. Indicated SCT clouds below 010 at all sites
to account for the uncertainty and later forecasts will adjust as
needed. Winds become NE by 17z-18z Friday as IFR conditions
prevail, except remaining W-NW at KAPF/Naples.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued Issued by National Weather Service Key West FL/

DISCUSSION...
Currently - A broad low pressure system centered east of the
Florida peninsula is resulting in gentle to moderate mostly west
breezes. Winds are northwest on the adjacent Gulf side waters and
are increasing, a common occurrence for this time of year in a
northwest flow. Temperatures are gradually climbing into he mid to
upper 70s, with dew points mixing down to near 60. Shower
activity has trended downwards through the afternoon hours as
surface dew point depressions increased and drier air continues to
move in through the lower to mid levels. At any rate, activity
has been weak isolated.

Forecast - The previously mentioned broad low will continue to
move off to the northeast tonight through tomorrow. In it`s wake a
continental high will spread east and southeastwards through the
southeastern United States heading into the weekend, then out
into the Atlantic on Sunday. Gentle to moderate winds
will trend downwards through the remainder of this week, becoming
light and variable. Winds will then freshen out of the northeast on
Sunday as a tighter pressure gradient moves into the area. Winds
will then relax slightly and clock east to southeast as the high
spreads eastwards further into the Atlantic. Lower level ridging
will become established through this period, and nearly zonal flow
will develop aloft. All this will mean rain chances will remain
slight at best. Expect well above normal temperatures through the
forecast.

Marine...
Moderate west to northwest breezes will weaken over the next
couple of days as a low pressure system moves off to the northeast
away from the area. Winds will be strongest on our Gulf side
waters, a common phenomena with this synoptic setup. A few hours
of 15 to 20 knot winds will be possible this evening. High
pressure will move into the eastern United States through the
weekend and then out into the Atlantic early next week. Light
winds will continue heading into the weekend before the tighter
gradient associated with a high pressure system moves over South
Florida. Winds will freshen out of the northeast on Sunday, then
gradually weaken and veer as the high stretches out into the
Atlantic.

AVIATION...
Generally, VFR conditions will prevail at South Florida terminals
overnight. With that said a broad swath of high MVFR ceilings
have been steadily moving southeast and eastwards into the
southwest Florida coast. Gentle to moderate westerly breezes this
afternoon will give way to weak west to northwest winds overnight.

MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
West Palm Beach  61  82  65  84 /  10  10   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  64  82  69  83 /  10  10   0   0
Miami            63  83  68  84 /  10  10   0   0
Naples           65  80  65  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

UPDATE...59/Molleda





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