Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 251906
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
306 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO HOLD ON OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER, SOME DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, REDUCING THE CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP THE EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS
THE CWA. THIS FLOW WILL KEEP AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS
THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW. IF THE WINDS WEAKEN SOME BY WEDNESDAY,
THE RISK MAY REDUCE SOME, BUT RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH AT LEAST MOST OF THE WEEK.

AS FOR CONVECTION, THE SURFACE HIGH DOES LOOK TO STRENGTHEN SOME
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND A 500MB HIGH ALSO REMAINS IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA. ALSO, AS MENTIONED BEFORE, SOME DRIER AIR
DOES WORK ITS WAY OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL REDUCE THE COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND ALSO REDUCE THE CHANCES OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THERE WILL STILL BE A CHANCE THAT SOME
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AND A VERY SLIGHT CHANCE THAT ANY OF THEM
COULD TURN INTO A THUNDERSTORM. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON, MOISTURE
BEGINS TO RETURN, AND BY FRIDAY, ENOUGH HAS WORKED ITS WAY BACK IN
TO BRING POPS BACK UP INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY. GIVEN THE
CONTINUING EASTERLY FLOW, MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE
INTERIOR OVER TO THE GULF COAST. CHANCES WILL INCREASE SOME INTO
THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS THE AREAS THAT MAY SEE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

&&

.AVIATION...
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BRIEF MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE. THE SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST COAST ARE COMING TO AN END
DUE TO THE SEA BREEZE MOVING INLAND. SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS MAY
AFFECT KAPF THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THEN
INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 15Z ON TUESDAY. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, KEEPING THE
EASTERLY FLOW OVER ALL SOUTH FLORIDA WATERS INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS
MAY KEEP SOME ROUGH SURF ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST AND CHOPPY
CONDITIONS FOR THE LAKE AND BISCAYNE BAY THIS WEEK. THERE WILL BE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,AND THEN
INCREASE TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS BY
THE END OF THE WEEK, INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WEST PALM BEACH  78  88  77  87 /  40  20  10  20
FORT LAUDERDALE  79  87  78  87 /  30  20  20  20
MIAMI            77  88  77  86 /  30  20  10  20
NAPLES           72  93  72  92 /  30  30  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13/SI
LONG TERM....13/SI
AVIATION...84/AK


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