Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 270136
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
936 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak area of low pressure off the southeast coast will lift northeast
tonight and Tuesday. A cold front will pass through from the west
Tuesday night. An area of low pressure over the Great Lakes
Wednesday will move into the mid-Atlantic states Friday and linger
into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 930 PM Monday, regional radar showing a few showers off the
coast around the Wilmington area. Trends of surface observations
and satellite showing deep moisture continuing to increase from
the south this evening with good saturation occuring around 850 mb
as weak low pressure moves up the coast in advance of cold front
which should cross the area later tomorrow evening. The latest
15-minute HRRR model data along with the RAP and 4km NAM all
showing precipitation spreading onshore toward morning. Tweaked
the timing of the onset of this precipitation slightly, but still
have high chance PoPs coast tapering to slight chance well inland.
No changes to the forecast temperatures with lows in the mid 60s
well inland to lower 70s coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
As of 3 PM Mon...A cold front will approach from the west, while a
weak low lifts NE along the NC coast. Expect decent coverage of
showers and isolated thunderstorms through the day, best chances
along the coast early then shifting more inland in the afternoon.
Better moisture and forcing as cold front and upper trough
approach the region. High res guidance in agreement showing precip
coming in off the water early morning, mainly impacting the
Southern OBX down to the Crystal coast...and adjusted previous
pops accordingly. Will continue to cap pops at high chance with
models backing off slightly from previous runs. Low level
thickness values and cloud cover support highs in the upper 70s to
around 80.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 3 PM Mon...Unsettled through Thu then a bit drier by the
weekend. Did not make significant changes to previous forecast.

Tue night through Thu...The low will depart to the NE Tue Night
however the front will sag into the region Wed and Thu as upr low
drops into the Ohio Valley region keeping decent chc of shra
going...again will cap at 50 percent given uncertainty on coverage
and timing. Temps close to seasonal for late Sept with highs 70s
to lower 80s and lows 60s inland to around 70 beaches.

Fri through Sun...The upr low to the NW will slowly move E or NE
into the weekend. Does look like drier mid lvl air will grad spread
E pushing bulk of the precip offshore Fri into the weekend. Cont
prev fcst of slight pops imd cntrl and srn cst with no pop inland this
period. Highs will be mainly 75 to 80 with lows around 60 inland
to around 70 OBX.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term /through 00Z Wednesday/...
As of 640 PM Monday, increased cloud coverage along with continue
light SE/S winds should limit the development of stratus and fog
overnight. Numerical guidance continues to show widespread lower
ceilings and vsbys but will continue previous trends of forecast a
4000-5000 foot ceilings through the TAF period. Continue to bring
in showers by late morning on Tuesday.

Long Term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 3 PM Mon...Decent cvrg of shra into Thu with poss some
isold trsa. The precip will lead to a few periods of sub VFR thru
Thu. Drier air will work in from the W Fri with decreasing chc of
shra and mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Tuesday/...
As of 935 PM Monday, no real changes as winds continues ESE/SE at
5-15 knots with seas of 2-4 feet. As low pressure moves up the
coast, winds will increase to 10-15 knots late generally from the
SE/S. For Tuesday, E/SE winds continue at 10-15 kt with seas
generally 2-4 feet...but could see 5 ft on the outer central
waters by Tue afternoon.

Long Term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 3 AM Mon...Wind dir will be tricky much of the period. Winds
become more E to poss NE as low lifts NE just offshore late Tue
into Tue night. The low will depart Wed however the front is
expected to stall near of just W of region leading to variable
winds Wed becoming more SW late in week with speeds aob 15 kts.
Seas expected to be in the 2 to 4 foot range thru the period.
There is potential for a bit stronger winds and higher seas assoc
with the low Tue and will have to monitor later model runs.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through Tuesday evening for NCZ095-103-
     104.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CQD
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RF/CQD
AVIATION...RF/CTC/CQD
MARINE...RF/CTC/CQD



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