Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC
FXUS62 KMHX 280440
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1240 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2016
A weak cold front will approach from the west tonight and cross
the area early Friday. High pressure will build over the region
Saturday with another cold front crossing late Sunday into early
.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
As of 1240 AM Fri...No significant changes needed to previous
forecast for update. A cold front with limited moisture will
approach the area from the west late tonight. Latest radar imagery
shows isolated showers across the northern forecast area. Will
keep previous chance pops overnight, though based on latest radar
trends this may be overdone. The best chances for measurable rain
will be north of Highway 64...with amts generally light and less
than a tenth of an inch. Areas to the extreme south will likely
not see any measurable rain from this system.
The front is forecast to move into northern portions of the area
around 12Z Friday. Just ahead of the front there may be a small
window 10-13Z for patchy fog to develop ahead of the front
provided there is enough clearing as winds should be able to
briefly decouple inland. Clouds and continuing SW winds for most
of the night ahead of the front will keep temps rather mild and
expect lows in the mid to upper 50s inland and low to mid 60s
closer to the coast.
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
As of 330 PM Thu...The cold front will push across the area early
Friday morning and could see an isolated shower along the
immediate coast otherwise expect decreasing clouds through the
day. High pressure builds in from the west behind the front
bringing northerly winds across the region but only a modest
airmass change with low level thicknesses only dropping around 10m
and expect highs in the mid 60s across the OBX to mid 70s
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 am Thu...Broad surface/upper ridge builds across the
lower MS valley and southeast states Saturday. The ridge will
deamplify into Sunday as a upper trof and surface front over the
Ohio Valley move southeast move over the top of it. A warming
trend is forecast going into the weekend as winds back from
northwest Friday to west-southwest Saturday and Sunday. Highs
Saturday will range from around 70 northern Outer Banks to mid 70s
inland. By Sunday highs will range from the lower 70s northern
Outer Banks to around 80 southwest. The cold front will move
through late Sunday night and off the south coast early Monday
morning. Very little moisture associated with it and have
maintained the dry forecast. Slight cooler and drier air will move
in behind the front due to a surface ridge centered to the north.
Highs Monday will average around 5 degrees cooler. The ridge
shifts off the coast and becomes centered over the Carolinas by
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term /through tonight/...
As of 1240 AM Fri...VFR conditions currently with sct/bkn mid
clouds over the area ahead of an approaching weak front. Expect
pred VFR conditions through the period, though there will be a
small window between 10-14z where we could see some MVFR fog and
stratus develop. Any sub VFR conditions should dissipate quickly
this morning as drier northerly flow develops in the wake of the
Long Term /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 230 am Thu...VFR/dry weather forecast through the period.
High pressure across the southeast states will be the main feature
into Sunday. A dry cold front will pass through late Sunday night,
but little moisture associated with it so no rain is forecast.
Winds Friday will be NW 5-10 knots, Saturday SW around 5 knots,
Sunday WSW around 5 knots and Monday NE around 5 knots.
Short Term /through Friday/...
As of 1240 AM Fri...Latest obs show S/SW winds 10 to 20 KT with
seas around 3-4 ft ahead of an approaching cold front. Gradients
will tighten further overnight and expect 15-20 kt across the
waters with gusts around 25 kt across the coastal waters north of
Cape Hatteras overnight while seas build to 3-5 ft. The front
crosses the waters Friday morning with winds becoming northerly
10-15 KT and seas around 2-4 ft across the southern waters and 3-5
ft northern waters.
Long Term /Friday night through Tuesday/...
As of 230 am Thu...North winds 10 to 15 kt gradually diminish
Friday night as the pressure gradient loosens a broad area of high
pressure builds across the southeast states. Seas will run 2-4
feet. The high will remain in control into Sunday. By Sunday night
the ridge will weaken and shift back to the southwest as a cold
front approaches. The front will pass through the marine zones
late Sunday night and will be off the south coast Monday morning.
Winds will veer from west Sunday to northeast Monday. The pressure
gradient will remain loose, with winds no higher than 10-15 knots.
Seas will remain below 6 feet so no small craft advisories
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for AMZ150-