Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 201657
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1157 AM EST Mon Nov 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will pass through the area from the west today and
tonight, moving off the coast Tuesday. A cold front will move
through late Tuesday night and off the coast Wednesday. Areas of
low pressure will move northeast across the offshore waters
Thursday through Saturday. A dry cold front will move through
Sunday, bringing a shot of much colder air.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 930 am Mon...No significant changes needed to previous
forecast for update this morning. Latest sfc analysis shows
1026mb high pressure centered over TN/AL/MS this morning. High
pressure will continue to build in from the west, making for an
overall pleasant day, though temps will remain below normal. Low
level thickness values and sunny skies support highs in the
lower to mid 50s for the Outer Banks, and mid 50s to upper 50s
inland.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
As of 230 am Mon...With the surface ridge overhead, clear skies
and calm winds are forecast throughout. There will be the
potential for frost for those coastal counties that have not yet
ended the growing season (Mainland Hyde and Pamlico)...with
temps dropping into the mid to upper 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 230 AM Mon...High pres will slide offshore Tue with
increasing clouds and warmer temps as low lvl flow becomes SE
to S. Highs will be well into the 60s across much of the area.
An area of low pres will lift NE just off the coast Tue night
and depart to the NE Wed. Expect decent coverage of showers to
spread across the region Tue Night and cont likely pops most
areas with good chc deep inland. The showers will end from W to
E Wed morn as the low departs with decreasing clouds and
increasing N winds. Temps will be mild Tue night with lows
mostly in the 50s. Shld reach upr 50s to mid 60s Wed before
better CAA kicks in. Dry and cool Wed night as high pres builds
in with lows mid/upr 30s inland to mostly 40s beaches.

Low confidence for the Thu thru Sat period. Models agree
that a couple areas of low pres will lift NE off the coast
however track and timing differ. Leaned a little closer to ECMWF
with mainly dry conditions Thu and Fri with just slight pop
cst. For the late Fri night and Sat time period added a small
pop cst per ECMWF showing good moisture and QPF spreading across
with another low lifting NE ahead of approaching cold front.
Cool temps cont Thu and Fri with N/NE winds highs mostly in the
50s. On Sat will warm a bit ahead of approaching cold front with
lower 60s expected.

Strong cold front will cross Sat night with cold high pres
building in from the W Sun and Mon. Highs Sun will be in the 50s
and looks like mainly 40s to around 50 for Mon. Lows will
likely approach or reach freezing most inland areas Sun Night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term /through tonight/...
As of 12 PM Monday...VFR conditions will dominate the TAF
period as strong high pressure is in control of the regional
area. Skies will continue to be clear this afternoon, then a FEW
to SCT high clouds may stream through late tonight. Winds will
remain light and variable with no fog developing as dewpoint
depression is above 5 degrees. Clouds will increase tomorrow,
but remain VFR.

Long Term /Tue through Fri/...
As of 230 AM Mon...VFR expected Tue as high pres slides off the
coast. Showers expected to develop Tue night and early Wed as
low pres lifts NE off the coast. These showers will likely lead
to a few periods of sub VFR espcly closer to cst. VFR should
return later Wed as high pres builds in and the low departs.
Mainly VFR expected Thu and Fri with deeper moisture and shower
threat expected mainly E of taf sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through tonight/...
As of 930 am Mon...Latest obs show N/NW winds 10-20 kt with seas
2-5 ft this morning. Improving boating conditions forecast in
the short term as high pressure builds across the area from the
west. Northwest winds 10-20 knots this morning become 5-10 knots
this afternoon, with seas subsiding to 2-3 ft.

Long Term /Tue through Fri/...
As of 230 AM Mon...SE to S winds 10 to 15 kts expected most of
Tue and Tue night as high pres slides offshore. Winds become N
and increase Wed as the low departs and high pres builds in.
Speeds will reach 15 to 25 kts Wed aftn and cont in that range
Wed night. NE winds 10 to 20 kts expected Thu and Fri as low
pres tracks well offshore and high pres cont to the W.

Seas of 1 to 3 feet early Tue will build to 2 to 4 feet late
Tue and reach 3 to 5 feet by early Wed. As N winds increase Wed
seas will build to 5 to 8 feet by evening. Seas will slowly
subside to 4 to 6 feet Thu and cont in that range into Fri.
Confidence in wind speeds and seas heights is low Thu and Fri
as models differ significantly.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...CQD/HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/BM
MARINE...RF/CQD/HSA


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