Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 031930
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
330 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT THEN SLOWLY SLIDE OFFSHORE FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ON THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL FINALLY MOVE NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA.
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN EXPECTED THROUGH
LATE THIS EVENING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS RICH GULF MOISTURE
STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1.5"
WHICH IS AROUND +2SD ABOVE NORMAL. PERSISTENT AREA OF SHOWERS IS
FINALLY MOVING OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON WITH BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
DECK ALLOWING SURFACE HEATING WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE
70S. DESTABILIZATION IS UNDERWAY AND FURTHER WEST THUNDERSTORMS
ARE STARTING TO FIRE. THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE THIS
ORGANIZED ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN BY 00Z THEN
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION THROUGH 06Z AND
WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS AND MENTION OF SEVERE IN THE FORECAST
PRODUCTS AS BULK SHEAR INCREASES TO 40-50 KT. MAIN THREATS WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THINK THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE
ACTIVITY AFTER 06Z AND WILL DROP SEVERE WORDING AND LOWER POPS TO
LIKELY. EXPECTING LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...LOOKS LIKE THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL STALL
OVER EASTERN NC AND WEAKEN WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMING ALONG IT. DIVERGENT MODEL SOLUTIONS MAKE FOR A
TRICKY FORECAST BUT CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A PLUME OF
MOISTURE STREAKING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WILL INCREASE POPS TO 40-50% COAST AND 30-40% INLAND. THE MODELS
INDICATE DRYING OF THE COLUMN THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON WHICH
SHOULD LEAD TO DECREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. WILL STILL
HOLD ON TO CHANCE POPS THOUGH DUE TO UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH LI
VALUES -3 TO -5 EXPECTED. WILL FORECAST HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
70S (LOWER 70S OUTER BANKS).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUESDAY...

AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN WILL DEVELOP FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG
TERM AS AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW DROPS SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC
REGION THURSDAY AND BECOMES ANCHORED THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE
SLOWLY SHIFTING OUT TO SEA BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  GIVEN
THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN, FEEL UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH EVENTUAL CLEARING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: AS THE FIRST WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE EXITS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT, EXPECT A BRIEF REPRIEVE
IN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, A SFC LOW WILL BE ON ITS HEELS FROM
THE NORTHWEST AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS TOWARD THE MID-
ATLANTIC.  THIS WILL MEAN SHOWERS (SCHC THUNDERSTORMS THUR
AFTERNOON) THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  THE SFC LOW WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE
OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY. MID LEVEL DRYING WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT HELPING TO
TAPER OFF PRECIPITATION.  EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE AROUND 70
AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S INLAND TO MID 50S ALONG THE OBX.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS
THROUGH EASTERN NC SATURDAY AFTERNOON, EXPECT SUBSIDENCE FLOW BEHIND
THE DEPARTING LOW TO HELP CREATE SOME BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPS TO WARM UP A BIT, INTO THE MID 70S INLAND TO AROUND 70 ALONG
THE OBX. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUNDAY USHERING IN
RETURN FLOW TO THE AREA. THIS WILL WARM TEMPERATURE INTO THE MID 80S
INLAND TO THE MID 70S ALONG THE OBX.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY: A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH, POSSIBLY BECOMING HUNG UP ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA.
WHILE IT LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF
THIS FRONT, THE OVERALL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY LOOKS
FAIRLY DRY, SO HAVE KEPT OUT SCHC POP FOR NOW.  MAY NEED TO INCLUDE
IT IF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE LOOKS TO INCREASE. GIVEN SUCH LIGHT FLOW
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO BUILD IN, EXPECT TEMPERATURE TO BE A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN THAT OBSERVED SUNDAY.  RETURN FLOW SLOWLY
DEVELOPS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST.  THIS WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY TO REBOUND INTO THE
MID 80S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE OBX.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/...
AS OF 200 PM TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO THE REGION
UNDER SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
BRINGING POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS BUT CONFIDENCE WAS STILL
LOW ON COVERAGE. MODERATE CONFIDENCE OF IFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE AS WINDS WILL BECOME MOSTLY CALM AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BECOME TRAPPED. SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED...MOST LIKELY BELOW 1000 FEET. CEILINGS
PERHAPS COULD FALL BELOW 500 FEET INTO LIFR TERRITORY BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME. AFTER SUNRISE
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY VFR AFTER 10 AM OR
SO.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUESDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW PIVOTS
THROUGH THE AREA WITH A SERIES OF SFC FLOWS CROSSING THE AREA. THE
MOST POTENT BEING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. EXPECT REDUCED
VSBYS/CIGS EARLY THURSDAY AND OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AT THE LOW LEVEL. NOT TO MENTION REDUCED VSBYS
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS
IMPROVE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL APPROACHING
SUNDAY WITH INCREASED RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS HAVE
REALLY NOT DEVELOPED TODAY BUT THE NWPS AND ESPECIALLY THE
WAVEWATCH WAVE MODELS INDICATE 6 FT SEAS DEVELOPING OVER THE OUTER
CENTRAL WATERS SO WILL CONTINUE THE ADVISORY BUT END IT AT 8 PM
WHEN THE WAVEWATCH MODEL HAS SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 6 FT. EXPECT
SOUTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE 10-20 KT THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE
FLOW BECOMING NORTHERLY AROUND 10 KT NORTH OF OREGON INLET AND THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND LATE IN THE DAY. SEAS WILL RUN 3 TO 5 FT OUTER
WATERS AND 2 TO 4 FT NEARSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUESDAY...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PIVOTS THROUGH WITH A
SERIES OF SFC LOWS CROSSING THE AREA. THIS WILL MEAN SHOWERS THROUGH
THIS PERIOD WITH IMPROVING WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  FLOW WILL
BE GENERALLY LIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS THURSDAY AS THE SFC LOW TRAVERSES THE AREA. THE LOW EVENTUALLY
MOVES OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST WITH NORTHWEST FLOWS BEHIND IT FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.  RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT.  SEAS 3 TO 5 FOOT SEAS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SEAS
SUBSIDING SATURDAY 2 TO 3 FEET.  SEAS BUILD BACK SUNDAY, 3 TO 5
FEET.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ152-
     154.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME
NEAR TERM...JME
SHORT TERM...JME
LONG TERM...LEP
AVIATION...LEP/SGK
MARINE...JME/LEP



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