Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 301916
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
316 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TYPICAL SUMMER TIME PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO
THE WEST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SAG INTO THE AREA LATE WEEK AND
LINGER NEAR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER INLAND AREAS BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 315 PM TUE...SHORT WAVE ENERGY PIVOTING THROUGH THE LONG
WAVE EXTENDING SOUTH FRON THE GREAT LAKES TO THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO WILL SET OFF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT WILL LIKELY TAKE A
WHILE FOR THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO REACH EASTERN NC WITH WEAK
SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE AND EXPECT THE CONVECTION WILL BE WEAKENING AS
FAVORABLE DIURNAL CYCLE WANES. HOWEVER A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG
TO SEVERE THIS EVENING GIVEN DECENT SHEAR, ESPECIALLY INLAND OF
THE COAST. LINGERING SHOWERS/TSTORMS OVERNIGHT WILL BE WEAKENING
AS THEY REACH THE COAST LATER TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT LOW TO MID
70S INLAND/UPPER 70S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUE...EXPECT SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY
MORNING SHORT WAVE PASSAGE TO SUPPRESS MOST CONVECTION UNTIL LATE
IN THE DAY. SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY ALONG THE INLAND MOVING
SEABREEZE CANT TOTALLY BE RULED OUT WED AFTN SO WILL KEEP A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP, ALTHO MOST AREAS WILL BE WARM AND DRY. HIGHS MAINLY
LOWS 90S WITH UPPER 80S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUE...UNSETTLED PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM. BROAD
UPPER TROF SHARPENS AT TIMES AS NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH
THE FLOW. FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN BETWEEN AXIS OF BERMUDA HIGH TO
THE SOUTH AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE VICINITY OF THE NC/VA
BORDER. SCATTERED TO LIKELY POPS EACH DAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK SO ONLY CHANCE
POPS THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM TUE...OUTSIDE ANY OVERNIGHT SHOWER/TSTORM ACTIVITY
OVER ANY GIVEN TERMINAL, HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS
THOUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SHORT WAVE MOVING THRU THE AREA OVERNIGHT
WILL SPARK SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN NC.
COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION (AND SUBSEQUENT CHANCES FOR TEMPO
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS) IS SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE GIVEN THE
UNFAVORABLE DIURNAL CYCLE TENDING TO WEAKEN CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.
WILL HAVE JUST VCSH FOR THIS TAF CYCLE UNTIL BETTER TIMING AND/OR
COVERAGE OF POSSIBLE LOWER CEILINGS AND VSBYS ASSOCD WITH
SHOWERS/TSTMS CAN BE RESOLVED. EXPECT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PURE
FOG LATE TONIGHT GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER VIA CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS AND LIGHT STIRRING OF THE BNDRY LAYER VIA SFC WIND. SOME
PATCHY FOG CUD DEVELOP WHERE ANY HEAVIER RAIN MIGHT FALL
OVERNIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 315 PM TUE...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOCALLY LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT ALL 4
TERMINALS. SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS
BY DAY AND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AT NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUE...SW WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SPEEDS REACHING 15 TO 20 KTS LATE AS SFC TROF STRENGTHENS TO
THE W. GRADIENT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TIGHT OVER THE REGION TONIGHT
WITH CONT SW WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS...POSS SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT DURING
EVENING. THESE INCREASING WINDS WILL LEAD TO SEAS BUILDING TO 3 TO
5 FEET WITH 4 TO 6 FOOT SEAS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP CNTRL WTRS
TONIGHT AND CONT SCA FROM LOOKOUT TO OREGON INLET THRU WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 PM TUE...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE
LONG TERM. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING IN
THE VICINITY OF THE VA/NC BORDER WITH THE AXIS OF THE BERMUDA HIGH
TO THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS...BUT
WAVE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW 4-6 FOOT SEAS INTO THE WEEKEND FOR
THE WATERS FROM OREGON INLET TO CAPE LOOKOUT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 PM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
     SUNDAY FOR AMZ156.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...BTC/HSA
MARINE...BTC/HSA



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