Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 301826
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
226 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 2 PM...CONTINUED MILD AND MUGGY CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. LIGHT S/SW WIND SHUD PREVENT WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG BUT SHALLOW PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT WITH PLENTY
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE. WILL CONT SLGT CHC POPS MAINLY
ACROSS INLAND AREAS THROUGH EARLY EVE. CHANCES FOR PRECIP
OVERNIGHT LIMITED GIVEN LACK OF FORCING MECHANISMS BUT CANT
TOTALLY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN THE MOIST BNDRY LAYER. LOWS
AROUND 70 INLAND AND MID 70S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM...UPR RIDGE RMNS ACRS THE AREA WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH
RIDGING IN AT THE SURFACE WITH A WARM AND MOIST S-SW LOW LVL FLOW.
CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED WITH THE UPR HIGH IN PLACE BUT MAY SEE
SOME ISOLD CONVECTION DURG THE AFTN ACRS INLAND AREAS WITH THE
SEABREEZE BEING THE MAIN FOCUSING MECH. TEMPS CONT WARM NEAR 90
INLAND AND MID 80S ON THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SAT...THE DOMINATING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS
THE BERMUDA HIGH CONTINUES TO BRING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH BUILDS INLAND THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
PATTERN AND INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 2
INCHES... WILL ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION. MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL MAINLY BE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH
AS THESE FEATURES WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
30/40 POPS FOR EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. BY MID TO LATE
WEEK...MODELS HAVE A TAIL END A COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE COVERAGE AREA. EXPECTING LITTLE CHANGE TO
TEMPERATURES AND DEW PT WITH THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BY FRIDAY...THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL STRENGTH ONCE AGAIN.

LOW LEVEL THICKNESS SUPPORT...HIGH TEMP TO BE NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT...HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S AND
LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM...LIGHT SOUTH WINDS/BNDRY LAYER MIXING SHUD HELP DETER
FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT BUT SHORT INTERVAL SUB-VFR POSSIBLE.
HAVE INCLUDED MVFR RESTRICTIONS IN FOG AT ALL TAF SITES AFT ABT
08Z UNTIL ABT 13Z.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 215 PM SAT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE UNDER A
PERSIST HIGH PRESSURE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON/EVENING
CONVECTION THIS WEEK WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT IN THE
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM...WINDS VEER S/SW TONIGHT 10 KT AND INCREASE TO 10-15
KT ON SUNDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL RANGE 2
TO 4 FT THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGHEST OUTER CNTRL WTRS.

LONG TERM /SUN NIGHT THROUGH THU/...
AS OF 215 PM SAT...MAIN FEATURE FOR IS THE BERMUDA HIGH DOMINATING
THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE S/SW 5 TO 15
KTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...HSA/BM
AVIATION...JAC/BM
MARINE...JAC/BM







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