Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 301400
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1000 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WORK WEEK FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
AS OF 10 AM TUE...NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH FORECAST. HAVE DECREASED
CLOUDS EARLIER AS CLEARING HAS TAKEN PLACE. STILL EXPECTING SOME
DIURNAL SCT STRATO CU DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH NEAR CLIMO
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/NEAR 80.

AS OF 640 AM TUE...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS WEAK LOW OFF THE GA
COAST...WHILE A SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF THE NC COAST THIS
MORNING. SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT ENE THROUGH THE
DAY...REMAINING WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS -RA
MOVING OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS
DEVELOPED THIS MORNING WITH MOIST BL...LIGHT N/NE FLOW...AND
SHOULD BURN OFF BETWEEN 8-10AM. OVERALL VERY NICE DAY EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION WITH WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES...850MB TEMPS 13-14C AND N/NE FLOW SUPPORT HIGHS 75-80
DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUE...QUIET AND PLEASANT NIGHT EXPECTED...WITH UPPER
LOW AND WEAK FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS. AREAS OF PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS POSSIBLE AGAIN.
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S/MID 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM TUESDAY...EXPECT MID-LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND TO LEAD TO DRY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. GFS/ECMWF SHOW SOME MOISTURE IN LOWER LEVELS
BOTH DAYS...BUT ANTICIPATE JUST SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S BOTH DAYS. NO BIG CHANGES IN
TIMING WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
ACTUAL FRONTAL PASSAGE EXPECTED SOMETIME LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MODELS DEPICT A BROKEN LINE
OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH A RIBBON OF INSTABILITY. WILL INCLUDE A SMALL
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE SCATTERED SHOWERS LATER
FRIDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST ECMWF IS A LITTLE SLOWER
TO CLEAR THINGS OUT SATURDAY MORNING...BUT WITH SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING EAST...EXPECT CLEARING SKIES BY MIDDAY SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER FALL-LIKE AIR FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LATEST
GUIDANCE SHOWS SUNDAY MORNING BEING THE COOLEST WITH LOWS IN THE 50S
OVER MUCH OF THE CWA WITH SOME UPPER 40S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR
SOME OF THE NORMALLY COOLER INLAND LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM TUE...MIXED BAG OF CONDITIONS CURRENTLY RANGING FROM
LIFR TO VFR WITH AREAS OF FOG AND STRATUS ACROSS THE REGION. FOG
AND STRATUS SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT BETWEEN 12-14Z GIVING WAY TO PRED
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH LIGHT N/NELY FLOW. PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS
POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT AND EARLY WED MORNING WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...CALM WINDS AND DECENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM TUESDAY...EXPECTING GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...EXCEPT FOR SOME POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT FOG REDUCING VSBY
TO MVFR/IFR FOR A BRIEF TIME. A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
FEW TSTMS WILL ACCOMPANY A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION
FRIDAY EVENING AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS.
THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE DRY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 640 AM TUE...LATEST OBS SHOW N/NE WINDS 5-15KT...WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT ACROSS THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS...AND
SEAS 2-4FT. LITTLE CHANGE TODAY...RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
OFFSHORE THIS MORNING WITH SHORTWAVE. WEAK SFC LOW WILL REMAIN
WELL TO THE SOUTH TODAY...AND GENERALLY EXPECT N/NE 15KT OR LESS
WITH SEAS 2-4FT TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM TUESDAY...LONG FETCH NORTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN STRONG
NORTH ATLANTIC LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE LOCKED OVER NEW ENGLAND WITH A
POWERFUL LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY WILL CONSPIRE TO LEAD TO A PERIOD
OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. BOTH THE
LOCALLY RUN NWPS/SWAN MODEL AND WAVEWATCH SHOW SEAS AT 6 FEET
STARTING WEDNESDAY EVENING AND PERSISTING INTO SATURDAY WITH A
MODERATE NORTHEAST THROUGH FRIDAY BEFORE WINDS VEER TO S/SW AHEAD OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN BECOME NW BEHIND THE FRONT
ON SATURDAY. WITH A SLACKENING GRADIENT AND OFFSHORE FLOW...SEAS
WILL FINALLY START TO SUBSIDE BY SUNDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK/CQD
NEAR TERM...CQD/TL
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...CTC
AVIATION...CTC/CQD
MARINE...CTC/CQD






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