Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 210547

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1247 AM EST Sun Jan 21 2018

High pressure will build in from the southwest tonight and
Sunday then slide offshore Monday. A cold front will move
through Tuesday. High pressure will build in from the northwest
late next week then pass offshore next weekend.


As of 1245 AM Sunday...Quiet conditions continue with strong
high pressure builds to our south. Skies will remain clear
overnight with lows generally in the low/mid 30s, except around
40 on the Outer Banks. No major changes needed to the forecast
at this time.


As of 220 PM Sat...High pres over the region in the morn will
begin to shift offshore late in the day. Atms remains quite dry
with mclr skies cont. Will be a little milder with warmer inland
spots reaching mid/upr 60s with upr 50s to around 60 beaches.


As of 3 AM Saturday...Mild weather is expected through the
extended period. A cold front will bring a threat of showers and
perhaps an isolated thunderstorms on Tuesday, mainly in the
morning. Otherwise dry conditions are expected for the extended

Sunday Night through Monday...High pressure will drift offshore
Sunday night into Monday as moisture increases ahead of an
oncoming cold front. Mild temperatures are expected with highs
mid to upper 60s for Monday in S/SE flow. The GFS, which is the
fastest of the models with regards to arrival of precipitation,
keeps the area dry on Monday and will continue to keep
precipitation to the west of our CWA Monday afternoon.

Tuesday...There is good consensus between the ECWMF and Canadian
with timing of precipitation through the area Tuesday morning
before exiting the coast during Tuesday afternoon. The
ECMWF/Canadian are also a bit wetter than the GFS, indicating
perhaps up to one-quarter inch of rain with this system. There
is some weak instability indicated during Tuesday with some
decent shear/helicity indicated around midday, so have included
a slight chance of a thunderstorm. Went with the cooler European
and Super Blend guidance indicating highs in the mid 60s, versus
the very warm mid 70s indicated by the GFS MOS. PoPs ramp up
from chance early Tuesday morning to likely through midday then
taper off as precipitation moves offshore Tuesday afternoon.

Wednesday through Friday...Temperatures return to normal to just
below normal behind the front for mid to late week with highs
generally in the 50s, with upper 40s northern Outer Banks and
nighttime lows in the 30s to lower 40s. Mostly sunny skies
expected for the period, before moisture increases and brings in
another chance of precipitation by the weekend.


Short Term /through Sunday/...
As of 1245 AM Sunday...Clear skies and light winds will prevail
through this TAF cycle with VFR conditions expected. A very dry
boundary layer should preclude any fog formation during the
early morning hours.

Long Term /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...
As of 310 am Saturday...VFR conditions are expected Sunday night
into Monday. Increasing moisture ahead of a cold front will
lead to scattered showers, starting late Monday night and
continuing to around midday Tuesday before the precipitation
moves east of the TAF sites. Some embedded thunderstorms are
possible given some weak instability and decent low-level shear.
Some periods of sub-VFR conditions are Monday night and Tuesday
before returning to VFR Tuesday night and Wednesday.


Short Term /Tonight and Sunday/...
As of 1245 AM Sunday...SW winds continue a bit gusty over the
central waters with 10-15 knots with a few gusts to 20 knots,
especially around Diamond Buoy. Winds should subside on Sunday
with generally W/NW winds at 5-10 knots with seas of 2-3 feet.
For Sunday, except to seas to be 1 to 3 feet.

Long Term /Sunday Night through Wednesday/...
As of 220 PM Saturday...Update...increased winds to 20 to 30
kts late Mon night into Tue evening with seas reaching 6 to 9
feet outer waters.

Prev disc...Light NW/W winds under strong high pressure will
back to more SE/S on Monday night and increase to 15-20 knots
ahead of an oncoming cold front. A short window of Small Craft
Advisory conditions are likely Tuesday ahead of the cold front
as SW winds of 15-25 knots with gusts to 30 knots are likely
with seas building to 4-6 feet, especially south of Oregon
Inlet. By Tuesday night and Wednesday behind the front, N winds
should drop of to 5-15 knots with seas at 2-4 feet.





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