Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 012320
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
720 PM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH ALONG
THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS WEEKEND. A TROF OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 PM TUE...SHOWERS ACROSS HYDE...DARE AND TYRRELL COUNTIES
HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING. SOME SHOWERS WELL
OFFSHORE HAVE STARTED TO DEVELOP...BUT EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL. AS
GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS...EXPECT SOME THIN CIRRUS TONIGHT TO MOVE
THROUGH. WITH WEAK FLOW AT THE SFC...ANTICIPATE PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S
INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...TROF OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE JUST WEST OF
COASTAL PLAIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS RATHER DRY SO WILL NOT INCLUDE
ANY MENTION OF PRECIP. LIGHT NORTHWEST DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND LOTS
OF SUNSHINE WILL PUSH HIGHS INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S MOST
LOCATIONS WITH UPPER 80S IMMEDIATE COAST AND OUTER BANKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUES...
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MIDLEVEL
SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO EASTERN NC FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...LEADING
TO ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DURING PEAK HEATING.
CHANCES ARE EVEN BETTER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS ANOTHER WEAK MID DISTURBANCE AND STRONGER
SFC REFLECTION OF THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL THRU FRIDAY WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW 90S INLAND AND
UPPER 80S COAST THUR AND FRI. SATURDAYS TEMPERATURE WILL DROP A
FEW DEGREES WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DRIER AIRMASS WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER...BUT HAVE INCLUDED ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUN THROUGH TUESDAY. MODELS
ARE SHOWING THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. IF MODELS CONTINUE THESE TRENDS...PRECIP CHANCES
CAN INCREASE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS RANGING MID/UPPER 80S INLAND AND
LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WED/
AS OF 7 PM TUE...AFTERNOON CU FIELD HAS DISSIPATED THIS EVENING
LEAVING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM THIS
EVENING BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH
BOUNDARY LAYER RH WILL RESULT IN AREAS OF MVFR FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT
WITH ISOLATED IFR POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST...MAINLY PGV.
FOG WILL MIX OUT QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE LEAVING CU DEVELOPMENT
AGAIN FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /WED NIGHT THROUGH SUN/
AS OF 330 PM TUE... MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED
CONVECTION EACH DAY. CAN LIKELY HAVE BRIEF PATCHY FOG/STRATUS
EACH MORNING UNDER LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WED/
AS OF 7 PM TUE...NO SIG CHANGES TO THE UPDATE. SEAS 1 TO 3 FT.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS WILL
CONTINUE MOVING EAST TONIGHT...WHILE A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
JUST WEST OF THE COASTAL PLAIN. VERY LOOSE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE REGION WILL RESULT IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. WAVES WILL BE 2-3 FEET.

LONG TERM /WED NIGHT THROUGH SUN/
AS OF 330 PM TUE...MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BE BENIGN ACROSS THE
WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A LOOSE WIND GRADIENT. WINDS EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 1 TO 2 FEET. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...RESULTING IN A WIND SURGE OF NE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD 4 TO 5 FT MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
WATERS AND 3 TO 4 FEET SOUTHERN WATERS. IF MODEL TRENDS
PERSIST...CHANCE OF SCA IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...LEP
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...HSA/BM/LEP
MARINE...HSA/BM/LEP



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