Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 230424
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1224 AM EDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Offshore high pressure with an inland trough will be the
dominant weather features through the weekend producing hot and
humid conditions. A weak cold front will move into the region
early next week and become stationary.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 1220 AM Sunday...No changes planned. Regional rdrs show
convection well to the N and high res mdls dont show any of
this making it this far S. Mclr skies with muggy lows in 70s.

Prev disc...Made only minor adjustments to the forecast for a
bit slower cooling this evening in the hourly temperature trends
and to drop the PoPs. Upper ridging continues across the area
with high pressure anchored offshore and weak surface trough
inland. It will be another warm humid night...with lows only
76-80 degrees. Organized convection currently remains well north
of the area over the Mid- Atlantic region. While a few models
show a chance of some precipitation later tonight, like the GFS,
the majority of models including HRRR and high res NMM and ARW
keep the CWA dry with an MCS over the Mid- Atlantic weakening as
it moves SE tonight and dissipating before reaching the
forecast area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
As of 315 PM Sat...Weak surface low will move through the Mid-
Atlantic and NE, while high pressure remains anchored off the SE
coast with troughing inland. Looks like one more oppressively
hot and humid day Sunday with heat index values 105-109 degrees.
Low level thickness values and 850mb temps around 20C support
highs in the mid/upper 90s inland and upper 80s/low 90s along
the coast. Will issue another heat advisory for all counties
except Outer Banks Hyde.

SPC has the northern half of the area outlooked in a Marginal
Risk, with a sliver of Slight Risk over the Albemarle Sound and
northern Outer Banks. Shear seems to be the limiting factor with
0-6 km bulk shear less than 15 kt. Forecast soundings show very
unstable atmosphere with MU CAPE values 4-5000 J/kg, LI values -8
to -11C. Expect generally pulse type storms, though if convection
were to become organized could see storms with strong winds
develop.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 3 PM Saturday

The forecast remains in good shape with a trend
toward slightly "cooler" weather and increasing chances for rainfall
through much of the upcoming week.

Sunday night/Monday...The main players of the week will be a
disturbance now southeast of Winnipeg that will help to establish a
trof over the northeast US.  This trof will help to push a frontal
boundary that is now over the Mid Atlantic toward our area Monday,
and this feature will impact us through much of the upcoming week.

The disturbance just mentioned will be making its way through
the Lower Great Lakes Sunday evening. This southward progression
will be just enough to push the shower/thunderstorm threat that
has remained well to our north the past few days, into our
area. SPC has expanded the marginal risk for severe storms
Sunday night into the norther half of our forecast area, with a
slight risk now just touching the very northern part of our
area. The end result will be an increasing trend in thunderstorm
chances from 30% Sunday evening, to near 60% Monday evening as
a cold front gets closer to our area. The best 0-6 KM bulk shear
values remain well to our north but strong instability could
support damaging wind threat either day. PWATs or precipitable
water values also high with locally heavy rain the other main
threat. With the increased cloud cover and rain threat, along
with slightly lower thickness values temps will be 2 to 4
degrees "cooler" than this weekend.

Tuesday/Wednesday...With a cold front near or over our area Tuesday,
this appears to be another day with a decent shot (60%) of
thunderstorms through most of the area.  Model trends have been a
little slower and not as far south with the passage of the cold
front.  This will keep the risk for storms around again Wednesday,
with the highest chances across the far south in closer proximity to
the front.

Thursday and beyond...While the trof in the northeast US lifts out
and heights build in that area, an elongated weakness in the
heights aloft will remain over the carolinas. At the same time
the remnants of the frontal boundary mentioned above will
remain, with a new front approaching by early next weekend. This
will result in daily chances for thunderstorms and near normal
late July highs of around 90 inland, and 80s along the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short Term /through Sunday Night/...
As of 1220 AM Sunday...Predominate VFR conditions expected
through the period outside of convection. Decent SW breeze will
cont to limit threat for late night fog thru the period. Strong
instab will lead to wdly sct to sct shra and tsra later today
into the evening and could see brief sub VFR, but given lack of
confidence in cvrg and timing will not add to fcst yet.

Long Term /Mon through Thursday/...
As of 300 PM Sat...Cont mainly VFR Mon thru Thur however will
have better coverage of shra/tsra from time to time resulting in
a few pds of sub VFR. The best chance for this would be Monday
and Tuesday afternoon/evening. Weak front drops thru later Tue
and stalls over southern sections Wed...could see some lower
cigs assoc with the front and some late night fog.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Sunday/...
As of 1220 AM Sunday...Only change with this update was to lower
seas closer to wavewatch with no higher than 6 ft thru short
term as SWAN running 1 to 2 feet high.

Prev disc...No changes with this update. Latest observations
continue to show SW winds 10-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt across
the Pamlico Sound and central waters, and seas 2-4 feet. High
pressure will continue offshore with troughing inland through
the period continuing the S to SW flow. Moderate S/SW winds
15-25 kt will continue into Sunday, with seas building to 4-7
feet (south of Oregon Inlet). Brief period of frequent gusts to
25 kt for the waters north of Oregon Inlet this evening, with
SCA continuing for the Pamlico Sound and coastal waters south of
Oregon Inlet into Sunday.

Long Term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
As of 300 PM Sat...SSW winds of 15 to 25 kts will continue
Sunday night thru Monday evening between offshore high pres and
front/trf to the W. These winds will lead to seas of mainly 4
to 6 feet outer central and srn wtrs. Small craft advisory
remains in effect thru Mon evening per ocnl gusts aoa 25 kts and
6 ft seas. Again preferred wave watch over NWPS with sustained
winds of 20-23 kts in a southwest flow more supportive of waves
up to 6 feet and not much higher.

As front gets closer later Mon night winds and seas will slowly
subside. The front will drop Thru nrn half of region later Tue
into Tue night then stall and weaken a bit Wed over srn tier.
Expect nrn wtrs will see a period of light onshore E to NE winds
behind front Tue night into Wed while srn tier will cont with
mainly S to SW winds but shld be light. Seas will subside to 2
to 3 feet all wtrs Wed. As the front lifts northward again over
the waters later Wednesday and Thursday, south to southwest
winds return and remain generally 5 to 10 kts. Seas remain 2 to
3 feet with such light winds over the waters.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Record Max Temps for 07/23 (Sun)

Location        Temp/Year
New Bern        100/1952  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras    92/1972  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville      103/1932  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City    98/1987  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         103/2011  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville     97/1995  (KNCA AWOS)

Record Max Temps for 07/24 (Mon)

Location        Temp/Year
New Bern         99/1952  (KEWN ASOS)
Cape Hatteras    90/2016  (KHSE ASOS)
Greenville       99/2011  (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS)
Morehead City    96/1999  (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS)
Kinston         101/1952  (COOP - Not KISO AWOS)
Jacksonville     97/1995  (KNCA AWOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening
     for NCZ029-044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103.
     Beach Hazards Statement from 8 AM EDT this morning through
     this evening for NCZ095-098-103-104.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for AMZ135.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT early this morning for
     AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CQD/HSA
NEAR TERM...RSB/RF/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RF/EH
AVIATION...RF/EH
MARINE...RSB/RF/EH/CQD
CLIMATE...MHX



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