Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 292102
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
502 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Depression Eight will approach the North Carolina coast from
the southeast tonight and Tuesday and is forecast to strengthen
to a Tropical Storm on Tuesday. The system will lift northeast of
the area Tuesday night and Wednesday. A cold front is forecast to
push through the area Friday with high pressure building in from
the north this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
As of 500 PM Monday...Scattered cover of showers/tstms will
continue early this evening, then activity expected to weaken with
loss of heating thus will have lower POPs inland after 8 PM.
Latest models continue to indicate offshore activty impacting
coastal sections late evening and overnight and will keep
increasing POP trend there. Convective debris clouds inland will
dissipate this evening, then widespread low clouds expected again
overnight. Min temps mainly low to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
As of 500 PM Monday...TD 8 still forecast to strengthen to
Tropical Storm on Tuesday and per latest coordination will upgrade
to TS Warning for Carteret, Outer Banks Hyde and Outer Banks Dare.
Increased POPS to likley for coastal sections in afternoon with
scattered/chance for inland. Rainfall amounts generally from a
half to 1 inch with locally higher amounts. TS winds likely to
impact OB from Cape Lookout to Oregon Inlet during afternoon.
Highs from near 90 inland to mid 80s coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 315 AM Monday, Tropical Depression 8 will move near the NC
coast before turning abruptly NNE/NE Tuesday afternoon and
evening and gradually moving away from the coast on Wednesday in
response to frontal boundary diving south into eastern NC. Low
confidence in forecast late in the extended period as medium range
models show various solutions with tropical systems.

Tuesday through Wednesday...Track guidance continues to move
Tropical Depression 8 toward the NC coast with strengthening to a
minimal tropical storm before making a turn to the NNE/NE Tuesday
afternoon and evening as a cold front sinks south into eastern NC.
The worst conditions associated with the system would appear to
occur Tuesday afternoon with some gusty winds along the central
Outer Banks and offshore, along with periods of heavy rainfall and
perhaps some minor beach erosion. Probably a sharp moisture
gradient across the region Tuesday with some sunshine allowing
high temperatures to approach 90 inland, but with clouds/showers
holding temperatures in the mid 80s beaches. Wrap-around moisture
associated with exiting system lingers along the coast Wednesday.
Since the precipitation will be showery in nature, have continued
previous trend of 40-50 percent PoPs in the forecast Tuesday into
Wednesday.

Wednesday night through Friday...GFS/Canadian show a parade of 3
systems to affect our region between Tuesday and Friday, while the
ECMWF spins up current Gulf system (Tropical Depression 9) into a
major storm and moves it off our coast Friday. Tons of uncertainty
and little confidence in the varied solutions, so have opted to
keep a low rain chance in the forecast through this period, mainly
near the coast.

Saturday through Sunday...Cold front with strong high pressure to
the north should finally push the deeper moisture offshore by the
weekend. ECMWF/GFS show major storm offshore and moving away
Saturday, but much uncertainty in this solution. It does appear
that a shot of drier and cooler air will be in store for the
weekend with highs dropping back into the low/mid 80s and
nighttime lows into the mid 60s over much of the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term /Through Tuesday Afternoon/...
As of 100 PM Mon...VFR conditions have returned for most areas
this afternoon with the exception of OAJ. Cloud bases are at MVFR
levels but have become scattered enough to not produce ceilings.
Scattered convection will be possible this afternoon and evening
as Tropical Depression 8 nears the coast. IFR conditions are again
likely early Tuesday morning as tropical moisture continues to
flow into the region. Ceilings could form around 800 ft, with some
MVFR fog also possible between 4-8 AM. Ceilings should raise to
MVFR levels after sunrise but may linger under 3 K feet until mid
morning. VFR conditions should return region-wide around noon.

Long Term /Tuesday through Friday/...
As of 315 AM Monday, periods of MVFR ceilings will be likely in
rain bands associated with Tropical Depression 8 Tuesday night and
Wednesday before the system accelerates away from the area
Wednesday evening. While quite a bit of uncertainty exists with
the model solutions regarding the evolution and track of tropical
systems, should see primarily VFR conditions Thursday into Friday
as some drier air moves into the region behind a cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Tuesday/...
As of 455 PM Monday...NE winds 10-20 KT will continue over waters
through tonight, then increase over central waters Tuesday with
approach of TD 8 which is still forecast to strengthen to TS by
afternoon. TS warning will continue over waters from Cape Lookout
to Oregon Inlet and added TS Warning for Pamlico Sound.

Seas currently 4-6 feet expected to build to 6-8 feet by morning
and to 8-12 feet on Tuesday.

Long Term /Tuesday night through Saturday/...
As of 320 AM Monday, Tropical Depression 8 will approach the
coastal waters Tuesday morning before turning more NNE/NE Tuesday
afternoon and evening, then moving away from the coast Wednesday.
Some wind gusts to 50 knots are possible in the central waters
Tuesday afternoon and evening, before subsiding fairly quickly on
Wednesday afternoon. A strong cold front will move offshore early
Friday bringing moderately N/NE winds. Seas will peak at 11-14
feet late Tuesday evening into Tuesday night before subsiding
dramatically on Wednesday. By Wednesday night, seas should drop to
3-5 feet before increasing again behind the cold front on Friday.

Given long period swell energy and strong winds, the rip current
risk will remain high through at least midweek.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through Tuesday evening for NCZ095-098-
     103-104.
     Tropical Storm Warning for NCZ095-103-104.
MARINE...Tropical Storm Warning for AMZ135-152-154-156.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ150.
     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JBM/CQD
NEAR TERM...JBM/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...SK/SGK
MARINE...JBM/SK


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