Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 251943
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
243 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TONIGHT THEN REDEVELOP
OFF THE COAST MONDAY. THE LOW WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY...THEN PASS
OFFSHORE THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RIDGE OF SFC HIGH PRES OFF THE COAST THIS EVENING WITH A LIGHT
S/SW FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS. STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT AND CLOUDS INCREASE ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
THIS WILL HELP LEVEL OFF TEMPERATURES BY LATE EVENING AND EARLY
MORNING. LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 30S INLAND TO LOW 40S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
INTERESTING, TRANSITIONAL WEATHER DAY AS THE STRONG UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES DURING THE MORNING THEN MOVES INTO THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. OVERALL FORCING IS LIMITED FOR ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION
UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH THE ARRIVAL
OF THE COLD POOL ALOFT. WILL HAVE MOSTLY SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS
TOMORROW WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER INLAND AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE BEST INCOMING FORCING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
RISES WILL SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TOMORROW BUT BACKED OFF
MAX TEMPS A BIT GIVEN EXPECTED (BUT AT SOME TIMES VARIABLE) CLOUD
COVER. SFC LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST LATE BEFORE RAPIDLY
DEEPENING DURING LATER FORECAST PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE DEEP UPPER
TROF/DEVELOPING UPPER CUTOFF LOW PIVOTS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA.
THERMAL PROFILES AND CRITICAL THICKNESS VALUES INITIALLY SUPPORT
RAIN BUT THEN AS CAA DEVELOPS MONDAY NIGHT...INDICATE THERE WILL
BE THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO A MIX WITH AND THEN
POSSIBLE CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW BY TUESDAY MORNING. WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE/DEFORMATION ENHANCED BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIP MAY DEVELOP
AND COULD SEE A BRIEF BURST OF RAIN/SNOW MIXED OR SNOW SHOWERS
LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...MAINLY FOR THE
NORTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS. HOWEVER STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
GIVEN THE MARGINAL SFC TEMPS. AT THIS TIME THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEEING SNOW WILL BE TUESDAY MORNING...FOR AREAS NEAR THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND REGION AND THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS. NOT EXPECTING ANY
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE WARM GROUND AND
EXPECTED BRIEF PRECIP DURATION...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.

LINGERING SHOWERS OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHIFT OFF THE COAST TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE UPPER AND DEEPENING SFC LOWS MOVE TO THE NE.
CLEARING SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL THEN HIGHLIGHT THE
MIDDLE WEEK FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE 40S
BOTH TUE AND WED WITH LOWS TUE AND WED NIGHT INTO THE 20S AWAY
FROM THE COAST.

TRANSIENT UPPER AND SFC RIDGING SHIFT OVER THE AREA FOR A MODEST
WARMING TREND WED NIGHT INTO THU. ANOTHER UPPER TROF AND COLD
FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEK BUT THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE
MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE SO WILL HAVE JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW ON FRIDAY. COOLER TEMPS AGAIN FOR THE
WEEKEND...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S/MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 1 PM SUN...HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE
THE TAF PERIOD. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH
INCREASING MID TO HIGH LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE POTENT UPPER
LEVEL TROF AND SFC LOW. CEILING HEIGHTS WILL SLOWLY LOWER
OVERNIGHT AND THROUGHOUT MONDAY. SOUNDING MODELS ARE INDICATING
FOG TO DEVELOP AROUND 12Z AS THERE IS A DECENT INVERSION LAYER AND
MOISTURE. AT THIS TIME...DID NOT ADD FOG TO TAF FORECAST AS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. IF FOG DOES DEVELOP...BELIEVE IT WILL BE BRIEF
AND PATCHY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW TO MIX IN LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF SUB-VFR LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUE...THEN GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO PRED VFR TUE
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
LIGHT SOUTH FLOW OVER THE WATERS THIS EVENING AS SFC HIGH PRES
RIDGE SETTLES OFFSHORE. SW WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVER SOUTHERN
WATERS AHEAD OF SFC LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST LATER TONIGHT.
THE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES NE MONDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING W/NW AND
INCREASING TO NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE IN THE DAY.
SEAS MAINLY 2-4 FT THROUGHOUT.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM SUN...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS
THROUGH MID-WEEK. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
WATERS FROM THE WEST MONDAY...INDUCING CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE NC
COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON. SFC LOW WILL DEEPEN MOVING UP THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT. NNW WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG...15-25KT
GUSTS 30-35KT...THRU MIDWEEK AS LOW DEEPENS TO THE NORTHEAST AND
REINFORCES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE NC COAST. SCA
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND BACK TO THE W/SW AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

TRENDED WITH WAVEWATCH WITH LOCAL NWPS USUALLY OVERDONE
IN NW FLOW SITUATIONS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT N MON EVENING
THEN BUILD FURTHER TO 6 TO 9 FT TUE...HIGHEST CENTRAL AND NRN
WATERS BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THRU THURSDAY.

WITH CONTINUED GUSTY NWLY FLOW...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COULD
RESULT IN MINOR WATER LEVEL RISES FOR SOUNDSIDE AREAS OF THE OUTER
BANKS ADJACENT TO THE PAMLICO SOUND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES ALONG THE NEUSE RIVER IN KINSTON AND
CONTENEA CREEK NEAR HOOKERTON THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CQD/BM
MARINE...BTC/CQD
HYDROLOGY...BTC






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