Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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340
FXUS62 KMHX 310458
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1258 AM EDT SUN JUL 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Bermuda high pressure offshore with a trough inland will persist
through the weekend. A weak boundary will stall over the area this
morning and then lift back north by later tonight. A weak cool
front will approach from the northwest early next week then stall
near the area by mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 1255 AM Sunday, coverage of precipitation has diminished and
the threat of thunder has waned so will keep only a slight chance
of showers in the forecast overnight as radar indicates a few
dissipating showers in eastern NC. Temperatures will fall little
overnight with morning lows expected between 75 and 80 degrees for
most areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
As of 315 PM Saturday, The weather on Sunday will continue to be
influenced from by a surface trough inland with weak shortwave
energy moving through at the mid- levels. Carried a 40 to 50 PoP
across the area for showers and thunderstorms that again could
produce heavy downpours and gusty winds. It will be another hot
and humid day with highs in the low to mid 90s inland and just a
bit cooler along the immediate coast. Heat index values could
again flirt with 105. This will largely be dependent on cloud
cover and coverage of showers and thunderstorms. Did not have
enough confidence to raise a heat advisory at this point but can`t
rule out the need for tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 330 PM Saturday...Unsettled through mid week as the
mid/upper ridge breaks down and transitions to a broad trough.
High pressure builds in late week.

Sunday night into Monday...Mid/Upper level ridge continues to
break down as the broad trough over the Tennessee Valley continues
to dig south. Meanwhile, the frontal boundary slowly sinks down
from the NW, but remains to the north for most of the day. This
will provide better chances for showers and thunderstorms to
develop, especially during the afternoon and evening. Expect highs
in the low 90s inland to mid/upper 80s along the OBX.

Monday night through Wednesday...The broad trough axis will be over
NC and the slow moving cold front will finally sink down into the
forecast area late Monday night. The front will be over eastern NC
Tuesday and finally push all the way on Tuesday night. The
frontal boundary will linger along the southern coastal area
Wednesday. Good coverage of convective activity expected ahead of
front, with likely POPS all of area Monday, eastern half Monday
night and southeast third Tuesday. Some locally heavy rain
possible with PW values around 2 inches, and isolated severe
possible with decent surface and mid level forcing. Did indicate
slightly slower frontal push into area on Tuesday, and lowered
POPs on Wednesday.

Not a major cool air push behind front and temps will actually just
drop back to near normal levels with highs near 90 and lows 70-75.

Thursday through Saturday...There remains some models
differences, but will keep previous forecast as the frontal
boundary remains stalled to the south of the area and dissipate
late Thursday/Friday as high pressure builds into the area from
the New England area.

Temps still near normal both days with lows 70-75 and highs near 90.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Short term /Through 06z Monday /...
As of 1255 AM Sunday, will continue with VFR forecast for
overnight. With light to calm winds and saturated low levels,
tempting to add fog for early this morning, but none has been
observed the past several morning and will follow persistence for
now. Expect showers and thunderstorms to increase again Sunday
with heating and could see some brief sub VFR if these cross a
terminal.

Long Term /Sunday Night through Thursday/
As of 330 PM Saturday...Sub-VFR conditions are expected with
scattered to widespread rain and thunderstorms through mid week as
an upper tough and frontal boundary is over the area. May see low
level stratus and/or fog each morning. SW flow 5-10 knots then
shifting to NE after the frontal passage late Tuesday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Tonight and Sunday/...
As of 1255 AM Sunday, winds have become SSW/SW at all location and
are a bit gusty over the Pamlico Sound and central waters with
gusts as high as 21 knots at Diamond Buoy. Have continued to
reflect this trend in the forecast overnight. Seas persist at 2-4
feet. SW winds will cont Sunday at 10 to 20 kts. Seas will be
mainly 2 to 4 ft highest outer central and southern waters.

Long Term /Sunday Night through Thursday/...
As of 330 PM Saturday...SW winds 10-20 knots will continue into
late Monday night as the frontal boundary moves in from the NW and
reaches the southern waters by late Tuesday night. SW winds will
shift to east on Tuesday and then by Tuesday night, winds become
north-northeast. Winds will become 5-15 knots after the frontal
passage.

Seas will mainly be 2-4 ft during the period, with some 5 feet seas
over the outer portions of central and southern waters with the
stronger SW winds. Expect showers and thunderstorms through the
period.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RSB
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...RSB
LONG TERM...RSB/BM
AVIATION...RF/CTC/BM
MARINE...RF/CTC/BM



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