Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 140251
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
951 PM EST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH SUNDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL LIFT NORTHWEST OF THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT MAY APPROACH THE AREA BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 950 PM SATURDAY...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST AS
TEMPERATURES AREA-WIDE...EXCEPT FOR CAPE HATTERAS HAVE DROPPED
INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S. WINDS ARE GOING CALM INLAND BUT NORTHERLY
WINDS AT 5-15 MPH CONTINUE CLOSER TO THE COAST. AXIS OF ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER ILLINOIS WITH COLD DRY AIR DOMINATING
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. EXPECT MOST PLACES TO END UP BETWEEN
15-20 DEGREES BY MORNING WITH SOME LOWER 20S OUTER BANKS. WINDS
CHILL WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM SAT...WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRES
BECOMING CENTERED ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC INTO THE CAROLINAS. MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY IN ADVANCE
OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES BUT
EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST. AFTER A VERY COLD START TEMPS
WILL STRUGGLE TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY AIDED BY REDUCED
INSOLATION FROM THE CLOUDS. HIGHS GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S THOUGH MAY SEE SOME MID 30S SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...AN ACTIVE START TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH
SMALL CHANCE FOR WINTRY WEATHER EARLY MON MORNING...THEN A STRONG
FRONT CROSSES WITH THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDER MON
NIGHT/TUE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A DRY AND FAIRLY SEASONABLE REGIME
TO ROUND OUT THE PERIOD.

SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL DIG
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON MONDAY, WHILE SFC CYCLOGENESIS
OCCURS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL NOSE
SOUTHWEST INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES PRODUCING A WEAK COLD-
AIR DAMMING SCENARIO MONDAY MORNING LEADING TO P-TYPE CONCERNS.
MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THREAT FOR LIGHT WINTRY MIX
DEVELOPING FOR MAINLY THE COASTAL PLAIN COUNTIES EARLY MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE A SIGNIFICANT WARM NOSE LIFTS NORTH DUE TO
STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET. CONTINUED PREVIOUS
TREND OF 20-30 POP SNOW BY DAYBREAK, THEN SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN MIX FOLLOWED BY CHANCE RAIN AFTER ABOUT NOON. RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL DRY ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN THROUGH LATE SUN NIGHT AS WAA
ALOFT SPREADS THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS INTO E NC. THINK A
BULK OF WAA ENERGY WILL GO INTO SATURATING VERY DRY LOW
LEVELS...AND THEREFORE IT IS QUESTIONABLE IF ANY PRECIP AT ALL
WILL REACH THE GROUND THROUGH MON AM. CMC CONTINUES MOST
AGGRESIVE WITH PRECIP...THOUGH ECMWF REMAINS RATHER DRY...WITH
GFS/NAM IN BETWEEN. DUE TO THE LOWER THAN AVG CONFIDENCE...WILL
RETAIN THE 20-30 POPS ATTM. WHAT IS CERTAIN IS THAT `IF` ANY
PRECIP FALLS...THE IMPACTS WOULD BE HIGH DUE TO THE ANTECEDENT
VERY COLD GROUND TEMPS IN PLACE DUE TO THE ARCTIC SPELL...AS WELL
AS THE PRECIP FALLING AROUND THE TIME OF THE MONDAY MORNING
COMMUTE. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE LOW CONFIDENCE...HIGH IMPACT
POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. A NON-DIURNAL TEMP REGIME FOR MONDAY WITH
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW NEAR THE COAST ALLOWING FOR TEMP RISES
INTO THE 50S THROUGH THE DAY...WHILE THE COASTAL PLAIN REMAINS
LOCKED IN A STRONG FRONTAL INVERSION AND TEMPS STRUGGLING INTO
THE 40S...WITH HIGHS OCCURING LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HAVE CAPPED POPS AT 30 PERCENT AS THINKING THAT AFTER WAA MIXED
PRECIP EARLY IN THE DAY...AREA WILL BE UNDER RIDGING ALOFT WITH
BULK OF ORGANIZED LIFT/OMEGA WELL WEST OF THE FA IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE SHORT WAVE/COLD FRONT.

MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...13/12Z MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO
EXHIBIT SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH
ECM MOST ROBUST WITH SYNOPTIC ENERGY. THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
CONTINUES ON THE FASTER SIDE AND SHOULD BE OFF THE EASTERN NC
COAST BY 18Z TUESDAY, GREATLY DIMINISHING THE OPPORTUNITY FOR
WIDESPREAD DESTABILIZATION. DESPITE AMPLE SHEAR, THE OVERALL
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS VERY LOW EXCEPT FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS AND PERHAPS THE OBX. HOWEVER...DUE TO STRENGTHENING 60-70
KT LOW LEVEL JET MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING...CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
WILL HAVE THE THREAT FOR TRANSFERRING THESE HIGHER WINDS ALOFT TO
THE SFC RESULTING IN ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL EVEN IF NO
LIGHTNING PRESENT. QUICKER FRONTAL PASSAGE ALSO CUTS DOWN ON QPF
AMOUNTS...AND GENERALLY EXPECTING AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN
AVG...THOUGH RAIN WILL OCCUR OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME AND
CANNOT RULE OUT LOCALIZED FLOODING ESPECIALLY GIVEN ANTECEDENT WET
SOILS. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH READINGS RISING THROUGH THE
50S MON NIGHT...AND HIGHS TUE WELL INTO THE 60S MOST AREAS. WINDS
TURN ABRUPTLY WEST BEHIND FROPA LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON TUE
WITH SUNSHINE RETURNING.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF A BROAD EASTERN CONUS TROUGH LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, WITH A SURFACE REFLECTION
LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH VA WEDNESDAY MORNING. A SECONDARY,
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH EASTERN NC LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH VA. THE
UPPER TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE EAST COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY THOUGH HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES REBOUND LEADING TO NEAR CLIMO
TEMPS. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
THURSDAY AND NOSE SOUTH OVER THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE FRIDAY. OVERALL BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HIGHS ON WED AROUND 60...THUR IN THE
50S WITH WITH SOME 40S NORTHEAST ZONES. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE 30S. FRIDAY WILL SEE A WARMING TREND TO ABOVE CLIMO AS
HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES BUILD WITH ZONAL FLOW ENSUING AND MAX TEMPS
POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS THE LOW 60S. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL POSSIBLY
AFFECT THE AREA ON SAT AND MAY HAVE SOME MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
WITH IT...THUS HAVE ADDED A LOW CHANCE POP. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
WARM SO CONTINUED ABOVE CLIMO INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 650 PM SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
TAF CYCLE. NW/N BREEZES WILL CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST OF
THE TAF SITES...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AT
THE 4 TAF LOCATIONS. NORTH WINDS CONTINUE SUNDAY UNDER SUNNY
SKIES.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUN
NIGHT. SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THE EASTERN NC TAF SITES. PRECIP
COULD BEGIN AS LIGHT SNOW OR WINTRY MIX MONDAY MORNING AT KISO AND
KPGV BEFORE BECOMING ALL LIQUID AFTER AROUND NOON. THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIP ARE RATHER LOW ON MONDAY...WITH HEAVY RAIN AND SUB VFR
THREAT CONFINED TO MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, ALONG WITH
GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR TUESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 950 PM SATURDAY...GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE OUT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WITH GUSTS TO 27 KNOTS AT HATTERAS COAST GUARD STATION AND
31 KNOTS AT DIAMOND BUOY. EXPECT 15-25 KNOT WINDS TO PERSIST
OVERNIGHT FROM THE NW/N WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AS AXIS OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES EAST. WILL CONTINUE THE SCA FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT THE
WESTERN RIVERS TONIGHT THEN CONDITIONS BEGIN TO DROP BELOW SCA
CRITERIA SUNDAY.

SEAS ARE 4-7 FEET AND SHOULD CONTINUE IN THIS RANGE
OVERNIGHT...THEN WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE SUNDAY PER LATEST LOCAL
SWAN/NWPS MODEL.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM SAT...EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO DROP BELOW SCA
CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE,
NORTH OF THE REGION. REPRIEVE WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS GUSTY WINDS
AND BUILDING SEAS DEVELOP ON MONDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. AN AREA OF STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM
THE SW MONDAY, THEN TRACK INLAND OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN NC MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS LIKELY TO REACH GALE
FORCE AT LEAST IN GUSTS, ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
WATERS, AS SOUTH WINDS INCREASE TO 25-35 KT, PEAKING EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SEAS PEAK AT 10-13 FEET OR HIGHER BY TUESDAY
MORNING. WINDS VEER WESTERLY AND DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY TO 15-20
KNOTS TUESDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT...THOUGH
SEAS WILL LINGER ABOVE 6 FEET UNTIL WEDNESDAY. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS
AND WAVEWATCH IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD MIN TEMPS FOR 2/14

LOCATION  TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN    16/1955  (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS  15/2015  (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE     -2/1899  (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY  11/1968  (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON         6/1973  (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE   15/1968  (KNCA AWOS)

RECORD LOW MAX TEMPS FOR 2/14

LOCATION  TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN    39/1979  (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS  35/1958  (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE     28/1899  (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY  37/2015  (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON        34/1986  (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE   40/1958  (KNCA AWOS)


RECORD LOW TEMPS FOR 2/15

LOCATION  TEMP/YEAR
NEW BERN    20/2015  (KEWN ASOS)
CAPE HATTERAS  21/2015  (KHSE ASOS)
GREENVILLE      2/1899  (COOP - NOT KPGV AWOS)
MOREHEAD CITY  21/1969  (COOP - NOT KMRH ASOS)
KINSTON        13/1943  (COOP - NOT KISO AWOS)
JACKSONVILLE   20/2015  (KNCA AWOS)

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ130-131.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ156-158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...DAG/TL
AVIATION...CTC/TL
MARINE...CTC/SK/TL
CLIMATE...MHX


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