Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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435
FXUS62 KMHX 191500
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1000 AM EST Thu Jan 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will briefly build over the area today, then
another weak front will move through the region Friday. A
strong area of low pressure and frontal system will impact the
area Sunday through Monday. High pressure will then build into
the area from the south through mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/...
As of 10 AM Thu...No big changes with morning update. Temps on
their way to fcst highs of 55-60 most areas with current
readings in the mid/upr 40s under full sunshine and light NE
winds.

Previous Discussion...As of 7 AM Thursday, no major changes to
the current forecast. After a chilly start in the mid/upper 30s
over the inland CWA with low/mid 40s coast, highs today should
rise to the lower 50s over the northern Outer Banks with upper
50s/lower 60s over most other areas. Skies will be sunny except
for some transient cirrus, mainly northern areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 320 AM Thursday, cloudiness will increase from the west
tonight as surface low pressure moves into the Ohio Valley and
some mid-level shortwave energy approaches eastern NC from the
southwest. Forecast soundings show the lower levels not
moistening up until after about 09z and think any precipitation
should hold off until after 12z on Friday morning and will keep
PoPs out of the forecast for tonight. Lows tonight in the
low/mid 40s may occur early before leveling off or perhaps
rising a bit as the clouds and deeper moisture increase.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Friday Through Thursday

As of 230 AM Thursday... An area of low pressure now over Louisiana
will track northeast into the Ohio Valley by Friday.  The best upper
level lift and support will remain well north and west of our
forecast area.  The wetter GFS model from 24 hours ago has come more
into line with the lower QPF on the Euro and Canadian.  In fact the
latest EURO would keep the southern part of our area completely dry.
Will maintain our going forecast with rain chances in the 50% to 60%
range and cap QPF at just a few hundredths of an inch. Any showers
Friday will quickly move off the coast by evening.

After a brief period of dry weather Friday night into early
Saturday, we will begin a rather unsettled period Saturday afternoon
into early next week.  A upper level trof over the desert southwest
Saturday will progress into a cut off low that will move through the
Deep South Sunday into Monday.  Ahead of this low a deep feed of
moisture out of the Gulf of Mexico will produce two rounds of rain
for us first Saturday afternoon/Saturday evening, then again Sunday.
Finally the cut off low mentioned above moves through Sunday night
into Monday with one final round of steadier rain before we taper
off to showers through early Tuesday as the low moves east. GEFS
PWATS approach 2 standard deviations above normal as early as
Saturday afternoon and continue near that number through Sunday
evening.  Other signals that point to periods of heavy rain include
a strong low level jet, tall skinny cape, and warm cloud depths
above 10,000 feet.  Luckily it appears the heaviest periods of rain
will come in waves, with drying in the mid levels in between which
will help to give us lulls in activity.  We continue to mention
thunder through the period with lifted indices still negative and a
few hundred j/kg of CAPE.  We have a dynamic wind profile with winds
veering with height, so the amount of instability will have to be
watched with regards to the potential for stronger storms.

An early shower is possible Tuesday otherwise high pressure controls
our weather again providing us with a dry stretch of weather through
Thursday.  Our next shot at rain holds off until the end of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term /through 12z Fri/...
As of 7 AM Thursday, VFR conditions should prevail today until
after midnight tonight with only occasional high thin cirrus
clouds and relatively light winds. Some patchy dense fog should
burn off by 13Z at KPGV/KOAJ. As moisture increases ahead of
next system, expect clouds to thicken after midnight with some
MVFR ceilings possible after 09Z Friday morning. Precipitation
should hold off until after 12Z Friday however.

Long Term /Friday through Monday/...
As of 250 AM Thursday...mainly VFR through early Saturday.  Some
showers possible Friday all terminals with brief MVFR restrictions
possible.  The main aviation concern would be from Saturday
afternoon through early Monday with at least widespread MVFR
restrictions likely in rain, with local IFR possible. In addition
strong winds off the surface with a quick change in wind direction
may produce LLWS or at the very least, bumpy flying conditions
during the period.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Tonight/...
As of 7 AM Thursday, winds continue north at 5-15 knots but wind
gusts over 20 knots at Diamond Buoy, where seas are at 5.6 feet.
Seas generally 4-5 feet elsewhere. As axis of surface high
pressure settles over the coast tonight, winds become light at
generally 10 knots or less from the NE or E. Per latest local
SWAN/NWPS model, seas will be in the 2-3 feet range tonight.

Long Term /Friday through Monday/...
As of 255 AM Thursday...Southeast winds Friday veer into the
northwest Saturday.  Waves generally 2 to 5 feet through the period.
A strong area of low pressure will approach the waters by late
Sunday night.  Southwest to south winds will increase to above 20
knots by Sunday and continue through Monday.  Waves of 10 feet or
more are possible.  Small craft advisories will likely be needed
starting Sunday afternoon and lasting through Monday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC/TL
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...CTC/EH
MARINE...CTC/EH



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