Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KMHX 300721
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
321 AM EDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
ON MONDAY AND GRADUALLY PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTH OF THE AREA FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 2 AM SATURDAY...WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN CONTINUES TO NOSE WEST-SOUTHWEST INTO
EASTERN NC EARLY THIS MORNING WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REMAINS
CENTERED ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTLINE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THIS MORNING. SOME METARS HAVE BEGUN TO DECOUPLE AS SUGGEST BY
FORECAST SOUNDINGS THAT INDICATE A WEAK SURFACE-BASED INVERSION
DEVELOPING MAINLY ACROSS INLAND/COASTAL PLAINS COUNTIES. HAVE
ADDED PATCHY FOG AT 5SM FROM 08-11Z THIS MORNING BUT EXPECT
COVERAGE TO BE MINIMAL. SOUTHWESTERN MHX CWA ZONES HAVE RADIATED
VERY WELL ALREADY EARLY THIS MORNING WITH CURRENT READINGS 63-65
F. MIN TEMPS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 60S INLAND TO LOW 70S
ALONG THE COAST/OBX.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN SYNOPTIC SETUP FOR TODAY WITH LARGE SCALE
FEATURES REMAINING IN PLACE. THIS SCENARIO SUGGESTS A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST WILL LIKELY YIELD THE BEST RESULTS, SO WILL CONTINUE A
LOW SLIGHT CHANCE POP INLAND THIS AFTERNOON WHERE VERY ISOLATED
SHOWERS HAVE INITIATED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, DISSIPATING WITH
LOSS OF HEATING AROUND SUNSET. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS EXPECTED
TODAY WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATING PWATS STRUGGLING TO BUILD
NEAR 1.40 INCHES, SLIGHTLY LESS THAN YESTERDAY. INSTABILITY
REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR WEAK/ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTORMS THOUGH THE
INLAND MOVING SEA-BREEZE IS PERHAPS THE ONLY REAL TRIGGER FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS. TODAY MAY IN FACT REMAIN DRY. MAX TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER
80S INLAND TO UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 205 AM SATURDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY
FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT ALLOWING SURFACE WINDS TO
SHIFT MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY WHICH WILL HELP TO INCREASE LOW
LEVEL SHOWERS. THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE OVERHEAD, HOWEVER,
WHICH SHOULD YIELD ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO INHIBIT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE GULF STREAM. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT BUT KEEP DRY ELSEWHERE.
MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPS AGAIN WITH LOWS SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING, LOW
60S INLAND TO UPPER 60S/LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE MONDAY WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES. THERE WILL BE ONLY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY, THEN ON MONDAY DEEPER MOISTURE SHOULD
LEAD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INLAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.

THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE TUESDAY AS AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL
TROUGH FINALLY BREAKS DOWN THE EASTERN US UPPER RIDGE. ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH A POSSIBILITY FOR A FRONTAL WAVE TO FORM ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE FRONT
SHOULD MOVE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY AND DISSIPATE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH AND PRODUCES AN NORTHEASTERLY
FLOW OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AND SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION
FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. LATE IN THE PERIOD MODEL DEFERENCE`S LEAD TO
A BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE LEVEL AS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE MID
LEVEL LOW CUTS OFF INTO AN UPPER LOW. THE GFS IS MUCH SLOWER TO
MOVE THE UPPER AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT
WHILE THE ECMWF/CMC MODELS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND WOULD INDICATE
LESS PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. THE MODELS ALSO DIFFER ON HOW WELL
DEFINED THE SURFACE SYSTEM WILL BE WITH THE GFS THE MOST
ORGANIZED.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 2 AM SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. BRIEF/SHALLOW FOG AT MVFR LEVELS MAY
BE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO SUNRISE THIS MORNING. DECOUPLED WINDS AND
MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE SURFACE-BASED INVERSION MAY HELP WITH
SHALLOW/PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT BUT SHOULD MIX OUT QUICKLY AFTER
INSOLATION INITIATES AFTER SUNRISE. LIGHT SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS EXPECTED TODAY WITH ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH MON MORNING WITH SFC RIDGE EXTENDING OVER AREA FROM THE E-NE.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH ON MON AND MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH AREA
TUE-WED RESULTING IN SOME PERIODS OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS AND TSTMS. BEST COVERAGE EXPECTED TUE AFTN INTO TUE NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 215 AM SATURDAY...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 5-10 KNOTS WITH MEDIUM PERIOD SEAS 2-4 FT
ACROSS THE EASTERN NC WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO EXTEND
WSW OVER THE EASTERN NC WATERS THIS MORNING AND WILL PERSIST TODAY
BEFORE SHIFTING FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
BECOME SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN
10 KNOTS OR LESS. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN GOOD AGREEMENT
INDICATING SEAS MOSTLY 2-3 FT WITH SOME 4-5 FT SEAS ALONG THE
OUTER FRINGES OF THE CENTRAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO SWELLS
RADIATING WEST AWAY FROM WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WELL EAST OF
THE REGION.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 320 AM SATURDAY...SOUTHERLY FLOW 15 KT OR LESS IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR THROUGH TUESDAY AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. THE
GFS IS FASTER IN PUSHING THIS FRONT THROUGH THE NC WATERS AND
PREFERRED THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION SO WILL BRING THE FRONT
THROUGH THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE
POST FRONTAL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WHICH INCREASES TO 15 TO 20 KT.
AGAIN WILL SIDE WITH THE ECMWF MODEL WHICH HAS WEAKER FLOW AROUND
15 KT. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD IN
MIXTURE OF EASTERLY SWELL AND SOUTHERLY WIND WAVE THROUGH TUESDAY.
NORTHEASTERLY WIND WAVES WILL DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DAG
NEAR TERM...DAG
SHORT TERM...DAG
LONG TERM...JME/JBM
AVIATION...JME/DAG
MARINE...JME/DAG



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.