Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 281455
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
955 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH A WEAK TROUGH EDGING UP ALONG THE COAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CROSS THE REGION MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL STALL TO THE
SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT THEN LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TUESDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RAISED AFTERNOON MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES PER LATEST MOS GUIDANCE.
STILL QUITE COLD FOR LATE FEBRUARY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE
UPPER 30S/NEAR 40 ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TO LOW/MID 40S SOUTH.
AFTERNOON SUNSHINE WILL FADE BEHIND INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD
DOWNSTREAM SHORT WAVE. BRISK NE WINDS WILL BE GUSTY ESPECIALLY AT
THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
AS OF 222 AM SAT...WEAK SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THIS SETUP WILL HELP INCREASE CLOUDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODELS NOT AGREEING ON ANY PRECIP TIMING...BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS NOT SATURATING UNTIL AFTER THE FORECAST PERIOD.
IF MOISTURE MOVES IN FASTER...MAY SEE SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN
BEFORE THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH 8H TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
FREEZING BUT SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST SUNDAY WITH
WAA OVER THE REGION WITH VEERING LOW LVL WINDS. MDLS A BIT WETTER
ESPCLY GFS WITH MORE PRONOUNCED CSTL TRF. ADDED SLIGHT CHC RAIN
IN THE MORN...CANT RULE OUT SOME SPOTTY FREEZING DRIZZLE INLAND
AT DAYBREAK BUT FOR NOW WILL NOT START PRECIP TIL LATER IN MORN
WHEN ALL AREAS ABOVE FREEZING. TEMPS WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE
REGION MON. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY MON AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL CONT TO KEEP POPS IN CHC RANGE
AS MOISTURE IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD S
GRAD ENDING RAIN FROM N TO S LATER MON. WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS
SUNDAY NIGHT UPR 30S TO MID 40S AND HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 50S. THE
FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH MON NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR CONT TO
SPREAD SOUTH OVER EASTERN NC AND REMOVED ALL PRECIP. LOWS IN THE
LOWER 30S NW TO LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST. THE FRONT WILL LIFT
BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS
AS TEMPS CONTINUE IN THE 50S.

EASTERN NC WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY WITH SW WINDS...BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE OVER REGION SO MAINTAINED
LOWERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND TEMPS INTO LOWER 70S INLAND. NEAR
SHORE WATER TEMPS ARE COLD AND THIS WILL KEEP BEACHES MUCH COOLER
WITH POSS THREAT OF SEA FOG. STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WED
NIGHT AND CROSS THURSDAY. GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN A BIT REMAINS A BIT
FASTER THAN ECMWF AND CONT PREV FCST OF SLOWER FROPA. SYSTEM LOOKS
WET AND INCREASED POPS TO GOOD CHC THU AND LATER SHIFTS MAY BE
ABLE TO INCREASE FURTHER. VERY MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT THRU THU
MORN THEN STRONG CAA DEVELOPS LATER WITH TEMPS DROPPING. GFS
SHOWS LOW LVLS COOLING ENOUGH FOR POSS PTYPE ISSUES BUT FOR NOW
WILL KEEP AS ALL RAIN PER ECMWF. RAIN WILL END THU NIGHT WITH
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST OVER THE REGION FROM THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA INTO FRI. THICKNESSES FALL QUICKLY BEHIND
THE FRONT FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE MID 40S NORTH TO
LOW 50S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 621 AM SAT...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BULDING INTO THE
NORTH AND WEST BRINGING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO AREA TAFS. GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN UP DURING THE DAY BRINGING SOME STRONGER WINDS TO
SOUTHERN TAFS FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE GRADIENT LOOSENS AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS NORTH OF AREA. WILL SEE CLOUDS LOWER AND
THICKEN TONIGHT AS COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST...BUT
WILL REMAIN IN VFR RANGE.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY WITH
VEERING OW LVL WINDS. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW DECENT MOISTURE IN LOW
LVLS AND LOOKS LIKE COULD HAVE SUB VFR CIGS...POSS IN IFR RANGE.
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS MONDAY WITH SCT
PRECIP AND LIKELY PERIODS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. FRONT WILL STALL
TO SOUTH MON NIGHT WITH MAINLY VFR AS DRIER AIR SPREAD S. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLY
SOME LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA.
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY AS SURFACE FLOW
SHIFTS SOUTHWEST AND MAY BECOME GUSTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
JUST WIDELY SCT SHRA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 623 AM SAT...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS RUNNING 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH SEAS 6 TO 8 FEET. HIGH
PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN TO THE WEST WITH COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING
TODAY WILL HELP MAINTAIN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TODAY AND TONIGHT.
TIGHTENING GRADIENT AS TROUGH DEVELOPS WILL HELP BRING WIND SPEEDS
IN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY RANGE TODAY INTO TONIGHT OVER MUCH OF
THE WATERS. WILL EXTEND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INTO TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
INCREASE TO 6 TO 8 FEET.

AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER...WINDS WILL
DIMINISH IN THE WATERS THROUGHT THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH RELAXING
PRESSURE GRADIENT. SEAS WILL DROP TO 4 TO 5 FEET BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST LATE SUNDAY. AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND SLIDES EAST SUNDAY, WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE ESE WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE WATERS MON. SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND
IT MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE IN THE 3-5 FOOT RANGE SUN NIGHT AND
MON...POSS REACHING 6 FT OUTER CNTRL WTRS. MODERATE NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS LATER MON AND MON NIGHT WITH SEAS
CONTINUING 3-5 FT THOUGH AGAIN A FEW 6 FT SEAS FOR THE FAR OUTER
FRINGES OF THE CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS FROM OREGON INLET SOUTH TO
OCRACOKE INLET. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS LATE
TUESDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING SSE AND SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT. WINDS
CONTINUE TO VEER SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE 15-25 KT WITH SEAS
BUILDING 5-8 FT DUE TO A TIGHTENING SOUTHWESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE WATERS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...CCG
NEAR TERM...BTC
SHORT TERM...CCG
LONG TERM...RF/DAG
AVIATION...CCG/RF
MARINE...CCG/RF



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