Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 201518
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1018 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN A BIT MORE
PREVALENT THAN EARLIER THINKING TO OUR NORTH AND WEST...AND HAVE
EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER SOUTHWARD TO COVER MORE OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ALSO ADDED MENTION OF SPRINKLES TO THE FAR
SOUTHWEST NOT COVERED BY A 20 POP. OTHER ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO
TEMPS AND OTHER GRIDS BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF`S.

AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...THERE IS RADIATION FOG OUT THERE THIS
MORNING THAT WE`RE HAVING TO DEAL WITH. EXPECT VSBY TO GO
UNRESTRICTED BY 13Z AT THE LATEST. THEN LOOK FOR A DRY FRONTAL
PASSAGE LATER TODAY WITH MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND VERY
LITTLE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. WILL LEAVE THE TAF`S VFR THRU THE
PERIOD EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF OVERNIGHT FOG AT CKV.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...

NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS.  I
MEAN...NONE.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE WORKWEEK BEFORE WARMING BACK INTO THE LOW 70S NEXT
WEEKEND...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...WE SHOULD REMAIN HIGH AND DRY.

IF THERE IS ANYTHING WORTH A MENTION IN THIS MORNING`S FORECAST
PACKAGE IT`S THIS REALLY IMPOTENT SHORTWAVE THAT IS DIVING SOUTHWARD
OUT OF CENTRAL CANADA.  CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES...
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT FEATURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT IS A MID-LEVEL CLOUD
DECK AND SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN STRETCHING SWWD FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
INTO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  MOISTURE IS EXTREMELY LIMITED...
BUT WE MAY ALSO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THE ONLY CHANGE I`LL MAKE TO
THE WHOLE POP FORECAST THIS MORNING IS TO ADD IN A SMALL POP FOR
TONIGHT. A SECONDARY TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE STATE OVERNIGHT AND I WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME WET PAVEMENT EARLY TUESDAY MORNING IN A FEW SPOTS AROUND
MIDDLE TN. AGAIN...NOT SIGNIFICANT...BUT WORTH A MENTION.

THIS SECONDARY TROUGH TONIGHT WILL DELIVER SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRIER
AIR FROM CANADA FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK BEFORE WE START TO SLOWLY
REBOUND BACK TOWARDS NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND.

THE REBOUND WILL BE DUE IN PART TO AN EXTENDED RANGE SYSTEM FOR THE
START OF NEXT WEEK.  BOTH THE GFS AND THE EURO ARE SHOWING THIS
SYSTEM AND WHILE NOT TOO POTENT...IT SHOULD HELP GET DEW POINTS
ELEVATED ALONG WITH THE AFTERNOON HIGHS.

UNGER

AVIATION...06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH AND THIS COULD
LEAD TO PERIODS OF MVFR FOG/HAZE THROUGH 12-13Z...LARGELY CSV.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW
10 MPH.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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