Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 031143
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
543 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...ADDED AVIATION SECTION FOR 12Z TAF`S.

&&

.AVIATION...BNA/CKV/CSV...LOOK FOR IFR CIGS TO SETTLE IN ACROSS
THE MID STATE WELL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STRONG COLD FRONT.
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE, WITH SHOWERS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOME THUNDER IS
POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE
STORMS, WILL LEAVE THE PRECIP TYPE AS SHRA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

HYDROLOGY...A COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BRING A SOAKING
RAIN TO MIDDLE TENNESSEE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH AMOUNTS OF
BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH
OF THE MID STATE FROM 6 PM TODAY THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY. MID STATE
SOILS REMAIN SATURATED DUE TO A COMBINATION OF RECENT RAINS AND
THE SLOW MELT OF ICE AND SNOW FROM PREVIOUS WINTER STORMS. THIS IS
ESPECIALLY SIGNIFICANT OVER NORTHERN COUNTIES...WHERE SNOW AND ICE
ACCUMULATIONS WERE GREATEST. THUS ANY RAINS THAT FALL...PRIOR TO
THE CHANGE OVER TO WINTRY PRECIPITATION TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WILL
QUICKLY LEAD TO PONDING IN LOW LYING AREAS. LOCALIZED FLOOD
PROBLEMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP.

19

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015/

SHORT TERM...SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS HAVE BROUGHT MILD TEMPERATURES
INTO THE MID STATE OVERNIGHT, WITH 3 AM READINGS MAINLY BETWEEN
40 AND 45 DEGREES. STILL LOOKS LIKE A BREEZY AND MILD DAY, WITH
HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MIDDLE 60S! WOW! WHEN WAS THE
LAST TIME WE SAW TEMPERATURES LIKE THAT? SEEMS LIKE FOREVER.

MAY SEE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS TODAY, BUT OVERALL EXPECT MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING,
BUT BECOME MORE LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON AS ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST.

STILL LOOK FOR THE COLD FRONT TO BE IN OUR EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT, PASSING SOUTH OF NASHVILLE AROUND 6
AM CST ON WEDNESDAY, AND THEN FINALLY CLEARING THE MID STATE BY
TOMORROW EVENING. EXPECT MUCH COLDER AIR TO SPREAD IN BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT, BRINGING, FIRST, A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING
RAIN, THEN EVENTUALLY CHANGING OVER TO MAINLY A SNOW AND SLEET
MIX. EXPECT QUITE A BIT OF SLEET TO OCCUR BEFORE THE SWITCH-OVER TO
SNOW, AND THIS IS STRONGLY CONSIDERED WHEN ESTIMATING SNOW AMOUNTS
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE
AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES SOUTH, TO BETWEEN
4 AND 5 INCHES NORTH. SINCE SNOW AND SLEET AMOUNTS ARE STILL
QUESTIONABLE, ESPECIALLY AS IT RELATES TO THE AMOUNT OF SLEET THAT
WILL BE PART OF THE MIX, WILL LEAVE THE WINTER STORM WATCH IN
PLACE AND GIVE THE DAY SHIFT A CHANCE TO DETERMINE WHAT AREAS
MIGHT NEED A WINTER STORM WARNING OR ADVISORY. RIGHT NOW, EXPECT
ICE TO MAINLY BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH, ALTHOUGH IT COULD END
UP BEING A BIT MORE DOWN SOUTH, WHERE SNOW SOUNDINGS ARE SLOWEST
TO MATERIALIZE.

BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHWEST AND ALONG THE HIGHLAND RIM, WITH OTHER AREAS STANDING
THE BEST CHANCE WEDNESDAY NIGHT, ESPECIALLY AROUND MIDNIGHT AND
AFTER.

SNOW TAPERS OFF FROM THE WEST THURSDAY MORNING, WITH HIGHS ON
THURSDAY ONLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. WIND CHILLS
BY SUNRISE THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER MANY AREAS.

VERY COLD WEATHER CONTINUES INTO FRIDAY, WITH LOWS FRIDAY MORNING
STILL EXPECTED TO BE PREDOMINANTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
TEMPERATURES FINALLY START TO MODERATE BY SATURDAY, AS HIGHS
FINALLY PUSH BACK INTO THE 40S.
19

LONG TERM....LONG TERM...GFS DEVELOPS A SHORTWAVE TO OUR SOUTHWEST
THAT WILL HELP BRING MOISTURE ONSHORE ALONG THE GULF COAST THIS
WEEKEND, BUT IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH
ONLY MINIMAL EFFECTS HERE IN MIDDLE TENNESSEE MAINLY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE, LOOK FOR A RATHER BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN
AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK AS TEMPERATURES TREND TOWARD SEASONAL
VALUES.
08

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR
TNZ005>011-023>034-056>060-062>066.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095.

&&

$$

ROSE



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