Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 240455
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1155 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

.UPDATE...
FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Current forecast is in great shape and not many changes were made.
Southeast regional radar shows lines of showers and thunderstorms
all around Middle Tennessee. Expect this to fill in as the night
goes on. Have pops increasing through the night...especially after
06Z. Pops become categorical after 12Z tomorrow.

The upper level low drops out of the Ohio Valley and into Western
Tennessee by 03Z Thursday and transverses across Tennessee through
12Z Thursday. The pops taper off west to east after 06Z Thursday.
High pressure builds in on Friday and conditions dry out.

Still looks like there could be some instability and cold
temperatures aloft on Wednesday. Still not very impressive but
there could be some small hail.

Zonal flow for the holiday weekend. Models are becoming better
aligned with the best chance of rain being Saturday night and
Sunday.

Temperatures still look very pleasant for this time of year. The
warmest days will be Friday...Saturday...and Sunday. Have gone a
degree or so above MEX guidance each of those day.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

With SWLY flow aloft, sfc front pushing thru mid state by
24/12Z, and developing upper level troughing influences moving
into mid state region as upper low will be eventually move across
SW portions by 25/06Z, unsettled wx pattern continues to pose
uncertainties in actual terminal forecast impacts. LIFR vsbys/IFR
ceilings may last at CSV thru 24/11Z. Moisture advection from SW
associated with another shortwave passage and possible post sfc
frontal moisture, will bring increasing chances of light shwrs to
mid state region thru at least 24/17Z. VFR vsbys/ceilings will
become predominate MVFR vsbys/ceilings, IFR vsbys CSV. As this
slug of moisture moves EWD after 24/17Z, some improvement to VFR,
MVFR CSV, ceilings anticipated/with vsbys around VFR thresholds.
Per proximity to upper level low approaching, tstms possible CKV
24/20Z-25/02Z. Some lingering shwrs should persist at terminals
thru 25/06Z as best moisture begins to shift eastward.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......21
AVIATION........31


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