Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 200114 AAC
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
814 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
CURRENT TEMP TRENDS CONTINUE TO BE IN LINE WITH FORECASTED LOW
VALUES. MAY BE MAKING SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS HERE OR THERE FOR
HRLY GRID VALUES OF TEMPS/DEWPOINTS/WINDS AS THE EVENING HRS
PROGRESS AND WILL UPDATE THE AFM/PFM PRODUCTS ACCORDINGLY.
OTHERWISE...AS ILLUSTRATED BY 00Z SAT KOHX SOUNDING PROFILE AND
SUPPORTED BY REGIONAL SATELLITE...RADAR...SFC OBS...AND CONSENSUS
OF SHORT RANGE MODEL TRENDS...AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE AND
ASSOCIATED REASONING REMAINS ON TRACK.
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 632 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

AVIATION...
00Z TAFS...MAINLY VFR THIS PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EAST
COAST WILL KEEP NICE WX OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
FOR TONIGHT...SKC AND LIGHT SSE WINDS ARE EXPECTED...WITH SOME
MVFR BR AT CSV AROUND DAYBREAK. SATURDAY WILL BRING S WINDS 5-8KT
AND FEW-SCT CUMULUS CLOUDS.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 319 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

SHORT TERM...IT WAS MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE MID STATE THIS
AFTERNOON, AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD PRODUCED A WARM SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.

LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER DRY AND WARM DAY ON TAP FOR SATURDAY, BEFORE A
COLD FRONT DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRINGS AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
WARM PRETTY NICELY AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER ABOUT THE SOUTHEASTERN
ONE HALF OF OUR AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TRENDED
POPS ON SUNDAY LOWER IN THE NORTHWEST, WHERE FRONT SHOULD SWEEP
THROUGH BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z, AND HIGHER OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
AREAS WHERE THEY WILL GET THE ADVANTAGE OF PRE-FRONTAL WARMING AS A
THUNDERSTORM TRIGGER.

AFTER OUR BRIEF WEEKEND WARM-UP AND CHANCE FOR RAIN ON SUNDAY,
THINGS TREND BACK TOWARD MORE AUTUMN-LIKE DRY AND COOLISH CONDITIONS.
LOWS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY DIP BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
50S.

LONG TERM...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN ACROSS THE AREA MID-TO-
LATE NEXT WEEK, WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK INTO THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 80S. MEANWHILE, EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN DRY.

19

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&
$$
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