Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 222004
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
304 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Quiet so far today precip wise as strong southerly winds bring
some additional moisture to the area before better precip chances
move in later. Models are lining up a bit better with smaller
discrepancies compared to previous runs, and still looks like this
evening through early Monday afternoon will be when the best
chances for rain will impact the area, and when the heaviest
amounts will fall. Current radar does have some higher echoes
developing to the southwest of the area, and the HRRR is
indicating this may be out ahead of the main line for later this
evening. Amounts have lowered slightly, but still looking at 1-2
inches of rain across the area with some locally higher amounts
possible. Models also continue the trend of decreasing instability
this afternoon through the day Monday, so kept the mention of
thunder in for this afternoon and evening with mainly showers
thereafter.

Still have lingering chances for precip overnight into Tuesday
morning as some backside showers may be ongoing. The larger
Midwest trough will dig southward towards the mid state on
Tuesday, and will help reinforce CAA over the area. This will
bring 850 mb temps around 0C over the region, and low temps
Wednesday morning may be near freezing for low lying areas. Areas
of frost seem more likely in those areas compared to previous
runs, however there is still a bit of difference between model
solutions in regards to temperature ranges. Thursday morning may
also have lows in the mid to upper 30s east of I-65, so looking
for chances for frost on that morning as well. Brief upper ridging
moves in later on Thursday and early Friday so temps will recover
a bit into the upper 60s with lows in the 40s.

Warmer air looks to be short lived as another Plains/Midwest
trough will bring a stronger cold front to the area. Long term
models still are a bit off in regards to timing of precip and
colder air, however agree that Sunday will be cooler with highs in
the mid 50s. The GFS has a much colder solution compared to the
GFS, so went with consensus bringing rain chances late Friday
through early Sunday with 50s highs and 30s lows for next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

BNA/MQY/CKV/CSV...Per above mentioned timing changes, terminals
now reflecting this trend also. Will not mention the potential
of VCSH at CKV until 22/22Z. This trend also reflected in when
bringing in the development of predominate FM group rainfall
not beginning at CKV until 23/02Z. Believe most locations will
receive rainfall by 23/06Z. Winds should generally be high
enough to keep fog production at the minimum. Sfc pressure
gradient should be tight enough to continue to support gusts
to 30-35 kts thru 23/00Z. Pcpn chances should possibly end
by 23/16Z CKV.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      62  65  48  61  40 / 100  80  10  10  10
Clarksville    57  62  46  59  38 /  90  50  10  10  10
Crossville     60  64  43  55  34 /  90  90  20  20  10
Columbia       59  64  45  61  36 /  90  50  10  10  10
Lawrenceburg   57  64  43  61  34 /  90  40   0  10  10
Waverly        56  64  45  60  36 /  90  30   0   0  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......Barnwell
AVIATION........31


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