Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 030225
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
925 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.UPDATE...ALSO TAKING OUT THE EVENING POP`S WE HAD FOR OUR EASTERN
COUNTIES GIVEN THAT THE RADAR SCOPE HAS BEEN PPINE ACROSS THE
MID STATE FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE HRRR IS NOT SHOWING ANY
DEVELOPMENT LATER ON TONIGHT, SO WE`LL LEAVE THE REST OF TONIGHT
DRY.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 922 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015/

UPDATE...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBS ARE SHOWING CLOUDS
ERODING ACROSS SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE, SO AM UPDATING THE
GRIDS AND THE PUBLIC FORECAST TO REFLECT THIS CHANGE. WE`LL HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR DENSE FOG IN AREAS THAT SCATTER OUT,
ALTHOUGH PATCHY FOG IS ALREADY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE ENTIRE CWA
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK AT THIS
POINT, SO WILL ISSUE A FORECAST UPDATE TO ADDRESS THE CHANGE IN
SKY CONDITION ONLY.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 645 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015/

UPDATE...FOR 00Z AVIATION.

AVIATION...00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST TO OUR
EAST HAS KEPT THE CLOUDS INTACT ALL DAY...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THEY
ARE FINALLY TRYING TO DISSIPATE. THIS WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS...BUT
THE TREND IN THE SATELLITE DATA SHOWS SHRINKING COVERAGE OVER THE
LAST FEW HOURS. EITHER WAY...FOG MAY BECOME AN ISSUE AT ALL 3 MID-
STATE TERMINALS AS WINDS GO CALM OVERNIGHT. WILL ONLY GO IFR AT
KBNA...BUT KCKV/KCSV SHOULD SEE 1/2SM BY 09-10Z. EXPECTATIONS ARE
FOR THIS FOG TO CLEAR BY 13-14Z FOR ALL...AND REMAIN VFR FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF CYCLE.

WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTH DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS AND
CALM OVERNIGHT.

UNGER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 232 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...PERSISTENT CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S
FOR MOST OF MID TN TODAY. PARTS OF THE PLATEAU HAD SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS...AND A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS.

FOR TONIGHT...IT LOOKS LIKE SOME BREAKS MAY DEVELOP IN THE CLOUD
COVER...BUT SUBSTANTIAL CLEARING WILL NOT LAST. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO REDEVELOPMENT OF LOW CLOUDS AND SOME AREAS
OF FOG LATE TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY FOR
THE PLATEAU THROUGH THE EVENING.

THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...NO MAJOR FRONTS OR OTHER
SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPACT MID TN. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE THAT HAS BEEN SPINNING AWAY FROM MID TN INTO EAST TN
TODAY...WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...AND THEN LIFT TO THE EAST COAST. AT THE SAME
TIME...A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE CENTER OF THE NATION. THIS
PATTERN WILL PUT MID TN UNDER A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

WEDNESDAY WILL BEGIN WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG...BUT
THE SUN SHOULD GRADUALLY BREAK THROUGH...AND PUSH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR MUCH OF THE MID STATE. WE
STILL CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
OUR AREA.

LOW RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AS
WELL...WITH TEMPS WARMING UP A LITTLE MORE. HIGHS WILL REACH
MOSTLY MID 80S ON THURSDAY.

FOR THE WEEKEND...THE RIDGE FROM THE PLAINS WILL BULGE TOWARD THE
OH/TN VALLEYS. AT THE SAME TIME...A COUPLE OF WAVES WILL SKIRT THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. FOR MID TN...THIS WILL MEAN WARM TEMPERATURES
WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS PATTERN COULD BRING AN
MCS OR 2 OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT IT IS TOO SOON TO KNOW...SO WE
WILL KEEP POPS IN THE 20-40 PERCENT RANGE. HIGHS WILL REACH WELL
INTO THE 80S THIS WEEKEND...AND IF STORMS AND CLOUDS ARE LIMITED
ENOUGH...SOME AREAS MAY TOUCH 90.

THE WARM AND SOMEWHAT UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK AS WELL.

13

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

99





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