Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 232033
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
333 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.DISCUSSION...
FORECAST REASONING WILL LEAN TOWARD A CONSENSUS MODEL SOLUTION
COMPROMISE FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED.

FORECAST QUANDARIES...STRONG TSTM POTENTIAL THU NIGHT...STRONG
TO SVR TSTMS MON INTO MON NIGHT...TEMPS.

EXPECTING RIDGING INFLUENCES SFC/ALOFT TO KEEP THE MID STATE DRY THRU
THU AFTERNOON...WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDINESS LATE THU AS SFC
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO MID AND LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY REGIONS AND
AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD SLY SFC
FLOW THRU THU AFTERNOON ALSO...WILL LEAN TOWARD MET MOS VALUES
TONIGHT AND THU ALSO. SFC FRONT/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH THRU
THE MID STATE THU NIGHT BRINGING WITH IT SHWRS AND TSTMS. ALONG WITH
GOOD INSTABILITY PARAMETERS AND MODEST CAPE VALUES...MODELS ALSO
SHOWING SOME MODEST LOW LEVEL JET DYNAMICS TOO...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HRS. EVEN THOUGH THE MID STATE
NOT PLACED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SVR TSTMS FOR THU NIGHT PER THE DAY
TWO SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE ESPECIALLY
WRN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE DURING THE EVENING HRS EXPERIENCE SOME
STRONG TSTMS. BRUNT OF SHWRS/TSTMS SHOULD PUSH INTO PLATEAU COUNTIES
LATE...WITH LOWS ACROSS THE MID STATE MID TO UPPER 50S E TO LOWER
50S LAND BETWEEN THE LAKES REGION...AS SFC FRONT/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SHOULD BE POSITIONED ALONG OR GENERALLY E OF THE PLATEAU BY SUNRISE
ON FRI. MAYBE SOME LINGERING SHWRS/TSTMS ACROSS THE PLATEAU THRU THE
MORNING HRS ON FRI...OTHERWISE SLOWLY BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
INFLUENCES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE MID STATE THRU THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED...BUT LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
OVERALL AIRMASS CHANGES WITH THE EXPECTED FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH HIGHS
CONTINUING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMAL
VALUES.

AS FOR SUN THRU THE MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...AN ACTIVE WX PATTERN
LOOKS TO BE IN STORE FOR THE MID STATE BY SUN NIGHT INTO AT LEAST
TUE...WITH THE MID STATE BEING IN A BROAD WARM SECTOR OF A
DEVELOPING STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM ON MON...WITH EXPECTED PASSAGE
ACROSS THE MID STATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE. SPC HAS ALREADY PLACED
A GOOD PORTION OF THE MID STATE E OF THE PLATEAU IN A DAY 6
OUTLOOK...AND MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE ALL THE NECESSARY
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INGREDIENTS...ALONG WITH A STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL JET...FOR POTENTIAL ORGANIZED STRONG TO SVR TSTM
DEVELOPMENT...AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME ISO STRONG TO
SVR TSTMS DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF THE MID STATE
BY MON AFTERNOON. LATEST GFS SOLUTION MORE IN LINE WITH
CURRENT/PREVIOUS VERSIONS OF THE EURO SOLUTION WHICH HAVE BEEN
DEVELOPING THIS SYSTEM WITH MORE CLARITY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL MODEL
RUNS. TIMING WILL BE THE OVERALL KEY HERE...AND CONTINUE TO EXPECT
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SVR TSTMS TO BE W AND SW OF
THE MID STATE MON INTO MON NIGHT...BUT STRONG TO SVR TSTMS COULD
DEVELOP TO OUR W AND MOVE INTO THE MID STATE DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HRS ALSO. ALONG WITH THIS...MODELS ALSO ADVERTISING A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINING ACROSS THE MID STATE THRU TUE INTO
AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF WED. WILL BE GOING CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST REASONING OVER THIS TIME PERIOD AS FURTHER AND FUTURE
MODEL RUN DETAILS AND CLARIFICATIONS NEEDED BEFORE COMPLETE CERTAINTY
INTO SPECIFICS OF EVENT CAN BE DETERMINED. BOTH MODELS ALSO ADVERTISING
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW REMAINING ACROSS THE MID STATE THRU TUE
INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF WED. HIGH TEMPS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD WILL CONTINUE ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMAL VALUES THRU AT LEAST WED.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      45  79  58  77 /   0  10  70  10
CLARKSVILLE    43  80  54  75 /   0  10  70  10
CROSSVILLE     41  73  56  72 /   0  05  70  20
COLUMBIA       46  80  57  78 /   0  10  70  10
LAWRENCEBURG   46  81  57  77 /   0  10  70  10
WAVERLY        45  80  53  76 /   0  10  70  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$
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