Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 242038
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
338 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...

Upper high is centered over nrn MS this afternoon. Westerly flow
aloft is much weaker than yesterday. We also see some more in the
way of lower level subsidence. Therefore...very little convective
activity is ongoing. This trend will continue into the overnight
hours as capes diminish.

On Thursday, only low precip chances will return. Pops will be kept
to 20 percent and confined to the afternoon period only. Pops will
increase a little more on Friday as a boundary settles southward
toward our area and some added moisture appears to undercut the
ridge.

For the near term temps, hot weather will continue as the upper high
remains anchored over the southeastern U.S.. Looks like lower to
perhaps mid 90s for locations west of the Plateau for the next 2
afternoons.

In the extended fcst...for this weekend...upper high will shift
slightly eastward and the previously mentioned boundary will lift
back to the north as a warm front. Then...we are still keeping an
eye out on the tropics for potential development in the Atlantic.
Latest Euro run now shows the tropical system taking more of an
eastern track with the system reaching the FL keys on Sunday and
then tracking north along the western FL peninsula. Other tracks
vary, however, all models do elude toward a reasonably strong sfc
high over the great lakes region. This then suggests the placement
of a sfc boundary to the south. Perhaps this boundary may pick up
the system and keep it further east. At any rate, I will continue to
keep our pops on the low side. A track further to the east would
mean a drier scenario for our neck of the woods.

For the ext temps...will keep conditions on the warm side. Lows lower
70s and highs lower 90s. A few degrees cooler along the Plateau.


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Scattered-broken cu around 3,000 feet will continue for the rest
of today under high pressure. A few diurnally-driven t-storms will
be possible, mainly around the CSV terminal. Have inserted a VCSH
in their TAF given the close proximity of current activity. Kept
BNA and CKV dry for now. Other than short-lived MVFR conditions
with any storms or light fog near CKV or CSV overnight, VFR
conditions will prevail generally under light southwest winds.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      73  94  74  94  73 /  10  20  10  20  20
Clarksville    72  93  73  92  71 /  10  20  10  30  20
Crossville     70  86  70  88  69 /  10  20  10  20  10
Columbia       73  94  73  93  72 /  10  20  10  30  20
Lawrenceburg   73  94  73  93  72 /  10  20  10  30  20
Waverly        72  93  73  92  72 /  10  20  10  40  20

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......21
AVIATION........AL



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