Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
FXUS64 KOHX 301201
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
701 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
1st phase of the upcoming storm system has yet to fill in across
western TN but solid coverage resides across MS and IL. Should see
some of the activity over MS reach our western most counties between
6am and 8am as the precipitation moves nne. As for the severe
potential, weakening is expected and we will probably only see
strong intensities, if that, for this 1st phase this morning. As
you move further east, the tstms will fall apart before reaching
Before I talk about the 2nd phase, we took a closer look at the
expected wind magnitudes for today and found that we are below
wind advisory criteria. Furthermore, ISC data does not indicate
support. Thus, we will cancel the wind advisory.
The 2nd phase of this system appears to be the greater threat.
Pre frontal forcing is quite apparent with the advancing surface
trough over western TN. But, as it moves east, over eastern
portions of the mid state, forcing appears to weaken a bit as the
sfc low to our north loses some of its n-s integrity and trends
toward more of a w- e elongation. That said, the more destructive
storms will be west of i-65, but severe weather is still
anticipated area wide.
It now appears that a delay in convective development may occur
until around the 2pm to 4pm window. At that time, isol/sct development
may occur across a large portion of the mid state but the
favorable forcing and instability axis will reside over western
middle TN in the middle to late afternoon hours. This will be the
favorable zone of severe weather. From there, the severe weather
threat will spread east reaching the i-65 corridor between 5 pm
and 8 pm, and then the Plateau between 8 pm to midnight. Straight
line wind damage, large hail, and isolated tornadic development
still remains possible.
Moving on, the upper trough axis will cross the mid state late
Thursday night, so shower chances will persist into Friday. A brief
break from the showers and storms will occur over the weekend. Then,
another potent storm system will impact our weather early next week.
Temperatures through the period will continue to run above normal
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.
Band of showers and storms expected to push across the mid-state
later today and well into the evening. These storms expected to
begin affecting CKV around 21z, BNA around 00z, CSV toward 03z.
Ahead of these storms, wind will gust around 25knts. Following
the storms later tonight...cigs at all sites expected to drop to
MVFR/IFR levels and remain there through 12z.