Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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000
FXUS61 KRNK 270008
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
708 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING MORE PRECIPITATION
TO THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM
OF SNOW WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND RAIN TO THE EAST. UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL THEN CONTINUE ALONG THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE
RIDGE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BRINGING
QUIET WEATHER TO THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK TO
THE FORECAST AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WEEKEND AND HEAD INTO THE NEW
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 650 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

ALL PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE CWA WITH SKIES AT LEAST
PARTIALLY CLEARING AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING ABOVE THE MELTING
SNOW COVER. CLOUD COVER STILL EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK IN PER
DISCUSSION BELOW AS CLIPPER APPROACHES.


PREVIOUS VALID DISCUSSION...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

AFTER A LULL IN THE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING...A FAST MOVING CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. THANKS TO THE DIGGING UPPER
TROF...MOST OF THE ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR CWA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SOME SYNOPTIC
PRECIPITATION TO SLIDE EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND UP INTO THE
PIEDMONT LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW IN ADDITION TO UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT WEST OF THE RIDGE. PTYPE WILL BE MOSTLY SNOW WEST OF
THE RIDGE WITH RAIN TO THE EAST. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN
RETAINED FOR THE NC MOUNTAINS INTO THE GRAYSON HIGHLANDS/MOUNTAIN
EMPIRE REGION OF VA AND WRN GREENBRIER IN WV WHERE UPSLOPE
ENHANCEMENT OF SYNOPTIC PRECIP LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD ADD UP TO
ADVSY CRITERIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE FAR WESTERN SLOPES AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THIS HIGH WILL BRING US QUIET WEATHER INTO THE WEEKEND
BEFORE IT SLIDES OFF TO OUR EAST AND SLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP A
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN. MAIN THRUST OF ANY LIFT AND MOISTURE
CAPABLE OF SQUEEZING OUT PRECIPITATION REMAINS OFF TO OUR WEST AHEAD
OF NEXT WEAK APPROACHING FRONT. THIS SHOULD KEEP US DRY INTO THE
LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER FLORIDA LIMITING
GULF AND ATLANTIC MOISTURE FROM ENTERING THE REGION SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. THIS RIDGE WILL ALSO ALLOW THE REGION TO WARM TO 10F ABOVE
NORMAL. MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT...A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL
TRY AND PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA. WITH A STRONG AND BROAD RIDGE ACROSS
THE SOUTH...EXPECTING LATER MODEL RUNS TO DELAY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
UNTIL SOMETIME TUESDAY. SINCE THE ECM/GFS HAS THIS FRONT ENTERING
THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WILL HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS FOR
RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. ALSO HAVE SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS TUESDAY FOR
A POSSIBLE FRONTAL PASSAGE OR FOR THE FRONT STALLING IN THE REGION.
EITHER WAY AND/OR EITHER DAY...TEMPERATURES AND THICKNESSES ARE WARM
TO KEEP ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING AS RAIN. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE OVER NEW ENGLAND FOLLOWING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND REMAIN
IN THE AREA TROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORKWEEK. EVEN THOUGH THIS
WEDGE IS STRONG (1035MB)...MODELS REMAINING WARM AND CLOSE TO
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 655 PM EST WEDNESDAY...

VARIABLE BUT GENERALLY POOR FLIGHT CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WITH
MAINLY MVFR CIGS AND SOME IFR FOG IN THE WEST. RESTRICTIONS WILL
LOWER OVERNIGHT AS A CLIPPER MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY AFTER 06Z THU FOR
BLF/LWB/BCB...MVFR AT ROA/LYH/DAN MORE TOWARDS SUNRISE. THIS
CLIPPER IS ALSO A FAST MOVER AND CONDITIONS LIKELY TO IMPROVE
DURING THURSDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE CLIPPER WILL
BECOME GUSTY...UP TO 30KTS ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE IN THE AFTERNOON.

ALSO A CONCERN BETWEEN SYSTEMS ARE AREAS OF FOG...POSSIBLY BECOMING
DENSE AS WARM AIR GLIDES OVER COLD WET GROUND.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS RANGED FROM ABOUT 0.50 TO 1.25
INCHES OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT WITH A FEW GAGES PICKING UP IN EXCESS
OF 1.50 INCHES MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NEW RIVER AND UPPER
ROANOKE AND DAN RIVER BASINS. THE LESSER AMOUNTS WERE GENERALLY
OBSERVED OVER THE WESTERN BASINS INCLUDING THE GREENBRIER AND
UPPER JAMES. RADAR PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES EXTREMELY CONTAMINATED
BY BRIGHT BAND EFFECTS. RUNOFF CAUSING SMALLER STREAMS TO SHOW
SOME NICE RISES BUT ALL WELL WITHIN BANKS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR VAZ007-009-015.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR NCZ001-018.
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST
     THURSDAY FOR WVZ508.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS/PC
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...PC/RCS
HYDROLOGY...PC
EQUIPMENT...AMS



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