Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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FXUS61 KRNK 031943
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
343 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN COOL AND UNSETTLED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK...WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AND
BRINGING US A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...

EARLY CLOUDS GAVE WAY TO SOME SUN WHICH ALLOWED DIURNAL INSTABILITY TO
SET UP AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE
STORMS GOT STARTED WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND HAVE NOW MOVED TO THE
EAST WHERE THERE IS BETTER INSTABILITY. WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT
AND PWATS OVER ONE INCH ACROSS THE PIEDMONT EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN AND SOME HAIL WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT SOUTHSIDE/PIEDMONT...
WITH THE BEST SUPPORT FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE CONVECTION RESIDING
FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA. EXPECT THE BULK
OF ACTIVITY TO BE EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST EARLY THIS EVENING
BUT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE FLOATING AROUND FURTHER
WEST AS WELL.

THE ACTIVITY WILL DWINDLE OVERNIGHT AS THE LINGERING COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SINKS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH BUT AS A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES LATE
TONIGHT A RESURGENCE OF SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FAR WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE. WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED WITH MORE SHORT WAVE ENERGY
ROTATING IN OUR DIRECTION. AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL ALOFT LAPSE
RATES SHOULD BE STEEP ENOUGH TO COMBINE WITH SOME DIURNAL INSTABILITY
TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE MORNING ON.
HIGHS ION WEDNESDAY WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER
70S EAST TO 60/65 WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SUPPORTS DEVELOPMENT OF AN OMEGA BLOCK WITH
CUTOFF LOWS ON THE EAST AND WEST COASTS OF THE CONUS...A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE IN-BETWEEN.  PATTERN TRANSITION WILL TAKE PLACE
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SINKS
SOUTH FROM HUDSON BAY REGION THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY. THIS TROUGH WILL CUTOFF OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY...AND
THEN STALL VCNTY OF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST FOR FRIDAY.  SPOKES OF
VORTICITY WILL BE SPIRALING AROUND THE UPPER LOW...EACH VORT AXIS
PROVIDING DYNAMIC LIFT FOR SHOWERS.  AS SUCH...EXPECTING PERSISTENT
UNSETTLED WEATHER DURING THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WITH
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND THE THREAT OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL
STRUGGLE PER ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...SHOWERS...AND COLD POOL ALOFT.
FORECAST 85H TEMPS OF 0 TO +5 DEGREES C SUGGEST WE WILL BE
UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH SFC TEMPERATURES 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM EDT TUESDAY...

CUTOFF LOW VCNTY OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY SATURDAY WILL BEGIN
TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT EAST THIS WEEKEND AS FLOW ALOFT SLOWLY EVOLVES
INTO A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN FOR THE SECOND WEEK OF MAY. THE
WEEKEND WILL BE OUR TRANSITION BETWEEN THE TWO PATTERNS SO LOOK FOR
SATURDAY TO BE THE COOLER OF THE TWO DAYS. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
FINALLY WIN OUT BY SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FAVORING THE WARMER SIDE
OF NORMAL FOR SUNDAY AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

MODELS STILL HANG ONTO SOME LINGERING CLOUDS SATURDAY...BUT THINK
SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER LOW SHOULD FAVOR MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS. MODELS BRING ANOTHER FRONT INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST SUNDAY...THIS FEATURE STALLING SOUTH OF THE REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT BEFORE RETURNING AS A WARM FRONT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT WILL RESULT IN A RISK FOR SHOWERS
DURING THE PERIOD...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ON TIMING OR AMOUNTS ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 745 AM EDT TUESDAY...

POP UP SHOWERS WILL BE PRESENT THROUGHOUT THE REGION AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED FOR
MOST IN HIGHER ELEVATIONS...VFR SHOULD BE PREDOMINANT FOR THE
PIEDMONT. THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH SOME OF
THESE SHOWERS. CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF PRECIP THAT HAS FALLEN
LATELY...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF AMBIENT MOISTURE IN THE AIR. THIS
AND BELOW NORMAL LOWS EXPECTED TONIGHT...MOST ALL LOCATIONS WILL
REACH THE CROSSOVER TEMP AND FOG CAN BE EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE
USUAL AREAS. AS OF THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IN JUST HOW MUCH VIS WILL BE
RESTRICTED IS LOW...BUT SOME WILL MORE THAN LIKELY FALL TO IFR IN THE
PRE-DAWN HOURS. AFTERWARDS...MOST WILL RETURN TO VFR WITH SOME
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS MAINTAINING MVFR CONDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

A DEEP LOW WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD FROM CANADA TOMORROW AND SETTLE OVER
THE MID ATLANTIC FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE EXPECTED
TO BE MVFR OR WORSE FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK DUE TO
PERIODIC SHOWERS...ISOLATED THUNDER...LOWS CIGS....AND FOG.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JR/RAB


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