Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 311205
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
705 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 31/12Z TAFS...PATCHY FOG IS SLOWLY SPREADING NWD INTO
PORTIONS OF DEEP E TX...THE TOLEDO BEND COUNTRY...AND CNTRL LA.
KLFK COULD BE AFFECTED FOR A COUPLE OF HRS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
TAF PERIOD. SOME PATCHY FOG IN SRN AR MAY ALSO AFFECT KELD. ANY
LOWERED VSBYS SHOULD QUICKLY IMPROVE BY 31/15Z ALLOWING VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AREAWIDE. A FEW ISOLATED SHWRS MAY DEVELOP
AFTER 31/18Z BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO SPOTTY TO MENTION
IN THE TAFS. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 500 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
FAIR SKIES NORTH OF I-20 AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SOUTH. THERE
ARE A HANDFUL OF SITES IN THE UPPER 60S WITH MOSTLY LOWER 70S.
OUR DEW POINTS CONTINUE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S JUST ABOUT AREA
WIDE. THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS A SHEAR AXIS FROM THE RIO GRANDE...TO
THE ARKLATEX...TO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH WINDS ALOFT ALL OVER THE
PLACE ON THE VAD AND THAT MAYBE BELOW THE FREEZING LEVEL. OUR
SOUNDING LAST NIGHT SHOWED SIMILAR WITH A GENERAL W/SW FLOW ABOVE
FREEZING.

THE WATER VAPOR IS SHOWING AN ANCHOR LOW OVER S TX...EDGING IN
OVER THE COASTAL BEND. RATHER ODD PATTERN REALLY...BUT THE
DOLDRUMS OR DULLDRUMS OF LATE SUMMER ARE JUST THAT...NOT MUCH OF
ANYTHING TO HANG YOUR HAT ON WITH ANY REAL CONFIDENCE. ANY QPF
WILL BE GENERALLY QUITE LIGHT WITH A 1.4 PWAT. THE VAST MAJORITY
OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS WELL OFF TO THE EAST OVER FL WRAPPING
INTO A LOW OVER VA/NC. MOST OF WHAT WE SEE ON THE WATER VAPOR IS
MORE OR LESS JUST EDDIES IN THE FLOW IN THE WAKE OF LAST WEEK BIG
TROUGH WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF IMPACT ASIDE FROM SHIFTING
DIRECTIONS.

MODEL TRENDS ARE PRETTY LIGHT WITH ANY QPF AND VARY GREATLY
ACROSS THE SPECTRUM WITH EURO THE MOST GENEROUS RAIN MAKER. HRRR
SHOWED SOME SPOTTY DEVELOPMENT TODAY ACROSS THE NORTH NEAR THE
WASHED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY OF LATE. LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE SHOULD
BE EXPECTED ANY TIME SOON WITH PERHAPS A STRONGER COLD FRONT BY
NEXT WEEK. UNTIL THEN...LATE SUMMER CLIMATOLOGY WILL BE APPLICABLE
INTO THE NEW MONTH AND THEN SOME. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  95  73  94  73 /  10  10  20  10
MLU  95  71  96  73 /  20  10  20  20
DEQ  94  68  93  69 /  20   0  10  10
TXK  94  70  94  72 /  10  10  10  10
ELD  95  68  94  71 /  20  10  20  10
TYR  92  74  92  72 /  10  10  20  10
GGG  94  73  93  72 /  10  10  20  10
LFK  93  71  91  70 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09


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