Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 100021
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
621 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 10/00Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD WITH DEEP NW FLOW CONTINUING FOR THE MOMENT. GUSTY SURFACE
WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO DROP OFF RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET AND WILL FURTHER
DIMINISH TO LGT/VRBL AS WE APPROACH DAYBREAK WITH THE CENTER OF SFC
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE FOUR STATE REGION LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. RETURNING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL COMMENCE BY
LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS RANGING FROM 5-10 KTS.
ASIDE FROM PASSING CIRRUS...SKC CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. /19/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016/

DISCUSSION...
GUSTY WNWLY WINDS CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...AS
THE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS QUITE SHARP. THIS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HAVE TOYED WITH THE
IDEA OF EXTENDING THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 6 PM...BUT HAVE
DECIDED AGAINST DOING SO. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT WINDS MAY
MEET ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR A SHORT TIME AFTER 4 PM...BUT THESE
OCCURRENCES SHOULD QUICKLY BECOME ISOLD AS WE APPROACH THE 5 PM
HOUR.

SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES TO CHARACTERIZE THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR OUR
REGION...AS WE REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF AN
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROF OVER THE ERN CONUS. THIS GENERAL PATTERN IS
FCST TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF
DRY AIR AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH TEMPS
NECESSARILY WARMER THAN TODAY AS A RESULT.

DRY BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY...AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY. THIS WILL GRADUALLY COOL US DOWN FRIDAY AND BACK TO
NEAR NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS BY SATURDAY.

UPPER TROF WILL FINALLY MOVE OFF THE E COAST AS ANOTHER LINES UP
OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND MOVES INTO THE PLAINS DURING SUNDAY.
DEVELOPING SFC LOW PRESSURE IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER
SHORTWAVE WILL DRAW FRIDAY`S COLD FRONT BACK NWD OVER CENTRAL/N
TX. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW SHWRS OVER OUR FAR WRN E TX/SE OK
COUNTIES SUNDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES...BEFORE THE
SHORTWAVE DIVES SEWD INTO OUR REGION AND BRINGS ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MONDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DECENT QPF WITH MONDAY`S
SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT...DESPITE THE SHORT TIME OF MOISTURE RECOVERY
IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM. HAVE CONTINUED THE CONSERVATIVE
APPROACH CONSIDERING THE DAY SEVEN POSITION...BUT THIS LOOKS LIKE
OUR BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE. /12/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  33  60  46  71 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  31  54  42  69 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  26  56  37  64 /   0   0   0   0
TXK  30  57  43  65 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  27  55  41  65 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  35  63  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  33  63  48  71 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  35  64  47  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

19


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