Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 220553 AAA
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1153 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS REMAIN PREVALENT ACROSS E TX/SE OK/SW AR LATE THIS
EVENING...WITH AREAS OF IFR/LIFR CIGS DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF DEEP E TX/NCNTRL LA WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NNE INTO
SCNTRL AR THROUGH 09Z. CAN/T RULE OUT PATCHY FG DEVELOPING OVER
NCNTRL LA/SCNTRL AR AS THESE LOW CIGS MOVE IN...BUT A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD HELP KEEP THE FG AT BAY OVERNIGHT.
FARTHER W...CIGS SHOULD BECOME IFR PRIOR TO DAYBREAK...WITH THESE
LOW CIGS STUBBORN TO LIFT THROUGH THE DAY. SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO LOW
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT
SHOULD SEE SOME FURTHER IMPROVEMENT AFTER 00Z TUESDAY OVER THE WRN
SECTIONS OF E TX/SE OK AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SHIFTS E INTO THE
AREA. CAN/T RULE OUT ISOLATED -SHRA DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY/EARLY
AFTERNOON OVER NCNTRL LA/SCNTRL AR...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
AFFECTING THE MLU/ELD TERMINALS. SSE WINDS 5-10KTS OVERNIGHT WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY AFTER 16Z MONDAY. /15/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 PM CST SUN DEC 21 2014/

UPDATE...
JUST A FEW CHANGES TO SKY AND PATCHY FOG AREA...OVERNIGHT LOWS AND
DEW POINTS. ALSO...ADDED SOME LIGHT RAIN EARLY IN THE NEW DAY.

DISCUSSION...
LOTS OF STRATUS ALREADY CREEPING IN ACROSS I-20 IN TEXAS AND NEAR
THERE IN LOUISIANA. THE LOW LEVEL JET HAS ALREADY TACKED ON 10KTS
SINCE OUR SOUNDING WITH SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGHTENING LIKELY
OVERNIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHELRY WINDS ALREADY TURNING THE TIDE ON DEW
POINTS...SO WE HAVE BUMPED THE OVERNIGHT LOWS A BIT ACROSS THE
AREA FOR ALL EXCEPT EL DORADO WHERE WE LOWERED A COUPLE WITH 43
OVER 40 THERE NOW AND CALM. LOWS MAY OCCUR SOON IN MANY LOCALES AS
CLOUDS THICKEN UP OVERNIGHT THE CHANCE FOR A TIDE THERE TOO AND
PERHAPS LESS PATCHY FOG WITH NEW NAM WINDS INCREASING A BIT
OVERNIGHT FROM CURRENT OBS ANYWAY. WE HAVE ADDED A 20 POP FOR
SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN AS OVERNIGHT DRIZZLE MAY PICK UP IN SIZE
AFTER DAYBREAK WITH SLOWLY LIFTING CEILINGS. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  48  66  52  54  36 /  10  20  30  50  30
MLU  47  64  55  61  37 /  10  30  40  60  40
DEQ  46  60  44  49  31 /  10  20  20  40  20
TXK  46  62  48  51  34 /  10  20  20  40  30
ELD  41  62  48  56  34 /  10  20  30  60  40
TYR  48  65  45  51  36 /  10  10  20  40  10
GGG  47  66  49  52  35 /  10  10  20  40  20
LFK  50  69  54  56  36 /  10  10  20  50  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

15





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