Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 241118
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
618 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.AVIATION...
MVFR CIGS CURRENTLY NOTED OVER E TX. THESE WILL LIFT TO VFR BY MID
MORNING...AS MIXING COMMENCES. SHWRS/TSTMS POSSIBLE TODAY WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE BEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO BE ACROSS SW AR TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SKIES
ARE EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY CLEAR BEHIND THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...S-SWLY
WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KTS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY...BECOMING W AND NW AFTER FROPA THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT AT
LESS THAN 5 KTS. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 417 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014/

DISCUSSION...
TODAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION...DRIVING A COLD
FRONT INTO THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. BY THE AFTERNOON SCATTERED STRONG
TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM FROM SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI THROUGH ARKANSAS AND INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA. THE TROUGH
WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A 50 KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX...PROVIDING
AMPLE SHEAR FOR THE SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE LIMITING FACTOR
ACROSS THIS AREA WILL BE MOISTURE...SO WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD POPS
BELOW 50 PERCENT. HAVE ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR TODAY TO
COVER 15 TO 20 MPH WIND AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES. MODELS NOW
HAVE THE COLD FRONT REACHING THE COAST BY FRIDAY MORNING...BUT
WITH LITTLE UPPER SUPPORT IT SHOULD MIX OUT BY THE AFTERNOON.
OTHER THAN SLIGHTLY COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
WEATHER FOR THE AREA. SURFACE WIND SHOULD BE BACK TO SOUTHERLY BY
00Z SATURDAY.

ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY
IN THE WEEKEND...AND THIS ONE WILL BRING HIGHER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION AND SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
A SLOW MOVING...CLOSED SYSTEM WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NOT
EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THE CHANCE
FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER ON MONDAY LOOKS LOW...AS DRY AIR
ALOFT WORKS INTO THE REGION. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW
THE FRONT ON TUESDAY...WITH MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED FOR
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. /14/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  84  61  84  57  85 /  40  20  10  10  10
MLU  86  59  83  56  86 /  40  30  10  10  10
DEQ  80  50  83  53  84 /  40  10  10  10  10
TXK  81  57  82  59  84 /  40  10  10  10  10
ELD  83  54  82  52  85 /  40  30  10  10  10
TYR  82  57  84  59  84 /  30  10  10  10  10
GGG  84  58  84  56  84 /  30  10  10  10  10
LFK  85  59  86  61  85 /  30  20  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ARZ070>073.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: LAZ001>006-010>014.

OK...NONE.
TX...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153.

&&

$$

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