Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KSHV 252350
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
650 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.AVIATION...
FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS AT 5KFT EVAPORATING WITH SUNDOWN AND NOTHING
BUT SCT CIRRUS AND A QUIET NIGHT IN STORE. MORE OR LESS A REPEAT
TOMORROW AND SUNDAY WITH LIGHT MVFR POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. SFC
WINDS WILL BE S/SW 5-10 KTS. ALOFT...SW 20KTS VEER AROUND TO NE BY
10KFT 30KTS. A COLD FRONT WITH THUNDER EARLY NEXT WEEK./24/


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THE RESIDUAL SFC TROUGH OVER WRN AND SCNTRL AR/NE LA HAS BEGUN TO
WORK BACK NE AND WASH OUT...AND IS EVIDENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY WITH THE CU FIELD ADVANCING NE ACROSS CNTRL/SE AR AND
NCNTRL MS. WE HAVE SEEN SOME MIXING THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER
NCNTRL LA...WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING RESULTED IN SOME
ABNORMALLY HIGH DEWPOINTS LATE THIS MORNING. FORTUNATELY...EVEN
WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S...HEAT INDICES HAVEN/T BEEN
MUCH HIGHER...WITH A COUPLE LOCALES EXCEEDING THE CENTURY MARK /IN
LFK AND IER/. AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR SOME TIME...MOS STILL HAS
BEEN RUNNING A LITTLE HOT ON MAX TEMPS GIVEN THE AMPLE SOIL
MOISTURE IN PLACE FROM RECENT RAINFALL...BUT SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS
CONTINUE TO NUDGE UPWARD AS THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM
THE SRN ROCKIES E INTO THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY PERSISTS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. GIVEN RECENT TEMP TRENDS...HAVE CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT
MOS A FEW DEGREES THIS WEEKEND EVEN AS THE RIDGE PERSISTS...THUS
ANY TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPS SHOULD BE ISOLATED. HOWEVER...HEAT INDICES
WILL RANGE FROM 100-105 DEGREES...AND THE EXPECTATION IS NOW THAT
HEAT ADVISORIES SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED FOR OUR REGION.

THE HEAT WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE BEGINS
TO RETROGRADE W ONCE LONGWAVE TROUGHING BEGINS TO DIG SEWD ACROSS
THE PLAINS/MS VALLEY INTO THE ERN CONUS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
ANOTHER WEAK COOL FRONT TO SLIDE SWD INTO THE REGION MONDAY.
UNFORTUNATELY...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
BE NON-EXISTENT...ALTHOUGH SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING SE ATOP THE
FRONT WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED/SCT MAINLY
ELEVATED CONVECTION LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE
MEDIUM RANGE PROGS HAVE ALL TRENDED FASTER/FARTHER S WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE REACHING SE TX/S LA BEFORE STALLING
TUESDAY...RESULTING IN A FASTER INTRUSION OF DRY AIR BEHIND THE
FRONT AND THUS TAPERING POPS OFF FASTER FROM N TO S. HAVE
REFLECTED THIS TREND AS WELL IN THE EXTENDED...DROPPING POPS
AREAWIDE TUESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS
SCT CONVECTION MAY AGAIN INCREASE TO OUR NW LATE
WEDNESDAY...SLIDING SE ALONG/N OF THE STALLED FRONT INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY. THIS IS ABOUT A DAY SLOWER THAN THE GENERAL MODEL
CONSENSUS THE LAST FEW DAYS...WITH GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE
12Z GFS/ECMWF IN THIS SCENARIO. HAVE DELAYED EXPANSION OF CHANCE
POPS AREAWIDE UNTIL THURSDAY AS THIS SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE
REGION. EVEN THOUGH QPF/S DO NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH THE NEXT 7
DAYS...TEMPS/HUMDITIES SHOULD BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...
WITH THIS TREND LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW BELOW...

15

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  74  96  75  96  75 /   0   0   0   0  10
MLU  72  95  73  94  74 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEQ  69  94  71  95  73 /   0   0   0   0  20
TXK  72  95  74  96  74 /   0   0   0   0  20
ELD  70  94  73  95  74 /   0   0   0   0  20
TYR  74  96  76  97  75 /   0   0   0   0  10
GGG  74  95  75  96  75 /   0   0   0   0  10
LFK  74  97  74  97  75 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

24




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.