Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 260423
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1123 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017

.AVIATION...
Very little change in thinking with this new TAF cycle compared to
the 00z TAF cycle. Only change as to delay the onset of MVFR
ceilings slightly as most ceilings were currently near 4kft as of
04z this evening. Eventually we will see these ceilings fall to
MVFR categories and cannot rule out a brief IFR ceiling but if
that occurs, most favorable terminal location would be our NE TX
terminals near or prior to sunrise. Still expecting a line of
convection to move into our terminal airspace by late morning and
effecting our airspace from west to east throughout the day. Went
ahead and added VCTS and tempo TSRA groups to the ELD/MLU terminal
locations with this package. Also added wind shift groups towards
the tail end of this terminal package to a few more locations.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1027 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Have made changes to the rain chances for late tonight for the
far Northern zones in SE OK and parts of SW AR, then increased
and changed the location of the higher chances for Wednesday along
with adding the chance for severe thunderstorms and heavy
rainfall. Later tonight around midnight will let the lake wind
advisory expire for most areas, but another lake wind advisory
will be required for Wednesday as the pressure gradient will
tighten and all zones in the Four State Region will need mention
of the strong and gusty winds. During the afternoon and into the
evening the winds look to be in the 20-25 MPH range and possible
higher for some areas to around 25-30 MPH sustained winds with
higher gusts. Loose items will be blown around during the day
Wednesday with the thunderstorm winds and then the non-
thunderstorm winds.

/06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  70  81  50  78 /  10  60  30  10
MLU  68  82  54  78 /  10  50  50  10
DEQ  68  75  45  74 /  20  80  30  10
TXK  69  77  47  76 /  20  80  40  10
ELD  68  78  49  76 /  10  70  60  10
TYR  70  80  49  82 /  20  50  20  10
GGG  71  81  48  82 /  10  50  20  10
LFK  73  85  53  85 /  10  40  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

06/13



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