Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 231132
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
632 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR UNDER THE BIG RIDGE AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KMLU. THE GOLF
COURSE SPRINKLER HAD AN IFR CIG AND 3/4 SM BR...A COUPLE HOURS
BACK WITH 5 OR 6 SM AND HOLDING FOR THE LAST HR. A FEW STRANDS OF
MVFR CIGS NEAR KPSN BACK DOWN TO KCLL ARE EN ROUTE AND MAY AFFECT A
FEW OF TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT HR OR FEW. SFC WINDS ARE LIGHT SW
OVER E TX OR CALM ELSEWHERE. ALOFT...SW FLOW LESS THAN 20KTS EXTENDS
UP TO 3KFT...THEN BACKS AROUND TO LIGHTER SE AND NE INTO THE MID
LEVELS. VFR HOT AND DRY FOR THE DAY AHEAD AND LIKELY SUNDAY TOO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 557 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...

LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR STATE AREA THIS
MORNING AND ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE AREA. WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD
THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE CLOUD COVER AND WEATHER HOT TEMPERATURES
DUE MORE SUNSHINE. THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS THE DAYTIME HIGHS OVER
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS HAVE
BEEN A LITTLE COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 90/S. THINK
THE COOLER READINGS ARE DUE TO RECENT RAINFALL THAT PROVIDE SOIL
MOISTURE. THIS WILL BE CHANGING AS THE GROUND DRIES OUT WITH A
SLOW CLIMB. OTHER LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 90/S. WITH DRYING DURING
THE DAY DUE TO MIXING OUT OF THE DEW POINTS NOT EXPECTING THE
RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS TO BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES
ABOVE 105 DEGREES TO OCCUR. EVEN WITH THE TEMPERATURES SLOWLY
RISING FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND CRITERIA FOR AN ADVISORY WILL
NOT BE MET. BY MONDAY...THE RIDGE ALOFT BEGINS TO LIFT
NORTH DURING THE FIRST OF THE WEEK AS DISTURBANCES MOVING INTO THE
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN STATES AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES UNDER
THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. THIS SOUTHERN DISTURBANCE
WILL PROVIDE THE SOUTHERN ZONES WITH RAIN CHANCES MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT WITH MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION AREA WIDE INTO MID
WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE REFORMS FROM NORTH TEXAS ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST. THE RIDGE ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN THROUGH THE LATE HALF OF THE WORK WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...KEEPING RAIN CHANCES ONGOING
AND ALLOWING FOR SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES. LATE NEXT WEEK THE
MODELS HINT AT A COLD FRONT TO RETURN TO THE REGION. THIS AREA
USUALLY SEES COOLER TEMPERATURES TO OCCUR AROUND LABOR DAY. /06/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  98  73  98  74  97 /   0   0   0   0  10
MLU  97  71  97  73  95 /   0   0   0  20  20
DEQ  95  72  96  71  96 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  97  73  97  74  97 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  96  71  96  72  96 /   0   0   0   0  10
TYR  98  75  98  75  99 /   0   0   0   0  10
GGG  97  73  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0  10
LFK  97  74  97  74  97 /  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

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