Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 180517
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1217 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 18/06Z TAFS...TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION WILL AFFECT THE AREA
EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION IS MOVING SWD
INTO SE OK/EXTREME SW AR. THIS LINE HAS SHOWN A TENDENCY TO
BACK-BUILD TOWARDS THE WEST SO BELIEVE THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN W
OF KTXK. THESE STORMS HAVE BEEN CYCLING BUT HAVE SHOWN SOME SIGNS
OF DIMINISHING SO CURRENT THINKING IS THEY WILL NOT PERSIST S OF
I-30 BUT CANNOT RULE OF CONVECTION AFFECTING KTYR/KGG LATER THIS
MORNING. FARTHER S...THE ERN EDGE OF A LARGE AREA OF RAIN MAY
AFFECT KLFK FOR A COUPLE OF HRS.

OTHERWISE...LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING LEADING TO MVFR/IFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS.
IMPROVEMENT BACK INTO THE VFR RANGE IS EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE
MORNING. MORE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND AFFECT MUCH OF
THE AREA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
INCREASING MOISTURE/ASCENT FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE ODILE
MAY ALLOW CONVECTION TO PERSIST LATE INTO THE TAF PERIOD. /09/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 900 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
LOCAL AND REGIONAL RADARS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WELL DEFINED
DISTURBANCE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS MOVING SOUTH SOUTHWEST IN WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS
CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED A COLD POOL
WHICH IS HELPING TO INITIATE AND SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION EVEN AFTER
SUNSET. LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS CAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG IN OUR
VICINITY OF SE OK INTO SW AR WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE CONVECTION
SHOULD CONTINUE TO COME SOUTH AT LEAST INTO OUR FAR NW ZONES LATER
THIS EVENING. LATEST HRRR SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO WITH THE
CONVECTION WEAKENING QUICKLY JUST BEFORE IT MAKE IT TO TXK. FOR
THIS REASON...HAVE RAISED POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY ACROSS OUR NW
ZONES THIS EVENING.

ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION IS MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE ACROSS NE TX
DESPITE INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS OUR SW ZONES. PWATS NEAR 2
INCHES EXIST MAINLY TO THE WEST OF A LINE FROM TYR TO THE LOWER
TOLEDO BEND RESERVOIR AND THIS IS WHERE WE WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE LOW END CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS ATTM SHOWING NO TENDENCY TO WANT TO MOVE TOWARDS OUR REGION
FROM THE WEST SO LOW END CHANCE POPS ACROSS THIS REGION SHOULD
SUFFICE.

DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER TONIGHT
COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO GIVEN AND GIVEN THE INCREASING MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...THIS WILL LIKELY HAVE AN EFFECT ON OUR
TEMPERATURES ACROSS A FEW LOCATIONS. BUMPED OVERNIGHT LOWS UP
ACROSS OUR EASTERN MOST ZONES MAINLY. ELSEWHERE...LOWER 70S SHOULD
SUFFICE EXCEPT FOR UPPER 60S ACROSS OUR EXTREME NW ZONES WHERE
CONVECTION COULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW 70 DEGREES.

OTHERWISE...ALL OTHER FORECAST PARAMETERS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE
WITH NO OTHER CHANGES NECESSARY ATTM.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  68  92  70  91  72 /  10  10  10  10  10
MLU  67  92  68  92  69 /  10  10  10  10  10
DEQ  66  88  67  89  68 /  10  10  10  10  30
TXK  67  89  69  90  70 /  10  10  10  10  20
ELD  67  89  67  90  69 /  10  10  10  10  10
TYR  68  89  70  90  72 /  20  10  10  20  20
GGG  67  90  69  91  71 /  20  10  10  10  10
LFK  69  91  70  91  71 /  20  20  10  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

09




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