Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 240434
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1134 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

By early this afternoon, the mid-level trough axis was progressing
eastward across the CWA with the associated closed mid-level low
located over southern Minnesota/northern Iowa. Isentropic lift on
the backside of this exiting trough was resulting in scattered
showers developing over southern Nebraska, which were sliding
southeastward across north central Kansas.  Short-range models show
these isolated to scattered showers continuing to spread across the
CWA through the remainder of the afternoon hours, with any lingering
showers over east central Kansas dissipating by around sunset.  With
these scattered showers, cannot completely rule out the potential
for an isolated thunderstorm as SPC meso analysis continues to show
upwards of 250 J/kg of CAPE through the afternoon.

Overnight into Wednesday, the closed mid-level low will shift
southward into Missouri, with northwesterly flow aloft providing
weak CAA which will keep temperatures below the seasonal normals.
Cloud cover will begin to scatter out across north central KS
overnight, so expect low temperatures to range from the mid to upper
40s west to east over the CWA.  With the mid-level trough remaining
over Missouri through the day tomorrow, nearby showers in far
western Missouri will keep cloud cover over eastern Kansas through
much of the day.  As a result, Wednesday high temperatures will
likely range from the mid to upper 60s east to west across the
CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 235 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

Temporary ridge axis aloft Wednesday evening and Thursday returns
clear skies to the region. Temperatures warm as southerly winds
become gusty during the afternoon with highs in the upper 70s to
lower 80s. Deepening low pressure system entering the western high
plains will likely develop convection over western KS Thursday
evening, with some uncertainty on timing and therefore severity as
they enter our CWA. Model output continues to differ on coverage
and timing varying from late Thursday or perhaps during the day
Friday. Therefore have kept pops on the lower end of the chance
category. All storms during the evening hours may become strong,
capable of hail and gusty winds. The GFS takes the frontal
boundary down to the KS and OK border, while the ECMWF is much
further south. If the GFS spans out, convection may develop once
again near the boundary, in addition to an mcs forming within a
vorticity lobe across the northern half of KS. Throughout the
weekend with the occasional thunderstorms, ample wind dynamics and
instability may result in a few strong to severe storms during
this period. However, with the many uncertainties still,
confidence is not high in any particular period.

Conditions appear to dry out Sunday onward as the front clears the
region and main upper low lifts into the Great Lakes region.
Temperatures throughout the region remain seasonably warm with highs
in the low 80s and lows in the upper 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1123 PM CDT Tue May 23 2017

VFR conditions expected for most of the taf period. There is a
slight chance that MVFR/IFR ceilings form tonight and move over
the taf sites especially TOP/FOE. Although confidence in this is
low and the better chances appear to be across western MO.
Tomorrow mixing should allow ceilings to lift regardless. There
may be occasional wind gusts at TOP/FOE approaching 20 kt during
the late morning. Isolated showers to scattered showers will move
through far western MO during late morning and early afternoon,
which may get close to TOP/FOE.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Prieto
AVIATION...Sanders



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