Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 231756
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
1156 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 244 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

The upper low that produced a band of heavy snow across northwest KS
northeast across central and northeast NE, and produced 1 to 3
inches of snowfall across the TOP CWA, was located across the mid
MS river valley early this morning. The upper low will lift
northeast across the eastern Great Lakes This afternoon and then
into New England Tonight. Skies will gradually clear this morning
across northeast and east central KS as the upper low continues to
lift northeast towards the eastern Great Lakes.

Morning lows will dip into the lower 20s across the western counties
where skies will be clear and into the mid to upper 20s across the
eastern counties with the cloud cover lingering. Any snow covered
or wet roadways will refreeze producing icy spots for the morning
commute. Northwest winds will diminish this morning and will back
more to the west through the afternoon hours. Highs Today will
vary dependent on snow cover. The southern counties did not see
much in the way of accumulating snowfall and may warm into the
lower to mid 40s. While the north central counties, which received
2 to 3 inches of snow cover, will struggle into the mid 30s for
highs.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 244 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

The upper air pattern will become more progressive during the
extended forecast period, with an upper level ridge over the western
conus Today shifting east into the plains on Thursday, while an
upper level trough moves east into the western US.

A lee surface trough will deepen across the central high plains
while a surface ridge of high pressure moves east across the south
central US. Southerly low-level winds across eastern KS will
result in low-level WAA and a warming trend with highs reaching
into the upper 40s and lower 50s on Wednesday, and mid 50s to
lower 60s by Thursday.

The upper level trough across the western US will move east across
the plains Friday night into Saturday. At this time the 850mb winds
look to veer enough, ahead of the upper level trough, to keep the
deeper residual gulf moisture southeast of the CWA. However,
there may be enough ascent ahead of the H5 trough and a cold front
moving southeast across the CWA Friday night for a chance of
showers. Some of these showers may mix with or change over to
light snow across east central Kansas Saturday morning. At this
time the precip looks light and I`m expecting at most only trace
accumulations of snowfall Saturday morning across east central KS.

Highs on Friday will warm into the mid to upper 50s ahead of the
front but highs will cool slightly for the weekend with mid to upper
40s expected Saturday and Sunday.

An upper level ridge will move east across the plains early next
week with high temperatures warming back into the 50s next Monday
and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1134 AM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

For the 18Z TAFs, MVFR conditions lifting at KMHK and should
continue to improve quickly this afternoon. MVFR CIGS hang on a
little longer into the mid afternoon at KTOP/KFOE and improve to
more predominant SCT conditions into the 00Z time frame. May be
some ground fog mainly over snow covered areas near the 12Z time
frame, but have not mentioned due to shallow nature of the
moisture (at the surface) and dry air mixing in aloft with
continued subsidence. May also be enough mid level cloud cover to
prevent too much radiational cooling.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Gargan
AVIATION...Drake



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