Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Topeka, KS

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FXUS63 KTOP 012114

National Weather Service Topeka KS
314 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 313 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015

This afternoon the closed mid-level low was co-located with the
surface low over Minnesota and Iowa.  A trough axis stretched into
Nebraska and was sliding southeastward toward northeast Kansas.
There was enough lift and moisture to produce some flurries and a
few light snow showers across Nebraska ahead of this trough axis.
Short-range model soundings show that available moisture across far
northern/far northeast Kansas may be limited so only expect some
scattered snow flurries this afternoon.  This passing trough axis
will help to bring increased cloud cover into the area this
afternoon through tonight. With these low clouds in place, increased
low temperatures for tonight by a couple of degrees with lows in the
upper 20s.  The region will remain under northwesterly flow tomorrow
as the mid and surface lows shift northeast of the area and surface
high pressure advances into western Kansas.  This advancing surface
high will help to clear out the cloud cover from west to east
through the day, but the continued northwesterly winds will keep
conditions cooler with highs in the low/mid 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 313 PM CST TUE DEC 1 2015

Surface high pressure will dominate the central US as the main
mid/upper level low lifts over the northeastern US. Return flow and
moderating temperatures will allowing highs to reach the 50s. The next
mid level low pressure is forecast to pass over the central Rockies
and eventually the plains this weekend. The return flow will be
fairly brief before this system approaches so available moisture may
limit the precip chances. The isentropic lift appears to increase in
the low to mid levels right ahead of the shortwave. This may
provide the lift needed to develop light precip mainly in the form
of rain on Sunday. Since the models have been inconsistent on the
exact track on this low have decided not to make many changes to
the forecast.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1140 AM CST TUE DEC 1 2015

For the 18z TAFs, west-southwesterly winds will continue to gust
upwards of around 20kts before diminishing some by late this
afternoon. Expect increased cloud cover tonight into Wednesday as
a mid-level trough tracks eastward over the area. However, there
is some model uncertainty with regards to how low ceiling heights may
drop with some models hinting at MVFR cigs, so have added the
mention of scattered MVFR cigs at this time and will continue to
monitor this potential in future TAF updates.


.TOP Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Sanders
AVIATION...Hennecke is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.