Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS28 KWNS 221958

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0257 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Valid 241200Z - 301200Z

Hot surface temperatures will affect the southwestern states and
portions of the Great Basin beneath a midlevel ridge from this
weekend into next week. Northward transport of midlevel moisture and
small disturbances on the western periphery of the ridge, combined
with the progression of a more prominent impulse from the east
Pacific, will support isolated thunderstorm potential over the
vicinity of the northern Great Basin for Day-4/Sunday into
Day-5/Monday. Antecedent deep, well-mixed boundary layers associated
with hot/dry surface conditions over the northern extent of the
dampening midlevel ridge will be favorable for a dry-thunderstorm
mode, amid sufficiently dry fuels. Furthermore, sufficient
enhancement to the flow peripheral to the impulse is expected to
support some critical, wind-driven fire-weather risk across parts of
the southwest states and central Great Basin vicinity for
Day-5/Monday into Day-6/Tuesday, when 40-percent areas have been
included. However, differences among model solutions regarding the
evolution of the impulse are too substantial for critical
designation. For Day-7/Wednesday into Day-8/Thursday, dispersion
among medium-range model solutions regarding the large-scale pattern
yields too little predictability for probabilistic delineations.

..Cohen.. 06/22/2017

...Please see for graphic product...

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