Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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080
FNUS28 KWNS 202159
FWDD38

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2017

Valid 221200Z - 281200Z

An active fire-weather pattern is expected for much of this week.

An amplified mid-level-flow pattern early in the week will give way
to southwesterly flow across much of the eastern United States as a
broad trough strengthens/deepens as it moves east. This will result
in several days of downslope warming/drying across the southern
Plains.

...Day 3/Wednesday and Day 4/Thursday...
As the aforementioned mid-upper-level trough moves into the interior
Pacific Northwest, southwest flow will strengthen across the
southern/central Rocky Mountains. The resulting downslope winds will
aid strong warming/drying across the southern Front Range and
southern High Plains. On Wednesday (Day 3), strongest surface winds
and lowest relative humidity should occur across the Front Range of
Colorado, and focused highest critical probabilities here. By
Thursday (Day 4), downslope flow should strengthen and expand to
encompass a broad area of the Front Range and southern High Plains.
The resulting warming/drying will result in widespread critical
conditions.

...Day 5/Friday and Day 6/Saturday...
West/northwest mid-level flow will develop across the southern
Plains in the wake of the aforementioned mid-level trough. This,
combined with northwest flow behind a modest surface-cold front will
result in yet another day of warm/dry conditions across the southern
High Plains. At this time, confidence in widespread critical
conditions is too low to introduce 70% areas, but maintained the
going 40% areas.

..Marsh.. 02/20/2017

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$



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