Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS28 KWNS 211844

Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0144 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Valid 231200Z - 291200Z


An upper-level ridge is forecast to strengthen along the West Coast
on Monday (Day 3), as a trough over the northern Plains deepens and
moves toward the southeast by mid-week. At the surface, high
pressure is forecast to become centered over the northern
Intermountain West extending southeast toward the central Rockies
from Monday (Day 3) into Tuesday (Day 4). The surface high pressure
over the West is expected to weaken on Wednesday (Day 5), as a low
pressure system is forecast to move southeastward out of British
Columbia toward the central Plains.

...Southern California (D3/Monday - D4/Tuesday)...
Continued warming and drying is expected on Monday (Day 3) and
Tuesday (Day 4) as the upper-level ridge builds over the West Coast.
Near-record to record high temperatures are expected over many
locations in southern California, resulting in afternoon RH values
falling into the single digits.  These hot and dry conditions
coupled with a surface pressure gradient favoring offshore flow will
result in periods of sustained easterly to northeasterly surface
winds of 20 mph with much higher gusts in terrain-favored locations.
As a result, critical fire weather areas are highlighted for Monday
(Day 3) and Tuesday (Day 4). The surface pressure gradient across
southern California is expected to peak Tuesday morning and weaken
significantly on Wednesday (Day 5).

...Northern/Central Plains (D3/Monday - D4/Tuesday)...
Gusty northwest winds are likely across the northern Plains on
Monday (Day 4) and the central Plains on Tuesday (Day 5).
Uncertainty regarding RH values (too moist), antecedent
precipitation, and fuel receptiveness preclude introducing any
threat areas with this outlook. However, areas may be needed in
subsequent outlooks if guidance trends drier/warmer.

..Jirak.. 10/21/2017

...Please see for graphic product...

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