Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS28 KWNS 052200
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 PM CST FRI FEB 05 2016

VALID 071200Z - 131200Z

UPPER PATTERN WILL AMPLIFY SIGNIFICANTLY ON D3/SUN AND D4/MON AS AN
UPPER LOW DROPS SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY
WHILE DEEPENING AND UPSTREAM RIDGING BUILDS W OF THE ROCKIES.
TROUGHING WILL BE FURTHER DEEPENED BY A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG MID/UPPER LEVEL NWLY FLOW...TRAVELING
THROUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE NRN PLAINS ACROSS THE
MID VALLEY. THE RESULTING WRN CONUS RIDGE/ERN CONUS TROUGH UPPER
PATTERN WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST LATE NEXT WEEK WHEN A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH PACIFIC NW PROMOTE THE
BREAKDOWN OF THE WRN CONUS RIDGE.

...SRN PLAINS: D3/SUN THROUGH D7/THU...
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS A DRY AIRMASS AND NWLY/WLY
FLOW PERSISTS. DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A
FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND
CNTRL/N-CNTRL TX ON D3/SUN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT AREA
WILL EXPAND ON D4/MON AS DRY...POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS COUPLE WITH
BREEZY NW WINDS. NEAR-TO-BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES MAY MITIGATE THE
THREAT SOMEWHAT BUT THE FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS STILL HIGH ENOUGH
TO DELINEATE A LARGE THREAT AREA FROM SW OK/NW TX SWD TO THE LWR RIO
GRANDE VALLEY.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY SHIFT WWD ON D5/TUE BUT DISPARITY WITHIN
THE GUIDANCE REGARDING WIND SPEEDS RESULTS IN TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY
TO DELINEATE ANY AREAS. LEE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT AND ANTICIPATED CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS CYCLOGENESIS WILL INCREASE WIND SPEEDS ON D6/WED WITH A
MORE SWLY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS EXPECTED AS WELL. THIS WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES AND LOW RH VALUES IN ADDITION TO THE
INCREASED WIND SPEEDS...SUPPORTING A FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE
SRN HIGH PLAINS ON D6/WED. AFTER D6/WED...UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING
FRONTAL TIMING AND SUBSEQUENT IMPACTS TO THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT ARE
TOO HIGH TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THE GUIDANCE.

...SRN CA: LATE D3/SUN AND D4/MON...
PROLONGED PERIOD OF OFFSHORE WINDS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST THE D5/TUE WITH GUIDANCE CURRENTLY SUGGESTING A TRANSITION TO
ONSHORE FLOW BY D6/WED. A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE GRADIENT IS
EXPECTED FROM D3/SUN NIGHT INTO D4/MON WITH THE LAX-TPH PRESSURE
GRADIENT NEAR -12 TO -13 MB. SOME UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE FUELS EXIST
BUT THE STRENGTH OF THE OFFSHORE GRADIENT AND EXTENDED WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND RESULT IN ENOUGH FIRE
POTENTIAL TO DELINEATE A RISK AREA FOR D3/SUN AND D4/MON.

..MOSIER.. 02/05/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

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