Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
000
FNUS28 KWNS 182136
FWDD38

DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0335 PM CST THU DEC 18 2014

VALID 201200Z - 261200Z

UPPER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY THIS WEEKEND AS STRONG FLOW
ALOFT MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NW AND THEN SEWD TOWARDS THE
PLAINS...CONTRIBUTING TO THE DEEPENING OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER MUCH
OF THE CONUS. CONCURRENTLY...UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ERN
PACIFIC OCEAN AND INTO THE W COAST. OVERALL PATTERN LOOKS TO BE MOST
AMPLIFIED ON D6/TUE BEFORE BEGINNING TO DEAMPLIFY AS A SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW HELPS BREAK DOWN THE UPPER RIDGE.

SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS ON
D5/MON AND D6/TUE IN THE WAKE A COLD FRONT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR THESE GUSTY WINDS TO OVERLAP WITH LOW RH AND AT LEAST MODERATELY
DRY FUELS. HOWEVER...CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATES MIN RH VALUES AT OR
ABOVE 20 PERCENT. ADDITIONALLY...FUELS WILL LIKELY STILL BE MOIST.
AS SUCH...POTENTIAL REMAINS TOO LOW TO INTRODUCE ANY AREAS.

SOME OFFSHORE FLOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SRN CA EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT
MOIST FUELS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY FIRE WEATHER THREAT.

GUIDANCE IS BEGINNING TO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG SYSTEM
AT THE END OF THE PERIOD -- D8/THU -- WITH VERY STRONG WINDS ACROSS
THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER...PREDICTABILITY IS CURRENTLY TOO
LOW...OWNING PRIMARILY TO RUN-TO-RUN DISCREPANCIES...TO INTRODUCE
ANY AREAS WITH THIS FORECAST.

..MOSIER.. 12/18/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.