Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 182148
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182148
FLZ000-GAZ000-182315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0366
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0448 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 182148Z - 182315Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THERE WILL EXIST SOME POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SVR
THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA AS CONVECTION
SPREADS TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THE
ISSUANCE OF A WW IS UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION IS ARCING NWWD OVER NORTH FLORIDA...AND
RECENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY IS EXHIBITING MORE OF A
SEMI-DISCRETE MODE NW OF A MORE CONTIGUOUS LINE REACHING DAYTONA
BEACH VICINITY. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION IN ADVANCE OF THIS ACTIVITY
HAVE TEMPERED DIURNAL BUOYANCY INCREASES. HOWEVER...A MOISTURE-RICH
BOUNDARY LAYER -- E.G. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S -- IS BOOSTING
LOW-LEVEL BUOYANCY AMIDST STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR -- E.G. 0-1-KM BULK
SHEAR AROUND 25-30 KT PER JAX VWP DATA. AS SUCH...ISOLATED LOW-LEVEL
MESOVORTICES WITH A COUPLE INSTANCES OF DMGG WIND GUSTS COULD OCCUR.
A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN PROXIMITY TO AN ENE/WSW-ORIENTED
STATIONARY BOUNDARY...WHERE LOW-LEVEL SRH IS RELATIVELY ENHANCED.
HOWEVER...THE LIMITED SPATIOTEMPORAL WINDOW OF THE SVR POTENTIAL
PRECLUDES WW ISSUANCE.

..COHEN/MEAD.. 04/18/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MLB...JAX...

LAT...LON   30108303 30388242 30818149 29968127 28938073 28408073
            28428118 29038148 29628185 29938234 29938275 30108303
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