Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 011343
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 011343
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-011915-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0049
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0743 AM CST SUN FEB 01 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN ILLINOIS...NRN INDIANA...SRN LOWER
MICHIGAN...NWRN OHIO

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 011343Z - 011915Z

SUMMARY...AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW WITH RATES TO 1 INCH PER HOUR WILL
SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY.

DISCUSSION...SFC PRESSURE FALLS OF 2-3 MB PER 2 HOURS ARE ANALYZED
ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY TO PORTIONS OF NRN IL/INDIANA...REFLECTING
THE LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME IN PLACE AHEAD OF SFC LOW PRESSURE ANALYZED
NEAR KANSAS CITY. RELATED ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IN THIS REGIME...WITH MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY
SNOW BEING REPORTED ACROSS PARTS OF NRN IL. AS THE SFC LOW DEVELOPS
EWD/ENEWD WHILE DEEPENING AND LOW-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS
CORRESPONDINGLY BECOMES ENHANCED...PRECIPITATION WILL FURTHER
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
AREA...WHERE WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY LOW/AT
THE GROUND IN SUPPORT OF SNOW PER THE 12Z ILX RAOB AND RAP FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. THE STRONGER WAA AND ASSOCIATED LLJ-ENHANCED ASCENT WILL
SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE DAY. AS SUCH...SNOWFALL RATES TO 1 INCH PER
HOUR WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD EWD AS WELL -- REACHING NWRN OHIO
AROUND/AFTER 18Z. ALSO OF NOTE...STRENGTHENING NELY WINDS TO THE NW
OF THE SFC CYCLONE WILL COMBINE WITH LINGERING LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOW ACROSS NERN IL TO ENCOURAGE BLOWING/DRIFTING OF SNOW AND VERY
LOW VISIBILITIES BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS INCLUDES THE CHICAGO AREA
AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES.

..COHEN/CARLAW.. 02/01/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN...

LAT...LON   41988761 41538935 40778913 40438808 40588673 40838506
            41118383 41828431 42068552 41988761
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