178
ACUS11 KWNS 142018
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142018
NEZ000-SDZ000-WYZ000-142215-

Mesoscale Discussion 1670
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0318 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Areas affected...eastern Wyoming...southwestern South Dakota...and
Nebraska Panhandle

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 142018Z - 142215Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity
through the afternoon and evening.  Convective trends will be
monitored for the possibility of a severe thunderstorm watch.

DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms initiated early this afternoon over the
higher terrain of Wyoming, as ascent associated with an approaching
midlevel shortwave trough overspreads the area.  Continued
initiation over the higher terrain along with new initiation farther
east along the a surface pressure trough will eventually pose a
severe-weather threat later this afternoon and evening.

Although low-level moisture is mixing out across much of the area
this afternoon (upper 40s to low 50s F 2-m Td), very steep low-level
and midlevel lapse rates (per 18Z UNR sounding) are still resulting
in over 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE.  The inverted-v thermodynamic profiles
across the region will support an isolated dry-microburst threat for
the strongest storms.  For a more organized severe threat,
deep-layer shear is marginally supportive and strongest (around 30
knots) with northward extent into northeastern Wyoming and
southwestern South Dakota.  The latest CAM guidance suggests some
potential for upscale growth of convection into clusters posing an
organized severe-wind threat.  Convective trends will be monitored
for this scenario and the possibility of a watch.

..Jirak/Mosier.. 07/14/2025

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

LAT...LON   41230533 42330551 43110588 44280656 44700581 44820501
            44900438 44900311 44810200 44510128 43750115 43160139
            42540197 41970280 41560345 41210448 41230533

MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN