Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 191951
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
251 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

AT H5 CUTOFF LOW JUST OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WHICH WILL
BE THE WEATHER MAKER FOR THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS FOR MUCH
OF THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. REMNANTS OF ODILLE IN CENTRAL TEXAS.
HURRICANE POLO SEEN IN IR JUST WEST OF PUERTO VALLARTA. RIDGING
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND WEAK TROUGH FROM HUDSON BAY LOW
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.  THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE
NEAR TERM REVOLVES AROUND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.  FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DROP TO THE SOUTHEAST
THIS EVENING...FOCUSING STORM DEVELOPMENT IN ADVANCE OF/ALONG IT/S
PATH.  THE LATEST OUTPUT FROM THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS...BUFR
SOUNDINGS AND THE SPC MESO ANALYSIS PAGE INDICATE A SUBSTANTIAL
CAPPING INVERSION PRESENT...BUT THIS CAP IS SHOWN TO ERODE
SUFFICIENTLY FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION AS FORCING INCREASES WITH THE
SURFACE FRONT.  ATTM...THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR CONVECTION WILL BE
ACROSS OUR NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ZONES AND THE CENTRAL
SANDHILLS...WHERE THE MODELS ARE INDICATING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND BULK SHEAR FOR STORMS...BUT AT THAT...CURRENT
FORECAST WOULD ONLY SUGGEST ISOLATED STORMS AT BEST.  DCAPE VALUES
ARE INDICATIVE OF A STRONG TO LOW END SEVERE WIND THREAT THIS
EVENING AS SFC TD/T SPREADS APPROACH 40F ACROSS THE HEART OF THE
SANDHILLS...BUT OTHERWISE ANY STORM SHOULD REMAIN WELL-BEHAVED.  THE
ACTIVITY IS SHOWN TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH THE
STRENGTHENING OF A LLJ WITH THE ACTIVITY TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA BEFORE DAWN.

OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE A PRODUCT OF BC GUIDANCE WITH THE CURRENT
FORECAST.  CLEARING AND LIGHT WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE PASSING
FRONT...LOWS SHOULD BE ABLE TO EASILY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL
DEGREES ESPECIALLY IN DRAINAGE PRONE AREAS SUCH AS THE PLATTE RIVER
SYSTEM.  WE CURRENTLY HAVE A RANGE OF LOWS FROM THE LOWER 50S ACROSS
OUR FAR NORTHWEST...TO NEAR 60S OVER THE FAR EAST AND SOUTHEAST.
MID 50S  SEEM FINE FOR KLBF AND KVTN.

WITH POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS PRESENT SATURDAY AND H85 T/S IN SOME
CASES 5C OR COOLER THAN TODAY...HIGHS WILL COOL SEVERAL
DEGREES...CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES A 7-10 DEGREE DROP FROM
TODAY...WHICH SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST PLACES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH
CUTOFF LOW TO THE WEST THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THIS COMING WORK WEEK. COOL FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS WESTERN
NEBRASKA SATURDAY WILL BE WELL INTO NORTHERN KANSAS NORTHEAST
COLORADO SATURDAY NIGHT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE FRONT AS
COOLER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO
WESTERN NEBRASKA. LOWS IN THE 50S WITH SOME 40S OVER NORTHWEST
BACK TOWARDS COOLER AIR. CLEAR SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE 70S WITH
LIGHT WINDS AS SURFACE HIGH IS ANCHORED OVER NEBRASKA. FRONT
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT AS CUTOFF LOW TO THE WEST MOVES
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES FROM NEW MEXICO
TO WYOMING WILL SEE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SURFACE HIGH TO THE
EAST WILL BRING STRONG STEADY SOUTH FLOW WITH GOOD MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE FRONT RANGE AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY AS
THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW MEANDERS OVER THE DAKOTAS. HIGHS IN THE 70S
NORMAL FOR THE SEASON AND LOWS IN THE 50S. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
UPPER LOW AS RIDGE BUILDS EAST TEMPERATURES RISING TO NEAR 80 AND
DRY. QPF AMOUNTS MAY HAVE TO BE BOOSTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

CONVECTION CHANCES REMAIN UNCERTAIN THIS EVENING AT BOTH KLBF AND
KVTN. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY...FELT IT WAS BEST TO USE A PERSISTENCE
/FROM PREVIOUS TAF/ FORECAST APPROACH AND RELY HEAVILY ON THE THE
NEAR TERM CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS OUTPUT. THE CAM MODELS DO
INDICATE STORMS BREACHING A STOUT CAP EARLY THIS
EVENING...POSSIBLY IMPACTING THE KLBF TERMINAL...BUT REMAINING
EAST AND SOUTH OF KVTN. CURRENTLY QUESTIONING THIS HOWEVER AS THE
BEST FOCUS OF STORMS SHOULD BE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEASTERN NEBRASKA...BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL MAINTAIN
THE PROB 30 GROUP FOR THIS EVENING AT KLBF. OTHERWISE BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WHICH SHOULD BE THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING.
THEREAFTER WINDS SHOULD BE PREDOMINATELY LIGHT AND NORTHERLY.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...POWER
SHORT TERM...JACOBS
LONG TERM...POWER
AVIATION...JACOBS





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