Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 220433
AFDLBF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1133 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 317 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Jose and Maria still to the east underneath ridge. Deep trough
extends from upper Hudson Bay through central Canada into Northern
California.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 844 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Red Flag Warning allowed to expire. Critical fire weather
conditions no longer expected over southwest NEB as temperatures
cool resulting in increasing relative humidity combined with winds
lessening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Transition continues with the upper pattern and deep trough
through the western Conus. Gulf has opened and has begun to return
moisture across the southern into central plains today with main
moisture stream across Missouri into the Great Lakes. Very dry air
over the southwest this afternoon with rhs dipping to around 10
percent. See fire weather discussion below. Low level jet will
increase tonight with strong southerly flow beginning this
evening. Moisture will begin to advect north into the area across
the central plains. Much warmer over night lows forecast with lows
ranging from 70 at Oneill to 45 at Gordon to 55 at Imperial.
Record highs expected tomorrow ahead of the front with low 90s
from Imperial through North Platte to Oneill. Upper jet and Low
level jet ahead of the system will bring increased chances of
thunderstorms through the afternoon into early evening from Curtis
to Broken Bow to Oneill. Better chances severe over North central
with jet dynamics and deeper moisture.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

As upper trough approaches from the west and increased moisture
advection into central plains through the weekend a prolonged
period of moderate to heavy rain through southwest into North
central Nebraska expected. PWATS around 2 standard deviations
above normals. Highs Saturday in the 60s and 70s cooling into the
50s Monday. Upper trough moves across and out of the forecast
area through Tuesday with drying and warming conditions through
mid week. By Thursday highs back in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1105 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Clear skies continue across western and north central NEB. Latest
regional VWP plot shows the development well of a southerly low-
level jet across KS into NE. VWP 500 m AGL (~1640 ft AGL) plot
near the bottom of the hour at KLNX, KGLD, and KUEX were 47 kts,
54 kts, and 47 kts, respectively. LLWS conditions expected to
continue overnight and will affect the KLBF and KVTN terminals.
Upper height of the wind shear layer forecast about 1500 ft with
winds at the top of layer peaking 55 kts, strongest at the KLBF
terminal and east. LLWS conditions expected to end in the early
morning.

Tomorrow, another breezy day with winds out of the south. However,
lighter winds will be present across the eastern Panhandle and
northwest NEB behind a front. Slight chances for thunderstorms
tomorrow afternoon, however, higher chances/greater confidence
exists for thunderstorms in the evening hours. Mostly-partly sunny
tomorrow followed by increasing clouds late afternoon to evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 317 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Took awhile but red flag conditions met over the southwest this
afternoon will continue Red Flag warning. Conditions favorable
again Friday afternoon over southwest Nebraska again but Winds are
questionable.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 317 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Have reduced flows coming out of McConaughy today. High flows
continue above McConaughy and RVS continued at Lewellen.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ET
SYNOPSIS...Power
SHORT TERM...Power
LONG TERM...Power
AVIATION...ET
FIRE WEATHER...Power
HYDROLOGY...Power


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