Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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FXUS63 KLBF 231143

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
543 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 303 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

Will continue with quiet conditions for the near term. A strong
upper level ridge will remain in place across the western US. This
will keep north central Nebraska dry and mild through Thursday
night. Warm air advection into the region will allow 850 mb
temperatures to rise into the 12 to 17 C range by Thursday evening.
This will result in surface high temperatures to rise into the upper
60s to low 70s for most locations.

For Thursday night, warm air advection continues across the central
US keeping overnight temperatures mild. Expect low temperatures to
only drop into the low 40s, nearly 20 degrees above normal for this
time of year. Westerly winds begin to increase by early Friday
morning as the next frontal system approaches the region. Expect
wind gusts near 25 mph across the northern forecast area by 7am

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 303 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

The dry northwest flow pattern to continue across west central
Nebraska into early next week, but then briefly turn southwesterly
as a trough digs across the west.  The trough is shown to possibly
bring light qpf to northern and western portions of the CWA late
Monday or early Tuesday, but overall, the pattern looks dry.
Temperatures through the extended look to remain largely above
average and in some cases well above average.

The latest 00Z solutions still indicate the passage of a
clipper/cold front across the plains on Friday.  The latest guidance
does indicate weak CAA behind the front with temperatures falling
some 5-10 degrees, but the main issue with the front will be the
wind potential.  H85 winds late morning are advertised by the
various models to reach 40-50kts, mixing and the approaching surface
high will result in wind gusts in excess of 30 mph across much of
the forecast area. The system is moisture starved, so despite some
lift and possible high clouds, no precipitation is expected.  We
will continue to monitor the grassland range fire risk Friday.  The
latest solutions still indicate non-critical RH with slightly lesser
wind speeds. Also, we`re looking at about 9:50 of low angle sunlight
and when considering the potential of mid or high clouds with the
front, any substantial shading of the fuels will shut down large
fire spread potential, even if 30 mph winds come to fruition.  Will
continue to monitor, but no fire headlines are planned at this time.

In post frontal conditions, temperatures on Saturday will be the
coolest through at least Monday, but at that still above average.
Sunday and Monday temperatures rebound as an upper ridge builds east
toward the plains and a lee trough develops in advance of the next
cold front.  West to southwest flow will promote highs in the upper
60s to lower 70s both days.  The well above average highs will
combine with a relatively dry airmass to increase the threat of
large range fire spread on Monday.  Depending on your model of
choice and the timing of the cold front, we may see Red Flag Warning
conditions across our western fire zones Monday afternoon.  Will
monitor closely as the models are showing a fairly significant cross
mountain gradient over northern CO/Southern WY.  In these cases
mixing is usually under-represented by the models and the strength
of the downsloping flow is as well.

Models are advertising the passage of the front and a mid level
trough mid to late afternoon Monday.  Gusty winds are anticipated
late Monday afternoon across much of the forecast area.  The models
are all over the place on how the trough will play out, but one
common theme is that there seems to be just enough moisture present
for at least a slight chance mention of light QPF late Monday into
early Tuesday across our northwest.  Otherwise temperatures trend
slightly cooler mid-week but appear to warm once again by Thursday
as the western ridge re-amplifies.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 542 AM CST Thu Nov 23 2017

An upper level ridge will remain over the western US through the
next day. Aviation conditions will remain quiet through Thursday
night with light winds and mostly clear skies. Westerly winds will
start to increase across northern Nebraska late Thursday night as a
front drops south across the central Plains. Expect wind gusts up to
20 knots at KVTN by 10Z to 12Z Friday.




LONG TERM...Jacobs
AVIATION...Kulik is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.