Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS North Platte, NE

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000
FXUS63 KLBF 202138
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
338 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST WILL GIVE CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEBRASKA
A SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY WIND OVERNIGHT...DECIDED TO BUMP LOW
TEMPERATURES UP AS CURRENT THINKING IS WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH
CLOUD COVERAGE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO STAY WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT. HOWEVER LEFT TEMPERATURES COOLER AROUND THE RIVER VALLEYS.
LEFT THE MENTION OF FOG AND FREEZING FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST AS 12Z
MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE NOT SUGGESTING FOG FORMATION.

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
SHOULD HELP TO LIFT TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S ACROSS SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA ALONG WITH WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT AROUND 6 TO 8 DEGREES
CELSIUS MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

MID RANGE PERIODS (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...

MILD TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH. A LEESIDE
SURFACE TROUGH TO DEEPEN SATURDAY AS H85 TEMPERATURES WARM TO AROUND
10C ACROSS THE AREA. A PREVAILING SOUTHWEST WIND WILL PROVIDE FOR
HIGHS TO REACH OR EXCEED 50 DEGREE ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE FAR
NORTHEAST. IN FACT...HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S EXPECTED AT IMPERIAL
WITH MID 50S INTO THEDFORD AND BROKEN BOW. A COLD FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT TO BRING A COOLDOWN FOR SUNDAY. ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST HIGHS FROM NEAR 40 NW TO NEAR 50 FAR SOUTH.

EXTENDED PERIODS (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...

A CLOSED UPPER LOW SUNDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
INTO MINNESOTA WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTRL AND NRN
PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR LIGHT SNOW TO NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THIS WILL ALSO KEEP WESTERN NEBRASKA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FOR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY (THANKSGIVING DAY)...LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE
REGARDING THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF. THE GFS BUILDS IN AN EVEN
STRONGER AND MORE AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE INTO THE WESTERN U.S. WHILE
THE 00Z ECMWF BRINGS A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH INTO THE
PACIFIC NW AND GREAT BASIN REGION. FOR EXAMPLE...AT 00Z THU...THE
HEIGHT DIFFERENCE IS 360 METERS FROM MONTANA INTO NRN CALIF. BY 00Z
FRI...A SIMILAR 360 METER DIFFERENCE FROM SRN NEVADA INTO THE
DAKOTAS. THIS RESULTS IN LARGE H85 TEMP DIFFERENCES THANKSGIVING DAY
IN WRN NEBR RANGING FROM AOA 12C ACCORDING TO 12Z GFS IN WESTERN
HALF OF FA TO AROUND -16C FROM 00Z ECMWF. THUS HIGHS COULD
POTENTIALLY RANGE FROM THE TEENS TO MID 20S (ECMWF AND ECMWF MOS
GUIDANCE) OR THE LOW TO MID 50S (GFS AND MEX MOS GUIDANCE). THE 12Z
CANADIAN GEM THROUGH 144 HRS FALL CLOSER IN LINE TO THE ECMWF. THE
LATEST 12Z ECMWF ALSO REMAINS SIMILAR TO 00Z RUN. FAVORING THE
COLDER ECMWF...FORECAST HIGHS BY THANKSGIVING DAY TO COOL TO THE
MID 20S NORTH CENTRAL TO MID 30S FAR SOUTHWEST. ALSO INTRODUCED
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...LINGERING INTO THANKSGIVING DAY. WILL NEED TO CLOSELY
MONITOR MODEL TRENDS REGARDING SNOWFALL CHANCES CONCERNING
THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY TRAVEL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1154 CST THU NOV 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH CLEAR SKIES FOR
MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT CLOUDS WILL BECOME OVERCAST
HOWEVER CURRENT THINKING IS THAT VFR CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE
PRESENT AS FOG DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE TOMORROW MORNING.
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KTS.


&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GOMEZ
LONG TERM...ROBERG
AVIATION...GOMEZ





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