Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 250526 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1226 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...


UPDATE ISSUED AT 1039 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

SNOW CONTINUES OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2. THE LATEST NAM/HRRR AGREE ON DIMINISHING THE
SNOW AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 05Z IN THE KDLH AREA...AND LATEST
RADAR SUPPORTS THAT. WE DO NOT PLAN ON EXTENDING THE ADVISORY FOR
THE DULUTH AREA AND IF RADAR TRENDS HOLD...WE MAY DROP FOR
SOUTHERN ITASCA COUNTY AS WELL. THE REST OF THE HEADLINES LOOK
GOOD AND WE DO NOT PLAN ANY CHANGES.

WARMER AIR WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT AS THE
925MB LOW TRACK THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THESE WARMER TEMPS AND
WARMER CLOUD TOPS DUE TO TOP DOWN DRYING OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN
ZONES SHOULD KEEP ANY PRECIP AS RAIN/DRIZZLE THERE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH IT
HEAVY IN SPOTS. WE UPGRADED COASTAL LAKE COUNTY TO WARNING. AN
OBSERVER NEAR FINLAND CALLED WITH 4.5 INCHES OF SNOW SO FAR...AND
IT WAS COMING DOWN AT AN INCH PER HOUR. IT SHOULD SNOW THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AT VARYING INTENSITY.

FEW OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

AT 330 AM A WIDE VARIETY OF WEATHER CONDITIONS WAS FOUND ACROSS
THE NORTHLAND. MORE THAN 2 INCHES OF SNOW HAD FALLEN AT THE DULUTH
AIRPORT AS WELL AS AT WOLF RIDGE ENVIRONMENTAL LEARNING CENTER
NEAR FINLAND MINNESOTA. WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE AMOUNTS INCREASE
FAIRLY RAPIDLY ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD...WITH PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING IN THE SOUTH. SOME RAIN WAS MIXED IN WITH THE SNOW OR
EVEN FALLING AS ALL SNOW AT SOME INLAND LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES
WERE GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S.

WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALL FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...AS PRECIPITATION CHANGES TO SNOW FOR MANY AREAS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE NORTHERN 2/3 OF THE CWA. STILL LOOKING LIKE A GOOD FOOT OF
SNOW...GIVE OR TAKE...FOR THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD INCLUDING THE
GUNFLINT TRAIL. IN THE DULUTH AREA WE ARE GENERALLY LOOKING FOR 3
TO 5 INCHES...ESPECIALLY INLAND FROM THE LAKE AND IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO BE HIGHLY VARIABLE DUE TO THE MIX
OF PRECIPITATION AND CHANGE OF PTYPE.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER TONIGHT AND ON FRIDAY...BUT THE TIP
OF THE ARROWHEAD WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW
THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD BE WARMER ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT THU APR 24 2014

THE CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT.  AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN
CANADA WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT.  SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH BELOW TEMPS.  A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ON
SUNDAY AND WILL MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH SD AND IOWA THROUGH TUESDAY.
PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLE WITH TEMPS NEAR THE
FREEZING MARK SUNDAY NIGHT.  THE THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE ON MONDAY.  THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE SOUTH
AS THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH IOWA AND ILLINOIS.
THE LOW CENTER DRIFTS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY LATE WEEK
WHICH WILL KEEP CLOUDS ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS IN NW WI.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2014

THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIP WILL MOVE NORTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS
NEAR THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD EXCEPT AT KINL. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
WILL BE LEFT BEHIND DEPARTING SFC/MID LVL TROUGHS. EXPECT LINGERING
LOW STRATUS AND LOCAL DZ/BR INTO EARLY MORNING. A PERIOD OF LOCALLY
DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED AT KBRD AS WINDS REMAIN CALM NEXT FEW HOURS
BEFORE THE POST FRONTAL WINDS INCREASE. A GRADUAL LIFTING OF
CEILINGS WILL OCCUR IN THE MORNING AS BDRY LAYER BEGINS WARMING.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY OCCUR AT NRN TERMINALS UNDERNEATH UPPER
TROF AXIS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  28  40  27  39 /  20  10  10  30
INL  27  46  26  47 /  10  10  10  20
BRD  31  49  35  47 /  10  10  30  50
HYR  29  49  32  47 /  10  10  30  40
ASX  28  41  27  44 /  20  10  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ010-
     011-018-019.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR MNZ012-020-021.

WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LSZ121-142>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ140-141.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...CANNON






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