Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 170139 CCA

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Duluth MN
739 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

Issued at 733 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

Precipitation type and amounts will be the challenge tonight.
Low pressure was centered well south in Missouri this evening but
precipitation extended well north and was moving toward southern
Price county. A mix of sleet and freezing rain will be possible in
southern Price county after 9pm with it moving north and west late
evening/early morning into parts of Sawyer and southern Iron
counties as well. The latest HRRR/RAP soundings suggest the
precipitation will switch over to snow at least in southern Price
county around or shortly after midnight. If the soundings are
correct, we would expect only light icing and perhaps snow/sleet
accumulation to 2 inches. We will monitor radar/observations
through the evening and may possibly need an advisory for Price
county and possibly Sawyer. The short term models show the
precipitation lifting a bit further north and pivoting as the low
moves east. It will be a close call on whether significant
icing/snow occurs in our far southeast counties to warrant an


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 348 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

At 345 PM, skies were mostly sunny across the Northland. The
exception was in the far south, which was seeing an increase in
high clouds from the developing low pressure system to the south.
High temperatures today reached well into the 30s across the
Northland, and there were even a few locations that saw readings
in the lower 40s.

The main forecast focus for tonight and Tuesday will be the chance
of precipitation across portions of northwest Wisconsin, and cloud
trends, and temperatures elsewhere. Another concern is the
potential for fog and stratus overnight. Have added the mention of
fog across the entire area tonight, as we should see light winds,
and moisture added to the boundary layer from melting snow. Think
conditions across much of the area will be similar to last night,
where we saw some stubborn and locally dense fog.

In terms of precipitation, the models continued to solidify on a
solution, with the northern extent of precipitation generally
confined to Sawyer, Price and Iron county, especially southern
portions of those counties. The surface low will continue it`s
northeastward trek through the central Great Lakes, while the
upper level shortwave trough swings across Minnesota and
Wisconsin. The result should be a mixture of wintry precipitation
in the southeast portion of the CWA.

Temperatures on Tuesday could be a bit tricky, as we may see some
low clouds and fog linger throughout the day in some areas.
Otherwise we should see some sunshine with highs ranging from the
upper 20s to mid 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 348 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

At the beginning of this extended period the upper midwest will be
covered by an upper level ridge while a strong cutoff low will be
over the southern plains. This upper ridge will continue to bring
mild Pacific air into the region so no Arctic air is in sight. The
upper ridge will keep hold of our weather until late in the week
when the upper low gets ejected northward as a strong shortwave
makes landfall onto the west coast. It`s the closed low across the
southern U. S. that will take our attention for late in the week
and into early next week. Friday night, the nearly stacked low
will be slowly rotating across the southern areas of the midwest.
Strong warm air advection with isentropic lift will spread
precipitation northward and into southern areas of the forecast
area Friday night. This initial surface low will quickly move east
across the Ohio Valley. But, a series of surface lows will develop
and take aim at the Upper Midwest as the upper level low rotates
across the Mid Valley area. Current models indicate most of the
precipitation will be south of the Northland as the surface low
remains south. However, with such a strong system nearby,
precipitation is possible this far north, especially with track
and strength possibly changing through the week. Precipitation
types will definitely be in question. There will be lots of warm
air through the lower layers, but there will be times when there
will be ice aloft. So you will see a mish mash of precipitation
types through the next Monday.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 550 PM CST Mon Jan 16 2017

Surface low pressure was centered in northwest Missouri this
evening and is forecast to move over southern Lake Michigan by
12Z Tuesday, continuing east through the day. The impacts from
this system will remain south of most of the TAFs. Mixed snow,
sleet, or freezing rain may make it as far north as Winter,
Phillips, Ogema and Prentice.

Fog will again be possible tonight and it may be dense in spots.
Conditions may drop to IFR or lower into Tuesday morning. After
the fog lifts, VFR conditions will occur.


DLH  13  30  19  35 /   0   0   0   0
INL   2  28  19  35 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  13  28  15  36 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  17  35  18  36 /  10  10   0   0
ASX  17  34  21  38 /  10   0   0   0




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