Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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000
FXUS63 KGRB 281328 CCA
AFDGRB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
551 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

UPDATED AVIATION PORTION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE

.SHORT TERM...TODAY...TONIGHT...AND MONDAY
ISSUED AT 410 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

CLOUDS AND THEIR EFFECT ON TEMPERATURES ARE THE MAIN CHALLENGE
FOR THIS PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. JET ENERGY PASSING NORTH OF
WISCONSIN COUPLED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SOME
BROKEN CLOUDS TODAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE
IN THE SNOW BELTS WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION. COLD ADVECTION
AND THE CLOUDS WILL MAKE FOR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
FIRST TIME IN A LONG WHILE.

SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP QUICKLY. THE EXTENT OF CLEARING WILL DETERMINE WHETHER LOWS
FALL BELOW ZERO IN AREAS WITH SNOW COVER. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN THE SNOW BELTS WITH NO ACCUMULATION.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL PRODUCE SOME MID CLOUDS AS IT MOVES THROUGH
MONDAY ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT THAT WILL BRING IN
EVEN COLDER AIR.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
ISSUED AT 410 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

THE BIG STORY WILL BE THE ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT WILL BE FIRMLY IN
PLACE INTO THE NEW YEAR AS WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS...AND CLOSED 500MB
LOW MEANDERS ACROSS EASTERN CANADA. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
WINDS ARE A LITTLE MORE NORTHWESTERLY THAN LAST NIGHT...THUS THE
SNOWBELT REGION COULD PICK UP AN INCH OR TWO DURING THIS PERIOD.
DRIER AIR WORKING INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN SHOULD SHUT OFF THE SNOW
SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT. THE BIG STORY MONDAY NIGHT INTO NEW
YEARS DAY WILL BE THE ARCTIC AIR. THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD AND
WINDS...WIND CHILLS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE DOWN
TO AROUND 20 BELOW ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WIND CHILLS
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL BE DOWN TO 20 BELOW TO 30
BELOW NORTH AND WEST OF THE FOX VALLEY...AND APPROACHING 20 BELOW
ACROSS THE FOX VALLEY AND LAKESHORE REGION. DID ADD A BLURB ABOUT
THE WIND CHILLS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

UPPER/SURFACE TROUGHS SWING ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY. ADDED
LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THIS
FEATURE. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO BIGGER STORM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
IF 00Z GFS IS CORRECT...WINTER STORM WARNINGS WOULD BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. ECMWF HAS COME IN MORE BULLISH
WITH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...THUS EXPECT LATER SHIFTS TO INCREASE
CHANCES FOR SNOW. DID RAISE THEM SLIGHTLY PER COORDINATION
EFFORTS WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. ARCTIC AIR WILL FOLLOW THIS
STORM FOR LATE NEXT WEEKEND INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE
ISSUED AT 551 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

SCATTERED MVFR CEILINGS AND SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING IN CENTRAL AND NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN. OTHERWISE VFR WEATHER
EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....RDM
LONG TERM......ECKBERG
AVIATION.......RDM









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