Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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000
FXUS64 KBRO 030824
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
324 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...CURRENTLY 06Z OBSERVATIONS SHOW
A 10 TO 12 DEGREE TEMPERATURE DROP ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS OF DEEP
SOUTH TX. DEW POINTS HAVE DROP AS WELL 15 TO 20 DEGREES(50 TO 59 DEG)
ACROSS THE REGION LIMITING ANY ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN A DECENT
OVERCAST CLOUD DECK ACROSS THE REGION WHILE AT THE SURFACE CAA WILL
CONTINUE TO LOWER TEMPS 2 TO 3 DEG MORE BY SUNRISE. THIS ZONAL FLOW
WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS UNTIL THE NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER THE N CENTRAL PLAINS DIGS SOUTHEAST AND REINFORCES NORTHERLY
FLOW ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY. DUE TO ZONAL FLOW ALOFT EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE IN THE OVC CLOUD DECK THIS MORNING BUT GRADUALLY BECOMES
PARTLY CLOUDY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THICKNESS HEIGHTS LOWER WITH 850MB
TEMPS (12 TO 15DEG) IN ADDITION TO THE CLOUD DECK WILL EXPECT TEMPS
TO WARM UP INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE ARE TODAY.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS S
CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SENDING A REINFORCING OF HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE CWA. NORTHERLY WIND WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING REMAINING LIGHT BUT WITH DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS
CONTINUING ONE MORE NIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE LOW TO
MID 60S AND UPPER 50S OVER THE N RANCHLANDS. WEDNESDAY RIDGE BUILDS
WITH MUCH DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. DEW POINTS LOWER INTO THE
LOW 40S AND 50S NEAR THE COAST WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES TO REACH THE
LOWER 20S OUT WEST AND 30 PERCENT NEAR THE COAST. NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
CLEAR SKIES PROVIDING MORE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS
AS A RESULT WILL RETURN TO THE SUMMER WARM TEMPS RANGING FROM NEAR
90S OUT WEST AND MID TO UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...A CLOSED 500 MB LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND A 500 MB RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA...WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EAST IN TANDEM FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
DRY MID-LEVEL NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE BRO CWFA FORMED
BY THIS SYNOPTIC SET-UP...COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED NEARBY...AND A RELATIVE LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WILL PRODUCE DRY WEATHER FOR DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED TIME
PERIOD. AS THE 500 MB RIDGE DAMPENS AND MOVES INTO THE GULF COAST
AREA AND ANOTHER CLOSED 500 MB LOW MOVES INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MARKEDLY OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST. WHILE THIS PATTERN WILL BRING INCREASED CLOUDINESS
...IT WILL FAIL TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION...THUS THE DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE BRO CWFA FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND TO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. NO SIGNIFICANT EXTREMES ARE ANTICIPATED TEMPERATURE-
WISE DURING THE ENTIRE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD...WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS RUNNING AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS.
&&

.MARINE...NOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY..NORTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS. THE WINDS
AND SEAS WILL LOWER TODAY AND REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. CLOUD DECK AND PLEASANT TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP
TODAY WITH OVERCAST SKIES GRADUALLY BREAKING THIS AFTERNOON. INTO
WED REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES THROUGH EARLY IN THE MORNING
KEEPING A NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER TX GULF WATERS. RIDGE
WILL BUILD BRINGING IN DRY AIR CLEARING SKIES AND WARMING TEMPS
BACK INTO THE 80S. NO CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATING
FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL PRODUCE VERY
FAVORABLE MARINE CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND LOW TO MODERATE SEAS FORECAST.
MORE ADVERSE WINDS AND SEAS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT...AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE MARINE FORECAST PERIOD...AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO NORTHERN MEXICO.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  78  69  83  67 /  10  10   0   0
BROWNSVILLE          81  67  85  65 /  10  10   0   0
HARLINGEN            82  65  86  63 /  10  10   0   0
MCALLEN              83  67  90  64 /  10  10   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY      83  63  90  63 /  10  10   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   74  72  81  71 /  10  10   0   0
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

SHORT TERM...TORRES-67
LONG TERM...TOMASELLI-66



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