Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Brownsville, TX

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FXUS64 KBRO 262329 AAA
AFDBRO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
629 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR LATEST AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE REGION IN THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS...WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS IN ITS WAKE. CIGS THAT HAD
LOWERED TO AROUND 1500 HAVE RETURNED TO AROUND 4000 BUT REMAIN
OVC. GRADUAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS DRIER AIR MOVES
INTO THE REGION...WHILE WINDS RELAX TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TOMORROW...WITH ONLY SCT CIGS ABOVE 4000
AND WINDS GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE NE AROUND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 303 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015/

SHORT TERM.../NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...THE COMBINATION OF THE
UPPER TROUGH WITH GOOD SPEED DIVERGENCE AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AS
THE TROUGH MOVES EAST IS PROVIDING A FAVORABLE MID LEVEL ASCENT
FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND PRODUCE HAIL. A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT DRY AIR
MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA LIMITING ANY
ADDITIONAL STRONG DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME...ANY ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN BUT WILL MOVE
QUICKLY SOUTH AND OUT OF THE AREA. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
BETWEEN A TENTH AND A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

FOR TONIGHT DRY AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY
CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL DOWN TO THE MID TO
LOW 50S ACROSS THE CWA. DUE TO CLEAR SKIES CONDITIONS PREVAIL
FRIDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE UPPER 70S AND NEAR 80S
OVER THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE
DAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S.

LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO MAKE FOR A NEAR PERFECT WEEKEND AND
BEGINNING OF THE NEW WORK WEEK. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT PROVIDING
FAIR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS EACH AFTERNOON.
WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST AND SOMEWHAT DEEPENS OVER
SOUTH TEXAS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE IT PASSES BY WEDNESDAY
WITH A QUIET ZONAL FLOW TAKING OVER AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS UNDERWAY SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH MOISTURE
BEGINNING TO POOL IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK BOUNDARY OVER NORTH TEXAS.
RAIN CHANCE CONTINUE IN THE FORECAST TUE AND TUESDAY EVENING WITH
REMAINING ON THE LOW SIDE OF POP CHANCES. FORECAST CONTINUES WITH
A LOW TO MODEST CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE MIDDLE OF WEEK.
TEMPERATURES SPRING LIKE WITH MILD TO WARM DAY AND MILD TO MUGGY
NIGHTS AS THOSE EW POINTS CLIMB BACK INTO THE UPPER 60S AS THE
RAIN CHANCES INCREASE.

MARINE...NOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON BUILDING SEAS 7 TO 8 FEET AS
THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE GULF WATERS. THERE IS A SCA IN EFFECT
AND IT HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY AS THE GRADIENT
REMAINS STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE
WINDS RELAX ALLOWING SEAS TO RETURN TO 2 TO 3 FEET FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...SOUTHEAST WINDS RETURN SATURDAY WITH A
LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW SETTING UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK. STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
ANTICIPATED TUESDAY.

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK UNTIL 2 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR TXZ251-256-257.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR GMZ130-132-135-
     150-155-170-175.

&&

$$

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