Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 250616
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
1216 AM CST Sun Feb 25 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

Hazardous Weather: None.

Aloft: RAP analyses and 12Z upr-air data show a longwave trof was
over the Wrn USA with a couple shortwave trofs embedded. The 1st
was over the Nrn/Cntrl Plns and was responsible for the
-SN/-FZDZ today. The 2nd was diving down the backside of the trof
over the Pac NW. The initial trof will exit to the E this eve
while the upstream trof conts SE. This trof will cross the rgn
tomorrow with heights temporarily building over the Wrn USA in its
wake.

Surface: The main polar front extended from TX to the OH Vly with
low pres over MO. A weak sfc trof was progressing across Neb/KS
and it will become absorbed into the MO low this eve. Weak high
pres over the Srn Plns will build in tonight. That high will head
into the SE USA tomorrow but still extend back into the Cntrl
Plns.

This ended up being a minor winter event...nothing like it look
for svrl days earlier this week. Quite a dud if you`re a fan of
snow. At any rate...the last few bands of -SN have shifted to
roughly Hwy 281 and will cont to head E the next 1-3 hrs. Plan to
let the advisory expire at 22Z.

Tonight: m/clear in the eve but some mid-high clds will invade
from the W after midnight preceding the approaching trof. So skies
will turn p/cldy. Lows will be in the teens.

Clearing this eve in the presence of high low-lvl moisture
suggests fog could be a problem...but good mixing is occurring in
the sunshine to the W. Dwpts are tanking as a result and this dry
air is fcst to advect in here. That should mitigate the fog threat
tonight into Sun AM.

Sun: P/cldy thru midday then gradually decreasing clds from the
NW. Temps will rebound back to normal. The warmest day we`ve seen
since last Sun.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

Potentially Hazardous Weather: Critical fire wx Mon. See fire wx
section below.

Aloft: The Wrn trof will reload Sun night into Mon with the last
2 EC/GFS/GEM runs breaking off a low over Srn CA Tue. This will
put the CWA in WSW flow. Current indications are that the Desert
SW low will open up and swing thru KS/OK Wed. This time frame
needs to be watched. The models are fcstg cyclogenesis but further
downstream than usual. That seems odd. Even weakening trofs
coming out of the SW needs to be watched. If lee cyclogenesis is
induced further W ...that is how we get our biggest snowstorms
here. Suggest not writing this off just because the models don`t
have it. A ridge should develop over the Plns Thu-Fri as the Wrn
trof reloads again and it could eject a potent trof across the CWA
next weekend.

Surface: A weak cool front will move thru Tue with weak high pres
building in from the N Tue-Wed. Cyclogenesis is fcst SE of the
CWA along the front Wed. This low will head into the GtLakes Thu
with high pres overhead. That high will gradually shift E of the
rgn Fri-Sat with return flow developing.

Temps: Much warmer than normal Mon and highs were raised above
the fcst init...especially over N-cntrl KS. Then temps will
average near or warmer than normal thru next Sat. One or two of
those days could also be much warmer than normal.

Precip: Depending on the eventual track of the low to the
SE...some precip could fall here Tue night into Wed as that low
evolves. Other than that it`s looking dry all other periods.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 06Z Sunday)
Issued at 1158 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

This will be a very quiet aviation period with VFR conditions
expected. The wind will remain out of the west and be the
strongest during the afternoon hours.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 245 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

Watch issued for all of N-cntrl KS and Furnas/Harlan counties in
S-cntrl Neb. Very warm day with mixing to between 4500-5500 ft.
That will mix dry air and winds to the ground so that RH will drop
below 20% and S winds will be sustained 20-25 mph with gusts to 35
mph. Those are Red Flag conds. So coordinated with GLD/DDC to
issue a watch.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
     for NEZ082-083.

KS...Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening
     for KSZ005>007-017>019.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kelley
LONG TERM...Kelley
AVIATION...Wesely
FIRE WEATHER...Kelley


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