Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 262339
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
639 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Abbreviated AFD due to early start to severe weather this afternoon.
Severe storms have begun in full force across the area initial line
going up near the radar and extending east. This is well north of
the main surface boundary that extends from southwest KS to
southeast NE. Storms have also popped along the boundary to our
south in KS.

All ingredients in place with plenty of moisture as low 70 dewpoints
have advected as far north as CNK. Decent forcing with upper wave
now centered over four corners region and slowly churning east.
Current instability ranges from ml-CAPE values of near 4000 J/KG in
the southern CWA to 1000 in the far north.  Mid level lapse rates
impressive south of highway 30 ranging from 8-9 deg C.  Effective
bulk shear values of 40kt south CWA to 60 kt north.  Only thing
lacking at present are 0-1 km bulk shear values which are 10 kt or
less. Still, latest Sig Tor parameter values now in the 3-4 range
in the Tor Watch area so will need close monitoring. Large hail
parameters off the chart with the southern half of the CWA
currently exceeding 30, while northern CWA exceeding 14.

What all of that means is we are looking at a good setup for severe
thunderstorms with the main threat at present being very large to
giant size hail. Tornadoes also possible especially near and
along the boundary. Expect activity to continue into the evening
and overnight as more thunderstorms move in from the southwest.

Precipitation chances continue into Friday and while severe threat
won`t be as high as it is today, it will still be possible until
main upper wave gets east of us.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Unsettled weather continues in the long term although we
do see a pattern change. Deep upper southwest U.S. low finally moves
to the east and by 00Z Saturday it should be near northwest KS, and
then move over our CWA on Sat as it opens into a wave. By 00Z Sunday
the upper trough axis should be to our east near the MO River
Valley. So Sat night and early Sun may not be as active although
chances return Sun night as a surface boundary once again hangs up
in the central Plains.

Another upper low is progged to move into the Pacific NW region
later on Sunday which should preclude any ridging over the Plains.
The earlier runs of the EC and GFS differed on the timing but they
do both move this system east across southern Canada. The latest run
of the GFS seems to be coming more into line with the EC. Our
thunderstorm chances should continue until that wave axis gets east
of our CWA. This could be as early as Wed but will just have to see
how system progresses.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Thu May 26 2016

Expect tstm chances to continue off and on through the TAF period.
First round of storms have pushed east but more to follow as
activity moves in from the southwest overnight as main upper low
moves towards us from the four corners region. Also expect
ceilings to lower to IFR later tonight and remain until mid
morning.

&&

.GID Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NE...None.
KS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ewald
LONG TERM...Ewald
AVIATION...Ewald



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