Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 310756
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
256 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

THE HALLOWEEN FORECAST IS STILL LOOKING DRY AND COLD.  A COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SWEPT SOUTH THURSDAY EVENING...AND COLDER AIR WAS
FILTERING SOUTH ONTO THE PLAINS WHILE A 1036MB SURFACE BUILT SOUTH
BEHIND THE FRONT. A NARROW BAND OF LOW CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHERN
AND EASTERN NEB/KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY TO THE WEST
AND SOUTH DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS...AND MOST OF THIS WILL OCCUR
PRIOR TO DAYBREAK WITH GOOD INSOLATION EXPECTED THRU THE DAYTIME
HOURS.

TEMPS WILL BE ON THE COLD SIDE FOR THE LAST DAY OF OCTOBER.  H85
TEMPS AVERAGE NEAR 0C OR JUST ABOVE TODAY AND WITH THE SURFACE
RIDGE IN PLACE AND LITTLE MIXING...WE ARE LOOKING FOR HIGHS TO
AVERAGE IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. AFTER SUNSET...TRICK OR TREATERS
WILL NEED TO BUNDLE UP AS READINGS QUICKLY DROP INTO 30S. THE
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST TONIGHT WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
SETTING UP BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE AIRMASS WILL BE SLOW TO
MODERATE AND LOW TEMPS TONIGHT WILL AVERAGE IN THE LOW/MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FAIRLY TIGHT ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT THE WINDS AT 850MB
ARE 45 TO 55 KTS ACROSS THE AREA. EXPECT THE WINDS TO BE THE
STRONGEST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH.
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT AS THE
INVERSION INCREASES THE GUSTS WILL DIMINISH SOME. THERE IS WARM
ADVECTION AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A WARMING
TREND FROM THE COLD TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A
LITTLE WARMER EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA AND A
SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT. THE SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND EVEN INTO MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE FINALLY
MOVING OUT OF THE AREA.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AFTER THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA A RIDGE BUILDS IN THE WESTERN CONUS AND DRIFTS TO THE EAST.
MODELS HAVE A FEW DIFFERENCES IN THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WITH
THE ECMWF HAVING AN UPPER LOW UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE THE GFS HAS IT MUCH FURTHER SOUTH.
EXPECTATIONS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES...OR MAYBE JUST A
LITTLE ABOVE AND DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

A NARROW BAND OF MVFR CLOUD COVER WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND WEST DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH THE BAND NARROW AND THE CLOUDS BEGINNING
TO BREAK HAVE KEPT CLOUDS SCATTERED BUT A COUPLE HOUR PERIOD OF
BROKEN MVFR CIGS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
ARE FORECAST AFTER DAYBREAK. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN STEADY
DURING THE NIGHT BUT WILL SUBSIDE AND SHIFT EASTERLY FRIDAY AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES ONTO THE PLAINS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAY
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...FAY



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