Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Green Bay, WI

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FXUS63 KGRB 222134
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
334 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Tuesday
Issued at 334 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

Forecast concerns revolve around ongoing headlines and
precipitation types and amounts this evening and overnight.

Forecast was nearly on track as far as precipitation types today
and warning/advisory headlines will continue as planned. Current
(3PM) radar and surface obs showed moderate to heavy snow across
far northern Wisconsin pushing north. There is another band of
heavier precipitation just getting to the southern forecast area
and is on track to move through during the late afternoon and
early evening, which will impact the evening commute. Boundary
layer temperature are a concern as this band moves through the
Fox Valley and lake shore counties. Many surface temperatures are
within a degree or two of freezing. Time sections show enough
saturation and lift over the next couple hours to get a quick
accumulation of slushy snow, but will depend on whether those
flakes melt before reaching the ground or not. SPS was issued to
highlight this concern. Further north (in the warning and advisory
counties) all snow is expected this afternoon and early evening.

The dry slot evident on current satellite imagery will start
advecting into the area later this evening. This will clear out
some of the mid-level moisture and limit the potential for snow,
with any precipitation expected to transition over to freezing
drizzle for all but the far north. By this point there will not be
as much lift present, so expect any freezing drizzle to be light
and ice accumulations to be minimal. However, expect roads to
still be slippery in spots especially on bridges and untreated
roads.

Models in agreement that the precipitation comes to an end around
12Z in central Wisconsin and gradually pushes east of the entire
area by 18Z. Some cooler air filtering in behind the system may
briefly transition precip back to snow before departing. Dry
weather expected for Tuesday afternoon.

Temperatures will remain fairly steady through late this
afternoon then gradually fall overnight. Lows will be in the 20s.
Strong CAA will prevent temperatures from rising much on Tuesday,
perhaps only a couple degrees at many locations.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Monday
Issued at 334 PM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

Fairly quiet weather is anticipated through the period, with only
small precipitation chances associated with weak cold frontal
passages Friday night, and Saturday night into Sunday.

Temperatures will start off near normal for the beginning of the
period, warm to much above normal Friday into Saturday, then
drop back to near normal by early next week.
&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1149 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018

IFR/LIFR conditions to continue this afternoon. Moderate to heavy
snow now pushing through central Wisconsin and beginning to
reach north- central Wisconsin. Visibilities as low as 1/2 mile
are being reported in the heaviest snow. Visibility across east-
central Wisconsin will fluctuate more this afternoon due to rain
falling instead of snow. This evening precipitation type will
transition over to snow or light freezing drizzle across the
entire area. Precipitation will then end from west to east
throughout Tuesday morning which will lead to gradual improvements
to MVFR conditions. Winds will be gusty through the TAF period,
with LLWS expected at sites across central and north- central
Wisconsin.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for WIZ020-
022-031-035>037-074.

Winter Storm Warning until midnight CST tonight for WIZ005-
010>013-018-019-021-030-073.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM.....KLB
LONG TERM......Kieckbusch
AVIATION.......KLB


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